Accessible Version

Accessible Version

Figure 1: U.S. Uncertainty Measures

Standard Deviations

Date VIX Aggregate EU EPU
1/1/2018 -1.134744675 -0.042473545 0.53718223
2/1/2018 0.367413217 -0.051494607 0.530731685
3/1/2018 -0.085869515 -0.089782923 0.537156104
4/1/2018 -0.184695692 -0.101127375 0.633547047
5/1/2018 -0.731533872 -0.133470931 0.58011593
6/1/2018 -0.789511896 -0.167386328 0.46200681
7/1/2018 -0.859349061 -0.155971712 0.259427084
8/1/2018 -0.938410003 -0.04164966 0.267825736
9/1/2018 -0.890973438 -0.130970682 0.212568985
10/1/2018 -0.042385997 -0.120730168 0.760164527
11/1/2018 -0.037115268 -0.1332243 1.560596433
12/1/2018 0.695516126 -0.05430714 1.499391155
1/1/2019 -0.013396985 0.093344236 1.576365147
2/1/2019 -0.58527113 -0.010328642 1.002889906
3/1/2019 -0.682779625 0.039668945 0.398078277
4/1/2019 -0.885702708 0.084263011 0.811917111
5/1/2019 -0.388936458 0.058111056 0.944939733
6/1/2019 -0.504892506 0.097556589 1.792891284
7/1/2019 -0.838266143 0.2266276 1.919382736
8/1/2019 -0.091140244 0.360572892 1.681535671
9/1/2019 -0.541787612 0.512765408 1.498709695
10/1/2019 -0.553646753 0.737958563 1.047261087
11/1/2019 -0.94236305 1.088554625 0.9398895
12/1/2019 -0.778970437 2.194063783 1.21796565
1/1/2020 -0.755252155 2.51833085 2.470484391
2/1/2020 -0.005490891 3.000765761 3.502920725
3/1/2020 5.016196589 4.107195979 5.167105236
4/1/2020 2.869692022 7.344819257 5.579456731
5/1/2020 1.479537131 6.996607165 5.589936817
6/1/2020 1.508526143 3.820681978 4.915480684
7/1/2020 0.944558092 3.683995917 3.682210194
8/1/2020 0.424073559 3.275994543 3.709323638
9/1/2020 1.051290363 3.053047687 3.217214745
10/1/2020 1.287155506 2.902663888 3.527010834
11/1/2020 0.702104537 2.923527374 3.569783696
12/1/2020 0.355554076 3.024575569 2.989653428
1/1/2021 0.690245396 3.301071619 2.200636435
2/1/2021 0.457015618 3.528779651 1.291457334
3/1/2021 0.285716911 3.939966104 0.85378539
4/1/2021 -0.296698693 4.443382388 0.665448673
5/1/2021 0.01163898 4.23187015 0.740933156
6/1/2021 -0.357312081 3.980902732 0.818915526
7/1/2021 -0.27298041 3.732459112 0.815011601
8/1/2021 -0.290110281 3.588647524 0.755103289
9/1/2021 0.019545074 3.617947054 0.724202105
10/1/2021 -0.237402986 3.614569305 0.941239917
11/1/2021 -0.154388998 3.534171079 0.862640469
12/1/2021 0.221150475 3.472661137 0.879921
1/1/2022 0.462286348 3.529189184 1.141768041
2/1/2022 0.800930714 3.42572366 0.981800562
3/1/2022 0.961687963 3.467373759 1.154364147
4/1/2022 0.619090549 3.356319542 1.215042928
5/1/2022 1.270025635 3.409891366 1.183375018
6/1/2022 1.12771594 3.537089634 1.253076192
7/1/2022 0.702104537 3.673483414 1.308443662
8/1/2022 0.329200429 3.686089242 1.57565262
9/1/2022 1.01044221 3.593963633 1.514743567
10/1/2022 1.362263401 3.464548034 1.352853957
11/1/2022 0.478098536 3.368506727 1.155082887
12/1/2022 0.277810817 3.436464619 0.888642826
1/1/2023 0.065663957 3.323342462 0.840146171
2/1/2023 0.059075545 3.2515421 0.915603929
3/1/2023 0.259363264 3.389395971 1.130616751

Note: The Chicago Board of Options Exchange's Volatility Index (VIX), Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023)'s U.S. aggregate economic uncertainty (EU), and Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016)'s economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Series are standardized over January 1990 to March 2023. EPU series are 4-month rolling averages. The gray shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession period extends from February 2020 through April 2020.

Source: Bloomberg; Main Economic Indicators via OECD; Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016); Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023).

Figure 2: U.S. Economic Uncertainty

This is a line chart titled “Figure 2: U.S. Economic Uncertainty”. The x axis ranges from 1960 to 2024 in yearly units. The Y axis ranges from -2 to 8 in standard deviations. The data is monthly. There is one variable charted on the plot. The line is labeled Standard Deviation of US Economic Uncertainty; and is designated by a solid red line. This variable oscillates between -1 and 1 in a consistent manner from 1960 to 2020. In 2020, the variable increases very sharply, up to roughly 7.3 for about 3 months. It then sharply decreases to 3.5 and then begins oscillating in the same pattern as prior, bounded by 3 and 5.

Note: Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023)'s U.S. aggregate economic uncertainty (EU). Series standardized over its historical mean (July 1960 to March 2023). The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extend from April 1960 to February 1961, December 1969 to November 1970, November 1973 to March 1975, January 1980 to July 1980, July 1981 to November 1982, July 1990 to March 1991, March 2001 to November 2001, December 2007 to June 2009, and February 2020 to April 2020.

Source: Main Economic Indicators via OECD; Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023).

