Accessible Version
Price-Setting During the Covid Era, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Median Frequency and Size of Price Changes
Line chart, the x-axis of the chart starts in January 2018 and ends in mid-2023. The left y-axis denotes percent changes, pertaining to CPI-U inflation (the solid green line) and to the average size line (the dotted black line), starts at zero and goes to a maximum of 10 percent. The right y-axis denotes the frequency or fraction of price changes, which pertains to the red dashed line, starts at 0.05 and goes to a maximum of 0.25. The inflation line fluctuates between slightly below and slightly above 2 percent before the pandemic, then drops below 1 percent before recovering slightly in the second half of 2020, and then increases sharply between early 2021 and mid-2022, at which point it reaches 9 percent before dropping steadily and ending near 3 percent. The size line shows sharper month-to-month fluctuations, and stays mostly below 2 percent until 2021, after which it increases and stays between 3 and 4 percent through mid-2022. The size line then falls sharply and fluctuates around 2 percent. The frequency line also shows month-month fluctuations, but generally increases gradually from 2018 to early 2020, when it reaches close to 0.1. Frequency then spikes soon after the pandemic starts and drops back down but remains slightly elevated at around 0.13 through early 2021, after which it increases more markedly reaching 0.2 in early 2022. The frequency line then drops steadily and ends slightly below 0.15. This figure highlights that both the frequency and size of price change increased when inflation increased starting in 2021 and then fell when inflation fell.
Note: Vertical dashed line marks the start of the pandemic period in February 2020.
Source: BLS and authors’ calculations
Figure 2. Median Frequency and Absolute Value of Price Changes
Line chart, the x-axis of the chart starts in January 2018 and ends in mid-2023. The left y-axis denotes percent changes, pertaining to CPI-U inflation (the solid green line) and to the absolute value of change line (the dotted black line), starts at zero and goes to a maximum of 10 percent. The right y-axis denotes the frequency or fraction of price changes, which pertains to the red dashed line, starts at 0.05 and goes to a maximum of 0.25. The inflation line fluctuates between slightly below and slightly above 2 percent before the pandemic, then drops below 1 percent before recovering slightly in the second half of 2020, and then increases sharply between early 2021 and mid-2022, at which point it reaches 9 percent before dropping steadily and ending near 3 percent. The absolute value of change line fluctuates between 6 and 8 percent before 2020 and then edges up slightly so that it mostly fluctuates between 7 and 8 percent thereafter, except for a temporary spike above 9 percent in early 2020. It drops slightly from late 2022 to mid-2023, ending at around 7 percent. The frequency line also shows month-month fluctuations, but generally increases gradually from 2018 to early 2020, when it reaches close to 0.1. Frequency then spikes soon after the pandemic starts and drops back down but remains slightly elevated at around 0.13 through early 2021, after which it increases more markedly reaching 0.2 in early 2022. The frequency line then drops steadily and ends slightly below 0.15. This figure highlights that the frequency of price change increased as inflation increased, but the absolute value of price change was very stable, in comparison.
Note: Vertical dashed line marks the start of the pandemic period in February 2020.
Source: BLS and authors’ calculations
Figure 3. Frequency of Price Changes, Increases and Decreases
Line chart, the x-axis of the chart starts in January 2018 and ends in mid-2023. The left y-axis denotes the frequency or fraction of price changes, which pertains to the thick black line (frequency of all changes), the blue dotted line (frequency of decreases) and red dashed line (frequency of price increases), starts at 0.05 and goes to a maximum of 0.25. The right y-axis denotes percent changes, pertaining to CPI-U inflation (the thin solid green line), starts at zero and goes to a maximum of 10 percent. The inflation line fluctuates between slightly below and slightly above 2 percent before the pandemic, then drops below 1 percent before recovering slightly in the second half of 2020, and then increases sharply between early 2021 and mid-2022, at which point it reaches 9 percent before dropping steadily and ending near 3 percent. The frequency line also shows month-month fluctuations, but generally increases gradually from 2018 to early 2020, when it reaches close to 0.1. Frequency then spikes soon after the pandemic starts and drops back down but remains slightly elevated at around 0.13 through early 2021, after which it increases more markedly reaching 0.2 in early 2022. The frequency line then drops steadily and ends slightly below 0.15. The frequency of increases (red dashed line) increases gradually from 2018 until around April 2021, going from 0.05 to 0.07. It then increases more rapidly and reaches around 0.14 in early 2022, before fluctuation slightly below 0.15 until late 2022 and then falling gradually going just below 0.1 in mid-2023. The frequency of decreases (blue dashed line) is quite stable and fluctuates slightly below 0.05 for the period shown. This figure highlights that it is the frequency of increases that rose when inflation and the frequency of all price changes rose, while the frequency of price decreases has changed very little.
