Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible Version

Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on September 20-21, 2016.

Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016–19 and over the longer run

Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections for years 2016 through 2019 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2011 through 2015.

Change in real GDP
Percent

Unemployment rate
Percent

PCE inflation
Percent

Core PCE inflation
Percent

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.

Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate

Appropriate pace of policy firming
Number of participants with projected targets

Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.

Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2016–19 and over the longer run

Histograms, five panels.

Number of Participants

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2016–19 and over the longer run

Histograms, five panels.

Number of Participants

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2016–19 and over the longer run

Histograms, five panels.

Number of Participants

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.

Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2016–19

Histograms, four panels.

Number of Participants

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.

Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' judgments of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate, 2016–19 and over the longer run

Histograms, five panels.

Number of Participants

Note: The midpoints of the target ranges for the federal funds rate and the target levels for the federal funds rate are measured at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate in conjunction with the June 14–15, 2016, meeting. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate in conjunction with the September 20–21, 2016, meeting.

Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections

Histograms, eight panels.

Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants

Uncertainty about Unemployment rate
Number of participants

Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants

Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

Risks to GDP Growth
Number of participants

Risks to Unemployment rate
Number of participants

Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants

Risks to Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

Note: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.