The Effects of the COVID-19 Shutdown on the Consumer Credit Card Market: Revolvers versus Transactors, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Change in Credit Card Balances Outstanding

This is a line chart with 3 lines. The x-axis measures time and ranges from January 2019 to June 2020. The y-axis is the annual percent change in credit card balances outstanding. The three lines plot the percent change in seasonally adjusted credit card balances from the Y-14M, the percent change in not seasonally adjusted credit card balances from the Y-14M, and the percent change in seasonally adjusted revolving debt from the G.19. The three lines track each other very closely starting in April 2020. All three lines decrease sharply in April of 2020 to below negative 60 percent, before rebounding through June. All three lines remain slightly negative in June.

Note: The percent change is at an annual rate. Percent changes in July and August 2019 are interpolated because of a data issue.

Source: FR-Y14M.

Return to text

Figure 2. Total Credit Card Balances

This is a stacked bar chart that decomposes total credit card balances into three components: revolving balances, net new purchase volume, and other charges. The x-axis measures time in months from January to June 2020, and the y-axis is in billions of dollars. Total credit card balances are approximately $600 from January to March. Total credit card balances decline about $36 billion April and continue to decline slightly in May and June. The component of credit card balances that is revolving balances stays approximately flat between January and April, before declining $18 billion in both May and June. Net purchase volume decreases $33 billion in April, before increasing approximately $8 billion in May and $11 billion in June. The other charges component of credit card balances is very small (less than $10 billion) in every month and decreases even further in May.

Note: Net purchase volume is new consumer purchases using credit cards less any prepayment of these purchases. Revolving balance is the previous statement balance minus any payments. Other charges are finance charges, fees, and other charges posted to the account.

Source: FR-Y14M.

Return to text

Figure 3. Revolver and Transactor Accounts

This chart contains 3 panels.

Panel A shows, for each month between January 2019 and June 2020, the credit card balances outstanding by account category. The three account categories are heavy revolver accounts, light revolver accounts, and transactor accounts. Credit card balances for heavy revolver accounts are slightly above $400 billion each month. Credit card balances for light revolver accounts are approximately $100 billion each month, and credit card balances for transactor accounts are approximately $50 each month. Credit card balances for all three types of accounts decrease in April and May. In June, heavy and light revolver account balances continue to decrease slightly, whereas transactor account balances increase $4 billion.

Panel B shows, for each month between January 2019 and June 2020, the purchase volume by account category. The three account categories are heavy revolver accounts, light revolver accounts, and transactor accounts. Purchase volume for transactor and light revolver accounts ranges from $60 to $70 billion from January 2019 to March 2020. Purchase volume for transactor accounts ranges from $35 to $50 billion from January 2019 to March 2020. In April of 2020, purchase volume drops sharply to below $50 billion for transactor and light revolver accounts and to below $30 billion for heavy revolver accounts. From April to June 2020, purchase volume increases steadily for all three types of accounts. In June 2020, purchase volume is slightly below $60 billion for transactor and light revolver accounts and slightly below $40 billion for heavy revolver accounts.

Panel C shows, for each month between January 2019 and June 2020, finance charges by account category. The three account categories are heavy revolver accounts, light revolver accounts, and transactor accounts. Finance charges for heavy revolvers range from approximately $6 to $6.5 billion from January 2019 to February 2020. Finance charges for light revolvers are less than $0.75 billion from January 2019 to February 2020, and finance charges for transactor accounts are approximately zero. From February to March 2020, finance charges for heavy revolvers decrease from more than $6.5 billion to less than $6 billion and finance charges for light revolvers decrease from approximately $0.6 to less than $0.5 billion. From March to June 2020, finance charges in both categories decrease smoothly. In June 2020, finance charges for heavy revolver were slightly more than $5.5 billion and finance charges for light revolvers were approximately $0.4 billion.

Source: FR-Y14M.

Return to text

Figure 4. Purchase Volume Growth, by Income

Figure 4 contains 2 panels.

Panel A shows the growth in average purchase volume from Feburary to April of 2020, by income category. The x-axis is income category. The first category is less than $20,000. The second category is $20,000 to $40,000. The categories increase in increments of $20,000 until $100,000. Then, they are increments of $50,000 until the category $200,000-$250,000. The last category is income more than $250,000. The y-axis shows the percent change in average purchase volume. The figure displays two lines, labelled as revolver accounts and transactor accounts. Both lines have negative slope and decrease from higher income categories to lower income categories. The average purchase volume growth is higher for revolver accounts than transactor accounts for the first 2 income categories. Purchase volume for revolver accounts is approximately -15 percent for these categories, and purchase volume growth for transactor accounts is less than -20 percent. The average purchase volume growth is lower for revolver accounts than transactor accounts for the last 2 income categories. The average purchase volume growth for revolvers is approximately -35 percent and the average purchase volume growth for transactors is approximately -30 percent for these categories. For the middle categories, the purchase volume growth is approximately the same for both lines.

Note: Growth in average purchase volume from Feburary to April. Income is measured as of January 2020.

Source: FR-Y14M.

Panel B shows the growth in average purchase volume from April to June of 2020, by income category. The x-axis is income category. The first category is less than $20,000. The second category is $20,000 to $40,000. The categories increase in increments of $20,000 until $100,000. Then, they are increments of $50,000 until the category $200,000-$250,000. The last category is income more than $250,000. The y-axis shows the percent change in average purchase volume. The figure displays two lines, labelled as revolver accounts and transactor accounts. The purchase volume growth for transactor accounts is approximately flat across income categories, at approximately 17 percent. Average purchase volume growth is higher for revolver accounts than transactor accounts at each income category. Average purchase volume growth for revolver accounts increases across income categories from slightly less than 25 percent for the lower income categories to almost 35 percent for the higher income categories.

