Accessible Version

Residual Seasonality in Core Consumer Price Inflation: An Update Accessible Data

Figure 1: Core CPI Inflation

 

Real-Time Data
Annualized Percent Change

Year Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2003 0.94 1.25
2004 2.595 1.94
2005 2.23 2.105
2006 3.18 2.055
2007 2.255 2.595
2008 2.29 1.21
2009 2.285 1.31
2010 0.57 0.72
2011 2.49 1.97
2012 2.415 1.36
2013 1.84 1.595
2014 2.17 1.055
2015 2.31 1.87
2016 2.43 2
2017 1.295 2.235

Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

Current Vintage Data
Annualized Percent Change

Year Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2003 0.94 1.25
2004 2.49 2.04
2005 2.02 2.21
2006 3.08 2.15
2007 2.21 2.66
2008 2.13 1.4
2009 2.03 1.62
2010 0.28 1.04
2011 2.13 2.42
2012 1.96 1.84
2013 1.41 2.08
2014 1.77 1.47
2015 2.07 2.12
2016 2.34 2.08
2017 1.36 2.16

Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Figure 2: Core PCE Inflation

 

Real-Time Data
Annualized Percent Change

Year Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2003 0.585 1.105
2004 1.785 1.265
2005 2.035 1.925
2006 2.53 1.77
2007 1.935 2.375
2008 2.375 1.165
2009 1.82 1.39
2010 1.055 0.395
2011 2.24 1.58
2012 1.98 0.88
2013 1.21 1.195
2014 1.725 0.955
2015 1.63 1.245
2016 1.975 1.52
2017 1.37 1.68

Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

 

Current Vintage Data
Annualized Percent Change

Year Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2003 1.04 1.8
2004 2.46 1.84
2005 2.24 2.16
2006 2.75 1.69
2007 2.27 2.4
2008 2.11 0.6
2009 1.35 1.89
2010 0.99 0.81
2011 2.35 1.77
2012 1.98 1.44
2013 1.54 1.73
2014 1.66 1.26
2015 1.33 1.17
2016 2 1.71
2017 1.54 1.74

Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 3: Market-Based Core PCE Inflation

 

Real-Time Data
Annualized Percent Change

Year Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2003 0.875 1.12
2004 2.12 1.21
2005 1.905 1.55
2006 2.285 1.465
2007 1.86 2.08
2008 2.055 1.255
2009 2.23 1.07
2010 0.975 0.515
2011 2.255 1.67
2012 2.04 0.835
2013 1.345 0.995
2014 1.615 0.755
2015 1.385 1.18
2016 1.665 1.39
2017 1.02 1.245

Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

 

Current Vintage Data
Annualized Percent Change

Year Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2003 1.04 1.43
2004 2.26 1.6
2005 2.14 1.99
2006 2.67 1.6
2007 2.17 2.44
2008 2.25 1.69
2009 2.15 1.35
2010 0.78 0.68
2011 2.14 1.99
2012 1.74 1.06
2013 1.1 1.23
2014 1.27 0.95
2015 1.07 1.16
2016 1.67 1.43
2017 0.99 1.37

Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Last Update: February 12, 2019