Accessible Version

Accessible Version

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking

Adriana D. Kugler
Member
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

At

The Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies and
The Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance
Princeton University

April 2, 2025

Figure 1: Inflation and Inflation Expectations

Percent
Monthly

Make Full Screen
Date PCE Headline Inflation, 12-month percent change U. of Michigan Inflation Expectations, 1-Year Ahead U. of Michigan Inflation Expectations, during the next 5 to 10 years
1/16/1977 5.3 NA NA
2/13/1977 6.0 NA NA
3/16/1977 6.3 NA NA
4/15/1977 6.7 NA NA
5/16/1977 6.7 NA NA
6/15/1977 6.9 NA NA
7/16/1977 6.9 NA NA
8/16/1977 6.8 NA NA
9/15/1977 6.6 NA NA
10/16/1977 6.5 NA NA
11/15/1977 6.7 NA NA
12/16/1977 6.6 NA NA
1/16/1978 6.6 5.2 NA
2/13/1978 6.3 6.4 NA
3/16/1978 6.4 6.3 NA
4/15/1978 6.6 6.7 NA
5/16/1978 6.8 6.9 NA
6/15/1978 6.9 6.5 NA
7/16/1978 7.0 6.6 NA
8/16/1978 7.0 8.7 NA
9/15/1978 7.2 6.9 NA
10/16/1978 7.6 7.4 NA
11/15/1978 7.5 7.5 NA
12/16/1978 7.5 7.3 NA
1/16/1979 7.7 7.8 NA
2/13/1979 7.8 9.3 7.2
3/16/1979 7.9 8.8 NA
4/15/1979 8.2 9.7 NA
5/16/1979 8.6 9.8 NA
6/15/1979 8.8 9.9 NA
7/16/1979 9.0 9.9 NA
8/16/1979 9.3 9.9 NA
9/15/1979 9.6 9.6 NA
10/16/1979 9.6 9 NA
11/15/1979 9.8 10 NA
12/16/1979 10.2 9.9 NA
1/16/1980 10.5 10.4 NA
2/14/1980 11.1 10 9.7
3/16/1980 11.6 10.2 NA
4/15/1980 11.0 10.1 NA
5/16/1980 10.7 8.6 NA
6/15/1980 10.5 8.5 NA
7/16/1980 10.5 9.6 NA
8/16/1980 10.6 7.6 8.7
9/15/1980 10.7 9.1 9.3
10/16/1980 10.6 9.6 NA
11/15/1980 10.8 8.6 NA
12/16/1980 10.6 9.7 NA
1/16/1981 10.5 9.5 7.4
2/13/1981 10.4 8.6 6.7
3/16/1981 9.8 7.2 5.9
4/15/1981 9.7 8 NA
5/16/1981 9.4 7.3 NA
6/15/1981 9.1 7.1 NA
7/16/1981 8.9 6.8 5.8
8/16/1981 8.7 5.8 6.7
9/15/1981 8.4 6.9 6.5
10/16/1981 8.0 6.7 NA
11/15/1981 7.7 7.3 NA
12/16/1981 7.3 5.3 NA
1/16/1982 6.9 5.1 6.1
2/13/1982 6.2 5.2 5.9
3/16/1982 5.7 4.2 5
4/15/1982 5.3 4.7 NA
5/16/1982 5.5 3.5 NA
6/15/1982 5.8 4.6 NA
7/16/1982 5.8 5 5.3
8/16/1982 5.5 4.8 5.4
9/15/1982 5.1 4.5 5.1
10/16/1982 5.2 4.7 NA
11/15/1982 5.0 4.5 NA
12/16/1982 4.8 3.7 NA
1/16/1983 4.7 2.8 5
2/13/1983 4.5 3 4.8
3/16/1983 4.4 1.8 4.9
4/15/1983 4.8 3.4 NA
5/16/1983 4.5 3.2 NA
6/15/1983 4.1 3.2 NA
7/16/1983 4.1 3.2 5
8/16/1983 4.2 3.3 4.9
9/15/1983 4.3 3.3 5
10/16/1983 3.9 3.7 NA
11/15/1983 3.7 3.5 NA
12/16/1983 3.6 3.5 NA
1/16/1984 3.6 3.2 4.9
2/14/1984 4.1 3.3 5
3/16/1984 4.3 3.4 5
4/15/1984 4.3 3.9 NA
5/16/1984 4.1 4.2 NA
6/15/1984 3.9 4.2 NA
7/16/1984 3.7 3.4 5.1
8/16/1984 3.6 3 4.9
9/15/1984 3.3 3 4.9
10/16/1984 3.4 3.5 NA
11/15/1984 3.4 3.4 NA
12/16/1984 3.6 3.3 NA
1/16/1985 3.7 2.9 4.7
2/13/1985 3.5 3.1 4.8
3/16/1985 3.6 3 4.7
4/15/1985 3.3 3.3 NA
5/16/1985 3.4 3.2 NA
6/15/1985 3.5 3.4 NA
7/16/1985 3.4 2.8 4.6
8/16/1985 3.4 2.8 4.7
9/15/1985 3.5 2.9 4.7
10/16/1985 3.4 3.3 NA
11/15/1985 3.5 3.1 NA
12/16/1985 3.6 3.5 NA
1/16/1986 3.6 2.9 NA
2/13/1986 3.1 2.8 NA
3/16/1986 2.5 2.3 3.8
4/15/1986 2.1 2.4 NA
5/16/1986 2.0 2.7 NA
6/15/1986 2.1 2.9 3.9
7/16/1986 1.9 2.8 NA
8/16/1986 1.7 3 NA
9/15/1986 1.9 2.9 4
10/16/1986 1.9 3.2 NA
11/15/1986 1.8 2.8 NA
12/16/1986 1.6 3 3.8
1/16/1987 1.6 2.9 NA
2/13/1987 1.9 3.1 NA
3/16/1987 2.4 3 3.9
4/15/1987 3.0 3 NA
5/16/1987 3.1 3.4 NA
6/15/1987 3.1 3.3 4.3
7/16/1987 3.3 3.1 NA
8/16/1987 3.6 3.2 NA
9/15/1987 3.6 3 3.4
10/16/1987 3.8 3.3 NA
11/15/1987 3.8 3.2 NA
12/16/1987 3.8 3.1 4.1
1/16/1988 3.7 3.2 NA
2/14/1988 3.5 3.1 NA
3/16/1988 3.6 3.2 NA
4/15/1988 3.7 3.3 NA
5/16/1988 3.8 3.3 NA
6/15/1988 3.8 3.7 NA
7/16/1988 4.1 4.6 NA
8/16/1988 4.0 4.4 NA
9/15/1988 4.1 3.9 NA
10/16/1988 4.1 3.9 NA
11/15/1988 4.2 3.7 NA
12/16/1988 4.3 3.9 NA
1/16/1989 4.4 3.5 NA
2/13/1989 4.6 4.1 NA
3/16/1989 4.7 3.7 NA
4/15/1989 4.8 4.3 NA
5/16/1989 4.9 4.6 NA
6/15/1989 4.7 3.8 NA
7/16/1989 4.4 4.1 NA
8/16/1989 4.2 3.5 NA
9/15/1989 3.9 3.4 NA
10/16/1989 3.9 3.6 NA
11/15/1989 3.9 3.5 NA
12/16/1989 3.9 3.5 NA
1/16/1990 4.2 4.1 NA
2/13/1990 4.3 4.1 NA
3/16/1990 4.3 3.7 NA
4/15/1990 3.8 3.6 4
5/16/1990 3.7 3.4 4.3
6/15/1990 3.9 3.8 4.6
7/16/1990 3.9 3.4 4.2
8/16/1990 4.6 4.6 4.6
9/15/1990 5.0 4.7 4.7
10/16/1990 5.2 4.8 4.6
11/15/1990 5.1 4.7 4.6
12/16/1990 4.9 4.7 4.5
1/16/1991 4.5 3.9 4.6
2/13/1991 4.1 3.4 4.6
3/16/1991 3.7 3.3 4.6
4/15/1991 3.7 3.2 4.2
5/16/1991 3.9 3.1 4.4
6/15/1991 3.6 3.3 4.5
7/16/1991 3.5 3.1 4.2
8/16/1991 3.1 3.2 4