Figure 2: U.S. Economic Uncertainty Data
Date Standard deviation of REU
7/1/1960 0.153588192
8/1/1960 0.189612389
9/1/1960 0.32709424
10/1/1960 0.594231022
11/1/1960 0.605018468
12/1/1960 0.554848088
1/1/1961 0.475512758
2/1/1961 0.422283868
3/1/1961 0.4116922
4/1/1961 0.603703495
5/1/1961 0.460705946
6/1/1961 0.481034183
7/1/1961 0.52118034
8/1/1961 0.499852441
9/1/1961 0.412763616
10/1/1961 0.389164879
11/1/1961 0.421267277
12/1/1961 0.223804757
1/1/1962 0.111823688
2/1/1962 0.123831587
3/1/1962 0.025850038
4/1/1962 0.036325718
5/1/1962 -0.035327035
6/1/1962 -0.09648145
7/1/1962 0.02661987
8/1/1962 0.266382299
9/1/1962 0.363486765
10/1/1962 0.438993535
11/1/1962 0.423394143
12/1/1962 0.462919622
1/1/1963 0.675161642
2/1/1963 0.942778147
3/1/1963 0.687018768
4/1/1963 0.258004253
5/1/1963 0.037085422
6/1/1963 -0.047780707
7/1/1963 -0.102313251
8/1/1963 -0.132917198
9/1/1963 -0.190876806
10/1/1963 -0.352610103
11/1/1963 -0.283309953
12/1/1963 -0.247154676
1/1/1964 -0.280331626
2/1/1964 -0.251280664
3/1/1964 -0.359253123
4/1/1964 -0.242461854
5/1/1964 -0.30827826
6/1/1964 -0.283000514
7/1/1964 -0.291795494
8/1/1964 -0.330504535
9/1/1964 -0.18655252
10/1/1964 0.084841038
11/1/1964 0.187028602
12/1/1964 0.152940929
1/1/1965 0.254454001
2/1/1965 0.263280957
3/1/1965 0.304398444
4/1/1965 0.246485224
5/1/1965 0.107382761
6/1/1965 0.016164147
7/1/1965 0.017843439
8/1/1965 -0.243362403
9/1/1965 -0.349341522
10/1/1965 -0.480701128
11/1/1965 -0.617505305
12/1/1965 -0.636924919
1/1/1966 -0.665681427
2/1/1966 -0.606133431
3/1/1966 -0.66619621
4/1/1966 -0.600391887
5/1/1966 -0.52904379
6/1/1966 -0.488520968
7/1/1966 -0.586224018
8/1/1966 -0.619802409
9/1/1966 -0.559010257
10/1/1966 -0.609255366
11/1/1966 -0.505331857
12/1/1966 -0.410027015
1/1/1967 -0.385936981
2/1/1967 -0.430857334
3/1/1967 -0.45608551
4/1/1967 -0.459092313
5/1/1967 -0.465253436
6/1/1967 -0.424911301
7/1/1967 -0.528772838
8/1/1967 -0.519534548
9/1/1967 -0.501820937
10/1/1967 -0.311225955
11/1/1967 -0.1315518
12/1/1967 0.047778666
1/1/1968 0.385414966
2/1/1968 0.205590792
3/1/1968 0.108623361
4/1/1968 -0.009714174
5/1/1968 -0.100172502
6/1/1968 -0.143088404
7/1/1968 -0.276023152
8/1/1968 -0.396214582
9/1/1968 -0.420017908
10/1/1968 -0.471700977
11/1/1968 -0.502535735
12/1/1968 -0.444877411
1/1/1969 -0.441669956
2/1/1969 -0.363220609
3/1/1969 -0.408005654
4/1/1969 -0.393919559
5/1/1969 -0.450219069
6/1/1969 -0.404441955
7/1/1969 -0.52931246
8/1/1969 -0.619041333
9/1/1969 -0.582415952
10/1/1969 -0.594291371
11/1/1969 -0.517332301
12/1/1969 -0.471337659
1/1/1970 -0.288624971
2/1/1970 -0.321531496
3/1/1970 -0.316765492
4/1/1970 -0.302058647
5/1/1970 -0.280864484
6/1/1970 -0.316500441
7/1/1970 -0.294721368
8/1/1970 -0.235672561
9/1/1970 -0.073825258
10/1/1970 0.059491046
11/1/1970 0.083238501
12/1/1970 0.134598376
1/1/1971 0.003329591
2/1/1971 -0.057736668
3/1/1971 -0.139972888
4/1/1971 -0.217261481
5/1/1971 -0.241242865
6/1/1971 -0.158180624
7/1/1971 -0.059620622
8/1/1971 -0.130789723
9/1/1971 -0.108136441
10/1/1971 -0.093156708
11/1/1971 0.083742055
12/1/1971 0.098781378
1/1/1972 0.317428443
2/1/1972 -0.155486906
3/1/1972 -0.321384723
4/1/1972 -0.560881473
5/1/1972 -0.713259639
6/1/1972 -0.784927948
7/1/1972 -0.769842111
8/1/1972 -0.69881319
9/1/1972 -0.633741177
10/1/1972 -0.479917903
11/1/1972 -0.360845322
12/1/1972 -0.205822471
1/1/1973 -0.077207062
2/1/1973 -0.069310895
3/1/1973 -0.227392927
4/1/1973 -0.297941688
5/1/1973 -0.424167708
6/1/1973 -0.410746942
7/1/1973 -0.420754373
8/1/1973 -0.452854552
9/1/1973 -0.395243979
10/1/1973 -0.326542076
11/1/1973 -0.34854615
12/1/1973 -0.347464233
1/1/1974 -0.34332749
2/1/1974 -0.323997613
3/1/1974 -0.24209228
4/1/1974 -0.00684948
5/1/1974 0.240767638
6/1/1974 0.125749317
7/1/1974 0.167810122
8/1/1974 0.332742364
9/1/1974 0.610748956
10/1/1974 0.740983204
11/1/1974 1.108649015
12/1/1974 1.328122856
1/1/1975 1.41807453
2/1/1975 1.257493522
3/1/1975 0.988543269
4/1/1975 0.616532933
5/1/1975 0.40632333
6/1/1975 0.1679295
7/1/1975 -0.010986196
8/1/1975 -0.162155357
9/1/1975 -0.345861588
10/1/1975 -0.480644985
11/1/1975 -0.455208382
12/1/1975 -0.460178303
1/1/1976 -0.33397094
2/1/1976 -0.384428529
3/1/1976 -0.424755372
4/1/1976 -0.350208894
5/1/1976 -0.410699163
6/1/1976 -0.445095502
7/1/1976 -0.473172952
8/1/1976 -0.617873596
9/1/1976 -0.65199971
10/1/1976 -0.582774024
11/1/1976 -0.526794836
12/1/1976 -0.444982806
1/1/1977 -0.234842084
2/1/1977 -0.159204379
3/1/1977 -0.191323616
4/1/1977 -0.274718171
5/1/1977 -0.256278206
6/1/1977 -0.284532032
7/1/1977 -0.389513173
8/1/1977 -0.468356114
9/1/1977 -0.449793461
10/1/1977 -0.340828923
11/1/1977 -0.321996463
12/1/1977 -0.218398832
1/1/1978 -0.113543798
2/1/1978 -0.230849886
3/1/1978 -0.24318939
4/1/1978 -0.160426677
5/1/1978 -0.157051511
6/1/1978 -0.199877875
7/1/1978 -0.235048765
8/1/1978 -0.265464798
9/1/1978 -0.267718125
10/1/1978 -0.343297322
11/1/1978 -0.361166844
12/1/1978 -0.439449252
1/1/1979 -0.436242169
2/1/1979 -0.477597586
3/1/1979 -0.408126178
4/1/1979 -0.149368888
5/1/1979 -0.155152628
6/1/1979 -0.181229747
7/1/1979 -0.231095462
8/1/1979 -0.177240403
9/1/1979 -0.132464423
10/1/1979 -0.078102401
11/1/1979 -0.008302707
12/1/1979 0.149506137
1/1/1980 0.332318565
2/1/1980 0.507049521
3/1/1980 0.824648702
4/1/1980 1.038960435
5/1/1980 1.098817743
6/1/1980 0.846874058
7/1/1980 0.705607652
8/1/1980 0.593898508
9/1/1980 0.419010196
10/1/1980 0.327755696
11/1/1980 0.361277607
12/1/1980 0.514026811
1/1/1981 0.677842286
2/1/1981 0.452516905
3/1/1981 0.345918999
4/1/1981 0.294070173
5/1/1981 0.371723611
6/1/1981 0.524209272
7/1/1981 0.388606501
8/1/1981 0.339654608
9/1/1981 0.418252937
10/1/1981 0.395937406
11/1/1981 0.379370584
12/1/1981 0.456900525
1/1/1982 0.514126059
2/1/1982 0.371023824
3/1/1982 0.171435747
4/1/1982 0.110884434
5/1/1982 0.155671179
6/1/1982 0.161990295
7/1/1982 0.016745611
8/1/1982 -0.003444619
9/1/1982 0.072315029
10/1/1982 0.126404162
11/1/1982 0.170487783
12/1/1982 0.257932271
1/1/1983 0.653869384
2/1/1983 0.381198585
3/1/1983 0.18228061
4/1/1983 0.075603257
5/1/1983 0.149479024
6/1/1983 0.329174655
7/1/1983 0.228609947
8/1/1983 0.143694648
9/1/1983 0.112209054
10/1/1983 0.076562432
11/1/1983 -0.017766188
12/1/1983 -0.059695395
1/1/1984 0.046548531
2/1/1984 -0.115880672
3/1/1984 -0.28796127
4/1/1984 -0.306733222
5/1/1984 -0.257592497
6/1/1984 -0.365701346
7/1/1984 -0.471749374
8/1/1984 -0.57649965
9/1/1984 -0.690067698
10/1/1984 -0.741791946
11/1/1984 -0.850864279
12/1/1984 -0.862002196
1/1/1985 -0.85523537
2/1/1985 -0.978879249
3/1/1985 -0.960206627
4/1/1985 -0.995882644
5/1/1985 -0.946356662
6/1/1985 -0.805392412
7/1/1985 -0.760524757
8/1/1985 -0.699496803
9/1/1985 -0.619422498
10/1/1985 -0.660711989
11/1/1985 -0.69183421
12/1/1985 -0.595593124
1/1/1986 -0.307493462
2/1/1986 -0.351845298
3/1/1986 -0.62263219
4/1/1986 -0.749937935
5/1/1986 -0.805887083
6/1/1986 -0.763574656
7/1/1986 -0.851174863
8/1/1986 -0.815445458
9/1/1986 -0.772973192
10/1/1986 -0.825019353
11/1/1986 -0.823399451
12/1/1986 -0.67483206
1/1/1987 -0.638862698
2/1/1987 -0.708173022
3/1/1987 -0.803115782
4/1/1987 -0.761332694
5/1/1987 -0.742678684
6/1/1987 -0.757592127
7/1/1987 -0.802417122
8/1/1987 -0.788331655
9/1/1987 -0.76810213
10/1/1987 -0.752203909
11/1/1987 -0.828368216
12/1/1987 -0.85863604
1/1/1988 -0.870230369
2/1/1988 -0.884842684
3/1/1988 -0.798714042
4/1/1988 -0.776233254
5/1/1988 -0.723259869
6/1/1988 -0.64775959
7/1/1988 -0.747884734
8/1/1988 -0.70331928
9/1/1988 -0.86114418
10/1/1988 -0.87511096
11/1/1988 -0.881668978
12/1/1988 -0.776947452
1/1/1989 -0.585072856
2/1/1989 -0.576129658
3/1/1989 -0.632686963
4/1/1989 -0.633900224
5/1/1989 -0.613311145
6/1/1989 -0.510196092
7/1/1989 -0.530690332
8/1/1989 -0.466459696
9/1/1989 -0.360080281
10/1/1989 -0.38108553
11/1/1989 -0.25413602
12/1/1989 0.036531917
1/1/1990 0.695805746
2/1/1990 0.144542554
3/1/1990 -0.109458624
4/1/1990 -0.15239693
5/1/1990 -0.275513616
6/1/1990 -0.336758752
7/1/1990 -0.359298811
8/1/1990 -0.37234183
9/1/1990 -0.403647483
10/1/1990 -0.401518235
11/1/1990 -0.306891633
12/1/1990 -0.237789261
1/1/1991 -0.1000885
2/1/1991 -0.12159944
3/1/1991 -0.083179626
4/1/1991 -0.171973355
5/1/1991 -0.17040135
6/1/1991 -0.270657791
7/1/1991 -0.380087378
8/1/1991 -0.426960684
9/1/1991 -0.456867199
