Accessible Version
Real Effects of Uncertainty: Evidence from Brexit, Accessible Data
Figure 1. U.K. Economic and Political Uncertainty
Monthly, 2013 = 100
| Period | U.K. EPU |
|---|---|
| 1/1/2013 | 167.041 |
| 2/1/2013 | 119.4612 |
| 3/1/2013 | 123.5237 |
| 4/1/2013 | 108.1274 |
| 5/1/2013 | 73.27667 |
| 6/1/2013 | 97.46981 |
| 7/1/2013 | 63.76774 |
| 8/1/2013 | 97.80031 |
| 9/1/2013 | 81.45824 |
| 10/1/2013 | 103.1889 |
| 11/1/2013 | 79.3492 |
| 12/1/2013 | 85.53591 |
| 1/1/2014 | 92.82644 |
| 2/1/2014 | 81.81801 |
| 3/1/2014 | 97.62725 |
| 4/1/2014 | 51.61635 |
| 5/1/2014 | 89.36116 |
| 6/1/2014 | 55.65398 |
| 7/1/2014 | 65.74924 |
| 8/1/2014 | 94.38499 |
| 9/1/2014 | 120.3074 |
| 10/1/2014 | 71.86657 |
| 11/1/2014 | 63.97959 |
| 12/1/2014 | 94.58585 |
| 1/1/2015 | 90.46281 |
| 2/1/2015 | 85.49338 |
| 3/1/2015 | 94.22099 |
| 4/1/2015 | 114.8756 |
| 5/1/2015 | 122.5101 |
| 6/1/2015 | 89.82938 |
| 7/1/2015 | 80.54738 |
| 8/1/2015 | 61.82569 |
| 9/1/2015 | 125.827 |
| 10/1/2015 | 69.96554 |
| 11/1/2015 | 93.6961 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.93171 |
| 1/1/2016 | 112.1463 |
| 2/1/2016 | 140.5562 |
| 3/1/2016 | 215.5224 |
| 4/1/2016 | 195.4161 |
| 5/1/2016 | 192.6734 |
| 6/1/2016 | 359.6795 |
| 7/1/2016 | 513.3928 |
| 8/1/2016 | 206.2413 |
| 9/1/2016 | 170.4007 |
| 10/1/2016 | 245.1036 |
| 11/1/2016 | 366.9942 |
| 12/1/2016 | 210.4394 |
| 1/1/2017 | 242.455 |
| 2/1/2017 | 200.5262 |
| 3/1/2017 | 188.2433 |
| 4/1/2017 | 150.8421 |
| 5/1/2017 | 211.448 |
| 6/1/2017 | 319.1266 |
| 7/1/2017 | 209.744 |
| 8/1/2017 | 198.5051 |
| 9/1/2017 | 205.8802 |
| 10/1/2017 | 218.4548 |
| 11/1/2017 | 233.814 |
| 12/1/2017 | 188.4422 |
| 1/1/2018 | 178.0059 |
| 2/1/2018 | 92.59314 |
| 3/1/2018 | 174.8755 |
| 4/1/2018 | 130.0465 |
| 5/1/2018 | 159.6458 |
| 6/1/2018 | 167.1372 |
| 7/1/2018 | 167.2842 |
| 8/1/2018 | 136.0428 |
| 9/1/2018 | 164.1016 |
| 10/1/2018 | 202.9605 |
| 11/1/2018 | 202.8632 |
| 12/1/2018 | 210.7655 |
| 1/1/2019 | 182.9604 |
| 2/1/2019 | 207.0056 |
| 3/1/2019 | 187.9398 |
| 4/1/2019 | 157.8115 |
| 5/1/2019 | 180.1014 |
| 6/1/2019 | 159.5495 |
Note: The Brexit referendum is marked at mid-2016 with a dotted line.
Source: Authors' calculations based on Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), accessed via www.policyuncertainty.com.
