Accessible Version
Accessible Version
U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Transmission
Philip N. Jefferson
Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board
NABE Annual Meetings, Oct. 9, 2023
Disclaimer: The views I will express today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or the Federal Reserve System.
Roadmap of Talk
- Outlook on the U.S. economy
- Risks facing the U.S. economy
- Transmission of monetary policy
- Considerations for monetary policy
Figure 1: PCE and Core PCE Inflation
Monthly (percent)
| Period | Headline PCE | Core PCE |
|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2020 | 1.697918492 | 1.552324112 |
| 2/1/2020 | 1.642005794 | 1.65599899 |
| 3/1/2020 | 1.146949231 | 1.49152345 |
| 4/1/2020 | 0.411140455 | 0.932470903 |
| 5/1/2020 | 0.448629938 | 0.950851704 |
| 6/1/2020 | 0.705525326 | 0.908423918 |
| 7/1/2020 | 0.900509613 | 1.163867086 |
| 8/1/2020 | 1.165337012 | 1.365943879 |
| 9/1/2020 | 1.247180832 | 1.444811289 |
| 10/1/2020 | 1.118688739 | 1.366676918 |
| 11/1/2020 | 1.153879439 | 1.427939961 |
| 12/1/2020 | 1.366487026 | 1.553524679 |
| 1/1/2021 | 1.615003159 | 1.715242881 |
| 2/1/2021 | 1.88520435 | 1.753229382 |
| 3/1/2021 | 2.713022122 | 2.255560018 |
| 4/1/2021 | 3.724613665 | 3.220545488 |
| 5/1/2021 | 4.155356627 | 3.64397685 |
| 6/1/2021 | 4.372402806 | 3.949218862 |
| 7/1/2021 | 4.533149673 | 4.009989229 |
| 8/1/2021 | 4.644842613 | 4.018854118 |
| 9/1/2021 | 4.805422283 | 4.07439036 |
| 10/1/2021 | 5.406947985 | 4.500805916 |
| 11/1/2021 | 5.985912146 | 4.951114143 |
| 12/1/2021 | 6.180290804 | 5.238009802 |
| 1/1/2022 | 6.297046493 | 5.369493822 |
| 2/1/2022 | 6.547004375 | 5.574700232 |
| 3/1/2022 | 6.892944539 | 5.549581561 |
| 4/1/2022 | 6.61979157 | 5.254939867 |
| 5/1/2022 | 6.689955363 | 5.074560633 |
| 6/1/2022 | 7.116914165 | 5.192582026 |
| 7/1/2022 | 6.616947291 | 4.961510264 |
| 8/1/2022 | 6.515400036 | 5.20747684 |
| 9/1/2022 | 6.556096498 | 5.47208344 |
| 10/1/2022 | 6.347917118 | 5.325857173 |
| 11/1/2022 | 5.928570147 | 5.090360902 |
| 12/1/2022 | 5.441910192 | 4.865136479 |
| 1/1/2023 | 5.479087823 | 4.901181535 |
| 2/1/2023 | 5.189610207 | 4.844533779 |
| 3/1/2023 | 4.442269717 | 4.782955351 |
| 4/1/2023 | 4.446419082 | 4.762998022 |
| 5/1/2023 | 3.962025536 | 4.687829943 |
| 6/1/2023 | 3.198420533 | 4.280077342 |
| 7/1/2023 | 3.404828729 | 4.291302146 |
| 8/1/2023 | 3.475917529 | 3.876413276 |
Note: Percent change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index from 12 months ago. Core refers to the price index excluding food and energy. The gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession period extends from February 2020 through April 2020.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE Price Index.
Figure 2: Select Components of Core PCE Inflation
Monthly (percent)
| Period | Housing services | Goods ex. food and energy | Services ex. housing and energy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/31/2014 | 2.577490754 | -1.050073766 | 2.205416967 |
| 2/28/2014 | 2.583557104 | -1.045649403 | 2.091389358 |
| 3/31/2014 | 2.669039146 | -0.946317297 | 2.120928817 |
| 4/30/2014 | 2.712701774 | -0.830984688 | 2.272727273 |
| 5/31/2014 | 2.732085246 | -0.749517613 | 2.323765737 |
| 6/30/2014 | 2.746947521 | -0.684499859 | 2.185272131 |
| 7/31/2014 | 2.852744068 | -0.642952734 | 2.214663643 |
| 8/31/2014 | 2.796563287 | -0.766923279 | 2.163881402 |
| 9/30/2014 | 2.84777317 | -0.640060607 | 2.121476315 |
| 10/31/2014 | 2.867681789 | -0.583971394 | 1.943352874 |
| 11/30/2014 | 2.889933473 | -0.83592535 | 1.91213806 |
| 12/31/2014 | 2.799033427 | -0.834615609 | 1.87551459 |
| 1/31/2015 | 2.848722986 | -1.031008205 | 1.694444741 |
| 2/28/2015 | 2.925057922 | -0.775693001 | 1.677247266 |
| 3/31/2015 | 2.936275163 | -0.59490085 | 1.59784541 |
| 4/30/2015 | 2.971328509 | -0.510777104 | 1.573188868 |
| 5/31/2015 | 2.983424192 | -0.504103165 | 1.48467636 |
| 6/30/2015 | 3.098311817 | -0.734124079 | 1.565791842 |
| 7/31/2015 | 3.137932553 | -0.893075009 | 1.494807788 |
| 8/31/2015 | 3.165293795 | -0.826656492 | 1.532340619 |
| 9/30/2015 | 3.220363126 | -0.780058651 | 1.513522629 |
| 10/31/2015 | 3.228310303 | -0.974441675 | 1.502927918 |
| 11/30/2015 | 3.18166454 | -0.764555969 | 1.456861756 |
| 12/31/2015 | 3.232125367 | -0.703167199 | 1.406454999 |
| 1/31/2016 | 3.247373448 | -0.544505711 | 1.702958654 |
| 2/29/2016 | 3.221791736 | -0.548704938 | 1.81642654 |
| 3/31/2016 | 3.190329718 | -0.720315248 | 1.890192791 |
| 4/30/2016 | 3.208481326 | -0.607637185 | 1.943087815 |
| 5/31/2016 | 3.309316984 | -0.775696163 | 2.071738109 |
| 6/30/2016 | 3.284530919 | -0.844782314 | 2.078468979 |
| 7/31/2016 | 3.281505117 | -0.845972031 | 2.160789375 |
| 8/31/2016 | 3.318357961 | -0.587921952 | 2.204575456 |
| 9/30/2016 | 3.386339993 | -0.583239739 | 2.161679507 |
| 10/31/2016 | 3.468361133 | -0.507313607 | 2.273411154 |