10/1/1991 -0.45633385
11/1/1991 -0.454185991
12/1/1991 -0.351666203
1/1/1992 -0.27971134
2/1/1992 -0.379575632
3/1/1992 -0.489016475
4/1/1992 -0.490957254
5/1/1992 -0.527881145
6/1/1992 -0.497498761
7/1/1992 -0.594990958
8/1/1992 -0.589203981
9/1/1992 -0.587628539
10/1/1992 -0.516322102
11/1/1992 -0.605522091
12/1/1992 -0.615326542
1/1/1993 -0.634175758
2/1/1993 -0.70600276
3/1/1993 -0.721509123
4/1/1993 -0.65715529
5/1/1993 -0.600068864
6/1/1993 -0.621043055
7/1/1993 -0.618653857
8/1/1993 -0.710645376
9/1/1993 -0.716564924
10/1/1993 -0.782211955
11/1/1993 -0.797175804
12/1/1993 -0.742800708
1/1/1994 -0.650125385
2/1/1994 -0.772155654
3/1/1994 -0.823204708
4/1/1994 -0.919482789
5/1/1994 -0.87540436
6/1/1994 -0.889273864
7/1/1994 -0.968331332
8/1/1994 -0.880332603
9/1/1994 -0.897239649
10/1/1994 -0.924374082
11/1/1994 -0.928592645
12/1/1994 -0.894092347
1/1/1995 -0.836611609
2/1/1995 -0.789082685
3/1/1995 -0.807553454
4/1/1995 -0.71538084
5/1/1995 -0.636117337
6/1/1995 -0.756150365
7/1/1995 -0.78799384
8/1/1995 -0.85535323
9/1/1995 -0.847682709
10/1/1995 -0.891129096
11/1/1995 -0.833568574
12/1/1995 -0.724262312
1/1/1996 -0.58079585
2/1/1996 -0.531301553
3/1/1996 -0.568999223
4/1/1996 -0.568958672
5/1/1996 -0.611975651
6/1/1996 -0.564496133
7/1/1996 -0.556879119
8/1/1996 -0.625616581
9/1/1996 -0.7687371
10/1/1996 -0.844617454
11/1/1996 -0.888743862
12/1/1996 -0.916979795
1/1/1997 -0.826483245
2/1/1997 -0.811915772
3/1/1997 -0.811658812
4/1/1997 -0.905168375
5/1/1997 -0.955163743
6/1/1997 -0.952773209
7/1/1997 -0.974124201
8/1/1997 -0.940519997
9/1/1997 -0.901323523
10/1/1997 -0.870764554
11/1/1997 -0.892132548
12/1/1997 -0.94107713
1/1/1998 -0.954917058
2/1/1998 -0.9978561
3/1/1998 -0.929281576
4/1/1998 -0.803065731
5/1/1998 -0.854248028
6/1/1998 -0.855260464
7/1/1998 -0.864409051
8/1/1998 -0.816392203
9/1/1998 -0.792184009
10/1/1998 -0.817204014
11/1/1998 -0.740613644
12/1/1998 -0.734703334
1/1/1999 -0.604194852
2/1/1999 -0.707486818
3/1/1999 -0.740533425
4/1/1999 -0.787334521
5/1/1999 -0.804588802
6/1/1999 -0.788824507
7/1/1999 -0.797903768
8/1/1999 -0.757604056
9/1/1999 -0.657343686
10/1/1999 -0.605905884
11/1/1999 -0.432205875
12/1/1999 -0.073126708
1/1/2000 0.79260051
2/1/2000 0.285681671
3/1/2000 0.037956786
4/1/2000 -0.052317628
5/1/2000 -0.060692283
6/1/2000 -0.210634463
7/1/2000 -0.238155553
8/1/2000 -0.375069206
9/1/2000 -0.442861105
10/1/2000 -0.525452523
11/1/2000 -0.493700505
12/1/2000 -0.357504177
1/1/2001 -0.297105829
2/1/2001 -0.353937932
3/1/2001 -0.287608044
4/1/2001 -0.104277087
5/1/2001 -0.015017418
6/1/2001 0.005400494
7/1/2001 0.065274614
8/1/2001 0.309919651
9/1/2001 0.354674119
10/1/2001 0.430992191
11/1/2001 0.160899004
12/1/2001 0.043627893
1/1/2002 -0.009648111
2/1/2002 -0.107132943
3/1/2002 -0.189453255
4/1/2002 -0.299097023
5/1/2002 -0.3802621
6/1/2002 -0.401389301
7/1/2002 -0.437488734
8/1/2002 -0.480320617
9/1/2002 -0.432286339
10/1/2002 -0.389874236
11/1/2002 -0.263010646
12/1/2002 -0.213009459
1/1/2003 -0.00563892
2/1/2003 -0.234727452
3/1/2003 -0.274995078
4/1/2003 -0.312099037
5/1/2003 -0.367415315
6/1/2003 -0.354286321
7/1/2003 -0.335733114
8/1/2003 -0.376608317
9/1/2003 -0.448248941
10/1/2003 -0.468885399
11/1/2003 -0.476619673
12/1/2003 -0.35470841
1/1/2004 -0.114721581
2/1/2004 -0.294238153
3/1/2004 -0.375614093
4/1/2004 -0.384000267
5/1/2004 -0.416026228
6/1/2004 -0.454164288
7/1/2004 -0.490749473
8/1/2004 -0.490991704
9/1/2004 -0.49108697
10/1/2004 -0.468827901
11/1/2004 -0.498481802
12/1/2004 -0.503216239
1/1/2005 -0.50666696
2/1/2005 -0.49268226
3/1/2005 -0.478640562
4/1/2005 -0.458768399
5/1/2005 -0.474207154
6/1/2005 -0.406708074
7/1/2005 -0.33783544
8/1/2005 -0.207466149
9/1/2005 -0.04574759
10/1/2005 -0.118267133
11/1/2005 -0.152604028
12/1/2005 -0.190031691
1/1/2006 -0.226756812
2/1/2006 -0.336587348
3/1/2006 -0.420634758
4/1/2006 -0.407698616
5/1/2006 -0.474617905
6/1/2006 -0.51010108
7/1/2006 -0.489422944
8/1/2006 -0.483270794
9/1/2006 -0.41538102
10/1/2006 -0.399828933
11/1/2006 -0.402004523
12/1/2006 -0.260604646
1/1/2007 -0.093458746
2/1/2007 -0.125794809
3/1/2007 -0.154158495
4/1/2007 -0.056659279
5/1/2007 -0.15754429
6/1/2007 -0.225043807
7/1/2007 -0.262734712
8/1/2007 -0.223954635
9/1/2007 -0.197992985
10/1/2007 -0.179976081
11/1/2007 -0.058082375
12/1/2007 0.091436379
1/1/2008 0.369349633
2/1/2008 0.353054654
3/1/2008 0.327875329
4/1/2008 0.500413211
5/1/2008 0.702195017
6/1/2008 0.685496478
7/1/2008 0.860553656
8/1/2008 1.059645453
9/1/2008 1.37263574
10/1/2008 1.571999735
11/1/2008 1.725128858
12/1/2008 1.828488123
1/1/2009 1.837956205
2/1/2009 1.459057127
3/1/2009 1.241864771
4/1/2009 1.033624523
5/1/2009 0.86184239
6/1/2009 0.706124516
7/1/2009 0.61483663
8/1/2009 0.65878788
9/1/2009 0.617825422
10/1/2009 0.482257609
11/1/2009 0.378403327
12/1/2009 0.417524256
1/1/2010 0.437671461
2/1/2010 0.291496352
3/1/2010 0.277671453
4/1/2010 0.345412873
5/1/2010 0.355845548
6/1/2010 0.305567008
7/1/2010 0.102590053
8/1/2010 0.01380338
9/1/2010 -0.012998675
10/1/2010 0.116584782
11/1/2010 0.176091419
12/1/2010 0.320928971
1/1/2011 0.522029773
2/1/2011 0.250143835
3/1/2011 0.119902823
4/1/2011 0.059065402
5/1/2011 0.016517309
6/1/2011 0.009238583
7/1/2011 -0.047185042
8/1/2011 -0.050423419
9/1/2011 -0.071285278
10/1/2011 -0.081108686
11/1/2011 -0.020642193
12/1/2011 0.129940922
1/1/2012 0.270729123
2/1/2012 -0.015324283
3/1/2012 -0.169531741
4/1/2012 -0.223535646
5/1/2012 -0.239171207
6/1/2012 -0.267808327
7/1/2012 -0.197821791
8/1/2012 -0.104153171
9/1/2012 -0.052177229
10/1/2012 -0.082304753
11/1/2012 -0.104064615
12/1/2012 -0.122610739
1/1/2013 -0.078299199
2/1/2013 -0.114997052
3/1/2013 -0.134243236
4/1/2013 -0.20114156
5/1/2013 -0.243964341
6/1/2013 -0.252438245
7/1/2013 -0.224923274
8/1/2013 -0.167767103
9/1/2013 -0.109561146
10/1/2013 0.084053894
11/1/2013 0.181343302
12/1/2013 0.161931497
1/1/2014 0.21051057
2/1/2014 0.14930563
3/1/2014 0.138006347
4/1/2014 0.145110897
5/1/2014 0.075791199
6/1/2014 0.040613644
7/1/2014 0.088196038
8/1/2014 0.034176332
9/1/2014 0.021612955
10/1/2014 0.026727793
11/1/2014 0.015558472
12/1/2014 0.134996889
1/1/2015 0.250003736
2/1/2015 0.168646226
3/1/2015 0.108516893
4/1/2015 0.037473771
5/1/2015 -0.020024588
6/1/2015 -0.018921469
7/1/2015 -0.083805386
8/1/2015 -0.232975242
9/1/2015 -0.261569148
10/1/2015 -0.353661398
11/1/2015 -0.33662599
12/1/2015 -0.27962282
1/1/2016 -0.159398213
2/1/2016 -0.253308071
3/1/2016 -0.297194222
4/1/2016 -0.330694249
5/1/2016 -0.396487071
6/1/2016 -0.484200147
7/1/2016 -0.505647724
8/1/2016 -0.415038977
9/1/2016 -0.357855621
10/1/2016 -0.427525936
11/1/2016 -0.429117953
12/1/2016 -0.401511207
1/1/2017 -0.231630074
2/1/2017 -0.337782207
3/1/2017 -0.308980175
4/1/2017 -0.311430126
5/1/2017 -0.363986041
6/1/2017 -0.392805184
7/1/2017 -0.387861858
8/1/2017 -0.265013414
9/1/2017 -0.136726865
10/1/2017 -0.058823277
11/1/2017 -0.142164043
12/1/2017 -0.143146793
1/1/2018 -0.042473545
2/1/2018 -0.051494607
3/1/2018 -0.089782923
4/1/2018 -0.101127375
5/1/2018 -0.133470931
6/1/2018 -0.167386328
7/1/2018 -0.155971712
8/1/2018 -0.04164966
9/1/2018 -0.130970682
10/1/2018 -0.120730168
11/1/2018 -0.1332243
12/1/2018 -0.05430714
1/1/2019 0.093344236
2/1/2019 -0.010328642
3/1/2019 0.039668945
4/1/2019 0.084263011
5/1/2019 0.058111056
6/1/2019 0.097556589
7/1/2019 0.2266276
8/1/2019 0.360572892
9/1/2019 0.512765408
10/1/2019 0.737958563
11/1/2019 1.088554625
12/1/2019 2.194063783
1/1/2020 2.51833085
2/1/2020 3.000765761
3/1/2020 4.107195979
4/1/2020 7.344819257
5/1/2020 6.996607165
6/1/2020 3.820681978
7/1/2020 3.683995917
8/1/2020 3.275994543
9/1/2020 3.053047687
10/1/2020 2.902663888
11/1/2020 2.923527374
12/1/2020 3.024575569
1/1/2021 3.301071619
2/1/2021 3.528779651
3/1/2021 3.939966104
4/1/2021 4.443382388
5/1/2021 4.23187015
6/1/2021 3.980902732
7/1/2021 3.732459112
8/1/2021 3.588647524
9/1/2021 3.617947054
10/1/2021 3.614569305
11/1/2021 3.534171079
12/1/2021 3.472661137
1/1/2022 3.529189184
2/1/2022 3.42572366
3/1/2022 3.467373759
4/1/2022 3.356319542
5/1/2022 3.409891366
6/1/2022 3.537089634
7/1/2022 3.673483414
8/1/2022 3.686089242
9/1/2022 3.593963633
10/1/2022 3.464548034
11/1/2022 3.368506727
12/1/2022 3.436464619
1/1/2023 3.323342462
2/1/2023 3.2515421
3/1/2023 3.389395971

