Accessible Version

Accessible Version

Figure 1: Headline Inflation

4-quarter percent change

Date World headline inflation Global component
11/15/1962 2.814194352 -1.596083863
2/15/1963 3.237945972 -1.385226017
5/16/1963 2.741826602 -1.323775763
8/15/1963 2.886738322 -1.331885395
11/15/1963 3.157616486 -1.410734853
2/15/1964 2.650317457 -1.501241844
5/16/1964 2.863798309 -1.540834222
8/15/1964 2.930697015 -1.570081492
11/15/1964 2.869153089 -1.597180648
2/15/1965 2.942034481 -1.632585139
5/16/1965 3.257050006 -1.677088721
8/15/1965 3.396823157 -1.70850291
11/15/1965 3.414071473 -1.701376418
2/15/1966 3.611181233 -1.654906801
5/16/1966 3.686713852 -1.5831953
8/15/1966 3.57537294 -1.500786991
11/15/1966 3.589438279 -1.407205796
2/15/1967 3.218328269 -1.2843645
5/16/1967 2.883147748 -1.135430245
8/15/1967 3.014107238 -0.981693489
11/15/1967 3.065979454 -0.888452691
2/15/1968 3.504503393 -0.878898591
5/16/1968 3.638471359 -0.916164009
8/15/1968 3.725166712 -0.955313387
11/15/1968 3.842421812 -0.920047212
2/15/1969 4.180118445 -0.786965431
5/16/1969 4.5879387 -0.56532367
8/15/1969 4.637556903 -0.306071532
11/15/1969 4.881931231 -0.06152292
2/15/1970 5.372766747 0.10786721
5/16/1970 5.308959395 0.205583874
8/15/1970 5.50291064 0.25778593
11/15/1970 5.791362998 0.283248952
2/15/1971 5.328326042 0.315803465
5/16/1971 5.449291888 0.356900331
8/15/1971 5.591869894 0.406970349
11/15/1971 5.214697521 0.456119831
2/15/1972 4.87707064 0.509931297
5/16/1972 4.659298915 0.592630572
8/15/1972 4.752895558 0.761220693
11/15/1972 5.066887765 1.134565574
2/15/1973 5.863040022 1.834914443
5/16/1973 7.385363415 2.946221267
8/15/1973 8.232635378 4.458497162
11/15/1973 9.689211381 6.225078986
2/15/1974 11.79754449 7.928966666
5/16/1974 12.49712297 9.118176518
8/15/1974 13.40082157 9.561133488
11/15/1974 13.86833237 9.199190107
2/15/1975 12.57779029 8.237209006
5/16/1975 11.67599575 7.04276238
8/15/1975 10.70061639 5.932962675
11/15/1975 9.451660716 5.08698954
2/15/1976 8.8976538 4.525957982
5/16/1976 8.583061883 4.144388385
8/15/1976 8.194568528 3.900262834
11/15/1976 8.628759259 3.785750289
2/15/1977 9.111764205 3.765160418
5/16/1977 9.298958991 3.83063869
8/15/1977 9.394298465 3.859794516
11/15/1977 8.43818349 3.690589618
2/15/1978 7.545155661 3.482167533
5/16/1978 7.338925244 3.276199691
8/15/1978 7.499655483 3.117903037
11/15/1978 7.696648132 3.081750052
2/15/1979 8.260601204 3.364497243
5/16/1979 8.869501059 3.934258731
8/15/1979 9.864646992 4.687622352
11/15/1979 10.85986031 5.541422939
2/15/1980 12.25579073 6.350043641
5/16/1980 12.7856099 6.858878635
8/15/1980 12.05506289 7.018397445
11/15/1980 11.83518947 6.925131274
2/15/1981 11.10433121 6.785984057
5/16/1981 10.42933394 6.622859846
8/15/1981 10.66184217 6.428888718
11/15/1981 10.2819562 6.084492559
2/15/1982 9.238567627 5.542497694
5/16/1982 8.941808181 4.851188429
8/15/1982 8.729733937 4.147483565
11/15/1982 8.210201676 3.540931548
2/15/1983 7.942273509 3.074084121
5/16/1983 7.588501286 2.716458199
8/15/1983 6.843875974 2.45920624
11/15/1983 6.940470605 2.261092413
2/15/1984 7.114765791 2.064205061
5/16/1984 6.813370071 1.875358647
8/15/1984 6.593149735 1.648854941
11/15/1984 6.347763166 1.419014113
2/15/1985 6.105087401 1.204752194
5/16/1985 6.129905806 0.990273561
8/15/1985 5.87908627 0.728443346
11/15/1985 5.586636254 0.409368506
2/15/1986 5.067076117 0.096270275
5/16/1986 4.044658909 -0.148501776
8/15/1986 3.973010742 -0.262194591
11/15/1986 3.915105229 -0.30371682
2/15/1987 4.098972661 -0.275977455
5/16/1987 5.062425055 -0.200401042
8/15/1987 5.461829461 -0.076432656
11/15/1987 5.697403835 0.061972691
2/15/1988 5.729166735 0.212306601
5/16/1988 5.474401407 0.388437145
8/15/1988 5.19310067 0.564126705
11/15/1988 4.881852454 0.746150425
2/15/1989 4.516567941 0.924636808
5/16/1989 4.884836324 1.088844571
8/15/1989 4.73197176 1.245476071
11/15/1989 4.784903004 1.375135019
2/15/1990 5.277323861 1.474335971
5/16/1990 4.952670533 1.551740725
8/15/1990 5.431513534 1.584567006
11/15/1990 5.975676207 1.564269518
2/15/1991 5.459243811 1.495055226
5/16/1991 5.173616207 1.387547953
8/15/1991 4.722317653 1.254601177
11/15/1991 4.198698283 1.087211733
2/15/1992 3.902039435 0.896236259
5/16/1992 3.870151292 0.673940168
8/15/1992 3.45460879 0.435680508
11/15/1992 3.077981583 0.225222232
2/15/1993 3.214348346 0.049499532
5/16/1993 3.034102088 -0.101016745
8/15/1993 3.064825773 -0.233905413
11/15/1993 2.890224123 -0.352399282
2/15/1994 2.642229419 -0.456219187
5/16/1994 2.409818981 -0.508314914
8/15/1994 2.495929177 -0.529047928
11/15/1994 2.458188882 -0.556548832
2/15/1995 2.767392312 0.149414782
5/16/1995 3.319454087 0.168671019
8/15/1995 3.29269204 0.01430597
11/15/1995 3.335221776 0.00143073
2/15/1996 3.190397946 -0.091709287
5/16/1996 2.992595955 -0.074714862
8/15/1996 2.835716274 -0.092063439
11/15/1996 2.934464439 -0.041275068
2/15/1997 2.746207151 -0.166891583
5/16/1997 2.377558796 -0.46928897
8/15/1997 2.420305505 -0.427822387
11/15/1997 2.233138068 -0.464744024
2/15/1998 1.995684604 -0.613864357
5/16/1998 1.911561246 -0.594521344
8/15/1998 1.700057204 -0.816176939
11/15/1998 1.708755571 -1.039624521
2/15/1999 1.599435943 -1.053741293
5/16/1999 1.761880196 -0.977966172
8/15/1999 1.882513137 -0.824976126
11/15/1999 1.912955102 -0.483608918
2/15/2000 2.324903624 -0.119690123
5/16/2000 2.289404918 -0.031627337
8/15/2000 2.546022916 0.231106524
11/15/2000 2.580232398 0.303094
2/15/2001 2.579760025 0.093772296
5/16/2001 2.733728104 0.363931938
8/15/2001 2.258827746 0.050384939
11/15/2001 1.660653436 -0.450064039
2/15/2002 1.438704732 -0.345153858
5/16/2002 1.407659004 -0.555842339
8/15/2002 1.548323262 -0.507533258
11/15/2002 2.004019021 -0.158852629
2/15/2003 2.41499989 0.063607944
5/16/2003 1.744247264 -0.403240181
8/15/2003 1.74859401 -0.430313477
11/15/2003 1.674920854 -0.481647508
2/15/2004 1.489147131 -0.702959408
5/16/2004 2.079364586 -0.248272303
8/15/2004 2.095557966 -0.187395919
11/15/2004 2.445062581 -0.071274954
2/15/2005 2.19397134 -0.217459038
5/16/2005 2.101279543 -0.237215041
8/15/2005 2.546640454 0.078731601
11/15/2005 2.40786392 0.087910021
2/15/2006 2.523423989 0.24967769
5/16/2006 2.732052866 0.373899457
8/15/2006 2.427611148 0.094184748
11/15/2006 1.772733653 -0.298373572
2/15/2007 1.935837707 -0.257977067
5/16/2007 1.989357732 -0.229279416
8/15/2007 1.869044549 -0.057922641
11/15/2007 2.982260058 1.01000216
2/15/2008 3.255928135 1.529354668
5/16/2008 3.609902392 1.910958634
8/15/2008 4.277525839 1.981551001
11/15/2008 2.145505337 0.344374669
2/15/2009 0.789805979 -1.064901645
5/16/2009 -0.026372989 -1.936499964
8/15/2009 -0.712497714 -2.1325694
11/15/2009 0.830744295 -1.118031061
2/15/2010 1.690784132 -0.192573438
5/16/2010 1.571397708 0.100030096
8/15/2010 1.340566968 -0.060461065
11/15/2010 1.570165277 0.123219943
2/15/2011 2.087740406 0.55388548
5/16/2011 2.705579082 0.889475441
8/15/2011 2.944690702 1.016588935
11/15/2011 2.692224564 0.915628866
2/15/2012 2.369196322 0.495038517
5/16/2012 1.824257648 0.174047174
8/15/2012 1.704317585 0.272109778
11/15/2012 1.748721639 0.155666676
2/15/2013 1.523463311 -0.076709499
5/16/2013 1.337264277 -0.321316416
8/15/2013 1.457447064 -0.493411355
11/15/2013 1.256543811 -0.7851067
2/15/2014 1.359812007 -0.799477269
5/16/2014 1.820406219 -0.733514087
8/15/2014 1.579333681 -0.853063725
11/15/2014 1.137113173 -1.035245623
2/15/2015 0.370304277 -1.518798479
5/16/2015 0.340550961 -1.389364903
8/15/2015 0.298892229 -1.49443097
11/15/2015 0.453713851 -1.355155595
2/15/2016 0.675868401 -1.201324091
5/16/2016 0.679792591 -1.11083136
8/15/2016 0.781561543 -0.916868188
11/15/2016 1.291153381 -0.617811668
2/15/2017 1.978129244 -0.014644221
5/16/2017 1.662448829 -0.310996907
8/15/2017 1.7230842 -0.25363265
11/15/2017 1.778222164 -0.078519153
2/15/2018 1.806098141 -0.208769967
5/16/2018 2.057564786 -0.005243539
8/15/2018 2.187599522 0.00399512
11/15/2018 1.926394174 -0.190604011
2/15/2019 1.411790092 -0.302826131
5/16/2019 1.590136997 -0.004964824
8/15/2019 1.34148918 -0.217765473
11/15/2019 1.457567526 -0.198075855
2/15/2020 1.556170913 -0.589251133
5/16/2020 0.332494366 -0.39544996
8/15/2020 0.702390397 -0.15381291
11/15/2020 0.60591205 0.231871086
2/15/2021 1.281977289 0.733561077
5/16/2021 2.990212851 1.31841333
8/15/2021 3.484385623 1.943351033
11/15/2021 4.71599084 2.55608739
2/15/2022 5.752021426 3.139962025
5/16/2022 6.856373185 3.611958643
8/15/2022 7.185763687 3.905659648
11/15/2022 6.95205038 3.948069571
2/15/2023 5.987094785 3.728553077
5/16/2023 4.623179693 3.296307461
8/15/2023 3.967843934 2.725129217
11/15/2023 3.16981534 2.080688087
2/15/2024 2.994285035 1.392188132