| 11/30/2016 | 3.584449071 | -0.867246148 | 2.284453285 |
| 12/31/2016 | 3.640101202 | -0.89902976 | 2.370232366 |
| 1/31/2017 | 3.611975444 | -0.533626382 | 2.381591444 |
| 2/28/2017 | 3.619245327 | -0.581395349 | 2.406521829 |
| 3/31/2017 | 3.598958279 | -0.591915113 | 2.087532393 |
| 4/30/2017 | 3.521706938 | -0.926410603 | 2.185086019 |
| 5/31/2017 | 3.425732489 | -0.961861975 | 2.067540333 |
| 6/30/2017 | 3.409079134 | -0.786519083 | 2.049423057 |
| 7/31/2017 | 3.385960199 | -0.659508745 | 1.872605754 |
| 8/31/2017 | 3.453925337 | -0.941673778 | 1.853961151 |
| 9/30/2017 | 3.36577953 | -1.267466059 | 2.00414651 |
| 10/31/2017 | 3.361310133 | -0.990040078 | 2.086926526 |
| 11/30/2017 | 3.299225692 | -0.874833104 | 2.064278262 |
| 12/31/2017 | 3.350523329 | -0.837325349 | 2.089884232 |
| 1/31/2018 | 3.377500913 | -0.756459768 | 2.137635493 |
| 2/28/2018 | 3.293501027 | -0.82149819 | 2.214103841 |
| 3/31/2018 | 3.37196624 | -0.666135617 | 2.581743458 |
| 4/30/2018 | 3.474432848 | -0.374826792 | 2.381310926 |
| 5/31/2018 | 3.487121768 | -0.135888571 | 2.443620327 |
| 6/30/2018 | 3.429962825 | -0.357889054 | 2.476560233 |
| 7/31/2018 | 3.465955086 | -0.452923003 | 2.611261126 |
| 8/31/2018 | 3.420284659 | -0.671147663 | 2.54610446 |
| 9/30/2018 | 3.367438164 | -0.490811093 | 2.591463415 |
| 10/31/2018 | 3.336172067 | -0.552071018 | 2.473589537 |
| 11/30/2018 | 3.392358059 | -0.224156648 | 2.554458393 |
| 12/31/2018 | 3.281269991 | -0.25764636 | 2.643307055 |
| 1/31/2019 | 3.262245689 | -0.30489028 | 2.353521892 |
| 2/28/2019 | 3.369707893 | -0.522452418 | 2.216358319 |
| 3/31/2019 | 3.407492773 | -0.702679404 | 2.054263185 |
| 4/30/2019 | 3.446362335 | -0.917578074 | 2.201390455 |
| 5/31/2019 | 3.427883355 | -0.862465731 | 2.057568879 |
| 6/30/2019 | 3.505134664 | -0.429404152 | 2.038823575 |
| 7/31/2019 | 3.464796623 | -0.516250854 | 2.060408768 |
| 8/31/2019 | 3.415996533 | -0.076644581 | 2.048625649 |
| 9/30/2019 | 3.4758793 | -0.216860665 | 1.901543183 |
| 10/31/2019 | 3.38466551 | -0.315349353 | 1.963883932 |
| 11/30/2019 | 3.316394758 | -0.514804405 | 1.777644452 |
| 12/31/2019 | 3.332348653 | -0.527723122 | 1.833251319 |
| 1/31/2020 | 3.393938242 | -0.8017786 | 2.01680186 |
| 2/29/2020 | 3.337566097 | -0.443543916 | 2.06523205 |
| 3/31/2020 | 3.264041707 | -0.624873814 | 1.882054095 |
| 4/30/2020 | 3.106618858 | -1.259341547 | 1.216587032 |
| 5/31/2020 | 3.09363528 | -1.564329256 | 1.39966063 |
| 6/30/2020 | 2.86414946 | -1.700841352 | 1.472727273 |
| 7/31/2020 | 2.815691693 | -0.958101969 | 1.603399704 |
| 8/31/2020 | 2.695982567 | -0.419850025 | 1.742250041 |
| 9/30/2020 | 2.50192706 | -0.462967643 | 1.98423666 |
| 10/31/2020 | 2.505445613 | -0.540720826 | 1.886110503 |
| 11/30/2020 | 2.296512703 | -0.187341772 | 1.894918993 |
| 12/31/2020 | 2.189269444 | 0.080136333 | 2.053230498 |
| 1/31/2021 | 2.03147406 | 0.34378898 | 2.273801645 |
| 2/28/2021 | 2.039468858 | 0.017213272 | 2.502878499 |
| 3/31/2021 | 2.006640021 | 0.509950122 | 3.201586627 |
| 4/30/2021 | 2.033626025 | 2.415799863 | 4.023925531 |
| 5/31/2021 | 2.093730647 | 3.663337913 | 4.160875854 |
| 6/30/2021 | 2.299404903 | 4.299025185 | 4.325766935 |
| 7/31/2021 | 2.366294379 | 4.004036656 | 4.548188808 |
| 8/31/2021 | 2.506415662 | 3.927351597 | 4.553937336 |
| 9/30/2021 | 2.840420038 | 4.176949091 | 4.419254455 |
| 10/31/2021 | 3.076283141 | 5.225238042 | 4.60978342 |
| 11/30/2021 | 3.451485793 | 5.590219652 | 5.123683155 |
| 12/31/2021 | 3.708082157 | 6.225357537 | 5.245664203 |
| 1/31/2022 | 4.01989225 | 6.918925475 | 5.05015022 |
| 2/28/2022 | 4.265223956 | 7.642390006 | 4.992173833 |
| 3/31/2022 | 4.493817862 | 7.464904036 | 4.945321437 |
| 4/30/2022 | 4.768038932 | 6.317471414 | 4.891606448 |
| 5/31/2022 | 5.08996191 | 5.679132009 | 4.780706532 |
| 6/30/2022 | 5.510340227 | 5.664809191 | 4.868656555 |
| 7/31/2022 | 5.900510928 | 5.431789001 | 4.451017234 |
| 8/31/2022 | 6.356100884 | 5.547970588 | 4.694633551 |
| 9/30/2022 | 6.761757088 | 5.711528338 | 4.965186418 |
| 10/31/2022 | 6.993595929 | 4.61713778 | 5.157150761 |
| 11/30/2022 | 7.273712074 | 3.842421331 | 5.020415409 |
| 12/31/2022 | 7.692240757 | 3.108689637 | 4.84482789 |
| 1/31/2023 | 7.924822449 | 2.589987901 | 5.096006618 |
| 2/28/2023 | 8.169421986 | 2.203579524 | 5.112599972 |
| 3/31/2023 | 8.204696979 | 2.451824056 | 4.867499717 |
| 4/30/2023 | 8.267017316 | 2.454419928 | 4.807700661 |
| 5/31/2023 | 8.186980621 | 2.447379012 | 4.701184175 |
| 6/30/2023 | 7.931208902 | 1.657443147 | 4.431438127 |
| 7/31/2023 | 7.740308909 | 1.114612674 | 4.763134339 |
| 8/31/2023 | 7.419360205 | 0.473062246 | 4.429289857 |
Note: Percent change in select categories of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index from 12 months ago. The gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession period extends from February 2020 through April 2020.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE Price Index.