Figure 2. U.K. Real GDP Compared to Other G7
Figure 2a: Real GDP Growth Rates
4−quarter percent change
| Period | U.K. | G7 Upper Bound | G7 Lower Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 Q1 | 1.243948 | 2.883174 | -2.3447869 |
| 2012 Q2 | 1.06359 | 2.814677 | -3.21604379 |
| 2012 Q3 | 1.975796 | 2.528125 | -3.29148301 |
| 2012 Q4 | 1.630066 | 1.630066 | -3.21024997 |
| 2013 Q1 | 1.631097 | 1.631097 | -2.93555053 |
| 2013 Q2 | 2.25646 | 2.25646 | -2.17320829 |
| 2013 Q3 | 1.983905 | 3.121603 | -1.45394197 |
| 2013 Q4 | 2.683236 | 3.384447 | -0.85705221 |
| 2014 Q1 | 2.697911 | 2.92991 | 0.10266385 |
| 2014 Q2 | 2.820205 | 2.972572 | -0.15380894 |
| 2014 Q3 | 2.443546 | 3.119734 | -0.89480633 |
| 2014 Q4 | 2.47249 | 2.876855 | -0.35524194 |
| 2015 Q1 | 2.33791 | 3.978205 | 0.0130316 |
| 2015 Q2 | 2.396273 | 3.350027 | 0.54033354 |
| 2015 Q3 | 2.247674 | 2.441025 | 0.2193325 |
| 2015 Q4 | 2.438954 | 2.438954 | -0.39486917 |
| 2016 Q1 | 2.071682 | 2.330853 | 0.16730083 |
| 2016 Q2 | 1.886858 | 2.276612 | 0.20012911 |
| 2016 Q3 | 1.907935 | 2.026305 | 0.48663916 |
| 2016 Q4 | 1.808987 | 2.034066 | 1.14633563 |
| 2017 Q1 | 2.225809 | 2.346824 | 1.36889897 |
| 2017 Q2 | 1.941748 | 3.980447 | 1.87311862 |
| 2017 Q3 | 1.8298 | 3.286158 | 1.69876594 |
| 2017 Q4 | 1.576479 | 3.383192 | 1.57647943 |
| 2018 Q1 | 1.054383 | 2.861873 | 0.9285354 |
| 2018 Q2 | 1.331875 | 3.202294 | 0.91715474 |
| 2018 Q3 | 1.580999 | 3.133538 | -0.36110256 |
| 2018 Q4 | 1.3937 | 2.516496 | -0.25646915 |
| 2019 Q1 | 1.98311 | 2.652241 | 0.07393794 |
| 2019 Q2 | 1.338882 | 2.27832 | 0.23889966 |
Note: The Brexit referendum is marked at mid-2016 with a dotted line and 2013Q3:2016Q2 U.K. average marked at 2.37 before the Brexit referendum and 2016Q3:2019Q2 U.K. average at 1.66 after the Brexit referendum.
Source: Authors' calculations based on data from national statistics agencies, accessed via Haver Analytics.
Figure 2b: U.K. Real GDP
2016Q2 = 100
| Period | Actual | Implied by growth in other G7* | Upper confidence limit | Lower confidence limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Q1 | 99.47206 | |||
| 2016 Q2 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2016 Q3 | 100.4508 | 100.504 | 100.6097 | 100.3983 |
| 2016 Q4 | 101.1033 | 101.029 | 101.2423 | 100.816 |
| 2017 Q1 | 101.6861 | 101.8158 | 102.1631 | 101.4693 |
| 2017 Q2 | 101.9418 | 102.4383 | 102.9018 | 101.9763 |
| 2017 Q3 | 102.2888 | 103.2071 | 103.8047 | 102.6123 |
| 2017 Q4 | 102.6972 | 103.9841 | 104.7182 | 103.2543 |
| 2018 Q1 | 102.7547 | 104.4493 | 105.2965 | 103.6079 |
| 2018 Q2 | 103.3007 | 105.0729 | 106.0417 | 104.1119 |
| 2018 Q3 | 103.9446 | 105.5266 | 106.6109 | 104.4522 |
| 2018 Q4 | 104.276 | 105.9121 | 107.1141 | 104.7223 |
| 2019 Q1 | 104.8795 | 106.5148 | 107.84 | 105.2043 |
| 2019 Q2 | 104.6508 | 106.9566 | 108.4008 | 105.53 |
*Derived from regressing U.K. growth on export−weighted average growth in other G7 countries over 2000Q1:2016Q2. Gray shaded area is 95% confidence interval.
