Accessible Version
Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on September 15-16, 2020
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2020–23 and over the longer run
Change in real GDP
Percent
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | -3.0 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | -3.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | -4.0 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | -5.5 | .0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Unemployment rate
Percent
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 8.0 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 7.6 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 6.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
PCE inflation
Percent
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | .2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Core PCE inflation
Percent
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | - | - | - | - |
| Upper End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Upper End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Median | - | - | - | - | - | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Lower End of Central Tendency | - | - | - | - | - | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Lower End of Range | - | - | - | - | - | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Note. Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.
Figure 2. FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate
Number of participants with projected midpoint of target range or target level
| Midpoint of target range or target level (Percent) | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Longer run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.000 | 2 | ||||
| 2.875 | |||||
| 2.750 | 1 | ||||
| 2.625 | |||||
| 2.500 | 8 | ||||
| 2.375 | 1 | ||||
| 2.250 | 3 | ||||
| 2.125 | |||||
| 2.000 | 1 | ||||
| 1.875 | |||||
| 1.750 | |||||
| 1.625 | |||||
| 1.500 | |||||
| 1.375 | 1 | ||||
| 1.250 | |||||
| 1.125 | |||||
| 1.000 | |||||
| 0.875 | |||||
| 0.750 | |||||
| 0.625 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 0.500 | |||||
| 0.375 | 2 | ||||
| 0.250 | |||||
| 0.125 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 13 |
Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.
Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2020-23 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of participants
| Percent Range | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Longer Run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
|
| -10.0 - -9.9 | 1 | |||||||||
| -9.8 - -9.7 | ||||||||||
| -9.6 - -9.5 | 1 | |||||||||
| -9.4 - -9.3 | ||||||||||
| -9.2 - -9.1 | ||||||||||
| -9.0 - -8.9 | ||||||||||
| -8.8 - -8.7 | ||||||||||
| -8.6 - -8.5 | ||||||||||
| -8.4 - -8.3 | ||||||||||
| -8.2 - -8.1 | 1 | |||||||||
| -8.0 - -7.9 | ||||||||||
| -7.8 - -7.7 | ||||||||||
| -7.6 - -7.5 | 1 | |||||||||
| -7.4 - -7.3 | ||||||||||
| -7.2 - -7.1 | 1 | |||||||||
| -7.0 - -6.9 | 3 | |||||||||
| -6.8 - -6.7 | ||||||||||
| -6.6 - -6.5 | 1 | |||||||||
| -6.4 - -6.3 | ||||||||||
| -6.2 - -6.1 | ||||||||||
| -6.0 - -5.9 | 3 | |||||||||
| -5.8 - -5.7 | ||||||||||
| -5.6 - -5.5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| -5.4 - -5.3 | ||||||||||
| -5.2 - -5.1 | ||||||||||
| -5.0 - -4.9 | 1 | |||||||||
| -4.8 - -4.7 | 1 | |||||||||
| -4.6 - -4.5 | ||||||||||
| -4.4 - -4.3 | 1 | |||||||||
| -4.2 - -4.1 | 1 | |||||||||
| -4.0 - -3.9 | 5 | |||||||||
| -3.8 - -3.7 | 2 | |||||||||
| -3.6 - -3.5 | 2 | |||||||||
| -3.4 - -3.3 | 1 | |||||||||
| -3.2 - -3.1 | ||||||||||
| -3.0 - -2.9 | 2 | |||||||||
| -2.8 - -2.7 | 2 | |||||||||
| -2.6 - -2.5 | ||||||||||
| -2.4 - -2.3 | ||||||||||
| -2.2 - -2.1 | ||||||||||
| -2.0 - -1.9 | ||||||||||
| -1.8 - -1.7 | ||||||||||
| -1.6 - -1.5 | ||||||||||
| -1.4 - -1.3 | ||||||||||
| -1.2 - -1.1 | ||||||||||
| -1.0 - -0.9 | 1 | |||||||||
| -0.8 - -0.7 | ||||||||||
| -0.6 - -0.5 | ||||||||||
| -0.4 - -0.3 | ||||||||||
| -0.2 - -0.1 | ||||||||||
| 0.0 - 0.1 | 1 | |||||||||
| 0.2 - 0.3 | ||||||||||
| 0.4 - 0.5 | ||||||||||
| 0.6 - 0.7 | ||||||||||
| 0.8 - 0.9 | ||||||||||
| 1.0 - 1.1 | 1 | |||||||||
| 1.2 - 1.3 | ||||||||||
| 1.4 - 1.5 | ||||||||||
| 1.6 - 1.7 | 4 | 4 | ||||||||
| 1.8 - 1.9 | 7 | 7 | ||||||||
| 2.0 - 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | ||||
| 2.2 - 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2.4 - 2.5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |||||||
| 2.6 - 2.7 | 3 | |||||||||
| 2.8 - 2.9 | 1 | |||||||||
| 3.0 - 3.1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||||
| 3.2 - 3.3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||
| 3.4 - 3.5 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
| 3.6 - 3.7 | 1 | |||||||||
| 3.8 - 3.9 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| 4.0 - 4.1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| 4.2 - 4.3 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||
| 4.4 - 4.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 4.6 - 4.7 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
| 4.8 - 4.9 | ||||||||||
| 5.0 - 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| 5.2 - 5.3 | ||||||||||
| 5.4 - 5.5 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 5.6 - 5.7 | 1 | |||||||||
| 5.8 - 5.9 | ||||||||||
| 6.0 - 6.1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 6.2 - 6.3 | 1 | |||||||||
| 6.4 - 6.5 | 1 | |||||||||
| 6.6 - 6.7 | ||||||||||
| 6.8 - 6.9 | ||||||||||
| 7.0 - 7.1 | 1 | |||||||||
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2020-23 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of participants
| Percent Range | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Longer Run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
|
| 3.4 - 3.5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| 3.6 - 3.7 | 2 | |||||||||
| 3.8 - 3.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | ||||||
| 4.0 - 4.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | ||||
| 4.2 - 4.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | |||||
| 4.4 - 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 4.6 - 4.7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 4.8 - 4.9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| 5.0 - 5.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |||||||
