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Stuck at home? The drag of homeownership on earnings after job separation, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Average earnings after a separation
Left panel: SIPP 2004: Earning Losses – Baseline Model
The left panel of figure 2 shows the average quarterly earning changes for workers separated during the SIPP 2004 sample, for every quarter running from 2 quarters prior to be separated and up to 8 quarters after separation. The starker dotted line shows the change in earnings (in dollars) for workers that were homeowners at the time of the separation. For this sample of workers, the line is flat at about zero in quarters -2 and -1 relative to separation, drops steadily to about -8000 in the first quarter after separation, reaches about -4000 after 4 quarters, only slightly increasing to about -3000 by the 8th quarter. The lighter dotted line shows the changes for the workers that were renters at the time of the separation. For this sample of workers, the line is flat at about zero in quarters -2 and -1 relative to separation, drops to about -2000 in the first quarter after separation, and reaches about 0 after 4 quarters, where it remains until the 6 quarter, where it slightly starts falling back to about -2000 dollars by the 8th quarter. The grey bands around the dotted lines represent the 90 percent confident interval around the estimated changes.
Source: Authors’ calculations using SIPP 2004 data (U.S. Census Bureau)
Note: Shading represents 90 percent confidence interval
Right panel: SIPP 2008: Earning Losses – Baseline Model
The right panel of figure 2 shows the average log of quarterly earning changes for workers separated during the SIPP 2008 sample, for every quarter running from 2 quarters prior to separation and up to 12 quarters after separation. The starker dotted line shows the change in earnings (in dollars) for workers that were homeowners at the time of the separation. For this sample of workers, the line is flat at about zero in quarters -2 and -1 relative to separation, drops steadily to about -9000 in the first quarter after separation, reaches about -5000 after 4 quarters, increasing slightly thereafter and reaching about -4000 by the 12th quarter. The lighter dotted line shows the changes for the workers that were renters at the time of the separation. For this sample of workers, the line is flat at about zero in quarters -2 and -1 relative to separation, drops steady to about -6000 in the first quarter after separation, and reaches about -3000 after 4 quarters, where it remains until the 6 quarter, and keeps an upward trend to reach about -2000 by the 12th quarter after separation. The grey bands around the dotted lines represent the 90 percent confident interval around the estimated changes.
Source: Authors’ calculations using SIPP 2008 data (U.S. Census Bureau)
Note: Shading represents 90 percent confidence interval
Figure 2. Average log earnings after a separation
Left panel: SIPP 2004: Log Earning Losses – Baseline Model
The left panel of figure 2 shows the average log of quarterly earning changes for workers separated during the SIPP 2004 sample, for every quarter running from 2 quarters prior to be separated and up to 8 quarters after separation. The starker dotted line shows the change in earnings (in percentages) for workers that were homeowners at the time of the separation. For this sample of workers, losses start about 0 percent during the two quarters prior to separation, fall to about -50 percent at the time of separation, and progressively recovers up to about -20 percent after 8 quarters. The lighter dotted line shows the changes for the workers that were renters at the time of the separation. For this group of workers, losses start about 0 percent during the two quarters prior to separation, increase slightly to about 10 percent (non-significant) the quarter following the separation, and plateaus about 0 percent thereafter. The grey bands around the dotted lines represent the 90 percent confident interval around the estimated changes.
Source: Authors’ calculations using SIPP 2004 data (U.S. Census Bureau)
Note: Shading represents 90 percent confidence interval
Right panel: SIPP 2008: Log Earning Losses – Baseline Model
The right panel of figure 2 shows the average log of quarterly earning changes for workers separated during the SIPP 2008 sample, for every quarter running from 2 quarters prior to separation and up to 12 quarters after separation. The starker dotted line shows the change in earnings (in percentages) for workers that were homeowners at the time of the separation. For this sample of workers, losses start about 0 percent during the two quarters prior to separation, fall to about -80 percent at the time of separation, and progressively recovers up to about -30 percent after 8 quarters. The lighter dotted line shows the changes for the workers that were renters at the time of the separation. For this group of workers, losses start about 0 percent during the two quarters prior to separation; fall to about -70 percent the quarter following the separation, recovers to about -20 percent after 4 quarters, plateauing about -15 percent thereafter. The grey bands around the dotted lines represent the 90 percent confident interval around the estimated changes.
Source: Authors’ calculations using SIPP 2008 data (U.S. Census Bureau)
Note: Shading represents 90 percent confidence interval
Figure 3. Earnings losses: pooled sample
The figure on the left is a line graph of the earnings losses in dollars for workers who lose their jobs plotted over the two quarters before separation, the quarter of separation, and the twelve quarters after separation relative to workers who did not lost their jobs. The solid black line represents workers who lived in states in which the house price decline was below the 25th percentile of the distribution. The line is flat at about zero in quarters -2 and -1 relative to separation, drops steadily to about -6000 in the first quarter after separation, then rises to about -700 in the 11th quarter after separation, and finally falls to about -1900 in the 12th quarter after separation. The black dashed line represents workers who lived in states in which the house price decline was below the 50th percentile of the distribution. The line is flat at about zero in quarters -2 and -1, drops steadily to about -7000 in the first quarter after separation, then increases to about -2500 by the 12th quarter after separation. The black dotted line represents workers who lived in states in which the house price decline was above the 75th percentile of the distribution. The line is flat at about zero in quarters -2 and -1, drops steadily to about -9000 in the first quarter after separation, then increases to about -4000 by the 12th quarter after separation.
Source: Authors’ calculations using SIPP 2008 data (U.S. Census Bureau).
The figure on the right is a scatterplot with peak to trough change in the unemployment rate on the vertical axis and the peak to trough change in house price on the horizontal axis. Each point on the scatterplot represents a state. The points line up with a negative correlation from Nevada in the top left, at about 10 percentage point increase in unemployment rate and -60 percent decline in house prices, to North Dakota in the bottom right, at about 1.5 percentage point increase in unemployment rate and -2 percent decline in house prices.
Source: Corelogic (2018), “House prices,” webpage, https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/corelogic-peak-totrough-final-030118.pdf Bureau of Labor Statistics.