Note: The Brexit referendum is marked at mid-2016 with a dotted line
Source: Authors' calculations based on data from national statistics agencies, accessed via Haver Analytics.
Figure 3. Slowdown in U.K. GDP and its Components
Figure 3a: Changes in Growth Rates since the Brexit Referendum*
Percentage point (a.r.)
| Changes in Growth Rates since the Brexit Referendum* | |
|---|---|
| Private consumption | -1.2534905 |
| Business investment | -5.4001663 |
*Change in average quarterly growth rates in 2016Q3:2019Q2 relative to 2013Q3:2016Q2.
Source: Authors' calculations based on data from the Office for National Statistics, accessed via Haver Analytics.
Figure 3b: Contribution to Change in GDP Growth*
Percentage point (a.r.)
| Contribution to Change in GDP Growth* | |
|---|---|
| Private consumption | -0.78691645 |
| Business investment | -0.49145661 |
| Net exports | 0.39982965 |
| Other | 0.04857552 |
*Contribution to change in GDP growth in 2016Q3:2019Q2 relative to 2013Q3:2016Q2.
Source: Authors' calculations based on data from the Office for National Statistics, accessed via Haver Analytics.
Figure 4. Real Business Investment
2013Q1 = 100
| Period | U.K. | Other G7* |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 Q1 | 100 | 100 |
| 2013 Q2 | 102.6781 | 101.0363 |
| 2013 Q3 | 104.8581 | 101.9993 |
| 2013 Q4 | 104.6704 | 103.793 |
| 2014 Q1 | 106.3098 | 105.0622 |
| 2014 Q2 | 110.2142 | 106.1784 |
| 2014 Q3 | 109.8588 | 107.4326 |
| 2014 Q4 | 112.2666 | 108.0586 |
| 2015 Q1 | 116.7618 | 108.2143 |
| 2015 Q2 | 117.2674 | 108.2604 |
| 2015 Q3 | 116.7067 | 108.7396 |
| 2015 Q4 | 119.575 | 108.5519 |
| 2016 Q1 | 121.322 | 109.5417 |
| 2016 Q2 | 122.5259 | 109.6793 |
| 2016 Q3 | 124.5057 | 110.8365 |
| 2016 Q4 | 122.143 | 111.2205 |
| 2017 Q1 | 124.9187 | 112.8987 |
| 2017 Q2 | 126.3703 | 114.1281 |
| 2017 Q3 | 126.6532 | 115.2292 |
| 2017 Q4 | 126.9084 | 117.2124 |
| 2018 Q1 | 125.6145 | 118.5583 |
| 2018 Q2 | 124.8486 | 120.3171 |
| 2018 Q3 | 123.7999 | 120.6476 |
| 2018 Q4 | 122.5309 | 121.7824 |
| 2019 Q1 | 123.5471 | 123.1947 |
| 2019 Q2 | 123.0765 | 123.0114 |
*Constructed from trade weighted average real investment growth in other G7.
Note: The Brexit referendum (is) marked at mid-2016 with a dotted line
Source: Authors' calculations based on data from national statistics agencies, accessed via Haver Analytics.
