Accessible Version
Recoveries and Trade: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?, Accessible Data
Figure 1. AE GDP
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged (n=41) | Pegged + 2 s.e. | Pegged - 2 s.e. | Flexible (n=66) | Flexible + 2 s.e. | Flexible - 2 s.e. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 98.63 | 100.28 | 96.97 | 97.90 | 99.21 | 96.59 |
-11 | 99.29 | 100.88 | 97.70 | 98.40 | 99.60 | 97.19 |
-10 | 99.62 | 101.16 | 98.07 | 99.03 | 100.21 | 97.86 |
-9 | 100.28 | 101.66 | 98.90 | 99.51 | 100.57 | 98.46 |
-8 | 100.99 | 102.32 | 99.66 | 100.41 | 101.26 | 99.56 |
-7 | 101.14 | 102.35 | 99.92 | 100.80 | 101.67 | 99.93 |
-6 | 101.46 | 102.68 | 100.24 | 101.43 | 102.28 | 100.58 |
-5 | 101.83 | 102.94 | 100.71 | 101.49 | 102.12 | 100.85 |
-4 | 102.05 | 102.98 | 101.11 | 101.85 | 102.42 | 101.29 |
-3 | 102.01 | 102.88 | 101.14 | 101.65 | 102.14 | 101.16 |
-2 | 101.69 | 102.41 | 100.98 | 101.65 | 102.04 | 101.26 |
-1 | 100.80 | 101.24 | 100.37 | 100.87 | 101.15 | 100.59 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 100.86 | 101.39 | 100.33 | 101.02 | 101.35 | 100.70 |
+2 | 101.51 | 102.09 | 100.93 | 101.86 | 102.33 | 101.39 |
+3 | 101.76 | 102.31 | 101.21 | 102.65 | 103.13 | 102.16 |
+4 | 102.54 | 103.22 | 101.85 | 103.27 | 103.82 | 102.73 |
+5 | 102.98 | 103.64 | 102.32 | 104.05 | 104.58 | 103.53 |
+6 | 103.54 | 104.37 | 102.72 | 104.80 | 105.38 | 104.22 |
+7 | 104.01 | 104.86 | 103.17 | 105.75 | 106.42 | 105.07 |
+8 | 104.45 | 105.31 | 103.59 | 106.24 | 106.95 | 105.53 |
+9 | 105.06 | 106.03 | 104.10 | 106.77 | 107.51 | 106.02 |
+10 | 105.33 | 106.34 | 104.32 | 107.61 | 108.42 | 106.79 |
+11 | 106.13 | 107.89 | 104.38 | 108.27 | 109.13 | 107.41 |
+12 | 106.62 | 108.48 | 104.75 | 108.99 | 109.92 | 108.06 |
+13 | 107.02 | 109.02 | 105.03 | 109.61 | 110.66 | 108.57 |
+14 | 107.52 | 109.67 | 105.36 | 110.66 | 111.87 | 109.44 |
+15 | 107.87 | 110.15 | 105.58 | 111.39 | 112.69 | 110.09 |
Thick lines are means. Thin lines denote two standard error bands.
Figure 2. AE GDP
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged (n=12) | Pegged + 2 s.e. | Pegged - 2 s.e. | Euro area (n=29) | Euro area + 2 s.e. | Euro area - 2 s.e. | Flexible (n=66) | Flexible + 2 s.e. | Flexible - 2 s.e. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 96.79 | 98.74 | 94.83 | 99.39 | 101.56 | 97.21 | 97.90 | 99.21 | 96.59 |
-11 | 97.18 | 98.98 | 95.38 | 100.16 | 102.23 | 98.10 | 98.40 | 99.60 | 97.19 |
-10 | 96.94 | 99.04 | 94.83 | 100.72 | 102.61 | 98.83 | 99.03 | 100.21 | 97.86 |
-9 | 98.04 | 99.58 | 96.49 | 101.21 | 102.97 | 99.45 | 99.51 | 100.57 | 98.46 |
-8 | 98.41 | 99.82 | 97.00 | 102.06 | 103.71 | 100.41 | 100.41 | 101.26 | 99.56 |
-7 | 98.81 | 100.11 | 97.52 | 102.10 | 103.61 | 100.59 | 100.80 | 101.67 | 99.93 |
-6 | 99.56 | 101.47 | 97.65 | 102.25 | 103.71 | 100.78 | 101.43 | 102.28 | 100.58 |
-5 | 100.11 | 101.60 | 98.61 | 102.54 | 103.93 | 101.15 | 101.49 | 102.12 | 100.85 |
-4 | 100.73 | 102.11 | 99.36 | 102.59 | 103.75 | 101.44 | 101.85 | 102.42 | 101.29 |
-3 | 101.16 | 102.81 | 99.52 | 102.36 | 103.39 | 101.33 | 101.65 | 102.14 | 101.16 |
-2 | 101.73 | 103.49 | 99.98 | 101.68 | 102.43 | 100.93 | 101.65 | 102.04 | 101.26 |
