Accessible Version

The Restrained Recovery of State and Local Government Payrolls from the Pandemic Recession, Accessible Data

Figure 1. State and Local Government Payrolls

Payrolls (millions)

Date S&L Payrolls Pre-Pandemic Trend Pre-Pandemic Peak
1/1/2000 17.8183 NA 19.9693
4/1/2000 17.8923 NA 19.9693
7/1/2000 17.9613 NA 19.9693
10/1/2000 18.0297 NA 19.9693
1/1/2001 18.1420 NA 19.9693
4/1/2001 18.2883 NA 19.9693
7/1/2001 18.4373 NA 19.9693
10/1/2001 18.5610 NA 19.9693
1/1/2002 18.6433 NA 19.9693
4/1/2002 18.7383 NA 19.9693
7/1/2002 18.7973 NA 19.9693
10/1/2002 18.7957 NA 19.9693
1/1/2003 18.8303 NA 19.9693
4/1/2003 18.8277 NA 19.9693
7/1/2003 18.8110 NA 19.9693
10/1/2003 18.8097 NA 19.9693
1/1/2004 18.8273 NA 19.9693
4/1/2004 18.8720 NA 19.9693
7/1/2004 18.8933 NA 19.9693
10/1/2004 18.9540 NA 19.9693
1/1/2005 19.0103 NA 19.9693
4/1/2005 19.0353 NA 19.9693
7/1/2005 19.1247 NA 19.9693
10/1/2005 19.1200 NA 19.9693
1/1/2006 19.1450 NA 19.9693
4/1/2006 19.1880 NA 19.9693
7/1/2006 19.2870 NA 19.9693
10/1/2006 19.3497 NA 19.9693
1/1/2007 19.3937 NA 19.9693
4/1/2007 19.4603 NA 19.9693
7/1/2007 19.4913 NA 19.9693
10/1/2007 19.5910 NA 19.9693
1/1/2008 19.6703 NA 19.9693
4/1/2008 19.7263 NA 19.9693
7/1/2008 19.7903 NA 19.9693
10/1/2008 19.7800 NA 19.9693
1/1/2009 19.7790 NA 19.9693
4/1/2009 19.7580 NA 19.9693
7/1/2009 19.6773 NA 19.9693
10/1/2009 19.6743 NA 19.9693
1/1/2010 19.6100 NA 19.9693
4/1/2010 19.5707 NA 19.9693
7/1/2010 19.4570 NA 19.9693
10/1/2010 19.4160 NA 19.9693
1/1/2011 19.3460 NA 19.9693
4/1/2011 19.2920 NA 19.9693
7/1/2011 19.1637 NA 19.9693
10/1/2011 19.1317 NA 19.9693
1/1/2012 19.1157 NA 19.9693
4/1/2012 19.0997 NA 19.9693
7/1/2012 19.0990 NA 19.9693
10/1/2012 19.0780 NA 19.9693
1/1/2013 19.0713 NA 19.9693
4/1/2013 19.0777 NA 19.9693
7/1/2013 19.0710 NA 19.9693
10/1/2013 19.0890 NA 19.9693
1/1/2014 19.0923 NA 19.9693
4/1/2014 19.1317 NA 19.9693
7/1/2014 19.1507 NA 19.9693
10/1/2014 19.1927 NA 19.9693
1/1/2015 19.2227 NA 19.9693
4/1/2015 19.2540 NA 19.9693
7/1/2015 19.2917 NA 19.9693
10/1/2015 19.3110 NA 19.9693
1/1/2016 19.3660 NA 19.9693
4/1/2016 19.3963 NA 19.9693
7/1/2016 19.4957 NA 19.9693
10/1/2016 19.4863 NA 19.9693
1/1/2017 19.5120 NA 19.9693
4/1/2017 19.5437 NA 19.9693
7/1/2017 19.5367 NA 19.9693
10/1/2017 19.5790 NA 19.9693
1/1/2018 19.6147 NA 19.9693
4/1/2018 19.6613 NA 19.9693
7/1/2018 19.6577 NA 19.9693
10/1/2018 19.6803 NA 19.9693
1/1/2019 19.7353 NA 19.9693
4/1/2019 19.7563 NA 19.9693
7/1/2019 19.7547 NA 19.9693
10/1/2019 19.8653 NA 19.9693
1/1/2020 19.9693 NA 19.9693
4/1/2020 18.6960 20.0038 19.9693
7/1/2020 18.7507 20.0383 19.9693
10/1/2020 18.7857 20.0729 19.9693
1/1/2021 18.9317 20.1075 19.9693
4/1/2021 19.0597 20.1422 19.9693
7/1/2021 19.1820 20.1769 19.9693
10/1/2021 19.1663 20.2117 19.9693
1/1/2022 19.2030 20.2466 19.9693
4/1/2022 19.2477 20.2815 19.9693
7/1/2022 19.3513 20.3165 19.9693
10/1/2022 19.4330 20.3516 19.9693
1/1/2023 19.6110 20.3867 19.9693
4/1/2023 19.7420 20.4218 19.9693

