Corporate Buybacks and Capital Investment: An International Perspective, Accessible Data

Figure 1: United States - Investment and Buybacks as Ratio of GDP

Percent of GDP

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Date U.S. Net Buybacks U.S. Dividen.d.s U.S. Investment
1960:Q1 -0.26 n.d. 7.44
1960:Q2 -0.28 n.d. 7.55
1960:Q3 -0.29 n.d. 7.38
1960:Q4 -0.18 1.69 7.39
1961:Q1 -0.49 n.d. 7.22
1961:Q2 -0.84 n.d. 7.21
1961:Q3 -0.26 n.d. 7.13
1961:Q4 0.07 1.72 7.17
1962:Q1 -0.03 n.d. 7.12
1962:Q2 -0.1 n.d. 7.24
1962:Q3 -0.05 n.d. 7.25
1962:Q4 -0.07 1.74 7.18
1963:Q1 0 n.d. 7.11
1963:Q2 0 n.d. 7.23
1963:Q3 -0.06 n.d. 7.3
1963:Q4 0.26 1.74 7.41
1964:Q1 -0.37 n.d. 7.39
1964:Q2 -0.46 n.d. 7.49
1964:Q3 -0.1 n.d. 7.61
1964:Q4 0.26 1.85 7.75
1965:Q1 0.03 n.d. 8.01
1965:Q2 -0.18 n.d. 8.21
1965:Q3 -0.01 n.d. 8.36
1965:Q4 0.17 1.99 8.55
1966:Q1 0.06 n.d. 8.7
1966:Q2 -0.74 n.d. 8.87
1966:Q3 -0.13 n.d. 8.89
1966:Q4 0.18 1.84 8.83
1967:Q1 -0.12 n.d. 8.61
1967:Q2 -0.22 n.d. 8.59
1967:Q3 -0.33 n.d. 8.48
1967:Q4 -0.42 1.81 8.58
1968:Q1 -0.16 n.d. 8.64
1968:Q2 -0.22 n.d. 8.38
1968:Q3 0.2 n.d. 8.42
1968:Q4 0.24 1.77 8.61
1969:Q1 -0.13 n.d. 8.67
1969:Q2 -0.17 n.d. 8.7
1969:Q3 -0.39 n.d. 8.81
1969:Q4 -0.63 1.6 8.79
1970:Q1 -0.5 n.d. 8.72
1970:Q2 -0.45 n.d. 8.65
1970:Q3 -0.4 n.d. 8.57
1970:Q4 -0.76 1.41 8.33
1971:Q1 -0.69 n.d. 8.12
1971:Q2 -1.15 n.d. 8.14
1971:Q3 -1.3 n.d. 8.1
1971:Q4 -0.77 1.29 8.24
1972:Q1 -0.73 n.d. 8.36
1972:Q2 -1.08 n.d. 8.34
1972:Q3 -0.8 n.d. 8.36
1972:Q4 -0.8 1.19 8.52
1973:Q1 -0.51 n.d. 8.58
1973:Q2 -0.61 n.d. 8.76
1973:Q3 -0.35 n.d. 8.92
1973:Q4 -0.72 0.9 8.88
1974:Q1 -0.41 n.d. 9.04
1974:Q2 -0.33 n.d. 9.11
1974:Q3 0 n.d. 9.22
1974:Q4 -0.32 0.91 9.11
1975:Q1 -0.48 n.d. 8.76
1975:Q2 -0.78 n.d. 8.54
1975:Q3 -0.4 n.d. 8.43
1975:Q4 -0.69 0.99 8.4
1976:Q1 -0.69 n.d. 8.42
1976:Q2 -0.75 n.d. 8.52
1976:Q3 -0.39 n.d. 8.7