9/15/1991 2.8 3 3.9
10/16/1991 2.4 3.2 3.7
11/15/1991 2.5 2.9 3.8
12/16/1991 2.6 2.7 3.8
1/16/1992 2.4 2.7 3.6
2/14/1992 2.6 2.6 3.4
3/16/1992 2.8 2.6 3.6
4/15/1992 2.9 3 3.9
5/16/1992 2.6 2.9 4
6/15/1992 2.6 3.1 3.4
7/16/1992 2.8 2.7 3.7
8/16/1992 2.7 2.8 4.2
9/15/1992 2.5 3 3.5
10/16/1992 2.7 2.8 3.7
11/15/1992 2.7 2.9 3.7
12/16/1992 2.6 2.8 3.4
1/16/1993 2.7 2.9 3.4
2/13/1993 2.6 3.2 4.1
3/16/1993 2.6 3.1 3.6
4/15/1993 2.6 3 3.5
5/16/1993 2.7 2.9 3.5
6/15/1993 2.6 3.5 3.8
7/16/1993 2.4 3 3.5
8/16/1993 2.5 3.2 3.3
9/15/1993 2.4 3 3.3
10/16/1993 2.4 3.3 3.5
11/15/1993 2.3 2.8 3.4
12/16/1993 2.2 3 3.6
1/16/1994 2.0 2.8 3.2
2/13/1994 2.1 2.8 3.3
3/16/1994 2.1 3 3.4
4/15/1994 2.0 3 3.2
5/16/1994 1.8 3.1 3.4
6/15/1994 2.0 2.7 3.4
7/16/1994 2.2 2.9 3.2
8/16/1994 2.2 3.1 3.5
9/15/1994 2.3 3.4 3.2
10/16/1994 2.1 3 3.3
11/15/1994 2.1 3.2 3.2
12/16/1994 2.1 3 3.2
1/16/1995 2.3 3 3.2
2/13/1995 2.3 3 3.2
3/16/1995 2.2 3.2 3.3
4/15/1995 2.3 3.3 3.5
5/16/1995 2.3 3 3.2
6/15/1995 2.2 2.9 3.1
7/16/1995 2.0 2.9 3.2
8/16/1995 2.0 2.9 3.1
9/15/1995 1.9 2.8 3.1
10/16/1995 2.0 2.9 3.2
11/15/1995 1.8 2.8 3.1
12/16/1995 2.0 2.7 3.1
1/16/1996 2.0 2.8 3.2
2/14/1996 2.0 2.8 3.3
3/16/1996 2.1 2.9 3.2
4/15/1996 2.1 3 3
5/16/1996 2.1 3.1 3.3
6/15/1996 2.0 2.9 3.1
7/16/1996 2.1 3 3.2
8/16/1996 2.0 3.1 3.3
9/15/1996 2.2 3.2 3.2
10/16/1996 2.3 3 3
11/15/1996 2.4 3 3
12/16/1996 2.4 3 3
1/16/1997 2.3 3 3.2
2/13/1997 2.3 3 3.1
3/16/1997 2.1 2.8 3
4/15/1997 1.9 3 2.9
5/16/1997 1.7 2.9 3
6/15/1997 1.8 2.8 3.1
7/16/1997 1.7 2.7 2.9
8/16/1997 1.7 2.7 3
9/15/1997 1.6 2.8 3.1
10/16/1997 1.4 2.8 3
11/15/1997 1.3 2.9 3.1
12/16/1997 1.1 2.8 3.1
1/16/1998 1.0 2.3 2.9
2/13/1998 0.8 2.4 2.9
3/16/1998 0.7 2.5 2.8
4/15/1998 0.7 2.4 2.7
5/16/1998 0.9 2.6 2.8
6/15/1998 0.7 2.7 2.9
7/16/1998 0.9 2.6 2.7
8/16/1998 0.9 2.4 2.7
9/15/1998 0.6 2.3 2.9
10/16/1998 0.7 2.5 2.8
11/15/1998 0.7 2.3 2.8
12/16/1998 0.8 2.5 2.9
1/16/1999 0.9 2.7 3
2/13/1999 0.9 2.5 2.8
3/16/1999 1.0 2.7 2.7
4/15/1999 1.4 2.7 2.8
5/16/1999 1.3 2.8 2.9
6/15/1999 1.4 2.5 2.8
7/16/1999 1.4 2.7 2.9
8/16/1999 1.5 2.8 2.8
9/15/1999 1.9 2.7 2.9
10/16/1999 1.8 2.9 2.8
11/15/1999 1.9 2.9 2.9
12/16/1999 2.1 3 2.9
1/16/2000 2.2 3 3
2/14/2000 2.6 2.9 2.9
3/16/2000 2.9 3.2 3.1
4/15/2000 2.4 3.2 2.8
5/16/2000 2.4 3 2.9
6/15/2000 2.7 2.9 2.8
7/16/2000 2.7 3 2.8
8/16/2000 2.5 2.7 2.9
9/15/2000 2.5 2.9 3
10/16/2000 2.5 3.2 3
11/15/2000 2.6 2.9 2.9
12/16/2000 2.5 2.8 3
1/16/2001 2.7 3 2.9
2/13/2001 2.5 2.8 3
3/16/2001 2.1 2.8 3
4/15/2001 2.4 3.1 3.1
5/16/2001 2.6 3.2 3
6/15/2001 2.4 3 3
7/16/2001 2.1 2.6 2.9
8/16/2001 2.1 2.7 3
9/15/2001 1.3 2.8 2.9
10/16/2001 1.5 1 2.7
11/15/2001 1.3 0.4 2.8
12/16/2001 1.1 1.8 3
1/16/2002 0.7 1.9 2.7
2/13/2002 0.7 2.1 2.8
3/16/2002 0.9 2.7 2.8
4/15/2002 1.2 2.8 2.8
5/16/2002 1.0 2.7 3
6/15/2002 0.9 2.7 2.8
7/16/2002 1.2 2.6 2.8
8/16/2002 1.4 2.6 2.9
9/15/2002 1.9 2.5 2.5
10/16/2002 1.8 2.5 2.8
11/15/2002 1.9 2.4 2.8
12/16/2002 2.1 2.5 2.8
1/16/2003 2.3 2.5 2.7
2/13/2003 2.6 2.7 2.7
3/16/2003 2.6 3.1 2.8
4/15/2003 2.0 2.4 2.7
5/16/2003 1.8 2 2.8
6/15/2003 1.8 2.1 2.7
7/16/2003 1.9 1.7 2.7
8/16/2003 2.0 2.5 2.7
9/15/2003 2.1 2.8 2.7
10/16/2003 2.0 2.6 2.8
11/15/2003 2.0 2.7 2.7
12/16/2003 2.1 2.6 2.8
1/16/2004 2.2 2.7 2.8
2/14/2004 2.0 2.6 2.9
3/16/2004 1.9 2.9 2.9
4/15/2004 2.3 3.2 2.7
5/16/2004 2.7 3.3 2.8
6/15/2004 2.9 3.3 2.9
7/16/2004 2.7 3 2.8
8/16/2004 2.4 2.8 2.7
9/15/2004 2.3 2.8 2.8
10/16/2004 2.7 3.1 2.8
11/15/2004 3.0 2.8 2.7
12/16/2004 2.8 3 2.8
1/16/2005 2.5 2.9 2.7
2/13/2005 2.6 2.9 2.8
3/16/2005 2.7 3.2 2.9
4/15/2005 2.8 3.3 3
5/16/2005 2.6 3.2 2.9
6/15/2005 2.3 3.2 2.8
7/16/2005 2.7 3 2.9
8/16/2005 3.0 3.1 2.8
9/15/2005 3.8 4.3 3.1
10/16/2005 3.6 4.6 3.2
11/15/2005 2.9 3.3 3
12/16/2005 2.9 3.1 3.1
1/16/2006 3.2 3 2.9
2/13/2006 3.0 3 2.9
3/16/2006 2.9 3 2.9
4/15/2006 3.1 3.3 3.1
5/16/2006 3.3 4 3.2
6/15/2006 3.5 3.3 2.9
7/16/2006 3.4 3.2 2.9
8/16/2006 3.3 3.8 3.2
9/15/2006 2.1 3.1 3
10/16/2006 1.7 3.1 3.1
11/15/2006 1.9 3 3
12/16/2006 2.3 2.9 3
1/16/2007 2.1 3 3
2/13/2007 2.4 3 2.9
3/16/2007 2.6 3 2.9
4/15/2007 2.3 3.3 3.1
5/16/2007 2.4 3.3 3.1
6/15/2007 2.3 3.4 2.9
7/16/2007 2.1 3.4 3.1
8/16/2007 1.9 3.2 2.9
9/15/2007 2.5 3.1 2.9
10/16/2007 3.1 3.1 2.8
11/15/2007 3.6 3.4 2.9
12/16/2007 3.5 3.4 3.1
1/16/2008 3.4 3.4 3
2/14/2008 3.3 3.6 3
3/16/2008 3.2 4.3 2.9
4/15/2008 3.1 4.8 3.2
5/16/2008 3.3 5.2 3.4
6/15/2008 3.8 5.1 3.4
7/16/2008 4.1 5.1 3.2