Note: Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023)'s U.S. aggregate economic uncertainty (EU). Series standardized over its historical mean (July 1960 to March 2023). The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extend from April 1960 to February 1961, December 1969 to November 1970, November 1973 to March 1975, January 1980 to July 1980, July 1981 to November 1982, July 1990 to March 1991, March 2001 to November 2001, December 2007 to June 2009, and February 2020 to April 2020.

Source: Main Economic Indicators via OECD; Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023).

Figure 3: U.S. Economic Uncertainty: Components

This is a line chart titled “Figure 3: U.S. Economic Uncertainty: Components”. The x axis ranges from 2000 to 2024 in yearly units. The Y axis ranges from -3 to 11 in standard deviations. The data is monthly. There are three variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled inflation; is designated by solid medium width black line; and ranges from -1.5 to 4 standard deviations. This variable consistently oscillates between -2 and 2 standard deviations from 2000 to 2020, before sharply rising to about 4 standard deviations and then plateauing. The second variable is labeled labor; is designated by solid thin red line; and ranges from -3 to 9 standard deviations. This variable consistently oscillates between -2 and 3 standard deviations from 2000 to 2020, before sharply rising to about 8 standard deviations and then sharply decreasing down to about 0 to -0.5 standard deviations. The third line is labeled output; is designated by solid thick blue line; and ranges from -2 to 11 standard deviations. This variable consistently oscillates between -1 and 2 standard deviations from 2000 to 2020, before sharply rising to about 11 standard deviations and then sharply decreasing to -1 standard deviations.

Note: Inflation, labor, and output subcomponents of Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023)'s U.S. aggregate economic uncertainty (EU). Series standardized over its historical mean (July 1960 to April 2023). The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extend from March 2001 to November 2001, December 2007 to June 2009, and February 2020 to April 2020.

Source: Main Economic Indicators via OECD; Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023).

