How vulnerable are EME corporates? Accessible Data

Figure 1: EME* Nonfinancial Corporate Debt

Percent of GDP

Period EME EME ex. China China
2007q1 59.4 39.4 102.0
2007q2 58.3 40.1 102.6
2007q3 58.6 40.8 101.5
2007q4 58.1 40.9 98.7
2008q1 59.1 41.7 99.3
2008q2 59.0 41.4 98.8
2008q3 60.5 42.0 98.5
2008q4 63.7 44.2 98.1
2009q1 69.6 45.5 109.4
2009q2 70.7 44.7 117.4
2009q3 71.9 45.5 120.1
2009q4 71.8 45.4 120.5
2010q1 71.5 44.4 121.7
2010q2 72.6 44.0 123.0
2010q3 71.8 43.8 122.8
2010q4 71.9 44.0 122.2
2011q1 71.6 43.5 122.5
2011q2 71.5 43.4 122.0
2011q3 74.2 44.2 120.6
2011q4 75.4 44.5 121.6
2012q1 75.5 44.1 124.7
2012q2 78.3 45.2 126.9
2012q3 78.7 44.9 129.4
2012q4 80.4 45.5 131.9
2013q1 83.1 46.2 137.1
2013q2 86.2 47.1 139.4
2013q3 88.4 48.2 141.7
2013q4 89.6 48.7 142.2
2014q1 91.0 49.0 146.4
2014q2 92.1 49.1 149.5
2014q3 94.6 49.6 149.9
2014q4 98.1 51.1 151.6
2015q1 101.5 51.5 155.3
2015q2 102.5 51.6 157.4
2015q3 106.2 52.5 159.8
2015q4 109.2 53.4 164.5
2016q1 109.8 53.1 167.9
2016q2 108.8 52.5 168.6
2016q3 108.3 52.4 168.2
2016q4 107.9 51.5 168.3
2017q1 106.4 51.0 167.5
2017q2 106.1 50.3 166.0
2017q3 106.1 50.3 166.0


* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey. Return to text

** Asian financial crisis is GDP-weighted average of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand in 1996.

Source: Bank for International Settlements; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 2: Global Debt at Risk and Corporate Defaults

Period Debt at Risk (Percent of Total Debt) Default Rate (Percent)
2005 14.1 0.6
2006 13.2 0.6
2007 12.1 0.3
2008 15.8 2.5
2009 18.6 5.0
2010 13.2 1.2
2011 12.6 0.9
2012 14.5 1.2
2013 14.7 1.2
2014 14.0 0.9
2015 15.5 1.8
2016 15.9 2.1
2017 12.3 1.4


Note: Debt at risk is debt of firms with ratio of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense less than 2.

Source: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 3: Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt at Risk, 2017:Q3

Percent of Total Debt

Country/Region 2016q3 2017q3
EME 35.4 23.0
EME ex. China 23.8 17.5
China 39.3 25.8
Argentina 50.5 42.7
India 32.4 40.6
Brazil 33.1 30.8
Turkey 20.3 25.5
Indonesia 35.7 19.6
Mexico 40.9 13.9
Thailand 7.9 11.2
Malaysia 9.6 10.9
S. Africa 8.2 9.2
S. Korea 19.8 6.9
Chile 8.2 6.6
Poland 7.7 5.4
Russia 16.6 4.7
Hungary 1.7 0.1


Note: Debt at risk is debt of firms with ratio of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense less than 2.

* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.