-1 | 101.14 | 102.40 | 99.89 | 100.66 | 101.03 | 100.29 | 100.87 | 101.15 | 100.59 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 101.64 | 103.33 | 99.95 | 100.54 | 100.82 | 100.25 | 101.02 | 101.35 | 100.70 |
+2 | 102.45 | 104.23 | 100.66 | 101.12 | 101.47 | 100.77 | 101.86 | 102.33 | 101.39 |
+3 | 102.35 | 103.79 | 100.92 | 101.51 | 102.03 | 100.99 | 102.65 | 103.13 | 102.16 |
+4 | 103.39 | 105.02 | 101.77 | 102.19 | 102.88 | 101.49 | 103.27 | 103.82 | 102.73 |
+5 | 103.74 | 105.22 | 102.26 | 102.67 | 103.38 | 101.96 | 104.05 | 104.58 | 103.53 |
+6 | 104.76 | 106.78 | 102.75 | 103.04 | 103.84 | 102.24 | 104.80 | 105.38 | 104.22 |
+7 | 104.80 | 106.29 | 103.31 | 103.69 | 104.71 | 102.66 | 105.75 | 106.42 | 105.07 |
+8 | 105.46 | 107.15 | 103.77 | 104.03 | 105.02 | 103.05 | 106.24 | 106.95 | 105.53 |
+9 | 106.20 | 107.85 | 104.54 | 104.59 | 105.76 | 103.42 | 106.77 | 107.51 | 106.02 |
+10 | 106.56 | 108.23 | 104.88 | 104.82 | 106.05 | 103.59 | 107.61 | 108.42 | 106.79 |
+11 | 107.04 | 108.77 | 105.31 | 105.76 | 108.16 | 103.36 | 108.27 | 109.13 | 107.41 |
+12 | 107.68 | 109.52 | 105.83 | 106.18 | 108.72 | 103.63 | 108.99 | 109.92 | 108.06 |
+13 | 108.14 | 109.99 | 106.29 | 106.54 | 109.30 | 103.79 | 109.61 | 110.66 | 108.57 |
+14 | 108.95 | 110.81 | 107.10 | 106.90 | 109.89 | 103.92 | 110.66 | 111.87 | 109.44 |
+15 | 109.59 | 111.46 | 107.72 | 107.07 | 110.30 | 103.85 | 111.39 | 112.69 | 110.09 |
Thick lines are means. Thin lines denote two standard error bands.
Figure 3. EME GDP
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged (n=19) | Pegged + 2 s.e. | Pegged - 2 s.e. | Flexible (n=78) | Flexible + 2 s.e. | Flexible - 2 s.e. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 98.70 | 104.78 | 92.63 | 97.47 | 100.21 | 94.72 |
-11 | 99.72 | 105.95 | 93.50 | 98.90 | 101.69 | 96.11 |
-10 | 101.12 | 107.38 | 94.86 | 99.72 | 102.23 | 97.20 |
-9 | 102.73 | 109.02 | 96.44 | 100.58 | 102.96 | 98.20 |
-8 | 104.59 | 110.76 | 98.43 | 101.72 | 104.02 | 99.42 |
-7 | 105.34 | 111.15 | 99.53 | 102.24 | 104.24 | 100.23 |
-6 | 105.80 | 111.02 | 100.59 | 103.15 | 104.88 | 101.41 |
-5 | 107.03 | 112.10 | 101.96 | 104.48 | 106.09 | 102.87 |
-4 | 106.61 | 111.26 | 101.96 | 105.44 | 106.84 | 104.03 |
-3 | 105.19 | 108.62 | 101.75 | 104.56 | 105.75 | 103.37 |
-2 | 103.89 | 107.07 | 100.71 | 103.87 | 104.87 | 102.88 |
-1 | 102.04 | 103.94 | 100.14 | 102.24 | 103.00 | 101.49 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 102.76 | 105.19 | 100.33 | 101.79 | 102.21 | 101.38 |
+2 | 103.66 | 105.90 | 101.41 | 103.34 | 103.91 | 102.76 |
+3 | 105.65 | 108.53 | 102.76 | 104.86 | 105.54 | 104.18 |
+4 | 107.81 | 111.47 | 104.15 | 106.43 | 107.32 | 105.55 |
+5 | 108.94 | 112.69 | 105.20 | 107.89 | 108.90 | 106.88 |
+6 | 110.20 | 114.24 | 106.16 | 108.81 | 109.95 | 107.66 |
+7 | 111.83 | 116.00 | 107.66 | 110.16 | 111.55 | 108.77 |
+8 | 113.75 | 118.36 | 109.14 | 111.36 | 112.93 | 109.79 |
+9 | 114.52 | 119.60 | 109.45 | 112.45 | 114.16 | 110.74 |
+10 | 115.64 | 120.89 | 110.40 | 113.51 | 115.30 | 111.72 |
+11 | 116.69 | 122.32 | 111.06 | 114.41 | 116.27 | 112.54 |
+12 | 117.19 | 123.48 | 110.90 | 115.77 | 117.76 | 113.77 |
+13 | 117.92 | 124.66 | 111.18 | 116.63 | 118.80 | 114.45 |
+14 | 119.44 | 126.51 | 112.37 | 117.91 | 120.31 | 115.51 |
+15 | 120.89 | 129.14 | 112.64 | 119.19 | 121.83 | 116.54 |
Thick lines are means. Thin lines denote two standard error bands.