Note: World headline inflation is the gross domestic product (GDP)-weighted, 4-quarter percent change of consumer price indexes for selected economies. Global component is the GDP-weighted aggregate of each economy's common component.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 2: Noncore Inflation

4-quarter percent change

Date World noncore inflation Global component
11/15/1962 3.122515055 -0.964229683
2/15/1963 3.754194957 -0.955915776
5/16/1963 2.54735219 -1.124501476
8/15/1963 2.921412687 -1.403170315
11/15/1963 3.436339489 -1.729627159
2/15/1964 2.30110197 -1.957137908
5/16/1964 3.034351158 -2.075409121
8/15/1964 2.781827569 -2.174796359
11/15/1964 2.286979144 -2.245032156
2/15/1965 2.226883802 -2.320939002
5/16/1965 2.938548002 -2.403559353
8/15/1965 3.644362687 -2.411971897
11/15/1965 3.909016388 -2.34454008
2/15/1966 4.795655898 -2.211375973
5/16/1966 4.339995156 -2.051792537
8/15/1966 3.645723591 -1.905848594
11/15/1966 3.514830262 -1.729500053
2/15/1967 1.943668793 -1.507169092
5/16/1967 1.649980268 -1.246902707
8/15/1967 2.098309846 -1.038364052
11/15/1967 1.773954005 -1.00413702
2/15/1968 2.817129761 -1.098322623
5/16/1968 3.012602815 -1.245197669
8/15/1968 2.859020948 -1.315801136
11/15/1968 3.250409929 -1.178313339
2/15/1969 3.839192013 -0.86009016
5/16/1969 4.330986417 -0.444626372
8/15/1969 4.380061923 -0.008415662
11/15/1969 4.811665156 0.317815678
2/15/1970 5.64605264 0.469406166
5/16/1970 5.115031669 0.528119445
8/15/1970 5.365515421 0.526477812
11/15/1970 5.193484217 0.521075699
2/15/1971 4.136488624 0.545652254
5/16/1971 4.64810755 0.589458255
8/15/1971 5.092990161 0.644963052
11/15/1971 5.162381587 0.70343509
2/15/1972 4.683882758 0.781842473
5/16/1972 4.487050739 0.939247884
8/15/1972 4.599934503 1.326862623
11/15/1972 5.121316028 2.181137434
2/15/1973 7.325645969 3.667215283
5/16/1973 10.24924244 5.865884767
8/15/1973 11.95844646 8.624090651
11/15/1973 14.52976893 11.51964162
2/15/1974 17.97050886 13.79086435
5/16/1974 17.71921408 14.81081773
8/15/1974 17.37906318 14.38745253
11/15/1974 16.36737853 12.67061134
2/15/1975 13.06065504 10.33495774
5/16/1975 11.4110483 8.099589279
8/15/1975 11.1185752 6.361774349
11/15/1975 10.11381567 5.281274706
2/15/1976 8.359024236 4.676728638
5/16/1976 8.270867219 4.324161962
8/15/1976 6.924682553 4.231939127
11/15/1976 7.585055092 4.351876792
2/15/1977 8.102397633 4.6422253
5/16/1977 9.300344126 5.010434556
8/15/1977 10.45737688 5.04983984
11/15/1977 9.299086869 4.807740959
2/15/1978 7.582162148 4.539241589
5/16/1978 7.663299034 4.279865113
8/15/1978 7.879922625 4.123265978
11/15/1978 8.004968276 4.302784954
2/15/1979 8.577099771 5.099358537
5/16/1979 10.2762317 6.250844367
8/15/1979 12.32119513 7.588776602
11/15/1979 13.34200443 8.96892017
2/15/1980 15.72117793 9.954745863
5/16/1980 14.82317751 10.27777672
8/15/1980 13.20326947 10.07108588
11/15/1980 12.98586187 9.607039093
2/15/1981 12.16865836 9.194372716
5/16/1981 11.68590806 8.858136405
8/15/1981 11.34276997 8.389880787
11/15/1981 10.86053717 7.612115957
2/15/1982 7.937681044 6.518023236
5/16/1982 7.511207821 5.322645274
8/15/1982 7.728324329 4.293367123
11/15/1982 7.415235808 3.529051805
2/15/1983 6.885503109 3.03101242
5/16/1983 7.288578336 2.724847617
8/15/1983 5.473894808 2.544726266
11/15/1983 5.77600652 2.428194165
2/15/1984 6.979018391 2.283707913
5/16/1984 6.307344638 2.077313316
8/15/1984 6.082255731 1.799078705
11/15/1984 5.830705577 1.548868486
2/15/1985 5.250687663 1.31628122
5/16/1985 5.270833307 1.014891872
8/15/1985 4.803854841 0.599785204
11/15/1985 4.356249019 0.09652729
2/15/1986 3.149061169 -0.346505744
5/16/1986 0.603803152 -0.578723485
8/15/1986 0.291254667 -0.637680155
11/15/1986 0.120905281 -0.571904884
2/15/1987 0.924093421 -0.446542352
5/16/1987 3.532277261 -0.232993124
8/15/1987 4.621658654 0.029839108
11/15/1987 4.961230594 0.294720414
2/15/1988 4.653646019 0.588194877
5/16/1988 4.318356524 0.8751693
8/15/1988 4.132056521 1.147254104
11/15/1988 3.918676373 1.42624649
2/15/1989 3.861960817 1.663061101
5/16/1989 5.145628366 1.874313597
8/15/1989 4.665048413 2.058983818
11/15/1989 4.956451267 2.182545166
2/15/1990 6.118272357 2.264033275
5/16/1990 4.522727826 2.305537368
8/15/1990 5.663316097 2.264068157
11/15/1990 7.544000024 2.133248371
2/15/1991 5.382380778 1.948968344
5/16/1991 5.28087265 1.722867774
8/15/1991 4.150209516 1.458536956
11/15/1991 2.403342966 1.169668968
2/15/1992 2.497545791 0.843545745
5/16/1992 2.524682749 0.4681477
8/15/1992 2.03132199 0.129405584
11/15/1992 1.629869619 -0.129965961
2/15/1993 2.029155502 -0.344490683
5/16/1993 1.960783956 -0.50273884
8/15/1993 2.100055213 -0.647418113
11/15/1993 1.970002288 -0.778518327
2/15/1994 2.048955587 -0.846314609
5/16/1994 1.588352114 -0.837117412
8/15/1994 2.260865405 -0.811873038
11/15/1994 2.117078569 -0.845736781
2/15/1995 2.357053369 0.01226185
5/16/1995 3.169452149 -0.113950602
8/15/1995 2.577379472 -0.679014791
11/15/1995 2.479865465 -0.675058888
2/15/1996 2.645164904 -0.878685193
5/16/1996 3.119400094 -0.429080863
8/15/1996 3.179841044 -0.263420762
11/15/1996 3.939029046 0.183257214
2/15/1997 3.645628143 -0.063355211
5/16/1997 2.13103279 -1.094781408
8/15/1997 2.480500017 -0.718449166
11/15/1997 1.83646837 -0.819301245
2/15/1998 1.04738509 -1.290723419
5/16/1998 1.144066812 -1.100831616
8/15/1998 0.578403044 -1.886263275
11/15/1998 0.813849477 -2.585789649
2/15/1999 0.862830945 -2.453778642
5/16/1999 1.889205229 -1.979688367
8/15/1999 2.622406706 -1.292563433
11/15/1999 2.94942638 0.036264512
2/15/2000 4.391520311 1.272728306
5/16/2000 4.151959974 1.348558379
8/15/2000 4.630692399 2.018564458
11/15/2000 4.671253935 1.963749506
2/15/2001 4.380828481 0.862110786
5/16/2001 4.583328242 1.720816737
8/15/2001 2.756140963 0.392112648
11/15/2001 0.379935544 -1.553936023
2/15/2002 -0.358141088 -1.176493122
5/16/2002 -0.384291301 -2.009003108
8/15/2002 0.416544878 -1.781890709
11/15/2002 2.379845637 -0.485374762
2/15/2003 4.68513293 0.701661087
5/16/2003 2.564925527 -1.223417874
8/15/2003 3.092308623 -1.135620558
11/15/2003 3.107192016 -1.147077856
2/15/2004 2.115946823 -2.02019724
5/16/2004 3.951364683 0.001601247
8/15/2004 3.855196443 0.173714864
11/15/2004 4.947296433 0.709420701
2/15/2005 3.717932996 0.099727246
5/16/2005 3.865197877 0.124118866
8/15/2005 5.853654965 1.465950856
11/15/2005 5.325809679 1.45728023
2/15/2006 5.842642759 2.072511299
5/16/2006 5.99774156 2.264355241
8/15/2006 4.260111856 0.970342646
11/15/2006 1.579576583 -0.811793278
2/15/2007 2.043754437 -0.907961865
5/16/2007 2.530370253 -0.904508466
8/15/2007 2.097683666 -0.41748438
11/15/2007 6.397548531 3.770973425
2/15/2008 7.242270045 5.505400057
5/16/2008 8.374168735 6.626947913
8/15/2008 10.49328934 6.58677553
11/15/2008 2.704272232 0.080306081
2/15/2009 -1.830952981 -4.862881256
5/16/2009 -4.407060382 -7.42286613
8/15/2009 -5.976346628 -7.396002602
11/15/2009 -0.140254308 -3.298450334
2/15/2010 3.436958676 0.371007907
5/16/2010 3.487031372 1.387047224
8/15/2010 2.541461881 0.488194152
11/15/2010 3.37889801 1.093595984
2/15/2011 4.887400966 2.616532843
5/16/2011 6.599592614 3.632906844
8/15/2011 7.026706486 3.925982313
11/15/2011 5.707525532 3.225687719
2/15/2012 4.253343325 1.505010909
5/16/2012 2.19411046 0.254281052
8/15/2012 2.099354239 0.753698825
11/15/2012 2.352543768 0.546307287
2/15/2013 1.778527309 -0.285201928
5/16/2013 1.387492406 -0.974499323
8/15/2013 1.629984607 -1.561497504
11/15/2013 0.814183704 -2.622365673
2/15/2014 1.228852485 -2.628594126
5/16/2014 2.225777117 -2.428991731
8/15/2014 1.500304069 -2.796001933
11/15/2014 -0.129359293 -3.583551252
2/15/2015 -3.307533555 -5.434795756
5/16/2015 -3.022629278 -4.716632546
8/15/2015 -3.35390127 -5.187477601
11/15/2015 -2.963034509 -4.691809452
2/15/2016 -2.182392321 -4.184642653
5/16/2016 -1.967704197 -3.851768179
8/15/2016 -1.578617218 -3.178645361
11/15/2016 0.626865308 -2.044951105
2/15/2017 3.466264443 0.372738757
5/16/2017 2.243073058 -1.162016472
8/15/2017 2.606274399 -0.876313382
11/15/2017 2.755442349 -0.016728145
2/15/2018 2.658670659 -0.658198176
5/16/2018 3.493631632 0.250562368
8/15/2018 3.905870204 0.124791123
11/15/2018 2.893697595 -0.848556692
2/15/2019 0.969576097 -1.38855092
5/16/2019 1.561785941 -0.295921633
8/15/2019 0.353257169 -1.267461969
11/15/2019 0.742805806 -1.316117194
2/15/2020 1.308846123 -0.71765092
5/16/2020 -1.839581685 -0.404058398
8/15/2020 -0.496924666 0.164051233
11/15/2020 -0.803694047 0.949700889
2/15/2021 1.631786445 1.929522449
5/16/2021 5.966229941 2.955557309
8/15/2021 6.841364585 3.964281998
11/15/2021 9.758889043 4.877258952
2/15/2022 11.13153868 5.629442871
5/16/2022 14.07642009 6.130209949
8/15/2022 13.68526085 6.2372704
11/15/2022 12.08188758 5.876868331
2/15/2023 8.747861673 5.095575299
5/16/2023 3.781880154 4.036935422
8/15/2023 3.019586243 2.861010309
11/15/2023 1.349049113 1.635610934
2/15/2024 1.606470266 0.408135173

Note: World noncore inflation is the gross domestic product (GDP)-weighted, 4-quarter percent change of noncore consumer price indexes for selected economies. Global component is the GDP-weighted aggregate of each economy's common component.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 3: Core Inflation

