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Why is the Default Rate So Low? How Economic Conditions and Public Policies Have Shaped Mortgage and Auto Delinquencies During the COVID-19 Pandemic Accessible Data
Figure 1. Delinquencies were pro-cyclical in the Great Recession, but counter-cyclical During COVID-19
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| Year | Mortgage Delinquency Rate | Auto Delinquency Rate | Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006:Q1 | 0.03474 | 0.04733 | |
| 2006:Q2 | 0.03687 | 0.04227 | 0.04633 |
| 2006:Q3 | 0.04278 | 0.04633 | |
| 2006:Q4 | 0.04349 | 0.04849 | 0.04433 |
| 2007:Q1 | 0.04447 | 0.04500 | |
| 2007:Q2 | 0.04729 | 0.04777 | 0.04500 |
| 2007:Q3 | 0.05196 | 0.04667 | |
| 2007:Q4 | 0.05681 | 0.05529 | 0.04800 |
| 2008:Q1 | 0.05954 | 0.05000 | |
| 2008:Q2 | 0.06138 | 0.05358 | 0.05333 |
| 2008:Q3 | 0.06834 | 0.06000 | |
| 2008:Q4 | 0.07746 | 0.06247 | 0.06867 |
| 2009:Q1 | 0.08162 | 0.08267 | |
| 2009:Q2 | 0.08775 | 0.05732 | 0.09300 |
| 2009:Q3 | 0.09371 | 0.09633 | |
| 2009:Q4 | 0.09732 | 0.06002 | 0.09933 |
| 2010:Q1 | 0.09605 | 0.09833 | |
| 2010:Q2 | 0.09402 | 0.05057 | 0.09633 |
| 2010:Q3 | 0.09444 | 0.09467 | |
| 2010:Q4 | 0.09294 | 0.05201 | 0.09500 |
| 2011:Q1 | 0.08832 | 0.09033 | |
| 2011:Q2 | 0.08438 | 0.04443 | 0.09067 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.08613 | 0.09000 | |
| 2011:Q4 | 0.08600 | 0.04705 | 0.08633 |
| 2012:Q1 | 0.07997 | 0.08267 | |
| 2012:Q2 | 0.07881 | 0.04182 | 0.08200 |
| 2012:Q3 | 0.07837 | 0.08033 | |
| 2012:Q4 | 0.07819 | 0.04578 | 0.07800 |
| 2013:Q1 | 0.07222 | 0.07733 | |
| 2013:Q2 | 0.06620 | 0.03952 | 0.07533 |
| 2013:Q3 | 0.06492 | 0.07233 | |
| 2013:Q4 | 0.06422 | 0.04391 | 0.06933 |
| 2014:Q1 | 0.05917 | 0.06667 | |
| 2014:Q2 | 0.05504 | 0.03976 | 0.06200 |
| 2014:Q3 | 0.05548 | 0.06067 | |
| 2014:Q4 | 0.05258 | 0.04430 | 0.05700 |
| 2015:Q1 | 0.04781 | 0.05533 |
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| Month | Mortgage Delinquency | Auto Delinquency | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.03234 | 0.04476 | 0.03995 |
| February | 0.03072 | 0.04263 | 0.03795 |
| March | 0.02676 | 0.03818 | 0.04544 |
| April | 0.02431 | 0.03865 | 0.14502 |
| May | 0.02088 | 0.03465 | 0.13033 |
| June | 0.01735 | 0.03138 | 0.11235 |
| July | 0.01665 | 0.02965 | 0.10481 |
| August | 0.01548 | 0.03061 | 0.08566 |
| September | 0.01601 | 0.03241 | 0.07710 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 2. The share of borrowers with a mortgage or auto loan delinquent and/or in forbearance was pro-cyclical during COVID-19
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| Month | Mortgage Delinquency or Forbearance | Auto Delinquency or Forbearance | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.05943 | 0.05219 | 0.03995 |
| February | 0.05727 | 0.04920 | 0.03795 |
| March | 0.04721 | 0.04411 | 0.04544 |
| April | 0.07663 | 0.07465 | 0.14502 |
| May | 0.10803 | 0.10892 | 0.13033 |
| June | 0.10067 | 0.11309 | 0.11235 |
| July | 0.09134 | 0.09936 | 0.10481 |
| August | 0.08578 | 0.07562 | 0.08566 |
| September | 0.08452 | 0.06949 | 0.07710 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 3. State-level unemployment rates are positively correlated with mortgage and auto delinquency and/or forbearance rates