Figure 4. AE Exports
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged (n=10) | Pegged + 2 s.e. | Pegged - 2 s.e. | Euro area (n=29) | Euro area + 2 s.e. | Euro area - 2 s.e. | Flexible (n=60) | Flexible + 2 s.e. | Flexible - 2 s.e. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 90.14 | 94.02 | 86.26 | 94.10 | 98.43 | 89.78 | 93.70 | 96.82 | 90.58 |
-11 | 90.70 | 94.49 | 86.91 | 96.36 | 100.53 | 92.20 | 94.60 | 97.57 | 91.64 |
-10 | 91.74 | 94.92 | 88.57 | 98.02 | 102.16 | 93.89 | 95.63 | 98.52 | 92.74 |
-9 | 92.21 | 95.05 | 89.38 | 99.67 | 104.10 | 95.24 | 95.65 | 98.62 | 92.69 |
-8 | 93.36 | 96.07 | 90.66 | 101.10 | 105.61 | 96.58 | 96.47 | 99.39 | 93.54 |
-7 | 94.68 | 97.52 | 91.84 | 102.13 | 106.91 | 97.35 | 97.94 | 100.85 | 95.02 |
-6 | 96.16 | 99.24 | 93.08 | 102.76 | 107.33 | 98.18 | 99.23 | 102.03 | 96.42 |
-5 | 97.33 | 100.37 | 94.30 | 104.23 | 109.03 | 99.43 | 100.30 | 103.01 | 97.60 |
-4 | 98.36 | 101.24 | 95.48 | 105.94 | 110.71 | 101.17 | 101.68 | 104.45 | 98.90 |
-3 | 98.87 | 101.56 | 96.19 | 105.87 | 110.00 | 101.73 | 101.85 | 104.38 | 99.33 |
-2 | 98.87 | 101.12 | 96.61 | 104.68 | 107.65 | 101.72 | 101.57 | 103.80 | 99.34 |
-1 | 99.52 | 100.75 | 98.28 | 101.10 | 102.50 | 99.71 | 100.19 | 101.63 | 98.76 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 100.53 | 101.58 | 99.47 | 101.07 | 101.87 | 100.27 | 101.90 | 102.64 | 101.17 |
+2 | 101.58 | 103.65 | 99.51 | 103.97 | 105.60 | 102.35 | 103.85 | 104.89 | 102.82 |
+3 | 104.67 | 106.73 | 102.62 | 104.94 | 106.51 | 103.37 | 105.44 | 106.85 | 104.04 |
+4 | 105.60 | 108.30 | 102.90 | 107.19 | 109.23 | 105.16 | 107.52 | 109.14 | 105.91 |
+5 | 107.74 | 110.53 | 104.95 | 109.17 | 111.56 | 106.78 | 109.51 | 111.45 | 107.56 |
+6 | 108.66 | 111.72 | 105.60 | 110.71 | 113.39 | 108.02 | 110.94 | 113.19 | 108.69 |
+7 | 110.38 | 113.94 | 106.83 | 111.16 | 114.05 | 108.26 | 113.27 | 115.66 | 110.88 |
+8 | 112.89 | 117.37 | 108.41 | 112.84 | 115.55 | 110.13 | 114.20 | 116.63 | 111.78 |
+9 | 114.46 | 119.91 | 109.01 | 114.49 | 117.39 | 111.58 | 114.71 | 117.19 | 112.23 |
+10 | 116.24 | 122.50 | 109.97 | 116.08 | 119.04 | 113.12 | 115.82 | 118.52 | 113.12 |
+11 | 116.25 | 120.93 | 111.57 | 118.51 | 122.35 | 114.66 | 117.26 | 119.81 | 114.72 |
+12 | 116.85 | 120.64 | 113.06 | 120.00 | 124.00 | 115.99 | 118.78 | 121.52 | 116.04 |
+13 | 117.52 | 120.89 | 114.15 | 121.53 | 126.06 | 116.99 | 120.33 | 123.24 | 117.42 |
+14 | 121.58 | 128.72 | 114.44 | 122.33 | 127.11 | 117.55 | 121.55 | 124.75 | 118.35 |
+15 | 123.16 | 129.56 | 116.75 | 122.93 | 127.82 | 118.04 | 123.24 | 126.51 | 119.96 |
Thick lines are means. Thin lines denote two standard error bands.