4-quarter percent change

Date World core inflation Global component
11/15/1962 2.611812509 -1.855003814
2/15/1963 2.97945519 -1.565359077
5/16/1963 2.786306599 -1.411684509
8/15/1963 2.849915972 -1.315323638
11/15/1963 3.020264514 -1.298431202
2/15/1964 2.758337645 -1.332912891
5/16/1964 2.776584326 -1.344124114
8/15/1964 2.966667188 -1.34771035
11/15/1964 3.110731447 -1.354068932
2/15/1965 3.197341413 -1.370833339
5/16/1965 3.348702669 -1.394886654
8/15/1965 3.265062722 -1.427190567
11/15/1965 3.186621621 -1.439901028
2/15/1966 3.183455013 -1.423872684
5/16/1966 3.44614273 -1.385158522
8/15/1966 3.557453408 -1.326881061
11/15/1966 3.61543356 -1.262465615
2/15/1967 3.718538458 -1.178667364
5/16/1967 3.377937111 -1.073631597
8/15/1967 3.401989526 -0.946607068
11/15/1967 3.616099736 -0.836080178
2/15/1968 3.780621559 -0.785473413
5/16/1968 3.899366561 -0.780448901
8/15/1968 4.074685492 -0.80454341
11/15/1968 4.087951179 -0.807388231
2/15/1969 4.316605634 -0.749777365
5/16/1969 4.677959315 -0.607471144
8/15/1969 4.747117903 -0.418857867
11/15/1969 4.903120975 -0.210169046
2/15/1970 5.254693675 -0.03497671
5/16/1970 5.390868163 0.081026067
8/15/1970 5.510152635 0.152912258
11/15/1970 5.957269151 0.190324201
2/15/1971 5.754422729 0.223391879
5/16/1971 5.728832143 0.259766655
8/15/1971 5.763389562 0.306208261
11/15/1971 5.208267917 0.350276528
2/15/1972 4.93440789 0.395332756
5/16/1972 4.684349585 0.451247064
8/15/1972 4.7686076 0.540708256
11/15/1972 5.044070148 0.734208221
2/15/1973 5.27382149 1.130740162
5/16/1973 6.242565112 1.816476301
8/15/1973 6.773268537 2.829783959
11/15/1973 7.760965481 4.132671588
2/15/1974 9.241913766 5.573700696
5/16/1974 10.25749302 6.800925203
8/15/1974 11.58679841 7.564685558
11/15/1974 12.57244795 7.723254385
2/15/1975 12.08326374 7.305324524
5/16/1975 11.52187456 6.522475637
8/15/1975 10.36105084 5.655305181
11/15/1975 9.070616044 4.899732988
2/15/1976 9.05198704 4.353337312
5/16/1976 8.5577067 3.970173414
8/15/1976 8.520314791 3.695216937
11/15/1976 8.829468006 3.511096488
2/15/1977 9.452863984 3.394180792
5/16/1977 9.3128434 3.351954219
8/15/1977 8.911113362 3.373855366
11/15/1977 8.11000284 3.249285669
2/15/1978 7.59588284 3.071222571
5/16/1978 7.287932415 2.881431524
8/15/1978 7.461327906 2.72077874
11/15/1978 7.694323674 2.600298046
2/15/1979 8.22988504 2.683469392
5/16/1979 8.405601637 2.997543921
8/15/1979 8.968920235 3.512948717
11/15/1979 9.915918725 4.154678637
2/15/1980 10.8870996 4.859130787
5/16/1980 11.94318813 5.41268021
8/15/1980 11.5832378 5.711156363
11/15/1980 11.34800371 5.776620032
2/15/1981 10.65557094 5.738730426
5/16/1981 9.876361309 5.634784541
8/15/1981 10.31867407 5.53921852
11/15/1981 9.956170381 5.373185984
2/15/1982 9.730503984 5.065354613
5/16/1982 9.481703176 4.596877357
8/15/1982 9.112073505 4.040005222
11/15/1982 8.513853366 3.502582295
2/15/1983 8.339883365 3.055919726
5/16/1983 7.691895693 2.684390043
8/15/1983 7.403152731 2.402257377
11/15/1983 7.408514123 2.179203739
2/15/1984 7.171704101 1.959916628
5/16/1984 7.035835493 1.782903522
8/15/1984 6.81187079 1.585667311
11/15/1984 6.582290314 1.369696405
2/15/1985 6.488024007 1.162352261
5/16/1985 6.511957018 0.983464766
8/15/1985 6.371224072 0.789285292
11/15/1985 6.139424391 0.550231981
2/15/1986 5.931833989 0.296404086
5/16/1986 5.578003882 0.047034021
8/15/1986 5.598519568 -0.095780562
11/15/1986 5.571713653 -0.186672363
2/15/1987 5.485331764 -0.203315557
5/16/1987 5.749098076 -0.18247369
8/15/1987 5.862944661 -0.116383495
11/15/1987 6.055448995 -0.02066321
2/15/1988 6.18033972 0.090318815
5/16/1988 5.969488429 0.221224296
8/15/1988 5.64794402 0.359110778
11/15/1988 5.295254394 0.505631001
2/15/1989 4.829005615 0.65615687
5/16/1989 4.874410232 0.800788099
8/15/1989 4.804562247 0.938843692
11/15/1989 4.753742559 1.068351848
2/15/1990 4.990857743 1.170176459
5/16/1990 5.105489087 1.253883749
8/15/1990 5.365188498 1.309425007
11/15/1990 5.428642144 1.329935381
2/15/1991 5.481421672 1.301708077
5/16/1991 5.100386933 1.23766356
8/15/1991 4.875386566 1.153555116
11/15/1991 4.810262935 1.033220038
2/15/1992 4.389850718 0.891750951
5/16/1992 4.36799815 0.727925184
8/15/1992 4.049760304 0.533781161
11/15/1992 3.706919881 0.343919972
2/15/1993 3.708920031 0.184323385
5/16/1993 3.488736398 0.041446518
8/15/1993 3.422747835 -0.085009041
11/15/1993 3.241004376 -0.194532573
2/15/1994 2.849366088 -0.306036486
5/16/1994 2.692316514 -0.377956324
8/15/1994 2.58989062 -0.415893991
11/15/1994 2.569900202 -0.444201743
2/15/1995 2.928221701 0.216412604
5/16/1995 3.388957698 0.284818066
8/15/1995 3.554338628 0.271768856
11/15/1995 3.627349806 0.253437816
2/15/1996 3.406079133 0.199813679
5/16/1996 2.957436151 0.066860239
8/15/1996 2.720098169 -0.01846689
11/15/1996 2.60761768 -0.112359046
2/15/1997 2.442874867 -0.207500605
5/16/1997 2.469542668 -0.261669794
8/15/1997 2.397868095 -0.333233439
11/15/1997 2.373785197 -0.343050363
2/15/1998 2.311359272 -0.377320424
5/16/1998 2.157415396 -0.417710257
8/15/1998 2.084219057 -0.444602996
11/15/1998 1.980010875 -0.505367705
2/15/1999 1.832853118 -0.576050827
5/16/1999 1.735841533 -0.630769838
8/15/1999 1.654540819 -0.659178048
11/15/1999 1.608207885 -0.658159598
2/15/2000 1.670783817 -0.593307537
5/16/2000 1.673314074 -0.522573313
8/15/2000 1.832194195 -0.40782393
11/15/2000 1.841207819 -0.296456451
2/15/2001 1.985627596 -0.186192828
5/16/2001 2.11020308 -0.101422347
8/15/2001 2.079911633 -0.079576196
11/15/2001 2.072784044 -0.099415491
2/15/2002 2.001066218 -0.075083464
5/16/2002 1.980626098 -0.069985546
8/15/2002 1.897712809 -0.078630194
11/15/2002 1.8699114 -0.039255827
2/15/2003 1.730222386 -0.119729069
5/16/2003 1.497860423 -0.156623977
8/15/2003 1.363857041 -0.220342956
11/15/2003 1.259924506 -0.280800381
2/15/2004 1.309658948 -0.294665994
5/16/2004 1.50447318 -0.319167713
8/15/2004 1.534646955 -0.299831369
11/15/2004 1.645517461 -0.321270684
2/15/2005 1.709139967 -0.33309363
5/16/2005 1.529579761 -0.368378715
8/15/2005 1.503918109 -0.374245284
11/15/2005 1.504418327 -0.360262223
2/15/2006 1.45323533 -0.346556328
5/16/2006 1.664957408 -0.256621781
8/15/2006 1.797714723 -0.216445837
11/15/2006 1.795101523 -0.147022046
2/15/2007 1.888012883 -0.05645202
5/16/2007 1.824579993 -0.004033633
8/15/2007 1.791785609 0.067922785
11/15/2007 1.870165006 0.133943981
2/15/2008 1.911018293 0.228034583
5/16/2008 1.926654468 0.300902245
8/15/2008 2.116263362 0.401300218
11/15/2008 1.897519458 0.39448144
2/15/2009 1.635462112 0.197114312
5/16/2009 1.508897486 0.004604957
8/15/2009 1.1779757 -0.221095096
11/15/2009 1.185496255 -0.334574894
2/15/2010 1.145170207 -0.320318963
5/16/2010 0.930182289 -0.30725617
8/15/2010 0.905594089 -0.262103307
11/15/2010 0.923763598 -0.218092745
2/15/2011 1.139407568 -0.125072712
5/16/2011 1.423526872 -0.006066773
8/15/2011 1.59047419 0.063947209
11/15/2011 1.665670335 0.14206691
2/15/2012 1.659791713 0.123157606
5/16/2012 1.621342307 0.122925606
8/15/2012 1.49579178 0.098362832
11/15/2012 1.486657538 0.02358838
2/15/2013 1.392597237 -0.001676845
5/16/2013 1.28003552 -0.092982548
8/15/2013 1.350088087 -0.122320553
11/15/2013 1.361393821 -0.149046367
2/15/2014 1.376825575 -0.159245457
5/16/2014 1.650638003 -0.132477833
8/15/2014 1.581033086 -0.164900989
11/15/2014 1.545451339 -0.15898423
2/15/2015 1.557848015 -0.194376646
5/16/2015 1.443670124 -0.241564826
8/15/2015 1.524686476 -0.220662264
11/15/2015 1.556249109 -0.224240594
2/15/2016 1.593691489 -0.213422588
5/16/2016 1.541254047 -0.197816544
8/15/2016 1.534625257 -0.162830286
11/15/2016 1.472336887 -0.144379025
2/15/2017 1.475133482 -0.105097053
5/16/2017 1.435821037 -0.046974486
8/15/2017 1.412531707 -0.061909967
11/15/2017 1.442110536 -0.092544231
2/15/2018 1.511923656 -0.072253516
5/16/2018 1.577440916 -0.078115065
8/15/2018 1.581534595 -0.031703636
11/15/2018 1.557318336 0.004585641
2/15/2019 1.484589368 0.022615448
5/16/2019 1.545552739 0.090907588
8/15/2019 1.62845422 0.108682585
11/15/2019 1.685271393 0.149450298
2/15/2020 1.632490581 -0.558566761
5/16/2020 0.996149529 -0.37187317
8/15/2020 1.054760413 -0.219558945
11/15/2020 1.036333808 0.046250701
2/15/2021 1.20162597 0.40459896
5/16/2021 2.067165207 0.851559354
8/15/2021 2.42742225 1.348983607
11/15/2021 3.0958071 1.862014929
2/15/2022 3.846242867 2.356638376
5/16/2022 4.401263671 2.797422117
8/15/2022 4.893322273 3.128215169
11/15/2022 5.060086612 3.288669225
2/15/2023 4.965319171 3.243847468
5/16/2023 4.811531683 3.014224345
8/15/2023 4.251233338 2.642899691
11/15/2023 3.76405288 2.180823292
2/15/2024 3.411076398 1.659165292

