Accessible Version

Why is the U.S. GDP recovering faster than other advanced economies? Accessible Data

Figure 1. Output loss after GFC and Covid

Top Left Panel: Canada
2007 Q4 = 100

Date Real GDP Pre-GFC Trend GFC Output Loss Pre-COVID Trend COVID Output Loss
Feb-03 89.04 N/A -5.00 N/A -4
May-03 88.91 N/A   N/A  
Aug-03 89.24 N/A   N/A  
Nov-03 89.85 N/A   N/A  
Feb-04 90.51 N/A   N/A  
May-04 91.58 N/A   N/A  
Aug-04 92.66 N/A   N/A  
Nov-04 93.33 N/A   N/A  
Feb-05 93.66 N/A   N/A  
May-05 94.33 N/A   N/A  
Aug-05 95.48 N/A   N/A  
Nov-05 96.43 N/A   N/A  
Feb-06 97.21 N/A   N/A  
May-06 97.26 N/A   N/A  
Aug-06 97.53 N/A   N/A  
Nov-06 97.92 N/A   N/A  
Feb-07 98.54 N/A   N/A  
May-07 99.50 N/A   N/A  
Aug-07 99.87 N/A   N/A  
Nov-07 100 N/A   N/A  
Feb-08 100.08 101.41   N/A  
May-08 100.44 102.06   N/A  
Aug-08 101.27 102.70   N/A  
Nov-08 100.09 103.35   N/A  
Feb-09 97.83 103.99   N/A  
May-09 96.78 104.64   N/A  
Aug-09 97.21 105.28   N/A  
Nov-09 98.34 105.93   N/A  
Feb-10 99.53 106.57   N/A  
May-10 100.05 107.22   N/A  
Aug-10 100.75 107.86   N/A  
Nov-10 101.88 108.51   N/A  
Feb-11 102.66 109.15   N/A  
May-11 102.84 109.79   N/A  
Aug-11 104.25 110.44   N/A  
Nov-11 105.08 111.08   N/A  
Feb-12 105.15 N/A   N/A  
May-12 105.49 N/A   N/A  
Aug-12 105.63 N/A   N/A  
Nov-12 105.85 N/A   N/A  
Feb-13 106.80 N/A   N/A  
May-13 107.41 N/A   N/A  
Aug-13 108.30 N/A   N/A  
Nov-13 109.43 N/A   N/A  
Feb-14 109.61 N/A   N/A  
May-14 110.61 N/A   N/A  
Aug-14 111.67 N/A   N/A  
Nov-14 112.44 N/A   N/A  
Feb-15 111.82 N/A   N/A  
May-15 111.51 N/A   N/A  
Aug-15 111.91 N/A   N/A  
Nov-15 111.99 N/A   N/A  
Feb-16 112.65 N/A   N/A  
May-16 112.09 N/A   N/A  
Aug-16 113.25 N/A   N/A  
Nov-16 113.89 N/A   N/A  
Feb-17 115.32 N/A   N/A  
May-17 116.53 N/A   N/A  
Aug-17 116.57 N/A   N/A  
Nov-17 117.16 N/A   N/A  
Feb-18 118.52 N/A   N/A  
May-18 119.45 N/A   N/A  
Aug-18 120.05 N/A   N/A  
Nov-18 120.33 N/A   N/A  
Feb-19 120.62 N/A   N/A  
May-19 121.94 N/A   N/A  
Aug-19 122.28 N/A   N/A  
Nov-19 122.63 N/A   N/A  
Feb-20 120.24 N/A   123.47  
May-20 107.02 N/A   124.13  
Aug-20 116.74 N/A   124.79  
Nov-20 118.93 N/A   125.46  
Feb-21 120.64 N/A   126.12  
May-21 120.27 N/A   126.78  
Aug-21 122.29 N/A   127.44  
Nov-21 124.21 N/A   128.10  
Feb-22 125.40 N/A   128.76  
May-22 126.58 N/A   129.42  
Aug-22 127.16 N/A   130.09  
Nov-22 126.88 N/A   130.75  
Feb-23 127.70 N/A   131.41  
May-23 127.91 N/A   132.07  
Aug-23 127.74 N/A   132.73  
Nov-23 128.06 N/A   133.39  

