Accessible Version
What do various wage measures tell us about underlying wage growth? Accessible Data
Figure 1. Estimated Aggregate Underlying Wage Inflation (2014:M1 – 2024:M9)
| Date | Panel A: ECI-scaled Underlying Wage Inflation (3-month percent change, annualized, %) | Panel B: Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Tightness | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECI_factor | ECI_factor (lower posterior interval) | ECI_factor (upper posterior interval) | V/U ratio | Unemployment rate (%) | |
| 2014-01-01 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 6.6 |
| 2014-02-01 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
| 2014-03-01 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
| 2014-04-01 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 6.2 |
| 2014-05-01 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 6.3 |
| 2014-06-01 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 6.1 |
| 2014-07-01 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 6.2 |
| 2014-08-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 6.1 |
| 2014-09-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 5.9 |
| 2014-10-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 5.7 |
| 2014-11-01 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 5.8 |
| 2014-12-01 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 5.6 |
| 2015-01-01 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 5.7 |
| 2015-02-01 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 5.5 |
| 2015-03-01 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 5.4 |
| 2015-04-01 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 5.4 |
| 2015-05-01 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 5.6 |
| 2015-06-01 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 5.3 |
| 2015-07-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 5.2 |
| 2015-08-01 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 5.1 |
| 2015-09-01 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 5.0 |
| 2015-10-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 5.0 |
| 2015-11-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 5.1 |
| 2015-12-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 5.0 |
| 2016-01-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 4.8 |
| 2016-02-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 4.9 |
| 2016-03-01 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 5.0 |
| 2016-04-01 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 5.1 |
| 2016-05-01 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 4.8 |
| 2016-06-01 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 4.9 |
| 2016-07-01 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 4.8 |
| 2016-08-01 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 4.9 |
| 2016-09-01 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 5.0 |
| 2016-10-01 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 4.9 |
| 2016-11-01 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 4.7 |
| 2016-12-01 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 4.7 |
| 2017-01-01 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 4.7 |
| 2017-02-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| 2017-03-01 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 4.4 |
| 2017-04-01 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 4.4 |
| 2017-05-01 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 4.4 |
| 2017-06-01 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 4.3 |
| 2017-07-01 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
| 2017-08-01 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 4.4 |
| 2017-09-01 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
| 2017-10-01 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 4.2 |
| 2017-11-01 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 4.2 |
| 2017-12-01 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 4.1 |
| 2018-01-01 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2018-02-01 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 4.1 |
| 2018-03-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2018-04-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| 2018-05-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 3.8 |
| 2018-06-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| 2018-07-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| 2018-08-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| 2018-09-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| 2018-10-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| 2018-11-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| 2018-12-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| 2019-01-01 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| 2019-02-01 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| 2019-03-01 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 3.8 |
| 2019-04-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| 2019-05-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| 2019-06-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| 2019-07-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| 2019-08-01 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| 2019-09-01 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 3.5 |
| 2019-10-01 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| 2019-11-01 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| 2019-12-01 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| 2020-01-01 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 3.6 |
| 2020-02-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 3.5 |
| 2020-03-01 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 4.4 |
| 2020-04-01 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 14.8 |
| 2020-05-01 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 13.2 |
| 2020-06-01 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 11.0 |
| 2020-07-01 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 10.2 |
| 2020-08-01 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 8.4 |
| 2020-09-01 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 7.8 |
| 2020-10-01 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 6.8 |
| 2020-11-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 6.7 |
| 2020-12-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 6.7 |
| 2021-01-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 6.4 |
| 2021-02-01 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 6.2 |
| 2021-03-01 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 6.1 |
| 2021-04-01 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 6.1 |
| 2021-05-01 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 5.8 |
| 2021-06-01 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 5.9 |
| 2021-07-01 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 5.4 |
| 2021-08-01 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 5.1 |
| 2021-09-01 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 4.7 |
| 2021-10-01 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 4.5 |
| 2021-11-01 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 4.1 |
| 2021-12-01 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 3.9 |
| 2022-01-01 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
| 2022-02-01 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| 2022-03-01 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 3.6 |
| 2022-04-01 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 |
| 2022-05-01 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 3.6 |
| 2022-06-01 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| 2022-07-01 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| 2022-08-01 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| 2022-09-01 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 3.5 |
| 2022-10-01 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| 2022-11-01 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| 2022-12-01 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| 2023-02-01 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| 2023-03-01 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| 2023-05-01 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| 2023-06-01 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 3.6 |
| 2023-07-01 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 3.5 |
| 2023-08-01 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| 2023-09-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 3.8 |
| 2023-10-01 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 3.8 |
| 2023-11-01 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| 2023-12-01 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| 2024-01-01 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 3.7 |
| 2024-02-01 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 3.9 |
| 2024-03-01 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| 2024-04-01 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| 2024-05-01 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| 2024-06-01 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| 2024-07-01 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 4.3 |
| 2024-08-01 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| 2024-09-01 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
Note: Panel A displays the aggregate factor scaled by the mean and standard deviation of 12-month percent changes in the wage and salaries component of the ECI. In Panel A, the dashed lines are 95 percent posterior intervals. Panel B displays two measures of labor market tightness: the unemployment rate (right axis) and the vacancy–unemployment ratio (left axis). The shaded bar indicates period of economic recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: February 2020–April 2020.