Note: World core inflation is the gross domestic product (GDP)-weighted, 4-quarter percent change of core consumer price indexes for selected economies. Global component is the GDP-weighted aggregate of each economy's common component.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 4: Share of Global vs. Idiosyncratic Components

1972-1978 Period
Percent

Date Share Explained by Global Component (right scale) Share Explained by Idiosyncratic Component (right scale) Core World Inflation (left scale)
7/1/1972 11% 89% 4.775229796
10/1/1972 14% 86% 5.032468603
1/1/1973 20% 80% 5.272248829
4/1/1973 30% 70% 6.205934143
7/1/1973 38% 62% 6.791080275
10/1/1973 46% 54% 7.799055649
1/1/1974 54% 46% 9.262356714
4/1/1974 57% 43% 10.30364359
7/1/1974 62% 38% 11.62907993
10/1/1974 62% 38% 12.55887188
1/1/1975 61% 39% 12.09622337
4/1/1975 56% 44% 11.51949048
7/1/1975 54% 46% 10.30100357
10/1/1975 49% 51% 9.087465408
1/1/1976 47% 53% 9.070619118
4/1/1976 44% 56% 8.549924578
7/1/1976 43% 57% 8.519750704
10/1/1976 40% 60% 8.799945408
1/1/1977 37% 63% 9.333865062
4/1/1977 37% 63% 9.267665067
7/1/1977 38% 62% 8.91312882
10/1/1977 40% 60% 8.141424493
1/1/1978 37% 63% 7.598803283
4/1/1978 35% 65% 7.304100128

Note: World core inflation is the gross domestic product (GDP)-weighted, 4-quarter percent change of core consumer price indexes for selected economies. Global component is the GDP-weighted aggregate of each economy's common component.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

1978-1986 Period
Percent

Date Share Explained by Global Component (right scale) Share Explained by Idiosyncratic Component (right scale) Core World Inflation (left scale)
7/1/1978 34% 66% 7.465386015
10/1/1978 34% 66% 7.694298856
1/1/1979 32% 68% 8.192137035
4/1/1979 35% 65% 8.357306273
7/1/1979 39% 61% 8.950300753
10/1/1979 42% 58% 9.851615147
1/1/1980 45% 55% 10.87894481
4/1/1980 46% 54% 11.89083532
7/1/1980 50% 50% 11.53319978
10/1/1980 52% 48% 11.28921085
1/1/1981 55% 45% 10.56902589
4/1/1981 53% 47% 9.827232956
7/1/1981 55% 45% 10.28162672
10/1/1981 55% 45% 9.919770956
1/1/1982 53% 47% 9.673333304
4/1/1982 50% 50% 9.406124785
7/1/1982 46% 54% 9.067540681
10/1/1982 43% 57% 8.466170264
1/1/1983 38% 62% 8.253475017
4/1/1983 36% 64% 7.680813238
7/1/1983 34% 66% 7.369709684
10/1/1983 31% 69% 7.341115565
1/1/1984 29% 71% 7.174629485
4/1/1984 27% 73% 7.021252547
7/1/1984 25% 75% 6.780829065
10/1/1984 22% 78% 6.55948145
1/1/1985 20% 80% 6.398146329
4/1/1985 17% 83% 6.402895444
7/1/1985 14% 86% 6.227245391
10/1/1985 10% 90% 6.046280725
1/1/1986 6% 94% 5.889864852
4/1/1986 2% 98% 5.538307131
7/1/1986 1% 99% 5.561094201
10/1/1986 2% 98% 5.569512476

Note: World core inflation is the gross domestic product (GDP)-weighted, 4-quarter percent change of core consumer price indexes for selected economies. Global component is the GDP-weighted aggregate of each economy's common component.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

2020-2024 Period
Percent

Date Share Explained by Global Component (right scale) Share Explained by Idiosyncratic Component (right scale) Core World Inflation (left scale)
7/1/2020 24% 76% 1.036182606
10/1/2020 13% 87% 1.031029958
1/1/2021 2% 98% 1.176436756
4/1/2021 20% 80% 2.156526416
7/1/2021 30% 70% 2.497233886
10/1/2021 40% 60% 3.117913093
1/1/2022 48% 52% 3.848490883
4/1/2022 53% 47% 4.336863215
7/1/2022 56% 44% 4.810789212
10/1/2022 57% 43% 4.965208249
1/1/2023 56% 44% 4.949973498
4/1/2023 52% 48% 4.847882719
7/1/2023 51% 49% 4.301404474
10/1/2023 46% 54% 3.753287573
1/1/2024 38% 62% 3.376405314
4/1/2024 26% 74% 2.966035107

Note: World core inflation is the gross domestic product (GDP)-weighted, 4-quarter percent change of core consumer price indexes for selected economies. Global component is the GDP-weighted aggregate of each economy's common component.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 5: Dispersion in Inflation Across Countries

Price categories
Dispersion

Date Headline Core Goods Core Services
1/1/2019 0.8595532 1.047277 0.7792478
2/1/2019 0.8671854 1.0322 0.6729439
3/1/2019 0.8723319 0.9062186 0.8830287
4/1/2019 0.9089217 0.8404329 0.938725
5/1/2019 0.8473731 0.8856952 0.8824172
6/1/2019 0.7991746 0.9067203 0.7581663
7/1/2019 0.7997172 0.9582384 0.9953388
8/1/2019 1.096696 1.047771 1.064628
9/1/2019 0.9840901 0.8762149 1.032921
10/1/2019 1.034486 0.8364129 0.9568579
11/1/2019 0.9859504 0.9734938 0.8590712
12/1/2019 1.005295 0.9774913 0.9659756
1/1/2020 1.21058 0.9138877 1.380148
2/1/2020 1.210841 0.9516833 1.370458
3/1/2020 1.259654 1.124258 1.445818
4/1/2020 1.926847 1.372552 1.75166
5/1/2020 1.692987 1.700177 2.008928
6/1/2020 1.344025 1.558264 2.323877
7/1/2020 1.970963 3.366389 2.438961
8/1/2020 1.81517 1.80187 1.981869
9/1/2020 1.985833 1.983329 1.984599
10/1/2020 1.761534 1.870929 1.866581
11/1/2020 1.878984 1.995147 1.915055
12/1/2020 1.969805 2.05262 2.079082
1/1/2021 1.592315 1.812308 2.24227
2/1/2021 1.92418 2.026644 2.614557
3/1/2021 1.941776 1.907403 2.396972
4/1/2021 2.01361 2.157877 2.290147
5/1/2021 1.956692 2.878428 2.256795
6/1/2021 2.136655 3.693537 2.178259
7/1/2021 2.430195 4.489644 2.063818
8/1/2021 2.364113 3.790508 2.053925
9/1/2021 2.620725 3.672654 2.327178
10/1/2021 3.058335 4.00225 2.539953
11/1/2021 3.332993 4.407899 2.48442
12/1/2021 3.492144 4.944214 2.602354
1/1/2022 4.268017 4.995856 2.318012
2/1/2022 4.859684 5.232138 2.58229
3/1/2022 6.137288 5.169584 2.734697
4/1/2022 6.625589 4.719356 3.06416
5/1/2022 7.351207 4.626022 3.190017
6/1/2022 8.216197 4.615787 3.313388
7/1/2022 8.379418 4.967128 3.553878
8/1/2022 9.080341 5.364305 3.66604
9/1/2022 10.51898 5.671676 3.597188
10/1/2022 11.07485 5.860983 4.034429
11/1/2022 10.81861 6.08345 4.118277
12/1/2022 11.10689 6.524996 4.509005
1/1/2023 11.18159 7.575969 4.704248
2/1/2023 11.05768 7.778291 4.940476
3/1/2023 10.58406 7.114526 4.979567
4/1/2023 9.901382 6.617736 5.560493
5/1/2023 9.005942 6.15992 5.637434
6/1/2023 8.658819 5.954518 5.646748
7/1/2023 7.724978 5.991452 5.899371
8/1/2023 7.030005 5.658015 5.339043
9/1/2023 6.659461 4.878305 5.199663
10/1/2023 6.146522 4.308262 4.902568
11/1/2023 4.915005 3.428876 4.840999
12/1/2023 4.421083 3.41161 4.682931