8/16/2008 4.0 4.8 3.2
9/15/2008 3.7 4.3 3
10/16/2008 2.7 3.9 2.9
11/15/2008 0.9 2.9 2.9
12/16/2008 0.1 1.7 2.6
1/16/2009 -0.1 2.2 2.9
2/13/2009 -0.1 1.9 3.1
3/16/2009 -0.5 2 2.6
4/15/2009 -0.6 2.8 2.8
5/16/2009 -0.9 2.8 2.9
6/15/2009 -1.0 3.1 3
7/16/2009 -1.5 2.9 3
8/16/2009 -1.1 2.8 2.8
9/15/2009 -1.0 2.2 2.8
10/16/2009 0.0 2.9 2.9
11/15/2009 1.5 2.7 3
12/16/2009 2.1 2.5 2.7
1/16/2010 2.3 2.8 2.9
2/13/2010 2.1 2.7 2.7
3/16/2010 2.4 2.7 2.7
4/15/2010 2.3 2.9 2.7
5/16/2010 2.2 3.2 2.9
6/15/2010 1.6 2.8 2.8
7/16/2010 1.6 2.7 2.9
8/16/2010 1.5 2.7 2.8
9/15/2010 1.4 2.2 2.7
10/16/2010 1.4 2.7 2.8
11/15/2010 1.3 3 2.8
12/16/2010 1.5 3 2.8
1/16/2011 1.6 3.4 2.9
2/13/2011 1.8 3.4 2.9
3/16/2011 2.1 4.6 3.2
4/15/2011 2.5 4.6 2.9
5/16/2011 2.8 4.1 2.9
6/15/2011 2.8 3.8 3
7/16/2011 2.9 3.4 2.9
8/16/2011 3.0 3.5 2.9
9/15/2011 3.0 3.3 2.8
10/16/2011 2.7 3.2 2.7
11/15/2011 2.7 3.2 2.7
12/16/2011 2.5 3.1 2.7
1/16/2012 2.6 3.3 2.7
2/14/2012 2.5 3.3 2.9
3/16/2012 2.3 3.9 3
4/15/2012 2.0 3.2 2.9
5/16/2012 1.6 3 2.7
6/15/2012 1.5 3.1 2.8
7/16/2012 1.4 3 2.7
8/16/2012 1.5 3.6 3
9/15/2012 1.7 3.3 2.8
10/16/2012 2.0 3.1 2.7
11/15/2012 1.7 3.1 2.8
12/16/2012 1.6 3.2 2.9
1/16/2013 1.5 3.3 2.9
2/13/2013 1.6 3.3 3
3/16/2013 1.3 3.2 2.8
4/15/2013 1.0 3.1 2.9
5/16/2013 1.2 3.1 2.9
6/15/2013 1.5 3 2.9
7/16/2013 1.6 3.1 2.8
8/16/2013 1.4 3 2.9
9/15/2013 1.1 3.3 3
10/16/2013 1.0 3 2.8
11/15/2013 1.2 2.9 2.9
12/16/2013 1.4 3 2.7
1/16/2014 1.4 3.1 2.9
2/13/2014 1.1 3.2 2.9
3/16/2014 1.4 3.2 2.9
4/15/2014 1.7 3.2 2.9
5/16/2014 1.8 3.3 2.8
6/15/2014 1.7 3.1 2.9
7/16/2014 1.7 3.3 2.7
8/16/2014 1.5 3.2 2.9
9/15/2014 1.5 3 2.8
10/16/2014 1.3 2.9 2.8
11/15/2014 1.1 2.8 2.6
12/16/2014 0.7 2.8 2.8
1/16/2015 0.0 2.5 2.8
2/13/2015 0.2 2.8 2.7
3/16/2015 0.2 3 2.8
4/15/2015 0.1 2.6 2.6
5/16/2015 0.2 2.8 2.8
6/15/2015 0.3 2.7 2.6
7/16/2015 0.2 2.8 2.8
8/16/2015 0.2 2.8 2.7
9/15/2015 0.1 2.8 2.7
10/16/2015 0.1 2.7 2.5
11/15/2015 0.3 2.7 2.6
12/16/2015 0.3 2.6 2.6
1/16/2016 0.9 2.5 2.7
2/14/2016 0.6 2.5 2.5
3/16/2016 0.7 2.7 2.7
4/15/2016 0.9 2.8 2.5
5/16/2016 0.8 2.4 2.5
6/15/2016 0.8 2.6 2.6
7/16/2016 0.8 2.7 2.6
8/16/2016 0.9 2.5 2.5
9/15/2016 1.2 2.4 2.6
10/16/2016 1.4 2.4 2.4
11/15/2016 1.4 2.4 2.6
12/16/2016 1.7 2.2 2.3
1/16/2017 2.0 2.6 2.6
2/13/2017 2.2 2.7 2.5
3/16/2017 1.9 2.5 2.4
4/15/2017 1.8 2.5 2.4
5/16/2017 1.6 2.6 2.4
6/15/2017 1.5 2.6 2.5
7/16/2017 1.5 2.6 2.6
8/16/2017 1.6 2.6 2.5
9/15/2017 1.8 2.7 2.5
10/16/2017 1.7 2.4 2.5
11/15/2017 1.8 2.5 2.4
12/16/2017 1.8 2.7 2.4
1/16/2018 1.8 2.7 2.5
2/13/2018 1.8 2.7 2.5
3/16/2018 2.0 2.8 2.5
4/15/2018 2.0 2.7 2.5
5/16/2018 2.3 2.8 2.5
6/15/2018 2.3 3 2.6
7/16/2018 2.3 2.9 2.4
8/16/2018 2.2 3 2.6
9/15/2018 2.0 2.7 2.5
10/16/2018 2.1 2.9 2.4
11/15/2018 1.9 2.8 2.6
12/16/2018 1.9 2.7 2.5
1/16/2019 1.4 2.7 2.6
2/13/2019 1.4 2.6 2.3
3/16/2019 1.5 2.5 2.5
4/15/2019 1.6 2.5 2.3
5/16/2019 1.5 2.9 2.6
6/15/2019 1.4 2.7 2.3
7/16/2019 1.5 2.6 2.5
8/16/2019 1.4 2.7 2.6
9/15/2019 1.3 2.8 2.4
10/16/2019 1.3 2.5 2.3
11/15/2019 1.4 2.5 2.5
12/16/2019 1.6 2.3 2.2
1/16/2020 1.7 2.5 2.5
2/14/2020 1.7 2.4 2.3
3/16/2020 1.1 2.2 2.3
4/15/2020 0.4 2.1 2.5
5/16/2020 0.5 3.2 2.7
6/15/2020 0.7 3 2.5
7/16/2020 0.9 3 2.6
8/16/2020 1.2 3.1 2.7
9/15/2020 1.3 2.6 2.7
10/16/2020 1.1 2.6 2.4
11/15/2020 1.2 2.8 2.5
12/16/2020 1.3 2.5 2.5
1/16/2021 1.6 3 2.7
2/13/2021 1.8 3.3 2.7
3/16/2021 2.7 3.1 2.8
4/15/2021 3.7 3.4 2.7
5/16/2021 4.1 4.6 3
6/15/2021 4.3 4.2 2.8
7/16/2021 4.5 4.7 2.8
8/16/2021 4.6 4.6 2.9
9/15/2021 4.8 4.6 3
10/16/2021 5.4 4.8 2.9
11/15/2021 6.0 4.9 3
12/16/2021 6.2 4.8 2.9
1/16/2022 6.3 4.9 3.1
2/13/2022 6.6 4.9 3
3/16/2022 7.0 5.4 3
4/15/2022 6.7 5.4 3
5/16/2022 6.8 5.3 3
6/15/2022 7.2 5.3 3.1
7/16/2022 6.8 5.2 2.9
8/16/2022 6.6 4.8 2.9
9/15/2022 6.7 4.7 2.7
10/16/2022 6.5 5 2.9
11/15/2022 6.0 5 3
12/16/2022 5.5 4.3 3
1/16/2023 5.5 3.9 2.9
2/13/2023 5.2 4.2 2.9
3/16/2023 4.4 3.6 2.9
4/15/2023 4.5 4.7 3
5/16/2023 4.0 4.2 3.1
6/15/2023 3.3 3.3 3
7/16/2023 3.4 3.4 3
8/16/2023 3.4 3.5 3
9/15/2023 3.4 3.2 2.8
10/16/2023 3.0 4.2 3
11/15/2023 2.7 4.5 3.2
12/16/2023 2.7 3.1 2.9
1/16/2024 2.6 2.9 2.9
2/14/2024 2.6 3 2.9
3/16/2024 2.8 2.9 2.8
4/15/2024 2.7 3.2 3
5/16/2024 2.6 3.3 3
6/15/2024 2.4 3 3
7/16/2024 2.5 2.9 3
8/16/2024 2.3 2.8 3
9/15/2024 2.1 2.7 3.1
10/16/2024 2.3 2.7 3
11/15/2024 2.5 2.6 3.2
12/16/2024 2.6 2.8 3
1/16/2025 2.5 3.3 3.2
2/13/2025 NA 4.3 3.5
3/16/2025 NA 4.9 3.9

