Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1. Vaccine Administration

This is a Line chart titled “Vaccine Administration.” The x axis ranges from 1/1/2021 to 5/1/2021. The y axis ranges from 0 to 250, the unit is in Millions. The data are monthly. There are 5 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled Administered Doses (CDC); is designated by a solid blue line, and ranges from 0 to 249. The second variable is labeled One of More (CDC); is designated by a blue dashed line, and ranges from 0 to 150. The third variable is labeled One or More, aged 65+ (CDC); is designated by a gray dotted line, and ranges from 0 to 50. The fourth variable is labeled Received (HPS); is designated by red diamonds, and ranges from 20 to 110. The fifth variable is labeled ages 65+ (HPS); is designated by orange squares, and ranges from 0 to 45. Figure 1 compares data from the Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey (HPS) with statistics from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The solid blue line shows the total number of doses administered since January 1, 2021, while the dashed and dotted lines show the number of people that have received one or more doses of the vaccines; both have been steadily increasing over time. The HPS data on the number of people that reported having received or planning to receive the vaccine is well-aligned with the CDC series of the people who have received one or more doses. A similar alignment between HPS and CDC data applies to the subgroup of people of 65 years of age or older.

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Figure 2. Measures of Spending

Figure 2a:

This is a Line chart titled “Restaurants.” The x axis ranges from 1/1/2021 to 5/1/2021. The y axis ranges from -10 to 50, the unit is Percentage change Jan. 1, 2021 = 0 (left) and to the right it ranges from 3 to 8, the unit is Percent. The data are monthly. There are 4 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled Open Table (left); is designated by a solid green line, and ranges from 0 to 30, peaking at 50 in April. The second variable is labeled SafeGraph (left); is designated by a green dashed line, and ranges from 0 to 45 with a drop to about 30 in April. The third variable is labeled HPS (right); is designated by red diamonds, and ranges from 3.5 to 7.9. The fourth variable is labeled for 65+ (right); is designated by orange squares, and ranges from 3 to 8.

Figure 2b:

This is a Line chart titled “Retail.” The x axis ranges from 1/1/2021 to 7/1/2021. The y axis ranges from -10 to 50, the unit is Percentage change Jan. 1, 2021 = 0 (left) and to the right it ranges from 45 to 65, the unit is Percent. The data are monthly. There are 5 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled Groceries (left); is designated by a solid purple line, and ranges from -10 to 50, peaking at 43 in April. The second variable is labeled Pharmacies (left); is designated by a blue dashed line, and ranges from 0 to 33 peaking to 40 in April. The third variable is labeled Nonessential (left); is designated by a dotted green line, and ranges from 0 to 33. The fourth variable is labeled HPS (right); is designated by red diamonds, and ranges from 60 to 7.9. The fifth variable is labeled for 65+ (right); is designated by orange squares, and ranges from 65 to 50.

Figure 2c:

This is a Line chart titled “Medical Services.” The x axis ranges from 1/1/2021 to 5/1/2021. The y axis ranges from -10 to 50, the unit is Percentage change Jan. 1, 2021 = 0 (left) and to the right it ranges from 10 to 30, the unit is Percent. The data are monthly. There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled SafeGraph (left); is designated by a solid blue line, and ranges from 0 to 20, with a drop to -5 in February. The second variable is labeled HPS (right); is designated by red diamonds, and ranges from 15 to 17. The third variable is labeled for 65+ (right); is designated by orange squares, and ranges from 22 to 24.

Figure 2d:

This is a Line chart titled “Retail.” The x axis ranges from 1/1/2021 to 6/1/2021. The y axis ranges from -10 to 50, the unit is Percentage change Jan. 1, 2021 = 0 (left) and to the right it ranges from 0 to 3, the unit is Percent. The data are monthly. There are 5 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled Auto Repairs (left); is designated by a solid blue line, and ranges from 0 to 27, peaking at 30 in March. The second variable is labeled Pers Care (left); is designated by a dashed blue line, and ranges from 0 to 20 dropping to -9 in February. The third variable is labeled Worship (left); is designated by a dotted gray line, and ranges from 1.3 to 1.5, peaking at 33 in April. The fourth variable is labeled HPS (right); is designated by red diamonds, and ranges from 1.3 to 1.5. The fifth variable is labeled for 65+ (right); is designated by orange squares, and ranges from 1.4 to 1.6.