Note: Dispersion is measured as the standard deviation across countries of standardized inflation using the pre-COVID (2017-19) mean and standard deviation per country. A value of 1 means the dispersion across countries in the level of inflation is identical to the pre-COVID level. Higher values imply there are more differences across countries compared with the pre-COVID trend.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 6: Overview of Economic Indicators since 2005

Real GDP
2019:Q4 = 100

Date United Kingdom United States Euro Area Canada
Feb-16 93.39 90.70 93.34 91.86
May-16 93.92 90.99 93.54 91.40
Aug-16 94.27 91.63 93.99 92.35
Nov-16 94.87 92.14 94.73 92.87
Feb-17 95.67 92.59 95.39 94.04
May-17 96.28 93.11 96.15 95.03
Aug-17 96.90 93.84 96.87 95.06
Nov-17 97.60 94.90 97.64 95.54
Feb-18 97.65 95.67 97.64 96.65
May-18 97.81 96.18 98.19 97.40
Aug-18 98.14 96.78 98.16 97.89
Nov-18 98.26 96.92 98.84 98.12
Feb-19 98.98 97.44 99.44 98.36
May-19 99.30 98.25 99.79 99.44
Aug-19 100.02 99.36 99.95 99.72
Nov-19 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Feb-20 97.28 98.64 96.57 98.05
May-20 77.51 90.85 85.67 87.26
Aug-20 90.51 97.90 96.01 95.19
Nov-20 91.74 98.92 95.99 96.98
Feb-21 90.80 100.19 96.39 98.38
May-21 97.45 101.71 98.41 98.07
Aug-21 99.13 102.54 100.46 99.72
Nov-21 100.63 104.28 101.02 101.28
Feb-22 101.17 103.76 101.64 102.26
May-22 101.25 103.61 102.47 103.22
Aug-22 101.17 104.30 102.95 103.69
Nov-22 101.28 104.96 102.94 103.47
Feb-23 101.51 105.54 102.99 104.13
May-23 101.52 106.08 103.13 104.30
Aug-23 101.39 107.35 103.06 104.17
Nov-23 101.04 108.20 103.02 104.42
Feb-24 102.41 109.85 103.66 104.95
May-24 102.88 110.67 103.85 105.48

Note: The data extend through 2024:Q2. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Final Consumption
2019:Q4 = 100

Date United Kingdom Canada United States Euro Area
Feb-16 94.54 91.26 91.44 94.69
May-16 95.16 91.84 91.84 94.97
Aug-16 95.81 92.29 92.45 95.34
Nov-16 95.74 92.82 92.84 95.89
Feb-17 96.32 93.79 93.36 96.15
May-17 96.44 94.70 93.74 96.57
Aug-17 97.02 95.56 94.27 97.11
Nov-17 97.41 96.18 95.20 97.50
Feb-18 97.83 96.90 95.80 97.86
May-18 97.75 97.57 96.30 98.12
Aug-18 98.47 98.06 96.80 98.11
Nov-18 99.57 98.25 97.12 98.57
Feb-19 99.82 98.52 97.36 99.18
May-19 100.43 98.68 98.33 99.34
Aug-19 100.22 99.24 99.34 99.93
Nov-19 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Feb-20 97.01 98.45 98.77 96.75
May-20 75.42 87.39 92.19 87.16
Aug-20 90.00 96.54 98.44 97.44
Nov-20 89.96 97.29 99.38 95.76
Feb-21 87.85 97.88 101.53 94.61
May-21 97.29 97.94 104.05 97.35
Aug-21 99.65 101.43 104.64 100.58
Nov-21 100.14 102.12 105.48 100.92
Feb-22 100.97 102.91 105.35 101.01
May-22 100.61 104.53 105.71 101.51
Aug-22 100.04 105.02 106.15 102.37
Nov-22 99.84 105.06 106.55 101.99
Feb-23 100.30 105.86 107.58 101.96
May-23 101.26 105.77 107.80 102.11
Aug-23 100.91 106.36 108.68 102.53
Nov-23 100.73 106.42 109.41 102.75
Feb-24 103.78 107.65 110.96 103.76
May-24 103.55 108.20 111.70 103.91

Note: The data extend through 2024:Q2. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Investment
2019:Q4 = 100, 4-quarter m.a.

Date United Kingdom Canada United States Euro Area
Feb-16 94.79 92.99 87.88 85.62
May-16 94.85 91.69 87.72 85.65
Aug-16 96.63 91.76 87.57 86.61
Nov-16 95.20 91.03 88.08 87.55
Feb-17 95.45 92.19 88.56 87.97
May-17 97.12 93.37 89.49 90.42
Aug-17 96.05 95.06 90.68 91.33
Nov-17 97.14 97.81 91.80 91.86
Feb-18 97.53 99.55 93.26 92.59
May-18 97.52 100.76 94.44 91.98
Aug-18 97.39 100.65 95.92 93.06
Nov-18 97.52 100.06 96.90 94.88
Feb-19 102.48 99.93 97.85 95.84
May-19 102.81 99.41 98.88 98.09
Aug-19 103.30 99.61 99.55 98.43
Nov-19 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Feb-20 94.13 99.22 99.75 101.65
May-20 84.81 93.96 96.47 96.94
Aug-20 82.92 91.59 96.15 95.07
Nov-20 88.84 91.08 96.78 92.49
Feb-21 90.69 91.80 97.58 91.50
May-21 97.21 98.19 100.90 94.95
Aug-21 99.92 100.63 101.71 96.50
Nov-21 96.18 103.08 103.18 97.96
Feb-22 100.26 105.24 105.24 98.63
May-22 106.22 107.58 106.97 99.69
Aug-22 103.75 110.67 107.58 101.74
Nov-22 102.99 110.56 107.15 102.13
Feb-23 99.17 108.93 105.93 102.09
May-23 96.80 106.71 105.82 102.35
Aug-23 99.53 104.42 106.76 101.78
Nov-23 102.68 103.13 107.59 101.50
Feb-24 95.27 103.19 111.42 98.69
May-24 98.21 102.33 113.04 96.92

Note: The data extend through 2024:Q2. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 7: New Business Registrations

2019:Q4 = 100

Date Euro Area United States
Mar-15 76.94300518 78.88299337
Jun-15 76.42487047 76.11735348
Sep-15 77.54749568 78.51099898
Dec-15 77.54749568 77.87553154
Mar-16 77.72020725 81.39905624
Jun-16 78.6701209 78.92214487
Sep-16 76.59758204 84.25038829
Dec-16 75.64766839 83.65120491
Mar-17 78.0656304 86.63013777
Jun-17 76.25215889 87.2241377
Sep-17 77.80656304 87.9257767
Dec-17 78.58376511 90.81758368
Mar-18 80.31088083 96.0682961
Jun-18 80.05181347 96.61465252
Sep-18 78.84283247 96.77302309
Dec-18 81.6925734 96.53866552
Mar-19 86.18307427 96.58366218
Jun-19 82.81519862 96.14295966
Sep-19 84.11053541 95.27787694
Dec-19 84.54231434 99.99998897
Mar-20 76.16580311 93.02065512
Jun-20 58.80829016 100.429332
Sep-20 85.66493955 161.6396692
Dec-20 84.02417962 127.8599757
Mar-21 83.67875648 150.8912039
Jun-21 88.25561313 159.7060263
Sep-21 85.83765112 143.4053269
Dec-21 87.56476684 142.4268702
Mar-22 85.14680484 140.1932496
Jun-22 85.14680484 139.7298282
Sep-22 85.57858377 139.709315
Dec-22 86.35578584 141.0572295
Mar-23 88.34196891 146.6757454
Jun-23 92.57340242 150.048399
Sep-23 91.36442142 155.9011622
Dec-23 89.55094991 153.0880994
Mar-24 91.96891192 145.0608287
Jun-24 90.2417962 141.6804552
Sep-24 NA 141.1872566

Note: Data extend through 2024:Q3 for the U.S., and 2024:Q2 for the euro area. Euro area series is business registrations. U.S. series is applications for employer identification numbers.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 8: TFP Cumulatiuve Growth 2019-22
  U.S. Euro area Canada U.K.
Percent change 2.14297 0.78476 -0.14726 -1.47761

Note: TFP is total factor productivity.