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| State | Mortgages | Auto Loans | State Unemployment Rate (NAS) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK | 7.7% | 5.8% | 12.3% |
| AL | 8.9% | 10.9% | 7.9% |
| AR | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% |
| AZ | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.3% |
| CA | 10.7% | 13.6% | 15.1% |
| CO | 7.7% | 13.5% | 10.7% |
| CT | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.2% |
| DC | 10.0% | 16.7% | 9.1% |
| DE | 10.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% |
| FL | 14.4% | 13.7% | 10.5% |
| GA | 12.1% | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| HI | 10.7% | 9.2% | 13.9% |
| IA | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.3% |
| ID | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% |
| IL | 9.4% | 11.3% | 14.6% |
| IN | 7.4% | 8.4% | 11.1% |
| KS | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% |
| KY | 7.2% | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| LA | 12.9% | 13.0% | 10.4% |
| MA | 8.1% | 8.8% | 17.8% |
| MD | 12.1% | 14.2% | 8.5% |
| ME | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% |
| MI | 7.5% | 7.8% | 15.0% |
| MN | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% |
| MO | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% |
| MS | 12.0% | 14.3% | 9.8% |
| MT | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% |
| NC | 9.1% | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| ND | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% |
| NE | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% |
| NH | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% |
| NJ | 14.5% | 11.6% | 16.6% |
| NM | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% |
| NV | 13.2% | 15.9% | 15.3% |
| NY | 13.8% | 11.3% | 15.5% |
| OH | 7.5% | 8.3% | 11.1% |
| OK | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.7% |
| OR | 6.6% | 8.6% | 11.7% |
| PA | 9.9% | 8.7% | 13.3% |
| RI | 9.6% | 9.7% | 12.3% |
| SC | 10.7% | 12.0% | 8.9% |
| SD | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% |
| TN | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.1% |
| TX | 12.3% | 14.9% | 8.7% |
| UT | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% |
| VA | 8.5% | 11.0% | 8.2% |
| VT | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% |
| WA | 7.0% | 12.8% | 9.9% |
| WI | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% |
| WV | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% |
| WY | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 4. Aggregate personal incomes rose during the pandemic because of the expansion of transfer income under the CARES Act
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| Month | Total Personal Income | Total Non-Transfer Income |
|---|---|---|
| January | 18973 | 15770 |
| February | 19116 | 15905 |
| March | 18764 | 15472 |
| April | 21093 | 14495 |
| May | 20246 | 14768 |
| June | 20033 | 15074 |
| July | 20215 | 15338 |
| August | 19709 | 15576 |
| September | 19856 | 15756 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts.
