Accessible Version
How vulnerable are EME corporates? Accessible Data
Figure 1: EME* Nonfinancial Corporate Debt
Percent of GDP
Period | EME | EME ex. China | China |
---|---|---|---|
2007q1 | 59.4 | 39.4 | 102.0 |
2007q2 | 58.3 | 40.1 | 102.6 |
2007q3 | 58.6 | 40.8 | 101.5 |
2007q4 | 58.1 | 40.9 | 98.7 |
2008q1 | 59.1 | 41.7 | 99.3 |
2008q2 | 59.0 | 41.4 | 98.8 |
2008q3 | 60.5 | 42.0 | 98.5 |
2008q4 | 63.7 | 44.2 | 98.1 |
2009q1 | 69.6 | 45.5 | 109.4 |
2009q2 | 70.7 | 44.7 | 117.4 |
2009q3 | 71.9 | 45.5 | 120.1 |
2009q4 | 71.8 | 45.4 | 120.5 |
2010q1 | 71.5 | 44.4 | 121.7 |
2010q2 | 72.6 | 44.0 | 123.0 |
2010q3 | 71.8 | 43.8 | 122.8 |
2010q4 | 71.9 | 44.0 | 122.2 |
2011q1 | 71.6 | 43.5 | 122.5 |
2011q2 | 71.5 | 43.4 | 122.0 |
2011q3 | 74.2 | 44.2 | 120.6 |
2011q4 | 75.4 | 44.5 | 121.6 |
2012q1 | 75.5 | 44.1 | 124.7 |
2012q2 | 78.3 | 45.2 | 126.9 |
2012q3 | 78.7 | 44.9 | 129.4 |
2012q4 | 80.4 | 45.5 | 131.9 |
2013q1 | 83.1 | 46.2 | 137.1 |
2013q2 | 86.2 | 47.1 | 139.4 |
2013q3 | 88.4 | 48.2 | 141.7 |
2013q4 | 89.6 | 48.7 | 142.2 |
2014q1 | 91.0 | 49.0 | 146.4 |
2014q2 | 92.1 | 49.1 | 149.5 |
2014q3 | 94.6 | 49.6 | 149.9 |
2014q4 | 98.1 | 51.1 | 151.6 |
2015q1 | 101.5 | 51.5 | 155.3 |
2015q2 | 102.5 | 51.6 | 157.4 |
2015q3 | 106.2 | 52.5 | 159.8 |
2015q4 | 109.2 | 53.4 | 164.5 |
2016q1 | 109.8 | 53.1 | 167.9 |
2016q2 | 108.8 | 52.5 | 168.6 |
2016q3 | 108.3 | 52.4 | 168.2 |
2016q4 | 107.9 | 51.5 | 168.3 |
2017q1 | 106.4 | 51.0 | 167.5 |
2017q2 | 106.1 | 50.3 | 166.0 |
2017q3 | 106.1 | 50.3 | 166.0 |
* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey. Return to text
** Asian financial crisis is GDP-weighted average of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand in 1996.
Source: Bank for International Settlements; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.
Figure 2: Global Debt at Risk and Corporate Defaults
Period | Debt at Risk (Percent of Total Debt) | Default Rate (Percent) |
---|---|---|
2005 | 14.1 | 0.6 |
2006 | 13.2 | 0.6 |
2007 | 12.1 | 0.3 |
2008 | 15.8 | 2.5 |
2009 | 18.6 | 5.0 |
2010 | 13.2 | 1.2 |
2011 | 12.6 | 0.9 |
2012 | 14.5 | 1.2 |
2013 | 14.7 | 1.2 |
2014 | 14.0 | 0.9 |
2015 | 15.5 | 1.8 |
2016 | 15.9 | 2.1 |
2017 | 12.3 | 1.4 |
Note: Debt at risk is debt of firms with ratio of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense less than 2.
Source: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.
Figure 3: Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt at Risk, 2017:Q3
Percent of Total Debt
Country/Region | 2016q3 | 2017q3 |
---|---|---|
EME | 35.4 | 23.0 |
EME ex. China | 23.8 | 17.5 |
China | 39.3 | 25.8 |
Argentina | 50.5 | 42.7 |
India | 32.4 | 40.6 |
Brazil | 33.1 | 30.8 |
Turkey | 20.3 | 25.5 |
Indonesia | 35.7 | 19.6 |
Mexico | 40.9 | 13.9 |
Thailand | 7.9 | 11.2 |
Malaysia | 9.6 | 10.9 |
S. Africa | 8.2 | 9.2 |
S. Korea | 19.8 | 6.9 |
Chile | 8.2 | 6.6 |
Poland | 7.7 | 5.4 |
Russia | 16.6 | 4.7 |
Hungary | 1.7 | 0.1 |
Note: Debt at risk is debt of firms with ratio of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense less than 2.
* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.
** Asian financial crisis is GDP-weighted average of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand in 1996.
Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.
Figure 4: Interest Coverage Ratio
4-quarter moving average
Percent
Period | EME | EME ex. China | China |
---|---|---|---|
2007q1 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 8.8 |
2007q2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 8.5 |
2007q3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.4 |
2007q4 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 8.4 |
2008q1 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 8.2 |
2008q2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 8.0 |
2008q3 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.6 |
2008q4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7.0 |
2009q1 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 |
2009q2 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.1 |
2009q3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 6.0 |
2009q4 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 6.5 |
2010q1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 7.2 |
2010q2 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 8.0 |
2010q3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
2010q4 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 9.0 |
2011q1 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 9.1 |
2011q2 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 9.0 |
2011q3 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 8.8 |
2011q4 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 8.3 |
2012q1 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 7.7 |
2012q2 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 7.0 |
2012q3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.4 |
2012q4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
2013q1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
2013q2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
2013q3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
2013q4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
2014q1 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
2014q2 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
2014q3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.1 |
2014q4 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
2015q1 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
2015q2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.4 |
2015q3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.1 |
2015q4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.9 |
2016q1 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 |
2016q2 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.5 |
2016q3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
2016q4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.7 |
2017q1 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.9 |
2017q2 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.2 |
2017q3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.5 |
Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense. Average borrowing cost is interest expense as a percentage of total debt. Return on assets is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization as a percent of total assets. Financial leverage is total debt to total assets.
* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.
Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.
Figure 5: Return on Assets
4-quarter moving average
Percent
Period | EME | EME ex. China | China |
---|---|---|---|
2006q3 | 14.0% | 15.2% | 11.4 |
2006q4 | 13.8% | 15.1% | 11.2 |
2007q1 | 13.8% | 15.0% | 11.6 |
2007q2 | 13.6% | 14.7% | 11.4 |
2007q3 | 13.4% | 14.5% | 11.3 |
2007q4 | 13.3% | 14.5% | 11.1 |
2008q1 | 13.2% | 14.6% | 10.8 |
2008q2 | 13.3% | 14.8% | 10.5 |
2008q3 | 13.5% | 15.3% | 10.3 |
2008q4 | 13.4% | 15.7% | 9.9 |
2009q1 | 13.0% | 15.6% | 9.4 |
2009q2 | 12.2% | 14.7% | 8.8 |
2009q3 | 11.0% | 13.2% | 8.3 |
2009q4 | 10.3% | 11.9% | 8.1 |
2010q1 | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.2 |
2010q2 | 10.2% | 11.6% | 8.5 |
2010q3 | 10.5% | 12.1% | 8.7 |
2010q4 | 10.8% | 12.3% | 9.0 |
2011q1 | 10.8% | 12.3% | 9.1 |
2011q2 | 10.8% | 12.2% | 9.1 |
2011q3 | 10.8% | 12.4% | 9.1 |
2011q4 | 10.8% | 12.5% | 8.9 |
2012q1 | 10.6% | 12.5% | 8.7 |
2012q2 | 10.4% | 12.3% | 8.4 |
2012q3 | 10.0% | 12.0% | 8.1 |
2012q4 | 9.7% | 11.6% | 7.8 |
2013q1 | 9.5% | 11.4% | 7.6 |
2013q2 | 9.3% | 11.4% | 7.4 |
2013q3 | 9.2% | 11.3% | 7.3 |
2013q4 | 9.0% | 11.1% | 7.2 |
2014q1 | 8.9% | 11.0% | 7.2 |
2014q2 | 8.8% | 10.7% | 7.3 |
2014q3 | 8.6% | 10.6% | 7.3 |
2014q4 | 8.4% | 10.7% | 7.0 |
2015q1 | 8.1% | 10.8% | 6.7 |
2015q2 | 7.7% | 10.8% | 6.2 |
2015q3 | 7.4% | 10.8% | 5.9 |
2015q4 | 7.0% | 10.6% | 5.6 |
2016q1 | 6.7% | 10.3% | 5.3 |
2016q2 | 6.4% | 10.3% | 5.1 |
2016q3 | 6.3% | 10.2% | 5.0 |
2016q4 | 6.3% | 10.2% | 5.0 |
2017q1 | 6.4% | 10.4% | 5.0 |
2017q2 | 6.5% | 10.4% | 5.1 |
2017q3 | 6.8% | 10.4% | 5.4 |
Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense. Average borrowing cost is interest expense as a percentage of total debt. Return on assets is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization as a percent of total assets. Financial leverage is total debt to total assets.
* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.
Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.
Figure 6: Financial Leverage
4-quarter moving average
Ratio
Period | EME | EME ex. China | China |
---|---|---|---|
2007q1 | 0.265 | 0.267 | 0.260 |
2007q2 | 0.264 | 0.266 | 0.259 |
2007q3 | 0.261 | 0.265 | 0.255 |
2007q4 | 0.259 | 0.263 | 0.251 |
2008q1 | 0.260 | 0.265 | 0.252 |
2008q2 | 0.261 | 0.265 | 0.253 |
2008q3 | 0.266 | 0.268 | 0.261 |
2008q4 | 0.274 | 0.275 | 0.272 |
2009q1 | 0.280 | 0.282 | 0.278 |
2009q2 | 0.287 | 0.289 | 0.284 |
2009q3 | 0.289 | 0.294 | 0.284 |
2009q4 | 0.287 | 0.293 | 0.279 |
2010q1 | 0.284 | 0.289 | 0.278 |
2010q2 | 0.282 | 0.286 | 0.277 |
2010q3 | 0.280 | 0.282 | 0.278 |
2010q4 | 0.280 | 0.280 | 0.280 |
2011q1 | 0.280 | 0.279 | 0.282 |
2011q2 | 0.280 | 0.277 | 0.283 |
2011q3 | 0.281 | 0.279 | 0.284 |
2011q4 | 0.284 | 0.280 | 0.288 |
2012q1 | 0.288 | 0.283 | 0.292 |
2012q2 | 0.293 | 0.288 | 0.298 |
2012q3 | 0.296 | 0.289 | 0.304 |
2012q4 | 0.298 | 0.289 | 0.307 |
2013q1 | 0.300 | 0.290 | 0.310 |
2013q2 | 0.302 | 0.291 | 0.313 |
2013q3 | 0.302 | 0.293 | 0.311 |
2013q4 | 0.304 | 0.297 | 0.310 |
2014q1 | 0.306 | 0.300 | 0.311 |
2014q2 | 0.308 | 0.303 | 0.312 |
2014q3 | 0.311 | 0.305 | 0.315 |
2014q4 | 0.316 | 0.309 | 0.320 |
2015q1 | 0.319 | 0.313 | 0.322 |
2015q2 | 0.320 | 0.317 | 0.322 |
2015q3 | 0.324 | 0.321 | 0.326 |
2015q4 | 0.327 | 0.324 | 0.328 |
2016q1 | 0.328 | 0.325 | 0.330 |
2016q2 | 0.330 | 0.325 | 0.332 |
2016q3 | 0.329 | 0.322 | 0.332 |
2016q4 | 0.327 | 0.318 | 0.330 |
2017q1 | 0.325 | 0.314 | 0.329 |
2017q2 | 0.322 | 0.309 | 0.327 |
2017q3 | 0.321 | 0.303 | 0.329 |
Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense. Average borrowing cost is interest expense as a percentage of total debt. Return on assets is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization as a percent of total assets. Financial leverage is total debt to total assets.
* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.
Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.
Figure 7: Average Borrowing Cost
4-quarter moving average
Percent
Period | EME | EME ex. China | China |
---|---|---|---|
2007q1 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 5.1 |
2007q2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 |
2007q3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 5.3 |
2007q4 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 5.3 |
2008q1 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 |
2008q2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 5.2 |
2008q3 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 5.2 |
2008q4 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.2 |
2009q1 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 |
2009q2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.1 |
2009q3 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 |
2009q4 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 |
2010q1 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 4.2 |
2010q2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 3.8 |
2010q3 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 |
2010q4 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 |
2011q1 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 |
2011q2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 3.6 |
2011q3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 |
2011q4 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 3.8 |
2012q1 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 3.9 |
2012q2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.0 |
2012q3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 |
2012q4 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.2 |
2013q1 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 |
2013q2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 |
2013q3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 |
2013q4 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 |
2014q1 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 |
2014q2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.4 |
2014q3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.5 |
2014q4 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.5 |
2015q1 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 |
2015q2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 |
2015q3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 |
2015q4 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 |
2016q1 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 |
2016q2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.3 |
2016q3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.2 |
2016q4 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 4.0 |
2017q1 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 3.9 |
2017q2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 |
2017q3 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 |
Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense. Average borrowing cost is interest expense as a percentage of total debt. Return on assets is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization as a percent of total assets. Financial leverage is total debt to total assets.
* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.
Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.
Figure 8: Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt at Risk
Percent of GDP
2016q3 | 2017q3 | |
---|---|---|
EME | 38.3 | 24.4 |
EME ex. China | 12.5 | 8.8 |
China | 66.1 | 42.8 |
India | 15.9 | 18.4 |
Turkey | 12.9 | 17.5 |
Brazil | 14.5 | 12.8 |
Malaysia | 6.4 | 7.4 |
S. Korea | 20.2 | 6.9 |
Chile | 8.3 | 6.6 |
Thailand | 3.9 | 5.5 |
Argentina | 6.3 | 5.5 |
Indonesia | 8.2 | 4.4 |
Mexico | 11.1 | 3.6 |
S. Africa | 3.1 | 3.5 |
Poland | 3.7 | 2.6 |
Russia | 8.8 | 2.4 |
Hungary | 1.2 | 0.1 |
Note: Debt at risk is debt of firms with ratio of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense less than 2. GDP is gross domestic product.
* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.
** Asian financial crisis is GDP-weighted average of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand in 1996.
Source: Bank for International Settlements; Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.
Figure 9: Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt at Risk, 2017:Q3
Current | With 100 basis point increase in average borrowing cost | With additional earnings and exchange rate depreciation shocks** | |
---|---|---|---|
EME | 24.42647362 | 33.82984161 | 49.01053619 |
EME ex. China | 8.795577049 | 10.52344227 | 15.58876324 |
China | 42.83759689 | 62.07728958 | 88.01226044 |
India | 18.37251091 | 19.48233604 | 21.12230301 |
Turkey | 17.48054123 | 20.61868668 | 26.01152992 |
Brazil | 12.80068302 | 15.60658741 | 21.76333046 |
Malaysia | 7.406004429 | 11.10455036 | 24.36151695 |
S. Korea | 6.857490063 | 10.07717705 | 18.43734741 |
Chile | 6.576182842 | 10.20085621 | 16.25245094 |
Thailand | 5.52073431 | 8.235971451 | 12.17254639 |
Argentina | 5.468087196 | 5.622689247 | 6.336498737 |
Indonesia | 4.430025578 | 4.694220066 | 11.91161251 |
Mexico | 3.566121817 | 3.708420277 | 4.820976734 |
S. Africa | 3.514886618 | 3.752265215 | 16.80732536 |
Poland | 2.629755735 | 4.648963451 | 6.407379627 |
Russia | 2.429852724 | 3.226649523 | 4.32379818 |
Hungary | 0.102444269 | 0.102444269 | 0.102444269 |
Note: Debt at risk is debt of firms with ratio of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense less than 2. GDP is gross domestic product.
* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.
** Shocks include a 20 percent fall in earnings and a 20 percent depreciation of the local currency against the dollar. Return to text
*** Asian financial crisis is GDP-weighted average of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand in 1996.
Source: Ayala, Nedelijkovic, and Saborowski (2015); Bank for International Settlements; Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.
Figure 10: Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Interest Coverage Ratios, 2017:Q3
Ratio
Current | With 100 basis point increase in average borrowing cost | With additional 20 percent fall in earnings | With additional exchange rate depreciation shock | |
---|---|---|---|---|
EME | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
EME ex. China | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
China | 4.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
India | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Turkey | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
Brazil | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Malaysia | 9.2 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 5.7 |
S. Korea | 6.5 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
Chile | 5.9 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
Thailand | 7.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
Argentina | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
Indonesia | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
Mexico | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
S. Africa | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
Poland | 11.5 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 6.6 |
Russia | 9.2 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 5.7 |
Hungary | 9.6 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
Note: Interest coverage ratio is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization to interest expense.
* Emerging market economies (EME) include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (including Hong Kong), Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey.
Source: Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.