Source: Long Term Productivity Database; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 9: Contribution to Cumulative GDP Growth (2019:Q4 to 2023:Q4)

Percentage points

  Canada Euro Area U.K. U.S.
Output 4.465817783 3.327226119 1.705774447 9.412007787
Output per hour -0.039855547 0.982962425 2.042472132 6.936116757
Hours per employee -1.426116542 -1.353639096 -1.007735312 1.370901863
Employment 5.931789872 3.69790279 0.671037627 1.104989168

Note: Output per hour is gross domestice product (GDP) divided by total hours worked. Employment is all employed persons in the euro area and U.S., those aged 15 or older in Canada, and those aged 16 or older in the U.K.. Hours per employee is the total number of hours worked divided by employment.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 10: Civilian Unemployment Rate

Percent of labor force

Date Canada Euro Area United Kingdom United States
Jan-05 6.90 9.30 4.80 5.30
Feb-05 7.00 9.30 4.70 5.40
Mar-05 6.90 9.30 4.70 5.20
Apr-05 6.70 9.40 4.80 5.20
May-05 7.00 9.30 4.80 5.10
Jun-05 6.80 9.30 4.70 5.00
Jul-05 6.70 9.20 4.70 5.00
Aug-05 6.70 9.20 4.70 4.90
Sep-05 6.70 9.20 4.90 5.00
Oct-05 6.70 9.20 5.10 5.00
Nov-05 6.30 9.10 5.10 5.00
Dec-05 6.60 9.10 5.10 4.90
Jan-06 6.70 9.00 5.20 4.70
Feb-06 6.60 8.90 5.20 4.80
Mar-06 6.50 8.80 5.30 4.70
Apr-06 6.50 8.70 5.40 4.70
May-06 6.20 8.60 5.50 4.60
Jun-06 6.30 8.50 5.50 4.60
Jul-06 6.50 8.40 5.50 4.70
Aug-06 6.50 8.40 5.50 4.70
Sep-06 6.50 8.30 5.50 4.50
Oct-06 6.30 8.20 5.40 4.40
Nov-06 6.50 8.20 5.50 4.50
Dec-06 6.30 8.00 5.50 4.40
Jan-07 6.40 8.00 5.50 4.60
Feb-07 6.30 7.90 5.50 4.50
Mar-07 6.30 7.80 5.50 4.40
Apr-07 6.30 7.70 5.40 4.50
May-07 6.20 7.70 5.40 4.40
Jun-07 6.10 7.60 5.30 4.60
Jul-07 6.00 7.60 5.30 4.70
Aug-07 6.00 7.60 5.30 4.60
Sep-07 6.00 7.50 5.20 4.70
Oct-07 6.00 7.50 5.20 4.70
Nov-07 6.10 7.40 5.20 4.70
Dec-07 6.20 7.40 5.20 5.00
Jan-08 6.10 7.40 5.20 5.00
Feb-08 6.10 7.40 5.20 4.90
Mar-08 6.20 7.30 5.30 5.10
Apr-08 6.20 7.50 5.20 5.00
May-08 6.20 7.50 5.40 5.40
Jun-08 6.10 7.60 5.50 5.60
Jul-08 6.20 7.60 5.70 5.80
Aug-08 6.20 7.70 5.90 6.10
Sep-08 6.30 7.80 6.00 6.10
Oct-08 6.40 7.90 6.20 6.50
Nov-08 6.70 8.10 6.40 6.80
Dec-08 7.00 8.40 6.50 7.30
Jan-09 7.50 8.70 6.70 7.80
Feb-09 8.10 9.10 7.10 8.30
Mar-09 8.30 9.30 7.30 8.70
Apr-09 8.40 9.50 7.60 9.00
May-09 8.60 9.60 7.80 9.40
Jun-09 8.80 9.70 7.90 9.50
Jul-09 8.80 9.80 7.90 9.50
Aug-09 8.80 9.90 7.80 9.60
Sep-09 8.50 10.00 7.90 9.80
Oct-09 8.50 10.10 7.80 10.00
Nov-09 8.60 10.10 7.80 9.90
Dec-09 8.60 10.10 7.70 9.90
Jan-10 8.40 10.20 7.90 9.80
Feb-10 8.40 10.30 8.00 9.80
Mar-10 8.30 10.30 8.00 9.90
Apr-10 8.20 10.40 7.90 9.90
May-10 8.10 10.30 7.90 9.60
Jun-10 8.00 10.30 7.80 9.40
Jul-10 8.20 10.30 7.80 9.40
Aug-10 8.20 10.20 7.80 9.50
Sep-10 8.20 10.20 7.90 9.50
Oct-10 8.10 10.30 7.90 9.40
Nov-10 7.80 10.20 7.90 9.80
Dec-10 7.80 10.20 7.90 9.30
Jan-11 7.80 10.10 7.80 9.10
Feb-11 7.80 10.10 7.80 9.00
Mar-11 7.80 10.10 7.70 9.00
Apr-11 7.80 10.00 7.80 9.10
May-11 7.70 10.10 7.90 9.00
Jun-11 7.70 10.10 8.00 9.10
Jul-11 7.40 10.20 8.20 9.00
Aug-11 7.40 10.30 8.30 9.00
Sep-11 7.40 10.50 8.40 9.00
Oct-11 7.50 10.60 8.50 8.80
Nov-11 7.60 10.70 8.40 8.60
Dec-11 7.50 10.80 8.40 8.50
Jan-12 7.70 10.90 8.30 8.30
Feb-12 7.60 11.00 8.20 8.30
Mar-12 7.30 11.20 8.20 8.20
Apr-12 7.40 11.30 8.10 8.20
May-12 7.50 11.40 8.00 8.20
Jun-12 7.40 11.50 8.00 8.20
Jul-12 7.30 11.60 7.90 8.20
Aug-12 7.40 11.60 7.90 8.10
Sep-12 7.40 11.70 7.90 7.80
Oct-12 7.40 11.90 7.80 7.80
Nov-12 7.30 12.00 7.80 7.70
Dec-12 7.20 12.00 7.80 7.90
Jan-13 7.10 12.20 8.00 8.00
Feb-13 7.00 12.20 7.90 7.70
Mar-13 7.30 12.20 7.80 7.50
Apr-13 7.20 12.20 7.80 7.60
May-13 7.00 12.20 7.80 7.50
