Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1: World Gross Domestic Product and Global Conditions Index

date	GDP gdp_nowcast_dm	GCI ads_monthly	recession (1 = true)
1970m9	1.615839031	0.095309529	0
1970m10	-0.111232535	-0.322896747	0
1970m11	-0.865257945	-0.461876567	0
1970m12	-2.362571002	-0.255119516	0
1971m1	-1.666642488	0.053170253	0
1971m2	-1.446693119	0.329087477	0
1971m3	0.101842503	0.582122542	0
1971m4	0.590540895	0.825963335	0
1971m5	1.763294306	0.835001758	0
1971m6	1.685416995	0.789481621	0
1971m7	2.013642219	0.68872403	0
1971m8	1.238817303	0.596034827	0
1971m9	1.034136864	0.461959455	0
1971m10	-0.194022691	0.174927418	0
1971m11	-0.582883111	0.020083001	0
1971m12	-1.289430618	0.09175043	0
1972m1	-0.371479968	0.554789548	0
1972m2	0.489964867	1.004615602	0
1972m3	2.08679008	1.421693899	0
1972m4	2.755844077	1.583756178	0
1972m5	3.306253766	1.744588782	0
1972m6	3.073092256	1.73620599	0
1972m7	2.609332954	1.661202956	0
1972m8	2.012923228	1.692079505	0
1972m9	1.66119633	1.806167321	0
1972m10	2.045201161	2.11437891	0
1972m11	2.774033674	2.40952268	0
1972m12	4.002392923	2.695863764	0
1973m1	5.003090632	2.801474092	0
1973m2	5.823031337	2.558197191	0
1973m3	5.530857142	1.979165827	0
1973m4	4.59631938	1.224974629	0
1973m5	2.704145976	0.688112922	0
1973m6	1.448654933	0.311624569	0
1973m7	-0.140602161	-0.07595421	0
1973m8	-0.288594585	-0.304600811	0
1973m9	-0.894836313	-0.376030963	0
1973m10	0.313716568	-0.412350222	0
1973m11	0.032540567	-0.729874558	0
1973m12	0.483487618	-1.232757454	0
1974m1	-1.738947396	-1.718610437	0
1974m2	-2.516650776	-1.815487444	0
1974m3	-4.264345717	-1.557321022	0
1974m4	-2.983470285	-1.072177181	0
1974m5	-2.559432855	-0.776489504	0
1974m6	-0.571511657	-0.731021391	1
1974m7	-0.734221995	-0.941026058	1
1974m8	-0.316904106	-1.395668221	1
1974m9	-1.895778958	-2.062712594	1
1974m10	-2.810603153	-2.673667419	1
1974m11	-4.813152952	-2.909271192	1
1974m12	-5.314551533	-2.854381226	1
1975m1	-6.130300997	-2.63591546	1
1975m2	-5.425945643	-2.501381932	1
1975m3	-5.153022054	-2.102566969	1
1975m4	-3.241310479	-1.362101365	1
1975m5	-1.904950015	-0.580797309	1
1975m6	0.186126404	0.103089956	1
1975m7	0.591736252	0.420888205	1
1975m8	1.120726016	0.746210101	1
1975m9	0.527087386	0.793395175	1
1975m10	0.496237382	0.915583246	1
1975m11	0.157300234	0.998846975	1
1975m12	0.575309611	1.371522628	1
1976m1	1.138190992	1.653295532	0
1976m2	1.768318476	1.569606675	0
1976m3	1.893908842	1.343907732	0
1976m4	1.553778249	1.283486542	0
1976m5	1.038439401	0.920006956	0
1976m6	0.472316224	0.551557258	0
1976m7	0.20650139	0.347288355	0
1976m8	0.188106383	0.446806092	0
1976m9	0.44982173	0.662645287	0
1976m10	0.529270744	0.724606844	0
1976m11	0.511017568	0.923381528	0
1976m12	0.418304373	0.72466228	0
1977m1	0.289193081	0.49702103	0
1977m2	0.408402036	0.21366928	0
1977m3	0.348000312	0.133468836	0
1977m4	0.935653638	0.097956284	0
1977m5	0.92070345	0.022437021	0
1977m6	1.554693308	0.018282828	0
1977m7	1.065552931	0.002662128	0
1977m8	1.649046524	0.297317354	0
1977m9	0.974360295	0.181623083	0
1977m10	1.438491571	0.067888627	0
1977m11	0.239873996	0.047149084	0
1977m12	0.491652573	0.063756641	0
1978m1	-1.110374194	-0.238806109	0
1978m2	-0.464848182	0.132634269	0
1978m3	-0.835948995	0.941776769	0
1978m4	2.162811809	1.721211127	0
1978m5	2.691804655	1.27901628	0
1978m6	4.419875896	1.020931213	0
1978m7	2.305093839	0.727926609	0
1978m8	2.205465236	0.754083613	0
1978m9	0.184313385	0.846724137	0
1978m10	1.120769473	0.885429563	0
1978m11	0.396738604	0.884424899	0
1978m12	1.378780206	0.494610046	0
1979m1	-0.301708892	-0.563331129	0
1979m2	-0.357778121	-0.323509749	0
1979m3	-1.430514556	0.036575975	0
1979m4	-0.075845879	0.366795889	0
1979m5	0.298037571	0.594139717	0
1979m6	1.344427454	0.43202994	0
1979m7	0.935938731	0.031655156	0
1979m8	0.700906033	-0.04432967	0
1979m9	-0.04253815	-0.227937089	0
1979m10	-0.369584481	-0.134440676	0
1979m11	-0.321059598	0.062585055	0
1979m12	-0.227589753	0.041879072	0
1980m1	0.462234494	-0.119775535	0
1980m2	-0.042786995	-0.814806472	0
1980m3	-0.519287927	-1.810525483	0
1980m4	-3.041896696	-2.94277171	0
1980m5	-4.325583281	-3.201208373	0
1980m6	-5.781411049	-2.551451718	0
1980m7	-4.237002203	-1.705748225	0
1980m8	-3.284804835	-0.919181155	0
1980m9	-0.899620129	-0.288584071	0
1980m10	-0.459593962	0.407489896	0
1980m11	0.999823875	0.567318318	0
1980m12	0.42854351	0.212109833	0
1981m1	1.075209088	-0.081684163	0
1981m2	0.010649244	-0.253445521	0
1981m3	0.27421767	-0.546123006	0
1981m4	-1.387463358	-0.819563152	0
1981m5	-1.512777588	-0.656301274	0
1981m6	-2.475180326	-0.330735715	0
1981m7	-1.336704889	-0.204839884	0
1981m8	-1.44356384	-0.571597977	0
1981m9	-0.849944101	-0.845460662	0
1981m10	-2.062112604	-1.43221247	0
1981m11	-2.885764114	-1.976940959	0
1981m12	-4.447711896	-2.184698973	0
1982m1	-4.895832196	-1.907669044	0
1982m2	-4.794326071	-1.484179307	0
1982m3	-4.010214334	-1.441319229	0
1982m4	-2.928263903	-1.576580056	1
1982m5	-2.33798612	-1.827794974	1
1982m6	-1.869294311	-1.992415165	1
1982m7	-2.414648004	-1.972944055	1
1982m8	-2.686700293	-1.800088246	1
1982m9	-3.409380348	-1.662016617	1
1982m10	-3.503883441	-1.738188786	1
1982m11	-3.781901214	-1.272040583	0
1982m12	-3.206946482	-0.779200903	0
1983m1	-2.643513879	-0.148382376	0
1983m2	-1.506033534	0.067424251	0
1983m3	-0.676366581	0.563494554	0
1983m4	0.803072183	0.859035361	0
1983m5	1.749945963	1.075310707	0
1983m6	2.741938371	1.221535031	0
1983m7	2.513465769	1.111885643	0
1983m8	2.367844878	1.356996901	0
1983m9	1.855817892	1.453172075	0
1983m10	1.772345076	1.350382947	0
1983m11	1.848958064	1.450948175	0
1983m12	2.1590197	1.546696533	0
1984m1	2.843081139	1.417421845	0
1984m2	2.81305808	0.806375381	0
1984m3	2.586098504	0.354203423	0
1984m4	1.424594605	0.205598076	0
1984m5	1.003784576	0.363415607	0
1984m6	0.379489147	0.358525298	0
1984m7	0.986908777	0.793873745	0
1984m8	1.066552926	0.709217235	0
1984m9	1.430826931	0.293543621	0
1984m10	0.562332059	-0.02350582	0
1984m11	0.072219285	0.036339646	0
1984m12	-0.575409412	0.224277256	0
1985m1	-0.448670889	0.282674471	0
1985m2	-0.501876215	0.185317344	0
1985m3	-0.223789271	0.132432086	0
1985m4	0.132287781	0.213293891	0
1985m5	0.792062161	0.293382844	0
1985m6	1.34660551	0.115477365	0
1985m7	1.781910158	0.179821911	0
1985m8	2.071980123	0.248139675	0
1985m9	2.109790056	0.251013379	0
1985m10	1.774411807	0.051043206	0
1985m11	0.953874793	0.012517409	0
1985m12	0.156452898	-0.381458545	0
1986m1	-0.839510384	-0.396242365	0
1986m2	-1.151809912	-0.534885626	0