Note: Vertical dashed line marks the start of the pandemic period in February 2020.
Source: BLS and authors’ calculations
Figure 4. Size of Price Changes, Increases and Decreases
Line chart, the x-axis of the chart starts in January 2018 and ends in mid-2023. The left y-axis denotes percent changes, which pertain to the dotted blue line (size of price decreases) and dashed red line (size of price increases) and starts at 7 and ends at 12. The right y-axis also denotes percent changes, pertaining to CPI-U inflation (the solid green line), and starts at 0 and goes to a maximum of 10. The inflation line fluctuates between slightly below and slightly above 2 percent before the pandemic, then drops below 1 percent before recovering slightly in the second half of 2020, and then increases sharply between early 2021 and mid-2022, at which point it reaches 9 percent before dropping steadily and ending near 3 percent. The size of increases (dashed red) line shows substantial month-to-month fluctuations, and generally moves around 8 percent, except for some temporary increases in 2020, late 2022 and early 2023. The size of decreases (dashed blue) line also shows substantial fluctuations, mostly between 9 and 10 percent. This figure highlights that the size of price decreases and increases both fluctuate considerably but have not shown a clear trend over the past several years.
Note: Vertical dashed line marks the start of the pandemic period in February 2020.
Source: BLS and authors’ calculations
Figure 5. Inflation Counterfactuals
Line chart, the x-axis of the chart starts in January 2018 and ends in mid-2023. The y-axis denotes percent changes and starts at -0.5 and ends at 2. The inflation (solid black) line trends down, with some fluctuation, between 2018 and early 2020, from around 0.2 to -0.5. It then rises sharply to around 0.5 in mid-2020 before coming back down, and then rises even more to over 1 percent in mid-2021. It then recedes somewhat to around 0.5, before rebounding again to around 1.3 in 2022 and then falls sharply in the second half of 2023 before rebounding slightly. The fixed frequency (dashed blue) line tracks the inflation line very closely, except for the middle of 2019 where it rises by less than the inflation line and in 2022 when it rises by more than inflation. The fixed size (dotted red) line is very smooth and increases very gradually, from around 0.2 in 2018 to around 0.3 in 2022. This figure highlights that the fixed frequency series tracks the inflation series very closely at almost all dates, while the fixed size series does not.
Note: Vertical dashed line marks the start of the pandemic period in February 2020.
Source: BLS and authors’ calculations
Figure 6. Price Change Dispersion
Line chart, the x-axis of the chart starts in January 2018 and in mid-2023. The left y-axis denotes percent changes, which pertain to the solid black line (standard deviation) and starts at 10 and goes to a maximum of 14. The right y-axis also denotes percent changes, pertaining to inter-quartile range or IQR (the dashed red line), and starts at 8 and goes to a maximum of 12. The standard deviation (solid black) line fluctuates significantly month to month between 10 and slightly above 13 percent. The line stays elevated through 2020 but then declines in 2021 to level similar to pre-2020, and then increases over 2022 before falling in late 2022 and early 2023. The IQR (solid red) line similarly shows a great deal of volatility and generally tracks the standard deviation line, except that it has larger upward spikes in late 2019 and early 2020. This figure highlights that both series are volatile and do not display much a trend over the period shown.
Note: Vertical dashed line marks the start of the pandemic period in February 2020.
Source: BLS and authors’ calculations