Figure 5. EME Exports
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged (n=16) | Pegged + 2 s.e. | Pegged - 2 s.e. | Flexible (n=69) | Flexible + 2 s.e. | Flexible - 2 s.e. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 100.08 | 115.99 | 84.18 | 90.96 | 94.57 | 87.34 |
-11 | 102.33 | 118.70 | 85.97 | 92.14 | 95.61 | 88.67 |
-10 | 101.79 | 115.75 | 87.83 | 94.25 | 97.78 | 90.72 |
-9 | 104.65 | 119.50 | 89.80 | 95.80 | 99.43 | 92.17 |
-8 | 105.84 | 120.07 | 91.62 | 97.05 | 100.64 | 93.45 |
-7 | 107.76 | 120.55 | 94.98 | 98.19 | 101.67 | 94.71 |
-6 | 110.06 | 122.40 | 97.73 | 101.03 | 104.58 | 97.48 |
-5 | 110.72 | 122.58 | 98.85 | 103.94 | 107.81 | 100.07 |
-4 | 110.37 | 121.69 | 99.06 | 105.70 | 109.41 | 102.00 |
-3 | 109.11 | 119.49 | 98.74 | 105.95 | 110.06 | 101.85 |
-2 | 107.89 | 118.71 | 97.06 | 104.40 | 107.29 | 101.51 |
-1 | 105.03 | 111.35 | 98.71 | 101.90 | 104.55 | 99.25 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 105.76 | 115.00 | 96.53 | 102.21 | 103.58 | 100.84 |
+2 | 108.93 | 116.53 | 101.33 | 103.84 | 105.57 | 102.11 |
+3 | 111.77 | 120.60 | 102.93 | 106.96 | 108.91 | 105.01 |
+4 | 116.02 | 125.61 | 106.44 | 109.39 | 111.47 | 107.32 |
+5 | 118.68 | 127.94 | 109.41 | 112.54 | 114.77 | 110.32 |
+6 | 121.28 | 130.89 | 111.66 | 114.03 | 116.56 | 111.49 |
+7 | 123.92 | 134.11 | 113.72 | 116.98 | 120.03 | 113.94 |
+8 | 127.69 | 138.23 | 117.16 | 119.21 | 122.85 | 115.57 |
+9 | 129.20 | 140.44 | 117.96 | 121.41 | 125.06 | 117.75 |
+10 | 130.95 | 141.77 | 120.12 | 123.07 | 126.78 | 119.36 |
+11 | 134.10 | 146.08 | 122.12 | 123.62 | 127.55 | 119.69 |
+12 | 135.76 | 148.24 | 123.28 | 125.58 | 130.18 | 120.99 |
+13 | 136.88 | 149.80 | 123.96 | 127.99 | 132.46 | 123.53 |
+14 | 138.47 | 152.01 | 124.93 | 130.29 | 135.02 | 125.56 |
+15 | 139.70 | 151.92 | 127.48 | 131.38 | 136.41 | 126.36 |
Thick lines are means. Thin lines denote two standard error bands.