Figure 5. VAR Impulse Responses to an Increase in EPU
| Quarters after the shock | EPU | FSI | FTSE | Exchange Rate | CPI | Real GDP | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower bound | Impulse Response | Upper bound | Lower bound | Impulse Response | Upper bound | Lower bound | Impulse Response | Upper bound | Lower bound | Impulse Response | Upper bound | Lower bound | Impulse Response | Upper bound | Lower bound | Impulse Response | Upper bound | |
| 0 | 18.3636 | 19.1895 | 20.3865 | 0.0151 | 0.0229 | 0.0346 | -2.1462 | -1.8495 | -1.4019 | -0.8212 | -0.6949 | -0.4901 | -0.0765 | -0.0587 | -0.0288 | -0.1622 | -0.1384 | -0.1024 |
| 1 | 17.0884 | 18.1214 | 20.3346 | 0.0055 | 0.0166 | 0.0294 | -2.1878 | -1.8278 | -1.1684 | -1.5996 | -1.4063 | -1.0909 | -0.1053 | -0.0803 | -0.0308 | -0.2199 | -0.1774 | -0.1121 |
| 2 | 13.4413 | 14.9468 | 17.4971 | -0.0098 | -0.0015 | 0.0132 | -2.1006 | -1.6175 | -0.8366 | -1.8847 | -1.6509 | -1.2461 | -0.1128 | -0.0796 | -0.023 | -0.3278 | -0.2688 | -0.176 |
| 3 | 10.1726 | 11.6065 | 14.3273 | -0.0157 | -0.0077 | 0.0068 | -2.3015 | -1.7919 | -0.9083 | -2.0812 | -1.7937 | -1.3456 | -0.1128 | -0.0729 | -0.004 | -0.4304 | -0.3488 | -0.2309 |
| 4 | 8.9812 | 10.2694 | 12.8594 | -0.0182 | -0.0111 | 0.0027 | -2.5746 | -2.0031 | -1.0877 | -2.1509 | -1.8482 | -1.354 | -0.121 | -0.0802 | 0.0011 | -0.528 | -0.4294 | -0.2923 |
| 5 | 7.9424 | 9.1488 | 11.8107 | -0.02 | -0.0132 | -0.0003 | -2.8427 | -2.1929 | -1.24 | -2.1657 | -1.8733 | -1.3543 | -0.1408 | -0.0885 | 0.0003 | -0.6061 | -0.5015 | -0.3315 |
| 6 | 6.9895 | 8.313 | 10.9522 | -0.0225 | -0.0154 | -0.0037 | -3.0416 | -2.3057 | -1.3286 | -2.2125 | -1.8899 | -1.32 | -0.1576 | -0.1042 | -0.0015 | -0.6776 | -0.55 | -0.3662 |
| 7 | 5.9914 | 7.419 | 10.1356 | -0.0252 | -0.0179 | -0.0068 | -3.1602 | -2.3969 | -1.3415 | -2.2303 | -1.8539 | -1.29 | -0.1823 | -0.1184 | -0.0049 | -0.7504 | -0.5913 | -0.3838 |
| 8 | 5.1957 | 6.6465 | 9.401 | -0.0283 | -0.0205 | -0.0097 | -3.1801 | -2.4455 | -1.3326 | -2.2387 | -1.8215 | -1.2267 | -0.2094 | -0.1337 | -0.0094 | -0.8017 | -0.6279 | -0.393 |
| 9 | 4.5204 | 5.9445 | 8.7347 | -0.0311 | -0.0221 | -0.0118 | -3.2253 | -2.4615 | -1.3016 | -2.2669 | -1.7837 | -1.1547 | -0.2322 | -0.1473 | -0.0174 | -0.8496 | -0.6612 | -0.3965 |
| 10 | 3.9046 | 5.2337 | 8.2071 | -0.0322 | -0.0238 | -0.0132 | -3.2289 | -2.4749 | -1.2569 | -2.2378 | -1.7351 | -1.0698 | -0.2594 | -0.1587 | -0.022 | -0.8738 | -0.6795 | -0.3941 |
| 11 | 3.3054 | 4.6465 | 7.6312 | -0.033 | -0.0249 | -0.0139 | -3.2658 | -2.3945 | -1.2026 | -2.2002 | -1.6789 | -0.9885 | -0.2818 | -0.1746 | -0.023 | -0.8994 | -0.6954 | -0.3975 |