Note: For the pre-pandemic trend line, we assume that, after February 2020, S&L payrolls continued to grow by 11,000 per month, their average monthly pace from 2015 to 2019. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 2007-June 2009 and February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and author calculations.

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Figure 2. State and Local Government Budget Position Indicators

Percent of GDP

Date Net Assets Net Saving Counterfactual Net Saving
12/31/1946 NA NA NA
3/31/1947 NA 0.034955833 NA
6/30/1947 NA 0.060166396 NA
9/30/1947 NA 0.044251136 NA
12/31/1947 NA 0.026258478 NA
3/31/1948 NA -0.01371378 NA
6/30/1948 NA -0.029463064 NA
9/30/1948 NA -0.026568849 NA
12/31/1948 NA 0.023964744 NA
3/31/1949 NA 0.10819149 NA
6/30/1949 NA 0.14396362 NA
9/30/1949 NA 0.19714582 NA
12/31/1949 NA 0.183287844 NA
3/31/1950 NA 0.127979815 NA
6/30/1950 NA 0.062334448 NA
9/30/1950 NA 0.064242654 NA
12/31/1950 NA 0.097398356 NA
3/31/1951 NA 0.229177222 NA
6/30/1951 NA 0.365926087 NA
9/30/1951 NA 0.404797882 NA
12/31/1951 -0.247067466 0.461359173 NA
3/31/1952 -0.993968904 0.458416462 NA
6/30/1952 -1.500618815 0.434927434 NA
9/30/1952 -1.102075577 0.480124563 NA
12/31/1952 -1.388249397 0.509291589 NA
3/31/1953 -1.286554098 0.492956072 NA
6/30/1953 -1.020296216 0.585659742 NA
9/30/1953 -1.002781987 0.589029431 NA
12/31/1953 -0.99476403 0.598378301 NA
3/31/1954 -0.969536841 0.644415855 NA
6/30/1954 -1.021175027 0.597597659 NA
9/30/1954 -0.997371316 0.564096034 NA
12/31/1954 -1.042704701 0.52250731 NA
3/31/1955 -1.036777377 0.470865697 NA
6/30/1955 -0.976864517 0.45384261 NA
9/30/1955 -0.895832002 0.481939971 NA
12/31/1955 -0.775508642 0.511400402 NA
3/31/1956 -0.722830355 0.571515739 NA
6/30/1956 -0.697351336 0.626425743 NA
9/30/1956 -0.698362291 0.653850257 NA
12/31/1956 -0.731607676 0.664744377 NA
3/31/1957 -0.777588964 0.678375542 NA
6/30/1957 -0.867107391 0.654130638 NA
9/30/1957 -0.998696506 0.614241719 NA
12/31/1957 -1.073256612 0.560052991 NA
3/31/1958 -1.226103425 0.436692983 NA
6/30/1958 -1.222966909 0.33400172 NA
9/30/1958 -1.241457462 0.249344751 NA
12/31/1958 -1.223434806 0.243375033 NA
3/31/1959 -1.086872101 0.254148245 NA
6/30/1959 -0.976622045 0.301604569 NA
9/30/1959 -1.071264029 0.373403758 NA
12/31/1959 -0.91424036 0.399547666 NA
3/31/1960 -0.78601402 0.455339551 NA
6/30/1960 -0.699311733 0.4760966 NA
9/30/1960 -0.620579064 0.472434282 NA
12/31/1960 -0.703340292 0.46401456 NA
3/31/1961 -0.79042834 0.437294275 NA
6/30/1961 -0.764774442 0.407684684 NA
9/30/1961 -0.791076958 0.397876203 NA
12/31/1961 -0.749337375 0.390048563 NA
3/31/1962 -0.714374065 0.412825197 NA
6/30/1962 -0.717344701 0.446581483 NA
9/30/1962 -0.588832557 0.481119454 NA
12/31/1962 -0.601311147 0.505010307 NA
3/31/1963 -0.441542834 0.507419288 NA
6/30/1963 -0.518657982 0.513020277 NA
9/30/1963 -0.487727404 0.51334095 NA
12/31/1963 -0.487476379 0.513752162 NA
3/31/1964 -0.562028289 0.545696557 NA
6/30/1964 -0.53856647 0.565138161 NA
9/30/1964 -0.559409499 0.569980979 NA
12/31/1964 -0.505078435 0.573030412 NA