1986m3	-1.567524568	-0.611597784	0
1986m4	-0.702780919	-0.391600523	0
1986m5	-0.325877607	-0.312334861	0
1986m6	1.042849076	-0.024451806	0
1986m7	1.104971212	0.03995808	0
1986m8	1.711002511	-0.125960811	0
1986m9	0.941835299	-0.022184084	0
1986m10	0.760870904	-0.309909912	0
1986m11	-0.650267891	-0.305082147	0
1986m12	-0.852847369	-0.065692038	0
1987m1	-2.232024496	-0.263987251	0
1987m2	-1.463551777	0.43686976	0
1987m3	-1.640733797	0.648059337	0
1987m4	0.961284983	1.121020364	0
1987m5	1.762183761	1.178025961	0
1987m6	3.799908304	1.152360033	0
1987m7	2.932654348	0.96329228	0
1987m8	3.215224261	1.00367679	0
1987m9	1.949901975	1.239321425	0
1987m10	2.748996927	1.5361645	0
1987m11	2.22923203	1.300127987	0
1987m12	2.857496995	1.012269627	0
1988m1	1.88396743	0.785222305	0
1988m2	2.027048791	0.683147765	0
1988m3	1.163028266	0.486183614	0
1988m4	1.351985172	0.341669846	0
1988m5	0.752788333	0.236626262	0
1988m6	1.012893832	0.230182124	0
1988m7	0.628154017	0.198233824	0
1988m8	0.954302055	0.49206666	0
1988m9	0.772920036	0.547262711	0
1988m10	1.012851638	0.657709777	0
1988m11	0.873289053	0.812478853	0
1988m12	0.92477879	0.63424054	0
1989m1	0.63248149	0.221693091	0
1989m2	0.307354285	-0.034463805	0
1989m3	0.025613779	0.023153406	0
1989m4	-0.154371928	-0.164426316	0
1989m5	-0.353211538	-0.432266148	0
1989m6	-0.477477068	-0.149760474	0
1989m7	-0.391230282	-0.209714012	0
1989m8	-0.159428051	-0.026451754	0
1989m9	0.048777484	-0.12687707	0
1989m10	0.063610423	-0.062915033	0
1989m11	0.268640542	0.229446854	0
1989m12	0.115004445	0.251681028	0
1990m1	-0.084366639	-0.049165988	0
1990m2	-0.841531301	-0.035291292	0
1990m3	-0.97392576	0.12328495	0
1990m4	-1.278002451	-0.072687236	0
1990m5	-0.678159925	-0.031307908	0
1990m6	-0.675145128	-0.018772503	0
1990m7	0.370987232	0.018480948	0
1990m8	0.231038011	-0.004882954	0
1990m9	0.527407687	-0.368219053	0
1990m10	-1.12918895	-0.843625085	0
1990m11	-1.779440681	-1.142933126	0
1990m12	-3.043596916	-1.100327766	0
1991m1	-1.823332698	-0.896392328	0
1991m2	-1.197886162	-0.804439902	0
1991m3	0.596837749	-0.67659303	0
1991m4	0.779976251	-0.360143975	0
1991m5	1.61170514	0.045849409	0
1991m6	1.164189051	0.036942165	0
1991m7	0.991448813	-0.247337086	0
1991m8	-0.03866778	-0.406681352	0
1991m9	-0.305971732	-0.357188204	0
1991m10	-0.461125561	-0.122541722	0
1991m11	-0.054547466	-0.200227269	0
1991m12	-0.036969862	-0.316337978	0
1992m1	0.172108824	-0.081893951	0
1992m2	0.14007058	-0.079513397	0
1992m3	0.28325861	-0.254349201	0
1992m4	0.161769048	-0.362000902	0
1992m5	0.142336567	-0.541126227	0
1992m6	0.077555559	-0.544841596	0
1992m7	0.076295916	-0.577780103	0
1992m8	-0.089469991	-0.62946448	0
1992m9	-0.148581214	-0.384429899	0
1992m10	-0.517608481	-0.500039064	0
1992m11	-1.052346412	-0.969156042	0
1992m12	-1.706243931	-0.884783361	0
1993m1	-1.895615659	-0.542388552	0
1993m2	-1.606500746	-0.322860786	0
1993m3	-1.34755381	-0.570869026	0
1993m4	-1.085645456	-0.506400251	0
1993m5	-0.990919922	-0.501550753	0
1993m6	-0.78833154	-0.48243351	0
1993m7	-0.844515302	-0.366032949	0
1993m8	-0.862029614	-0.203890046	0
1993m9	-0.908644274	0.021145918	0
1993m10	-0.963440014	-0.10721276	0
1993m11	-1.048457448	-0.053435363	0
1993m12	-0.939059852	0.166594789	0
1994m1	-0.565797017	0.326264241	0
1994m2	0.03662022	0.539731054	0
1994m3	0.527529421	0.69922571	0
1994m4	0.922959045	0.702093108	0
1994m5	0.890373438	0.580687243	0
1994m6	0.791141961	0.650175476	0
1994m7	0.33657458	0.563409164	0
1994m8	0.27700276	0.870984475	0
1994m9	0.153164704	0.878931863	0
1994m10	0.536254021	0.916720765	0
1994m11	0.706007715	0.818591122	0
1994m12	0.874489414	0.554296173	0
1995m1	0.502213812	-0.034594054	0
1995m2	-0.068021459	-0.341288711	0
1995m3	-0.649943935	-0.392322955	0
1995m4	-1.004644274	-0.384342168	0
1995m5	-1.000381248	-0.288548078	0
1995m6	-0.864728727	-0.218178959	0
1995m7	-0.327261336	-0.093677086	0
1995m8	0.110605715	0.073652055	0
1995m9	0.319489331	-0.176567676	0
1995m10	-0.105315928	-0.310086386	0
1995m11	-0.536750451	-0.018839378	0
1995m12	-0.742270184	0.041526845	0
1996m1	-0.624729878	-0.067553598	0
1996m2	-0.264865864	-0.09635907	0
1996m3	-0.031407535	-0.059540797	0
1996m4	0.69125962	0.132046901	0
1996m5	0.869054163	0.301362836	0
1996m6	1.357434642	0.187644084	0
1996m7	0.748269735	0.202092685	0
1996m8	0.891627762	0.289324489	0
1996m9	0.297470807	0.385304329	0
1996m10	1.009380915	0.455125242	0
1996m11	0.593863984	0.51405074	0
1996m12	1.199435387	0.476682103	0
1997m1	0.104144014	0.41707732	0
1997m2	0.301816497	0.440555026	0
1997m3	-0.75903118	0.487015105	0
1997m4	0.187016375	0.565823639	0
1997m5	-0.270163527	0.453913854	0
1997m6	0.981688251	0.671634078	0
1997m7	0.462889869	0.746689462	0
1997m8	1.495885376	0.579182729	0
1997m9	0.703945	0.462968081	0
1997m10	1.583904879	0.33279125	0
1997m11	0.429377172	-0.157647513	0
1997m12	0.600097453	-0.532224641	0
1998m1	-1.772778657	-1.064462604	0
1998m2	-1.966146787	-0.581356119	0
1998m3	-3.863913758	-1.141640272	0
1998m4	-2.836332128	-0.712779795	0
1998m5	-3.501724516	-0.869367789	0
1998m6	-1.902631711	-0.744781932	0
1998m7	-2.14203764	-0.640431223	0
1998m8	-0.650596263	-0.506028444	0
1998m9	-0.710055253	-0.248625557	0
1998m10	0.635659364	-0.347206215	0
1998m11	0.061420441	-0.604929714	0
1998m12	0.701381573	-0.338167036	0
1999m1	-0.225464117	0.395272717	0
1999m2	0.480315078	0.784783195	0
1999m3	-0.608584615	0.131832894	0
1999m4	-0.204106093	0.296178823	0
1999m5	-0.964807043	0.334360919	0
1999m6	0.139045217	0.534929417	0
1999m7	0.099965416	0.570387483	0
1999m8	1.301130044	0.93061658	0
1999m9	1.434369862	1.216052243	0
1999m10	2.455664115	1.227417804	0
1999m11	2.277371412	1.348741121	0
1999m12	2.739623345	1.231806161	0
2000m1	1.724568821	0.458488343	0
2000m2	1.798154894	0.989258599	0
2000m3	1.21275957	1.316699606	0
2000m4	1.648465063	0.663917195	0
2000m5	1.252427539	1.22133649	0
2000m6	1.210997981	0.528128786	0
2000m7	0.463273744	0.243840325	0
2000m8	0.276478179	0.173477626	0
2000m9	-0.470275969	0.05175028	0
2000m10	-0.297980859	-0.388628493	0
2000m11	-1.012928089	-0.503780764	0
2000m12	-0.755531956	-0.642095224	0
2001m1	-1.576424216	-1.385662261	0
2001m2	-1.272841113	-1.354960771	0
2001m3	-1.618706405	-0.866640547	0
2001m4	-0.861946227	-1.530559528	1
2001m5	-1.502250031	-1.716550098	1
2001m6	-1.592296283	-1.794468342	1
2001m7	-2.68077704	-1.274499164	1
2001m8	-2.042967688	-0.399696595	1
2001m9	-2.904189077	-1.606505783	1
2001m10	-2.600555801	-2.357254238	1
2001m11	-2.870391458	-0.863199333	1
2001m12	-1.508445538	-0.829665221	0
2002m1	-0.91954475	-0.165016811	0
