Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible Version

Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on December 17-18, 2013.

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2013-16 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2013 through 2016 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2008 through 2012.

Change in real GDP
Percent

Unemployment rate
Percent

PCE inflation
Percent

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.

Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy

Appropriate timing of policy firming

Appropriate pace of policy firming*
Number of participants with projected targets

Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2013-16 and over the longer run

Histograms, five panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2013-16 and over the longer run

Histograms, five panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2013-16 and over the longer run

Histograms, five panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2013-16

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' projections for the target federal funds rate, 2013-16 and over the longer run*

Histograms, five panels. 

Number of Participants

Note: The target federal funds rate is measured as the level of the target rate at the end of the calendar year or in the longer run.

*Data values in the sixth and eight columns were corrected on March 28, 2014. The graphical version of Figure 3.E was not affected.

Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections

Histograms, eight panels. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants

Uncertainty about Unemployment rate
Number of participants

Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants

Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

Risks to GDP Growth
Number of participants

Risks to Unemployment rate
Number of participants

Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants

Risks to Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

Note: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.