Accessible Version
Part 3: Summary of Economic Projections
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2019-21 and over the longer run
Change in real GDP
Percent
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Unemployment rate
Percent
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
PCE inflation
Percent
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.
Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate
Number of participants with projected midpoint of target range or target level
| Midpoint of target range or target level (Percent) | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Longer run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.375 | ||||
| 3.250 | 2 | |||
| 3.125 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 3.000 | 2 | |||
| 2.875 | 1 | |||
| 2.750 | 3 | |||
| 2.625 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 2.500 | 8 | |||
| 2.375 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| 2.250 | ||||
| 2.125 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| 2.000 | ||||
| 1.875 | 7 | 7 | 5 | |
| 1.750 |
Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.