Figure 3: Job Opening Counts Index
Weekly (2019 = 100)
| Period | Indexed Job Openings |
|---|---|
| 1/5/2019 | 104.4447042 |
| 1/12/2019 | 104.542238 |
| 1/19/2019 | 104.6397717 |
| 1/26/2019 | 104.7373055 |
| 2/2/2019 | 103.1872156 |
| 2/9/2019 | 101.6371258 |
| 2/16/2019 | 100.087036 |
| 2/23/2019 | 98.53694615 |
| 3/2/2019 | 99.27541591 |
| 3/9/2019 | 100.0138857 |
| 3/16/2019 | 100.7523554 |
| 3/23/2019 | 101.4908252 |
| 3/30/2019 | 102.229295 |
| 4/6/2019 | 101.7207262 |
| 4/13/2019 | 101.2121574 |
| 4/20/2019 | 100.7035886 |
| 4/27/2019 | 100.1950198 |
| 5/4/2019 | 100.6130215 |
| 5/11/2019 | 101.0310233 |
| 5/18/2019 | 101.449025 |
| 5/25/2019 | 101.8670268 |
| 6/1/2019 | 101.3877181 |
| 6/8/2019 | 100.9084094 |
| 6/15/2019 | 100.4291007 |
| 6/22/2019 | 99.94979207 |
| 6/29/2019 | 99.4704834 |
| 7/6/2019 | 99.16394878 |
| 7/13/2019 | 98.85741416 |
| 7/20/2019 | 98.55087955 |
| 7/27/2019 | 98.24434493 |
| 8/3/2019 | 98.58153301 |
| 8/10/2019 | 98.91872109 |
| 8/17/2019 | 99.25590917 |
| 8/24/2019 | 99.59309725 |
| 8/31/2019 | 99.93028532 |
| 9/7/2019 | 99.88848515 |
| 9/14/2019 | 99.84668497 |
| 9/21/2019 | 99.8048848 |
| 9/28/2019 | 99.76308462 |
| 10/5/2019 | 100.337837 |
| 10/12/2019 | 100.9125894 |
| 10/19/2019 | 101.4873418 |
| 10/26/2019 | 102.0620943 |
| 11/2/2019 | 100.9307028 |
| 11/9/2019 | 99.79931144 |
| 11/16/2019 | 98.66792004 |
| 11/23/2019 | 97.53652863 |
| 11/30/2019 | 96.40513722 |
| 12/7/2019 | 95.67363416 |
| 12/14/2019 | 94.94213109 |
| 12/21/2019 | 94.21062803 |
| 12/28/2019 | 93.47912496 |
| 1/4/2020 | 95.13371523 |
| 1/11/2020 | 96.78830549 |
| 1/18/2020 | 98.44289576 |
| 1/25/2020 | 100.097486 |
| 2/1/2020 | 99.57080382 |
| 2/8/2020 | 99.04412161 |
| 2/15/2020 | 98.51743941 |
| 2/22/2020 | 97.9907572 |
| 2/29/2020 | 97.46407499 |
| 3/7/2020 | 93.28057413 |
| 3/14/2020 | 89.09707327 |
| 3/21/2020 | 84.91357241 |
| 3/28/2020 | 80.73007155 |
| 4/4/2020 | 76.87052205 |
| 4/11/2020 | 73.01097255 |
| 4/18/2020 | 69.15142304 |
| 4/25/2020 | 65.29187354 |
| 5/2/2020 | 67.78595066 |
| 5/9/2020 | 70.28002777 |
| 5/16/2020 | 72.77410489 |
| 5/23/2020 | 75.268182 |
| 5/30/2020 | 77.76225912 |
| 6/6/2020 | 79.6363003 |
| 6/13/2020 | 81.51034149 |
| 6/20/2020 | 83.38438267 |
| 6/27/2020 | 85.25842386 |
| 7/4/2020 | 86.63434629 |
| 7/11/2020 | 88.01026872 |
| 7/18/2020 | 89.38619115 |
| 7/25/2020 | 90.76211358 |
| 8/1/2020 | 90.33296512 |
| 8/8/2020 | 89.90381665 |
| 8/15/2020 | 89.47466819 |
| 8/22/2020 | 89.04551972 |
| 8/29/2020 | 88.61637126 |
| 9/5/2020 | 89.14584014 |
| 9/12/2020 | 89.67530903 |
| 9/19/2020 | 90.20477791 |
| 9/26/2020 | 90.7342468 |
| 10/3/2020 | 91.59254373 |
| 10/10/2020 | 92.45084066 |
| 10/17/2020 | 93.30913759 |
| 10/24/2020 | 94.16743451 |
| 10/31/2020 | 95.02573144 |
| 11/7/2020 | 95.21731558 |
| 11/14/2020 | 95.40889972 |
| 11/21/2020 | 95.60048385 |
| 11/28/2020 | 95.79206799 |
| 12/5/2020 | 95.71891768 |
| 12/12/2020 | 95.64576737 |
| 12/19/2020 | 95.57261707 |
| 12/26/2020 | 95.49946676 |
| 1/2/2021 | 96.39399051 |
| 1/9/2021 | 97.28851426 |
| 1/16/2021 | 98.183038 |
| 1/23/2021 | 99.07756175 |
| 1/30/2021 | 99.9720855 |
| 2/6/2021 | 102.009844 |
| 2/13/2021 | 104.0476026 |
| 2/20/2021 | 106.0853611 |
| 2/27/2021 | 108.1231196 |
| 3/6/2021 | 110.348979 |
| 3/13/2021 | 112.5748383 |
| 3/20/2021 | 114.8006976 |
| 3/27/2021 | 117.0265569 |
| 4/3/2021 | 120.1232533 |
| 4/10/2021 | 123.2199496 |
| 4/17/2021 | 126.3166459 |
| 4/24/2021 | 129.4133422 |
| 5/1/2021 | 130.9515886 |
| 5/8/2021 | 132.4898351 |
| 5/15/2021 | 134.0280815 |
| 5/22/2021 | 135.566328 |
| 5/29/2021 | 137.1045744 |
| 6/5/2021 | 137.9022611 |
| 6/12/2021 | 138.6999477 |
| 6/19/2021 | 139.4976344 |
| 6/26/2021 | 140.2953211 |
| 7/3/2021 | 142.5608906 |
| 7/10/2021 | 144.8264601 |
| 7/17/2021 | 147.0920296 |
| 7/24/2021 | 149.3575991 |
| 7/31/2021 | 151.6231686 |
| 8/7/2021 | 151.8948697 |
| 8/14/2021 | 152.1665708 |
| 8/21/2021 | 152.438272 |
| 8/28/2021 | 152.7099731 |
| 9/4/2021 | 152.438272 |
| 9/11/2021 | 152.1665708 |
| 9/18/2021 | 151.8948697 |
| 9/25/2021 | 151.6231686 |
| 10/2/2021 | 152.9774942 |
| 10/9/2021 | 154.3318199 |
| 10/16/2021 | 155.6861456 |
| 10/23/2021 | 157.0404713 |
| 10/30/2021 | 158.3947969 |
| 11/6/2021 | 157.9210616 |
| 11/13/2021 | 157.4473263 |
| 11/20/2021 | 156.973591 |
| 11/27/2021 | 156.4998557 |
| 12/4/2021 | 158.5689643 |
| 12/11/2021 | 160.638073 |
| 12/18/2021 | 162.7071817 |
| 12/25/2021 | 164.7762903 |