2002m2	-0.309576875	0.255312874	0
2002m3	-0.597688909	0.288482673	0
2002m4	-0.260063537	0.510230319	0
2002m5	-0.395648439	0.543890446	0
2002m6	-0.007844613	0.282573002	0
2002m7	0.062611588	-0.0397835	0
2002m8	0.265074963	-0.069711461	0
2002m9	0.152244246	-0.462742031	0
2002m10	-0.194291834	-0.458067205	0
2002m11	-0.743583889	-0.648467409	0
2002m12	-1.227207572	-0.511732215	0
2003m1	-1.069463306	0.151750027	0
2003m2	-0.938462604	0.131475483	0
2003m3	-0.96488119	-0.781323512	0
2003m4	-1.458375715	-0.701752628	0
2003m5	-1.390617627	-0.582044324	0
2003m6	-0.699938147	0.174128592	0
2003m7	0.834687026	0.711173069	0
2003m8	2.00747432	1.089343266	0
2003m9	2.933035709	0.757210791	0
2003m10	3.028669125	1.502455789	0
2003m11	3.06384249	1.269815448	0
2003m12	2.655618679	1.391214608	0
2004m1	2.053231544	0.833985923	0
2004m2	0.752340115	0.088129016	0
2004m3	0.290854383	0.545127689	0
2004m4	-0.170373678	0.530545675	0
2004m5	0.538831636	0.642286679	0
2004m6	0.24204942	0.049645672	0
2004m7	0.866836698	0.482565434	0
2004m8	0.634497784	0.357976309	0
2004m9	1.024405877	-0.054122966	0
2004m10	0.392381688	0.301813164	0
2004m11	0.368634697	0.029708622	0
2004m12	0.138079123	0.546606745	0
2005m1	0.773476436	0.588225274	0
2005m2	0.748362178	0.332614516	0
2005m3	1.262969061	0.362329431	0
2005m4	0.948023938	0.592423893	0
2005m5	1.317058316	0.321865175	0
2005m6	0.687302093	-0.012529484	0
2005m7	1.059662661	0.594012463	0
2005m8	0.764445331	0.479388053	0
2005m9	1.632116727	0.92567417	0
2005m10	1.339442525	0.808318395	0
2005m11	2.06451004	1.104251613	0
2005m12	1.757840506	0.860930007	0
2006m1	2.346399208	0.773541279	0
2006m2	2.040667704	0.90327481	0
2006m3	2.315324746	0.678413979	0
2006m4	1.397635662	0.370414507	0
2006m5	1.086169972	0.506349144	0
2006m6	0.177447101	0.272295428	0
2006m7	0.285093397	0.069099364	0
2006m8	0.168239417	0.446400304	0
2006m9	0.808977545	0.478959839	0
2006m10	1.371935509	0.957813878	0
2006m11	2.156638313	1.15568821	0
2006m12	2.472504989	0.94753218	0
2007m1	2.490859871	0.571693268	0
2007m2	2.338176452	0.892047172	0
2007m3	2.145031699	0.649127472	0
2007m4	1.946507831	0.604861487	0
2007m5	1.577954157	0.851380665	0
2007m6	1.411077435	0.705740489	0
2007m7	1.009116174	0.412148771	0
2007m8	1.121320323	0.700139364	0
2007m9	0.895600391	0.354531249	0
2007m10	1.6804475	0.701270953	0
2007m11	1.732963382	0.863887742	0
2007m12	2.086827783	0.281510968	0
2008m1	1.256590149	0.556215035	0
2008m2	0.579623887	-0.319565356	0
2008m3	-0.713929196	-0.869657126	0
2008m4	-1.101798642	-1.378530232	0
2008m5	-1.699782243	-1.510412932	1
2008m6	-1.325329763	-1.703752556	1
2008m7	-2.125933401	-2.376822577	1
2008m8	-2.164630782	-1.975775771	1
2008m9	-3.305326866	-2.738013065	1
2008m10	-4.383338378	-4.490752157	1
2008m11	-6.856479278	-5.844708078	1
2008m12	-8.397189217	-5.997007339	1
2009m1	-8.866704887	-4.968863415	1
2009m2	-7.583019587	-3.801209462	1
2009m3	-5.928551612	-2.365996088	1
2009m4	-3.377528504	-0.167434978	0
2009m5	-1.161033966	1.104667397	0
2009m6	0.763384986	1.173403448	0
2009m7	1.393534676	1.297931098	0
2009m8	2.07267985	1.759270463	0
2009m9	2.188085689	1.45409643	0
2009m10	2.466423454	1.218494184	0
2009m11	1.956460651	1.298365913	0
2009m12	1.89244365	1.223021436	0
2010m1	1.443372417	1.573241391	0
2010m2	1.629158391	1.740955612	0
2010m3	1.546132394	1.866597176	0
2010m4	2.085276885	1.524048243	0
2010m5	2.076132054	1.401602596	0
2010m6	2.12200654	0.517208405	0
2010m7	1.61857602	0.541960819	0
2010m8	1.519055475	0.507867214	0
2010m9	1.378953869	0.683622203	0
2010m10	1.747509395	0.9655386	0
2010m11	1.641152527	0.916674357	0
2010m12	1.609787256	0.620267526	0
2011m1	1.054081002	0.744433664	0
2011m2	0.634345463	0.324595995	0
2011m3	-0.073747409	-0.165179683	0
2011m4	-0.535482056	-0.397340677	0
2011m5	-0.663956799	-0.01896132	0
2011m6	-0.491466409	-0.21202023	0
2011m7	-0.138488396	0.119341851	0
2011m8	-0.0379861	0.112531859	0
2011m9	-0.006001258	-0.332911992	0
2011m10	-0.347739294	-0.500665321	0
2011m11	-0.278248644	-0.2339544	0
2011m12	-0.013573289	0.206963649	0
2012m1	0.777144807	0.382189068	0
2012m2	0.666547203	0.02510211	0
2012m3	0.667513035	0.029556673	0
2012m4	-0.399995231	-0.234933858	0
2012m5	-0.64869367	-0.34476063	0
2012m6	-1.573073256	-0.718848846	0
2012m7	-1.138439188	-0.715556841	0
2012m8	-1.207338317	-0.64115791	0
2012m9	-0.420191903	-0.698931237	0
2012m10	-0.823901102	-0.777291068	0
2012m11	-0.444237198	-0.146780769	0
2012m12	-0.903786854	-0.299193065	0
2013m1	-0.489251025	-0.144855372	0
2013m2	-0.838165121	-0.030581923	0
2013m3	-0.278516287	0.299202646	0
2013m4	-0.301599166	0.165091276	0
2013m5	0.137427674	0.141868159	0
2013m6	-0.261189502	-0.430690371	0
2013m7	0.227082619	0.249509692	0
2013m8	0.32734701	0.192774465	0
2013m9	0.982787269	0.273838439	0
2013m10	0.849287002	0.388182712	0
2013m11	0.796509388	0.409862244	0
2013m12	0.240193464	0.085086461	0
2014m1	-0.486960992	-0.245536083	0
2014m2	-1.079727612	-0.070365845	0
2014m3	-1.180648437	0.054030258	0
2014m4	-0.840429265	-0.207496944	0
2014m5	-0.296788681	0.07486551	0
2014m6	0.024719701	-0.252998301	0
2014m7	0.299433286	-0.193081239	0
2014m8	0.360731626	0.073961823	0
2014m9	0.629457215	0.295890593	0
2014m10	0.490517782	-0.079114614	0
2014m11	0.249964907	-0.23997866	0
2014m12	-0.105127223	0.038948329	0
2015m1	-0.140033355	-0.189709489	0
2015m2	-0.341738065	-0.269698559	0
2015m3	-0.401970252	-0.291053322	0
2015m4	-0.668143532	-0.382704757	0
2015m5	-0.500551583	-0.402414582	0
2015m6	-0.375483337	0.144151003	0
2015m7	0.117364924	-0.164226281	0
2015m8	0.014199367	-0.282237755	0
2015m9	-0.176945384	-0.601912259	0
2015m10	-0.707132128	-0.037242776	0
2015m11	-0.734461966	-0.192504806	0
2015m12	-1.157531039	-0.352052417	0
2016m1	-0.854766779	-0.09340043	0
2016m2	-1.048303503	-0.348731911	0
2016m3	-0.472129401	-0.158514944	0
2016m4	-0.775943089	-0.251416106	0
2016m5	-0.578420242	-0.383044698	0
2016m6	-0.844050078	-0.037596153	0
2016m7	-0.505278017	0.006351707	0
2016m8	-0.390842697	0.217427078	0
2016m9	0.015941116	0.236401894	0
2016m10	-0.011456266	0.22143858	0
2016m11	0.156158723	0.12838507	0
2016m12	-0.241493013	-0.17228118	0
2017m1	-0.257854991	-0.017025856	0
2017m2	-0.478309523	0.161562827	0
2017m3	-0.217132227	0.128711243	0
2017m4	-0.234131782	0.243666085	0
2017m5	0.082349314	0.327025738	0
2017m6	0.175275284	0.401283622	0
2017m7	0.535810095	0.336219257	0
2017m8	0.585207875	0.565736906	0
2017m9	0.623676111	0.116225703	0
2017m10	0.173713622	0.064222687	0
2017m11	0.131823997	0.44915695	0
2017m12	0.042062716	0.48360619	0