Top Right Panel: Euro Area
2007 Q4 = 100

Date Real GDP Pre-GFC Trend GFC Output Loss Pre-COVID Trend COVID Output Loss
Feb-03 89.28 N/A -10 N/A -5
May-03 89.36 N/A   N/A  
Aug-03 89.89 N/A   N/A  
Nov-03 90.51 N/A   N/A  
Feb-04 90.97 N/A   N/A  
May-04 91.53 N/A   N/A  
Aug-04 91.75 N/A   N/A  
Nov-04 92.09 N/A   N/A  
Feb-05 92.28 N/A   N/A  
May-05 92.86 N/A   N/A  
Aug-05 93.59 N/A   N/A  
Nov-05 94.16 N/A   N/A  
Feb-06 94.96 N/A   N/A  
May-06 96.03 N/A   N/A  
Aug-06 96.63 N/A   N/A  
Nov-06 97.75 N/A   N/A  
Feb-07 98.33 N/A   N/A  
May-07 99.05 N/A   N/A  
Aug-07 99.48 N/A   N/A  
Nov-07 100.00 N/A   N/A  
Feb-08 100.52 100.23   N/A  
May-08 100.16 100.82   N/A  
Aug-08 99.66 101.41   N/A  
Nov-08 97.85 102.00   N/A  
Feb-09 94.81 102.59   N/A  
May-09 94.77 103.18   N/A  
Aug-09 95.13 103.78   N/A  
Nov-09 95.59 104.37   N/A  
Feb-10 95.95 104.96   N/A  
May-10 96.87 105.55   N/A  
Aug-10 97.31 106.14   N/A  
Nov-10 97.88 106.73   N/A  
Feb-11 98.72 107.32   N/A  
May-11 98.73 107.91   N/A  
Aug-11 98.86 108.50   N/A  
Nov-11 98.46 109.09   N/A  
Feb-12 98.21 N/A   N/A  
May-12 97.99 N/A   N/A  
Aug-12 97.88 N/A   N/A  
Nov-12 97.43 N/A   N/A  
Feb-13 97.09 N/A   N/A  
May-13 97.63 N/A   N/A  
Aug-13 97.92 N/A   N/A  
Nov-13 98.21 N/A   N/A  
Feb-14 98.60 N/A   N/A  
May-14 98.81 N/A   N/A  
Aug-14 99.27 N/A   N/A  
Nov-14 99.62 N/A   N/A  
Feb-15 100.26 N/A   N/A  
May-15 100.74 N/A   N/A  
Aug-15 101.13 N/A   N/A  
Nov-15 101.59 N/A   N/A  
Feb-16 102.18 N/A   N/A  
May-16 102.40 N/A   N/A  
Aug-16 102.89 N/A   N/A  
Nov-16 103.70 N/A   N/A  
Feb-17 104.42 N/A   N/A  
May-17 105.25 N/A   N/A  
Aug-17 106.04 N/A   N/A  
Nov-17 106.89 N/A   N/A  
Feb-18 106.89 N/A   N/A  
May-18 107.49 N/A   N/A  
Aug-18 107.46 N/A   N/A  
Nov-18 108.20 N/A   N/A  
Feb-19 108.86 N/A   N/A  
May-19 109.24 N/A   N/A  
Aug-19 109.42 N/A   N/A  
Nov-19 109.48 N/A   N/A  
Feb-20 105.72 N/A   110.81  
May-20 93.78 N/A   111.34  
Aug-20 105.11 N/A   111.87  
Nov-20 105.08 N/A   112.40  
Feb-21 105.52 N/A   112.93  
May-21 107.73 N/A   113.46  
Aug-21 109.98 N/A   114.00  
Nov-21 110.59 N/A   114.53  
Feb-22 111.28 N/A   115.06  
May-22 112.18 N/A   115.59  
Aug-22 112.70 N/A   116.12  
Nov-22 112.69 N/A   116.65  
Feb-23 112.74 N/A   117.18  
May-23 112.90 N/A   117.72  
Aug-23 112.84 N/A   118.25  
Nov-23 112.78 N/A   118.78  

Bottom Left Panel: United Kingdom
2007 Q4 = 100

Date Real GDP Pre-GFC Trend GFC Output Loss Pre-COVID Trend COVID Output Loss
Feb-03 88.39 N/A -11 N/A -6
May-03 89.21 N/A   N/A  
Aug-03 90.01 N/A   N/A  
Nov-03 90.72 N/A   N/A  
Feb-04 91.06 N/A   N/A  
May-04 91.59 N/A   N/A  
Aug-04 91.95 N/A   N/A  
Nov-04 92.42 N/A   N/A  
Feb-05 93.10 N/A   N/A  
May-05 93.87 N/A   N/A  
Aug-05 94.61 N/A   N/A  
Nov-05 95.49 N/A   N/A  
Feb-06 95.98 N/A   N/A  
May-06 96.36 N/A   N/A  
Aug-06 96.62 N/A   N/A  
Nov-06 97.12 N/A   N/A  
Feb-07 98.03 N/A   N/A  
May-07 98.75 N/A   N/A  
Aug-07 99.41 N/A   N/A  
Nov-07 100.00 N/A   N/A  
Feb-08 100.49 100.46   N/A  
May-08 99.99 101.05   N/A  
Aug-08 98.45 101.65   N/A  
Nov-08 96.36 102.24   N/A  
Feb-09 94.40 102.83   N/A  
May-09 94.09 103.42   N/A  
Aug-09 94.15 104.02   N/A  
Nov-09 94.42 104.61   N/A  
Feb-10 95.31 105.20   N/A  
May-10 96.35 105.80   N/A  
Aug-10 96.88 106.39   N/A  
Nov-10 96.96 106.98   N/A  
Feb-11 97.21 107.57   N/A  
May-11 97.32 108.17   N/A  
Aug-11 97.62 108.76   N/A  
Nov-11 97.76 109.35   N/A  
Feb-12 98.61 N/A   N/A  
May-12 98.47 N/A   N/A  
Aug-12 99.42 N/A   N/A  
Nov-12 99.31 N/A   N/A  
Feb-13 99.59 N/A   N/A  
May-13 100.31 N/A   N/A  
Aug-13 101.15 N/A   N/A  
Nov-13 101.86 N/A   N/A  
Feb-14 102.70 N/A   N/A  
May-14 103.60 N/A   N/A  
Aug-14 104.38 N/A   N/A  
Nov-14 105.11 N/A   N/A  
Feb-15 105.42 N/A   N/A  
May-15 106.04 N/A   N/A  
Aug-15 106.46 N/A   N/A  
Nov-15 107.08 N/A   N/A  
Feb-16 107.47 N/A   N/A  
May-16 108.07 N/A   N/A  
Aug-16 108.47 N/A   N/A  
Nov-16 109.16 N/A   N/A  
Feb-17 110.08 N/A   N/A  
May-17 110.79 N/A   N/A  
Aug-17 111.50 N/A   N/A  
Nov-17 112.30 N/A   N/A  
Feb-18 112.37 N/A   N/A  
May-18 112.55 N/A   N/A  
Aug-18 112.93 N/A   N/A  
Nov-18 113.07 N/A   N/A  
Feb-19 113.90 N/A   N/A  
May-19 114.26 N/A   N/A  
Aug-19 115.09 N/A   N/A  
Nov-19 115.07 N/A   N/A  
Feb-20 111.94 N/A   116.13  
May-20 89.19 N/A   116.66  
Aug-20 104.15 N/A   117.18  
Nov-20 105.56 N/A   117.71  
Feb-21 104.48 N/A   118.24  
May-21 112.14 N/A   118.76  
Aug-21 114.06 N/A   119.29  
Nov-21 115.80 N/A   119.82  
Feb-22 116.41 N/A   120.34  
May-22 116.51 N/A   120.87  
Aug-22 116.42 N/A   121.39  
Nov-22 116.54 N/A   121.92  
Feb-23 116.74 N/A   122.45  
May-23 116.75 N/A   122.97  
Aug-23 116.62 N/A   123.50  
Nov-23 116.25 N/A   124.03  