Figure 6. AE Private Domestic Demand
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged (n=10) | Pegged + 2 s.e. | Pegged - 2 s.e. | Euro area (n=29) | Euro area + 2 s.e. | Euro area - 2 s.e. | Flexible (n=60) | Flexible + 2 s.e. | Flexible - 2 s.e. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 95.52 | 98.33 | 92.70 | 100.37 | 103.18 | 97.55 | 100.02 | 102.65 | 97.38 |
-11 | 95.83 | 98.64 | 93.01 | 100.59 | 103.43 | 97.75 | 100.35 | 103.04 | 97.65 |
-10 | 96.36 | 99.33 | 93.38 | 101.31 | 103.94 | 98.67 | 100.50 | 102.89 | 98.10 |
-9 | 96.63 | 99.42 | 93.85 | 101.61 | 104.04 | 99.19 | 101.26 | 103.52 | 99.00 |
-8 | 97.21 | 99.76 | 94.65 | 101.61 | 104.00 | 99.22 | 101.70 | 103.51 | 99.89 |
-7 | 97.71 | 100.09 | 95.33 | 102.00 | 104.10 | 99.91 | 101.91 | 103.63 | 100.19 |
-6 | 98.62 | 100.65 | 96.58 | 101.87 | 103.45 | 100.30 | 102.10 | 103.41 | 100.79 |
-5 | 99.38 | 101.22 | 97.55 | 102.22 | 103.76 | 100.69 | 102.28 | 103.33 | 101.23 |
-4 | 99.93 | 101.40 | 98.47 | 101.71 | 103.04 | 100.39 | 102.32 | 103.30 | 101.34 |
-3 | 100.06 | 101.37 | 98.74 | 101.64 | 103.41 | 99.87 | 102.26 | 103.00 | 101.52 |
-2 | 100.13 | 101.10 | 99.15 | 101.23 | 102.30 | 100.15 | 101.54 | 102.11 | 100.96 |
-1 | 100.12 | 100.70 | 99.54 | 99.89 | 100.77 | 99.00 | 100.66 | 100.99 | 100.33 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 100.54 | 101.06 | 100.01 | 99.74 | 100.46 | 99.01 | 100.36 | 100.71 | 100.00 |
+2 | 101.12 | 102.22 | 100.01 | 100.00 | 100.81 | 99.19 | 100.81 | 101.28 | 100.33 |
+3 | 101.38 | 102.25 | 100.51 | 100.06 | 101.10 | 99.01 | 101.56 | 102.22 | 100.90 |
+4 | 102.07 | 103.31 | 100.83 | 100.84 | 102.03 | 99.65 | 102.18 | 102.99 | 101.36 |
+5 | 102.50 | 104.07 | 100.94 | 101.18 | 102.08 | 100.28 | 103.17 | 104.07 | 102.27 |
+6 | 103.33 | 105.34 | 101.31 | 101.48 | 102.48 | 100.48 | 103.98 | 104.98 | 102.98 |
+7 | 103.62 | 105.63 | 101.61 | 101.92 | 103.22 | 100.61 | 104.61 | 105.70 | 103.52 |
+8 | 103.99 | 106.09 | 101.89 | 102.60 | 103.79 | 101.40 | 105.23 | 106.41 | 104.05 |
+9 | 104.79 | 106.98 | 102.59 | 103.25 | 104.78 | 101.72 | 106.10 | 107.43 | 104.78 |
+10 | 105.31 | 107.75 | 102.87 | 103.83 | 105.60 | 102.06 | 106.93 | 108.33 | 105.53 |
+11 | 106.18 | 109.27 | 103.10 | 104.14 | 105.91 | 102.36 | 107.86 | 109.33 | 106.39 |
+12 | 107.18 | 110.86 | 103.49 | 104.23 | 106.20 | 102.27 | 109.22 | 111.02 | 107.42 |
+13 | 107.85 | 111.81 | 103.89 | 104.64 | 106.99 | 102.29 | 110.11 | 111.95 | 108.28 |
+14 | 108.34 | 112.47 | 104.21 | 103.95 | 106.04 | 101.85 | 111.04 | 113.11 | 108.97 |
+15 | 108.71 | 113.10 | 104.32 | 104.45 | 106.93 | 101.98 | 112.06 | 114.42 | 109.69 |
Thick lines are means. Thin lines denote two standard error bands.
Figure 7. EME Private Domestic Demand
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged (n=16) | Pegged + 2 s.e. | Pegged - 2 s.e. | Flexible (n=69) | Flexible + 2 s.e. | Flexible - 2 s.e. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 101.49 | 111.19 | 91.79 | 99.55 | 103.62 | 95.48 |
-11 | 102.44 | 112.92 | 91.95 | 101.02 | 105.17 | 96.87 |
-10 | 104.16 | 114.46 | 93.87 | 102.54 | 106.57 | 98.52 |
-9 | 105.77 | 116.08 | 95.45 | 103.70 | 107.57 | 99.83 |
-8 | 107.21 | 117.52 | 96.89 | 103.93 | 107.63 | 100.24 |
-7 | 108.59 | 118.39 | 98.80 | 105.03 | 108.63 | 101.43 |
-6 | 109.26 | 117.91 | 100.61 | 105.84 | 109.04 | 102.65 |
-5 | 110.72 | 118.36 | 103.09 | 107.10 | 110.15 | 104.06 |
-4 | 110.24 | 116.65 | 103.84 | 108.05 | 110.78 | 105.33 |
-3 | 107.37 | 111.78 | 102.96 | 106.92 | 109.05 | 104.80 |
-2 | 104.95 | 108.49 | 101.40 | 105.13 | 106.67 | 103.60 |
-1 | 102.39 | 104.38 | 100.41 | 102.30 | 103.17 | 101.42 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 100.47 | 102.09 | 98.86 | 101.12 | 101.70 | 100.53 |
+2 | 102.11 | 103.85 | 100.37 | 102.51 | 103.41 | 101.60 |
+3 | 103.24 | 105.68 | 100.81 | 104.17 | 105.23 | 103.11 |
+4 | 104.81 | 108.27 | 101.35 | 106.37 | 107.77 | 104.98 |
+5 | 106.44 | 110.39 | 102.50 | 108.03 | 109.55 | 106.52 |
+6 | 108.50 | 113.38 | 103.61 | 109.59 | 111.54 | 107.65 |
+7 | 109.93 | 115.23 | 104.63 | 110.97 | 113.14 | 108.79 |
+8 | 112.56 | 119.27 | 105.84 | 112.50 | 114.92 | 110.07 |
+9 | 114.86 | 122.25 | 107.47 | 113.68 | 116.33 | 111.04 |
+10 | 115.27 | 122.96 | 107.59 | 114.97 | 117.65 | 112.30 |
+11 | 117.39 | 126.20 | 108.58 | 116.29 | 119.25 | 113.32 |
+12 | 118.11 | 128.01 | 108.20 | 118.01 | 120.91 | 115.10 |
+13 | 119.12 | 130.35 | 107.88 | 118.75 | 122.03 | 115.47 |
+14 | 119.83 | 131.95 | 107.71 | 119.96 | 123.37 | 116.54 |
+15 | 122.65 | 136.22 | 109.07 | 121.39 | 125.06 | 117.72 |
Thick lines are means. Thin lines denote two standard error bands.