Note: Shading indicates that countries representing 65% of foreign GDP are classified as in recession. Correlation = 0.86

Source: Staff calculations.

Return to text

---

Figure 2: Nowcasting World GDP Growth

Annualized growth rate

date	GDP Data gdp_data	Nowcast GDP Estimate gdp_est	Standard Error gdp_est_se	Lower Estimate gdp_est_low	Upper Estimate gdp_est_high
2014m3	2.318004847	3.978773752	1.0831991	2.895574652	5.061972853
2014m4
2014m5
2014m6	3.521793365	3.310853493	1.0831991	2.227654393	4.394052593
2014m7
2014m8
2014m9	4.124898911	3.834559909	1.0831991	2.751360809	4.917759009
2014m10
2014m11
2014m12	3.388628244	3.830917632	1.0831991	2.747718532	4.914116732
2015m1
2015m2
2015m3	3.090039015	3.008356422	1.0831991	1.925157322	4.091555522
2015m4
2015m5
2015m6	3.114720106	3.232077313	1.0831991	2.148878214	4.315276413
2015m7
2015m8
2015m9	3.311398268	3.339564558	1.0831991	2.256365458	4.422763658
2015m10
2015m11
2015m12	2.32889533	3.117805034	1.0831991	2.034605934	4.201004134
2016m1
2016m2
2016m3	3.012334108	2.892724949	1.0831991	1.809525849	3.975924049
2016m4
2016m5
2016m6	2.638417959	3.393802038	1.0831991	2.310602938	4.477001138
2016m7
2016m8
2016m9	3.496366262	3.695027391	1.0831991	2.611828291	4.778226491
2016m10
2016m11
2016m12	3.236831903	3.8901533	1.0831991	2.8069542	4.9733524
2017m1
2017m2
2017m3	3.259032965	3.851277533	1.0831991	2.768078433	4.934476633
2017m4
2017m5
2017m6	3.649214745	4.241165207	1.0831991	3.157966107	5.324364307
2017m7
2017m8
2017m9	4.095315933	4.066972222	1.0831991	2.983773122	5.150171322
2017m10
2017m11
2017m12	3.51132369	4.120494883	1.0831991	3.037295783	5.203693983

Note: Blue bars depict 70% confidence intervals.

Source: Staff calculations.

Return to text

---

Figure 3: Estimated probability of a world recession

Contemporaneous probability of recession (k=0)