Note: PCE is personal consumption expenditures chain price index. The data for Michigan inflation expectations (next 5 to 10 years) start in February 1979; the gaps from 1979 to 1990 are due to varying survey frequency.

Source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center; Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

Figure 2: Wage Growth and Consumers' Inflation Expectations

Percent
Monthly

Make Full Screen
Date Employment Cost Index, 12-month change U. of Michigan Inflation Expectations, 1-year ahead
1/16/1978 NA 5.2
2/13/1978 NA 6.4
3/16/1978 NA 6.3
4/15/1978 NA 6.7
5/16/1978 NA 6.9
6/15/1978 NA 6.5
7/16/1978 NA 6.6
8/16/1978 NA 8.7
9/15/1978 NA 6.9
10/16/1978 NA 7.4
11/15/1978 NA 7.5
12/16/1978 NA 7.3
1/16/1979 NA 7.8
2/13/1979 NA 9.3
3/16/1979 NA 8.8
4/15/1979 NA 9.7
5/16/1979 NA 9.8
6/15/1979 NA 9.9
7/16/1979 NA 9.9
8/16/1979 NA 9.9
9/15/1979 NA 9.6
10/16/1979 NA 9
11/15/1979 NA 10
12/16/1979 NA 9.9
1/16/1980 NA 10.4
2/14/1980 NA 10
3/16/1980 NA 10.2
4/15/1980 NA 10.1
5/16/1980 NA 8.6
6/15/1980 NA 8.5
7/16/1980 10.7 9.6
8/16/1980 10.4 7.6
9/15/1980 9.9 9.1
10/16/1980 9.7 9.6
11/15/1980 7.8 8.6
12/16/1980 6.8 9.7
1/16/1981 7.2 9.5
2/13/1981 6.6 8.6
3/16/1981 6.2 7.2
4/15/1981 6.4 8
5/16/1981 5.5 7.3
6/15/1981 5.5 7.1
7/16/1981 5.6 6.8
8/16/1981 5.5 5.8
9/15/1981 4.8 6.9
10/16/1981 4.7 6.7
11/15/1981 4.4 7.3
12/16/1981 4.2 5.3
1/16/1982 4.8 5.1
2/13/1982 4.1 5.2
3/16/1982 3.8 4.2
4/15/1982 3.6 4.7
5/16/1982 3.1 3.5
6/15/1982 3.1 4.6
7/16/1982 3.1 5
8/16/1982 3.0 4.8
9/15/1982 3.2 4.5
10/16/1982 3.4 4.7
11/15/1982 4.0 4.5
12/16/1982 4.3 3.7
1/16/1983 4.3 2.8
2/13/1983 4.8 3
3/16/1983 4.6 1.8
4/15/1983 4.5 3.4
5/16/1983 4.9 3.2
6/15/1983 4.8 3.2
7/16/1983 4.9 3.2
8/16/1983 5.2 3.3
9/15/1983 5.0 3.3
10/16/1983 4.6 3.7
11/15/1983 4.5 3.5
12/16/1983 4.3 3.5
1/16/1984 4.4 3.2
2/14/1984 4.4 3.3
3/16/1984 4.2 3.4
4/15/1984 3.6 3.9
5/16/1984 3.4 4.2
6/15/1984 3.4 4.2
7/16/1984 3.5 3.4
8/16/1984 3.8 3
9/15/1984 3.6 3
10/16/1984 3.7 3.5
11/15/1984 3.4 3.4
12/16/1984 3.4 3.3
1/16/1985 3.5 2.9
2/13/1985 3.2 3.1
3/16/1985 3.0 3
4/15/1985 2.8 3.3
5/16/1985 2.6 3.2
6/15/1985 2.5 3.4
7/16/1985 2.8 2.8
8/16/1985 2.9 2.8
9/15/1985 2.9 2.9
10/16/1985 3.1 3.3
11/15/1985 2.8 3.1
12/16/1985 2.8 3.5
1/16/1986 2.9 2.9
2/13/1986 3.3 2.8
3/16/1986 3.4 2.3
4/15/1986 3.5 2.4
5/16/1986 3.8 2.7
6/15/1986 3.5 2.9
7/16/1986 3.1 2.8
8/16/1986 3.2 3
9/15/1986 3.1 2.9
10/16/1986 3.5 3.2
11/15/1986 4.6 2.8
12/16/1986 4.7 3
1/16/1987 4.7 2.9
2/13/1987 4.5 3.1
3/16/1987 4.6 3
4/15/1987 4.4 3
5/16/1987 4.5 3.4
6/15/1987 4.4 3.3
7/16/1987 3.8 3.1
8/16/1987 3.8 3.2
9/15/1987 3.3 3
10/16/1987 3.1 3.3
11/15/1987 3.6 3.2
12/16/1987 3.5 3.1
1/16/1988 4.0 3.2
2/14/1988 4.0 3.1
3/16/1988 3.8 3.2
4/15/1988 3.9 3.3
5/16/1988 3.8 3.3
6/15/1988 3.7 3.7
7/16/1988 3.5 4.6
8/16/1988 3.1 4.4
9/15/1988 2.9 3.9
10/16/1988 3.0 3.9
11/15/1988 2.6 3.7
12/16/1988 2.8 3.9
1/16/1989 3.0 3.5
2/13/1989 3.1 4.1
3/16/1989 3.1 3.7
4/15/1989 3.1 4.3
5/16/1989 3.0 4.6
6/15/1989 3.1 3.8
7/16/1989 3.2 4.1
8/16/1989 3.1 3.5
9/15/1989 2.8 3.4
10/16/1989 2.4 3.6
11/15/1989 2.0 3.5
12/16/1989 1.4 3.5
1/16/1990 1.2 4.1
2/13/1990 1.2 4.1
3/16/1990 1.6 3.7
4/15/1990 1.9 3.6
5/16/1990 2.0 3.4
6/15/1990 2.0 3.8
7/16/1990 2.0 3.4
8/16/1990 2.3 4.6
9/15/1990 2.2 4.7
10/16/1990 2.2 4.8
11/15/1990 2.1 4.7
12/16/1990 1.8 4.7
1/16/1991 1.9 3.9
2/13/1991 1.8 3.4
3/16/1991 1.9 3.3
4/15/1991 1.9 3.2
5/16/1991 1.9 3.1
6/15/1991 2.0 3.3
7/16/1991 1.7 3.1
8/16/1991 2.0 3.2
9/15/1991 2.3 3
10/16/1991 2.3 3.2
11/15/1991 2.8 2.9
12/16/1991 1.9 2.7
1/16/1992 1.9 2.7
2/14/1992 1.8 2.6
3/16/1992 1.7 2.6
4/15/1992 2.4 3
5/16/1992 2.2 2.9
6/15/1992 2.2 3.1
7/16/1992 2.3 2.7
8/16/1992 2.3 2.8
9/15/1992 2.6 3
10/16/1992 2.6 2.8
11/15/1992 2.8 2.9
12/16/1992 2.9 2.8
1/16/1993 2.8 2.9
2/13/1993 3.0 3.2
3/16/1993 2.8 3.1
4/15/1993 2.7 3
5/16/1993 2.7 2.9
6/15/1993 2.7 3.5
7/16/1993 2.8 3
8/16/1993 2.6 3.2
9/15/1993 2.4 3
10/16/1993 2.6 3.3
11/15/1993 2.8 2.8
12/16/1993 3.1 3
1/16/1994 4.1 2.8
2/13/1994 4.4 2.8
3/16/1994 4.7 3
4/15/1994 5.5 3
5/16/1994 5.1 3.1
6/15/1994 5.1 2.7
7/16/1994 4.9 2.9
8/16/1994 4.4 3.1
9/15/1994 4.3 3.4
10/16/1994 4.1 3
11/15/1994 4.1 3.2
12/16/1994 3.9 3
1/16/1995 3.7 3
2/13/1995 3.6 3
3/16/1995   3.2
4/15/1995   3.3
5/16/1995   3
6/15/1995   2.9
7/16/1995   2.9
8/16/1995   2.9
9/15/1995   2.8
10/16/1995   2.9
11/15/1995   2.8
12/16/1995   2.7
1/16/1996   2.8
2/14/1996   2.8
3/16/1996   2.9
4/15/1996   3
5/16/1996   3.1
6/15/1996   2.9
7/16/1996   3
8/16/1996   3.1
9/15/1996   3.2
10/16/1996   3
11/15/1996   3
12/16/1996   3
1/16/1997   3
2/13/1997   3
3/16/1997   2.8
4/15/1997   3
5/16/1997   2.9
6/15/1997   2.8
7/16/1997   2.7
8/16/1997   2.7
9/15/1997   2.8
10/16/1997   2.8
11/15/1997   2.9
12/16/1997   2.8
1/16/1998   2.3
2/13/1998   2.4
3/16/1998   2.5
4/15/1998   2.4
5/16/1998   2.6
6/15/1998   2.7
7/16/1998   2.6
8/16/1998   2.4
9/15/1998   2.3
10/16/1998   2.5
11/15/1998   2.3
12/16/1998   2.5
1/16/1999   2.7
2/13/1999   2.5
3/16/1999   2.7