| 12 | 2.7558 | 4.1312 | 7.0994 | -0.0332 | -0.0258 | -0.0144 | -3.326 | -2.3535 | -1.1362 | -2.1733 | -1.6098 | -0.9253 | -0.3029 | -0.1835 | -0.0251 | -0.9498 | -0.7118 | -0.3954 |
| 13 | 2.232 | 3.7218 | 6.6051 | -0.0335 | -0.0252 | -0.0143 | -3.3451 | -2.2841 | -1.0693 | -2.1713 | -1.5624 | -0.8624 | -0.3259 | -0.1941 | -0.0251 | -0.9801 | -0.7255 | -0.3859 |
| 14 | 1.7385 | 3.1788 | 6.1956 | -0.0336 | -0.0248 | -0.014 | -3.326 | -2.2482 | -0.9992 | -2.0799 | -1.5002 | -0.7983 | -0.346 | -0.2045 | -0.0218 | -0.9848 | -0.7418 | -0.3786 |
| 15 | 1.2618 | 2.6918 | 5.8244 | -0.0331 | -0.0243 | -0.0132 | -3.2934 | -2.208 | -0.9344 | -2.0549 | -1.4509 | -0.7375 | -0.3577 | -0.2156 | -0.0179 | -1.0015 | -0.7452 | -0.3709 |
| 16 | 0.7979 | 2.2934 | 5.4543 | -0.0322 | -0.0236 | -0.0123 | -3.2123 | -2.1509 | -0.867 | -1.988 | -1.4139 | -0.6803 | -0.3671 | -0.2218 | -0.0152 | -1.0333 | -0.7515 | -0.3653 |
| 17 | 0.4721 | 1.9625 | 5.1399 | -0.0308 | -0.0222 | -0.0115 | -3.204 | -2.0771 | -0.7979 | -1.9822 | -1.3532 | -0.6257 | -0.3773 | -0.2249 | -0.0116 | -1.0692 | -0.7637 | -0.3601 |
| 18 | 0.0278 | 1.561 | 4.801 | -0.0301 | -0.021 | -0.0105 | -3.1376 | -2.0533 | -0.7511 | -1.9662 | -1.3064 | -0.5813 | -0.3829 | -0.2295 | -0.0087 | -1.0826 | -0.7774 | -0.3568 |
| 19 | -0.3407 | 1.2306 | 4.4918 | -0.0286 | -0.0194 | -0.0093 | -3.1352 | -2.0012 | -0.7072 | -1.9749 | -1.2818 | -0.5463 | -0.3815 | -0.2339 | -0.0028 | -1.1213 | -0.788 | -0.3474 |
| 20 | -0.7177 | 0.9539 | 4.1556 | -0.0274 | -0.0183 | -0.0082 | -3.1209 | -1.9355 | -0.6536 | -1.9472 | -1.2372 | -0.5127 | -0.3903 | -0.2356 | 0.0005 | -1.1677 | -0.8051 | -0.3393 |
Figure 6. Quarterly EPU and its Effects on U.K. Real GDP
Figure 6a: U.K. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU)
Quarterly, 2013 = 100
| Period | U.K. EPU |
|---|---|
| 2013Q1 | 136.6753 |
| 2013Q2 | 92.95796 |
| 2013Q3 | 81.00876 |
| 2013Q4 | 89.35801 |
| 2014Q1 | 90.75723 |
| 2014Q2 | 65.54383 |
| 2014Q3 | 93.48055 |
| 2014Q4 | 76.81067 |
| 2015Q1 | 90.05906 |
| 2015Q2 | 109.0717 |
| 2015Q3 | 89.40004 |
| 2015Q4 | 79.19779 |
| 2016Q1 | 156.0749 |
| 2016Q2 | 249.2563 |
| 2016Q3 | 296.6783 |
| 2016Q4 | 274.1791 |
| 2017Q1 | 210.4081 |
| 2017Q2 | 227.1389 |
| 2017Q3 | 204.7098 |
| 2017Q4 | 213.5704 |
| 2018Q1 | 148.4915 |
| 2018Q2 | 152.2765 |
| 2018Q3 | 155.8095 |
| 2018Q4 | 205.5297 |
| 2019Q1 | 192.6352 |
| 2019Q2 | 165.8208 |
Note: The Brexit referendum (is) marked at mid-2016 with a dotted line
Source: Authors' calculations based on Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), accessed via www.policyuncertainty.com.