** Asian financial crisis is GDP-weighted average of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand in 1996.

Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 4: Interest Coverage Ratio

4-quarter moving average

Percent

Period EME EME ex. China China
2007q1 7.5 7.1 8.8
2007q2 7.4 7.1 8.5
2007q3 7.4 7.0 8.4
2007q4 7.3 7.0 8.4
2008q1 7.3 7.0 8.2
2008q2 7.3 7.0 8.0
2008q3 7.2 7.0 7.6
2008q4 6.8 6.8 7.0
2009q1 6.4 6.4 6.5
2009q2 5.9 5.8 6.1
2009q3 5.5 5.2 6.0
2009q4 5.4 5.0 6.5
2010q1 5.6 5.0 7.2
2010q2 6.0 5.2 8.0
2010q3 6.5 5.6 8.6
2010q4 6.8 5.9 9.0
2011q1 7.0 6.2 9.1
2011q2 7.2 6.4 9.0
2011q3 7.2 6.5 8.8
2011q4 7.2 6.6 8.3
2012q1 7.0 6.6 7.7
2012q2 6.6 6.4 7.0
2012q3 6.3 6.3 6.4
2012q4 6.1 6.1 6.1
2013q1 5.9 5.9 5.9
2013q2 5.9 5.9 5.8
2013q3 5.8 5.8 5.8
2013q4 5.7 5.7 5.7
2014q1 5.6 5.6 5.5
2014q2 5.4 5.5 5.4
2014q3 5.2 5.4 5.1
2014q4 5.1 5.3 4.9
2015q1 4.9 5.2 4.7
2015q2 4.7 5.0 4.4
2015q3 4.4 4.9 4.1
2015q4 4.2 4.8 3.9
2016q1 4.0 4.7 3.7
2016q2 3.9 4.6 3.5
2016q3 3.9 4.6 3.6
2016q4 4.1 4.7 3.7
2017q1 4.3 4.8 3.9
2017q2 4.5 4.9 4.2
2017q3 4.7 5.1 4.5


Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense. Average borrowing cost is interest expense as a percentage of total debt. Return on assets is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization as a percent of total assets. Financial leverage is total debt to total assets.

* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.

Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 5: Return on Assets

4-quarter moving average

Percent

Period EME EME ex. China China
2006q3 14.0% 15.2% 11.4
2006q4 13.8% 15.1% 11.2
2007q1 13.8% 15.0% 11.6
2007q2 13.6% 14.7% 11.4
2007q3 13.4% 14.5% 11.3
2007q4 13.3% 14.5% 11.1
2008q1 13.2% 14.6% 10.8
2008q2 13.3% 14.8% 10.5
2008q3 13.5% 15.3% 10.3
2008q4 13.4% 15.7% 9.9
2009q1 13.0% 15.6% 9.4
2009q2 12.2% 14.7% 8.8
2009q3 11.0% 13.2% 8.3
2009q4 10.3% 11.9% 8.1
2010q1 9.9% 11.3% 8.2
2010q2 10.2% 11.6% 8.5
2010q3 10.5% 12.1% 8.7
2010q4 10.8% 12.3% 9.0
2011q1 10.8% 12.3% 9.1
2011q2 10.8% 12.2% 9.1
2011q3 10.8% 12.4% 9.1
2011q4 10.8% 12.5% 8.9
2012q1 10.6% 12.5% 8.7
2012q2 10.4% 12.3% 8.4
2012q3 10.0% 12.0% 8.1
2012q4 9.7% 11.6% 7.8
2013q1 9.5% 11.4% 7.6
2013q2 9.3% 11.4% 7.4
2013q3 9.2% 11.3% 7.3
2013q4 9.0% 11.1% 7.2
2014q1 8.9% 11.0% 7.2
2014q2 8.8% 10.7% 7.3
2014q3 8.6% 10.6% 7.3
2014q4 8.4% 10.7% 7.0
2015q1 8.1% 10.8% 6.7
2015q2 7.7% 10.8% 6.2
2015q3 7.4% 10.8% 5.9
2015q4 7.0% 10.6% 5.6
2016q1 6.7% 10.3% 5.3
2016q2 6.4% 10.3% 5.1
2016q3 6.3% 10.2% 5.0
2016q4 6.3% 10.2% 5.0
2017q1 6.4% 10.4% 5.0
2017q2 6.5% 10.4% 5.1
2017q3 6.8% 10.4% 5.4


Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense. Average borrowing cost is interest expense as a percentage of total debt. Return on assets is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization as a percent of total assets. Financial leverage is total debt to total assets.

* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.

Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 6: Financial Leverage

4-quarter moving average

Ratio

Period EME EME ex. China China
2007q1 0.265 0.267 0.260
2007q2 0.264 0.266 0.259
2007q3 0.261 0.265 0.255
2007q4 0.259 0.263 0.251
2008q1 0.260 0.265 0.252
2008q2 0.261 0.265 0.253
2008q3 0.266 0.268 0.261
2008q4 0.274 0.275 0.272
2009q1 0.280 0.282 0.278
2009q2 0.287 0.289 0.284
2009q3 0.289 0.294 0.284
2009q4 0.287 0.293 0.279
2010q1 0.284 0.289 0.278
2010q2 0.282 0.286 0.277
2010q3 0.280 0.282 0.278
2010q4 0.280 0.280 0.280
2011q1 0.280 0.279 0.282
2011q2 0.280 0.277 0.283
2011q3 0.281 0.279 0.284
2011q4 0.284 0.280 0.288
2012q1 0.288 0.283 0.292
2012q2 0.293 0.288 0.298
2012q3 0.296 0.289 0.304
2012q4 0.298 0.289 0.307
2013q1 0.300 0.290 0.310
2013q2 0.302 0.291 0.313
2013q3 0.302 0.293 0.311
2013q4 0.304 0.297 0.310
2014q1 0.306 0.300 0.311
2014q2 0.308 0.303 0.312
2014q3 0.311 0.305 0.315
2014q4 0.316 0.309 0.320
2015q1 0.319 0.313 0.322
2015q2 0.320 0.317 0.322
2015q3 0.324 0.321 0.326
2015q4 0.327 0.324 0.328
2016q1 0.328 0.325 0.330
2016q2 0.330 0.325 0.332
2016q3 0.329 0.322 0.332
2016q4 0.327 0.318 0.330
2017q1 0.325 0.314 0.329
2017q2 0.322 0.309 0.327
2017q3 0.321 0.303 0.329


Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense. Average borrowing cost is interest expense as a percentage of total debt. Return on assets is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization as a percent of total assets. Financial leverage is total debt to total assets.

* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.

Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 7: Average Borrowing Cost

4-quarter moving average

Percent

Period EME EME ex. China China
2007q1 7.0 7.9 5.1
2007q2 6.9 7.8 5.2
2007q3 6.9 7.8 5.3
2007q4 7.0 7.8 5.3
2008q1 7.0 7.9 5.2
2008q2 7.0 8.0 5.2
2008q3 7.1 8.2 5.2
2008q4 7.2 8.5 5.2
2009q1 7.3 8.7 5.2
2009q2 7.2 8.7 5.1
2009q3 6.9 8.5 4.9
2009q4 6.6 8.2 4.5
2010q1 6.2 7.9 4.2
2010q2 6.0 7.7 3.8
2010q3 5.8 7.6 3.6
2010q4 5.6 7.4 3.6
2011q1 5.5 7.2 3.5
2011q2 5.3 6.9 3.6
2011q3 5.3 6.8 3.7
2011q4 5.3 6.7 3.8
2012q1 5.3 6.7 3.9
2012q2 5.3 6.7 4.0
2012q3 5.3 6.6 4.1
2012q4 5.3 6.6 4.2
2013q1 5.3 6.7 4.2
2013q2 5.3 6.6 4.1
2013q3 5.2 6.6 4.1
2013q4 5.2 6.6 4.1
2014q1 5.2 6.6 4.2
2014q2 5.3 6.5 4.4
2014q3 5.3 6.5 4.5
2014q4 5.3 6.6 4.5
2015q1 5.2 6.7 4.4
2015q2 5.2 6.8 4.4
2015q3 5.1 6.8 4.4
2015q4 5.1 6.8 4.4
2016q1 5.0 6.8 4.4
2016q2 5.0 6.9 4.3
2016q3 4.9 6.9 4.2
2016q4 4.8 6.9 4.0
2017q1 4.6 6.9 3.9
2017q2 4.5 6.9 3.7
2017q3 4.5 6.8 3.7


Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense. Average borrowing cost is interest expense as a percentage of total debt. Return on assets is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization as a percent of total assets. Financial leverage is total debt to total assets.

* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.

Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 8: Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt at Risk

Percent of GDP

  2016q3 2017q3
EME 38.3 24.4
EME ex. China 12.5 8.8
China 66.1 42.8
India 15.9 18.4
Turkey 12.9 17.5
Brazil 14.5 12.8
Malaysia 6.4 7.4
S. Korea 20.2 6.9
Chile 8.3 6.6
Thailand 3.9 5.5
Argentina 6.3 5.5
Indonesia 8.2 4.4
Mexico 11.1 3.6
S. Africa 3.1 3.5
Poland 3.7 2.6
Russia 8.8 2.4
Hungary 1.2 0.1


Note: Debt at risk is debt of firms with ratio of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense less than 2. GDP is gross domestic product.

* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.

** Asian financial crisis is GDP-weighted average of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand in 1996.

Source: Bank for International Settlements; Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 9: Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt at Risk, 2017:Q3

  Current With 100 basis point increase in average borrowing cost With additional earnings and exchange rate depreciation shocks**
EME 24.42647362 33.82984161 49.01053619
EME ex. China 8.795577049 10.52344227 15.58876324
China 42.83759689 62.07728958 88.01226044
India 18.37251091 19.48233604 21.12230301
Turkey 17.48054123 20.61868668 26.01152992
Brazil 12.80068302 15.60658741 21.76333046
Malaysia 7.406004429 11.10455036 24.36151695
S. Korea 6.857490063 10.07717705 18.43734741
Chile 6.576182842 10.20085621 16.25245094
Thailand 5.52073431 8.235971451 12.17254639
Argentina 5.468087196 5.622689247 6.336498737
Indonesia 4.430025578 4.694220066 11.91161251
Mexico 3.566121817 3.708420277 4.820976734
S. Africa 3.514886618 3.752265215 16.80732536
Poland 2.629755735 4.648963451 6.407379627
Russia 2.429852724 3.226649523 4.32379818
Hungary 0.102444269 0.102444269 0.102444269


Note: Debt at risk is debt of firms with ratio of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense less than 2. GDP is gross domestic product.

* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.

** Shocks include a 20 percent fall in earnings and a 20 percent depreciation of the local currency against the dollar. Return to text

*** Asian financial crisis is GDP-weighted average of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand in 1996.

Source: Ayala, Nedelijkovic, and Saborowski (2015); Bank for International Settlements; Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Figure 10: Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Interest Coverage Ratios, 2017:Q3

Ratio

  Current With 100 basis point increase in average borrowing cost With additional 20 percent fall in earnings With additional exchange rate depreciation shock
EME 5.0 4.1 3.3 3.2
EME ex. China 5.3 4.6 3.7 3.4
China 4.8 3.8 3.0 3.0
India 4.1 3.6 2.8 2.8
Turkey 3.9 3.4 2.7 2.5
Brazil 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.9
Malaysia 9.2 7.4 5.9 5.7
S. Korea 6.5 5.7 4.5 4.4
Chile 5.9 4.8 3.8 3.5
Thailand 7.9 6.3 5.0 4.8
Argentina 3.7 3.4 2.7 2.5
Indonesia 5.3 4.6 3.7 3.3
Mexico 4.7 4.0 3.2 2.9
S. Africa 5.3 4.6 3.6 3.5
Poland 11.5 9.2 7.3 6.6
Russia 9.2 7.8 6.3 5.7
Hungary 9.6 8.6 6.8 6.0


Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense.

* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.

Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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Last Update: June 19, 2018