4/15/1999   2.7
5/16/1999   2.8
6/15/1999   2.5
7/16/1999   2.7
8/16/1999   2.8
9/15/1999   2.7
10/16/1999   2.9
11/15/1999   2.9
12/16/1999   3
1/16/2000   3
2/14/2000   2.9
3/16/2000   3.2
4/15/2000   3.2
5/16/2000   3
6/15/2000   2.9
7/16/2000   3
8/16/2000   2.7
9/15/2000   2.9
10/16/2000   3.2
11/15/2000   2.9
12/16/2000   2.8
1/16/2001   3
2/13/2001   2.8
3/16/2001   2.8
4/15/2001   3.1
5/16/2001   3.2
6/15/2001   3
7/16/2001   2.6
8/16/2001   2.7
9/15/2001   2.8
10/16/2001   1
11/15/2001   0.4
12/16/2001   1.8
1/16/2002   1.9
2/13/2002   2.1
3/16/2002   2.7
4/15/2002   2.8
5/16/2002   2.7
6/15/2002   2.7
7/16/2002   2.6
8/16/2002   2.6
9/15/2002   2.5
10/16/2002   2.5
11/15/2002   2.4
12/16/2002   2.5
1/16/2003   2.5
2/13/2003   2.7
3/16/2003   3.1
4/15/2003   2.4
5/16/2003   2
6/15/2003   2.1
7/16/2003   1.7
8/16/2003   2.5
9/15/2003   2.8
10/16/2003   2.6
11/15/2003   2.7
12/16/2003   2.6
1/16/2004   2.7
2/14/2004   2.6
3/16/2004   2.9
4/15/2004   3.2
5/16/2004   3.3
6/15/2004   3.3
7/16/2004   3
8/16/2004   2.8
9/15/2004   2.8
10/16/2004   3.1
11/15/2004   2.8
12/16/2004   3
1/16/2005   2.9
2/13/2005   2.9
3/16/2005   3.2
4/15/2005   3.3
5/16/2005   3.2
6/15/2005   3.2
7/16/2005   3
8/16/2005   3.1
9/15/2005   4.3
10/16/2005   4.6
11/15/2005   3.3
12/16/2005   3.1
1/16/2006   3
2/13/2006   3
3/16/2006   3
4/15/2006   3.3
5/16/2006   4
6/15/2006   3.3
7/16/2006   3.2
8/16/2006   3.8
9/15/2006   3.1
10/16/2006   3.1
11/15/2006   3
12/16/2006   2.9
1/16/2007   3
2/13/2007   3
3/16/2007   3
4/15/2007   3.3
5/16/2007   3.3
6/15/2007   3.4
7/16/2007   3.4
8/16/2007   3.2
9/15/2007   3.1
10/16/2007   3.1
11/15/2007   3.4
12/16/2007   3.4
1/16/2008   3.4
2/14/2008   3.6
3/16/2008   4.3
4/15/2008   4.8
5/16/2008   5.2
6/15/2008   5.1
7/16/2008   5.1
8/16/2008   4.8
9/15/2008   4.3
10/16/2008   3.9
11/15/2008   2.9
12/16/2008   1.7
1/16/2009   2.2
2/13/2009   1.9
3/16/2009   2
4/15/2009   2.8
5/16/2009   2.8
6/15/2009   3.1
7/16/2009   2.9
8/16/2009   2.8
9/15/2009   2.2
10/16/2009   2.9
11/15/2009   2.7
12/16/2009   2.5
1/16/2010   2.8
2/13/2010   2.7
3/16/2010   2.7
4/15/2010   2.9
5/16/2010   3.2
6/15/2010   2.8
7/16/2010   2.7
8/16/2010   2.7
9/15/2010   2.2
10/16/2010   2.7
11/15/2010   3
12/16/2010   3
1/16/2011   3.4
2/13/2011   3.4
3/16/2011   4.6
4/15/2011   4.6
5/16/2011   4.1
6/15/2011   3.8
7/16/2011   3.4
8/16/2011   3.5
9/15/2011   3.3
10/16/2011   3.2
11/15/2011   3.2
12/16/2011   3.1
1/16/2012   3.3
2/14/2012   3.3
3/16/2012   3.9
4/15/2012   3.2
5/16/2012   3
6/15/2012   3.1
7/16/2012   3
8/16/2012   3.6
9/15/2012   3.3
10/16/2012   3.1
11/15/2012   3.1
12/16/2012   3.2
1/16/2013   3.3
2/13/2013   3.3
3/16/2013   3.2
4/15/2013   3.1
5/16/2013   3.1
6/15/2013   3
7/16/2013   3.1
8/16/2013   3
9/15/2013   3.3
10/16/2013   3
11/15/2013   2.9
12/16/2013   3
1/16/2014   3.1
2/13/2014   3.2
3/16/2014   3.2
4/15/2014   3.2
5/16/2014   3.3
6/15/2014   3.1
7/16/2014   3.3
8/16/2014   3.2
9/15/2014   3
10/16/2014   2.9
11/15/2014   2.8
12/16/2014   2.8
1/16/2015   2.5
2/13/2015   2.8
3/16/2015   3
4/15/2015   2.6
5/16/2015   2.8
6/15/2015   2.7
7/16/2015   2.8
8/16/2015   2.8
9/15/2015   2.8
10/16/2015   2.7
11/15/2015   2.7
12/16/2015   2.6
1/16/2016   2.5
2/14/2016   2.5
3/16/2016   2.7
4/15/2016   2.8
5/16/2016   2.4
6/15/2016   2.6
7/16/2016   2.7
8/16/2016   2.5
9/15/2016   2.4
10/16/2016   2.4
11/15/2016   2.4
12/16/2016   2.2
1/16/2017   2.6
2/13/2017   2.7
3/16/2017   2.5
4/15/2017   2.5
5/16/2017   2.6
6/15/2017   2.6
7/16/2017   2.6
8/16/2017   2.6
9/15/2017   2.7
10/16/2017   2.4
11/15/2017   2.5
12/16/2017   2.7
1/16/2018   2.7
2/13/2018   2.7
3/16/2018   2.8
4/15/2018   2.7
5/16/2018   2.8
6/15/2018   3
7/16/2018   2.9
8/16/2018   3
9/15/2018   2.7
10/16/2018   2.9
11/15/2018   2.8
12/16/2018   2.7
1/16/2019   2.7
2/13/2019   2.6
3/16/2019   2.5
4/15/2019   2.5
5/16/2019   2.9
6/15/2019   2.7
7/16/2019   2.6
8/16/2019   2.7
9/15/2019   2.8
10/16/2019   2.5
11/15/2019   2.5
12/16/2019   2.3
1/16/2020   2.5
2/14/2020   2.4
3/16/2020   2.2
4/15/2020   2.1
5/16/2020   3.2
6/15/2020   3
7/16/2020   3
8/16/2020   3.1
9/15/2020   2.6
10/16/2020   2.6
11/15/2020   2.8
12/16/2020   2.5
1/16/2021   3
2/13/2021   3.3
3/16/2021   3.1
4/15/2021   3.4
5/16/2021   4.6
6/15/2021   4.2
7/16/2021   4.7
8/16/2021   4.6
9/15/2021   4.6
10/16/2021   4.8
11/15/2021   4.9
12/16/2021   4.8
1/16/2022   4.9
2/13/2022   4.9
3/16/2022   5.4
4/15/2022   5.4
5/16/2022   5.3
6/15/2022   5.3
7/16/2022   5.2
8/16/2022   4.8
9/15/2022   4.7
10/16/2022   5
11/15/2022   5
12/16/2022   4.3
1/16/2023   3.9
2/13/2023   4.2
3/16/2023   3.6
4/15/2023   4.7
5/16/2023   4.2
6/15/2023   3.3
7/16/2023   3.4
8/16/2023   3.5
9/15/2023   3.2
10/16/2023   4.2
11/15/2023   4.5
12/16/2023   3.1
1/16/2024   2.9
2/14/2024   3
3/16/2024   2.9
4/15/2024   3.2
5/16/2024   3.3
6/15/2024   3
7/16/2024   2.9
8/16/2024   2.8
9/15/2024   2.7
10/16/2024   2.7
11/15/2024   2.6
12/16/2024   2.8
1/16/2025   3.3
2/13/2025   4.3
3/16/2025   4.9