Bottom Right Panel: United States
2007 Q4 = 100

Date Real GDP Pre-GFC Trend GFC Output Loss Pre-COVID Trend COVID Output Loss
Feb-03 86.40 N/A -9 N/A 0
May-03 87.16 N/A   N/A  
Aug-03 88.61 N/A   N/A  
Nov-03 89.64 N/A   N/A  
Feb-04 90.15 N/A   N/A  
May-04 90.85 N/A   N/A  
Aug-04 91.71 N/A   N/A  
Nov-04 92.64 N/A   N/A  
Feb-05 93.67 N/A   N/A  
May-05 94.13 N/A   N/A  
Aug-05 94.87 N/A   N/A  
Nov-05 95.40 N/A   N/A  
Feb-06 96.68 N/A   N/A  
May-06 96.93 N/A   N/A  
Aug-06 97.08 N/A   N/A  
Nov-06 97.91 N/A   N/A  
Feb-07 98.21 N/A   N/A  
May-07 98.81 N/A   N/A  
Aug-07 99.38 N/A   N/A  
Nov-07 100 N/A   N/A  
Feb-08 99.57 101.39   N/A  
May-08 100.17 102.09   N/A  
Aug-08 99.64 102.79   N/A  
Nov-08 97.46 103.50   N/A  
Feb-09 96.35 104.20   N/A  
May-09 96.18 104.90   N/A  
Aug-09 96.52 105.60   N/A  
Nov-09 97.56 106.31   N/A  
Feb-10 98.03 107.01   N/A  
May-10 98.98 107.71   N/A  
Aug-10 99.75 108.42   N/A  
Nov-10 100.27 109.12   N/A  
Feb-11 100.03 109.82   N/A  
May-11 100.71 110.52   N/A  
Aug-11 100.69 111.23   N/A  
Nov-11 101.82 111.93   N/A  
Feb-12 102.67 N/A   N/A  
May-12 103.13 N/A   N/A  
Aug-12 103.28 N/A   N/A  
Nov-12 103.40 N/A   N/A  
Feb-13 104.42 N/A   N/A  
May-13 104.70 N/A   N/A  
Aug-13 105.59 N/A   N/A  
Nov-13 106.51 N/A   N/A  
Feb-14 106.14 N/A   N/A  
May-14 107.51 N/A   N/A  
Aug-14 108.82 N/A   N/A  
Nov-14 109.37 N/A   N/A  
Feb-15 110.35 N/A   N/A  
May-15 111.04 N/A   N/A  
Aug-15 111.48 N/A   N/A  
Nov-15 111.69 N/A   N/A  
Feb-16 112.34 N/A   N/A  
May-16 112.70 N/A   N/A  
Aug-16 113.49 N/A   N/A  
Nov-16 114.12 N/A   N/A  
Feb-17 114.68 N/A   N/A  
May-17 115.32 N/A   N/A  
Aug-17 116.23 N/A   N/A  
Nov-17 117.54 N/A   N/A  
Feb-18 118.50 N/A   N/A  
May-18 119.13 N/A   N/A  
Aug-18 119.87 N/A   N/A  
Nov-18 120.04 N/A   N/A  
Feb-19 120.69 N/A   N/A  
May-19 121.69 N/A   N/A  
Aug-19 123.07 N/A   N/A  
Nov-19 123.86 N/A   N/A  
Feb-20 122.17 N/A   123.90  
May-20 112.53 N/A   124.62  
Aug-20 121.26 N/A   125.33  
Nov-20 122.52 N/A   126.05  
Feb-21 124.09 N/A   126.76  
May-21 125.98 N/A   127.48  
Aug-21 127.00 N/A   128.20  
Nov-21 129.16 N/A   128.91  
Feb-22 128.52 N/A   129.63  
May-22 128.34 N/A   130.34  
Aug-22 129.18 N/A   131.06  
Nov-22 130.00 N/A   131.77  
Feb-23 130.72 N/A   132.49  
May-23 131.39 N/A   133.20  
Aug-23 132.96 N/A   133.92  
Nov-23 134.08 N/A   134.63  

Note: The data extend through 2023:Q4. Trend lines are linear trends based on the 5 years before the recessionary episode. Red numbers show the difference between real GDP and the trend value.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 2. Overview of Economic Indicators since 2005

Left Panel: Real GDP
2019 Q4 = 100

Date U.K. U.S. Euro Area Canada
Feb-16 93.39 90.70 93.34 91.86
May-16 93.92 90.99 93.54 91.40
Aug-16 94.27 91.63 93.99 92.35
Nov-16 94.87 92.14 94.73 92.87
Feb-17 95.67 92.59 95.39 94.04
May-17 96.28 93.11 96.15 95.03
Aug-17 96.90 93.84 96.87 95.06
Nov-17 97.60 94.90 97.64 95.54
Feb-18 97.65 95.67 97.64 96.65
May-18 97.81 96.18 98.19 97.40
Aug-18 98.14 96.78 98.16 97.89
Nov-18 98.26 96.92 98.84 98.12
Feb-19 98.98 97.44 99.44 98.36
May-19 99.30 98.25 99.79 99.44
Aug-19 100.02 99.36 99.95 99.72
Nov-19 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Feb-20 97.28 98.64 96.57 98.05
May-20 77.51 90.85 85.67 87.26
Aug-20 90.51 97.90 96.01 95.19
Nov-20 91.74 98.92 95.99 96.98
Feb-21 90.80 100.19 96.39 98.38
May-21 97.45 101.71 98.41 98.07
Aug-21 99.13 102.54 100.46 99.72
Nov-21 100.63 104.28 101.02 101.28
Feb-22 101.17 103.76 101.64 102.26
May-22 101.25 103.61 102.47 103.22
Aug-22 101.17 104.30 102.95 103.69
Nov-22 101.28 104.96 102.94 103.47
Feb-23 101.51 105.54 102.99 104.13
May-23 101.52 106.08 103.13 104.30
Aug-23 101.39 107.35 103.06 104.17
Nov-23 101.04 108.20 103.02 104.42