Figure 2 summarizes recent trends in spending across four sectors: restaurants (top left), retail (top right), medical services (bottom left), and other personal services (bottom right). Spending indicators from SafeGraph and OpenTable are shown as continuous lines, while HPS measures for the adult population and for the group aged 65 years or older are shown as red diamonds and orange squares, respectively. Since the beginning of the year, indicators of spending have been moving higher in all sectors, although the recovery has been more pronounced for restaurants and a few categories of retail spending; relatedly, the share of people that reported in HPS to have taken fewer trips to stores than normal because of the coronavirus pandemic over the previous week (top right panel) declined 15 percentage points over the survey period, consistent with the direction of the changes in spending. Looking at medical and other personal services, SafeGraph indicators recorded some increases in early March but have moved sideways ever since; similarly, HPS measures show little change in the share of people that have attended in-person medical/dental appointment or engaged in housekeeping/caregiving services over the period of analysis.

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Figure 3. Mobility

This is a Line chart titled “Mobility.” The y axis ranges from -20 to 60, the unit is Percentage change Jan. 1, 2021 = 0 (left) and to the right it ranges from 20 to 26, the unit is Percent. The data are monthly. There are 5 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled SafeGraph (left); is designated by a solid black line, and ranges from 0 to 47, peaking at 58 in April. The second variable is labeled Apple (left); is designated by a dashed gray line, and ranges from 0 to 38, dropping to -5 in February. The third variable is labeled INRIX (left); is designated by a gray dotted line, and ranges from 0 to 16, dropping to -7 in April. The fourth variable is labeled HPS (right); is designated by red diamonds, and ranges from 25 to 22, peaking at 26 in February. The fifth variable is labeled for 65+ (right); is designated by orange squares, and ranges from 21.5 to 12, peaking at 23 in February. Figure 3 summarizes mobility indicators. All indicators have improved since the beginning of the year, with highest increase in SafeGraph visits to gas stations (black). The Apple driving index and the INRIX index of passenger distance traveled have also increased between 15 and 30 percentage point since January 1, 2021. Relatedly, the share of respondents to HPS that reported to have taken fewer trips by bus, rail, or ride-sharing services than normal because of the coronavirus pandemic over the previous 7 days declined about 5 percentage points since mid-January for both the adult population (red diamonds) and the group of people aged 65 or older (orange squares).

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Figure 4. Education and Employment

Figure 4a:

This is a Line chart titled “Education.” The x axis ranges from 1/1/2021 to 6/1/2021. The y axis ranges from -10 to 40, the unit is Percentage change Jan. 1, 2021 = 0 (left) and to the right it ranges from 56 to 66, the unit is Percent. The data are monthly. There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled Universities (left); is designated by a solid blue line, and ranges from 0 to 66 with drops in February and March. The second variable is labeled HPS (right); is designated by red diamonds, and ranges from 55 to 63 with peaks to 64 in February and 66 in April and a drop to 59 in March. The third variable is labeled for 65+ (right); is designated by orange squares, and ranges from 57 to 65. Visits to universities and HPS data on the share of respondents for the adult population (red diamonds) or the group aged 65 years or more (orange squares) reporting four or more days of in-person contact with teachers for their children display larger variability when compared with other series, likely due to the effects of holidays on the school calendar: in fact, significant declines in our education indicators occur around Presidents’ Day and in late March/early April, a period marked by Passover, Holi, and Easter. Smoothing through this variability, however, all measures show an upward trend.

Figure 4b:

This is a Line chart titled “Employment.” The x axis ranges from 1/1/2021 to 5/1/2021. The y axis ranges from 0 to 20, the unit is Percentage change Jan. 1, 2021 = 0 (left) and to the right it ranges from 10 to 30, the unit is Percent. The data are monthly. There are 4 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled Employees Working (left); is designated by a solid blue line, and ranges from 0 to 23, dropping at 13 in February. The second variable is labeled Hours Worked (left); is designated by a dashed blue line, and ranges from 0 to 24 with a drop to about 13 in February. The third variable is labeled HPS (right); is designated by red diamonds, and ranges from 26 to 17. The fourth variable is labeled for 65+ (right); is designated by orange squares, and ranges from 16 to 13. Employment indicators also show some improvement. The number of people aged 18 and older (red diamonds) or 65 and older (orange squares) in the HPS survey that are expecting employment income loss over the next 4 weeks declined over time; in addition, Homebase indicators on employees working (darker blue) or hours worked (dashed blue) have been trending up since the beginning of the year.

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