Jun-13 7.20 12.20 7.70 7.50
Jul-13 7.30 12.10 7.70 7.30
Aug-13 7.20 12.10 7.60 7.20
Sep-13 7.10 12.10 7.40 7.20
Oct-13 7.20 12.10 7.20 7.20
Nov-13 7.10 12.10 7.20 6.90
Dec-13 7.40 12.00 7.20 6.70
Jan-14 7.20 12.00 6.90 6.60
Feb-14 7.20 12.00 6.80 6.70
Mar-14 7.10 11.90 6.60 6.70
Apr-14 7.10 11.80 6.50 6.20
May-14 7.30 11.80 6.30 6.30
Jun-14 7.10 11.60 6.20 6.10
Jul-14 7.10 11.70 6.00 6.20
Aug-14 7.00 11.60 6.00 6.10
Sep-14 7.00 11.60 6.00 5.90
Oct-14 6.80 11.60 5.90 5.70
Nov-14 6.80 11.60 5.70 5.80
Dec-14 6.70 11.50 5.70 5.60
Jan-15 6.80 11.40 5.60 5.70
Feb-15 6.90 11.30 5.60 5.50
Mar-15 6.80 11.30 5.50 5.40
Apr-15 6.90 11.20 5.70 5.40
May-15 6.80 11.10 5.60 5.60
Jun-15 6.90 11.10 5.60 5.30
Jul-15 6.90 10.90 5.40 5.20
Aug-15 7.00 10.80 5.40 5.10
Sep-15 7.10 10.70 5.20 5.00
Oct-15 7.00 10.70 5.10 5.00
Nov-15 7.10 10.60 5.10 5.10
Dec-15 7.20 10.60 5.10 5.00
Jan-16 7.30 10.50 5.20 4.80
Feb-16 7.30 10.40 5.10 4.90
Mar-16 7.20 10.30 5.10 5.00
Apr-16 7.30 10.30 5.00 5.10
May-16 7.00 10.20 5.00 4.80
Jun-16 6.90 10.20 4.90 4.90
Jul-16 6.90 10.00 5.00 4.80
Aug-16 6.90 10.00 4.90 4.90
Sep-16 7.00 9.90 4.90 5.00
Oct-16 6.90 9.90 4.90 4.90
Nov-16 6.80 9.90 4.80 4.70
Dec-16 6.90 9.70 4.80 4.70
Jan-17 6.80 9.60 4.70 4.70
Feb-17 6.60 9.50 4.60 4.60
Mar-17 6.70 9.50 4.60 4.40
Apr-17 6.50 9.30 4.50 4.40
May-17 6.60 9.30 4.50 4.40
Jun-17 6.50 9.10 4.40 4.30
Jul-17 6.30 9.10 4.40 4.30
Aug-17 6.20 9.00 4.30 4.40
Sep-17 6.20 8.90 4.30 4.30
Oct-17 6.40 8.80 4.30 4.20
Nov-17 6.10 8.70 4.40 4.20
Dec-17 6.00 8.70 4.40 4.10
Jan-18 5.90 8.70 4.30 4.00
Feb-18 6.00 8.60 4.30 4.10
Mar-18 5.80 8.50 4.30 4.00
Apr-18 5.80 8.40 4.20 4.00
May-18 5.90 8.30 4.10 3.80
Jun-18 6.00 8.20 4.10 4.00
Jul-18 5.90 8.10 4.10 3.80
Aug-18 6.00 8.00 4.20 3.80
Sep-18 5.80 8.00 4.10 3.70
Oct-18 5.70 8.00 4.10 3.80
Nov-18 5.70 7.90 4.10 3.80
Dec-18 5.70 7.90 4.00 3.90
Jan-19 5.70 7.90 4.00 4.00
Feb-19 5.80 7.80 3.90 3.80
Mar-19 5.90 7.70 3.90 3.80
Apr-19 5.70 7.70 3.90 3.70
May-19 5.40 7.60 4.00 3.60
Jun-19 5.60 7.50 3.90 3.60
Jul-19 5.80 7.50 4.00 3.70
Aug-19 5.80 7.50 3.90 3.60
Sep-19 5.60 7.40 3.90 3.50
Oct-19 5.60 7.40 3.90 3.60
Nov-19 5.90 7.50 3.90 3.60
Dec-19 5.60 7.50 4.00 3.60
Jan-20 5.50 7.50 4.10 3.60
Feb-20 5.70 7.30 4.10 3.50
Mar-20 8.40 7.20 4.20 4.40
Apr-20 13.60 7.40 4.20 14.80
May-20 14.10 7.60 4.20 13.20
Jun-20 12.40 8.10 4.40 11.00
Jul-20 11.00 8.50 4.70 10.20
Aug-20 10.20 8.60 5.00 8.40
Sep-20 9.20 8.60 5.20 7.80
Oct-20 9.00 8.40 5.20 6.80
Nov-20 8.70 8.20 5.30 6.70
Dec-20 8.90 8.20 5.30 6.70
Jan-21 9.20 8.20 5.20 6.40
Feb-21 8.50 8.20 5.10 6.20
Mar-21 7.70 8.20 5.00 6.10
Apr-21 8.20 8.30 5.00 6.10
May-21 8.30 8.10 4.80 5.80
Jun-21 7.90 7.90 4.70 5.90
Jul-21 7.40 7.70 4.60 5.40
Aug-21 7.10 7.50 4.40 5.10
Sep-21 7.00 7.40 4.30 4.70
Oct-21 6.50 7.20 4.20 4.50
Nov-21 6.10 7.10 4.20 4.10
Dec-21 5.90 7.00 4.10 3.90
Jan-22 6.50 6.90 4.00 4.00
Feb-22 5.50 6.80 3.90 3.80
Mar-22 5.40 6.80 4.00 3.60
Apr-22 5.30 6.70 3.90 3.70
May-22 5.20 6.70 3.90 3.60
Jun-22 5.00 6.70 3.70 3.60
Jul-22 4.80 6.70 3.60 3.50
Aug-22 5.20 6.70 3.80 3.60
Sep-22 5.10 6.70 3.90 3.50
Oct-22 5.10 6.60 3.80 3.60
Nov-22 5.10 6.60 3.90 3.60
Dec-22 5.00 6.70 3.80 3.50
Jan-23 5.00 6.60 3.90 3.40
Feb-23 5.10 6.60 4.00 3.60
Mar-23 5.10 6.50 3.90 3.50
Apr-23 5.10 6.50 4.00 3.40
May-23 5.30 6.50 4.20 3.70
Jun-23 5.40 6.50 4.30 3.60
Jul-23 5.50 6.50 4.20 3.50
Aug-23 5.50 6.50 4.10 3.80
Sep-23 5.60 6.50 4.00 3.80
Oct-23 5.70 6.60 3.90 3.80
Nov-23 5.80 6.50 3.80 3.70
Dec-23 5.80 6.50 4.00 3.70
Jan-24 4.2 5.7 6.5 3.7
Feb-24 4.3 5.8 6.5 3.9
Mar-24 4.4 6.1 6.5 3.8
Apr-24 4.4 6.1 6.4 3.9
May-24 4.2 6.2 6.5 4
Jun-24 4.1 6.4 6.5 4.1
Jul-24 NA 6.4 6.4 4.3
Aug-24 NA 6.6 6.4 4.2
Sep-24 NA NA NA 4.1