Middle Panel: Final Consumption
2019 Q4 = 100

Date U.K. Canada U.S. Euro Area
Feb-16 94.54 91.26 91.44 94.69
May-16 95.16 91.84 91.84 94.97
Aug-16 95.81 92.29 92.45 95.34
Nov-16 95.74 92.82 92.84 95.89
Feb-17 96.32 93.79 93.36 96.15
May-17 96.44 94.70 93.74 96.57
Aug-17 97.02 95.56 94.27 97.11
Nov-17 97.41 96.18 95.20 97.50
Feb-18 97.83 96.90 95.80 97.86
May-18 97.75 97.57 96.30 98.12
Aug-18 98.47 98.06 96.80 98.11
Nov-18 99.57 98.25 97.12 98.57
Feb-19 99.82 98.52 97.36 99.18
May-19 100.43 98.68 98.33 99.34
Aug-19 100.22 99.24 99.34 99.93
Nov-19 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Feb-20 97.01 98.45 98.77 96.75
May-20 75.42 87.39 92.19 87.16
Aug-20 90.00 96.54 98.44 97.44
Nov-20 89.96 97.29 99.38 95.76
Feb-21 87.85 97.88 101.53 94.61
May-21 97.29 97.94 104.05 97.35
Aug-21 99.65 101.43 104.64 100.58
Nov-21 100.14 102.12 105.48 100.92
Feb-22 100.97 102.91 105.35 101.01
May-22 100.61 104.53 105.71 101.51
Aug-22 100.04 105.02 106.15 102.37
Nov-22 99.84 105.06 106.55 101.99
Feb-23 100.30 105.86 107.58 101.96
May-23 101.26 105.77 107.80 102.11
Aug-23 100.91 106.36 108.68 102.53
Nov-23 100.73 106.42 109.41 102.75

Right Panel: Investment
2019 Q4 = 100, 4qma

Date U.K. Canada U.S. Euro Area
Feb-16 94.79 92.99 87.88 85.62
May-16 94.85 91.69 87.72 85.65
Aug-16 96.63 91.76 87.57 86.61
Nov-16 95.20 91.03 88.08 87.55
Feb-17 95.45 92.19 88.56 87.97
May-17 97.12 93.37 89.49 90.42
Aug-17 96.05 95.06 90.68 91.33
Nov-17 97.14 97.81 91.80 91.86
Feb-18 97.53 99.55 93.26 92.59
May-18 97.52 100.76 94.44 91.98
Aug-18 97.39 100.65 95.92 93.06
Nov-18 97.52 100.06 96.90 94.88
Feb-19 102.48 99.93 97.85 95.84
May-19 102.81 99.41 98.88 98.09
Aug-19 103.30 99.61 99.55 98.43
Nov-19 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Feb-20 94.13 99.22 99.75 101.65
May-20 84.81 93.96 96.47 96.94
Aug-20 82.92 91.59 96.15 95.07
Nov-20 88.84 91.08 96.78 92.49
Feb-21 90.69 91.80 97.58 91.50
May-21 97.21 98.19 100.90 94.95
Aug-21 99.92 100.63 101.71 96.50
Nov-21 96.18 103.08 103.18 97.96
Feb-22 100.26 105.24 105.24 98.63
May-22 106.22 107.58 106.97 99.69
Aug-22 103.75 110.67 107.58 101.74
Nov-22 102.99 110.56 107.15 102.13
Feb-23 99.17 108.93 105.93 102.09
May-23 96.80 106.71 105.82 102.35
Aug-23 99.53 104.42 106.76 101.78
Nov-23 102.68 103.13 107.59 101.50

Note: The data extend through 2023:Q4.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 3. Government Fiscal support in Selected Advanced Economies

Left Panel: Overall Government Balance
Percent of GDP

Year Canada Euro Area U.K. U.S.
2005 1.55 -2.60 -3.11 -3.07
2006 1.83 -1.52 -2.75 -2.03
2007 1.82 -0.65 -2.64 -2.91
2008 0.18 -2.16 -5.11 -6.60
2009 -3.88 -6.24 -10.02 -13.17
2010 -4.74 -6.28 -9.19 -10.98
2011 -3.31 -4.26 -7.46 -9.70
2012 -2.52 -3.76 -7.61 -8.10
2013 -1.49 -2.91 -5.50 -4.55
2014 0.17 -2.50 -5.54 -4.05
2015 -0.06 -1.94 -4.54 -3.53
2016 -0.45 -1.47 -3.33 -4.37
2017 -0.11 -0.92 -2.37 -4.80
2018 0.36 -0.43 -2.18 -5.32
2019 -0.02 -0.65 -2.23 -5.74
2020 -10.91 -7.08 -13.01 -14.00
2021 -4.38 -5.27 -8.26 -11.62
2022 -0.81 -3.59 -5.51 -3.71
2023 -0.73 -3.45 -4.46 -8.24

Source: International Monetary Fund.