3/31/1965 -0.471188694 0.542814851 NA
6/30/1965 -0.43089664 0.525862753 NA
9/30/1965 -0.406895816 0.504407465 NA
12/31/1965 -0.372880518 0.493718028 NA
3/31/1966 -0.347621143 0.52072084 NA
6/30/1966 -0.326503396 0.548586547 NA
9/30/1966 -0.426045924 0.575922966 NA
12/31/1966 -0.527580976 0.581573248 NA
3/31/1967 -0.573743105 0.569959581 NA
6/30/1967 -0.60525316 0.533024609 NA
9/30/1967 -0.661430478 0.483315051 NA
12/31/1967 -0.643488884 0.466751456 NA
3/31/1968 -0.607995629 0.426265538 NA
6/30/1968 -0.514463365 0.424093723 NA
9/30/1968 -0.434236079 0.408868313 NA
12/31/1968 -0.497542262 0.369620353 NA
3/31/1969 -0.65461278 0.343635023 NA
6/30/1969 -0.779915512 0.302367508 NA
9/30/1969 -0.909561038 0.303630203 NA
12/31/1969 -0.808996439 0.306744069 NA
3/31/1970 -0.640712857 0.3075881 NA
6/30/1970 -0.603957474 0.286855698 NA
9/30/1970 -0.52757585 0.232035086 NA
12/31/1970 -0.917759597 0.13605018 NA
3/31/1971 -1.097968102 0.025424857 NA
6/30/1971 -1.098035336 -0.05532084 NA
9/30/1971 -1.068097591 -0.122532643 NA
12/31/1971 -0.821669042 -0.110920109 NA
3/31/1972 -0.596510351 -0.064288229 NA
6/30/1972 -0.452739865 0.142130062 NA
9/30/1972 -0.21968779 0.181252792 NA
12/31/1972 0.061208837 0.465977639 NA
3/31/1973 0.255805939 0.621585965 NA
6/30/1973 0.427366704 0.545811594 NA
9/30/1973 0.432518274 0.619336367 NA
12/31/1973 0.412658006 0.395908237 NA
3/31/1974 0.313745618 0.247539967 NA
6/30/1974 0.193837762 0.132572442 NA
9/30/1974 0.001145467 0.025443856 NA
12/31/1974 -0.418933511 -0.145601302 NA
3/31/1975 -0.554571509 -0.351211965 NA
6/30/1975 -0.628628552 -0.502849698 NA
9/30/1975 -0.542681932 -0.615063548 NA
12/31/1975 -0.403577924 -0.638923526 NA
3/31/1976 -0.380526364 -0.539206147 NA
6/30/1976 -0.442296535 -0.446625888 NA
9/30/1976 -0.461643964 -0.373207688 NA
12/31/1976 0.012103014 -0.23977685 NA
3/31/1977 0.325872213 -0.18053861 NA
6/30/1977 0.631646097 -0.117841654 NA
9/30/1977 0.78488791 -0.0144923 NA
12/31/1977 0.788649917 0.021498643 NA
3/31/1978 0.673741698 0.09546683 NA
6/30/1978 0.706155658 0.206705093 NA
9/30/1978 0.522703826 0.192986548 NA
12/31/1978 0.428396106 0.207253858 NA
3/31/1979 0.470574141 0.164214864 NA
6/30/1979 0.358311653 0.046299607 NA
9/30/1979 0.35638532 0.023112269 NA
12/31/1979 0.419966638 -0.045612488 NA
3/31/1980 0.179740444 -0.076264597 NA
6/30/1980 0.028443579 -0.141475201 NA
9/30/1980 0.043751735 -0.202933386 NA
12/31/1980 -0.045781121 -0.208244264 NA
3/31/1981 0.005098403 -0.212419793 NA
6/30/1981 0.161223531 -0.205116972 NA
9/30/1981 0.067265503 -0.221418425 NA
12/31/1981 -0.111001201 -0.314728588 NA
3/31/1982 -0.262153566 -0.431356192 NA
6/30/1982 -0.395296425 -0.519504607 NA
9/30/1982 -0.446020782 -0.615359187 NA
12/31/1982 -0.412289023 -0.679896295 NA
3/31/1983 -0.316467792 -0.741714895 NA
6/30/1983 -0.318749726 -0.72169292 NA
9/30/1983 -0.237969458 -0.63840884 NA
12/31/1983 -0.138803005 -0.514621139 NA
3/31/1984 0.010841392 -0.309787095 NA
6/30/1984 0.125732705 -0.15160796 NA
9/30/1984 0.192989886 -0.076900601 NA
12/31/1984 0.278319299 -0.004608785 NA
