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Tracking the Labor Market with "Big Data" Accessible Data

Figure 1: CES and ADP-FRB Monthly Employment Gains

Thousands

Period CES ADP-FRB, not benchmarked
2006m1 310 180.6105
2006m2 276 150.1618
2006m3 285 117.062
2006m4 142 -9.59312
2006m5 33 110.5143
2006m6 85 114.8546
2006m7 145 172.8417
2006m8 137 95.07404
2006m9 76 36.11891
2006m10 24 257.8886
2006m11 197 66.4841
2006m12 181 -41.7711
2007m1 218 45.07908
2007m2 44 50.63259
2007m3 219 78.65121
2007m4 24 78.20191
2007m5 134 238.7713
2007m6 62 30.35997
2007m7 3 27.16086
2007m8 -78 -11.0847
2007m9 29 9.539981
2007m10 58 141.3372
2007m11 72 175.3733
2007m12 68 -175.156
2008m1 1 -36.5212
2008m2 -111 -52.3922
2008m3 -74 -145.782
2008m4 -243 -130.693
2008m5 -217 -166.44
2008m6 -200 -92.2394
2008m7 -249 -196.962
2008m8 -278 -224.086
2008m9 -430 -310.862
2008m10 -493 -369.941
2008m11 -738 -816.509
2008m12 -700 -830.476
2009m1 -806 -628.316
2009m2 -739 -755.954
2009m3 -787 -718.267
2009m4 -811 -560.986
2009m5 -284 -425.998
2009m6 -424 -411.028
2009m7 -286 -261.526
2009m8 -200 -235.236
2009m9 -156 -144.893
2009m10 -271 -118.271
2009m11 3 93.43345
2009m12 -218 -313.501
2010m1 -6 -57.1165
2010m2 -77 -80.2698
2010m3 138 19.04666
2010m4 186 55.85296
2010m5 107 61.8069
2010m6 120 112.683
2010m7 83 100.0811
2010m8 144 62.66913
2010m9 109 14.31586
2010m10 219 -118.694
2010m11 133 204.4332
2010m12 95 98.90129
2011m1 28 114.6412
2011m2 256 143.9034
2011m3 255 161.2954
2011m4 329 151.2289
2011m5 150 149.2008
2011m6 200 193.5628
2011m7 176 223.0338
2011m8 154 197.1044
2011m9 270 178.3883
2011m10 189 206.9663
2011m11 159 307.2591
2011m12 221 138.2572
2012m1 363 139.1287
2012m2 261 181.7116
2012m3 242 213.5154
2012m4 95 162.8658
2012m5 119 202.7919
2012m6 53 162.8437
2012m7 170 168.3654
2012m8 167 236.3657
2012m9 180 264.0719
2012m10 180 249.4367
2012m11 178 217.8756
2012m12 233 285.2655
2013m1 213 273.6269
2013m2 267 197.661
2013m3 147 163.5678
2013m4 193 201.8479
2013m5 229 231.7177
2013m6 205 249.1803
2013m7 130 293.1562
2013m8 226 286.754
2013m9 185 182.2728
2013m10 230 200.0259
2013m11 254 390.7024
2013m12 90 351.2979
2014m1 183 251.9918
2014m2 157 267.2664
2014m3 242 318.4855
2014m4 307 318.2294
2014m5 242 297.3138
2014m6 261 299.9333
2014m7 221 292.6131
2014m8 234 279.9862
2014m9 269 302.9578
2014m10 238 291.2336
2014m11 271 339.2696
2014m12 254 335.7396
2015m1 201 311.2172
2015m2 227 211.1304
2015m3 87 209.0034
2015m4 262 281.8016
2015m5 314 254.3875
2015m6 172 267.5133
2015m7 252 222.0719
2015m8 113 232.4956
2015m9 152 292.2077
2015m10 325 278.7506
2015m11 214 105.8925
2015m12 255 69.23038
2016m1 73 241.8379
2016m2 206 221.9577
2016m3 196 265.2892
2016m4 205 190.2952
2016m5 8 198.9977
2016m6 275 179.3695
2016m7 241 220.7289
2016m8 162 249.5515
2016m9 245 236.8699
2016m10 130 239.9867
2016m11 184 230.1941
2016m12 191 218.8032
2017m1 246 225.1418
2017m2 131 229.1573
2017m3 118 240.2034
2017m4 210 257.3876
2017m5 127 259.5864
2017m6 206 287.7691
2017m7 192 266.761
2017m8 194 239.565
2017m9 16 236.9689
2017m10 249 243.8338
2017m11 212 257.339
2017m12 167 309.409
2018m1 186 358.5285
2018m2 304 297.4687
2018m3 173 273.6278
2018m4 184 237.7179
2018m5 264 296.8388
2018m6 236 291.8593
2018m7 173 288.4847
2018m8 246 250.7681
2018m9 108 247.6023
2018m10 285 267.2297
2018m11 200 261.1216
2018m12 224 304.1943
2019m1 297 337.7404
2019m2 46 137.9001
2019m3 153 266.4473
2019m4 195 249.5588
2019m5 81 101.4315
2019m6 179 140.5584
2019m7 148 189.604