| 5.2 - 5.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 5.4 - 5.5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| 5.6 - 5.7 | 1 | |||||||||
| 5.8 - 5.9 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 6.0 - 6.1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6.2 - 6.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 6.4 - 6.5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| 6.6 - 6.7 | 1 | |||||||||
| 6.8 - 6.9 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 7.0 - 7.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| 7.2 - 7.3 | 1 | |||||||||
| 7.4 - 7.5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| 7.6 - 7.7 | 4 | |||||||||
| 7.8 - 7.9 | 2 | |||||||||
| 8.0 - 8.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 8.2 - 8.3 | ||||||||||
| 8.4 - 8.5 | ||||||||||
| 8.6 - 8.7 | ||||||||||
| 8.8 - 8.9 | 1 | |||||||||
| 9.0 - 9.1 | 6 | 1 | ||||||||
| 9.2 - 9.3 | 2 | |||||||||
| 9.4 - 9.5 | 2 | |||||||||
| 9.6 - 9.7 | 1 | |||||||||
| 9.8 - 9.9 | ||||||||||
| 10.0 - 10.1 | 2 | |||||||||
| 10.2 - 10.3 | ||||||||||
| 10.4 - 10.5 | ||||||||||
| 10.6 - 10.7 | ||||||||||
| 10.8 - 10.9 | ||||||||||
| 11.0 - 11.1 | 1 | |||||||||
| 11.2 - 11.3 | ||||||||||
| 11.4 - 11.5 | ||||||||||
| 11.6 - 11.7 | ||||||||||
| 11.8 - 11.9 | ||||||||||
| 12.0 - 12.1 | 1 | |||||||||
| 12.2 - 12.3 | ||||||||||
| 12.4 - 12.5 | ||||||||||
| 12.6 - 12.7 | ||||||||||
| 12.8 - 12.9 | ||||||||||
| 13.0 - 13.1 | ||||||||||
| 13.2 - 13.3 | ||||||||||
| 13.4 - 13.5 | ||||||||||
| 13.6 - 13.7 | ||||||||||
| 13.8 - 13.9 | ||||||||||
| 14.0 - 14.1 | 1 | |||||||||
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2020-23 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of participants
| Percent Range | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Longer Run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
|
| 0.5 - 0.6 | 4 | |||||||||
| 0.7 - 0.8 | 8 | |||||||||
| 0.9 - 1.0 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||
| 1.1 - 1.2 | 1 | 10 | 1 | |||||||
| 1.3 - 1.4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| 1.5 - 1.6 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| 1.7 - 1.8 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 2 | |||||
| 1.9 - 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 | |||
| 2.1 - 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| 2.3 - 2.4 | 1 | |||||||||
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2020-23
Histograms, four panels.
Number of participants
| Percent Range | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
|
| 0.7 - 0.8 | 1 | |||||||
| 0.9 - 1.0 | 9 | |||||||
| 1.1 - 1.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1.3 - 1.4 | 1 | 7 | 4 | |||||
| 1.5 - 1.6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1.7 - 1.8 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1.9 - 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 | |||
| 2.1 - 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 2.3 - 2.4 | 1 | |||||||
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' judgments of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate, 2020-23 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels.
Number of participants
| Percent Range | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Longer Run | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections | June projections |
September projections |
June projections |
September projections |
|
| 0.13 - 0.37 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 13 | |||
| 0.38 - 0.62 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||
| 0.63 - 0.87 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 0.88 - 1.12 | ||||||||||
| 1.13 - 1.37 | 1 | |||||||||
| 1.38 - 1.62 | 1 | |||||||||
| 1.63 - 1.87 | ||||||||||
| 1.88 - 2.12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 2.13 - 2.37 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
| 2.38 - 2.62 | 9 | 9 | ||||||||
| 2.63 - 2.87 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 2.88 - 3.12 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections
FOMC participants' assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projections
Histograms, eight panels.
Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly Similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| September projections | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| June projections | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Risks to GDP growth
Number of participants
| Weighted to Downside | Broadly Balanced | Weighted to Upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| September projections | 12 | 4 | 1 |
| June projections | 13 | 3 | 1 |
Uncertainty about the unemployment rate
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly Similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| September projections | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| June projections | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Risks to the unemployment rate
Number of participants
| Weighted to Downside | Broadly Balanced | Weighted to Upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| September projections | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| June projections | 1 | 3 | 13 |
Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly Similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| September projections | 0 | 1 | 16 |
| June projections | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Weighted to Downside | Broadly Balanced | Weighted to Upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| September projections | 11 | 5 | 1 |
| June projections | 13 | 4 | 0 |
Uncertainty about core PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Lower | Broadly Similar | Higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| September projections | 0 | 1 | 16 |
| June projections | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Risks to core PCE inflation
Number of participants
| Weighted to Downside | Broadly Balanced | Weighted to Upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| September projections | 11 | 5 | 1 |
| June projections | 13 | 4 | 0 |