Figure 5. State social distancing policy stringency not consistently correlated with COVID-19 case loads
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| State | Month | Cumulative Cases Per 1,000 People | Stringency Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK | Apr-20 | 0.48 | 83.05 |
| AK | Jun-20 | 1.53 | 39.26 |
| AK | Aug-20 | 8.23 | 50.79 |
| AL | Apr-20 | 1.45 | 64.51 |
| AL | Jun-20 | 7.82 | 37.75 |
| AL | Aug-20 | 25.91 | 34.32 |
| AR | Apr-20 | 1.10 | 47.78 |
| AR | Jun-20 | 6.95 | 51.30 |
| AR | Aug-20 | 20.47 | 41.19 |
| AZ | Apr-20 | 1.10 | 60.55 |
| AZ | Jun-20 | 11.43 | 40.99 |
| AZ | Aug-20 | 29.06 | 46.26 |
| CA | Apr-20 | 1.29 | 76.85 |
| CA | Jun-20 | 5.93 | 62.04 |
| CA | Aug-20 | 18.20 | 60.37 |
| CO | Apr-20 | 2.75 | 78.52 |
| CO | Jun-20 | 5.91 | 62.13 |
| CO | Aug-20 | 10.45 | 55.53 |
| CT | Apr-20 | 7.73 | 70.37 |
| CT | Jun-20 | 12.99 | 64.63 |
| CT | Aug-20 | 14.76 | 58.57 |
| DC | Apr-20 | 6.32 | 78.70 |
| DC | Jun-20 | 15.09 | 65.19 |
| DC | Aug-20 | 20.44 | 61.50 |
| DE | Apr-20 | 4.99 | 78.61 |
| DE | Jun-20 | 12.08 | 69.20 |
| DE | Aug-20 | 18.36 | 59.71 |
| FL | Apr-20 | 1.64 | 76.08 |
| FL | Jun-20 | 7.40 | 65.22 |
| FL | Aug-20 | 30.27 | 50.40 |
| GA | Apr-20 | 2.47 | 59.01 |
| GA | Jun-20 | 7.50 | 57.41 |
| GA | Aug-20 | 24.69 | 44.86 |
| HI | Apr-20 | 0.43 | 74.07 |
| HI | Jun-20 | 0.63 | 68.52 |
| HI | Aug-20 | 5.94 | 79.15 |
| IA | Apr-20 | 2.28 | 53.92 |
| IA | Jun-20 | 9.31 | 29.57 |
| IA | Aug-20 | 20.83 | 25.86 |
| ID | Apr-20 | 1.19 | 85.19 |
| ID | Jun-20 | 3.63 | 37.05 |
| ID | Aug-20 | 19.11 | 44.07 |
| IL | Apr-20 | 4.13 | 71.85 |
| IL | Jun-20 | 11.28 | 62.06 |
| IL | Aug-20 | 18.54 | 48.54 |
| IN | Apr-20 | 2.73 | 66.02 |
| IN | Jun-20 | 7.04 | 50.03 |
| IN | Aug-20 | 14.51 | 42.20 |
| KS | Apr-20 | 1.48 | 70.00 |
| KS | Jun-20 | 5.03 | 49.63 |
| KS | Aug-20 | 14.92 | 41.64 |
| KY | Apr-20 | 1.06 | 87.40 |
| KY | Jun-20 | 3.58 | 62.84 |
| KY | Aug-20 | 11.46 | 54.99 |
| LA | Apr-20 | 6.01 | 62.04 |
| LA | Jun-20 | 12.48 | 52.78 |
| LA | Aug-20 | 31.93 | 53.29 |
| MA | Apr-20 | 9.11 | 67.59 |
| MA | Jun-20 | 15.94 | 59.69 |
| MA | Aug-20 | 18.82 | 59.26 |
| MD | Apr-20 | 3.64 | 87.04 |
| MD | Jun-20 | 11.35 | 66.79 |
| MD | Aug-20 | 18.11 | 50.67 |
| ME | Apr-20 | 0.82 | 84.23 |
| ME | Jun-20 | 2.44 | 75.00 |
| ME | Aug-20 | 3.40 | 74.76 |
| MI | Apr-20 | 4.15 | 69.04 |
| MI | Jun-20 | 7.12 | 43.36 |
| MI | Aug-20 | 11.36 | 48.31 |
| MN | Apr-20 | 0.93 | 72.60 |
| MN | Jun-20 | 6.57 | 57.50 |
| MN | Aug-20 | 13.73 | 50.90 |
| MO | Apr-20 | 1.24 | 65.43 |
| MO | Jun-20 | 3.66 | 47.62 |