Right Panel: Cumulative Government Support (share of GDP, in deviation from pre-crisis average)
Percent

Spain France U.K. U.S. Germany Canada
10.03 10.97 14.51 15.24 15.77 16.38

Note: Calculated as the difference between primary government balance and the 2015-19 average.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 4. Discretionary Fiscal Support and Correlation with GDP Deviation from Trend

Left Panel: IMF Additional Spending & Forgone Revenue
Percent of GDP

Spain France Italy Germany Canada U.K. U.S.
8.39 9.64 10.90 15.32 15.92 19.27 25.50

Note: Estimates from Jan. 2020 to Sept. 2021. Numbers in US dollars and percent of GDP are based on October 2021 World Economic Outlook'.

Source: IMF; FRB staff calculations.

Right Panel: Spending and GDP Deviation

Country Country Code GDP Deviation Discretionary Fiscal Support
Spain SP -6.91 8.39
Sweden SD -2.08 4.15
U.S. US -1.25 25.50
U.K. UK -7.15 19.27
Australia AL -0.49 18.37
Austria AU -5.14 15.20
Canada CA -3.99 15.92
Cyprus CP -8.38 8.27
Finland FN -5.90 4.78
France FR -5.02 9.64
Germany GE -6.32 15.32
Iceland IC -8.02 10.15
Italy IT -2.97 10.90
Japan JA -2.69 16.73

Note: GDP loss is calculated the deviation of 2023 GDP from the 2015-2019 average. Spending is calculated as the additional spending and forgone revenue from January 2020 to September 2021.

Source: IMF; FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 5. Changes in Policy Rates and Pass-Through to Mortgage Rates

Policy Rate Increases to Date
Percentage points

Canada Euro Area U.K. U.S.
4.75 4.5 5.15 5.25

Note: Cumulative policy rate increase from the beginning of the hiking episode to present.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

Right Panel: Policy Rate Pass-Through to Outstanding Household Mortgages
Interest rate change as percent of policy rate change

Canada Euro Area U.K. U.S.
4.75 4.5 5.15 5.25

Note: Pass-through to outstanding household mortgage rates calculated as of January 2024 for the euro area U.K., Canada, and December 2023 for the U.S. The mortgage rates are the weighted average rates of oustanding, household mortgages among banks except for the U.S. where it is calculated as the effective mortgage interest rate on residential housing. The euro-area mortgage rate is the monetary financial institutions (MFIs) harmonized interest rate.

Source: S&P Capital IQ; mortgages: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; national central banks.

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Figure 6. Labor Productivity and Labor Market Dynamics

Left Panel: Contribution to Cumulative GDP: from 2019:Q4 to 2023:Q4
Percentage points

Component Euro Area U.K. Canada U.S.
Output per Hour 0.56 1.36 -0.08 5.69
Hours per Employee -1.34 -1.00 -1.43 1.46
Employment 3.79 0.67 5.93 1.10

Note: Output per hour is GDP divided by total hours worked Employment is all employed persons in the euro area and U.S., those aged 15 years or older in Canada, and those aged 16 years or older in the U.K.. Hours per employee is the total number of hours worked divided by employment.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

Middle Panel: Civilian Unemployment Rate
Percent of labor force
Frequency: Monthly