| 1/1/2022 | 163.8316064 |
| 1/8/2022 | 162.8869224 |
| 1/15/2022 | 161.9422385 |
| 1/22/2022 | 160.9975545 |
| 1/29/2022 | 160.0528705 |
| 2/5/2022 | 160.4499722 |
| 2/12/2022 | 160.8470739 |
| 2/19/2022 | 161.2441755 |
| 2/26/2022 | 161.6412772 |
| 3/5/2022 | 163.1251834 |
| 3/12/2022 | 164.6090896 |
| 3/19/2022 | 166.0929958 |
| 3/26/2022 | 167.5769021 |
| 4/2/2022 | 166.8189256 |
| 4/9/2022 | 166.060949 |
| 4/16/2022 | 165.3029725 |
| 4/23/2022 | 164.544996 |
| 4/30/2022 | 163.7870195 |
| 5/7/2022 | 162.700215 |
| 5/14/2022 | 161.6134104 |
| 5/21/2022 | 160.5266059 |
| 5/28/2022 | 159.4398013 |
| 6/4/2022 | 157.7608276 |
| 6/11/2022 | 156.0818539 |
| 6/18/2022 | 154.4028802 |
| 6/25/2022 | 152.7239065 |
| 7/2/2022 | 153.8915247 |
| 7/9/2022 | 155.059143 |
| 7/16/2022 | 156.2267612 |
| 7/23/2022 | 157.3943794 |
| 7/30/2022 | 158.5619976 |
| 8/6/2022 | 154.4446804 |
| 8/13/2022 | 150.3273631 |
| 8/20/2022 | 146.2100459 |
| 8/27/2022 | 142.0927286 |
| 9/3/2022 | 144.3778049 |
| 9/10/2022 | 146.6628811 |
| 9/17/2022 | 148.9479574 |
| 9/24/2022 | 151.2330336 |
| 10/1/2022 | 150.1657358 |
| 10/8/2022 | 149.098438 |
| 10/15/2022 | 148.0311402 |
| 10/22/2022 | 146.9638424 |
| 10/29/2022 | 145.8965446 |
| 11/5/2022 | 146.8544652 |
| 11/12/2022 | 147.8123859 |
| 11/19/2022 | 148.7703066 |
| 11/26/2022 | 149.7282273 |
| 12/3/2022 | 151.0881263 |
| 12/10/2022 | 152.4480253 |
| 12/17/2022 | 153.8079244 |
| 12/24/2022 | 155.1678234 |
| 12/31/2022 | 156.5277224 |
| 1/7/2023 | 154.190396 |
| 1/14/2023 | 151.8530695 |
| 1/21/2023 | 149.5157431 |
| 1/28/2023 | 147.1784166 |
| 2/4/2023 | 145.1267247 |
| 2/11/2023 | 143.0750327 |
| 2/18/2023 | 141.0233408 |
| 2/25/2023 | 138.9716489 |
| 3/4/2023 | 138.1739622 |
| 3/11/2023 | 137.3762755 |
| 3/18/2023 | 136.5785889 |
| 3/25/2023 | 135.7809022 |
| 4/1/2023 | 137.3832422 |
| 4/8/2023 | 138.9855823 |
| 4/15/2023 | 140.5879223 |
| 4/22/2023 | 142.1902624 |
| 4/29/2023 | 143.7926024 |
| 5/6/2023 | 141.3403255 |
| 5/13/2023 | 138.8880485 |
| 5/20/2023 | 136.4357716 |
| 5/27/2023 | 133.9834947 |
| 6/3/2023 | 132.4125047 |
| 6/10/2023 | 130.8415148 |
| 6/17/2023 | 129.2705249 |
| 6/24/2023 | 127.699535 |
| 7/1/2023 | 127.0167988 |
| 7/8/2023 | 126.3340626 |
| 7/15/2023 | 125.6513264 |
| 7/22/2023 | 124.9685902 |
| 7/29/2023 | 124.285854 |
| 8/5/2023 | 126.6893641 |
| 8/12/2023 | 129.0928742 |
| 8/19/2023 | 131.4963842 |
| 8/26/2023 | 133.8998943 |
Note: JOLTS job opening counts at the end of the each week divided by the average job opening counts in the year 2019. The gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession period extends from February 2020 through April 2020.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
Figure 4: Prime-Age Labor Force Participation Rate Index
Monthly (Feb 2020 = 0%)
| Period | Indexed Male Figure | Indexed Female Figure |
|---|---|---|
| 1/31/2015 | -0.008489741 | -0.040684581 |
| 2/28/2015 | -0.009412915 | -0.043314419 |
| 3/31/2015 | -0.008314728 | -0.046813782 |
| 4/30/2015 | -0.008769354 | -0.040799348 |
| 5/31/2015 | -0.010288959 | -0.037521531 |
| 6/30/2015 | -0.010444899 | -0.041425217 |
| 7/31/2015 | -0.012045312 | -0.044669823 |
| 8/31/2015 | -0.01153419 | -0.04528794 |
| 9/30/2015 | -0.01180102 | -0.047099636 |
| 10/31/2015 | -0.011715173 | -0.043487388 |
| 11/30/2015 | -0.012717172 | -0.039614207 |
| 12/31/2015 | -0.010957165 | -0.039550384 |
| 1/31/2016 | -0.009674175 | -0.037977694 |
| 2/29/2016 | -0.008988169 | -0.038385772 |
| 3/31/2016 | -0.005611343 | -0.035432504 |
| 4/30/2016 | -0.007399637 | -0.036025349 |
| 5/31/2016 | -0.00884234 | -0.035910543 |
| 6/30/2016 | -0.005445284 | -0.036187865 |
| 7/31/2016 | -0.007631473 | -0.035597174 |
| 8/31/2016 | -0.007704655 | -0.032555662 |
| 9/30/2016 | -0.006456936 | -0.029483331 |
| 10/31/2016 | -0.007133941 | -0.028989801 |
| 11/30/2016 | -0.007965159 | -0.032790049 |
| 12/31/2016 | -0.008486335 | -0.032646581 |
| 1/31/2017 | -0.004897449 | -0.032988516 |
| 2/28/2017 | -0.006582934 | -0.028292741 |
| 3/31/2017 | -0.007581033 | -0.027167327 |
| 4/30/2017 | -0.007264234 | -0.02418354 |
| 5/31/2017 | -0.007646234 | -0.0240058 |
| 6/30/2017 | -0.007498345 | -0.025884089 |
| 7/31/2017 | -0.007203683 | -0.022546523 |
| 8/31/2017 | -0.008808096 | -0.024810636 |
| 9/30/2017 | -0.005628097 | -0.021011326 |
| 10/31/2017 | -0.007059002 | -0.027755392 |
| 11/30/2017 | -0.008513472 | -0.022298828 |
| 12/31/2017 | -0.002774865 | -0.027093203 |