Note: Employment cost index (ECI) is for private industry workers; the ECI data start in 1981:Q1.

Source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

Figure 3: Inflation and Firms' Inflation Expectations

Percent
Monthly

Make Full Screen
Date Firms' Inflation Expectations, 1-year ahead PCE Headline Inflation, 12-month percent change
1/16/2011 NA 1.6
2/13/2011 NA 1.8
3/16/2011 NA 2.1
4/15/2011 NA 2.5
5/16/2011 NA 2.8
6/15/2011 NA 2.8
7/16/2011 NA 2.9
8/16/2011 NA 3.0
9/15/2011 NA 3.0
10/16/2011 1.8 2.7
11/15/2011 2 2.7
12/16/2011 1.8 2.5
1/16/2012 1.8 2.6
2/14/2012 1.8 2.5
3/16/2012 2 2.3
4/15/2012 2 2.0
5/16/2012 1.8 1.6
6/15/2012 1.6 1.5
7/16/2012 1.6 1.4
8/16/2012 1.8 1.5
9/15/2012 1.7 1.7
10/16/2012 1.8 2.0
11/15/2012 2 1.7
12/16/2012 1.8 1.6
1/16/2013 1.8 1.5
2/13/2013 2 1.6
3/16/2013 1.9 1.3
4/15/2013 2.1 1.0
5/16/2013 1.9 1.2
6/15/2013 1.7 1.5
7/16/2013 1.8 1.6
8/16/2013 2 1.4
9/15/2013 1.9 1.1
10/16/2013 1.9 1.0
11/15/2013 1.9 1.2
12/16/2013 1.9 1.4
1/16/2014 1.9 1.4
2/13/2014 2 1.1
3/16/2014 1.8 1.4
4/15/2014 1.9 1.7
5/16/2014 1.9 1.8
6/15/2014 2 1.7
7/16/2014 1.9 1.7
8/16/2014 2 1.5
9/15/2014 2.1 1.5
10/16/2014 1.9 1.3
11/15/2014 1.9 1.1
12/16/2014 1.9 0.7
1/16/2015 1.7 0.0
2/13/2015 1.6 0.2
3/16/2015 1.7 0.2
4/15/2015 1.7 0.1
5/16/2015 1.9 0.2
6/15/2015 1.9 0.3
7/16/2015 1.9 0.2
8/16/2015 1.8 0.2
9/15/2015 1.7 0.1
10/16/2015 1.7 0.1
11/15/2015 1.8 0.3
12/16/2015 1.9 0.3
1/16/2016 1.8 0.9
2/14/2016 1.8 0.6
3/16/2016 1.7 0.7
4/15/2016 1.7 0.9
5/16/2016 1.8 0.8
6/15/2016 1.8 0.8
7/16/2016 1.7 0.8
8/16/2016 1.7 0.9
9/15/2016 1.9 1.2
10/16/2016 1.7 1.4
11/15/2016 2 1.4
12/16/2016 2.1 1.7
1/16/2017 2 2.0
2/13/2017 2 2.2
3/16/2017 2.1 1.9
4/15/2017 1.9 1.8
5/16/2017 2 1.6
6/15/2017 1.9 1.5
7/16/2017 1.7 1.5
8/16/2017 1.9 1.6
9/15/2017 1.9 1.8
10/16/2017 1.9 1.7
11/15/2017 2.1 1.8
12/16/2017 2.1 1.8
1/16/2018 2 1.8
2/13/2018 2.1 1.8
3/16/2018 2.1 2.0
4/15/2018 2.3 2.0
5/16/2018 1.9 2.3
6/15/2018 2.1 2.3
7/16/2018 2 2.3
8/16/2018 2.1 2.2
9/15/2018 2.2 2.0
10/16/2018 2.3 2.1
11/15/2018 2.2 1.9
12/16/2018 2.4 1.9
1/16/2019 2 1.4
2/13/2019 1.9 1.4
3/16/2019 1.9 1.5
4/15/2019 1.9 1.6
5/16/2019 2 1.5
6/15/2019 2 1.4
7/16/2019 1.9 1.5
8/16/2019 1.9 1.4
9/15/2019 2 1.3
10/16/2019 1.8 1.3
11/15/2019 1.9 1.4
12/16/2019 1.8 1.6
1/16/2020 1.9 1.7
2/14/2020 1.7 1.7
3/16/2020 1.9 1.1
4/15/2020 1.3 0.4
5/16/2020 1.4 0.5
6/15/2020 1.7 0.7
7/16/2020 1.7 0.9
8/16/2020 1.7 1.2
9/15/2020 1.6 1.3
10/16/2020 1.8 1.1
11/15/2020 1.9 1.2
12/16/2020 2 1.3
1/16/2021 2.2 1.6
2/13/2021 2.2 1.8
3/16/2021 2.4 2.7
4/15/2021 2.6 3.7
5/16/2021 2.8 4.1
6/15/2021 2.9 4.3
7/16/2021 2.8 4.5
8/16/2021 3 4.6
9/15/2021 3.1 4.8
10/16/2021 3.1 5.4
11/15/2021 3.3 6.0
12/16/2021 3.4 6.2
1/16/2022 3.4 6.3
2/13/2022 3.5 6.6
3/16/2022 3.8 7.0
4/15/2022 3.8 6.7
5/16/2022 3.7 6.8
6/15/2022 3.6 7.2
7/16/2022 3.7 6.8
8/16/2022 3.5 6.6
9/15/2022 3.4 6.7
10/16/2022 3.4 6.5
11/15/2022 3.4 6.0
12/16/2022 3.2 5.5
1/16/2023 3 5.5
2/13/2023 2.9 5.2
3/16/2023 3.1 4.4
4/15/2023 2.8 4.5
5/16/2023 3 4.0
6/15/2023 2.7 3.3
7/16/2023 2.8 3.4
8/16/2023 2.5 3.4
9/15/2023 2.5 3.4
10/16/2023 2.5 3.0
11/15/2023 2.5 2.7
12/16/2023 2.4 2.7
1/16/2024 2.2 2.6
2/14/2024 2.3 2.6
3/16/2024 2.4 2.8
4/15/2024 2.3 2.7
5/16/2024 2.3 2.6
6/15/2024 2.3 2.4
7/16/2024 2.4 2.5
8/16/2024 2.1 2.3
9/15/2024 2.1 2.1
10/16/2024 2.3 2.3
11/15/2024 2.2 2.5
12/16/2024 2 2.6
1/16/2025 2.2 2.5
2/13/2025 2.3 NA
3/16/2025 2.5 NA

Note: PCE stands for personal consumption expenditures chain price index. Firms' inflation expectations come from the following question of the Atlanta Fed survey: "Projecting ahead, to the best of your ability, please assign a percent likelihood to the following changes to unit costs over the next 12 months: less than -1%; between -1% and 1%; between 1.1% and 3%; between 3.1% and 5%; greater than 5%. "

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Business Inflation Expectations; Haver Analytics; FRB staff calculations.

