Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1. Weekly initial claims for regular state UI and PUA benefits (in thousands)

The chart consists of two panels: a left panel entitled “pre-pandemic” and a right panel entitled “2019–2021.” In both panels, the data are plotted at weekly frequency. The left panel plots a single blue series showing initial claims for regular UI benefits. The x-axis indicates time running from 1971 through 2019, while the y-axis indicates the number of initial claims filed each week. Over this period, initial claims for regular UI benefits ranged from a low of about 200,000 per week to a high of just under 700,000 per week. This series is clearly countercyclical: initial claims rise sharply during recessions and fall gradually during expansions, as indicated by grey vertical bars denoting recession periods. Periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, and December 2007–June 2009.

The right panel plots two series: initial claims for regular UI benefits, shown as a blue line marked with circles at each data point, and initial claims for PUA benefits, shown as an orange line marked with triangles at each data point. The x-axis indicates time running from 2019Q1 through 2021Q1, while the y-axis indicates the number of initial claims filed each week. Initial claims for regular UI benefits were low and stable at around 220,000 per week from 2019 through early March 2020, then skyrocketed to around 6 million per week in the last week of March and the first week of April. Regular UI claims fell to around 1.5 million per week by June 2020, fell further to around 800,000 per week by October 2020, and generally ranged between 700,000 and 900,000 from October 2020 through March 2021. The series showing PUA claims begins in April 2020, when the PUA program was first rolled out. PUA claims rise from low levels in early April 2020 to a peak of about 1.3 million per week in mid-May 2020, then decline gradually and unevenly to about 250,000 per week in late March 2021.

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Figure 2. Percentage of new claims passing the earnings test for UI eligibility

The chart consists of two panels: a left panel entitled “pre-pandemic” and a right panel entitled “2019–2021.” Each panel plots a single blue series showing the percentage of new claims for regular UI benefits that pass the earnings test for eligibility. In both panels, the data are plotted at quarterly frequency. The left panel plots data from 1971 through 2019 and indicates that the passage rate ranged from a low of about 75 percent to a high of about 90 percent over this period. As indicated by grey vertical bars denoting recession periods, the passage rate tends to decline sharply late in recessions and early in expansions, then recovers gradually over the rest of an expansion. Periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, and December 2007–June 2009.

The right panel plots data from 2019Q1 through 2021Q1. The passage rate was high and stable at around 90 percent throughout 2019, declined to 83 percent in 2020Q1, declined further to 69 percent in 2020Q2, and reached a low point of about 50 percent in 2020Q3 and 2020Q4. The passage rate rose slightly to 56 percent in 2021Q1.

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Figure 3. Percentage of new claims passing the earnings test, split by state application protocols

The chart consists of a single panel with three series. The x-axis indicates time running from 2019Q1 through 2021Q1, with the data plotted at quarterly frequency. The y-axis indicates the percentage of new claims for regular UI benefits that pass the earnings test for eligibility. The first series, a blue line marked with circles at each data point, shows the passage rate in states that require individuals to apply for regular UI before they may apply for PUA benefits. In these states, the passage rate was high and stable at around 90 percent throughout 2019, then fell sharply over the course of 2020 and bottomed out at 35 percent in 2021Q1. The second series, an orange line marked with triangles at each data point, shows the passage rate in states where individuals may apply directly for PUA without first applying for regular UI. In these states, the passage rate was again high and stable at around 90 percent throughout 2019, fell more modestly to a nadir of 65 percent in 2020Q3, and recovered to about 85 percent in 2021Q1. The third series, a grey line without markers, shows the passage rate in states whose PUA application protocols could not be determined. In these states, the passage rate is intermediate between the other two series: it is high and stable at around 90 percent throughout 2019, falls to a low of about 50 percent in 2020Q4, and recovers to about 65 percent in 2021Q1.

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