Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1: Prime-Aged Labor Force Participation Rate Index

This is a line chart titled “Prime-Age Labor Force Participation Rate Index”. The x-axis ranges from the year 2015 to the year 2024 in one-year increments. The y-axis ranges from -0.05 to 0.02. The single variable in the chart is monthly in its frequency. This variable is the normalized prime-aged labor force participation rate, normalized by dividing each value by the Feb 2020 value, then subtracting one. This variable is designated by a solid red line. This variable slowly rises from 2015 to 2020, from roughly -0.03 to 0, then sharply decreases to a low of -0.04 in spring 2020. The value then slowly rises again in a similar fashion from spring 2020 to the present.

Figure 2: Job Opening Counts Index

This is a line chart titled “Job Opening Counts Index”. The x-axis ranges from the year 2019 to the year 2024 in weekly increments. The y-axis ranges from 60 to 180. The single variable in the chart is weekly in its frequency. This variable is the normalized job opening counts index rate, normalized by setting the average of 2019 to 100, then dividing each value. This variable is designated by a solid red line. This variable stays around 100 from 2019 till spring 2020, then sharply decreases to a low of 60 in spring 2020. The value then continually rises again until mid-2022, where it reaches a local high of about 180. It then slowly declines down to 120 in the present.

Figure 3: PCE and Core PCE inflation

Figure 4: Measures of Household Borrowing Rates

This is a line chart titled “Measures of Household Borrowing Rates”. The x-axis ranges from the year 2018 to the year 2024. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 8 in percent. There are two variables in the chart, the effective federal funds rate in daily frequency, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in weekly frequency. This first variable is represented by a solid black line and the second variable is represented by a dotted red line. The effective federal funds rate is always below the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. The effective federal funds rate slowly decreases from 2018 to 2020, before sharply dropping to near zero in the spring of 2020, staying at this point until spring 2022. In the spring of 2022, the statistic sharply increases to around 5.5% and stays there till the present. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate mirrors the behavior of the first variable but of a different level. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate slowly decreases from 2018 to 2022, from around 5% to 2.5%. In the spring of 2022, the statistic sharply increases to around 7% and stays there till the present.

Figure 5: Market Rents and Housing Services Inflation

Figure 6: Measures of Household Borrowing Rates

Figure 7: Average Monthly Mortgage Payment and Prime Rate

This is a line chart titled “Average Monthly Mortgage Payment and Prime Rate”. The x-axis ranges from the year 2000 to the year 2025. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 8 in percent on the right axis and 1800 to 2400 dollars on the left axis. There are two variables in the chart, the average monthly payment on the left scale, and the prime rate on the right scale, both in quarterly frequency. This first variable is represented by a solid blue line and the second variable is represented by a dotted red line. The average monthly payment begins a slow and steady uptick from its start of roughly 1950 dollars, eventually reaching a local maximum in 2008 at a value of roughly 2300 dollars. The value then drops sharply during the great recession, reaching a low of around 1900 dollars in 2014. Then from 2014 onwards, the value slowly increases up to 2000 dollars, before then dropping in early 2020 to a value of roughly 1850, before climbing to its current value of roughly 2000 dollars. The second variable, prime rate follows a similar pattern to the first variable. The prime rate starts at an all time high of around 8% in 2000, before slowly decreasing in a volatile manner until early 2020, where it reaches its global minimum of around 3%. The value then very sharply increases to nearly 7.5% over the course of 2020 to the present.