3/31/1985 0.348512501 0.008354599 NA
6/30/1985 0.342992157 -0.013041421 NA
9/30/1985 0.28307417 -0.013646624 NA
12/31/1985 0.208780855 -0.054357704 NA
3/31/1986 0.112510532 -0.048003633 NA
6/30/1986 -0.075612731 -0.070112072 NA
9/30/1986 -0.055263083 -0.064406507 NA
12/31/1986 -0.02099371 -0.085766844 NA
3/31/1987 -0.27583918 -0.193094671 NA
6/30/1987 -0.248403296 -0.200752363 NA
9/30/1987 -0.376141876 -0.266241431 NA
12/31/1987 -0.389568686 -0.295690358 NA
3/31/1988 -0.307833135 -0.264404982 NA
6/30/1988 -0.323498547 -0.303159237 NA
9/30/1988 -0.321986079 -0.260063261 NA
12/31/1988 -0.307234615 -0.216835871 NA
3/31/1989 -0.119636126 -0.190341413 NA
6/30/1989 0.137068629 -0.174969494 NA
9/30/1989 0.250439525 -0.223384097 NA
12/31/1989 0.206715435 -0.340156615 NA
3/31/1990 0.152936712 -0.40652132 NA
6/30/1990 -0.041750502 -0.484804899 NA
9/30/1990 -0.141168833 -0.56058985 NA
12/31/1990 -0.169143826 -0.606735468 NA
3/31/1991 -0.320441425 -0.728695154 NA
6/30/1991 -0.391159922 -0.839563489 NA
9/30/1991 -0.46760565 -0.914732397 NA
12/31/1991 -0.726843417 -0.975109577 NA
3/31/1992 -0.556954503 -1.003329039 NA
6/30/1992 -0.514851928 -1.024004102 NA
9/30/1992 -0.604697645 -1.078555226 NA
12/31/1992 -0.353420824 -1.087756395 NA
3/31/1993 -0.632445693 -1.136242867 NA
6/30/1993 -0.799365878 -1.147368431 NA
9/30/1993 -0.902223289 -1.129803061 NA
12/31/1993 -0.814920306 -1.058605433 NA
3/31/1994 -0.579189897 -0.986736596 NA
6/30/1994 -0.088611387 -0.936253071 NA
9/30/1994 0.22260116 -0.858999848 NA
12/31/1994 0.451339006 -0.877685189 NA
3/31/1995 0.570129991 -0.867289603 NA
6/30/1995 0.425069481 -0.912715733 NA
9/30/1995 0.586434484 -0.95021373 NA
12/31/1995 0.438108623 -0.92283839 NA
3/31/1996 0.330049038 -0.880117357 NA
6/30/1996 0.306808829 -0.787068367 NA
9/30/1996 0.323716938 -0.714394808 NA
12/31/1996 0.386373162 -0.667138338 NA
3/31/1997 0.543842435 -0.630250216 NA
6/30/1997 0.568083107 -0.584661663 NA
9/30/1997 0.399485022 -0.533062756 NA
12/31/1997 0.312270701 -0.490428567 NA
3/31/1998 0.494545728 -0.434072554 NA
6/30/1998 0.584147096 -0.394447535 NA
9/30/1998 0.832474053 -0.372897804 NA
12/31/1998 0.691581488 -0.33286351 NA
3/31/1999 0.442121804 -0.340121686 NA
6/30/1999 0.319964528 -0.360934705 NA
9/30/1999 0.202394754 -0.376797855 NA
12/31/1999 0.379636198 -0.404255867 NA
3/31/2000 0.420218378 -0.37769258 NA
6/30/2000 0.545192063 -0.328619123 NA
9/30/2000 0.46070075 -0.334809154 NA
12/31/2000 0.334682763 -0.394619942 NA
3/31/2001 0.190921113 -0.518064499 NA
6/30/2001 0.091257155 -0.702849984 NA
9/30/2001 -0.055888392 -0.899230778 NA
12/31/2001 -0.281518549 -1.122869015 NA
3/31/2002 -0.558793247 -1.316151977 NA
6/30/2002 -0.825627744 -1.489423513 NA
9/30/2002 -0.897839606 -1.601184368 NA
12/31/2002 -0.876712322 -1.672396421 NA
3/31/2003 -0.891066849 -1.764595509 NA
6/30/2003 -1.225130916 -1.773077965 NA
9/30/2003 -0.867687583 -1.717880845 NA
12/31/2003 -0.333367199 -1.587504625 NA
3/31/2004 0.003354575 -1.442308545 NA
6/30/2004 -0.051097903 -1.346176147 NA
9/30/2004 0.237205297 -1.291105986 NA
12/31/2004 -1.291100621 -1.221925378 NA