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; ADP microdata; internal calculations.

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Figure 2: Combining CES and ADP-FRB Monthly Employment Gains

Thousands

Period CES ADP-FRB Smoothed State Lower bound of 90% confidence interval Upper bound of 90% confidence interval
2006m1 310 279.4662 268.9229 214.8403 323.0055
2006m2 276 247.7108 252.2626 198.18 306.3451
2006m3 285 213.1905 217.9537 163.8711 272.0363
2006m4 142 29.26982 125.1557 71.07306 179.2383
2006m5 33 155.7429 111.7026 57.61996 165.7852
2006m6 85 160.3132 129.2115 75.12891 183.2941
2006m7 145 221.3736 157.8833 103.8007 211.9659
2006m8 137 139.4843 135.9525 81.86989 190.0351
2006m9 76 77.40456 109.6935 55.61086 163.7761
2006m10 24 310.928 147.5113 93.42867 201.5939
2006m11 197 109.3791 140.316 86.23344 194.3986
2006m12 181 -4.61362 110.3176 56.23497 164.4002
2007m1 218 86.83962 127.5648 73.48218 181.6474
2007m2 44 92.68747 99.74676 45.66416 153.8294
2007m3 219 122.1911 131.8418 77.75916 185.9244
2007m4 24 73.69712 91.14696 37.06436 145.2296
2007m5 134 243.4701 131.4589 77.37626 185.5415
2007m6 62 23.11295 58.38713 4.304532 112.4697
2007m7 3 19.73047 16.96635 -37.1162 71.04895
2007m8 -78 -20.7073 -13.9516 -68.0342 40.13096
2007m9 29 1.099588 22.46226 -31.6203 76.54486
2007m10 58 140.4512 73.90995 19.82735 127.9925
2007m11 72 176.4382 74.49008 20.40748 128.5727
2007m12 68 -194.183 -23.635 -77.7176 30.44756
2008m1 1 -47.6018 -39.3354 -93.418 14.74717
2008m2 -111 -64.3825 -85.0751 -139.158 -30.9925
2008m3 -74 -163.125 -126.904 -180.986 -72.8212
2008m4 -243 -166.724 -183.043 -237.126 -128.961
2008m5 -217 -204.485 -198.83 -252.912 -144.747
2008m6 -200 -126.104 -192.045 -246.128 -137.963
2008m7 -249 -236.726 -243.395 -297.477 -189.312
2008m8 -278 -265.378 -296.354 -350.436 -242.271
2008m9 -430 -357.043 -397.792 -451.875 -343.71
2008m10 -493 -419.449 -509.658 -563.741 -455.575
2008m11 -738 -891.175 -727.434 -781.516 -673.351
2008m12 -700 -905.929 -773.636 -827.719 -719.553
2009m1 -806 -692.38 -759.254 -813.337 -705.172
2009m2 -739 -827.209 -767.902 -821.985 -713.82
2009m3 -787 -787.399 -746.021 -800.104 -691.938
2009m4 -811 -587.678 -645.203 -699.286 -591.121
2009m5 -284 -445.531 -445.271 -499.353 -391.188
2009m6 -424 -429.767 -398.334 -452.416 -344.251
2009m7 -286 -272.334 -296.398 -350.48 -242.315
2009m8 -200 -244.651 -228.549 -282.631 -174.466
2009m9 -156 -149.515 -172.038 -226.12 -117.955
2009m10 -271 -121.481 -153.272 -207.355 -99.1894
2009m11 3 101.452 -54.7651 -108.848 -0.68253
2009m12 -218 -327.066 -166.024 -220.107 -111.942
2010m1 -6 -57.0832 -68.4846 -122.567 -14.402
2010m2 -77 -81.4646 -41.5077 -95.5903 12.57493
2010m3 138 23.11964 58.67106 4.588459 112.7537