Figure 4: Measures of Economic Policy Uncertainty

Index
Monthly

Make Full Screen
Date Economic Policy Uncertainty Trade Policy Uncertainty
1/31/1985 125.22474 26.59
2/28/1985 99.02081 30.65
3/31/1985 112.19051 42.44
4/30/1985 102.81132 42.02
5/31/1985 120.08272 31.66
6/30/1985 132.71319 34.8
7/31/1985 128.00182 50.4
8/31/1985 126.76611 41.98
9/30/1985 126.76856 60.03
10/31/1985 116.05771 36.14
11/30/1985 122.03688 39.58
12/31/1985 133.24392 44.47
1/31/1986 155.93292 40.25
2/28/1986 159.46768 41.18
3/31/1986 160.1981 40.27
4/30/1986 150.36626 43.62
5/31/1986 132.63792 41.72
6/30/1986 122.51177 41.21
7/31/1986 132.11963 32.04
8/31/1986 127.5525 37.77
9/30/1986 132.01833 49.16
10/31/1986 111.50927 43.37
11/30/1986 115.02029 44.26
12/31/1986 108.96811 33.57
1/31/1987 122.11428 51.2
2/28/1987 109.14523 48.56
3/31/1987 122.08486 64.37
4/30/1987 110.85971 83.27
5/31/1987 110.04291 43.02
6/30/1987 121.15791 44.4
7/31/1987 106.348 47.5
8/31/1987 74.83796 30.96
9/30/1987 78.98139 36.72
10/31/1987 143.60309 44.79
11/30/1987 155.42208 50.89
12/31/1987 135.47265 43.08
1/31/1988 131.52146 49.58
2/29/1988 116.58432 60.86
3/31/1988 105.05246 52.54
4/30/1988 113.65598 37.53
5/31/1988 96.14572 32.41
6/30/1988 89.78251 42.09
7/31/1988 85.18198 45.29
8/31/1988 100.15845 38.41
9/30/1988 94.55409 42.81
10/31/1988 102.23078 46.74
11/30/1988 113.95989 51.01
12/31/1988 99.66633 49.59
1/31/1989 105.07536 37.14
2/28/1989 84.84484 33.85
3/31/1989 97.21567 32.95
4/30/1989 108.86306 35.61
5/31/1989 87.81604 42.43
6/30/1989 94.83974 39.99
7/31/1989 84.56992 39.51
8/31/1989 95.86038 32.44
9/30/1989 90.9182 31.66
10/31/1989 91.59669 32.9
11/30/1989 107.84913 28.66
12/31/1989 107.09523 36.86
1/31/1990 100.35918 30.92
2/28/1990 89.59095 30.69
3/31/1990 86.06529 36.77
4/30/1990 76.6617 36.44
5/31/1990 118.53795 37.74
6/30/1990 120.52674 40.41
7/31/1990 111.56962 39.87
8/31/1990 142.16524 34.01
9/30/1990 157.69529 33.19
10/31/1990 141.11953 30.1
11/30/1990 145.29094 35.44
12/31/1990 134.48512 41.61
1/31/1991 175.65861 32.9
2/28/1991 115.21345 31.29
3/31/1991 116.02571 33.24
4/30/1991 107.24167 39.74
5/31/1991 94.75868 42.74
6/30/1991 96.9376 39.27
7/31/1991 93.53158 44.01
8/31/1991 100.59554 33.83
9/30/1991 117.04782 33.19
10/31/1991 105.54142 35.72
11/30/1991 122.24914 38.61
12/31/1991 139.99912 41.9
1/31/1992 109.20085 51.13
2/29/1992 125.53676 42.27
3/31/1992 91.70582 33.28
4/30/1992 87.58229 39.77
5/31/1992 96.87495 33.89
6/30/1992 122.34916 39.02
7/31/1992 120.91493 50.34
8/31/1992 115.90751 54.21
9/30/1992 127.01963 45.73
10/31/1992 138.52178 49.29
11/30/1992 118.77686 65.3
12/31/1992 106.86792 46.45
1/31/1993 102.53033 52.84
2/28/1993 119.96253 58.23
3/31/1993 121.55786 41.17
4/30/1993 109.25684 46.75
5/31/1993 133.58967 43.89
6/30/1993 126.04877 44.33
7/31/1993 117.5845 54.7
8/31/1993 106.03237 43.62
9/30/1993 106.27469 51.4
10/31/1993 84.48769 51.79
11/30/1993 84.55661 94.97
12/31/1993 77.52033 72.2
1/31/1994 80.0098 37.69
2/28/1994 94.5927 49.54
3/31/1994 87.00632 52.28
4/30/1994 100.41637 46.23
5/31/1994 96.5273 52.02
6/30/1994 92.37979 36.22
7/31/1994 85.37095 37.84
8/31/1994 92.82606 32.89
9/30/1994 90.63002 38.72
10/31/1994 76.49899 38.39
11/30/1994 91.77528 59.42
12/31/1994 91.795 44.8
1/31/1995 107.95494 40.02
2/28/1995 86.32307 38.49
3/31/1995 78.09662 31.66
4/30/1995 65.99178 35.36
5/31/1995 74.70236 60.58
6/30/1995 79.67356 60.38
7/31/1995 83.03811 38.82
8/31/1995 66.76376 26.04
9/30/1995 75.22518 30.61
10/31/1995 80.62605 28.06
11/30/1995 90.53283 30.51
12/31/1995 84.34724 31.21
1/31/1996 90.66317 39.44
2/29/1996 75.83463 45.67
3/31/1996 72.65243 39.66
4/30/1996 69.19065 33.98
5/31/1996 69.42779 37.47
6/30/1996 81.17971 33.63
7/31/1996 73.61083 30.55
8/31/1996 83.65826 29.09
9/30/1996 77.97562 25.54
10/31/1996 64.19595 26.47
11/30/1996 74.20867 29.23
12/31/1996 69.97417 33.49
1/31/1997 74.96831 26.79
2/28/1997 87.69729 35.16
3/31/1997 75.01231 30.29
4/30/1997 75.45429 32.09
5/31/1997 73.45813 33.64
6/30/1997 78.48298 34.37
7/31/1997 73.89487 30.63
8/31/1997 63.80988 27.38
9/30/1997 61.15956 33.76
10/31/1997 83.65215 36.76
11/30/1997 78.39389 47.08
12/31/1997 88.74448 31.97
1/31/1998 91.04062 30.69
2/28/1998 88.81944 25.53
3/31/1998 78.38832 29.84
4/30/1998 73.20014 30.77
5/31/1998 75.8551 25.66
6/30/1998 76.28635 33.54
7/31/1998 88.17701 36.33
8/31/1998 101.40807 32.31
9/30/1998 123.96147 32.45
10/31/1998 109.88134 33.77
11/30/1998 92.94632 30.2
12/31/1998 91.40618 35.7
1/31/1999 98.64504 34.19
2/28/1999 82.38359 34.41
3/31/1999 66.00054 39.11
4/30/1999 67.53295 34.93
5/31/1999 67.08854 30.32
6/30/1999 73.01111 33.05
7/31/1999 79.81311 31.7
8/31/1999 69.55318 32.25
9/30/1999 69.81624 30.39
10/31/1999 62.71155 32.64
11/30/1999 82.06383 48.94
12/31/1999 83.80947 41.58
1/31/2000 89.20154 32.12
2/29/2000 77.60139 28.18
3/31/2000 77.54831 36.84
4/30/2000 76.05923 35.28
5/31/2000 97.9862 49.33
6/30/2000 92.96502 27.37
7/31/2000 79.44697 31.94
8/31/2000 66.58133 29.21
9/30/2000 75.14165 33.43
10/31/2000 84.66172 25.48
11/30/2000 125.06753 26.9
12/31/2000 115.26872 29.82
1/31/2001 111.41604 25.99
2/28/2001 110.91785 20.65
3/31/2001 116.02693 25.08
4/30/2001 122.6734 34.31
5/31/2001 100.42901 27.79
6/30/2001 86.39027 30.16
7/31/2001 102.13185 34.3
8/31/2001 84.28912 28.29
9/30/2001 188.05949 24.13
10/31/2001 173.14334 24.04
11/30/2001 130.57563 33.66
12/31/2001 117.23658 34.29
1/31/2002 116.83745 31.63
2/28/2002 87.60069 31.95
3/31/2002 83.44043 53.88
4/30/2002 88.5661 36.55
5/31/2002 86.29886 41.12
6/30/2002 93.61022 39.78
7/31/2002 110.30517 40.61