3/31/2005 -1.344767332 -1.093384743 NA
6/30/2005 -0.375858158 -0.962504089 NA
9/30/2005 0.162062734 -0.859959722 NA
12/31/2005 1.331694603 -0.789026082 NA
3/31/2006 0.86695981 -0.707930923 NA
6/30/2006 0.854011297 -0.621272385 NA
9/30/2006 -0.034785211 -0.58666575 NA
12/31/2006 0.500533223 -0.613792002 NA
3/31/2007 1.370617628 -0.688081622 NA
6/30/2007 0.383303314 -0.74846822 NA
9/30/2007 0.55717802 -0.818718731 NA
12/31/2007 -0.196604431 -0.891562879 NA
3/31/2008 -1.059471846 -0.981931686 NA
6/30/2008 -0.639339089 -1.081878185 NA
9/30/2008 -1.301789641 -1.257713675 NA
12/31/2008 -1.814587355 -1.496860147 NA
3/31/2009 -1.978139877 -1.78446579 NA
6/30/2009 -1.22998333 -2.086832047 NA
9/30/2009 -1.104162931 -2.287346125 NA
12/31/2009 -0.427526116 -2.357673168 NA
3/31/2010 0.219813198 -2.349197626 NA
6/30/2010 -0.960390389 -2.323842764 NA
9/30/2010 -0.590026081 -2.187180996 NA
12/31/2010 -0.308557183 -2.045737267 NA
3/31/2011 -0.41512239 -1.935263515 NA
6/30/2011 -0.159904689 -1.790909648 NA
9/30/2011 -0.70402503 -1.77135241 NA
12/31/2011 -0.525759757 -1.763529539 NA
3/31/2012 -0.659840882 -1.743896961 NA
6/30/2012 -0.632674217 -1.765370965 NA
9/30/2012 0.025045291 -1.746344566 NA
12/31/2012 -0.436125636 -1.739956975 NA
3/31/2013 0.114025444 -1.698280811 NA
6/30/2013 0.6288203 -1.63401103 NA
9/30/2013 0.354583591 -1.60301137 NA
12/31/2013 0.599205554 -1.574811459 NA
3/31/2014 0.2168006 -1.551266074 NA
6/30/2014 -0.173031613 -1.502582312 NA
9/30/2014 -0.146762267 -1.421141386 NA
12/31/2014 -0.08955127 -1.356321573 NA
3/31/2015 0.054819021 -1.30025053 NA
6/30/2015 0.202233955 -1.297387123 NA
9/30/2015 -0.088564403 -1.310150862 NA
12/31/2015 0.111542426 -1.185786366 NA
3/31/2016 -0.081572928 -1.202100515 -1.202100515
6/30/2016 -0.046971738 -1.235996127 -1.235996008
9/30/2016 0.553639948 -1.21910429 -1.219104171
12/31/2016 0.50804925 -1.309317112 -1.309316993
3/31/2017 0.741914093 -1.296945453 -1.296945453
6/30/2017 0.625228465 -1.285484195 -1.285484195
9/30/2017 0.322666556 -1.25721693 -1.25721693
12/31/2017 0.209239572 -1.170222998 -1.170222998
3/31/2018 0.054470461 -1.058614492 -1.058614373
6/30/2018 0.456653178 -0.96815896 -0.968158841
9/30/2018 0.607702136 -0.92385149 -0.923851371
12/31/2018 0.294287622 -0.960730433 -0.960730314
3/31/2019 0.404201984 -0.991127253 -0.991127193
6/30/2019 0.024016 -0.921201646 -0.921201527
9/30/2019 -0.204399139 -0.902019978 -0.902019858
12/31/2019 -0.112834223 -0.903865159 -0.903865099
3/31/2020 -0.212204367 -0.895790756 -0.895790756
6/30/2020 0.701549292 -0.154042602 -0.154042616
9/30/2020 0.780058742 -0.061352953 -0.045611959
12/31/2020 1.034840703 0.110849775 0.116296493
3/31/2021 1.178815484 0.256985098 0.232055977
6/30/2021 1.427948236 0.556147754 0.50939393
9/30/2021 1.786470413 0.849197865 0.765692174
12/31/2021 1.85404563 0.967774987 0.83594954
3/31/2022 2.136609554 1.11803174 0.938960552
6/30/2022 1.78459239 0.220034659 -0.022784043
9/30/2022 1.628892422 -0.01136224 -0.333641827
12/31/2022 1.556903601 -0.181819722 -0.559291601
3/31/2023 1.253043294 -0.408764482 -0.82895565