| MO | Aug-20 | 14.18 | 41.18 |
| MS | Apr-20 | 2.28 | 60.00 |
| MS | Jun-20 | 9.12 | 49.07 |
| MS | Aug-20 | 27.75 | 43.28 |
| MT | Apr-20 | 0.43 | 75.99 |
| MT | Jun-20 | 0.93 | 49.07 |
| MT | Aug-20 | 7.14 | 46.80 |
| NC | Apr-20 | 1.03 | 71.51 |
| NC | Jun-20 | 6.41 | 58.33 |
| NC | Aug-20 | 16.54 | 55.70 |
| ND | Apr-20 | 1.42 | 50.74 |
| ND | Jun-20 | 4.77 | 35.19 |
| ND | Aug-20 | 15.71 | 34.23 |
| NE | Apr-20 | 2.27 | 59.24 |
| NE | Jun-20 | 10.08 | 51.11 |
| NE | Aug-20 | 18.00 | 39.41 |
| NH | Apr-20 | 1.60 | 76.85 |
| NH | Jun-20 | 4.30 | 57.65 |
| NH | Aug-20 | 5.41 | 39.76 |
| NJ | Apr-20 | 13.36 | 60.74 |
| NJ | Jun-20 | 19.54 | 56.54 |
| NJ | Aug-20 | 21.81 | 50.93 |
| NM | Apr-20 | 1.63 | 81.85 |
| NM | Jun-20 | 5.81 | 80.56 |
| NM | Aug-20 | 12.12 | 78.76 |
| NV | Apr-20 | 1.73 | 68.15 |
| NV | Jun-20 | 6.36 | 53.64 |
| NV | Aug-20 | 23.72 | 50.93 |
| NY | Apr-20 | 15.52 | 79.63 |
| NY | Jun-20 | 20.06 | 72.99 |
| NY | Aug-20 | 22.16 | 69.32 |
| OH | Apr-20 | 1.55 | 71.18 |
| OH | Jun-20 | 4.45 | 61.11 |
| OH | Aug-20 | 10.58 | 58.87 |
| OK | Apr-20 | 0.92 | 69.03 |
| OK | Jun-20 | 3.51 | 30.65 |
| OK | Aug-20 | 14.99 | 30.99 |
| OR | Apr-20 | 0.61 | 70.37 |
| OR | Jun-20 | 2.13 | 48.12 |
| OR | Aug-20 | 6.55 | 56.90 |
| PA | Apr-20 | 3.77 | 74.01 |
| PA | Jun-20 | 7.13 | 45.71 |
| PA | Aug-20 | 10.85 | 49.27 |
| RI | Apr-20 | 8.16 | 79.63 |
| RI | Jun-20 | 15.91 | 69.19 |
| RI | Aug-20 | 20.77 | 61.38 |
| SC | Apr-20 | 1.23 | 74.14 |
| SC | Jun-20 | 7.34 | 33.64 |
| SC | Aug-20 | 24.01 | 38.29 |
| SD | Apr-20 | 2.83 | 56.54 |
| SD | Jun-20 | 7.83 | 22.22 |
| SD | Aug-20 | 15.63 | 20.37 |
| TN | Apr-20 | 1.58 | 67.03 |
| TN | Jun-20 | 6.44 | 50.93 |
| TN | Aug-20 | 22.86 | 45.49 |
| TX | Apr-20 | 1.04 | 71.72 |
| TX | Jun-20 | 5.98 | 45.19 |
| TX | Aug-20 | 22.96 | 52.52 |
| UT | Apr-20 | 1.53 | 52.97 |
| UT | Jun-20 | 7.34 | 42.73 |
| UT | Aug-20 | 17.13 | 41.26 |
| VA | Apr-20 | 1.88 | 68.89 |
| VA | Jun-20 | 7.46 | 60.28 |
| VA | Aug-20 | 14.33 | 52.52 |
| VT | Apr-20 | 1.39 | 72.71 |
| VT | Jun-20 | 1.93 | 61.92 |
| VT | Aug-20 | 2.60 | 57.50 |
| WA | Apr-20 | 2.03 | 68.52 |
| WA | Jun-20 | 4.74 | 52.56 |
| WA | Aug-20 | 10.65 | 51.39 |
| WI | Apr-20 | 1.21 | 70.87 |
| WI | Jun-20 | 5.49 | 35.65 |
| WI | Aug-20 | 13.97 | 37.50 |
| WV | Apr-20 | 0.62 | 73.95 |
| WV | Jun-20 | 1.59 | 61.11 |
| WV | Aug-20 | 5.60 | 57.02 |
| WY | Apr-20 | 0.96 | 71.48 |
| WY | Jun-20 | 2.56 | 47.16 |
| WY | Aug-20 | 6.60 | 45.34 |
Source: The New York Times COVID-19 case data and Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker.