Figure 3: U.S. Economic Uncertainty: Components Data

Standard Deviations

Date Inflation Labor Output
1/1/2000 1.314015741 -2.433015492 -0.704162878
2/1/2000 0.448436835 -2.338609823 -0.826744261
3/1/2000 0.028160583 -2.291405218 -0.998232054
4/1/2000 -0.393311092 -2.242215931 -1.013537474
5/1/2000 -0.697401477 -2.169603523 -1.154845826
6/1/2000 -0.878531695 -2.052668438 -1.04679955
7/1/2000 -0.960230833 -1.972042861 -0.863914936
8/1/2000 -0.989642034 -1.872609785 -0.598931203
9/1/2000 -1.090241705 -1.794481517 -0.584129369
10/1/2000 -1.090512488 -1.63142404 -0.619277312
11/1/2000 -1.079101791 -1.377000466 -0.540107092
12/1/2000 -0.984546203 -1.112569989 -0.428116179
1/1/2001 -0.954623561 -0.746257127 -0.52993319
2/1/2001 -0.904871506 -0.797725081 -0.729753881
3/1/2001 -0.820148396 -0.684538772 -0.793740954
4/1/2001 -0.63150256 -0.645868639 -0.894597436
5/1/2001 -0.418806202 -0.629607701 -0.856300038
6/1/2001 -0.498164155 -0.563035981 -0.835803351
7/1/2001 -0.46530595 -0.422662635 -0.767591307
8/1/2001 -0.331103376 -0.355855484 -0.74011815
9/1/2001 -0.249829078 -0.452712844 -0.705442196
10/1/2001 -0.008711067 -0.541066423 -0.724595438
11/1/2001 -0.319242398 -0.539907036 -0.706710818
12/1/2001 -0.5001178 -0.514398001 -0.691234197
1/1/2002 -0.723950106 -0.493566383 -0.528838345
2/1/2002 -0.895964453 -0.453520199 -0.446772564
3/1/2002 -0.922245601 -0.502937591 -0.535106954
4/1/2002 -0.992382862 -0.549413618 -0.537245513
5/1/2002 -1.015545836 -0.691803743 -0.564311109
6/1/2002 -0.990858411 -0.652136235 -0.493064242
7/1/2002 -1.077009792 -0.571761492 -0.594952027
8/1/2002 -1.151326763 -0.408840418 -0.710636715
9/1/2002 -1.087007134 -0.305479885 -0.856580621
10/1/2002 -0.933718027 -0.19955035 -0.783151082
11/1/2002 -0.830775838 0.025877094 -0.652265881
12/1/2002 -0.689150541 0.173174319 -0.542110408
1/1/2003 -0.327837449 0.148996314 -0.637591471
2/1/2003 -0.579508179 0.058389779 -0.722228897
3/1/2003 -0.604018436 0.063892416 -0.834582942
4/1/2003 -0.573714624 0.177484736 -0.863334202
5/1/2003 -0.702507132 0.346099356 -0.883082278
6/1/2003 -0.731558061 0.454292367 -0.812824887
7/1/2003 -0.749639061 0.520546501 -0.756571088
8/1/2003 -0.74418525 0.332108145 -0.609319789
9/1/2003 -0.847386278 0.198300882 -0.559069244
10/1/2003 -0.807417949 0.107402352 -0.534943374
11/1/2003 -0.720999797 -0.047445238 -0.565355205
12/1/2003 -0.443982363 -0.135858905 -0.404302351
1/1/2004 -0.051742137 -0.218725263 -0.522196926
2/1/2004 -0.436539102 -0.206957335 -0.542225796
3/1/2004 -0.741717628 -0.176293458 -0.432085231
4/1/2004 -0.863365919 0.016496918 -0.510092939
5/1/2004 -0.890932319 0.170169964 -0.391712308
6/1/2004 -0.888919786 0.470448319 -0.186631973
7/1/2004 -0.929669744 0.576889177 -0.195387077
8/1/2004 -0.935333254 0.61069501 -0.393044465
9/1/2004 -0.877429169 0.777786792 -0.507744722
10/1/2004 -0.785647384 0.958082878 -0.4077226
11/1/2004 -0.877844231 1.243340605 -0.566482474
12/1/2004 -0.973119737 1.225772132 -0.552052997
1/1/2005 -1.15448943 1.09484971 -0.523614791
2/1/2005 -1.242290537 0.764594935 -0.42175148
3/1/2005 -1.195851732 0.505264891 -0.534884004
4/1/2005 -1.199456862 0.394601073 -0.663254202
5/1/2005 -1.153825211 0.266892844 -0.634296957
6/1/2005 -1.008864091 0.146615208 -0.558877254
7/1/2005 -0.779834418 -0.054440107 -0.47959712
8/1/2005 -0.420111395 -0.248116451 -0.185875242
9/1/2005 0.084524988 -0.289724148 0.321450256
10/1/2005 -0.175801707 -0.379835934 0.387798431
11/1/2005 -0.259024907 -0.457742293 0.038664202
12/1/2005 -0.399146944 -0.519039317 -0.283869731
1/1/2006 -0.607097455 -0.62866238 -0.311026266
2/1/2006 -0.724596021 -0.544738997 -0.448881032
3/1/2006 -0.813707043 -0.448420531 -0.670736314
4/1/2006 -0.897634271 -0.48839505 -0.745314719
5/1/2006 -1.010131757 -0.512878351 -0.857382241
6/1/2006 -1.038315943 -0.54262074 -0.804416458
7/1/2006 -0.903745194 -0.497114579 -0.889712705
8/1/2006 -0.807997402 -0.612418313 -0.946593999
9/1/2006 -0.750046978 -0.816703659 -0.995664692
10/1/2006 -0.759991716 -0.907645462 -0.971343323
11/1/2006 -0.802229809 -1.147966277 -0.789265775
12/1/2006 -0.752422112 -1.31437448 -0.32411561
1/1/2007 -0.598223178 -1.412776555 -0.244797086
2/1/2007 -0.473386948 -1.444633018 -0.239862112
3/1/2007 -0.541146122 -1.421427865 -0.276956578
4/1/2007 -0.471478724 -1.360011169 -0.254904641
5/1/2007 -0.377282774 -1.409213707 -0.382108752
6/1/2007 -0.335003074 -1.525114721 -0.538528379
7/1/2007 -0.348136271 -1.598555611 -0.525474672
8/1/2007 -0.284976724 -1.630741203 -0.564096301
9/1/2007 -0.270449944 -1.658877991 -0.393964685
10/1/2007 -0.36140874 -1.663935791 -0.365157761
11/1/2007 -0.270108961 -1.637398876 -0.332374783
12/1/2007 -0.079125907 -1.592464341 -0.545686741
1/1/2008 0.256826473 -1.455581042 -0.462982093
2/1/2008 0.341724442 -1.313118938 -0.368033269
3/1/2008 0.384215185 -1.199116127 -0.261922268
4/1/2008 0.559655278 -0.949894055 -0.327705399
5/1/2008 0.74152 -0.737073359 -0.313209418
6/1/2008 0.769694343 -0.440564453 0.038367508
7/1/2008 0.982901498 -0.290394149 0.587953405
8/1/2008 1.094147379 -0.107376477 1.129315287
9/1/2008 1.375749411 0.183435408 2.162139108
10/1/2008 1.228432106 0.464008176 2.191499065
11/1/2008 1.232574838 0.624982421 1.82151275
12/1/2008 1.263288913 0.767304035 1.67980589
1/1/2009 0.923342633 0.900875321 1.273591118
2/1/2009 0.72626803 0.886232201 1.007615273
3/1/2009 0.361148201 1.030966164 0.844997924
4/1/2009 0.289053661 1.259221845 0.701648647
5/1/2009 0.140560337 1.457585736 0.501724356
6/1/2009 0.12038518 1.484692157 0.368534972
7/1/2009 0.140699533 1.366822248 0.432760889
8/1/2009 0.239344112 1.3065809 0.180920514
9/1/2009 0.226060039 1.298232856 0.02071403
10/1/2009 0.018450928 1.382853007 -0.113468976
11/1/2009 0.019478116 1.408060158 0.030686271
12/1/2009 0.003024722 1.547164115 0.120746139
1/1/2010 0.056889213 1.756123216 0.211454074
2/1/2010 0.04031805 1.895408063 0.346756116
3/1/2010 0.065295104 2.054417327 0.121763888
4/1/2010 0.18672461 2.256829887 -0.019895094
5/1/2010 0.326924333 2.154133958 -0.006556408
6/1/2010 0.336327106 2.071211599 -0.27658179
7/1/2010 0.080197677 1.734199663 -0.302518461
8/1/2010 -0.034057487 1.527947306 -0.479985936
9/1/2010 -0.104190413 1.267715214 -0.539817553
10/1/2010 0.018792138 1.083288765 -0.486537572
11/1/2010 0.206831697 0.756055251 -0.290086763
12/1/2010 0.449333799 0.613757582 -0.319584478
1/1/2011 0.698018311 0.459936922 -0.401312356
2/1/2011 0.445094803 0.298229764 -0.38358395
3/1/2011 0.284959824 0.142542099 -0.420208852
4/1/2011 0.116876466 0.127509138 -0.440958829
5/1/2011 0.030400097 0.211293194 -0.417195572
6/1/2011 -0.154137364 0.249099166 -0.366005307
7/1/2011 -0.217960667 0.197322127 -0.47841246
8/1/2011 -0.217453873 0.148404741 -0.661211109
9/1/2011 -0.164942013 0.195393542 -0.699758821
10/1/2011 0.016281234 -0.133023449 -0.800921117
11/1/2011 0.420260089 -0.417848231 -0.74314438
12/1/2011 1.022584185 -0.61434484 -0.756320537
1/1/2012 0.666661463 -0.731123682 -0.815866399
2/1/2012 0.544480047 -0.72704467 -0.754878946
3/1/2012 0.338739351 -0.961647325 -0.39310271
4/1/2012 0.251305103 -1.199303804 -0.373878404
5/1/2012 0.266208841 -1.398964795 -0.521296601
6/1/2012 0.261468086 -1.576154288 -0.655432215
7/1/2012 0.281487852 -1.643742392 -0.76689857
8/1/2012 0.408115228 -1.686175069 -0.791337133
9/1/2012 0.329056566 -1.711879842 -0.794609
10/1/2012 0.159745681 -1.707479157 -0.869013536
11/1/2012 0.036933882 -1.672521768 -0.792799026
12/1/2012 -0.073121546 -1.68894202 -0.768401948
1/1/2013 -0.099207117 -1.678288868 -0.712256972
2/1/2013 -0.074552439 -1.690630007 -0.668585784
3/1/2013 -0.056050745 -1.641331724 -0.807754684
4/1/2013 -0.079580039 -1.647992242 -0.813066838
5/1/2013 -0.064101192 -1.583175362 -0.802458896
6/1/2013 -0.121511526 -1.486305408 -0.76068092
7/1/2013 -0.185585319 -1.35669178 -0.576792795
8/1/2013 -0.138762173 -1.365318472 -0.642143181
9/1/2013 -0.255863565 -1.350207391 -0.740002671
10/1/2013 -0.361160955 -1.259251477 -0.864534979
11/1/2013 -0.312141615 -1.1914427 -0.71828409
12/1/2013 -0.331657228 -1.120470211 -0.466519438
1/1/2014 -0.296636011 -1.156721838 -0.184147719
2/1/2014 -0.236160353 -1.080141753 -0.075735984
3/1/2014 -0.173634985 -1.142563584 -0.55049598
4/1/2014 -0.12857568 -1.129052932 -0.640226618
5/1/2014 -0.227236197 -1.114117053 -0.764797658
6/1/2014 -0.320679008 -1.018447033 -0.774481195
7/1/2014 -0.350038475 -0.86515562 -0.753178059
8/1/2014 -0.398014906 -0.802550256 -0.758396416
9/1/2014 -0.417870167 -0.710311381 -0.896252817
10/1/2014 -0.389060624 -0.705717414 -0.834463264
11/1/2014 -0.249392048 -0.734438398 -0.604149612
12/1/2014 0.002060133 -0.749221638 -0.6488737
1/1/2015 0.195129157 -0.732038587 -0.73835819
2/1/2015 0.042706567 -0.661045262 -0.793945487
3/1/2015 -0.050362438 -0.579990044 -0.587063628
4/1/2015 -0.104925163 -0.576464797 -0.551476758
5/1/2015 -0.137396596 -0.47090989 -0.616764746
6/1/2015 -0.240517516 -0.381766087 -0.572226012
7/1/2015 -0.365714329 -0.265608149 -0.231629299
8/1/2015 -0.404256886 -0.292154662 -0.584241898
9/1/2015 -0.367857465 -0.472879117 -0.631386502
10/1/2015 -0.401288074 -0.537030769 -0.63192788
11/1/2015 -0.301068171 -0.702567706 -0.670795637
12/1/2015 -0.209633048 -0.770883656 -0.638399773
1/1/2016 -0.030574016 -0.821314537 -0.360357925
2/1/2016 -0.099866169 -0.880559769 -0.464576141
3/1/2016 -0.206662598 -0.876238237 -0.366590627
4/1/2016 -0.18938102 -0.88813219 -0.259418953
5/1/2016 -0.257850146 -0.858349035 -0.587243739
6/1/2016 -0.380692015 -0.832867796 -0.663026233
7/1/2016 -0.307545584 -0.797054174 -0.861481036
8/1/2016 -0.195052149 -0.699278536 -0.844452522
9/1/2016 -0.12603855 -0.630096047 -0.831457146
10/1/2016 -0.240202561 -0.582092981 -0.849659781
11/1/2016 -0.249262326 -0.645646544 -0.748397769
12/1/2016 -0.194417034 -0.699861799 -0.460818363
1/1/2017 -0.145240486 -0.665395337 -0.440308194
2/1/2017 -0.09870746 -0.763950726 -0.446050307
3/1/2017 -0.107357236 -0.921991989 -0.372561234
4/1/2017 -0.088528198 -0.97909073 -0.129807282
5/1/2017 -0.179118724 -1.034787878 -0.266672118
6/1/2017 -0.227698716 -1.173698829 -0.225404508
7/1/2017 -0.204532608 -1.277032128 -0.252663448
8/1/2017 -0.193885083 -1.375552575 -0.265363568
9/1/2017 -0.159168258 -1.435763193 0.042913627
10/1/2017 -0.163158041 -1.456995302 0.259888962
11/1/2017 -0.146336955 -1.483921844 -0.159341384
12/1/2017 -0.095102245 -1.565558842 -0.293047579
1/1/2018 -0.067932423 -1.642090813 -0.225079739
2/1/2018 0.017789453 -1.68687616 -0.153888061
3/1/2018 0.039954324 -1.738264561 0.039620243
4/1/2018 0.11857465 -1.72585734 0.315930311
5/1/2018 0.075439148 -1.745214538 0.331200225
6/1/2018 -0.008888804 -1.747306624 0.046703566
7/1/2018 -0.006032109 -1.676532758 -0.262320059
8/1/2018 0.057092986 -1.525732066 -0.441940041
9/1/2018 0.137572159 -1.442213237 -0.635791504
10/1/2018 0.190596596 -1.377883095 -0.700874625
11/1/2018 0.254884054 -1.365231543 -0.628714528
12/1/2018 0.246074818 -1.34479771 -0.605618128
1/1/2019 0.296337642 -1.274366375 -0.812646576
2/1/2019 0.459885495 -1.235212844 -0.906644629
3/1/2019 0.612322927 -1.204012152 -0.859566392
4/1/2019 0.588475658 -1.093726987 -0.698189025
5/1/2019 0.600303794 -0.983825328 -0.731675785
6/1/2019 0.592196295 -0.845253344 -0.789396379
7/1/2019 0.644794567 -0.615790454 -0.731478217
8/1/2019 0.763134521 -0.393112465 -0.493811939
9/1/2019 0.828997227 -0.180684113 -0.533156173
10/1/2019 0.968659878 0.166414105 -0.447948703
11/1/2019 1.127533049 0.3941682 -0.131798832
12/1/2019 1.297861128 0.693427269 0.501204318
1/1/2020 1.635416941 1.154404685 1.460553811
2/1/2020 2.137622454 1.598393326 2.896062216
3/1/2020 3.289395145 2.116126479 6.289848792
4/1/2020 3.820305882 8.074378433 10.39640778
5/1/2020 3.457823755 8.132585512 8.750449414
6/1/2020 2.991139552 2.532487188 7.05773988
7/1/2020 2.848851977 2.058740624 4.943100912
8/1/2020 2.424130352 1.511954064 3.547329722
9/1/2020 2.192046939 1.075097335 2.452411467
10/1/2020 2.035500281 0.72178699 2.094195914
11/1/2020 2.057218771 0.561200663 1.884204638
12/1/2020 2.162408009 0.383286173 1.713549568
1/1/2021 2.450235108 0.369194501 2.030406263
2/1/2021 2.687274813 0.484622377 2.72321699
3/1/2021 3.115312045 0.504877956 3.142472822
4/1/2021 3.639358766 0.105844983 2.31219468
5/1/2021 3.419178573 -0.161667991 1.280530499
6/1/2021 3.157926292 -0.406139223 0.415009139
7/1/2021 2.899301235 -0.534775799 0.243197766
8/1/2021 2.749596124 -0.606068922 0.085528735
9/1/2021 2.780096374 -0.636127767 0.042145838
10/1/2021 2.776580202 -0.642862199 0.107653044
11/1/2021 2.692887186 -0.650086067 -0.308492708
12/1/2021 2.628856514 -0.562360324 -0.572454139
1/1/2022 2.687701129 -0.696949029 -0.532813835
2/1/2022 2.579995498 -0.732705614 -0.685770072
3/1/2022 2.623352454 -0.761074864 -0.862725899
4/1/2022 2.507747139 -0.735078069 -1.170339622
5/1/2022 2.563514382 -0.68472348 -1.203845738
6/1/2022 2.695925346 -0.56838667 -1.105560922
7/1/2022 2.837908662 -0.369641837 -1.064344494
8/1/2022 2.851031088 -0.327338969 -1.043542704
9/1/2022 2.755130092 -0.340414482 -0.980297795
10/1/2022 2.620410928 -0.278894187 -0.925566
11/1/2022 2.520433765 -0.163519879 -0.698637788
12/1/2022 2.591176631 -0.093443888 -0.485824533
1/1/2023 2.47341863 -0.245778078 -0.246145917
2/1/2023 2.398675826 -0.287049276 -0.298936826
3/1/2023 2.542179069 -0.386972294 -0.473174372

Note: Inflation, labor, and output subcomponents of Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023)'s U.S. aggregate economic uncertainty (EU). Series standardized over its historical mean (July 1960 to April 2023). The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extend from March 2001 to November 2001, December 2007 to June 2009, and February 2020 to April 2020.

Source: Main Economic Indicators via OECD; Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023).