Note: The net assets measure excludes pension fund claims on the S&L sector, as these claims reflect long-term underfunding issues that are less relevant for the current operations of the S&L sector. For the counterfactual net saving measure, we assume that S&L sector wage growth kept up with private sector wage growth throughout the pandemic. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): November 1948-October 1949, July 1953-May 1954, August 1957-April 1958, April 1960-February 1961, December 1969-November 1970, November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009,and February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Financial Accounts of the United States, and author calculations.

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Figure 3. Employment-to-Retirement Transition Rate

Percent of sector employment

Date Private Retirement Rate Private 2018-2019 Average Retirement Rate S&L Retirement Rate S&L 2018-2019 Average Retirement Rate
1/1/2017 1.7958 2.2318 3.9888 3.6734
2/1/2017 1.8984 2.2318 3.3860 3.6734
3/1/2017 1.9129 2.2318 3.1381 3.6734
4/1/2017 1.9302 2.2318 2.9532 3.6734
5/1/2017 1.9547 2.2318 2.8086 3.6734
6/1/2017 1.9760 2.2318 2.7955 3.6734
7/1/2017 1.9944 2.2318 2.7822 3.6734
8/1/2017 2.0183 2.2318 2.7904 3.6734
9/1/2017 2.0424 2.2318 2.8583 3.6734
10/1/2017 2.0714 2.2318 2.8772 3.6734
11/1/2017 2.0998 2.2318 2.9562 3.6734
12/1/2017 2.1234 2.2318 3.0015 3.6734
1/1/2018 2.1703 2.2318 2.9625 3.6734
2/1/2018 2.2068 2.2318 3.0316 3.6734
3/1/2018 2.2464 2.2318 3.1142 3.6734
4/1/2018 2.2847 2.2318 3.2419 3.6734
5/1/2018 2.3032 2.2318 3.3394 3.6734
6/1/2018 2.3134 2.2318 3.3497 3.6734
7/1/2018 2.3294 2.2318 3.3977 3.6734
8/1/2018 2.3272 2.2318 3.4813 3.6734
9/1/2018 2.3188 2.2318 3.5628 3.6734
10/1/2018 2.2952 2.2318 3.6597 3.6734
11/1/2018 2.2621 2.2318 3.6849 3.6734
12/1/2018 2.2386 2.2318 3.6733 3.6734
1/1/2019 2.2212 2.2318 3.6861 3.6734
2/1/2019 2.2008 2.2318 3.7194 3.6734
3/1/2019 2.1830 2.2318 3.7387 3.6734
4/1/2019 2.1721 2.2318 3.7039 3.6734
5/1/2019 2.1975 2.2318 3.6903 3.6734
6/1/2019 2.2017 2.2318 3.7195 3.6734
7/1/2019 2.1953 2.2318 3.6913 3.6734
8/1/2019 2.1836 2.2318 3.6145 3.6734
9/1/2019 2.1777 2.2318 3.5484 3.6734
10/1/2019 2.1746 2.2318 3.5207 3.6734
11/1/2019 2.1975 2.2318 3.4920 3.6734
12/1/2019 2.2036 2.2318 3.5134 3.6734
1/1/2020 2.2030 2.2318 3.5131 3.6734
2/1/2020 2.2093 2.2318 3.4841 3.6734
3/1/2020 2.2020 2.2318 3.4589 3.6734
4/1/2020 2.1836 2.2318 3.4723 3.6734
5/1/2020 2.1534 2.2318 3.5474 3.6734
6/1/2020 2.1444 2.2318 3.5911 3.6734
7/1/2020 2.1583 2.2318 3.6775 3.6734
8/1/2020 2.1732 2.2318 3.7155 3.6734
9/1/2020 2.2056 2.2318 3.7147 3.6734
10/1/2020 2.2761 2.2318 3.6608 3.6734
11/1/2020 2.3120 2.2318 3.6631 3.6734
12/1/2020 2.3646 2.2318 3.6711 3.6734
1/1/2021 2.4093 2.2318 3.7710 3.6734
2/1/2021 2.4439 2.2318 3.8632 3.6734
3/1/2021 2.4986 2.2318 3.9791 3.6734
4/1/2021 2.5157 2.2318 4.1067 3.6734
5/1/2021 2.5263 2.2318 4.0928 3.6734
6/1/2021 2.5243 2.2318 4.1566 3.6734
7/1/2021 2.5095 2.2318 4.1538 3.6734
8/1/2021 2.5104 2.2318 4.1574 3.6734
9/1/2021 2.5034 2.2318 4.1141 3.6734
10/1/2021 2.4632 2.2318 4.0989 3.6734
11/1/2021 2.4299 2.2318 4.0887 3.6734
12/1/2021 2.3777 2.2318 4.1365 3.6734
1/1/2022 2.3533 2.2318 4.0781 3.6734
2/1/2022 2.3360 2.2318 3.9860 3.6734
3/1/2022 2.3052 2.2318 3.9144 3.6734
4/1/2022 2.3257 2.2318 3.7754 3.6734
5/1/2022 2.3527 2.2318 3.7755 3.6734
6/1/2022 2.3915 2.2318 3.7784 3.6734
7/1/2022 2.4271 2.2318 3.8233 3.6734
8/1/2022 2.4400 2.2318 3.8813 3.6734
9/1/2022 2.4096 2.2318 3.9490 3.6734
10/1/2022 2.3958 2.2318 4.0314 3.6734
11/1/2022 2.3694 2.2318 3.9868 3.6734
12/1/2022 2.3711 2.2318 3.8770 3.6734
1/1/2023 2.3588 2.2318 3.7977 3.6734
2/1/2023 2.3296 2.2318 3.7634 3.6734
3/1/2023 2.3393 2.2318 3.7520 3.6734
4/1/2023 2.3181 2.2318 3.7912 3.6734
5/1/2023 2.2944 2.2318 3.7338 3.6734
6/1/2023 2.2600 2.2318 3.6680 3.6734

