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Rising Auto Loan Delinquencies and High Monthly Payments, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Auto Loan Delinquency Rates

Percent

Date Seasonally Adjusted Auto Loan Delinquency Rates
3/31/2000 3.274291988
6/30/2000 3.387343015
9/30/2000 3.404417889
12/31/2000 3.408442756
3/31/2001 3.632887558
6/30/2001 3.473531563
9/30/2001 3.604842564
12/31/2001 3.633978417
3/31/2002 3.612561053
6/30/2002 3.603202203
9/30/2002 3.619637396
12/31/2002 3.576931195
3/31/2003 3.533526632
6/30/2003 3.457541636
9/30/2003 3.131152412
12/31/2003 3.017376947
3/31/2004 2.986106233
6/30/2004 2.860869462
9/30/2004 2.987706723
12/31/2004 2.895969427
3/31/2005 2.8340928
6/30/2005 2.864526917
9/30/2005 2.813607786
12/31/2005 2.958700025
3/31/2006 3.059904598
6/30/2006 3.243229543
9/30/2006 3.346294583
12/31/2006 3.419373277
3/31/2007 3.415898601
6/30/2007 3.520767238
9/30/2007 3.671216817
12/31/2007 3.82953207
3/31/2008 4.01880109
6/30/2008 4.2393063
9/30/2008 4.355280213
12/31/2008 4.517268635
3/31/2009 4.571379523
6/30/2009 4.537461849
9/30/2009 4.533755696
12/31/2009 4.291807335
3/31/2010 4.07012439
6/30/2010 3.845786566
9/30/2010 3.559533228
12/31/2010 3.36986727
3/31/2011 3.257399343
6/30/2011 3.052136037
9/30/2011 3.002379604
12/31/2011 2.867034109
3/31/2012 2.725868952
6/30/2012 2.790087497
9/30/2012 2.724237317
12/31/2012 2.771806825
3/31/2013 2.806909878
6/30/2013 2.772065137
9/30/2013 2.795896223
12/31/2013 2.794916178
3/31/2014 2.865452613
6/30/2014 2.882132963
9/30/2014 2.931111655
12/31/2014 2.965937874
3/31/2015 2.896090467
6/30/2015 2.946893275
9/30/2015 3.024186938
12/31/2015 3.023262118
3/31/2016 3.0794797
6/30/2016 3.153612549
9/30/2016 3.085129837
12/31/2016 3.175590489
3/31/2017 3.086151076
6/30/2017 3.141048663
9/30/2017 3.167247455
12/31/2017 3.031032124
3/31/2018 3.053087515
6/30/2018 3.023032107
9/30/2018 2.945423273
12/31/2018 2.978564753
3/31/2019 2.979957218
6/30/2019 2.980833441
9/30/2019 3.02281519
12/31/2019 2.986827983
3/31/2020 3.012178351
6/30/2020 2.353934059
9/30/2020 2.316633208
12/31/2020 2.353871084
3/31/2021 2.332926635
6/30/2021 2.219477803
9/30/2021 2.3424152
12/31/2021 2.417651333
3/31/2022 2.635136737
6/30/2022 2.780281609
9/30/2022 2.939185007
12/31/2022 3.239180726
3/31/2023 3.271725143
6/30/2023 3.554502071
9/30/2023 3.598996737
12/31/2023 3.620377922
3/31/2024 3.787437264
6/30/2024 3.806592832

Note: Delinquency rate measures the fraction of balances that are at least 30 days past due, excluding severe derogatory loans. Data are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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Figure 2. Cumulative Delinquency