1976:Q4 -0.42 1.1 8.8
1977:Q1 0.03 n.d. 9.06
1977:Q2 -0.08 n.d. 9.17
1977:Q3 -0.21 n.d. 9.25
1977:Q4 -0.25 1.11 9.49
1978:Q1 0.29 n.d. 9.52
1978:Q2 -0.12 n.d. 9.83
1978:Q3 -0.03 n.d. 10.04
1978:Q4 -0.1 1.06 10.16
1979:Q1 0.26 n.d. 10.36
1979:Q2 0.48 n.d. 10.3
1979:Q3 0.28 n.d. 10.53
1979:Q4 0.17 0.75 10.53
1980:Q1 -0.2 n.d. 10.67
1980:Q2 -0.12 n.d. 10.42
1980:Q3 -0.35 n.d. 10.47
1980:Q4 -0.75 0.93 10.38
1981:Q1 -0.1 n.d. 10.33
1981:Q2 0.17 n.d. 10.61
1981:Q3 0.82 n.d. 10.7
1981:Q4 0.76 1.21 11.08
1982:Q1 0.23 n.d. 11.02
1982:Q2 -0.08 n.d. 10.61
1982:Q3 0.22 n.d. 10.26
1982:Q4 -0.58 1.17 9.99
1983:Q1 -0.66 n.d. 9.59
1983:Q2 -1.03 n.d. 9.4
1983:Q3 -0.23 n.d. 9.5
1983:Q4 -0.31 1.16 9.79
1984:Q1 1.61 n.d. 9.8
1984:Q2 2.62 n.d. 10.01
1984:Q3 1.75 n.d. 10.13
1984:Q4 1.84 1.11 10.2
1985:Q1 2.05 n.d. 10.08
1985:Q2 1.63 n.d. 10.06
1985:Q3 1.77 n.d. 9.74
1985:Q4 2.31 1.1 9.81
1986:Q1 1.34 n.d. 9.59
1986:Q2 1.92 n.d. 9.34
1986:Q3 1.84 n.d. 9.12
1986:Q4 2.3 1.16 9.1
1987:Q1 0.92 n.d. 8.69
1987:Q2 1.59 n.d. 8.65
1987:Q3 1.43 n.d. 8.72
1987:Q4 2.23 0.98 8.55
1988:Q1 1.98 n.d. 8.58
1988:Q2 2.68 n.d. 8.62
1988:Q3 1.57 n.d. 8.55
1988:Q4 3.59 1.13 8.56
1989:Q1 3.12 n.d. 8.55
1989:Q2 1.75 n.d. 8.57
1989:Q3 2.56 n.d. 8.77
1989:Q4 1.38 1.29 8.74
1990:Q1 1.17 n.d. 8.84
1990:Q2 0.8 n.d. 8.73
1990:Q3 1.23 n.d. 8.85
1990:Q4 1.01 1.2 8.82
1991:Q1 0.1 n.d. 8.7
1991:Q2 -0.2 n.d. 8.57
1991:Q3 -0.31 n.d. 8.41
1991:Q4 -0.76 1.26 8.33
1992:Q1 -0.72 n.d. 8.2
1992:Q2 -0.55 n.d. 8.34
1992:Q3 -0.18 n.d. 8.36
1992:Q4 -0.21 1.43 8.43
1993:Q1 -0.12 n.d. 8.43
1993:Q2 -0.34 n.d. 8.49
1993:Q3 -0.47 n.d. 8.45
1993:Q4 -0.31 1.45 8.61
1994:Q1 0.13 n.d. 8.62
1994:Q2 0.03 n.d. 8.63
1994:Q3 0.68 n.d. 8.73
1994:Q4 1.58 1.7 8.98
1995:Q1 0.58 n.d. 9.34
1995:Q2 0.72 n.d. 9.43
1995:Q3 0.99 n.d. 9.42
1995:Q4 0.75 1.65 9.47
1996:Q1 0.77 n.d. 9.54
1996:Q2 -0.17 n.d. 9.55
1996:Q3 1.38 n.d. 9.73