Note: Figure plots percent of those in a given sector who are employed in one month and observed to be retired one year later. Twelve-month moving averages of monthly data.

Source: Authors' analysis of Current Population Survey data.

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Figure 4. Employment Cost Index

4-quarter percent change

Date S&L Private
1/1/1980 NA NA
4/1/1980 NA NA
7/1/1980 NA NA
10/1/1980 NA 9.5
1/1/1981 NA 10.7
4/1/1981 NA 10.2
7/1/1981 NA 9.9
10/1/1981 NA 10.0
1/1/1982 NA 7.8
4/1/1982 9.6 7.4
7/1/1982 8.3 7.2
10/1/1982 7.1 6.3
1/1/1983 7.0 6.5
4/1/1983 6.9 6.1
7/1/1983 5.9 5.5
10/1/1983 6.1 5.7
1/1/1984 6.3 5.9
4/1/1984 6.5 5.6
7/1/1984 6.8 5.0
10/1/1984 6.7 5.0
1/1/1985 6.4 4.2
4/1/1985 5.9 4.2
7/1/1985 5.9 4.6
10/1/1985 5.6 3.9
1/1/1986 5.5 3.8
4/1/1986 6.0 3.8
7/1/1986 5.1 3.1
10/1/1986 5.3 3.1
1/1/1987 5.0 3.1
4/1/1987 4.6 3.0
7/1/1987 4.3 3.4
10/1/1987 4.4 3.4
1/1/1988 4.8 4.0
4/1/1988 5.0 4.3
7/1/1988 5.5 4.3
10/1/1988 5.6 4.8
1/1/1989 5.5 4.6
4/1/1989 5.9 4.5
7/1/1989 6.3 4.9
10/1/1989 6.2 4.8
1/1/1990 6.5 5.1
4/1/1990 6.5 5.2
7/1/1990 5.9 5.0
10/1/1990 5.9 4.6
1/1/1991 5.6 4.3
4/1/1991 5.2 4.5
7/1/1991 4.1 4.4
10/1/1991 3.6 4.4
1/1/1992 3.1 4.3
4/1/1992 3.2 3.6
7/1/1992 3.5 3.4
10/1/1992 3.6 3.6
1/1/1993 3.6 3.5
4/1/1993 3.4 3.6
7/1/1993 3.0 3.8
10/1/1993 2.9 3.6
1/1/1994 2.9 3.4
4/1/1994 2.9 3.4
7/1/1994 3.0 3.3
10/1/1994 2.9 3.2
1/1/1995 3.1 2.8
4/1/1995 3.2 2.8
7/1/1995 3.0 2.6
10/1/1995 3.0 2.5
1/1/1996 2.7 2.8
4/1/1996 2.5 2.9
7/1/1996 2.4 2.9
10/1/1996 2.6 3.1
1/1/1997 2.6 3.0
4/1/1997 2.3 2.9
7/1/1997 2.5 3.1
10/1/1997 2.3 3.5
1/1/1998 2.4 3.6
4/1/1998 2.7 3.5
7/1/1998 2.9 3.9
10/1/1998 2.9 3.5
1/1/1999 2.9 2.9
4/1/1999 3.0 3.3
7/1/1999 3.0 3.0
10/1/1999 3.5 3.5
1/1/2000 3.6 4.6
4/1/2000 3.4 4.6