Percent

Quarters since Origination 2011-2019 Rates 2020 Rates 2021 Rates 2022 Rates 2023 Rates
0 0.0257184 0.0432499 0.0209482 0.025852 0.0062407
1 1.09002825 0.9190609 0.6781969 1.227972 1.223184
2 2.787660667 2.299969 2.076487 3.228633 3.156252
3 4.26545025 3.662342 3.38182 5.042584 4.849052
4 5.44296375 4.794563 4.496 6.240395 6.178329
5 6.50530775 5.603954 5.616727 7.537306 7.342227
6 7.5326985 6.473587 6.63795 8.700647  
7 8.46959225 7.321594 7.584546 9.720367  
8 9.15064775 7.988879 8.222156 10.54763  
9 9.718543 8.619092 8.937012 11.34043  
10 10.2865695 9.230769 9.551055    
11 10.849555 9.769849 10.12713    
12 11.334825 10.14056 10.57751    
13 11.69728 10.5051 11.03445    
14 12.0229425 10.88662      
15 12.3305625 11.17702      
16 12.546305 11.41644      
17 12.74479 11.60952      
18 12.9109375        
19 13.0739675        
20 13.1996475        
21 13.3298275        
22 13.72117333        
23 13.81197667        
24 13.88547667        

Note: For brevity, the figure only includes loans originated in Q1 of each year.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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Figure 3. Average Monthly Payment

Dollars

Credit Bins Monthly Payment - 2011 to 2019 Monthly Payment - 2020 Monthly Payment - 2021 Monthly Payment - 2022 Monthly Payment - 2023
<320 376.453309 401.2911765 422.0376569 452.9758065 499.1666667
340 382.4246981 410.0471698 428.1766234 484.6431818 510.9381443
360 389.5116809 414.7592267 436.4494015 475.0916104 521.6366158
380 390.9556836 416.7116844 439.1860921 499.7521912 562.2281818
400 392.1930098 426.4325872 463.111715 522.9054441 552.9569632
420 399.4578914 436.4403758 466.6783 527.7188755 573.1133596
440 401.3256306 437.2287031 473.7175238 544.7095575 583.4259195
460 401.3193796 439.7255261 478.7793321 546.6755214 576.8329075
480 402.329063 441.5203484 488.2510463 547.4862877 577.0813861
500 403.7667853 441.0621027 486.5554622 549.7839126 576.2556187
520 405.527044 438.9688939 482.0068744 547.7705248 573.7746325
540 405.154411 441.7688516 486.3321967 553.1659188 575.1044145
560 405.7604953 443.1840431 485.4119476 555.2181249 579.8988437
580 411.6968319 452.7658954 494.866464 565.5849817 589.2237293
600 418.3823899 463.9304411 506.7973423 577.4509395 601.3158861
620 414.3762385 463.8573399 508.1751089 574.4856241 596.1036007
640 412.4870731 463.0020316 508.1174959 574.7179924 598.2666227
660 412.7924569 463.2401658 510.6281476 578.354104 603.0425212
680 415.4243739 464.673337 511.6362347 580.703894 609.8372652
700 413.9369623 464.0594813 510.5132441 578.7873663 607.0797241
720 414.2784506 463.4856703 509.6344533 574.9230248 602.5241823
740 415.9533173 463.3007695 508.8596352 575.9383275 603.4649856
760 422.6589893 471.8160467 517.9592081 589.3553003 619.5258468
780 434.9205824 488.473132 533.7310602 611.6708801 645.8714771
800 427.4549701 481.1928125 521.3993085 593.4523216 629.0938406
820 427.417195 476.8860582 510.1967636 580.3681321 616.9360038
>820 443.764219 475.6132867 502.9588425 571.8436088 610.5789298

Note: Average monthly payment for new and used cars by 20 point credit score bin. Data for 2023 are through August.

Source: Experian Autocount.

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Figure 4. Average Loan Size and Interest Rate