date	Contemporaneous probability of recession (k = 0) world_rec_prob_ads_ebp_rf	recession (1 = true)
1973m1	0	0
1973m2	0	0
1973m3	0	0
1973m4	0	0
1973m5	0	0
1973m6	0	0
1973m7	0	0
1973m8	0.000166667	0
1973m9	0.001877381	0
1973m10	0	0
1973m11	0	0
1973m12	0	0
1974m1	0.018658405	0
1974m2	0.077776984	0
1974m3	0.082628102	0
1974m4	0.138263059	0
1974m5	0.062749206	0
1974m6	0.296173629	1
1974m7	0.256719012	1
1974m8	0.326503608	1
1974m9	0.84538741	1
1974m10	0.88992013	1
1974m11	0.624839172	1
1974m12	0.716626005	1
1975m1	0.552325866	1
1975m2	0.504279401	1
1975m3	0.323828319	1
1975m4	0.218517172	1
1975m5	0.047027489	1
1975m6	0	1
1975m7	0.014308333	1
1975m8	0.0018	1
1975m9	0.0018	1
1975m10	0	1
1975m11	0	1
1975m12	0	1
1976m1	0	0
1976m2	0	0
1976m3	0	0
1976m4	0	0
1976m5	0	0
1976m6	0	0
1976m7	0	0
1976m8	0	0
1976m9	0.002295238	0
1976m10	0	0
1976m11	0	0
1976m12	0	0
1977m1	0	0
1977m2	0.0002	0
1977m3	0	0
1977m4	0	0
1977m5	0	0
1977m6	0	0
1977m7	0	0
1977m8	0.000342857	0
1977m9	0	0
1977m10	0	0
1977m11	0	0
1977m12	0	0
1978m1	0.0002	0
1978m2	0	0
1978m3	0.000566667	0
1978m4	0	0
1978m5	0	0
1978m6	0	0
1978m7	0	0
1978m8	0	0
1978m9	0	0
1978m10	0	0
1978m11	0	0
1978m12	0	0
1979m1	0	0
1979m2	0.000966667	0
1979m3	0.007503968	0
1979m4	0	0
1979m5	0	0
1979m6	0.002809524	0
1979m7	0	0
1979m8	0	0
1979m9	0	0
1979m10	0.0004	0
1979m11	0.01442381	0
1979m12	0.0004	0
1980m1	0	0
1980m2	0	0
1980m3	0.004166667	0
1980m4	0.111670887	0
1980m5	0.085980519	0
1980m6	0.280113817	0
1980m7	0.113976154	0
1980m8	0.107601984	0
1980m9	0.001752381	0
1980m10	0.000909524	0
1980m11	0.001366667	0
1980m12	0	0
1981m1	0.020694048	0
1981m2	0	0
1981m3	0	0
1981m4	0.028461328	0
1981m5	0.019397619	0
1981m6	0.067337626	0
1981m7	0.01229127	0
1981m8	0.006140476	0
1981m9	0.004190476	0
1981m10	0.260686724	0
1981m11	0.281385065	0
1981m12	0.333463131	0
1982m1	0.545196712	0
1982m2	0.263249784	0
1982m3	0.535242635	0
1982m4	0.844144553	1
1982m5	0.888094733	1
1982m6	0.812690873	1
1982m7	0.86661847	1
1982m8	0.308958983	1
1982m9	0.341259632	1
1982m10	0.352542063	1
1982m11	0.251624459	0
1982m12	0.551098954	0
1983m1	0.127951515	0
1983m2	0.017775	0
1983m3	0.001525	0
1983m4	0.001166667	0
1983m5	0	0
1983m6	0	0
1983m7	0	0
1983m8	0	0
1983m9	0	0
1983m10	0	0
1983m11	0	0
1983m12	0	0
1984m1	0	0
1984m2	0	0
1984m3	0	0
1984m4	0	0
1984m5	0	0
1984m6	0	0
1984m7	0	0
1984m8	0	0
1984m9	0	0
1984m10	0.000766667	0
1984m11	0	0
1984m12	0.01245119	0
1985m1	0	0
1985m2	0.0002	0
1985m3	0.014704762	0
1985m4	0	0
1985m5	0	0
1985m6	0	0
1985m7	0	0
1985m8	0	0
1985m9	0	0
1985m10	0.005533333	0
1985m11	0.002766667	0
1985m12	0	0
1986m1	0.002333333	0
1986m2	0.008263095	0
1986m3	0.073960931	0
1986m4	0.005108947	0
1986m5	0.012457143	0
1986m6	0	0
1986m7	0.107333766	0
1986m8	0.052943831	0
1986m9	0	0
1986m10	0.0002	0
1986m11	0.246613709	0
1986m12	0.20442215	0
1987m1	0.067115801	0
1987m2	0.009638889	0
1987m3	0.015794444	0
1987m4	0	0
1987m5	0	0
1987m6	0	0
1987m7	0.0002	0
1987m8	0.0006	0
1987m9	0.000833333	0
1987m10	0	0
1987m11	0	0
1987m12	0	0
1988m1	0	0
1988m2	0	0
1988m3	0	0
1988m4	0	0
1988m5	0	0
1988m6	0	0
1988m7	0	0
1988m8	0	0
1988m9	0	0
1988m10	0.000333333	0
1988m11	0	0
1988m12	0.0002	0
1989m1	0.008019048	0
1989m2	0	0
1989m3	0	0
1989m4	0	0
1989m5	0.001866667	0
1989m6	0.003088312	0
1989m7	0.168438672	0
1989m8	0	0
1989m9	0.0002	0
1989m10	0.0002	0
1989m11	0.100782143	0
1989m12	0.014788095	0
1990m1	0	0
1990m2	0.002966667	0
1990m3	0	0
1990m4	0.003233333	0
1990m5	0.006267857	0
1990m6	0.001525	0
1990m7	0	0
1990m8	0	0
1990m9	0	0
1990m10	0.002266667	0
1990m11	0.022413889	0
1990m12	0.201929654	0
1991m1	0.025294444	0
1991m2	0.003785714	0
1991m3	0	0
1991m4	0.0002	0
1991m5	0.0002	0
1991m6	0	0
1991m7	0.016628571	0
1991m8	0	0
1991m9	0	0
1991m10	0	0
1991m11	0	0
1991m12	0	0
1992m1	0.012604762	0
1992m2	0	0
1992m3	0	0
1992m4	0	0
1992m5	0	0
1992m6	0	0
1992m7	0	0
1992m8	0	0
1992m9	0.0002	0
1992m10	0.0002	0
1992m11	0.0012	0
1992m12	0.027858009	0
1993m1	0.039003247	0
1993m2	0.02476158	0
1993m3	0.010656746	0
1993m4	0	0
1993m5	0	0
1993m6	0.0005	0
1993m7	0.001628571	0
1993m8	0.004805952	0
1993m9	0.000652381	0
1993m10	0	0
1993m11	0	0
1993m12	0	0
1994m1	0.005652381	0
1994m2	0	0
1994m3	0	0
1994m4	0	0
1994m5	0	0
1994m6	0	0
1994m7	0	0
1994m8	0	0
1994m9	0	0