Date Canada Euro Area U.K. U.S.
Jan-05 6.90 9.30 4.80 5.30
Feb-05 7.00 9.30 4.70 5.40
Mar-05 6.90 9.30 4.70 5.20
Apr-05 6.70 9.40 4.80 5.20
May-05 7.00 9.30 4.80 5.10
Jun-05 6.80 9.30 4.70 5.00
Jul-05 6.70 9.20 4.70 5.00
Aug-05 6.70 9.20 4.70 4.90
Sep-05 6.70 9.20 4.90 5.00
Oct-05 6.70 9.20 5.10 5.00
Nov-05 6.30 9.10 5.10 5.00
Dec-05 6.60 9.10 5.10 4.90
Jan-06 6.70 9.00 5.20 4.70
Feb-06 6.60 8.90 5.20 4.80
Mar-06 6.50 8.80 5.30 4.70
Apr-06 6.50 8.70 5.40 4.70
May-06 6.20 8.60 5.50 4.60
Jun-06 6.30 8.50 5.50 4.60
Jul-06 6.50 8.40 5.50 4.70
Aug-06 6.50 8.40 5.50 4.70
Sep-06 6.50 8.30 5.50 4.50
Oct-06 6.30 8.20 5.40 4.40
Nov-06 6.50 8.20 5.50 4.50
Dec-06 6.30 8.00 5.50 4.40
Jan-07 6.40 8.00 5.50 4.60
Feb-07 6.30 7.90 5.50 4.50
Mar-07 6.30 7.80 5.50 4.40
Apr-07 6.30 7.70 5.40 4.50
May-07 6.20 7.70 5.40 4.40
Jun-07 6.10 7.60 5.30 4.60
Jul-07 6.00 7.60 5.30 4.70
Aug-07 6.00 7.60 5.30 4.60
Sep-07 6.00 7.50 5.20 4.70
Oct-07 6.00 7.50 5.20 4.70
Nov-07 6.10 7.40 5.20 4.70
Dec-07 6.20 7.40 5.20 5.00
Jan-08 6.10 7.40 5.20 5.00
Feb-08 6.10 7.40 5.20 4.90
Mar-08 6.20 7.30 5.30 5.10
Apr-08 6.20 7.50 5.20 5.00
May-08 6.20 7.50 5.40 5.40
Jun-08 6.10 7.60 5.50 5.60
Jul-08 6.20 7.60 5.70 5.80
Aug-08 6.20 7.70 5.90 6.10
Sep-08 6.30 7.80 6.00 6.10
Oct-08 6.40 7.90 6.20 6.50
Nov-08 6.70 8.10 6.40 6.80
Dec-08 7.00 8.40 6.50 7.30
Jan-09 7.50 8.70 6.70 7.80
Feb-09 8.10 9.10 7.10 8.30
Mar-09 8.30 9.30 7.30 8.70
Apr-09 8.40 9.50 7.60 9.00
May-09 8.60 9.60 7.80 9.40
Jun-09 8.80 9.70 7.90 9.50
Jul-09 8.80 9.80 7.90 9.50
Aug-09 8.80 9.90 7.80 9.60
Sep-09 8.50 10.00 7.90 9.80
Oct-09 8.50 10.10 7.80 10.00
Nov-09 8.60 10.10 7.80 9.90
Dec-09 8.60 10.10 7.70 9.90
Jan-10 8.40 10.20 7.90 9.80
Feb-10 8.40 10.30 8.00 9.80
Mar-10 8.30 10.30 8.00 9.90
Apr-10 8.20 10.40 7.90 9.90
May-10 8.10 10.30 7.90 9.60
Jun-10 8.00 10.30 7.80 9.40
Jul-10 8.20 10.30 7.80 9.40
Aug-10 8.20 10.20 7.80 9.50
Sep-10 8.20 10.20 7.90 9.50
Oct-10 8.10 10.30 7.90 9.40
Nov-10 7.80 10.20 7.90 9.80
Dec-10 7.80 10.20 7.90 9.30
Jan-11 7.80 10.10 7.80 9.10
Feb-11 7.80 10.10 7.80 9.00
Mar-11 7.80 10.10 7.70 9.00
Apr-11 7.80 10.00 7.80 9.10
May-11 7.70 10.10 7.90 9.00
Jun-11 7.70 10.10 8.00 9.10
Jul-11 7.40 10.20 8.20 9.00
Aug-11 7.40 10.30 8.30 9.00
Sep-11 7.40 10.50 8.40 9.00
Oct-11 7.50 10.60 8.50 8.80
Nov-11 7.60 10.70 8.40 8.60
Dec-11 7.50 10.80 8.40 8.50
Jan-12 7.70 10.90 8.30 8.30
Feb-12 7.60 11.00 8.20 8.30
Mar-12 7.30 11.20 8.20 8.20
Apr-12 7.40 11.30 8.10 8.20
May-12 7.50 11.40 8.00 8.20
Jun-12 7.40 11.50 8.00 8.20
Jul-12 7.30 11.60 7.90 8.20
Aug-12 7.40 11.60 7.90 8.10
Sep-12 7.40 11.70 7.90 7.80
Oct-12 7.40 11.90 7.80 7.80
Nov-12 7.30 12.00 7.80 7.70
Dec-12 7.20 12.00 7.80 7.90
Jan-13 7.10 12.20 8.00 8.00
Feb-13 7.00 12.20 7.90 7.70
Mar-13 7.30 12.20 7.80 7.50
Apr-13 7.20 12.20 7.80 7.60
May-13 7.00 12.20 7.80 7.50
Jun-13 7.20 12.20 7.70 7.50
Jul-13 7.30 12.10 7.70 7.30
Aug-13 7.20 12.10 7.60 7.20
Sep-13 7.10 12.10 7.40 7.20
Oct-13 7.20 12.10 7.20 7.20
Nov-13 7.10 12.10 7.20 6.90
Dec-13 7.40 12.00 7.20 6.70
Jan-14 7.20 12.00 6.90 6.60
Feb-14 7.20 12.00 6.80 6.70
Mar-14 7.10 11.90 6.60 6.70
Apr-14 7.10 11.80 6.50 6.20
May-14 7.30 11.80 6.30 6.30
Jun-14 7.10 11.60 6.20 6.10
Jul-14 7.10 11.70 6.00 6.20
Aug-14 7.00 11.60 6.00 6.10
Sep-14 7.00 11.60 6.00 5.90
Oct-14 6.80 11.60 5.90 5.70
Nov-14 6.80 11.60 5.70 5.80
Dec-14 6.70 11.50 5.70 5.60
Jan-15 6.80 11.40 5.60 5.70
Feb-15 6.90 11.30 5.60 5.50
Mar-15 6.80 11.30 5.50 5.40
Apr-15 6.90 11.20 5.70 5.40
May-15 6.80 11.10 5.60 5.60
Jun-15 6.90 11.10 5.60 5.30
Jul-15 6.90 10.90 5.40 5.20
Aug-15 7.00 10.80 5.40 5.10
Sep-15 7.10 10.70 5.20 5.00
Oct-15 7.00 10.70 5.10 5.00
Nov-15 7.10 10.60 5.10 5.10
Dec-15 7.20 10.60 5.10 5.00
Jan-16 7.30 10.50 5.20 4.80
Feb-16 7.30 10.40 5.10 4.90
Mar-16 7.20 10.30 5.10 5.00
Apr-16 7.30 10.30 5.00 5.10
May-16 7.00 10.20 5.00 4.80
Jun-16 6.90 10.20 4.90 4.90
Jul-16 6.90 10.00 5.00 4.80
Aug-16 6.90 10.00 4.90 4.90
Sep-16 7.00 9.90 4.90 5.00
Oct-16 6.90 9.90 4.90 4.90
Nov-16 6.80 9.90 4.80 4.70
Dec-16 6.90 9.70 4.80 4.70
Jan-17 6.80 9.60 4.70 4.70
Feb-17 6.60 9.50 4.60 4.60
Mar-17 6.70 9.50 4.60 4.40
Apr-17 6.50 9.30 4.50 4.40
May-17 6.60 9.30 4.50 4.40
Jun-17 6.50 9.10 4.40 4.30
Jul-17 6.30 9.10 4.40 4.30
Aug-17 6.20 9.00 4.30 4.40
Sep-17 6.20 8.90 4.30 4.30
Oct-17 6.40 8.80 4.30 4.20
Nov-17 6.10 8.70 4.40 4.20
Dec-17 6.00 8.70 4.40 4.10
Jan-18 5.90 8.70 4.30 4.00
Feb-18 6.00 8.60 4.30 4.10
Mar-18 5.80 8.50 4.30 4.00
Apr-18 5.80 8.40 4.20 4.00
May-18 5.90 8.30 4.10 3.80
Jun-18 6.00 8.20 4.10 4.00
Jul-18 5.90 8.10 4.10 3.80
Aug-18 6.00 8.00 4.20 3.80
Sep-18 5.80 8.00 4.10 3.70
Oct-18 5.70 8.00 4.10 3.80
Nov-18 5.70 7.90 4.10 3.80
Dec-18 5.70 7.90 4.00 3.90
Jan-19 5.70 7.90 4.00 4.00
Feb-19 5.80 7.80 3.90 3.80
Mar-19 5.90 7.70 3.90 3.80
Apr-19 5.70 7.70 3.90 3.70
May-19 5.40 7.60 4.00 3.60
Jun-19 5.60 7.50 3.90 3.60
Jul-19 5.80 7.50 4.00 3.70
Aug-19 5.80 7.50 3.90 3.60
Sep-19 5.60 7.40 3.90 3.50
Oct-19 5.60 7.40 3.90 3.60
Nov-19 5.90 7.50 3.90 3.60
Dec-19 5.60 7.50 4.00 3.60
Jan-20 5.50 7.50 4.10 3.60
Feb-20 5.70 7.30 4.10 3.50
Mar-20 8.40 7.20 4.20 4.40
Apr-20 13.60 7.40 4.20 14.80
May-20 14.10 7.60 4.20 13.20
Jun-20 12.40 8.10 4.40 11.00
Jul-20 11.00 8.50 4.70 10.20
Aug-20 10.20 8.60 5.00 8.40
Sep-20 9.20 8.60 5.20 7.80
Oct-20 9.00 8.40 5.20 6.80
Nov-20 8.70 8.20 5.30 6.70
Dec-20 8.90 8.20 5.30 6.70
Jan-21 9.20 8.20 5.20 6.40
Feb-21 8.50 8.20 5.10 6.20
Mar-21 7.70 8.20 5.00 6.10
Apr-21 8.20 8.30 5.00 6.10
May-21 8.30 8.10 4.80 5.80
Jun-21 7.90 7.90 4.70 5.90
Jul-21 7.40 7.70 4.60 5.40
Aug-21 7.10 7.50 4.40 5.10
Sep-21 7.00 7.40 4.30 4.70
Oct-21 6.50 7.20 4.20 4.50
Nov-21 6.10 7.10 4.20 4.10
Dec-21 5.90 7.00 4.10 3.90
Jan-22 6.50 6.90 4.00 4.00
Feb-22 5.50 6.80 3.90 3.80
Mar-22 5.40 6.80 4.00 3.60
Apr-22 5.30 6.70 3.90 3.70
May-22 5.20 6.70 3.90 3.60
Jun-22 5.00 6.70 3.70 3.60
Jul-22 4.80 6.70 3.60 3.50
Aug-22 5.20 6.70 3.80 3.60
Sep-22 5.10 6.70 3.90 3.50
Oct-22 5.10 6.60 3.80 3.60
Nov-22 5.10 6.60 3.90 3.60
Dec-22 5.00 6.70 3.80 3.50
Jan-23 5.00 6.60 3.90 3.40
Feb-23 5.10 6.60 4.00 3.60
Mar-23 5.10 6.50 3.90 3.50
Apr-23 5.10 6.50 4.00 3.40
May-23 5.30 6.50 4.20 3.70
Jun-23 5.40 6.50 4.30 3.60
Jul-23 5.50 6.50 4.20 3.50
Aug-23 5.50 6.50 4.10 3.80
Sep-23 5.60 6.50 4.00 3.80
Oct-23 5.70 6.60 3.90 3.80
Nov-23 5.80 6.50 3.80 3.70
Dec-23 5.80 6.50 4.00 3.70
Jan-24 5.70 6.50 N/A 3.70
Feb-24 5.80 N/A N/A 3.90