Figure 4.1: Foreign Economic Uncertainty: Aggregate

This is a line chart titled “Figure 4.1: Foreign Economic Uncertainty: Aggregate”. The x axis ranges from 2000 to 2024 in yearly units. The Y axis ranges from -2 to 9 in standard deviations. The data is monthly. There is one variable charted on the plot. The line is labeled Standard Deviation of Foreign Economic Uncertainty; and is designated by a solid red line. This variable oscillates between -1 and 1 in a consistent manner from 1960 to 2020, except in 2009 in which it rises quickly to 3 but then drops just as quickly to 1. In 2020, the variable increases very sharply, up to roughly 8.3 for about 3 months. It then sharply decreases to 3.5 and then begins oscillating in the same pattern as prior, bounded by 2 and 4.

Note: Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023)'s foreign aggregate economic uncertainty (EU) Foreign EU series are the equally-weighted average across non-U.S. countries. Series are standardized over their historical means (July 1960 to March 2023). The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extend from March 2001 to November 2001, December 2007 to June 2009, and February 2020 to April 2020.

Source: Main Economic Indicators via OECD; Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023).

Figure 4.1: Foreign Economic Uncertainty: Aggregate Data
Date Standard deviation of aggregate
1/1/2000 -0.058824226
2/1/2000 -0.251193892
3/1/2000 -0.421757149
4/1/2000 -0.529742541
5/1/2000 -0.717843756
6/1/2000 -0.788333567
7/1/2000 -0.754232803
8/1/2000 -0.752993471
9/1/2000 -0.738300567
10/1/2000 -0.648146331
11/1/2000 -0.550702521
12/1/2000 -0.356639546
1/1/2001 -0.133540922
2/1/2001 -0.122932751
3/1/2001 -0.086745154
4/1/2001 0.070526575
5/1/2001 0.022517214
6/1/2001 -0.205948731
7/1/2001 -0.245368756
8/1/2001 -0.293650388
9/1/2001 -0.247673032
10/1/2001 -0.174531456
11/1/2001 -0.116843149
12/1/2001 -0.038505004
1/1/2002 0.037120254
2/1/2002 -0.022534933
3/1/2002 -0.135694608
4/1/2002 -0.222130418
5/1/2002 -0.338649589
6/1/2002 -0.451871934
7/1/2002 -0.519496016
8/1/2002 -0.45408214
9/1/2002 -0.569742537
10/1/2002 -0.651554661
11/1/2002 -0.621097201
12/1/2002 -0.517548941
1/1/2003 -0.345288728
2/1/2003 -0.42154719
3/1/2003 -0.508276388
4/1/2003 -0.591082767
5/1/2003 -0.70358842
6/1/2003 -0.828541712
7/1/2003 -0.889430415
8/1/2003 -0.904217759
9/1/2003 -0.921613122
10/1/2003 -0.888764179
11/1/2003 -0.843208804
12/1/2003 -0.704135907
1/1/2004 -0.553119195
2/1/2004 -0.581239418
3/1/2004 -0.629124678
4/1/2004 -0.650525241
5/1/2004 -0.662365309
6/1/2004 -0.754424328
7/1/2004 -0.865042645
8/1/2004 -0.952319866
9/1/2004 -1.051206771
10/1/2004 -1.085507615
11/1/2004 -1.034876734
12/1/2004 -0.935495001
1/1/2005 -0.872919566
2/1/2005 -0.920397861
3/1/2005 -0.942587712
4/1/2005 -0.95103189
5/1/2005 -0.989061885
6/1/2005 -1.043125765
7/1/2005 -1.055920166
8/1/2005 -1.033365761
9/1/2005 -0.98946586
10/1/2005 -0.936639513
11/1/2005 -0.934157702
12/1/2005 -0.870103506
1/1/2006 -0.828349424
2/1/2006 -0.874869858
3/1/2006 -0.885100749
4/1/2006 -0.844453224
5/1/2006 -0.830633299
6/1/2006 -0.827194081
7/1/2006 -0.938018127
8/1/2006 -1.017606388
9/1/2006 -1.013594706
10/1/2006 -0.949328488
11/1/2006 -0.950849446
12/1/2006 -0.836242958
1/1/2007 -0.708583751
2/1/2007 -0.871829812
3/1/2007 -0.977267041
4/1/2007 -1.032682567
5/1/2007 -1.124225094
6/1/2007 -1.173355025
7/1/2007 -1.174369204
8/1/2007 -1.146331636
9/1/2007 -1.067532245
10/1/2007 -0.946970253
11/1/2007 -0.841923461
12/1/2007 -0.669617774
1/1/2008 -0.42510505
2/1/2008 -0.304243485
3/1/2008 -0.185012334
4/1/2008 -0.070601207
5/1/2008 0.062642741
6/1/2008 0.20653651
7/1/2008 0.345452917
8/1/2008 0.514521182
9/1/2008 0.784522049
10/1/2008 1.215477023
11/1/2008 1.646881421
12/1/2008 3.015179623
1/1/2009 1.763321907
2/1/2009 1.432982135
3/1/2009 1.156685579
4/1/2009 0.947909597
5/1/2009 0.716621239
6/1/2009 0.466771319
7/1/2009 0.23741259
8/1/2009 0.078548212
9/1/2009 -0.039108797
10/1/2009 -0.140647814
11/1/2009 -0.139727192
12/1/2009 -0.045240727
1/1/2010 0.183386546
2/1/2010 0.346479549
3/1/2010 0.369519367
4/1/2010 0.342309232
5/1/2010 0.263606759
6/1/2010 0.265466425
7/1/2010 0.264294493
8/1/2010 0.221873914
9/1/2010 0.201345173
10/1/2010 0.200425327
11/1/2010 0.229514481
12/1/2010 0.426760919
1/1/2011 0.730946073
2/1/2011 0.602839848
3/1/2011 0.506425101
4/1/2011 0.36155207
5/1/2011 0.249746639
6/1/2011 0.169977292
7/1/2011 0.189767891
8/1/2011 0.233294253
9/1/2011 0.268183661
10/1/2011 0.273431649
11/1/2011 0.277255859
12/1/2011 0.417308591
1/1/2012 0.6581346
2/1/2012 0.512814121
3/1/2012 0.30643813
4/1/2012 0.142951793
5/1/2012 8.81E-04
6/1/2012 -0.082159446
7/1/2012 -0.137231761
8/1/2012 -0.150436703
9/1/2012 -0.090517062
10/1/2012 -0.075852222
11/1/2012 -0.104626609
12/1/2012 -0.097421704
1/1/2013 0.065827897
2/1/2013 0.019123934
3/1/2013 -0.004968244
4/1/2013 -0.027782289
5/1/2013 -0.096748818
6/1/2013 -0.1506362
7/1/2013 -0.179192239
8/1/2013 -0.218534794
9/1/2013 -0.223516623
10/1/2013 -0.240712799
11/1/2013 -0.274612112
12/1/2013 -0.247314984
1/1/2014 -0.111744083
2/1/2014 -0.190188846
3/1/2014 -0.219736326
4/1/2014 -0.226931007
5/1/2014 -0.305310991
6/1/2014 -0.341718974
7/1/2014 -0.47052734
8/1/2014 -0.478448211
9/1/2014 -0.483477111
10/1/2014 -0.51068851
11/1/2014 -0.50165199
12/1/2014 -0.367730902
1/1/2015 -0.222724475
2/1/2015 -0.269073607
3/1/2015 -0.350474035
4/1/2015 -0.414146052
5/1/2015 -0.513944284
6/1/2015 -0.590510529
7/1/2015 -0.633811034
8/1/2015 -0.652214236
9/1/2015 -0.607023547
10/1/2015 -0.608245064
11/1/2015 -0.584798482
12/1/2015 -0.52044737
1/1/2016 -0.303645484
2/1/2016 -0.365546972
3/1/2016 -0.457918005
4/1/2016 -0.516980183
5/1/2016 -0.523573383
6/1/2016 -0.416296651
7/1/2016 -0.38203195
8/1/2016 -0.35719827
9/1/2016 -0.303534492
10/1/2016 -0.277514223
11/1/2016 -0.208260574
12/1/2016 -0.113999298
1/1/2017 0.00492494
2/1/2017 -0.046101539
3/1/2017 -0.136248351
4/1/2017 -0.229986081
5/1/2017 -0.332578828
6/1/2017 -0.412556227
7/1/2017 -0.405727781
8/1/2017 -0.457616072
9/1/2017 -0.42894132
10/1/2017 -0.380294681
11/1/2017 -0.396302695
12/1/2017 -0.300617223
1/1/2018 -0.113534274
2/1/2018 -0.122395858
3/1/2018 -0.150807633
4/1/2018 -0.166240347
5/1/2018 -0.21047022
6/1/2018 -0.231633856
7/1/2018 -0.214905195
8/1/2018 -0.195714623
9/1/2018 -0.144118623
10/1/2018 -0.109641341
11/1/2018 -0.075347242
12/1/2018 -0.033912003
1/1/2019 0.057733389
2/1/2019 0.044448497
3/1/2019 0.123146013
4/1/2019 0.222568595
5/1/2019 0.193828861
6/1/2019 0.2057543
7/1/2019 0.248928072
8/1/2019 0.301044377
9/1/2019 0.414214348
10/1/2019 0.598793965
11/1/2019 0.963325877
12/1/2019 1.561046008
1/1/2020 2.530403893
2/1/2020 3.984083102
3/1/2020 6.078585154
4/1/2020 8.247094302
5/1/2020 7.61052182
6/1/2020 6.43208415
7/1/2020 5.339652312
8/1/2020 4.374310567
9/1/2020 3.670918378
10/1/2020 3.123526136
11/1/2020 2.842864593
12/1/2020 2.712236446
1/1/2021 2.817096945
2/1/2021 2.729716322
3/1/2021 2.73030255
4/1/2021 2.718710706
5/1/2021 2.59830599
6/1/2021 2.384370358
7/1/2021 2.236037611
8/1/2021 2.115548191
9/1/2021 2.127241887
10/1/2021 2.227007729
11/1/2021 2.338123292
12/1/2021 2.462250033
1/1/2022 2.734252445
2/1/2022 2.947552121
3/1/2022 3.352451171
4/1/2022 3.161045073
5/1/2022 2.885824902
6/1/2022 2.704370929
7/1/2022 2.581847824
8/1/2022 2.499784843
9/1/2022 2.510198284
10/1/2022 2.538409372
11/1/2022 2.550843973
12/1/2022 2.714494522
1/1/2023 2.935648382
2/1/2023 2.954943856
3/1/2023 3.127170655

Note: Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023)'s foreign aggregate economic uncertainty (EU) Foreign EU series are the equally-weighted average across non-U.S. countries. Series are standardized over their historical means (July 1960 to March 2023). The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extend from March 2001 to November 2001, December 2007 to June 2009, and February 2020 to April 2020.