| 1/31/2018 | -0.002928536 | -0.028631282 |
| 2/28/2018 | 2.71E-04 | -0.022615712 |
| 3/31/2018 | -5.81E-04 | -0.025212935 |
| 4/30/2018 | 5.05E-04 | -0.026561698 |
| 5/31/2018 | -9.37E-04 | -0.025917751 |
| 6/30/2018 | -0.002383575 | -0.020644328 |
| 7/31/2018 | -0.003979556 | -0.01797663 |
| 8/31/2018 | -0.005432253 | -0.021518641 |
| 9/30/2018 | -0.005754522 | -0.021347218 |
| 10/31/2018 | -0.00265373 | -0.015681727 |
| 11/30/2018 | -0.00348016 | -0.016492049 |
| 12/31/2018 | -0.003129068 | -0.015138387 |
| 1/31/2019 | 0.001538549 | -0.014645149 |
| 2/28/2019 | 0.001432814 | -0.014420125 |
| 3/31/2019 | 0.004000164 | -0.018312507 |
| 4/30/2019 | -3.32E-04 | -0.018644118 |
| 5/31/2019 | -0.00384555 | -0.017182166 |
| 6/30/2019 | -0.005080616 | -0.01423517 |
| 7/31/2019 | -0.00319588 | -0.020171004 |
| 8/31/2019 | -0.002400164 | -0.009746612 |
| 9/30/2019 | -0.001463575 | -0.007037412 |
| 10/31/2019 | -0.002024271 | -0.00279077 |
| 11/30/2019 | -2.74E-04 | -0.004411204 |
| 12/31/2019 | -0.001318197 | -7.18E-04 |
| 1/31/2020 | 0.001705026 | -8.91E-05 |
| 2/29/2020 | -2.43E-08 | 5.71E-08 |
| 3/31/2020 | -0.001900606 | -0.010698716 |
| 4/30/2020 | -0.031660741 | -0.044320893 |
| 5/31/2020 | -0.022937732 | -0.035502008 |
| 6/30/2020 | -0.015739771 | -0.02210787 |
| 7/31/2020 | -0.018628451 | -0.024510221 |
| 8/31/2020 | -0.013969558 | -0.027216687 |
| 9/30/2020 | -0.018052189 | -0.033655024 |
| 10/31/2020 | -0.015631379 | -0.028113545 |
| 11/30/2020 | -0.020898918 | -0.029949354 |
| 12/31/2020 | -0.020909457 | -0.027841891 |
| 1/31/2021 | -0.017613897 | -0.028893677 |
| 2/28/2021 | -0.018212462 | -0.025258043 |
| 3/31/2021 | -0.018102661 | -0.0223037 |
| 4/30/2021 | -0.015584892 | -0.023644012 |
| 5/31/2021 | -0.015108723 | -0.025665405 |
| 6/30/2021 | -0.012537104 | -0.020120255 |
| 7/31/2021 | -0.009816294 | -0.018421934 |
| 8/31/2021 | -0.010169791 | -0.021091814 |
| 9/30/2021 | -0.012928091 | -0.022222994 |
| 10/31/2021 | -0.012514892 | -0.019775055 |
| 11/30/2021 | -0.011430846 | -0.015757788 |
| 12/31/2021 | -0.013433276 | -0.013264625 |
| 1/31/2022 | -0.011808279 | -0.011865865 |
| 2/28/2022 | -0.005195278 | -0.013868571 |
| 3/31/2022 | -0.00642457 | -0.005699436 |
| 4/30/2022 | -0.00531627 | -0.008738834 |
| 5/31/2022 | -0.005360035 | -0.005157499 |
| 6/30/2022 | -0.009013874 | -0.00743918 |
| 7/31/2022 | -0.008360187 | -0.007460285 |
| 8/31/2022 | -0.006637665 | 0.002148783 |
| 9/30/2022 | -0.005755492 | -0.005017986 |
| 10/31/2022 | -0.008315173 | -0.005550513 |
| 11/30/2022 | -0.009378662 | -0.007926617 |
| 12/31/2022 | -0.007557785 | -0.007594625 |
| 1/31/2023 | -0.008459624 | -5.06E-04 |
| 2/28/2023 | -0.003356499 | 0.003121669 |
| 3/31/2023 | -7.95E-04 | 0.00240558 |
| 4/30/2023 | -6.53E-04 | 0.00684789 |
| 5/31/2023 | -0.001577257 | 0.008833761 |
| 6/30/2023 | -6.49E-04 | 0.01070547 |
| 7/31/2023 | 0.001520213 | 0.006670076 |
| 8/31/2023 | 0.001208211 | 0.00901736 |
| 9/30/2023 | 0.004488587 | 0.006030955 |
Note: Labor force participation rate of workers ages 25 to 54 by gender, indexed by the difference from February 2020 value. The gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession period extends from February 2020 through April 2020.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 5: New Housing Starts
Millions of units (annual rate)
| Period | New Housing Starts |
|---|---|
| 1/1/1993 | 1.091 |
| 2/1/1993 | 1.063 |
| 3/1/1993 | 0.95 |
| 4/1/1993 | 1.11 |
| 5/1/1993 | 1.128 |
| 6/1/1993 | 1.081 |
| 7/1/1993 | 1.086 |
| 8/1/1993 | 1.162 |
| 9/1/1993 | 1.143 |
| 10/1/1993 | 1.209 |
| 11/1/1993 | 1.228 |
| 12/1/1993 | 1.316 |
| 1/1/1994 | 1.14 |
| 2/1/1994 | 1.133 |
| 3/1/1994 | 1.306 |
| 4/1/1994 | 1.206 |
| 5/1/1994 | 1.244 |
| 6/1/1994 | 1.193 |
| 7/1/1994 | 1.231 |
| 8/1/1994 | 1.149 |
| 9/1/1994 | 1.201 |
| 10/1/1994 | 1.152 |
| 11/1/1994 | 1.187 |
| 12/1/1994 | 1.151 |
| 1/1/1995 | 1.083 |
| 2/1/1995 | 1.053 |
| 3/1/1995 | 0.996 |
| 4/1/1995 | 1.013 |
| 5/1/1995 | 1.024 |
| 6/1/1995 | 1.022 |
| 7/1/1995 | 1.133 |
| 8/1/1995 | 1.138 |
| 9/1/1995 | 1.095 |
| 10/1/1995 | 1.128 |
| 11/1/1995 | 1.131 |
| 12/1/1995 | 1.168 |
| 1/1/1996 | 1.143 |
| 2/1/1996 | 1.158 |
| 3/1/1996 | 1.147 |
| 4/1/1996 | 1.211 |
| 5/1/1996 | 1.156 |
| 6/1/1996 | 1.192 |
| 7/1/1996 | 1.151 |
| 8/1/1996 | 1.252 |
| 9/1/1996 | 1.148 |
| 10/1/1996 | 1.113 |
| 11/1/1996 | 1.121 |
| 12/1/1996 | 1.06 |
| 1/1/1997 | 1.108 |
| 2/1/1997 | 1.181 |
| 3/1/1997 | 1.13 |