2010m4 186 114.5917 119.0822 64.99963 173.1648
2010m5 107 120.8636 120.7331 66.65046 174.8157
2010m6 120 174.4566 135.407 81.32443 189.4896
2010m7 83 161.1818 126.091 72.00844 180.1736
2010m8 144 121.7719 122.9151 68.83248 176.9977
2010m9 109 70.83649 101.0604 46.97777 155.143
2010m10 219 -69.2759 101.8014 47.71879 155.884
2010m11 133 271.1064 161.4418 107.3592 215.5244
2010m12 95 159.9389 139.401 85.31844 193.4836
2011m1 28 176.5194 139.1968 85.11419 193.2794
2011m2 256 207.3442 207.4221 153.3395 261.5047
2011m3 255 225.6649 229.9837 175.9011 284.0663
2011m4 329 185.1299 233.4271 179.3445 287.5097
2011m5 150 182.9804 194.5845 140.5019 248.6671
2011m6 200 229.9997 209.7121 155.6295 263.7947
2011m7 176 261.236 214.1652 160.0826 268.2478
2011m8 154 233.7534 208.316 154.2334 262.3986
2011m9 270 213.9162 228.9154 174.8328 282.9979
2011m10 189 244.206 225.7778 171.6952 279.8604
2011m11 159 350.5065 239.4584 185.3758 293.541
2011m12 221 171.3812 219.4349 165.3523 273.5175
2012m1 363 172.3049 245.8803 191.7977 299.9629
2012m2 261 217.4385 234.7344 180.6518 288.817
2012m3 242 251.1474 216.1694 162.0868 270.252
2012m4 95 111.009 138.7071 84.62455 192.7897
2012m5 119 153.4398 130.2843 76.20166 184.3669
2012m6 53 110.9855 109.7318 55.64917 163.8144
2012m7 170 116.8536 141.789 87.70639 195.8716
2012m8 167 189.1198 172.0504 117.9678 226.133
2012m9 180 218.5642 190.3699 136.2873 244.4525
2012m10 180 203.0108 190.7686 136.686 244.8512
2012m11 178 169.4698 189.4527 135.3701 243.5353
2012m12 233 241.0873 219.0424 164.9598 273.125
2013m1 213 228.7186 213.8134 159.7308 267.896
2013m2 267 147.987 194.8294 140.7468 248.912
2013m3 147 111.755 154.2272 100.1446 208.3098
2013m4 193 123.0563 162.8005 108.7179 216.8831
2013m5 229 154.5936 182.4147 128.3321 236.4973
2013m6 205 173.031 185.7484 131.6658 239.831
2013m7 130 219.4618 183.7011 129.6185 237.7837
2013m8 226 212.7022 197.2464 143.1638 251.329
2013m9 185 102.3884 168.4738 114.3912 222.5564
2013m10 230 121.1326 189.8322 135.7496 243.9148
2013m11 254 322.4535 241.5563 187.4737 295.6389
2013m12 90 280.8493 201.5281 147.4455 255.6107
2014m1 183 175.9995 188.6484 134.5658 242.731
2014m2 157 192.1267 193.9007 139.8181 247.9833
2014m3 242 246.2052 236.093 182.0105 290.1756
2014m4 307 263.1117 262.9504 208.8678 317.033
2014m5 242 241.2322 248.263 194.1804 302.3456
2014m6 261 243.9724 246.7887 192.7061 300.8713
2014m7 221 236.3148 234.9575 180.8749 289.0401
2014m8 234 223.1059 235.2857 181.2031 289.3683
2014m9 269 247.1363 249.2069 195.1243 303.2895
2014m10 238 234.8717 246.7488 192.6662 300.8314
2014m11 271 285.1218 264.6641 210.5815 318.7467
2014m12 254 281.429 256.6086 202.526 310.6912
2015m1 201 255.7764 226.7129 172.6303 280.7955