Source: Main Economic Indicators via OECD; Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023).

Figure 4.2: Foreign Economic Uncertainty: Components

This is a line chart titled “Figure 4.2: Foreign Economic Uncertainty: Components”. The x axis ranges from 2000 to 2024 in yearly units. The Y axis ranges from -2 to 11 in standard deviations. The data is monthly. There are three variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled inflation; is designated by solid black medium width line; and ranges from -2 to 5 standard deviations. This variable consistently oscillates between -2 and 2 standard deviations from 2000 to 2020, before sharply rising to about 4 standard deviations and more slowly increasing to five standard deviations and plateauing there. The second variable is labeled labor; is designated by solid thin red line; and ranges from -2 to 8 standard deviations. This variable consistently oscillates between -2 and 0 standard deviations from 2000 to 2020, before sharply rising to about 7 standard deviations and then sharply decreasing down to about 0 to 1 standard deviations. The third line is labeled output; is designated by solid thick blue line; and ranges from -2 to 11 standard deviations. This variable consistently oscillates between -1 and 1 standard deviations from 2000 to 2020, before sharply rising to about 10 standard deviations and then sharply decreasing to 2 standard deviations.

Note: Inflation, labor, and output subcomponents of Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023)'s foreign aggregate economic uncertainty (EU). Foreign EU series are the equally-weighted average across non-U.S. countries. Series are standardized over their historical means (July 1960 to March 2023). The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extend from March 2001 to November 2001, December 2007 to June 2009, and February 2020 to April 2020.

Source: Main Economic Indicators via OECD; Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023).