Note: Latest values are February for Canada and the U.S., January for the euro area, and the U.K. is 3-month moving average with January as the end point.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

Right Panel: Sectoral Reallocation Index
Index
Frequency: Quarterly

Date Euro Area U.S.
Feb-05 0.00 0.00
May-05 0.01 0.00
Aug-05 0.01 0.00
Nov-05 0.01 0.00
Feb-06 0.01 0.00
May-06 0.01 0.00
Aug-06 0.01 0.00
Nov-06 0.01 0.00
Feb-07 0.01 0.01
May-07 0.01 0.01
Aug-07 0.00 0.01
Nov-07 0.01 0.01
Feb-08 0.00 0.01
May-08 0.00 0.01
Aug-08 0.01 0.01
Nov-08 0.01 0.01
Feb-09 0.01 0.02
May-09 0.01 0.02
Aug-09 0.01 0.01
Nov-09 0.01 0.01
Feb-10 0.01 0.01
May-10 0.01 0.00
Aug-10 0.01 0.00
Nov-10 0.00 0.00
Feb-11 0.00 0.01
May-11 0.00 0.00
Aug-11 0.00 0.00
Nov-11 0.00 0.00
Feb-12 0.00 0.00
May-12 0.00 0.00
Aug-12 0.00 0.00
Nov-12 0.00 0.00
Feb-13 0.01 0.00
May-13 0.01 0.00
Aug-13 0.00 0.00
Nov-13 0.00 0.00
Feb-14 0.00 0.00
May-14 0.00 0.00
Aug-14 0.00 0.00
Nov-14 0.00 0.00
Feb-15 0.00 0.00
May-15 0.00 0.00
Aug-15 0.00 0.00
Nov-15 0.00 0.00
Feb-16 0.00 0.00
May-16 0.00 0.00
Aug-16 0.00 0.00
Nov-16 0.00 0.00
Feb-17 0.00 0.00
May-17 0.00 0.00
Aug-17 0.00 0.00
Nov-17 0.00 0.00
Feb-18 0.00 0.00
May-18 0.00 0.00
Aug-18 0.00 0.00
Nov-18 0.00 0.00
Feb-19 0.00 0.00
May-19 0.00 0.00
Aug-19 0.00 0.00
Nov-19 0.00 0.00
Feb-20 0.01 0.03
May-20 0.01 0.02
Aug-20 0.01 0.01
Nov-20 0.01 0.01
Feb-21 0.01 0.02
May-21 0.00 0.01
Aug-21 0.00 0.01
Nov-21 0.01 0.01
Feb-22 0.01 0.01
May-22 0.00 0.01
Aug-22 0.00 0.00
Nov-22 0.00 0.00
Feb-23 0.00 0.00
May-23 0.00 0.00
Aug-23 0.00 0.00

Note: The reallocation index is calculated using year-over-year growth rates of employment from SIC industry classification.