Figure 8. AE GDP
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged pre-GFC (n=12) | Euro area post-GFC (n=29) | Flexible pre-GFC (n=52) | Flexible post-GFC (n=14) |
---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 96.79 | 99.39 | 96.94 | 101.46 |
-11 | 97.18 | 100.16 | 97.46 | 101.90 |
-10 | 96.94 | 100.72 | 98.15 | 102.34 |
-9 | 98.04 | 101.21 | 98.72 | 102.46 |
-8 | 98.41 | 102.06 | 99.73 | 102.91 |
-7 | 98.81 | 102.10 | 100.14 | 103.26 |
-6 | 99.56 | 102.25 | 100.78 | 103.82 |
-5 | 100.11 | 102.54 | 100.99 | 103.33 |
-4 | 100.73 | 102.59 | 101.41 | 103.52 |
-3 | 101.16 | 102.36 | 101.25 | 103.14 |
-2 | 101.73 | 101.68 | 101.50 | 102.21 |
-1 | 101.14 | 100.66 | 100.83 | 101.02 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 101.64 | 100.54 | 101.04 | 100.95 |
+2 | 102.45 | 101.12 | 101.94 | 101.54 |
+3 | 102.35 | 101.51 | 102.72 | 102.39 |
+4 | 103.39 | 102.19 | 103.28 | 103.22 |
+5 | 103.74 | 102.67 | 104.07 | 103.99 |
+6 | 104.76 | 103.04 | 104.87 | 104.54 |
+7 | 104.80 | 103.69 | 106.03 | 104.70 |
+8 | 105.46 | 104.03 | 106.54 | 105.11 |
+9 | 106.20 | 104.59 | 107.11 | 105.49 |
+10 | 106.56 | 104.82 | 108.06 | 105.95 |
+11 | 107.04 | 105.76 | 108.70 | 106.67 |
+12 | 107.68 | 106.18 | 109.54 | 106.96 |
+13 | 108.14 | 106.54 | 110.24 | 107.28 |
+14 | 108.95 | 106.90 | 111.43 | 107.80 |
+15 | 109.59 | 107.07 | 112.17 | 108.30 |
Figure 9. EME GDP
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged pre-GFC (n=13) | Pegged post-GFC (n=6) | Flexible pre-GFC (n=57) | Flexible post-GFC (n=21) |
---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 96.32 | 103.46 | 98.38 | 95.42 |
-11 | 97.01 | 105.16 | 99.79 | 96.87 |
-10 | 97.79 | 107.78 | 100.49 | 97.91 |
-9 | 99.57 | 109.07 | 101.02 | 99.51 |
-8 | 101.77 | 110.23 | 101.91 | 101.25 |
-7 | 102.56 | 111.37 | 102.33 | 101.99 |
-6 | 103.50 | 110.80 | 103.11 | 103.24 |
-5 | 104.90 | 111.65 | 104.42 | 104.63 |
-4 | 104.39 | 111.41 | 105.36 | 105.63 |
-3 | 104.60 | 106.47 | 104.34 | 105.15 |
-2 | 103.99 | 103.67 | 103.81 | 104.05 |
-1 | 102.12 | 101.87 | 102.39 | 101.83 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 103.39 | 101.40 | 101.85 | 101.64 |
+2 | 104.55 | 101.72 | 103.40 | 103.16 |
+3 | 107.08 | 102.55 | 104.97 | 104.56 |
+4 | 109.41 | 104.32 | 106.48 | 106.29 |
+5 | 110.49 | 105.59 | 107.85 | 108.00 |
+6 | 111.64 | 107.07 | 108.74 | 108.99 |
+7 | 113.60 | 107.98 | 110.08 | 110.39 |
+8 | 115.59 | 109.76 | 111.27 | 111.60 |
+9 | 116.68 | 109.85 | 112.48 | 112.37 |
+10 | 118.06 | 110.42 | 113.60 | 113.26 |
+11 | 119.13 | 111.41 | 114.63 | 113.81 |
+12 | 119.94 | 111.23 | 115.76 | 115.79 |
+13 | 120.78 | 111.71 | 116.62 | 116.65 |
+14 | 122.84 | 112.08 | 118.03 | 117.56 |
+15 | 124.11 | 112.52 | 119.43 | 118.50 |
Figure 10. AE Exports