2015m2 227 151.0765 192.6068 138.5242 246.6894
2015m3 87 148.8514 167.3798 113.2972 221.4624
2015m4 262 267.2766 236.8538 182.7712 290.9364
2015m5 314 238.7994 252.6237 198.5411 306.7063
2015m6 172 252.4342 224.3066 170.224 278.3892
2015m7 252 205.2306 217.8858 163.8032 271.9684
2015m8 113 216.0586 191.9888 137.9062 246.0714
2015m9 152 278.0862 217.2393 163.1567 271.3219
2015m10 325 264.1073 244.1584 190.0758 298.241
2015m11 214 84.54593 175.0381 120.9555 229.1207
2015m12 255 46.46206 159.0301 104.9475 213.1127
2016m1 73 225.7631 164.0391 109.9565 218.1217
2016m2 206 205.112 194.2099 140.1273 248.2925
2016m3 196 250.1239 202.6394 148.5568 256.722
2016m4 205 145.5542 170.4908 116.4082 224.5734
2016m5 8 154.5715 130.6196 76.53695 184.7022
2016m6 275 134.2333 183.2499 129.1673 237.3325
2016m7 241 177.0888 197.8655 143.7829 251.9481
2016m8 162 206.954 192.4977 138.4151 246.5803
2016m9 245 193.8138 201.9013 147.8187 255.9839
2016m10 130 197.0433 178.7698 124.6872 232.8524
2016m11 184 186.8964 183.907 129.8244 237.9895
2016m12 191 175.0935 186.2169 132.1343 240.2995
2017m1 246 181.6613 195.2649 141.1823 249.3475
2017m2 131 185.8221 170.0119 115.9294 224.0945
2017m3 118 197.2679 166.2214 112.1388 220.304
2017m4 210 169.1847 177.4911 123.4085 231.5737
2017m5 127 171.4518 166.4397 112.3571 220.5223
2017m6 206 200.5084 187.9655 133.8829 242.0481
2017m7 192 178.8488 180.2016 126.119 234.2842
2017m8 194 150.8095 162.8309 108.7483 216.9135
2017m9 16 148.133 128.0757 73.99308 182.1583
2017m10 249 155.2107 179.6995 125.6169 233.7821
2017m11 212 169.1347 190.2246 136.142 244.3072
2017m12 167 222.8193 201.2917 147.2091 255.3743
2018m1 186 273.4619 223.7176 169.635 277.8002
2018m2 304 210.5087 232.7766 178.694 286.8592
2018m3 173 185.9285 196.7781 142.6955 250.8607
2018m4 184 168.9578 194.3026 140.22 248.3852
2018m5 264 229.1803 226.9701 172.8875 281.0527
2018m6 236 223.9217 222.6621 168.5795 276.7447
2018m7 173 220.3062 204.75 150.6674 258.8326
2018m8 246 181.6919 201.7188 147.6362 255.8014
2018m9 108 178.3183 176.8792 122.7966 230.9618
2018m10 285 198.1537 216.0503 161.9677 270.1329
2018m11 200 191.7809 207.9586 153.876 262.0412
2018m12 224 235.4271 223.7113 169.6287 277.7939
2019m1 297 269.3411 227.8424 173.7598 281.925
2019m2 46 66.16254 125.5953 71.51267 179.6779
2019m3 153 196.5735 157.8408 103.758 211.9236
2019m4 195 179.2837 156.4335 102.3481 210.5189
2019m5 81 28.94302 96.02924 41.90835 150.1501
2019m6 179 68.53411 116.5388 61.94328 171.1344
2019m7 148 118.1253 125.6805 65.06008 186.301

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; ADP microdata; internal calculations.

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Last Update: September 20, 2019