Note: Latest values are September for the U.S. and August for Canada and the euro area; the U.K. is a 3-month moving average with July as the end point.

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 11: Sectoral Reallocation Index

Index

Date Euro Area United States
Feb-05 0.00 0.00
May-05 0.01 0.00
Aug-05 0.01 0.00
Nov-05 0.01 0.00
Feb-06 0.01 0.00
May-06 0.01 0.00
Aug-06 0.01 0.00
Nov-06 0.01 0.00
Feb-07 0.01 0.01
May-07 0.01 0.01
Aug-07 0.00 0.01
Nov-07 0.01 0.01
Feb-08 0.00 0.01
May-08 0.00 0.01
Aug-08 0.01 0.01
Nov-08 0.01 0.01
Feb-09 0.01 0.02
May-09 0.01 0.02
Aug-09 0.01 0.01
Nov-09 0.01 0.01
Feb-10 0.01 0.01
May-10 0.01 0.00
Aug-10 0.01 0.00
Nov-10 0.00 0.00
Feb-11 0.00 0.01
May-11 0.00 0.00
Aug-11 0.00 0.00
Nov-11 0.00 0.00
Feb-12 0.00 0.00
May-12 0.00 0.00
Aug-12 0.00 0.00
Nov-12 0.00 0.00
Feb-13 0.01 0.00
May-13 0.01 0.00
Aug-13 0.00 0.00
Nov-13 0.00 0.00
Feb-14 0.00 0.00
May-14 0.00 0.00
Aug-14 0.00 0.00
Nov-14 0.00 0.00
Feb-15 0.00 0.00
May-15 0.00 0.00
Aug-15 0.00 0.00
Nov-15 0.00 0.00
Feb-16 0.00 0.00
May-16 0.00 0.00
Aug-16 0.00 0.00
Nov-16 0.00 0.00
Feb-17 0.00 0.00
May-17 0.00 0.00
Aug-17 0.00 0.00
Nov-17 0.00 0.00
Feb-18 0.00 0.00
May-18 0.00 0.00
Aug-18 0.00 0.00
Nov-18 0.00 0.00
Feb-19 0.00 0.00
May-19 0.00 0.00
Aug-19 0.00 0.00
Nov-19 0.00 0.00
Feb-20 0.01 0.03
May-20 0.01 0.02
Aug-20 0.01 0.01
Nov-20 0.01 0.01
Feb-21 0.01 0.02
May-21 0.00 0.01
Aug-21 0.00 0.01
Nov-21 0.01 0.01
Feb-22 0.01 0.01
May-22 0.00 0.01
Aug-22 0.00 0.00
Nov-22 0.00 0.00
Feb-23 0.00 0.00
May-23 0.00 0.00
Aug-23 0.00 0.00

Note: The reallocation index is calculated using year-over-year growth rates of employment from Standard Industrial Classification system.

Source: Statistical Office of European Communities; Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 12: Net Migration over 2022 and 2023
  Canada Germany U.K. U.S.
Percent of 2021 Population 5.392044 2.528241 1.914757 1.836846

Source: National sources via Haver Analytics; Congressional Budget Office; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 13: Employment Rate of Refugees

Percent

Years since arrival Canada Germany U.K. U.S.
0 NA 3.977179155 23.06916267 33.84940326
1 NA 4.354436696 31.33021891 53.97571325
2 47.89058914 13.53529841 38.09446096 61.19084954
3 51.02719033 24.32782352 40.0000006 57.27263689
4 55.37423313 27.1310389 43.68485212 66.33694172
5 56.84369449 28.08659375 52.03146338 61.99353337
6 58.75848364 NA NA 65.01876712
7 59.85579937 NA NA 66.59864783
8 63.19624523 NA NA 65.5875504
9 64.38811285 NA NA 63.95496726
10 66.9980015 NA NA 73.4836936

Source: Brell, Dustmann, and Preston (2020).

Last Update: October 08, 2024