| 4/1/1997 | 1.124 |
| 5/1/1997 | 1.105 |
| 6/1/1997 | 1.12 |
| 7/1/1997 | 1.133 |
| 8/1/1997 | 1.1 |
| 9/1/1997 | 1.205 |
| 10/1/1997 | 1.127 |
| 11/1/1997 | 1.154 |
| 12/1/1997 | 1.149 |
| 1/1/1998 | 1.227 |
| 2/1/1998 | 1.237 |
| 3/1/1998 | 1.221 |
| 4/1/1998 | 1.23 |
| 5/1/1998 | 1.212 |
| 6/1/1998 | 1.275 |
| 7/1/1998 | 1.3 |
| 8/1/1998 | 1.274 |
| 9/1/1998 | 1.262 |
| 10/1/1998 | 1.298 |
| 11/1/1998 | 1.383 |
| 12/1/1998 | 1.412 |
| 1/1/1999 | 1.349 |
| 2/1/1999 | 1.317 |
| 3/1/1999 | 1.345 |
| 4/1/1999 | 1.22 |
| 5/1/1999 | 1.312 |
| 6/1/1999 | 1.266 |
| 7/1/1999 | 1.308 |
| 8/1/1999 | 1.265 |
| 9/1/1999 | 1.286 |
| 10/1/1999 | 1.31 |
| 11/1/1999 | 1.321 |
| 12/1/1999 | 1.375 |
| 1/1/2000 | 1.268 |
| 2/1/2000 | 1.255 |
| 3/1/2000 | 1.313 |
| 4/1/2000 | 1.275 |
| 5/1/2000 | 1.23 |
| 6/1/2000 | 1.202 |
| 7/1/2000 | 1.142 |
| 8/1/2000 | 1.231 |
| 9/1/2000 | 1.195 |
| 10/1/2000 | 1.235 |
| 11/1/2000 | 1.212 |
| 12/1/2000 | 1.226 |
| 1/1/2001 | 1.275 |
| 2/1/2001 | 1.28 |
| 3/1/2001 | 1.218 |
| 4/1/2001 | 1.311 |
| 5/1/2001 | 1.285 |
| 6/1/2001 | 1.295 |
| 7/1/2001 | 1.298 |
| 8/1/2001 | 1.286 |
| 9/1/2001 | 1.243 |
| 10/1/2001 | 1.24 |
| 11/1/2001 | 1.244 |
| 12/1/2001 | 1.285 |
| 1/1/2002 | 1.318 |
| 2/1/2002 | 1.501 |
| 3/1/2002 | 1.292 |
| 4/1/2002 | 1.277 |
| 5/1/2002 | 1.402 |
| 6/1/2002 | 1.368 |
| 7/1/2002 | 1.323 |
| 8/1/2002 | 1.247 |
| 9/1/2002 | 1.446 |
| 10/1/2002 | 1.352 |
| 11/1/2002 | 1.394 |
| 12/1/2002 | 1.439 |
| 1/1/2003 | 1.537 |
| 2/1/2003 | 1.301 |
| 3/1/2003 | 1.399 |
| 4/1/2003 | 1.374 |
| 5/1/2003 | 1.391 |
| 6/1/2003 | 1.513 |
| 7/1/2003 | 1.535 |
| 8/1/2003 | 1.484 |
| 9/1/2003 | 1.555 |
| 10/1/2003 | 1.631 |
| 11/1/2003 | 1.694 |
| 12/1/2003 | 1.647 |
| 1/1/2004 | 1.56 |
| 2/1/2004 | 1.481 |
| 3/1/2004 | 1.632 |
| 4/1/2004 | 1.646 |
| 5/1/2004 | 1.652 |
| 6/1/2004 | 1.526 |
| 7/1/2004 | 1.675 |
| 8/1/2004 | 1.691 |
| 9/1/2004 | 1.555 |
| 10/1/2004 | 1.66 |
| 11/1/2004 | 1.458 |
| 12/1/2004 | 1.714 |
| 1/1/2005 | 1.739 |
| 2/1/2005 | 1.792 |
| 3/1/2005 | 1.583 |
| 4/1/2005 | 1.658 |
| 5/1/2005 | 1.714 |
| 6/1/2005 | 1.719 |
| 7/1/2005 | 1.724 |
| 8/1/2005 | 1.728 |
| 9/1/2005 | 1.789 |
| 10/1/2005 | 1.74 |
| 11/1/2005 | 1.808 |
| 12/1/2005 | 1.628 |
| 1/1/2006 | 1.823 |
| 2/1/2006 | 1.804 |
| 3/1/2006 | 1.601 |
| 4/1/2006 | 1.511 |
| 5/1/2006 | 1.57 |
| 6/1/2006 | 1.451 |
| 7/1/2006 | 1.424 |
| 8/1/2006 | 1.364 |
| 9/1/2006 | 1.384 |
| 10/1/2006 | 1.212 |
| 11/1/2006 | 1.29 |
| 12/1/2006 | 1.249 |
| 1/1/2007 | 1.13 |
| 2/1/2007 | 1.189 |
| 3/1/2007 | 1.202 |
| 4/1/2007 | 1.197 |
| 5/1/2007 | 1.13 |
| 6/1/2007 | 1.131 |
| 7/1/2007 | 1.042 |
| 8/1/2007 | 0.957 |
| 9/1/2007 | 0.935 |
| 10/1/2007 | 0.878 |
| 11/1/2007 | 0.833 |
| 12/1/2007 | 0.805 |
| 1/1/2008 | 0.773 |
| 2/1/2008 | 0.724 |
| 3/1/2008 | 0.728 |
| 4/1/2008 | 0.682 |
| 5/1/2008 | 0.679 |
| 6/1/2008 | 0.647 |
| 7/1/2008 | 0.615 |
| 8/1/2008 | 0.607 |
| 9/1/2008 | 0.537 |
| 10/1/2008 | 0.542 |
| 11/1/2008 | 0.459 |
| 12/1/2008 | 0.403 |
| 1/1/2009 | 0.358 |
| 2/1/2009 | 0.358 |
| 3/1/2009 | 0.353 |
| 4/1/2009 | 0.387 |
| 5/1/2009 | 0.408 |
| 6/1/2009 | 0.482 |
| 7/1/2009 | 0.509 |
| 8/1/2009 | 0.487 |
| 9/1/2009 | 0.51 |
| 10/1/2009 | 0.476 |
| 11/1/2009 | 0.497 |
| 12/1/2009 | 0.484 |
| 1/1/2010 | 0.51 |
| 2/1/2010 | 0.526 |
| 3/1/2010 | 0.542 |
| 4/1/2010 | 0.566 |
| 5/1/2010 | 0.457 |
| 6/1/2010 | 0.445 |
| 7/1/2010 | 0.426 |
| 8/1/2010 | 0.417 |
| 9/1/2010 | 0.449 |
| 10/1/2010 | 0.438 |
| 11/1/2010 | 0.452 |
| 12/1/2010 | 0.429 |
| 1/1/2011 | 0.43 |
| 2/1/2011 | 0.391 |
| 3/1/2011 | 0.429 |
| 4/1/2011 | 0.415 |
| 5/1/2011 | 0.414 |
| 6/1/2011 | 0.435 |
| 7/1/2011 | 0.432 |
| 8/1/2011 | 0.422 |
| 9/1/2011 | 0.418 |
| 10/1/2011 | 0.439 |
| 11/1/2011 | 0.465 |
| 12/1/2011 | 0.522 |
| 1/1/2012 | 0.518 |
| 2/1/2012 | 0.466 |
| 3/1/2012 | 0.472 |
| 4/1/2012 | 0.504 |
| 5/1/2012 | 0.518 |
| 6/1/2012 | 0.524 |
| 7/1/2012 | 0.517 |
| 8/1/2012 | 0.536 |
| 9/1/2012 | 0.594 |
| 10/1/2012 | 0.611 |
| 11/1/2012 | 0.569 |
| 12/1/2012 | 0.615 |
| 1/1/2013 | 0.604 |
| 2/1/2013 | 0.651 |
| 3/1/2013 | 0.624 |
| 4/1/2013 | 0.587 |
| 5/1/2013 | 0.608 |
| 6/1/2013 | 0.614 |
| 7/1/2013 | 0.593 |
| 8/1/2013 | 0.631 |
| 9/1/2013 | 0.577 |
| 10/1/2013 | 0.595 |
| 11/1/2013 | 0.699 |
| 12/1/2013 | 0.647 |
| 1/1/2014 | 0.567 |
| 2/1/2014 | 0.594 |
| 3/1/2014 | 0.652 |
| 4/1/2014 | 0.646 |
| 5/1/2014 | 0.652 |
| 6/1/2014 | 0.603 |
| 7/1/2014 | 0.656 |
| 8/1/2014 | 0.644 |
