December 11, 2020
Federal Reserve releases illustrative examples of new charts that will be included in the Federal Open Market Committee’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
For release at 11:00 a.m. EST
The Federal Reserve on Friday released illustrative examples of new charts that will be included in the Federal Open Market Committee's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The new charts show FOMC participants' judgments of uncertainty and risks related to their projections of the change in real gross domestic product, the unemployment rate, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, and core PCE inflation.
The first new illustrative chart shows the proportion of participants who indicated that the uncertainty surrounding their projections for each variable was higher or lower relative to the average level of uncertainty over the past 20 years. The second new illustrative chart shows the proportion of participants who saw the risks to their projections as weighted toward the upside or downside.
As indicated in the minutes of the Committee's November 2020 meeting, the charts will be included in the SEP beginning with the December 15-16, 2020, meeting. Additionally, beginning with the December 16 release, all SEP exhibits will be published at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on the second day of each March, June, September, and December FOMC meeting. Previously, many of the SEP exhibits were released three weeks later, with the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes. The written portion of the SEP that described the exhibits, which has also been released with the meeting minutes, is being discontinued.
The attached examples are based on previously published SEP data through September 2020.
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