Figure 6b: Cumulative Effect of Uncertainty on Real GDP*
Percent
| Period | Cumulative effect of Uncertainty on Real GDP |
|---|---|
| 2016Q1 | 0 |
| 2016Q2 | -0.4132 |
| 2016Q3 | -0.6909 |
| 2016Q4 | -0.9581 |
| 2017Q1 | -1.1545 |
| 2017Q2 | -1.6786 |
| 2017Q3 | -1.8049 |
| 2017Q4 | -2.113 |
| 2018Q1 | -1.9408 |
| 2018Q2 | -2.1094 |
| 2018Q3 | -2.0348 |
| 2018Q4 | -2.217 |
| 2019Q1 | -2.1048 |
| 2019Q2 | -2.1058 |
*Uncertainty effects are estimated using a SVAR model of the U.K. economy with 7 variables: EPU, FSI, stock market index, term spreads, CPI, real GDP, and exchange rate.
Source: Authors' calculations based on data accessed via Haver Analytics and www.policyuncertainty.com.
Figure 7. Change in Investment Growth by U.K. Firms and Brexit Uncertainty
Percentage points
| Change in Investment Growth by U.K. Firms and Brexit Uncertainty | |
|---|---|
| High uncertainty | -2.8 |
| Low uncertainty | -0.1 |
Note: The bars show the change in investment growth between 2011Q3:2016Q2 and 2016Q3:2019Q2. High uncertainty firms are the ones citing Brexit as one of the top three sources of uncertainty, low uncertainty firms are the ones citing Brexit uncertainty as "not important" or as "one of many sources" in the Decision Maker Panel Survey.
Source: Authors' calculations based on the Bank of England's November 2019 Monetary Policy Report.
Figure 8. Changes in U.K. Investment and Employment Growths and EU Exposure through Exports
Figure 8a: Change in U.K. Investment Growth*
Percentage Point
| Industry | Total export exposure towards the EU (Percent) | Change in investment growth* | Weight (size of circles) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agri. | 12.652 | 2.911674 | 0.008217017 |
| Eng. & Vehicles | 27.9103 | -3.320771 | 0.040515174 |
| Real est. & buss. | 6.32679 | -2.98769 | 0.218868819 |
| Chemicals | 34.9329 | -7.238091 | 0.017025296 |
| Info. & Comm. | 9.06909 | -3.951376 | 0.054913364 |
| Constr. | 1.69321 | 7.27113 | 0.085918542 |
| Distr. Serv. | 10.6545 | -8.098558 | 0.099955973 |
| Education | 2.13839 | 3.839323 | 0.033489033 |
| Financial | 14.4117 | -2.141362 | 0.07405959 |
| Food & Bev. | 13.8049 | -9.686337 | 0.025376902 |
| Fuels & Oil | 20.4381 | 19.51724 | 0.006104132 |
| Health | 0.106071 | -1.036755 | 0.06649757 |
| Hotels & Rest. | 5.26777 | 8.577761 | 0.035447529 |
| Metals | 20.0672 | 1.150288 | 0.015821425 |
| Mining | 38.4966 | -12.35667 | 0.0101718 |
| Oth. Manuf. | 15.9439 | -4.297637 | 0.031201337 |
| Oth. Serv. | 0.86452 | 4.281633 | 0.081250021 |
| Textile | 42.8481 | 9.825024 | 0.003817983 |
| Trans. & Storage | 9.58844 | -2.050234 | 0.048770247 |
| Utilities | 3.7719 | -2.620618 | 0.042578246 |
*Change in quarterly growth rate in 2016Q3:2019Q2 relative to 2013Q3:2016Q2. Weighted by final demand. $$$ \Delta \text{INVG}_i = 1.05 - 0.27 \text{Exposure}_i + \varepsilon_i $$$
Source: Authors' calculations from industry-level Office for National Statistics data available at www.ons.gov.uk.