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged pre-GFC (n=10) | Euro area post-GFC (n=29) | Flexible pre-GFC (n=46) | Flexible post-GFC (n=14) |
---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 90.14 | 94.10 | 90.59 | 103.90 |
-11 | 90.70 | 96.36 | 91.88 | 103.54 |
-10 | 91.74 | 98.02 | 92.50 | 105.93 |
-9 | 92.21 | 99.67 | 93.24 | 103.58 |
-8 | 93.36 | 101.10 | 93.56 | 106.01 |
-7 | 94.68 | 102.13 | 95.14 | 107.13 |
-6 | 96.16 | 102.76 | 96.38 | 108.60 |
-5 | 97.33 | 104.23 | 97.27 | 110.26 |
-4 | 98.36 | 105.94 | 98.80 | 111.13 |
-3 | 98.87 | 105.87 | 99.03 | 111.13 |
-2 | 98.87 | 104.68 | 99.62 | 107.97 |
-1 | 99.52 | 101.10 | 99.25 | 103.31 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 100.53 | 101.07 | 101.76 | 102.37 |
+2 | 101.58 | 103.97 | 103.55 | 104.85 |
+3 | 104.67 | 104.94 | 105.01 | 106.86 |
+4 | 105.60 | 107.19 | 107.20 | 108.56 |
+5 | 107.74 | 109.17 | 109.41 | 109.80 |
+6 | 108.66 | 110.71 | 110.64 | 111.93 |
+7 | 110.38 | 111.16 | 113.12 | 113.75 |
+8 | 112.89 | 112.84 | 114.48 | 113.31 |
+9 | 114.46 | 114.49 | 115.28 | 112.85 |
+10 | 116.24 | 116.08 | 116.37 | 114.00 |
+11 | 116.25 | 118.51 | 117.81 | 115.46 |
+12 | 116.85 | 120.00 | 119.70 | 115.77 |
+13 | 117.52 | 121.53 | 121.39 | 116.86 |
+14 | 121.58 | 122.33 | 122.88 | 117.19 |
+15 | 123.16 | 122.93 | 124.75 | 117.91 |
Figure 11. EME Exports
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged pre-GFC (n=10) | Pegged post-GFC (n=6) | Flexible pre-GFC (n=48) | Flexible post-GFC (n=21) |
---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 96.06 | 105.44 | 87.16 | 98.19 |
-11 | 99.24 | 106.45 | 88.56 | 99.14 |
-10 | 96.24 | 110.11 | 89.75 | 103.25 |
-9 | 98.96 | 113.20 | 91.42 | 104.78 |
-8 | 101.85 | 111.84 | 91.92 | 107.79 |
-7 | 102.40 | 116.71 | 93.48 | 108.08 |
-6 | 104.48 | 119.37 | 96.55 | 110.64 |
-5 | 106.68 | 117.44 | 100.14 | 112.26 |
-4 | 107.51 | 115.15 | 102.02 | 113.76 |
-3 | 106.83 | 112.93 | 102.33 | 114.05 |
-2 | 108.49 | 106.88 | 101.53 | 110.83 |
-1 | 106.03 | 103.35 | 100.93 | 104.06 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 108.00 | 102.03 | 102.26 | 102.09 |
+2 | 111.20 | 105.14 | 103.35 | 104.96 |
+3 | 112.52 | 110.51 | 106.42 | 108.18 |
+4 | 116.23 | 115.68 | 108.46 | 111.52 |
+5 | 117.46 | 120.70 | 112.15 | 113.44 |
+6 | 120.13 | 123.19 | 113.76 | 114.64 |
+7 | 124.34 | 123.22 | 117.24 | 116.39 |
+8 | 127.35 | 128.27 | 118.96 | 119.78 |
+9 | 130.62 | 126.84 | 121.44 | 121.33 |
+10 | 131.98 | 129.22 | 123.10 | 123.00 |
+11 | 136.36 | 130.32 | 123.91 | 122.96 |
+12 | 137.96 | 132.09 | 125.78 | 125.12 |
+13 | 138.42 | 134.31 | 128.62 | 126.49 |
+14 | 141.08 | 134.12 | 131.80 | 126.67 |
+15 | 142.21 | 135.52 | 133.35 | 126.67 |
Figure 12. AE Private Domestic Demand