| 9/1/2014 | 0.664 |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.699 |
| 11/1/2014 | 0.658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.72 |
| 1/1/2015 | 0.703 |
| 2/1/2015 | 0.584 |
| 3/1/2015 | 0.627 |
| 4/1/2015 | 0.742 |
| 5/1/2015 | 0.708 |
| 6/1/2015 | 0.7 |
| 7/1/2015 | 0.759 |
| 8/1/2015 | 0.734 |
| 9/1/2015 | 0.746 |
| 10/1/2015 | 0.705 |
| 11/1/2015 | 0.774 |
| 12/1/2015 | 0.765 |
| 1/1/2016 | 0.752 |
| 2/1/2016 | 0.859 |
| 3/1/2016 | 0.753 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.777 |
| 5/1/2016 | 0.753 |
| 6/1/2016 | 0.769 |
| 7/1/2016 | 0.769 |
| 8/1/2016 | 0.734 |
| 9/1/2016 | 0.777 |
| 10/1/2016 | 0.859 |
| 11/1/2016 | 0.817 |
| 12/1/2016 | 0.801 |
| 1/1/2017 | 0.785 |
| 2/1/2017 | 0.864 |
| 3/1/2017 | 0.836 |
| 4/1/2017 | 0.825 |
| 5/1/2017 | 0.832 |
| 6/1/2017 | 0.867 |
| 7/1/2017 | 0.841 |
| 8/1/2017 | 0.867 |
| 9/1/2017 | 0.839 |
| 10/1/2017 | 0.878 |
| 11/1/2017 | 0.924 |
| 12/1/2017 | 0.824 |
| 1/1/2018 | 0.872 |
| 2/1/2018 | 0.894 |
| 3/1/2018 | 0.875 |
| 4/1/2018 | 0.908 |
| 5/1/2018 | 0.97 |
| 6/1/2018 | 0.866 |
| 7/1/2018 | 0.869 |
| 8/1/2018 | 0.9 |
| 9/1/2018 | 0.875 |
| 10/1/2018 | 0.872 |
| 11/1/2018 | 0.781 |
| 12/1/2018 | 0.775 |
| 1/1/2019 | 0.925 |
| 2/1/2019 | 0.779 |
| 3/1/2019 | 0.831 |
| 4/1/2019 | 0.87 |
| 5/1/2019 | 0.858 |
| 6/1/2019 | 0.864 |
| 7/1/2019 | 0.899 |
| 8/1/2019 | 0.903 |
| 9/1/2019 | 0.92 |
| 10/1/2019 | 0.898 |
| 11/1/2019 | 0.911 |
| 12/1/2019 | 1.009 |
| 1/1/2020 | 0.968 |
| 2/1/2020 | 1.039 |
| 3/1/2020 | 0.879 |
| 4/1/2020 | 0.676 |
| 5/1/2020 | 0.75 |
| 6/1/2020 | 0.904 |
| 7/1/2020 | 1.012 |
| 8/1/2020 | 1.029 |
| 9/1/2020 | 1.116 |
| 10/1/2020 | 1.18 |
| 11/1/2020 | 1.173 |
| 12/1/2020 | 1.311 |
| 1/1/2021 | 1.115 |
| 2/1/2021 | 1.05 |
| 3/1/2021 | 1.227 |
| 4/1/2021 | 1.043 |
| 5/1/2021 | 1.109 |
| 6/1/2021 | 1.173 |
| 7/1/2021 | 1.136 |
| 8/1/2021 | 1.099 |
| 9/1/2021 | 1.094 |
| 10/1/2021 | 1.087 |
| 11/1/2021 | 1.231 |
| 12/1/2021 | 1.217 |
| 1/1/2022 | 1.157 |
| 2/1/2022 | 1.211 |
| 3/1/2022 | 1.179 |
| 4/1/2022 | 1.176 |
| 5/1/2022 | 1.067 |
| 6/1/2022 | 1.01 |
| 7/1/2022 | 0.898 |
| 8/1/2022 | 0.919 |
| 9/1/2022 | 0.887 |
| 10/1/2022 | 0.858 |
| 11/1/2022 | 0.804 |
| 12/1/2022 | 0.887 |
| 1/1/2023 | 0.823 |
| 2/1/2023 | 0.835 |
| 3/1/2023 | 0.843 |
| 4/1/2023 | 0.847 |
| 5/1/2023 | 1.012 |
| 6/1/2023 | 0.93 |
| 7/1/2023 | 0.983 |
| 8/1/2023 | 0.941 |
Note: Annualized monthly single-family new housing starts (millions). The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extends from March 2001 through November 2001, December 2007 through June 2009, and February 2020 through April 2020.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Figure 6: Measures of Corporate and Household Borrowing Rates
This is a line chart titled "Measures of corporate and household borrowing rates". The X-axis ranges from the year 2018 to the year 2024. The Y-axis ranges from 0% to 8%. The data in question is daily in its frequency. There are a total of three variables in the plot. The first variable, represented by a solid black line is the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The second variable, represented by a solid red like, is the ICE Bank of America BBB U.S. Corporate index effective yield. The third and final variable, represented by a solid blue line, is the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average interest rate in the US.
Pertaining to the first variable, the Effective Federal Funds rate, increases from 4% to 5% between the time of 2018 and 2019. From 2019 to 2022, it begins to decrease slowly and steadily from 5% to slightly below 3%. Then from 2022 onwards, it quickly and consistently increases from around 3% to 7%, its current value.
Pertaining to the second variable, the ICE Bank of America BBB U.S. Corporate index effective yield, increases in much the same way as the first variable, from approximately 3.75% to almost 5% from 2018 to 2019. Then, from 2019 to early 2020, it slowly decreases from almost 5% to about 2.5%. Then, during the COVID recession starting in early 2020, the variable substantially increases up to almost 6% in a matter of months. Then by the latter half of 2020, the rate sharply declines from it's 6% local peak, down to 2.5%, variating around this point in a fairly uniform manner until mid-2021. Starting from this mid-2021 point, the variable begins to increase steadily, eventually settling at its current value of roughly 6.5% as of now.