1994m10	0	0
1994m11	0	0
1994m12	0.0002	0
1995m1	0	0
1995m2	0	0
1995m3	0.001192857	0
1995m4	0	0
1995m5	0	0
1995m6	0.003277381	0
1995m7	0.009528571	0
1995m8	0.001195238	0
1995m9	0	0
1995m10	0	0
1995m11	0.0006	0
1995m12	0.0013	0
1996m1	0.003635714	0
1996m2	0	0
1996m3	0	0
1996m4	0	0
1996m5	0	0
1996m6	0	0
1996m7	0	0
1996m8	0	0
1996m9	0	0
1996m10	0	0
1996m11	0	0
1996m12	0	0
1997m1	0	0
1997m2	0	0
1997m3	0.0005	0
1997m4	0	0
1997m5	0	0
1997m6	0	0
1997m7	0	0
1997m8	0	0
1997m9	0	0
1997m10	0	0
1997m11	0	0
1997m12	0	0
1998m1	0.019040079	0
1998m2	0.028965584	0
1998m3	0.092410245	0
1998m4	0.178350866	0
1998m5	0.121528427	0
1998m6	0.027632251	0
1998m7	0.048995671	0
1998m8	0.001192857	0
1998m9	0.002998016	0
1998m10	0	0
1998m11	0	0
1998m12	0	0
1999m1	0	0
1999m2	0.007029762	0
1999m3	0.006867857	0
1999m4	0.000966667	0
1999m5	0.003542857	0
1999m6	0	0
1999m7	0	0
1999m8	0	0
1999m9	0.00767619	0
1999m10	0	0
1999m11	0	0
1999m12	0	0
2000m1	0	0
2000m2	0	0
2000m3	0.029597222	0
2000m4	0	0
2000m5	0.066555556	0
2000m6	0.085334163	0
2000m7	0.02787702	0
2000m8	0.053794156	0
2000m9	0.147293254	0
2000m10	0.024594913	0
2000m11	0.093689827	0
2000m12	0.127375144	0
2001m1	0.383337266	0
2001m2	0.141715693	0
2001m3	0.493491775	0
2001m4	0.301891089	1
2001m5	0.620816919	1
2001m6	0.639727128	1
2001m7	0.863820996	1
2001m8	0.840403427	1
2001m9	0.795131349	1
2001m10	0.859287193	1
2001m11	0.255627633	1
2001m12	0.009495635	0
2002m1	0.024527994	0
2002m2	0.115846104	0
2002m3	0.008867857	0
2002m4	0.000142857	0
2002m5	0.0022	0
2002m6	0.052302886	0
2002m7	0.017906421	0
2002m8	0.017158009	0
2002m9	0.026139755	0
2002m10	0.020933009	0
2002m11	0.20851241	0
2002m12	0.21326075	0
2003m1	0.179211255	0
2003m2	0.163379437	0
2003m3	0	0
2003m4	0.003861508	0
2003m5	0.006117063	0
2003m6	0.000325	0
2003m7	0	0
2003m8	0.003885714	0
2003m9	0	0
2003m10	0	0
2003m11	0	0
2003m12	0	0
2004m1	0	0
2004m2	0	0
2004m3	0	0
2004m4	0	0
2004m5	0	0
2004m6	0	0
2004m7	0	0
2004m8	0	0
2004m9	0	0
2004m10	0	0
2004m11	0	0
2004m12	0	0
2005m1	0	0
2005m2	0	0
2005m3	0	0
2005m4	0	0
2005m5	0	0
2005m6	0	0
2005m7	0	0
2005m8	0	0
2005m9	0	0
2005m10	0	0
2005m11	0	0
2005m12	0	0
2006m1	0	0
2006m2	0	0
2006m3	0	0
2006m4	0	0
2006m5	0	0
2006m6	0	0
2006m7	0	0
2006m8	0	0
2006m9	0	0
2006m10	0	0
2006m11	0	0
2006m12	0	0
2007m1	0	0
2007m2	0	0
2007m3	0	0
2007m4	0	0
2007m5	0	0
2007m6	0	0
2007m7	0	0
2007m8	0	0
2007m9	0	0
2007m10	0	0
2007m11	0.013304762	0
2007m12	0	0
2008m1	0.060899387	0
2008m2	0.026566306	0
2008m3	0.188834199	0
2008m4	0.021261724	0
2008m5	0.466476587	1
2008m6	0.525848665	1
2008m7	0.88902619	1
2008m8	0.811195743	1
2008m9	0.656216553	1
2008m10	0.749349273	1
2008m11	0.930890976	1
2008m12	0.93192669	1
2009m1	0.928057642	1
2009m2	0.93182669	1
2009m3	0.915590976	1
2009m4	0.62684314	0
2009m5	0.097177525	0
2009m6	0.025922655	0
2009m7	0	0
2009m8	0	0
2009m9	0	0
2009m10	0	0
2009m11	0	0
2009m12	0	0
2010m1	0	0
2010m2	0	0
2010m3	0	0
2010m4	0	0
2010m5	0.010139286	0
2010m6	0	0
2010m7	0	0
2010m8	0	0
2010m9	0	0
2010m10	0	0
2010m11	0	0
2010m12	0	0
2011m1	0	0
2011m2	0	0
2011m3	0	0
2011m4	0.0006	0
2011m5	0.000325	0
2011m6	0	0
2011m7	0	0
2011m8	0.000966667	0
2011m9	0	0
2011m10	0.003066667	0
2011m11	0.0004	0
2011m12	0	0
2012m1	0	0
2012m2	0	0
2012m3	0	0
2012m4	0	0
2012m5	0.001392857	0
2012m6	0.006275397	0
2012m7	0	0
2012m8	0.0002	0
2012m9	0	0
2012m10	0.000166667	0
2012m11	0	0
2012m12	0.000819048	0
2013m1	0	0
2013m2	0.0004	0
2013m3	0	0
2013m4	0.000966667	0
2013m5	0	0
2013m6	0	0
2013m7	0	0
2013m8	0	0
2013m9	0	0
2013m10	0	0
2013m11	0	0
2013m12	0	0
2014m1	0	0
2014m2	0.0002	0
2014m3	0.0002	0
2014m4	0.0006	0
2014m5	0	0
2014m6	0	0
2014m7	0	0
2014m8	0	0
2014m9	0	0
2014m10	0	0
2014m11	0	0
2014m12	0	0
2015m1	0	0
2015m2	0.006	0
2015m3	0	0
2015m4	0.000325	0
2015m5	0	0
2015m6	0.0004	0
2015m7	0	0
2015m8	0.000966667	0
2015m9	0	0
2015m10	0.007574206	0
2015m11	0.005045635	0
2015m12	0.023252994	0
2016m1	0.218048016	0
2016m2	0.183948016	0
2016m3	0.0014	0
2016m4	0.0005	0
2016m5	0.01205119	0
2016m6	0.0008	0
2016m7	0.004085714	0
2016m8	0.008161905	0
2016m9	0	0
2016m10	0	0
2016m11	0	0
2016m12	0	0
2017m1	0	0
2017m2	0	0
2017m3	0	0
2017m4	0	0
2017m5	0	0
2017m6	0	0
2017m7	0	0
2017m8	0.000366667	0
2017m9	0	0
2017m10	0	0
2017m11	0	0
2017m12	0	0