1996:Q4 0.36 1.78 9.81
1997:Q1 0.66 n.d. 9.91
1997:Q2 0.69 n.d. 9.92
1997:Q3 1.05 n.d. 10.15
1997:Q4 1.18 1.91 10
1998:Q1 0.98 n.d. 10.04
1998:Q2 0.79 n.d. 10.09
1998:Q3 2.84 n.d. 10.06
1998:Q4 4.77 2.07 10.08
1999:Q1 0.29 n.d. 10.13
1999:Q2 3.21 n.d. 10.29
1999:Q3 1.08 n.d. 10.38
1999:Q4 0.02 1.59 10.24
2000:Q1 -1.08 n.d. 10.53
2000:Q2 1.97 n.d. 10.66
2000:Q3 0.41 n.d. 10.74
2000:Q4 3.2 1.44 10.68
2001:Q1 0.18 n.d. 10.36
2001:Q2 0.56 n.d. 10.02
2001:Q3 1.03 n.d. 9.91
2001:Q4 0.04 1.25 9.53
2002:Q1 0.02 n.d. 8.9
2002:Q2 -0.22 n.d. 8.62
2002:Q3 1.04 n.d. 8.46
2002:Q4 0.03 1.44 8.33
2003:Q1 0.51 n.d. 8.27
2003:Q2 0.18 n.d. 8.39
2003:Q3 0.1 n.d. 8.35
2003:Q4 0.1 1.54 8.35
2004:Q1 0.13 n.d. 8.06
2004:Q2 0.72 n.d. 8.16
2004:Q3 1.31 n.d. 8.29
2004:Q4 0.86 1.98 8.39
2005:Q1 1.48 n.d. 8.57
2005:Q2 1.96 n.d. 8.65
2005:Q3 3.04 n.d. 8.69
2005:Q4 2.66 1.43 8.71
2006:Q1 3.49 n.d. 8.97
2006:Q2 3.59 n.d. 9.06
2006:Q3 3.19 n.d. 9.15
2006:Q4 4.07 2.32 9.19
2007:Q1 3.22 n.d. 9.18
2007:Q2 4.58 n.d. 9.3
2007:Q3 4.94 n.d. 9.34
2007:Q4 6.72 2.13 9.43
2008:Q1 2.54 n.d. 9.53
2008:Q2 1.24 n.d. 9.43
2008:Q3 2.12 n.d. 9.25
2008:Q4 2.7 1.97 9.08
2009:Q1 0.96 n.d. 8.39
2009:Q2 -0.95 n.d. 7.97
2009:Q3 -0.47 n.d. 7.76
2009:Q4 1.85 1.1 7.57
2010:Q1 1.14 n.d. 7.68
2010:Q2 1.28 n.d. 7.86
2010:Q3 2.25 n.d. 7.95
2010:Q4 2.01 1.06 8.07
2011:Q1 1.93 n.d. 8.13
2011:Q2 3.08 n.d. 8.23
2011:Q3 4 n.d. 8.54
2011:Q4 2.69 1.46 8.69
2012:Q1 1.48 n.d. 8.82
2012:Q2 2.66 n.d. 8.96
2012:Q3 2.15 n.d. 8.91
2012:Q4 2.24 2.02 8.96
2013:Q1 1.3 n.d. 8.91
2013:Q2 2.24 n.d. 9.02
2013:Q3 2.05 n.d. 9.03
2013:Q4 2.84 1.82 9.1
2014:Q1 3 n.d. 9.34
2014:Q2 1.6 n.d. 9.36
2014:Q3 2.47 n.d. 9.36
2014:Q4 2.01 2.01 9.32
2015:Q1 3.33 n.d. 9.29
2015:Q2 2.72 n.d. 9.17
2015:Q3 3.46 n.d. 9.18
2015:Q4 2.94 2.16 9.06
2016:Q1 3.39 n.d. 8.93
2016:Q2 3.54 n.d. 8.85
2016:Q3 3.57 n.d. 8.74
2016:Q4 1.71 n.d. 8.72