For the final variable, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average interest rate in the US, it roughly begins in 2018 with a value of 1.5% increasing slowly to roughly 2.5% in mid-2019. Then from mid-2019, the rate sharply declines, reaching as level near 0% in early 2020. The variable then continues to exist at this near 0% level until early 2022, in which it sharply, near vertically, increases to about 4% in a matter of a year. Then, in 2023, the value begins to increase, albeit more slowly than its previous incline, yet still steeply, to its current value of about 5.25%.
Note: Mortgage rate data are weekly, and the other series are daily. The effective federal funds rate, ICE Bank of America (BofA) BBB U.S. Corporate Index effective yield, and 30?year fixed rate mortgage average in the United States. The gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession period extends from February 2020 through April 2020.
Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission, and Freddie Mac.
Figure 7: Average Interest Rate on Corporate Bond Debt
Monthly (percent)
| Period | Average Corporate Interest Rate |
|---|---|
| 3/31/1993 | 7.950937372 |
| 6/30/1993 | 7.919603244 |
| 9/30/1993 | 7.675760016 |
| 12/31/1993 | 7.921748197 |
| 3/31/1994 | 7.434143705 |
| 6/30/1994 | 7.529542049 |
| 9/30/1994 | 8.349128785 |
| 12/31/1994 | 8.273142581 |
| 3/31/1995 | 7.900764631 |
| 6/30/1995 | 8.074148012 |
| 9/30/1995 | 8.534659917 |
| 12/31/1995 | 8.515092798 |
| 3/31/1996 | 7.602122917 |
| 6/30/1996 | 7.930703954 |
| 9/30/1996 | 8.104031834 |
| 12/31/1996 | 7.929680593 |
| 3/31/1997 | 7.510248627 |
| 6/30/1997 | 7.68387239 |
| 9/30/1997 | 7.91455608 |
| 12/31/1997 | 7.755208059 |
| 3/31/1998 | 7.199392379 |
| 6/30/1998 | 7.255204442 |
| 9/30/1998 | 7.548878132 |
| 12/31/1998 | 7.433092982 |
| 3/31/1999 | 7.069283786 |
| 6/30/1999 | 7.306528492 |
| 9/30/1999 | 7.580856311 |
| 12/31/1999 | 7.646039929 |
| 3/31/2000 | 7.427149502 |
| 6/30/2000 | 7.421555563 |
| 9/30/2000 | 7.790709262 |
| 12/31/2000 | 7.891998875 |
| 3/31/2001 | 7.392394666 |
| 6/30/2001 | 7.2313826 |
| 9/30/2001 | 7.185315189 |
| 12/31/2001 | 6.787334542 |
| 3/31/2002 | 6.248969341 |
| 6/30/2002 | 6.369444881 |
| 9/30/2002 | 6.519416766 |
| 12/31/2002 | 6.664025685 |
| 3/31/2003 | 6.381049418 |
| 6/30/2003 | 6.453445952 |
| 9/30/2003 | 6.44692881 |
| 12/31/2003 | 7.040242836 |
| 3/31/2004 | 6.295544333 |
| 6/30/2004 | 6.24425684 |
| 9/30/2004 | 6.370175164 |
| 12/31/2004 | 6.77115378 |
| 3/31/2005 | 6.504860565 |
| 6/30/2005 | 6.498843359 |
| 9/30/2005 | 6.821723362 |
| 12/31/2005 | 6.986562492 |
| 3/31/2006 | 6.531336757 |
| 6/30/2006 | 6.750692709 |
| 9/30/2006 | 6.779584508 |
| 12/31/2006 | 7.141876685 |
| 3/31/2007 | 6.782134033 |
| 6/30/2007 | 6.727992094 |
| 9/30/2007 | 6.782549122 |
| 12/31/2007 | 6.964585226 |
| 3/31/2008 | 6.506680916 |
| 6/30/2008 | 6.202607846 |
| 9/30/2008 | 6.207589483 |
| 12/31/2008 | 6.725563179 |
| 3/31/2009 | 5.999042091 |
| 6/30/2009 | 6.523576107 |
| 9/30/2009 | 6.363397334 |
| 12/31/2009 | 6.629433663 |
| 3/31/2010 | 6.22014527 |
| 6/30/2010 | 6.26141077 |
| 9/30/2010 | 6.216957234 |
| 12/31/2010 | 6.348081271 |
| 3/31/2011 | 5.880762909 |
| 6/30/2011 | 5.895376234 |
| 9/30/2011 | 5.786185196 |
| 12/31/2011 | 6.219577866 |
| 3/31/2012 | 5.638838959 |
| 6/30/2012 | 5.614791794 |
| 9/30/2012 | 5.532414463 |
| 12/31/2012 | 5.68234161 |
| 3/31/2013 | 5.280413031 |
| 6/30/2013 | 5.278455179 |
| 9/30/2013 | 5.080541778 |
| 12/31/2013 | 5.261493716 |
| 3/31/2014 | 4.970536235 |
| 6/30/2014 | 4.961018066 |
| 9/30/2014 | 4.897575221 |
| 12/31/2014 | 5.030933761 |
| 3/31/2015 | 4.780158962 |
| 6/30/2015 | 4.53512917 |
| 9/30/2015 | 4.604626052 |
| 12/31/2015 | 4.587537682 |
| 3/31/2016 | 4.523543872 |
| 6/30/2016 | 4.489746571 |
| 9/30/2016 | 4.467138494 |
| 12/31/2016 | 4.396572979 |
| 3/31/2017 | 4.360298984 |
| 6/30/2017 | 4.358050886 |
| 9/30/2017 | 4.305974523 |
| 12/31/2017 | 4.481959723 |
| 3/31/2018 | 4.268363929 |
| 6/30/2018 | 4.339472655 |
| 9/30/2018 | 4.406420056 |
| 12/31/2018 | 4.664707482 |
| 3/31/2019 | 4.172918242 |
| 6/30/2019 | 4.129846511 |
| 9/30/2019 | 4.064045986 |
| 12/31/2019 | 4.023082994 |
| 3/31/2020 | 3.794344618 |
| 6/30/2020 | 3.65328188 |
| 9/30/2020 | 3.630262857 |
| 12/31/2020 | 3.624561654 |
| 3/31/2021 | 3.440953632 |
| 6/30/2021 | 3.577924999 |
| 9/30/2021 | 3.446940092 |
| 12/31/2021 | 3.391401426 |
| 3/31/2022 | 3.211280769 |
| 6/30/2022 | 3.321940908 |
| 9/30/2022 | 3.581229294 |
| 12/31/2022 | 3.851273648 |
| 3/31/2023 | 4.051979527 |
| 6/30/2023 | 4.09157363 |
Note: Average annual percentage rate for all U.S. nonfinancial public firms, calculated as the ratio of total interest expense to total debt. The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extends from March 2001 through November 2001, December 2007 through June 2009, and February 2020 through April 2020.
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors: Compustat.
Last Update:
October 09, 2023