Sources: Authors’ calculations and BLS.
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Figure 2. Underlying Wage Inflation and Measures of Labor Market Tightness of Selected Industries (2014:M1 – 2024:M9)
| Date | (Underlying Wage Inflation) | (Job Openings and Quits Rates) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panel A: Leisure and hospitality (%) | Panel B: Education and Health Services (%) | Panel C: Leisure and Hospitality (%) | Panel D: Education and Health Services (%) | |||||||
| ECI_factor | ECI_factor (lower posterior interval) | ECI_factor (upper posterior interval) | ECI_factor | ECI_factor (lower posterior interval) | ECI_factor (upper posterior interval) | Job openings | Quits | Job openings | Quits | |
| 2014-01-01 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 2014-02-01 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 2014-03-01 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2014-04-01 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2014-05-01 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2014-06-01 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2014-07-01 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 2014-08-01 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 2014-09-01 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| 2014-10-01 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| 2014-11-01 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2014-12-01 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 2015-01-01 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| 2015-02-01 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 2015-03-01 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 2015-04-01 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 2015-05-01 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| 2015-06-01 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| 2015-07-01 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| 2015-08-01 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| 2015-09-01 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| 2015-10-01 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| 2015-11-01 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| 2015-12-01 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| 2016-01-01 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| 2016-02-01 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| 2016-03-01 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| 2016-04-01 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| 2016-05-01 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| 2016-06-01 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| 2016-07-01 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| 2016-08-01 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 2016-09-01 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| 2016-10-01 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| 2016-11-01 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 |
| 2016-12-01 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| 2017-01-01 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 |
| 2017-02-01 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| 2017-03-01 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| 2017-04-01 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| 2017-05-01 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| 2017-06-01 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| 2017-07-01 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| 2017-08-01 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| 2017-09-01 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| 2017-10-01 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| 2017-11-01 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| 2017-12-01 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| 2018-01-01 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| 2018-02-01 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
| 2018-03-01 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| 2018-04-01 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 1.8 |
| 2018-05-01 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 |
| 2018-06-01 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| 2018-07-01 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| 2018-08-01 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 |
| 2018-09-01 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 |
| 2018-10-01 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 |
| 2018-11-01 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| 2018-12-01 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.1 |
| 2019-01-01 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.1 |
| 2019-02-01 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.0 |
| 2019-03-01 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 |
| 2019-04-01 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 |
| 2019-05-01 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| 2019-06-01 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 |
| 2019-07-01 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 |
| 2019-08-01 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 |
| 2019-09-01 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| 2019-10-01 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 |
| 2019-11-01 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 |
| 2019-12-01 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 |
| 2020-01-01 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 1.9 |
| 2020-02-01 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 |
| 2020-03-01 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 |
| 2020-04-01 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 |
| 2020-05-01 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| 2020-06-01 | 0.7 | -0.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| 2020-07-01 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 |
| 2020-08-01 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 |
| 2020-09-01 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| 2020-10-01 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 |
| 2020-11-01 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 |
| 2020-12-01 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 |
| 2021-01-01 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 |
| 2021-02-01 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 |
| 2021-03-01 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 |
| 2021-04-01 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 |
| 2021-05-01 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.3 |
| 2021-06-01 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 |
| 2021-07-01 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 2.4 |
| 2021-08-01 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 |
| 2021-09-01 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 |
| 2021-10-01 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 2.6 |
| 2021-11-01 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 2.6 |
| 2021-12-01 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 2.5 |
| 2022-01-01 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 2.5 |
| 2022-02-01 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 2.5 |
| 2022-03-01 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 2.5 |
| 2022-04-01 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 2.5 |
| 2022-05-01 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 2.5 |
| 2022-06-01 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 2.5 |
| 2022-07-01 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 2.4 |
| 2022-08-01 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 2.4 |
| 2022-09-01 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 2.3 |
| 2022-10-01 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 2.3 |
| 2022-11-01 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 2.3 |
| 2022-12-01 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 2.4 |
| 2023-01-01 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 2.4 |
| 2023-02-01 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 2.4 |
| 2023-03-01 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 2.4 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 2.3 |
| 2023-05-01 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 2.4 |
| 2023-06-01 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 |
| 2023-07-01 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 2.5 |
| 2023-08-01 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 2.3 |
| 2023-09-01 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 2.2 |
| 2023-10-01 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 2.2 |
| 2023-11-01 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 2.2 |
| 2023-12-01 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 2.2 |
| 2024-01-01 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 2.1 |
| 2024-02-01 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 2.1 |
| 2024-03-01 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 2.1 |
| 2024-04-01 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 |
| 2024-05-01 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 |
| 2024-06-01 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 |
| 2024-07-01 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 |
| 2024-08-01 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 |
Note: Panels A and B show the industry-level factors scaled by the mean and standard deviation of annualized 12-month percent changes in the wage and salaries component of the ECI for leisure and hospitality (Panel A) and education and health (Panel B). In Panels A and B, the dashed lines represent 95 percent posterior intervals. Panels C and D show the three-month moving averages of quits and job openings rates, expressed as fractions of the labor force, for the same industries. The three-month moving averages are used to smooth out transitory noise in the industry-level data. The shaded bar indicates period of economic recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: February 2020–April 2020.
Sources: Authors’ calculations and BLS.
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Last Update:
January 08, 2025