Figure 8b: Change in Employment Growth*
Panel B plots changes in employment growth rates since the referendum against export exposures towards the EU as of 2015 for 54 industries. Both measures are based on authors' calculations using publicly available data from the Office for National Statistics. The sizes of circles are proportional to final demand. The panel shows that there was no significant relationship between export exposures towards the EU and changes in employment growth rates since the referendum across industries.
*Change in quarterly growth rate in 2016Q3:2019Q2 relative to 2013Q3:2016Q2. Weighted by final demand. $$$ \Delta \text{EMPG}_i = -0.32\ 0.01\text{Exposure}_i + \varepsilon_i $$$
Source: Authors' calculations from industry-level Office for National Statistics data available at www.ons.gov.uk.
Figure 9. Changes in U.K. Employment and Investment Growths and EU Exposure through Workforce
Figure 9a: Change in U.K. Employment Growth
Percentage Point
| Industry | Share of EU nationals in the workforce (Percent) | Change in employment growth* | Weight (size of circles) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Admin. Serv | 9.578452 | -0.082542 | 0.060184645 |
| Agri. | 6.740116 | -0.4868885 | 0.008986461 |
| Info. & Comm. | 5.970082 | 0.5782265 | 0.056170468 |
| Construction | 7.825688 | -0.4346263 | 0.08484664 |
| Distr. Serv. | 6.405727 | -0.5488107 | 0.10345352 |
| Education | 4.005055 | -0.1972352 | 0.043328235 |
| Financial | 5.609222 | -0.8135109 | 0.079571883 |
| Health | 4.586501 | 0.0852307 | 0.065865588 |
| Hotels | 13.3702 | -0.7383533 | 0.036969648 |
| Mining | 4.891494 | 0.6503239 | 0.059024445 |
| Manufacturing | 10.10571 | -0.5102842 | 0.150211664 |
| Oth. Serv. | 5.259223 | -0.3410433 | 0.033284622 |
| Real Est. | 3.448557 | 0.5990429 | 0.099981592 |
| Tech. Serv. | 6.006446 | -0.2612389 | 0.066629272 |
| Trans. & Storage | 9.471502 | -0.9207041 | 0.051491318 |
*Change in quarterly growth rate in 2016Q3:2019Q2 relatrive to 2013Q3:2016Q2. Weighted by final demand. $$$ \Delta \text{EMPG}_i = 0.58 - 0.12\text{Exposure}_i + \varepsilon_i $$$
Source: Authors' calculations from industry-level Office for National Statistics data available at www.ons.gov.uk.
Figure 9b: Change in Investment Growth
Percentage Point
| Industry | Share of EU nationals in the workforce (Percent) | Change in investment growth* | Weight (size of circles) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agri. | 6.740116 | 2.911674 | 0.008577998 |
| Buss. Serv. | 5.438275 | -2.98769 | 0.216486933 |
| Info. & Comm. | 5.970082 | -3.951376 | 0.053617342 |
| Construction | 7.825688 | 7.27113 | 0.080990091 |
| Distr. Serv. | 6.405727 | -8.098558 | 0.098751229 |
| Education | 4.005055 | 3.839323 | 0.04135883 |
| Financial | 5.609222 | -2.141362 | 0.075955089 |
| Health | 4.586501 | -1.036755 | 0.062871788 |
| Hotels & Rest. | 13.3702 | 8.577761 | 0.03528926 |
| Mining & Utilities | 4.891494 | -5.279921 | 0.056341597 |
| Manufacturing | 10.10571 | -3.458227 | 0.143384067 |
| Oth. Serv. | 5.259223 | 4.281633 | 0.077224901 |
| Trans. & Storage | 9.471502 | -2.050234 | 0.049150875 |
*Change in quarterly growth rate in 2016Q3:2019Q2 relatrive to 2013Q3:2016Q2. Weighted by final demand. $$$ \Delta \text{INVG}_i = -3.98 + 0.38\text{Exposure}_i + \varepsilon_i $$$
Source: Authors' calculations from industry-level Office for National Statistics data available at www.ons.gov.uk.