One year ahead probability of recession (k=12)

	12 month ahead probability of recession (k = 12)
date	world_rec_prob_ads_ebp_rf_f12	recession (1 = true)
1973m1	0.046321898	0
1973m2	0.043060786	0
1973m3	0.006271032	0
1973m4	0.000850794	0
1973m5	0.012305556	0
1973m6	0.331160606	0
1973m7	0.222308333	0
1973m8	0.20732381	0
1973m9	0.224629365	0
1973m10	0.214977475	0
1973m11	0.206309113	0
1973m12	0.254308297	0
1974m1	0.279103896	0
1974m2	0.68486544	0
1974m3	0.354589466	0
1974m4	0.630076082	0
1974m5	0.689348521	0
1974m6	0.395822619	1
1974m7	0.737703283	1
1974m8	0.41761158	1
1974m9	0.92954881	1
1974m10	0.94877114	1
1974m11	0.931288745	1
1974m12	0.946122078	1
1975m1	0.663231926	1
1975m2	0.646239141	1
1975m3	0.492803355	1
1975m4	0.37339246	1
1975m5	0.234633405	1
1975m6	0.013872605	1
1975m7	0.025869048	1
1975m8	0.055402561	1
1975m9	0.026310714	1
1975m10	0.078409524	1
1975m11	0.016047605	1
1975m12	0.02018373	1
1976m1	0.021413384	0
1976m2	0.013551587	0
1976m3	0.011416667	0
1976m4	0.111831097	0
1976m5	0.018311905	0
1976m6	0.137891198	0
1976m7	0.005195238	0
1976m8	0.0008	0
1976m9	0.006505952	0
1976m10	0.003773413	0
1976m11	0.003709524	0
1976m12	0.100279329	0
1977m1	0.001766667	0
1977m2	0.002310714	0
1977m3	0.007969048	0
1977m4	0.007157143	0
1977m5	0.020557143	0
1977m6	0.041784163	0
1977m7	0.006746032	0
1977m8	0.085361111	0
1977m9	0.006631349	0
1977m10	0.056244997	0
1977m11	0.004233333	0
1977m12	0.008642857	0
1978m1	0.036484921	0
1978m2	0.004805159	0
1978m3	0.014018651	0
1978m4	0.000711111	0
1978m5	0.000111111	0
1978m6	0.037854798	0
1978m7	0.013354004	0
1978m8	0.002456782	0
1978m9	0	0
1978m10	0.014888889	0
1978m11	0.000691667	0
1978m12	0.013237241	0
1979m1	0.044586905	0
1979m2	0.008555159	0
1979m3	0.127558802	0
1979m4	0.008049206	0
1979m5	0.004033333	0
1979m6	0.013575733	0
1979m7	0.004387302	0
1979m8	0.000566667	0
1979m9	0.006088492	0
1979m10	0.030391775	0
1979m11	0.02182381	0
1979m12	0.028353968	0
1980m1	0.024985317	0
1980m2	0.017904365	0
1980m3	0.024423016	0
1980m4	0.15551811	0
1980m5	0.335295058	0
1980m6	0.39394798	0
1980m7	0.388321068	0
1980m8	0.270251371	0
1980m9	0.040821825	0
1980m10	0.009230952	0
1980m11	0.043451912	0
1980m12	0.118048882	0
1981m1	0.093469733	0
1981m2	0.01889881	0
1981m3	0.038189863	0
1981m4	0.559448449	0
1981m5	0.349399603	0
1981m6	0.567699206	0
1981m7	0.405294805	0
1981m8	0.355971176	0
1981m9	0.252227417	0
1981m10	0.849364069	0
1981m11	0.717605519	0
1981m12	0.841670924	0
1982m1	0.925649062	0
1982m2	0.770507648	0
1982m3	0.863827886	0
1982m4	0.951815981	1
1982m5	0.964618434	1
1982m6	0.856598449	1
1982m7	0.904806061	1
1982m8	0.691278896	1
1982m9	0.512059632	1
1982m10	0.516681133	1
1982m11	0.495421861	0
1982m12	0.660074675	0
1983m1	0.495951623	0
1983m2	0.252784668	0
1983m3	0.0017	0
1983m4	0.064186255	0
1983m5	0.047914286	0
1983m6	0.026527778	0
1983m7	0.048989683	0
1983m8	0.00241746	0
1983m9	0.012193651	0
1983m10	0.013901587	0
1983m11	0.032115188	0
1983m12	0.007911508	0
1984m1	0.054004978	0
1984m2	0.00304127	0
1984m3	0.024394444	0
1984m4	0.0794693	0
1984m5	0.005819048	0
1984m6	0.11227298	0
1984m7	0.015996429	0
1984m8	0.032450397	0
1984m9	0.192952969	0
1984m10	0.035052381	0
1984m11	0.021864286	0
1984m12	0.005598016	0
1985m1	0.011852381	0
1985m2	0.002102381	0
1985m3	0.013398413	0
1985m4	0.004316667	0
1985m5	0.011864286	0
1985m6	0.037348088	0
1985m7	0.015728283	0
1985m8	0.023558442	0
1985m9	0.022755952	0
1985m10	0.15535974	0
1985m11	0.053224928	0
1985m12	0.106377778	0
1986m1	0.023680159	0
1986m2	0.015541667	0
1986m3	0.576724711	0
1986m4	0.076235029	0
1986m5	0.065639791	0
1986m6	0.150661508	0
1986m7	0.461045094	0
1986m8	0.519528463	0
1986m9	0.044009848	0
1986m10	0.12888741	0
1986m11	0.332501587	0
1986m12	0.278176696	0
1987m1	0.318049062	0
1987m2	0.296145346	0
1987m3	0.205607576	0
1987m4	0.036296429	0
1987m5	0.022711616	0
1987m6	0.006279365	0
1987m7	0.025586111	0
1987m8	0.051546429	0
1987m9	0.148141089	0
1987m10	0.074780664	0
1987m11	0.008746032	0
1987m12	0.007585317	0
1988m1	0.001877778	0
1988m2	0.029091919	0
1988m3	0.016416558	0
1988m4	0.056454701	0
1988m5	0.098261941	0
1988m6	0.121953716	0
1988m7	0.0002	0
1988m8	0.079872439	0
1988m9	0.009629365	0
1988m10	0.060157431	0
1988m11	0.02303254	0
1988m12	0.04452215	0
1989m1	0.044765079	0
1989m2	0.056165823	0
1989m3	0.038400649	0
1989m4	0.080219553	0
1989m5	0.006830159	0
1989m6	0.065960029	0
1989m7	0.284791198	0
1989m8	0.069741306	0
1989m9	0.069140296	0
1989m10	0.067605375	0
1989m11	0.28154062	0
1989m12	0.201886075	0
1990m1	0.014245635	0
1990m2	0.111256494	0
1990m3	0.159314719	0
1990m4	0.105691667	0
1990m5	0.006053968	0
1990m6	0.0017	0
1990m7	0.06936746	0
1990m8	0	0
1990m9	0.073621176	0
1990m10	0.058881566	0
1990m11	0.173207359	0
1990m12	0.359133333	0
1991m1	0.216210823	0
1991m2	0.086953571	0
1991m3	0.019997619	0
1991m4	0.004694841	0
1991m5	0.098155447	0
1991m6	0.058291234	0
1991m7	0.066568975	0
1991m8	0.003613095	0
1991m9	0.012524206	0
1991m10	0.002302381	0
1991m11	0.002336905	0
1991m12	0.003013095	0
1992m1	0.04770013	0
1992m2	0.020051177	0
1992m3	0.058550924	0
1992m4	0.044923796	0
1992m5	0.107152056	0
1992m6	0.134121609	0
1992m7	0.014361111	0
1992m8	0.007704762	0
1992m9	0.016542857	0
1992m10	0.002584524	0
1992m11	0.025506999	0
1992m12	0.184603211	0
1993m1	0.193672078	0
1993m2	0.16173456	0
1993m3	0.15484127	0
1993m4	0.011570887	0
1993m5	0.005234921	0
1993m6	0.036813492	0
1993m7	0.009470635	0
1993m8	0.037122619	0
1993m9	0.030164683	0
1993m10	0.025481746	0
1993m11	0.016066126	0
1993m12	0.012796032	0
1994m1	0.023905159	0
1994m2	0.01384881	0
1994m3	0.001142857	0
1994m4	0.016157143	0
1994m5	0.004086905	0
1994m6	0	0
1994m7	0.00705	0
1994m8	0.003085714	0
1994m9	0.020188095	0
1994m10	0.0012	0
1994m11	0.000852381	0
1994m12	0.002533333	0
1995m1	0.010680952	0
1995m2	0.005325397	0
1995m3	0.003788492	0
1995m4	0.036438889	0
1995m5	0.02718254	0
1995m6	0.034778571	0
1995m7	0.017269444	0
1995m8	0.004852381	0
1995m9	0.016471429	0
1995m10	0.010978968	0
1995m11	0.022209127	0
1995m12	0.049354762	0
1996m1	0.024502381	0
1996m2	0.070662698	0
1996m3	0.005455952	0
1996m4	0	0
1996m5	0.000658333	0
1996m6	0.00248486	0
1996m7	0	0
1996m8	0.009171429	0
1996m9	0.01727619	0
1996m10	0.017392063	0
1996m11	0.0002	0
1996m12	0.015964574	0
1997m1	0.000533333	0
1997m2	0.020207143	0
1997m3	0.06049127	0
1997m4	0.004719048	0
1997m5	0.100869048	0
1997m6	0.004782937	0
1997m7	0.004667857	0
1997m8	0.153057948	0
1997m9	0	0
1997m10	0.076815945	0
1997m11	0.001377381	0
1997m12	0.003017857	0
1998m1	0.072205014	0
