Accessible Version
What Did we Learn from 2 billion jabs? Early Cross-Country Evidence on the Effect of COVID-19 Vaccinations on Deaths, Mobility, and Economic Activity, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Vaccine Doses Administered in Selected Regions
Figure 1 summarizes early COVID-19 vaccination efforts of Israel, United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Europe excluding the United Kingdom, and other countries in the sample. The blue bars illustrate the heterogeneity in vaccination rates as of February 15, the gray bars illustrate vaccination rates as of April 15, and the orange bars vaccination rates as of May 15. By May 15, 2021, Israel, United Kingdom, and the United States had administered about 120, 80, and 80 doses of vaccine per 100 people, respectively, whereas the other countries in the sample had administered a smaller share of vaccine doses.
Note: Key identifies series in order from left to right. The bars show total vaccine doses administered in each country or region on the date shown in the legend.
Figure 2. Vaccinations, Deaths, Stringency, and Mobility: Fast vs. Slow Vaccinators
Figure 2 shows the behavior of vaccinations, deaths, Oxford Stringency Index, and mobility for the group of fast and slow vaccinators. The two dashed vertical lines on December 15, 2020, and on February 15, 2021, mark the beginning and the end of the period when slow vaccinators are constructed to have similar deaths, stringency, and mobility, as fast vaccinators. Between February 15 and May 15, 2021, deaths and stringency are lower, and mobility is higher, in the group of fast vaccinators. Specifically, daily deaths are 3.8 per million lower on average; the stringency index is on average 14 percent lower; and mobility is on average 5.2 percentage points higher.
Note: Dashed vertical lines show the beginning and the end of the period when slow vaccinators are constructed to have similar deaths, stringency, and mobility, as fast vaccinators. All data are expressed as 7-day moving averages. The fast vaccinators are an average of Israel, United Kingdom, and the United States. The slow vaccinators are the other countries in the sample.
Figure 3. Confidence Intervals for the Differential Effect of Vaccinations
In Figure 3, the blue line plots the actual gap in mortality rates between fast and slow vaccinators before and after the vaccination campaigns, together with confidence intervals. The decline in the mortality gap for fast vaccinators is outside the 16-84 percent bands, and significant at the 5 percent confidence level in the month of March.
Note: The blue line plots the actual difference in mortality rates between fast and slow vaccinators before and after the vaccination campaigns. The percentile lines depict the range of outcomes around the placebo effects on mortality gaps for countries where the vaccination campaigns did not take place.
Dashed vertical lines show the beginning and the end of the period when slow vaccinators are constructed to have similar deaths, stringency, and mobility, as fast vaccinators. The fast vaccinators are an average of Israel, United Kingdom, and the United States. The slow vaccinators are the other countries in the sample. Data are expressed as 7-day moving averages.