Figure 6. CARES Act income support varied in its generosity
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| State | CARES Income Support Generosity |
|---|---|
| AK | 0.14 |
| AL | 0.16 |
| AR | 0.18 |
| AZ | 0.16 |
| CA | 0.12 |
| CO | 0.11 |
| CT | 0.13 |
| DC | 0.12 |
| DE | 0.12 |
| FL | 0.12 |
| GA | 0.17 |
| HI | 0.20 |
| IA | 0.17 |
| ID | 0.15 |
| IL | 0.13 |
| IN | 0.14 |
| KS | 0.13 |
| KY | 0.20 |
| LA | 0.19 |
| MA | 0.16 |
| MD | 0.16 |
| ME | 0.22 |
| MI | 0.20 |
| MN | 0.17 |
| MO | 0.15 |
| MS | 0.19 |
| MT | 0.18 |
| NC | 0.13 |
| ND | 0.16 |
| NE | 0.13 |
| NH | 0.13 |
| NJ | 0.15 |
| NM | 0.18 |
| NV | 0.16 |
| NY | 0.15 |
| OH | 0.17 |
| OK | 0.16 |
| OR | 0.15 |
| PA | 0.19 |
| RI | 0.17 |
| SC | 0.15 |
| SD | 0.11 |
| TN | 0.14 |
| TX | 0.15 |
| UT | 0.18 |
| VA | 0.12 |
| VT | 0.17 |
| WA | 0.12 |
| WI | 0.12 |
| WV | 0.20 |
| WY | 0.11 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts.
Figure 7. Estimated Share of Active Mortgages in June Eligible for CARES Act Protection
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| State | Percent of Active Mortgages Eligible under CARES Act |
|---|---|
| AK | 89.8% |
| AL | 84.3% |
| AR | 85.1% |
| AZ | 83.4% |
| CA | 68.6% |
| CO | 78.2% |
| CT | 74.1% |
| DC | 67.5% |
| DE | 79.2% |
| FL | 76.8% |
| GA | 80.6% |
| HI | 78.7% |
| IA | 84.8% |
| ID | 82.8% |
| IL | 77.7% |
| IN | 81.3% |
| KS | 81.2% |
| KY | 78.4% |
| LA | 84.9% |
| MA | 76.9% |
| MD | 77.8% |
| ME | 84.0% |
| MI | 76.8% |
| MN | 82.0% |
| MO | 80.7% |
| MS | 80.4% |
| MT | 85.9% |
| NC | 80.6% |
| ND | 87.4% |
| NE | 81.6% |
| NH | 85.8% |
| NJ | 74.5% |
| NM | 85.5% |
| NV | 80.4% |
| NY | 68.6% |
| OH | 76.8% |
| OK | 86.2% |
| OR | 80.4% |
| PA | 76.0% |
| RI | 80.0% |
| SC | 81.0% |
| SD | 88.4% |
| TN | 81.4% |
| TX | 81.7% |
| UT | 80.6% |
| VA | 77.8% |
| VT | 85.5% |
| WA | 78.3% |
| WI | 82.8% |
| WV | 84.1% |
| WY | 85.3% |
Source: Residential Mortgage Servicing Database, Black Knight McDash Data and Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States data.
Figure 8. Economic, Health, and Policy Drivers of County-Level Rates of Delinquency and/or Forbearance on Mortgages and Auto Loans
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| Coefficient | Lower Bound | Upper Bound | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| CARES Income Support Generosity | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| CARES-Eligible Mortgage Share | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Social Distancing Policy Stringency | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics, The New York Times COVID-19 case data, Black Knight McDash data, and Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker.
Last Update:
March 04, 2021