Note: Growth in average purchase volume from April to June. Income is measured as of January 2020.

Source: FR-Y14M.

Return to text

Figure 5. Purchase Volume Growth, by Credit Score

Figure 5 contains 2 panels.

Panel A shows the growth in average purchase volume from February to April of 2020, by credit score category. The x-axis is credit score category. The first category is credit score less than 560. The second category is 560-600. The categories increase in increments of 40, until the last category of credit score greater than 840. The y-axis shows the percent change in average purchase volume. The figure displays two lines, labelled as revolver accounts and transactor accounts. Both lines have negative slope and decrease from higher credit score categories to lower credit score categories. For the lowest two credit score categories, average purchase volume is the same for the two types of accounts. For categories 600-640 through 680-720, purchase volume growth for revolver accounts is slightly higher than that for transactor accounts. For categories higher than 720, purchase volume growth is lightly higher for transactor accounts than revolver accounts. Average purchase volume growth for revolver accounts declines steadily from almost 5 percent for the <560 category to almost -30 percent for the >840 category. Average purchase volume growth for transactor accounts declines from almost 5 percent for the <560 category to less than 20 percent for the 640-680 category. Then, it declines only slightly to -25 percent for the >840 category.

Note: Growth in average purchase volume from February to April. Credit score is measured as of January 2020.

Source: FR-Y14M.

Panel B shows the growth in average purchase volume from April to June of 2020, by credit score category. The x-axis is credit score category. The first category is credit score less than 560. The second category is 560-600. The categories increase in increments of 40, until the last category of credit score greater than 840. The y-axis shows the percent change in average purchase volume. The figure displays two lines, labelled as revolver accounts and transactor accounts. Average purchase volume growth for transactors is 15 percent for the <560 category, just so 25 percent for the 560-600 category and declines to 12 percent for the 600-640 category. From there, it rises slowly across categories back up to 15 percent for the >840 category. Average purchase volume for revolvers is higher than that for transactors across all credit score category. Average purchase volume for revolvers is approximately 30 percent for the lowest three categories before dropping to 20 percent of the 680-720 category. From there, it rises slowly across categories back up to almost 30 percent for the >840 category.

Note: Growth in average purchase volume from April to June. Credit score is measured as of January 2020.

Source: FR-Y14M.

Return to text

Figure 6. Payments in Excess of Minimum

Figure 6 contains three panels.

Panel A is a line chart with two lines. The x-axis measures time in months from January 2019 to June 2020. There are two lines—one for payments in excess of the minimum by heavy revolvers and one for payments in excess of the minimum for light revolvers. Both lines exhibit seasonal variation. Payments by heavy revolvers exhibit peaks at approximately 11.5 percent in March of 2019 and 2020, and a smaller peak of about 11.2 percent in August 2019. Between the peaks, the line gradually subsides to between 10.5 and 10.7 percent. After reaching the March 2020 peak, payments drop sharply to 10.7 percent in April 2020, before rebounding to almost 11 percent in May and declining only slightly in June. Payments by light revolvers are much higher, at approximately 35 percent, with some volatility, through March 2020. In April 2020, payments declined to 33 percent and remained between 33 and 34 percent through June.

Panel B is a line chart with two lines showing payments by heavy revolvers eligible and ineligible for the CARES Act stimulus payment. The x-axis measures time in months from January 2019 to June 2020. Both lines are exhibit seasonal variation with peaks in March of 2019 and 2020, and a smaller peak in August 2019. The March 2020 peak corresponds to payments of more than 9.5 percent for heavy revolvers eligible for the stimulus and more than 13.5 percent for heavy revolvers ineligible for the stimulus. In April 2020, both lines decline sharply and then diverge. Payments for heavy revolvers eligible for the stimulus declines to less than 9 percent but then jumps to more than 9.5 percent again in May and declines only slightly in June, at approximately the same level as the March peak. Payments for heavy revolvers ineligible for the stimulus decline in April to 12 percent, then increase slightly in May and June but remain at approximately 12.5 percent, much lower than the March peak.

Panel C is a line chart with two lines showing payments by light revolvers eligible and ineligible for the CARES Act stimulus payment. The x-axis measures time in months from January 2019 to June 2020. Payments for light revolvers eligible for the stimulus decline from a peak of 32 percent in August 2019 to about 29 percent in March 2019. Payments then decline to 28 percent, the lowest in the figure, in April 2020, before rebounding above 29 percent in May. In June, payments for light revolvers eligible for the stimulus decline again to about 28.5 percent. Payments for light revolvers ineligible or the stimulus are volatile, increasing 39 percent in January 2019 to almost 42 percent in April 2019, then declining slightly before increasing again to reach a peak of 43 percent in August 2019. After declining to 41 percent, the line reaches another peak in January 2020 and remains at approximately 43 percent through March 2020. Payments then plunge to 39 percent in April, and decline gradually to almost 38 percent through June.

Note: Payments in excess of minimum due are shown as a percentage of previous statement balances for borrowers with a revolving balance in the previous month. Eligible for full stimulus are borrowers with reported individual (household) income of less than $75,000 ($150,000). Ineligible are borrowers with individual (household) income of more than $100,000 ($200,000).

Source: FR-Y14M.

Return to text

Last Update: October 21, 2020