Panel A: Average Loan Size
Thousands of dollars

Credit Bins Average Loan Size - 2011 to 2019 Average Loan Size - 2020 Average Loan Size - 2021 Average Loan Size - 2022 Average Loan Size - 2023
<320 13.24859697 14.03530294 15.03395397 17.01219758 19.61521528
340 14.05070869 14.60246981 15.93675584 17.87036591 19.02394845
360 14.77287415 15.1874504 16.43395103 17.96996046 19.90927878
380 15.07920165 15.59524962 16.77450539 19.19733147 22.47422091
400 15.28394318 16.47625612 18.15603321 21.05774069 22.72600242
420 15.89890209 17.17756661 18.55822657 21.69629679 23.94098688
440 15.93602729 17.33877551 19.06124511 22.88352607 24.84258388
460 15.85465329 17.59658864 19.44160637 22.89320884 24.41812956
480 16.1232885 17.89394832 20.09862054 23.08655005 24.28424676
500 16.39922355 17.95550607 20.19305654 23.29018124 24.11928567
520 16.72609027 17.9611314 20.17570364 23.52413592 24.10841877
540 17.13482402 18.65894042 20.92108215 24.28732976 24.53170024
560 17.76000252 19.40189174 21.57233699 25.20229013 25.38101031
580 18.92974027 20.89841113 23.10009472 26.81741304 26.7519226
600 20.55448967 22.95434383 25.23970276 28.95746289 28.509741
620 21.42538318 24.22491921 26.69699122 30.07763593 29.14801776
640 22.32941647 25.38585264 28.08753022 31.40266332 30.35929541
660 23.12155369 26.35762446 29.3942019 32.62503627 31.46855953
680 23.9998594 27.50663877 30.62799159 34.05407267 33.00719728
700 24.360487 28.19056636 31.31805665 34.78465251 33.69235113
720 24.61793086 28.56171572 31.71372047 35.01136572 33.91014389
740 24.73948996 28.67578886 31.72663314 35.17956857 34.12134536
760 24.96814848 29.12519348 32.14840827 35.81330656 34.85903548
780 25.38762343 29.93462864 32.86666464 36.7771799 36.05598131
800 24.50792254 29.03157924 31.56279012 35.01378061 34.39993284
820 23.94947358 28.06838411 30.09525522 33.24347037 32.78732203
>820 23.99656614 27.00502192 28.41592378 31.31456788 31.13675646

Panel B: Average Interest Rate
Percent

Credit Bins Loan Rate - 2011 to 2019 Loan Rate - 2020 Loan Rate - 2021 Loan Rate - 2022 Loan Rate - 2023
<320 20.88386894 21.87769697 21.34923423 21.07785714 21.12768116
340 20.70771561 21.2461583 20.52308108 21.58876168 21.77039568
360 19.78904988 21.26827712 20.78407615 20.99846154 21.82376252
380 19.29648811 20.48697017 20.13218814 20.36517069 20.67630975
400 18.45113458 19.84580347 19.5969 19.33128922 19.7535101
420 18.6814513 19.86956631 19.43652174 19.16160829 19.47344061
440 18.69267577 19.77061475 19.38991639 18.95863587 19.04841391
460 18.46919367 19.61329688 19.35746455 19.0084078 19.1440643
480 18.19997154 19.24930995 18.95348978 18.80761336 19.42300428
500 17.89277025 19.20353313 18.85740752 18.61619087 19.41999156
520 17.61893255 19.24172533 18.73669599 18.37774356 19.28816147
540 16.89665738 18.31343266 17.84982129 17.66084389 18.93998387
560 15.94193917 17.23396283 16.87427261 16.60161868 18.14634184
580 14.6082093 15.88187596 15.53555687 15.32733623 17.08566245
600 12.62286875 13.88663018 13.57148671 13.55459909 15.72733707
620 10.80172028 12.06740146 11.76256172 12.08350209 14.54507025
640 9.055277265 10.21544208 9.906476176 10.45407149 13.06904405
660 7.695788026 8.750579837 8.350764633 9.147351373 11.88593514
680 6.482889856 7.199827847 6.798134337 7.654183791 10.40371499
700 5.616466606 6.134590009 5.702003229 6.579002018 9.272058721
720 4.850431669 5.291306852 4.848640568 5.751240421 8.355852594
740 4.301871649 4.733916872 4.296673037 5.189938278 7.71140395
760 3.90233468 4.297710237 3.859310918 4.724325345 7.163025051
780 3.654770901 4.003322139 3.568693742 4.406984977 6.793232386
800 3.464704917 3.787788798 3.362723685 4.19349757 6.515394702
820 3.293747054 3.588613737 3.175722845 4.012715161 6.204859484
>820 3.13405447 3.399363329 3.00792834 3.838221439 5.891143461

Note: Average interest rate for new and used cars by 20 point credit score bin. Data for 2023 are through August. Source: Experian Autocount.

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Last Update: September 26, 2024