1998m2	0.067957756	0
1998m3	0.14956811	0
1998m4	0.301016342	0
1998m5	0.150901696	0
1998m6	0.084639502	0
1998m7	0.119389214	0
1998m8	0.004281349	0
1998m9	0.006232143	0
1998m10	0.007171032	0
1998m11	0.032170224	0
1998m12	0.042596032	0
1999m1	0.020582937	0
1999m2	0.022366667	0
1999m3	0.00247619	0
1999m4	0.079946429	0
1999m5	0.026443651	0
1999m6	0.0008	0
1999m7	0.01207619	0
1999m8	0.193161916	0
1999m9	0.12118373	0
1999m10	0.023298557	0
1999m11	0.029465873	0
1999m12	0.001250794	0
2000m1	0.197290476	0
2000m2	0.02973438	0
2000m3	0.141799567	0
2000m4	0.42043676	0
2000m5	0.583049928	0
2000m6	0.588562121	0
2000m7	0.57211811	0
2000m8	0.545807648	0
2000m9	0.70319816	0
2000m10	0.480565368	0
2000m11	0.569879113	0
2000m12	0.62287803	0
2001m1	0.949674206	0
2001m2	0.813470238	0
2001m3	0.960548413	0
2001m4	0.515593038	1
2001m5	0.807054798	1
2001m6	0.948423016	1
2001m7	0.91545938	1
2001m8	0.910685065	1
2001m9	0.947538636	1
2001m10	0.977639069	1
2001m11	0.486248449	1
2001m12	0.228886508	0
2002m1	0.177465693	0
2002m2	0.298625794	0
2002m3	0.004755556	0
2002m4	0.019488672	0
2002m5	0.088005664	0
2002m6	0.355808009	0
2002m7	0.295498954	0
2002m8	0.299314466	0
2002m9	0.320512049	0
2002m10	0.321788709	0
2002m11	0.584361291	0
2002m12	0.410718506	0
2003m1	0.328716126	0
2003m2	0.258929257	0
2003m3	0.014615873	0
2003m4	0.161056025	0
2003m5	0.126392063	0
2003m6	0.04592381	0
2003m7	0.022109235	0
2003m8	0.006551587	0
2003m9	0.011873846	0
2003m10	0.005988925	0
2003m11	0.006738131	0
2003m12	0.010066703	0
2004m1	0.095530664	0
2004m2	0.0002	0
2004m3	0.002091667	0
2004m4	0.084885426	0
2004m5	0.002425	0
2004m6	0.04214127	0
2004m7	0.000658333	0
2004m8	0.004070238	0
2004m9	0.015379762	0
2004m10	0.000291667	0
2004m11	0.030261616	0
2004m12	0.017309235	0
2005m1	0.023175902	0
2005m2	0.01494733	0
2005m3	0.092337349	0
2005m4	0.00973254	0
2005m5	0.031893987	0
2005m6	0	0
2005m7	0.02155119	0
2005m8	0.014089286	0
2005m9	0.114210354	0
2005m10	0.006476923	0
2005m11	0.004467893	0
2005m12	0.020758369	0
2006m1	0.004800072	0
2006m2	0.002967893	0
2006m3	0.032371465	0
2006m4	0.069960256	0
2006m5	0.004636508	0
2006m6	0.006652381	0
2006m7	0.0027	0
2006m8	0.015728175	0
2006m9	0.02347619	0
2006m10	0.048297161	0
2006m11	0.017229834	0
2006m12	0.006596861	0
2007m1	0.018069084	0
2007m2	0.0331421	0
2007m3	0.003456782	0
2007m4	0.004490115	0
2007m5	0.232526732	0
2007m6	0.216853799	0
2007m7	0.290310245	0
2007m8	0.251148124	0
2007m9	0.321510245	0
2007m10	0.241310426	0
2007m11	0.280716847	0
2007m12	0.317128175	0
2008m1	0.549739899	0
2008m2	0.588403427	0
2008m3	0.738548521	0
2008m4	0.345479726	0
2008m5	0.828907107	1
2008m6	0.790289502	1
2008m7	0.969184452	1
2008m8	0.968341631	1
2008m9	0.752002201	1
2008m10	0.896334055	1
2008m11	0.93755588	1
2008m12	0.939460642	1
2009m1	0.936127309	1
2009m2	0.938860642	1
2009m3	0.927619372	1
2009m4	0.718359957	0
2009m5	0.516733766	0
2009m6	0.38506324	0
2009m7	0.040262374	0
2009m8	0.01099881	0
2009m9	0.00371746	0
2009m10	0.000111111	0
2009m11	0.034659921	0
2009m12	0.020819877	0
2010m1	0.061130314	0
2010m2	0.178826551	0
2010m3	0.04292702	0
2010m4	0.00711746	0
2010m5	0.011785714	0
2010m6	0.013757143	0
2010m7	0.09099632	0
2010m8	0.080854834	0
2010m9	0.063888828	0
2010m10	0.066185426	0
2010m11	0.065196825	0
2010m12	0.072423521	0
2011m1	0.225875325	0
2011m2	0	0
2011m3	0.005390873	0
2011m4	0.006090873	0
2011m5	0.00417619	0
2011m6	0.021306746	0
2011m7	0.022199603	0
2011m8	0.028744841	0
2011m9	0.015831349	0
2011m10	0.015250397	0
2011m11	0.025220815	0
2011m12	0.007022619	0
2012m1	0.046651587	0
2012m2	0.020378968	0
2012m3	0.001133333	0
2012m4	0.002721825	0
2012m5	0.002636111	0
2012m6	0.170649711	0
2012m7	0.008088095	0
2012m8	0.126286905	0
2012m9	0.002621825	0
2012m10	0.005051984	0
2012m11	0.005180952	0
2012m12	0.040852381	0
2013m1	0.00275	0
2013m2	0.003869444	0
2013m3	0.058506349	0
2013m4	0.071125397	0
2013m5	0.002167857	0
2013m6	0.091859127	0
2013m7	0.008538492	0
2013m8	0.011819048	0
2013m9	0.004564683	0
2013m10	0.021356746	0
2013m11	0.118554401	0
2013m12	0.0004	0
2014m1	0.002519444	0
2014m2	0.021778824	0
2014m3	0.020103968	0
2014m4	0.082708333	0
2014m5	0.080432937	0
2014m6	0.018324603	0
2014m7	0.045780556	0
2014m8	0.024082143	0
2014m9	0	0
2014m10	0.009242857	0
2014m11	0.037723196	0
2014m12	0.059742172	0
2015m1	0.046013492	0
2015m2	0.035797619	0
2015m3	0.003655159	0
2015m4	0.000709524	0
2015m5	0.006467063	0
2015m6	0.008230556	0
2015m7	0.07947697	0
2015m8	0.016330952	0
2015m9	0.058430195	0
2015m10	0.006821825	0
2015m11	0.035933117	0
2015m12	0.256946789	0
2016m1	0.233799964	0
2016m2	0.2042943	0
2016m3	0.070547258	0
2016m4	0.009895238	0
2016m5	0.005860714	0
2016m6	0.005417063	0
2016m7	0.019140873	0
2016m8	0.019425397	0
2016m9	0.012749603	0
2016m10	0.030710317	0
2016m11	0.01324733	0
2016m12	0.070167063	0
2017m1	0.068075	0
2017m2	0.001528968	0
2017m3	0.067951587	0
2017m4	0.080097619	0
2017m5	0.001266667	0
2017m6	0.0004	0
2017m7	0.0012	0
2017m8	0.035252381	0
2017m9	0.001475	0
2017m10	0.000933333	0
2017m11	0.000566667	0
2017m12	0.007796825	0

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Figure 4: World Recession Probability Heat Map

Figure 4 depicts our estimates of recession probability in the world economy as a function of the GCI and EBP indices. There are two panels. The left panel corresponds to the contemporaneous probability of recession (k=0). Whereas the right panel shows the probability of a world recession within any of the following twelve months (k=12). In each panel the information is summarized in the form of a heat map. The horizontal axis shows the GCI and ranges from -5 to 3 (inverted scale). The vertical axis corresponds to values of the EBP and it ranges from -1.5 to 3.5. We observe four quadrants in the heat map. For positive values of the GCI that are greater than -1 and values of the EBP lower than 0.5 the recession probability are close to their respective unconditional means. This region corresponds to the bottom left quadrant of the figure. For values of the GCI below -1 and values of the EBP above 0.5 the recession probability increases notoriously to a range between 70-100%. This region corresponds to the top right quadrant of the figure. Finally for other combinations of the GCI and EBP the recession probability is consistently below 40% but above its respective unconditional mean. These combinations correspond to the bottom right and top left quadrants in the figure.

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