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged pre-GFC (n=10) | Euro area post-GFC (n=29) | Flexible pre-GFC (n=46) | Flexible post-GFC (n=14) |
---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 95.52 | 100.37 | 98.47 | 105.12 |
-11 | 95.83 | 100.59 | 98.66 | 105.87 |
-10 | 96.36 | 101.31 | 98.96 | 105.54 |
-9 | 96.63 | 101.61 | 99.84 | 105.91 |
-8 | 97.21 | 101.61 | 100.56 | 105.44 |
-7 | 97.71 | 102.00 | 100.89 | 105.25 |
-6 | 98.62 | 101.87 | 101.34 | 104.59 |
-5 | 99.38 | 102.22 | 101.97 | 103.30 |
-4 | 99.93 | 101.71 | 102.01 | 103.34 |
-3 | 100.06 | 101.64 | 101.93 | 103.34 |
-2 | 100.13 | 101.23 | 101.42 | 101.91 |
-1 | 100.12 | 99.89 | 100.67 | 100.63 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 100.54 | 99.74 | 100.12 | 101.15 |
+2 | 101.12 | 100.00 | 100.61 | 101.46 |
+3 | 101.38 | 100.06 | 101.43 | 101.97 |
+4 | 102.07 | 100.84 | 101.92 | 103.01 |
+5 | 102.50 | 101.18 | 102.96 | 103.89 |
+6 | 103.33 | 101.48 | 103.74 | 104.76 |
+7 | 103.62 | 101.92 | 104.53 | 104.89 |
+8 | 103.99 | 102.60 | 105.10 | 105.65 |
+9 | 104.79 | 103.25 | 106.11 | 106.07 |
+10 | 105.31 | 103.83 | 106.93 | 106.92 |
+11 | 106.18 | 104.14 | 107.84 | 107.91 |
+12 | 107.18 | 104.23 | 109.49 | 108.31 |
+13 | 107.85 | 104.64 | 110.57 | 108.62 |
+14 | 108.34 | 103.95 | 111.63 | 109.12 |
+15 | 108.71 | 104.45 | 112.64 | 110.00 |
Figure 13. EME Private Domestic Demand
Index: Trough = 100
Make Full ScreenQuarter Relative to Trough | Pegged pre-GFC (n=10) | Pegged post-GFC (n=6) | Flexible pre-GFC (n=48) | Flexible post-GFC (n=21) |
---|---|---|---|---|
-12 | 94.76 | 110.47 | 102.45 | 94.03 |
-11 | 95.00 | 112.35 | 103.84 | 95.52 |
-10 | 96.48 | 115.68 | 105.36 | 96.91 |
-9 | 98.82 | 116.19 | 106.13 | 98.73 |
-8 | 100.93 | 116.63 | 105.58 | 100.49 |
-7 | 102.23 | 119.20 | 106.59 | 101.75 |
-6 | 103.70 | 118.52 | 107.03 | 103.30 |
-5 | 106.07 | 118.47 | 107.84 | 105.49 |
-4 | 106.47 | 116.53 | 108.84 | 106.33 |
-3 | 105.36 | 110.71 | 107.27 | 106.15 |
-2 | 104.16 | 106.26 | 105.23 | 104.92 |
-1 | 102.66 | 101.94 | 102.35 | 102.16 |
0 (Trough) | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
+1 | 100.44 | 100.52 | 101.17 | 100.99 |
+2 | 102.57 | 101.35 | 102.73 | 102.01 |
+3 | 104.07 | 101.88 | 104.46 | 103.50 |
+4 | 106.13 | 102.61 | 106.69 | 105.65 |
+5 | 107.77 | 104.24 | 108.21 | 107.63 |
+6 | 109.87 | 106.21 | 109.52 | 109.75 |
+7 | 111.54 | 107.25 | 110.95 | 111.00 |
+8 | 114.37 | 109.53 | 112.59 | 112.28 |
+9 | 116.89 | 111.48 | 113.67 | 113.71 |
+10 | 117.76 | 111.14 | 115.07 | 114.75 |
+11 | 120.00 | 113.04 | 116.85 | 114.99 |
+12 | 120.94 | 113.38 | 117.98 | 118.08 |
+13 | 122.93 | 112.76 | 118.79 | 118.65 |
+14 | 124.43 | 112.17 | 119.89 | 120.11 |
+15 | 127.58 | 114.42 | 121.34 | 121.50 |