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Understanding Bank Deposit Growth during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Total Deposits at U.S. Domestic Commercial Banks
Total deposits at US Domestic Commercial Banks is plotted every quarter in black from 1985 to 2021:Q4. Deposits show a steady increase from just under 5 trillion in the beginning to just under 20 trillion at the end. There is a sharper increase starting in the last recession during COVID.
Note: Shaded areas indicate recessions as defined by the NBER: July 1990–March 1991, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Board Staff calculations; Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income, FFIEC 031/041/051.
Figure 2. Year-Over-Year Change in Deposits at U.S. Domestic Commercial Banks
The year-over-year change in deposits at US Domestic Commercial Banks is plotted every quarter in black from 1985 to 2021:Q4. The series is volatile but generally deposits gradually increase about 5 percentage points in the period leading up a recession and then have a sharper drop after a recession. The COVID recession shows a sharp increase of about 15 percentage points before the recession and a sharp decrease of about 10 percentage points after the recession.
Note: Shaded areas indicate recessions as defined by the NBER: July 1990–March 1991, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Board Staff calculations; Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income, FFIEC 031/041/051.
Figure 3. Domestic Commercial Bank Deposits to GDP and Commercial Bank Credit to GDP Ratios
The ratio of deposits to GDP, in black, and the ratio of commercial bank credit to GDP, in red, are plotted quarterly from 1973 to 2021:Q4. Both series have shown a steady increase from about 40 percent. Starting in 1980, the series decoupled and bank credit to GDP had been about 5-10 percentage points higher. Around 2014, the series were both at 60 percent. During COVID, both series experienced a sharp increase of about 15 percentage points.
Note: Shaded areas indicate recessions as defined by the NBER: November 1973–March 1975, January 1980–July 1980, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. Bank credit includes loans and leases as well as securities holding by commercial banks.
Source: H.8 statistical release, Federal Reserve Board; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure 4. Cumulative Growth
Figure 4a. Cumulative Growth in Bank Reserves vs Deposits during Pandemic
The cumulative change in deposits, in billions of dollars, is plotted on horizontal axis and the cumulative change in reserves, in billions of dollars, is plotted on the vertical access from 2019:Q4 to 2021:Q4. Deposits show a steady increase with a total cumulative change of about 5.25 trillion. Reserves also increase relatively steadily with a total cumulative change of about 1.75 trillion.
Note: Period covered is 2019:Q4 to 2021:Q4. The dashed, gray line is where the change in deposits equals the change in reserves.
Source: Federal Reserve Board Staff calculations; Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income, FFIEC 031/041/051.
Figure 4b: Cumulative Growth in Selected Bank Assets vs Deposits during Pandemic
The cumulative change in deposits, in billions of dollars, is plotted on horizontal axis from 2019:Q4 to 2021:Q4. The cumulative changes for 4 series are plotted on the vertical ais in billions of dollars: reserves, in black (circle), securities, in red (triangle), loans and leases, in blue (rhombus), and all, in gray (square). Deposits show a steady increase with a total cumulative change of about 5.25 trillion. All, reserves, and securities also show a steady increase. Both reserves and securities have a total cumulative change of about 1.75 trillion. Loans and leases remain pretty constant throughout with an uptick at the end. All ends at about 4.5 trillion, below the total cumulative change in deposits.
Note: Period covered is 2019:Q4 to 2021:Q4. The dashed, gray line is where the change in deposits equals the change in the selected asset.
Source: Federal Reserve Board Staff calculations; Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income, FFIEC 031/041/051.
Figure 5. Cumulative Growth in Bank Reserves and Deposits across QE Periods
The cumulative change in deposits, in billions of dollars, is plotted on horizontal axis. The cumulative change in reserves is plotted for three periods of QE: QE1 from 2008:Q4 to 2010:Q3, in green (rhombus), QE2 from 2010:Q4 to 2011:Q2, in teal (square), and QE3 from 2012:Q4 to 2014:Q3, in brown (triangle). Deposits show a fairly steady increase throughout for each QE period but there are some declines. Generally, for all 3 periods, the change in reserves is below the change in deposits. However, there are a few quarters where the cumulative change in reserves is equal to the cumulative change in deposits.
Note: The dashed, gray line is where the change in deposits equals the change in reserves.
Source: Federal Reserve Board Staff calculations; Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income, FFIEC 031/041/051.
Figure 6. Indexed Deposit Change by Deposit Category
Deposits, indexed to 1 at the beginning, are plotted from 2019:Q4 to 2021:Q4 for 3 categories: all, retail, and non-retail. All is in black, retail in red, and non-retail in blue. All and non-retail show a sharper increase in the beginning, during the COVID recession, but then increase at a slower rate after. Retail shows a slower increase in the beginning, during the COVID recession, but then increases at a faster rate. In 2020:Q4, retail deposits surpass all and non-retail deposits.
Note: Shaded areas indicate recessions as defined by the NBER: February 2020–April 2020. Values are indexed to 1 in 2019:Q4.
Source: Federal Reserve Board Staff calculations; Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income, FFIEC 031/041/051.
Figure 7. Indexed Deposit Change by Bank Category
Deposits, indexed to 1 at the beginning, are plotted from 2019:Q4 to 2021:Q4 for 5 categories: all banks, GSIBs, other large banks, other small banks, and community banks. All banks is in black, GSIBS in red, other large in blue, other small in green, and community in yellow. All series except other small show an increase throughout the period. Other large has the strongest increase throughout and ends at about 1.5. Community and other small show weaker increases, with other small having some small decreases in 2020:Q4, 2021:Q3, and 2021:Q4.
Note: Shaded areas indicate recessions as de fined by the NBER: February 2020–April 2020 Values are indexed to 1 in 2019:Q4. GSIB is de fined as the 6 largest BHCs, Other Large are non-GSIBs above $100 billion in total assets, Other Small have $10-$100 billion in total assets, and Community have less than $10 billion.
Source: Federal Reserve Board Staff calculations; Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income, FFIEC 031/041/051.