Figure 4.2: Foreign Economic Uncertainty: Components Data

Standard Deviations

Date Inflation Labor Output
1/1/2000 -0.029860055 -0.461916846 0.506485858
2/1/2000 -0.439405488 -0.523723732 0.395426078
3/1/2000 -0.625244739 -0.574014393 0.271304093
4/1/2000 -0.84289553 -0.639095117 0.19050916
5/1/2000 -1.039882037 -0.732971064 0.069104097
6/1/2000 -1.142143529 -0.716236733 -0.066451669
7/1/2000 -1.066634562 -0.637300355 -0.119810946
8/1/2000 -1.021872103 -0.521452849 -0.200300046
9/1/2000 -1.019354386 -0.624680623 -0.2616673
10/1/2000 -0.935915601 -0.667178101 -0.247061419
11/1/2000 -0.849193141 -0.615120398 -0.136210563
12/1/2000 -0.671481322 -0.578404087 0.165935842
1/1/2001 -0.466445498 -0.437804201 0.467421947
2/1/2001 -0.385169182 -0.493670561 0.437595584
3/1/2001 -0.297529465 -0.53250118 0.334613232
4/1/2001 -0.001210472 -0.45156492 0.392689759
5/1/2001 -0.040402169 -0.286498479 0.321396267
6/1/2001 -0.329149806 -0.454131222 0.30978243
7/1/2001 -0.371686104 -0.620983247 0.428385696
8/1/2001 -0.44241368 -0.617441491 0.430268098
9/1/2001 -0.390967842 -0.52905023 0.473568603
10/1/2001 -0.320402251 -0.504467892 0.475775726
11/1/2001 -0.323040081 -0.477887236 0.590428146
12/1/2001 -0.28204219 -0.497364819 0.83192336
1/1/2002 -0.18347613 -0.442085274 0.988090453
2/1/2002 -0.263181602 -0.530145811 0.915010694
3/1/2002 -0.375980456 -0.572964768 0.77435357
4/1/2002 -0.475423817 -0.749662242 0.565248841
5/1/2002 -0.656797929 -0.828782615 0.39207499
6/1/2002 -0.712218699 -0.860643097 0.209019118
7/1/2002 -0.804139126 -0.937491502 0.073272596
8/1/2002 -0.737299754 -0.964848553 0.014379314
9/1/2002 -0.816518041 -0.939692985 -0.075374442
10/1/2002 -0.923302842 -0.915330415 -0.124604363
11/1/2002 -0.939981821 -0.906261791 -0.031514572
12/1/2002 -0.968176635 -0.813764769 0.198356413
1/1/2003 -0.829064565 -0.680608779 0.411933409
2/1/2003 -0.922983924 -0.743971741 0.273277874
3/1/2003 -0.971664281 -0.846149796 0.13773892
4/1/2003 -1.010671605 -0.826381973 0.04370591
5/1/2003 -1.114670222 -0.847421739 -0.075294684
6/1/2003 -1.227790739 -0.91382384 -0.146828245
7/1/2003 -1.28728161 -0.995502628 -0.137598219
8/1/2003 -1.292746839 -0.966480726 -0.099750235
9/1/2003 -1.248411821 -0.902847157 -0.180939943
10/1/2003 -1.200177889 -0.92449483 -0.141011724
11/1/2003 -1.178432812 -0.913608419 -0.095178178
12/1/2003 -1.048736173 -0.800254134 0.111109754
1/1/2004 -0.906454617 -0.71770013 0.196345798
2/1/2004 -0.977850471 -0.731198992 0.056879007
3/1/2004 -1.002605993 -0.741980294 -0.105869538
4/1/2004 -1.000081449 -0.734265101 -0.131300024
5/1/2004 -0.937689592 -0.729017323 -0.190491512
6/1/2004 -1.040683979 -0.744578209 -0.217585963
7/1/2004 -1.277302642 -0.734478542 -0.100360004
8/1/2004 -1.421818759 -0.854668971 -0.024725699
9/1/2004 -1.554696073 -0.87410686 -0.212739081
10/1/2004 -1.548883091 -0.885397524 -0.264821086
11/1/2004 -1.576430229 -0.939293235 -0.185563632
12/1/2004 -1.523030389 -0.910346367 0.130727098
1/1/2005 -1.538527513 -0.835781622 0.293068559
2/1/2005 -1.659047462 -0.943224514 0.307131844
3/1/2005 -1.639212661 -1.102089267 0.245175001
4/1/2005 -1.608857398 -1.194664125 0.204702056
5/1/2005 -1.619726071 -1.286934615 0.106887197
6/1/2005 -1.623904918 -1.306045701 0.046320457
7/1/2005 -1.609696585 -1.325891828 0.015906179
8/1/2005 -1.537343105 -1.310660053 0.015949739
9/1/2005 -1.411029718 -1.275808214 -0.044661673
10/1/2005 -1.341743795 -1.213616762 -0.102432781
11/1/2005 -1.352511642 -1.143309731 -0.050856846
12/1/2005 -1.366639038 -1.052613157 0.128247438
1/1/2006 -1.375654636 -0.968526256 0.176572487
2/1/2006 -1.44581457 -0.954750224 -0.010111682
3/1/2006 -1.45411648 -0.900331366 -0.144488895
4/1/2006 -1.350841946 -0.841193308 -0.151027127
5/1/2006 -1.20563531 -0.880970731 -0.160095073
6/1/2006 -1.119989171 -0.970424969 -0.158483747
7/1/2006 -1.323968629 -1.000832604 -0.186335047
8/1/2006 -1.454220652 -1.000174494 -0.204175584
9/1/2006 -1.457022709 -1.025546474 -0.187575507
10/1/2006 -1.408616819 -0.859834974 -0.159213296
11/1/2006 -1.405368995 -0.820952574 -0.131568992
12/1/2006 -1.294230567 -0.744883741 -0.031438405
1/1/2007 -1.168307096 -0.580725033 -0.097363235
2/1/2007 -1.375694 -0.883264539 -0.247835037
3/1/2007 -1.522632987 -1.093608528 -0.290387327
4/1/2007 -1.529793099 -1.238406856 -0.313964913
5/1/2007 -1.574294186 -1.264201596 -0.385408981
6/1/2007 -1.611087652 -1.222776267 -0.452169379
7/1/2007 -1.6037144 -1.205201859 -0.388011208
8/1/2007 -1.52851941 -1.165951817 -0.41556587
9/1/2007 -1.42227934 -1.03932199 -0.419756425
10/1/2007 -1.275285361 -0.936377613 -0.296222938
11/1/2007 -1.180402208 -0.815883244 -0.143777916
12/1/2007 -0.991191172 -0.671496213 0.067656068
1/1/2008 -0.81832428 -0.492354764 0.387155797
2/1/2008 -0.729574399 -0.440388155 0.424353566
3/1/2008 -0.658212689 -0.424941367 0.675667103
4/1/2008 -0.520929222 -0.414345631 0.71754011
5/1/2008 -0.396467628 -0.392441084 0.753811503
6/1/2008 -0.193012364 -0.281809629 0.727202867
7/1/2008 0.065619764 -0.129669609 0.747754585
8/1/2008 0.31178199 -0.044180926 1.013920185
9/1/2008 0.514998201 0.194941435 1.302095901
10/1/2008 0.751196651 0.597670231 1.866070579
11/1/2008 1.048372946 1.051745248 2.55478948
12/1/2008 1.136337438 1.256381016 2.914142584
1/1/2009 1.013513024 1.58954206 2.955445017
2/1/2009 0.68862611 1.291063738 2.392573361
3/1/2009 0.46192058 0.95390451 1.869359208
4/1/2009 0.415222123 0.637196413 1.574490818
5/1/2009 0.314481347 0.316214246 1.311956587
6/1/2009 0.09320543 0.124794425 1.054970419
7/1/2009 -0.076331887 -0.206506563 0.959793931
8/1/2009 -0.235121958 -0.44624178 0.878007674
9/1/2009 -0.424534142 -0.475879936 0.701708058
10/1/2009 -0.530989473 -0.502723533 0.560804234
11/1/2009 -0.456651249 -0.419185291 0.523714052
12/1/2009 -0.246802245 -0.256746432 0.537451758
1/1/2010 0.161474018 -0.118232224 0.714678449
2/1/2010 0.602843629 -0.299153786 0.629607356
3/1/2010 0.821327996 -0.383228713 0.580391355
4/1/2010 0.867007534 -0.484587796 0.551224571
5/1/2010 0.802929283 -0.573276608 0.446719549
6/1/2010 0.865896032 -0.635154494 0.392740046
7/1/2010 0.919380692 -0.654934224 0.419366596
8/1/2010 0.851354637 -0.689587052 0.386650934
9/1/2010 0.88469633 -0.644490655 0.361761974
10/1/2010 0.879919714 -0.564379917 0.502028581
11/1/2010 0.876911443 -0.540494693 0.4119129
12/1/2010 1.204659701 -0.354603258 0.611255833
1/1/2011 1.806687541 -0.194006996 0.720030533
2/1/2011 1.421986821 -0.303963324 0.685390392
3/1/2011 1.132723065 -0.391383866 0.719638162
4/1/2011 0.922808584 -0.423476793 0.649872531
5/1/2011 0.757142795 -0.532366585 0.626036178
6/1/2011 0.641160199 -0.670031064 0.622052386
7/1/2011 0.69188433 -0.803235925 0.544161858
8/1/2011 0.650405011 -0.854965259 0.489897392
9/1/2011 0.698067196 -0.819629558 0.479406799
10/1/2011 0.78043053 -0.836487152 0.399199897
11/1/2011 0.800754143 -0.798769552 0.409242515
12/1/2011 1.063889647 -0.725015452 0.56765153
1/1/2012 1.508298159 -0.623632342 0.728826429
2/1/2012 0.983520059 -0.563158492 0.950163918
3/1/2012 0.647994343 -0.568300881 0.782665102
4/1/2012 0.414746751 -0.667565255 0.567003232
5/1/2012 0.276708113 -0.804205687 0.335346054
6/1/2012 0.227672061 -0.858649389 0.214528334
7/1/2012 0.223291674 -0.897759412 0.127199301
8/1/2012 0.29841609 -0.924149149 0.104366836
9/1/2012 0.440633396 -0.962017712 0.236558272
10/1/2012 0.504237704 -0.927598774 0.282715617
11/1/2012 0.428275094 -0.963608579 0.349061398
12/1/2012 0.442098139 -0.948970415 0.306487084
1/1/2013 0.821874824 -0.838688721 0.307828299
2/1/2013 0.761032584 -0.85710504 0.214926023
3/1/2013 0.761802089 -0.752767504 0.151444497
4/1/2013 0.748180316 -0.899272048 0.046468628
5/1/2013 0.553155194 -1.041660402 -0.043896879
6/1/2013 0.439460488 -1.158266484 -0.126300151
7/1/2013 0.454340412 -1.171776812 -0.163070549
8/1/2013 0.434754245 -1.26080877 -0.279308893
9/1/2013 0.507429689 -1.211504293 -0.313999035
10/1/2013 0.499184656 -1.130379744 -0.325549841
11/1/2013 0.367561466 -1.056172801 -0.311902497
12/1/2013 0.359605636 -1.067020923 -0.1991391
1/1/2014 0.696962799 -1.04943814 -0.062821888
2/1/2014 0.482079921 -1.051089283 -0.136944953
3/1/2014 0.366340995 -1.081095529 -0.047703665
4/1/2014 0.386490676 -0.969593875 -0.03274571
5/1/2014 0.186526395 -0.829406214 0.031090357
6/1/2014 0.090248203 -0.929447546 0.070090887
7/1/2014 -0.005322246 -1.122413042 0.07137976
8/1/2014 -0.033603686 -1.19156194 0.096940503
9/1/2014 0.020498342 -1.233879417 -0.058610528
10/1/2014 0.067329772 -1.301015624 -0.091976744
11/1/2014 0.213450219 -1.381363369 -0.214274241
12/1/2014 0.417073135 -1.339691674 -0.112335406
1/1/2015 0.699669619 -1.373299244 0.05738799
2/1/2015 0.442552328 -1.399174925 0.085499593
3/1/2015 0.19934047 -1.393018871 0.031028163
4/1/2015 0.045093094 -1.40331034 0.077229958
5/1/2015 -0.123722682 -1.405231556 0.059526108
6/1/2015 -0.213848806 -1.383750853 -0.005534562
7/1/2015 -0.251642799 -1.288940972 0.091741558
8/1/2015 -0.263884369 -1.179941409 0.170876657
9/1/2015 -0.170507331 -1.114042475 0.10309825
10/1/2015 -0.121377447 -1.138020539 -0.013974317
11/1/2015 -0.13538366 -1.139450115 0.005320711
12/1/2015 -0.033874183 -1.116733498 0.112699438
1/1/2016 0.398026334 -1.065413674 0.226892961
2/1/2016 0.344414747 -1.097953718 0.130536713
3/1/2016 0.209114975 -1.026469211 0.044050801
4/1/2016 0.089354024 -0.895327859 -0.021593292
5/1/2016 0.002218647 -0.922703305 -0.013594944
6/1/2016 0.004089102 -1.148254132 -0.065838361
7/1/2016 0.08502873 -1.221476797 0.070331178
8/1/2016 0.108083703 -1.262100399 0.175846519
9/1/2016 0.215810424 -1.195893879 0.134231516
10/1/2016 0.248144676 -1.183479741 0.020905289
11/1/2016 0.211611555 -1.121637442 -0.029648727
12/1/2016 0.351345868 -1.033299508 0.010815245
1/1/2017 0.615155038 -0.903679789 0.102773931
2/1/2017 0.551205888 -0.908295962 0.070155179
3/1/2017 0.481881761 -0.975388976 0.064294482
4/1/2017 0.410098221 -1.075556908 -0.009230011
5/1/2017 0.324638363 -1.224637942 -0.111291528
6/1/2017 0.215037785 -1.357416965 -0.160415133
7/1/2017 0.17760444 -1.417809447 -0.145057138
8/1/2017 0.032932349 -1.457269478 -0.147085539
9/1/2017 -0.017468055 -1.518579941 -0.136119025
10/1/2017 0.064903823 -1.475839081 -0.141817345
11/1/2017 -0.014393806 -1.427603595 -0.083118632
12/1/2017 0.091969433 -1.402734896 0.028233781
1/1/2018 0.385378103 -1.30966524 0.138566152
2/1/2018 0.314988152 -1.228246377 0.120635327
3/1/2018 0.247508467 -1.16004734 0.076094902
4/1/2018 0.206668335 -1.086722743 0.010772723
5/1/2018 0.137511391 -1.109796915 -0.081583621
6/1/2018 0.042482716 -1.121793502 -0.107509605
7/1/2018 0.028750145 -0.996775989 -0.108782439
8/1/2018 0.043735033 -1.189658337 -0.27162337
9/1/2018 0.128807417 -1.304076529 -0.294067489
10/1/2018 0.207255787 -1.406488515 -0.255593973
11/1/2018 0.194185057 -1.425240982 -0.197275215
12/1/2018 0.329513195 -1.373975415 -0.082587795
1/1/2019 0.524649304 -1.289032709 -0.04967179
2/1/2019 0.491968147 -1.271872446 -0.086219577
3/1/2019 0.422162881 -1.325663491 -0.138605995
4/1/2019 0.449679713 -1.235870903 -0.088943078
5/1/2019 0.462968468 -1.197806439 -0.016275563
6/1/2019 0.445790348 -1.090313692 0.122082307
7/1/2019 0.449795876 -1.098297366 0.149903712
8/1/2019 0.43751531 -1.038836638 0.212063144
9/1/2019 0.556430292 -0.994872218 0.342326128
10/1/2019 0.617782739 -0.823555439 0.608576052
11/1/2019 0.734804466 -0.446121882 1.071719545
12/1/2019 1.044860224 0.126600318 1.740337501
1/1/2020 1.614854304 1.02360764 2.730186196
2/1/2020 2.133606829 2.462663824 4.264326894
3/1/2020 3.092848093 5.436530468 6.988328844
4/1/2020 3.659572932 7.146475958 10.26177753
5/1/2020 3.376389085 6.518244437 9.252047614
6/1/2020 3.021824086 5.08556528 7.868750092
7/1/2020 2.66217319 3.896710085 6.501467157
8/1/2020 2.306658384 2.926072045 5.080790484
9/1/2020 2.094899616 2.013262186 3.963450591
10/1/2020 1.936528943 1.294376695 3.102690946
11/1/2020 1.890208601 0.871870288 2.574982672
12/1/2020 2.031124556 0.634269112 2.197709495
1/1/2021 2.447939392 0.521124963 2.076910748
2/1/2021 2.36217448 0.424121774 1.854074626
3/1/2021 2.384687099 0.483016055 1.772480089
4/1/2021 2.530521846 0.409734137 1.787021965
5/1/2021 2.552611429 0.373301651 1.724641946
6/1/2021 2.429267014 0.304929309 1.54403978
7/1/2021 2.524100441 0.180045775 1.313209167
8/1/2021 2.483501469 0.053259486 1.230157099
9/1/2021 2.632762512 -0.042117035 1.153092489
10/1/2021 2.955551553 -0.024966191 1.099549246
11/1/2021 3.098517383 -0.010190476 1.10805878
12/1/2021 3.362939359 0.073499726 1.180921405
1/1/2022 4.005040537 0.259281176 1.364805133
2/1/2022 4.266525531 0.468427239 1.466957532
3/1/2022 4.863852561 0.99274846 1.668755009
4/1/2022 4.730251978 0.742976943 1.549611583
5/1/2022 4.457961411 0.308596329 1.398720609
6/1/2022 4.26213447 0.012673131 1.410681275
7/1/2022 4.094773275 -0.232069086 1.309193372
8/1/2022 4.074010699 -0.372407081 1.161833204
9/1/2022 4.300814276 -0.438886309 1.152313934
10/1/2022 4.326088148 -0.510483544 1.178218572
11/1/2022 4.246418014 -0.490305522 1.14366428
12/1/2022 4.295389315 -0.562084016 1.270231518
1/1/2023 4.547656614 -0.529820198 1.439727431
2/1/2023 4.126133281 -0.516385064 1.617896759
3/1/2023 3.856556372 -0.410860499 2.278136729

Note: Inflation, labor, and output subcomponents of Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023)'s foreign aggregate economic uncertainty (EU). Foreign EU series are the equally-weighted average across non-U.S. countries. Series are standardized over their historical means (July 1960 to March 2023). The gray shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shaded recession periods extend from March 2001 to November 2001, December 2007 to June 2009, and February 2020 to April 2020.

Source: Main Economic Indicators via OECD; Londono, Ma, and Wilson (2023).

Last Update: November 14, 2023