The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system.
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Cover Memo: Background Papers for Research Directors Regarding Inflation (PDF) - Did Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations? (PDF) (1/17/2018) - Metro Level Evidence on the Convexity of the U.S. Phillips Curve (PDF) (1/16/2018) - Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications (PDF) (1/16/2018) - The Death of the Phillips Curve? (PDF) (12/1/2017) - Has Inflation Surprised to the Downside? (PDF) (11/15/2017) - Dollar Depreciation and U.S. Inflation (PDF) (10/23/2017) - Upside risks to the inflation forecast (PDF) (10/25/2017) - What’s Down with Inflation? (PDF) (11/1/2017) - Has the Phillips Curve Died? New Evidence from Cross-Geographical Data (PDF) (9/13/2017) - Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation? (PDF) (8/1/2017) - A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long-Run Inflation Expectations (PDF) (10/1/2015) - Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation? Evidence from U.S. Cities (PDF) (5/1/2014)
Cover Memo: Background Papers Regarding Inflation Dynamics (PDF) - Explanations for Recent Low Inflation (PDF) - Inflation, Trends, and Long-Run Expectations: Perspectives from Forecasting Research (PDF) - What’s Up with Inflation? (PDF)
Cover Memo: Memo referenced in January Tealbook A footnote (PDF) - Implications of U.S. Yield Curve Flattening or Inversion for U.S. Banks (PDF)
DSGE Models Update (PDF) Supporting Documents for DSGE Models Update (PDF)
Cover Memo: Materials on SEP-implied estimates of r* (PDF) - The Neutral Rate and the Summary of Economic Projections - The Neutral Rate and the Summary of Economic Projections: An Update (PDF)
Cover Memo: Memo on IOER and the Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate (PDF) - The Effective Federal Funds Rate and the Target Range (PDF)
Cover Memo: Improvements to the Staff Judgmental Estimation of the Output Gap (PDF) - Improvements to the Staff Judgmental Estimation of the Output Gap (PDF)
Cover Memo: Measuring the uncertainty of judgmental estimates of unobserved variables (PDF) - Measuring the uncertainty of judgmental estimates of unobserved variables (PDF) (3/15/2018)
Cover Memo: Learning and misperceptions of policy strategies (PDF) - Learning and Misperception: Implications for Monetary Policy Strategies (PDF)
Cover Memo: Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Current Policy Toolkit (PDF) - Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Current Policy Toolkit (PDF)
Cover Memo: Developments in the Federal Funds Market Following the Technical Adjustment to IOR (PDF) - Developments in the Federal Funds Market Following the Technical Adjustment to IOR (PDF)
Cover Memo: An analysis of the recent dynamics in the federal funds market (PDF) - An analysis of the recent dynamics in the federal funds market (PDF)
Cover Memo: Comparing alternative measures of "core" inflation (PDF) - Comparing Two Measures of Core Inflation: PCE Excluding Food & Energy vs. the Trimmed Mean PCE Index (PDF) - Comparing Two Measures of Core Inflation: Some Additional Perspective (PDF)
Cover Memo: Trade Policy Uncertainty (PDF) - Trade Policy Uncertainty and the U.S. Economy (PDF)
Cover Memo: Background Materials and Plans for FOMC Discussion of Long-Run Monetary Policy Implementation Frameworks (PDF) - The Federal Reserve’s Long-Run Operating Regime (PDF) - The Federal Reserve’s Target Interest Rate (PDF) - Recent Developments in Reserve Markets and Understanding Reserve Demand (PDF) - Future Plans for Monetary Policy Implementation Frameworks at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (PDF)
Cover Memo: Corrected Version of "The Federal Reserve’s Long-Run Operating Regime" (PDF) - The Federal Reserve’s Long-Run Operating Regime (PDF)
Cover Memo: Effects of U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policies on EMEs (PDF) - Effects of U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Emerging Market Economies (PDF)
Additional Background Materials for FOMC Discussion of Long-Run Monetary Policy Implementation Frameworks (PDF)
Cover Memo: Background Memos for Discussion of Long Run Framework Issues (PDF) - Possible Plans for Transitioning to a Long-Run Operating Regime (PDF) - Detecting and Approaching the Long-Run Level of Reserves (PDF) - Interest Rate Control during the Transition to a Long-Run Operating Regime (PDF) - Possibilities for Reducing the Long-Run Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet (PDF) - SOMA Portfolio Composition (PDF)
DSGE Models Update (PDF)
Supporting Documents for DSGE Models Update (PDF)