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Figure 2: Buybacks, Dividends, and Investment GDP Weighted Average*

Percent of GDP

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Date Net Buybacks, GDP weighted Dividen.d.s, GDP weighted Investment, GDP weighted
1995 -0.7 2.96 11.87
1996 -0.91 2.99 11.82
1997 -0.87 3.09 12.1
1998 -0.9 3.25 11.88
1999 -2.3 3.05 11.99
2000 -3.39 2.76 12.36
2001 -1.19 2.85 11.42
2002 -1.08 2.98 10.68
2003 -1.08 3.1 10.53
2004 -1.08 3.33 10.6
2005 -0.82 3.3 11.04
2006 -0.14 3.72 11.43
2007 -0.72 3.74 11.67
2008 -1 3.86 11.6
2009 -1.41 3.23 9.89
2010 -0.49 2.99 10.3
2011 0.23 3.18 10.75
2012 0.28 3.32 11.09
2013 0.41 3.31 11
2014 0.68 3.54 11.17

* Average across economies, weighted by share of nominal GDP. Return to text.

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Figure 3: Buybacks, Dividends, and Investment - OECD Median

Percent of GDP

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Date Net Buybacks, OECD Median Dividen.d.s, OECD Median Investment, OECD Median
1995 -1.89 2.57 11.62
1996 -2.8 2.49 11.96
1997 -3.11 2.65 12.67
1998 -3.85 2.94 13.43
1999 -4.7 2.81 13.44
2000 -5.81 2.99 13.5
2001 -3.17 3.12 13.14
2002 -1.93 3 12.07
2003 -3.07 3.26 11.76
2004 -2.52 4.13 11.59
2005 -2.8 3.95 12.23
2006 -2.47 3.99 12.34
2007 -3.43 4.88 13.49
2008 -2.07 4.24 13.8
2009 -1.92 3.61 12.02
2010 -1 3.86 11.44
2011 -1.87 4.07 11.63
2012 -1.05 4 12.34
2013 -1.04 4.24 12.46
2014 -1.31 4.77 12.11

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Figure 4: Buybacks+Dividends vs. Real Investment

Change in Real Investment/K(-1) Between 2002-2008 an.d. 2009-2014

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Case Country Change in Real Investment Change in Real Net Buybacks+Dividen.d.s
1 GBR -1.42 0.57
2 AUT -0.67 1.55
3 BEL -0.2 2.56
4 DNK -0.71 3.88
5 FRA -0.29 0.73
6 DEU -0.07 -0.12
7 ITA -1.08 -1.12
8 NLD -0.17 0.34
9 NOR 0.27 -0.21
10 SWE -0.26 0.32
11 JPN -0.33 0.13
12 FIN -0.81 -0.61
13 GRC -0.78 0.26
14 IRL -0.47 2.53
15 PRT -1.72 2.45
16 ESP -2.26 1.18
17 KOR -0.83 0.47
18 SVK -0.96 1
19 EST -3.82 1.04
20 SVN -2.2 0.31
21 POL 0.14 2.12
22 USA -0.11 -0.23
23 CHE -0.1 1.28
24 CAN -0.17 0.14
25 CZE -0.31 1.27
26 HUN -0.73 6.24

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Figure 5: Out of Sample Forecast For I/K(-1)
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Date Upper St. Dev., OECD Lower St. Dev., OECD Forecast, OECD Data, OECD Upper St. Dev., U.S. Lower St. Dev., U.S. Forecast, U.S. Data, U.S. Upper St. Dev., Canada Lower St. Dev., Canada Forecast, Canada Data, Canada Upper St. Dev., France Lower St. Dev., France Forecast, France Data, France Upper St. Dev., Germany Lower St. Dev., Germany Forecast, Germany Data, Germany Upper St. Dev., Italy Lower St. Dev., Italy Forecast, Italy Data, Italy Upper St. Dev., Japan Lower St. Dev., Japan Forecast, Japan Data, Japan Upper St. Dev., U.K. Lower St. Dev., U.K. Forecast, U.K. Data, U.K.
1995 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
1996 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
1997 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
1998 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
1999 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
2000 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
2001 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
2002 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
2003 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2004 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2005 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
2006 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2007 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2008 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
2009 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05
2010 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05
2011 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
2012 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
2013 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
2014 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

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Figure 6: Real Buybacks+Dividends vs. Investment Forecast Error

Investment Forecast Error

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Case Country Investment Forecast Error Change in Real Net Buybacks+Dividen.d.s
1 GBR 0 0.57
2 AUT -0.03 1.55
3 BEL -0.01 2.56
4 DNK -0.01 3.88
5 FRA 0 0.73
6 DEU -0.02 -0.12
7 ITA -0.01 -1.12
8 NLD 0.02 0.34
9 NOR 0 -0.21
10 SWE -0.01 0.32
11 JPN -0.04 0.13
12 FIN 0.01 -0.61
13 GRC 0.1 0.26
14 IRL 0.21 2.53
15 PRT -0.04 2.45
16 ESP -0.04 1.18
17 KOR -0.05 0.47
18 SVK -0.05 1
19 EST -0.05 1.04
20 SVN -0.1 0.31
21 POL -0.02 2.12
22 USA 0 -0.23
23 CHE -0.01 1.28
24 CAN 0.01 0.14
25 CZE 0.01 1.27
26 HUN 0 6.24

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Last Update: April 11, 2017