Source: Statistical Office of European Communities, Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics, FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 7. Business Dynamism

Left Panel: New Business Registration
Index; 2019:Q4 = 100

Date Euro Area U.S.
Mar-15 85.84 78.88
Jun-15 85.58 76.12
Sep-15 86.96 78.51
Dec-15 87.05 77.88
Mar-16 88.08 81.40
Jun-16 89.29 78.92
Sep-16 86.87 84.25
Dec-16 85.92 83.65
Mar-17 89.12 86.63
Jun-17 87.05 87.22
Sep-17 89.12 87.93
Dec-17 90.24 90.82
Mar-18 93.09 96.07
Jun-18 92.75 96.61
Sep-18 91.45 96.77
Dec-18 95.16 96.54
Mar-19 101.04 96.58
Jun-19 96.98 96.14
Sep-19 99.05 95.28
Dec-19 100.00 100.00
Mar-20 90.24 93.02
Jun-20 69.78 100.43
Sep-20 103.80 161.64
Dec-20 102.25 127.86
Mar-21 101.64 150.89
Jun-21 107.08 159.71
Sep-21 103.80 143.41
Dec-21 105.79 142.43
Mar-22 103.54 140.19
Jun-22 102.07 139.73
Sep-22 103.63 139.71
Dec-22 104.92 141.06
Mar-23 105.70 146.77
Jun-23 108.89 149.56
Sep-23 109.33 155.95
Dec-23 108.12 153.09

Note: Data extend through 2023:Q4.

Source: Haver Analytics.

Right Panel: Bankruptcy Declarations
2019:Q4 = 100

Date Euro Area U.S.
Feb-16 99.68 109.02
May-16 101.41 114.44
Aug-16 95.89 97.99
Nov-16 90.69 99.19
Feb-17 90.15 100.05
May-17 92.32 111.45
Aug-17 92.42 92.61
Nov-17 95.45 100.26
Feb-18 96.43 99.25
May-18 99.57 95.92
Aug-18 97.62 90.25
Nov-18 99.03 102.50
Feb-19 100.65 98.28
May-19 96.32 101.52
Aug-19 102.81 97.95
Nov-19 100.00 100.00
Feb-20 86.69 104.20
May-20 65.37 90.23
Aug-20 77.16 96.66
Nov-20 78.90 86.90
Feb-21 92.97 74.07
May-21 81.71 65.69
Aug-21 82.90 55.09
Nov-21 82.79 55.32
Feb-22 86.04 53.66
May-22 86.36 58.21
Aug-22 108.98 61.75
Nov-22 98.92 61.61
Feb-23 103.57 71.13
May-23 113.42 79.73
Aug-23 102.71 85.00
Nov-23 103.35 94.36

Note: The data extend through 2023:Q4.

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

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Figure 8. Industrial Production

Euro-area Industrial Production
Dec. 2019 = 100

Date Energy Intensive Headline
Jan-19 106.03 104.14
Feb-19 105.66 103.73
Mar-19 106.37 103.93
Apr-19 105.68 103.83
May-19 104.04 104.14
Jun-19 103.71 102.69
Jul-19 103.64 102.69
Aug-19 103.30 102.90
Sep-19 101.54 102.90
Oct-19 102.03 103.42
Nov-19 101.34 102.17
Dec-19 100.00 100.00
Jan-20 102.36 102.69
Feb-20 102.63 102.59
Mar-20 90.42 91.20
Apr-20 76.34 74.22
May-20 85.32 84.27
Jun-20 90.97 91.72
Jul-20 94.35 96.48
Aug-20 98.57 97.00
Sep-20 98.91 97.10
Oct-20 100.03 100.10
Nov-20 102.07 103.11
Dec-20 102.90 102.07
Jan-21 103.51 104.04
Feb-21 101.19 102.80
Mar-21 103.64 103.73
Apr-21 103.78 104.66
May-21 103.67 103.00
Jun-21 103.79 101.45
Jul-21 103.89 104.76
Aug-21 103.54 102.17
Sep-21 103.57 102.59
Oct-21 104.41 103.00
Nov-21 104.69 103.93
Dec-21 104.58 106.00
Jan-22 103.75 105.18
Feb-22 104.34 105.80
Mar-22 103.89 104.14
Apr-22 102.96 103.42
May-22 102.65 105.80
Jun-22 102.19 104.97
Jul-22 100.64 104.24
Aug-22 100.34 107.97
Sep-22 99.74 108.49
Oct-22 98.01 106.83
Nov-22 97.87 106.94
Dec-22 96.23 102.90
Jan-23 96.71 106.31
Feb-23 96.45 108.59
Mar-23 96.10 102.59
Apr-23 95.90 103.52
May-23 96.80 103.31
Jun-23 95.60 103.73
Jul-23 95.19 102.07
Aug-23 94.98 102.28
Sep-23 94.93 101.66
Oct-23 93.78 101.14
Nov-23 93.81 101.45
Dec-23 93.77 103.11
Jan-24 92.64 100.00

Source: Haver Analytics; ECB; FRB staff calculations.

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Last Update: May 17, 2024