7/1/2000 3.3 4.7
10/1/2000 3.0 4.2
1/1/2001 3.3 4.2
4/1/2001 3.7 4.0
7/1/2001 4.4 4.0
10/1/2001 4.1 4.1
1/1/2002 3.7 3.8
4/1/2002 3.4 4.0
7/1/2002 3.7 3.5
10/1/2002 4.1 3.1
1/1/2003 4.3 3.6
4/1/2003 4.3 3.5
7/1/2003 3.7 3.9
10/1/2003 3.5 4.0
1/1/2004 3.4 3.8
4/1/2004 3.5 3.9
7/1/2004 3.4 3.8
10/1/2004 3.6 3.8
1/1/2005 3.6 3.5
4/1/2005 3.5 3.1
7/1/2005 3.9 2.9
10/1/2005 4.1 2.9
1/1/2006 3.7 2.6
4/1/2006 3.8 2.8
7/1/2006 4.1 3.0
10/1/2006 4.1 3.2
1/1/2007 4.6 3.2
4/1/2007 4.8 3.1
7/1/2007 4.3 3.1
10/1/2007 4.1 3.0
1/1/2008 3.6 3.2
4/1/2008 3.5 3.0
7/1/2008 3.4 2.8
10/1/2008 3.0 2.4
1/1/2009 3.1 1.9
4/1/2009 3.1 1.5
7/1/2009 2.3 1.2
10/1/2009 2.3 1.2
1/1/2010 2.0 1.6
4/1/2010 1.7 1.9
7/1/2010 1.8 2.0
10/1/2010 1.8 2.1
1/1/2011 1.8 2.0
4/1/2011 1.7 2.3
7/1/2011 1.5 2.1
10/1/2011 1.3 2.2
1/1/2012 1.5 2.1
4/1/2012 1.6 1.8
7/1/2012 1.8 1.9
10/1/2012 1.9 1.8
1/1/2013 1.9 1.9
4/1/2013 1.8 1.9
7/1/2013 1.7 1.9
10/1/2013 1.9 2.0
1/1/2014 1.9 1.7
4/1/2014 2.0 2.0
7/1/2014 2.1 2.3
10/1/2014 2.0 2.3
1/1/2015 2.1 2.8
4/1/2015 2.2 1.9
7/1/2015 2.3 1.9
10/1/2015 2.5 1.9
1/1/2016 2.4 1.8
4/1/2016 2.3 2.4
7/1/2016 2.6 2.3
10/1/2016 2.4 2.2
1/1/2017 2.6 2.3
4/1/2017 2.6 2.4
7/1/2017 2.4 2.5
10/1/2017 2.5 2.6
1/1/2018 2.2 2.8
4/1/2018 2.3 2.9
7/1/2018 2.5 2.9
10/1/2018 2.6 3.0
1/1/2019 3.0 2.8
4/1/2019 3.0 2.6
7/1/2019 3.1 2.7
10/1/2019 2.9 2.7
1/1/2020 2.8 2.8
4/1/2020 2.7 2.7
7/1/2020 2.3 2.4
10/1/2020 2.3 2.6
1/1/2021 2.0 2.8
4/1/2021 2.0 3.1
7/1/2021 2.3 4.1
10/1/2021 2.6 4.4
1/1/2022 3.2 4.8
4/1/2022 3.4 5.5
7/1/2022 4.6 5.2
10/1/2022 4.8 5.1
1/1/2023 4.9 4.8

Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, December 2007-June 2009 and February 2020-April 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Last Update: August 04, 2023