8/31/2002 116.01482 34.51
9/30/2002 124.04315 27.69
10/31/2002 111.88598 32.55
11/30/2002 123.28439 31.85
12/31/2002 122.22166 24.72
1/31/2003 138.9534 25.27
2/28/2003 126.72774 31.57
3/31/2003 163.52381 23.27
4/30/2003 135.62755 16.25
5/31/2003 102.61982 28.6
6/30/2003 95.82729 32.86
7/31/2003 91.74151 28.43
8/31/2003 95.67182 24.55
9/30/2003 106.11577 39.81
10/31/2003 88.04379 31.4
11/30/2003 84.91824 50.18
12/31/2003 91.73699 46.64
1/31/2004 96.56646 30.88
2/29/2004 99.4573 35.4
3/31/2004 96.78947 27.12
4/30/2004 94.11529 28.38
5/31/2004 92.32118 31
6/30/2004 85.34598 22.94
7/31/2004 87.54419 34.25
8/31/2004 85.92587 28.87
9/30/2004 100.01189 28.53
10/31/2004 105.69511 29.36
11/30/2004 95.24086 31.06
12/31/2004 77.59643 30.1
1/31/2005 73.91848 27.61
2/28/2005 58.95005 19.92
3/31/2005 57.55796 23.08
4/30/2005 74.56597 31.5
5/31/2005 70.50812 33.33
6/30/2005 74.56133 38.65
7/31/2005 68.71645 34.03
8/31/2005 64.39586 22.79
9/30/2005 91.40605 22.9
10/31/2005 76.16369 34.36
11/30/2005 72.21598 28.04
12/31/2005 78.04893 32.11
1/31/2006 79.17535 23.66
2/28/2006 72.69299 24.29
3/31/2006 64.22933 24.32
4/30/2006 79.76153 26.57
5/31/2006 70.83626 27.05
6/30/2006 79.49433 26.84
7/31/2006 80.56231 30.91
8/31/2006 72.76996 20.98
9/30/2006 67.06754 26.79
10/31/2006 63.46447 23.69
11/30/2006 62.51985 26
12/31/2006 63.37041 26.98
1/31/2007 79.01967 22.5
2/28/2007 57.20262 27.56
3/31/2007 69.88729 26.71
4/30/2007 62.5017 30.44
5/31/2007 74.68187 29.71
6/30/2007 73.29654 34.27
7/31/2007 59.32398 24.37
8/31/2007 89.10405 23.17
9/30/2007 100.74438 19
10/31/2007 89.45453 25.88
11/30/2007 102.44111 27.37
12/31/2007 108.54379 21.82
1/31/2008 144.98473 27.87
2/29/2008 108.10469 24.89
3/31/2008 111.71236 25.98
4/30/2008 102.1969 31.78
5/31/2008 94.28405 25.64
6/30/2008 94.55676 34.38
7/31/2008 109.78898 32.97
8/31/2008 95.87076 25.97
9/30/2008 187.7403 29.58
10/31/2008 189.91729 31.71
11/30/2008 148.84257 28.88
12/31/2008 145.9947 31.33
1/31/2009 171.94621 23.31
2/28/2009 187.11403 26.2
3/31/2009 166.90338 34.15
4/30/2009 131.85612 22.99
5/31/2009 138.80585 21.32
6/30/2009 130.93348 21.15
7/31/2009 126.28215 24.7
8/31/2009 152.55009 29.13
9/30/2009 145.44437 37.14
10/31/2009 138.13055 28.32
11/30/2009 116.16231 27.94
12/31/2009 121.22101 31.12
1/31/2010 149.35928 24.49
2/28/2010 132.79865 18.85
3/31/2010 137.47003 28.56
4/30/2010 137.0774 25.49
5/31/2010 151.10342 21.41
6/30/2010 140.56916 27.38
7/31/2010 180.01446 28.69
8/31/2010 147.30909 29.79
9/30/2010 182.14672 31.5
10/31/2010 163.42489 31.01
11/30/2010 179.13559 30.49
12/31/2010 165.40785 32.21
1/31/2011 142.17046 30.24
2/28/2011 145.5089 24.95
3/31/2011 174.35437 29.95
4/30/2011 157.49588 31.69
5/31/2011 126.19207 20.82
6/30/2011 158.08862 29.77
7/31/2011 197.91636 30.57
8/31/2011 245.12671 30.83
9/30/2011 204.62979 21.24
10/31/2011 159.73957 36.77
11/30/2011 166.33902 36.38
12/31/2011 189.39836 30.97
1/31/2012 178.28653 29.72
2/29/2012 149.63708 23.26
3/31/2012 137.55311 27.71
4/30/2012 136.59669 21.95
5/31/2012 158.56198 28.6
6/30/2012 194.61057 20.72
7/31/2012 184.8797 29.37
8/31/2012 152.35347 20.97
9/30/2012 175.27705 22.71
10/31/2012 165.94452 27.78
11/30/2012 187.49064 27.59
12/31/2012 192.82518 25.88
1/31/2013 157.5333 22.87
2/28/2013 114.65412 28.6
3/31/2013 124.94082 31.86
4/30/2013 118.71049 11.3
5/31/2013 104.30455 33.65
6/30/2013 114.61614 26.86
7/31/2013 94.03991 24.47
8/31/2013 102.77067 20.35
9/30/2013 144.40178 25.63
10/31/2013 171.02225 33.37
11/30/2013 89.90614 26.03
12/31/2013 104.60212 21.48
1/31/2014 93.50074 23.01
2/28/2014 88.98535 26.8
3/31/2014 93.46759 27.13
4/30/2014 91.11802 24.47
5/31/2014 90.39225 16.78
6/30/2014 81.00762 27.61
7/31/2014 76.64489 20.21
8/31/2014 71.26214 22.25
9/30/2014 84.33692 19.87
10/31/2014 100.20666 21.02
11/30/2014 88.56003 25.03
12/31/2014 85.1875 28.7
1/31/2015 117.16063 26.61
2/28/2015 100.31974 25.19
3/31/2015 105.21813 20.87
4/30/2015 109.64379 21.37
5/31/2015 101.01894 43.44
6/30/2015 108.95279 44.5
7/31/2015 98.91843 26.48
8/31/2015 129.69532 35.42
9/30/2015 138.72169 29.25
10/31/2015 102.89402 53.25
11/30/2015 92.10044 30.72
12/31/2015 99.34261 31.82
1/31/2016 119.01519 36.03
2/29/2016 114.62456 32.21
3/31/2016 104.19081 54.33
4/30/2016 84.25134 46.85
5/31/2016 82.04127 57.42
6/30/2016 162.62912 74.69
7/31/2016 121.96465 46.11
8/31/2016 91.8289 43.67
9/30/2016 79.80896 44.25
10/31/2016 92.51785 50.46
11/30/2016 169.37782 111.3
12/31/2016 115.15205 105.84
1/31/2017 134.86953 166.42
2/28/2017 133.33148 122.7
3/31/2017 119.77617 90.58
4/30/2017 121.57059 97.09
5/31/2017 104.17097 54.46
6/30/2017 98.75896 60.12
7/31/2017 110.7536 65.98
8/31/2017 109.17827 54.83
9/30/2017 96.75077 51.3
10/31/2017 102.16057 47.74
11/30/2017 94.48961 44.03
12/31/2017 111.49723 46.75
1/31/2018 123.65156 73.21
2/28/2018 94.00742 57.03
3/31/2018 136.33432 260.56
4/30/2018 108.21374 174.21
5/31/2018 124.93665 152.25
6/30/2018 108.6274 228.62
7/31/2018 133.08625 246.38
8/31/2018 99.13562 225.83
9/30/2018 102.6602 150.11
10/31/2018 111.51257 155.21
11/30/2018 130.22387 144.83
12/31/2018 166.28681 164.65
1/31/2019 201.03201 141.71
2/28/2019 106.90066 127.47
3/31/2019 140.24737 94.1
4/30/2019 98.7367 91.16
5/31/2019 122.53876 189.79
6/30/2019 150.11678 266
7/31/2019 149.9729 145.11
8/31/2019 190.46323 254.22
9/30/2019 134.36178 136.93
10/31/2019 118.48822 139.27
11/30/2019 131.75071 119.84
12/31/2019 143.46725 146.32
1/31/2020 131.39109 139.64
2/29/2020 160.51565 95.74
3/31/2020 283.14721 61.23
4/30/2020 268.61639 55.48
5/31/2020 350.45982 66.5
6/30/2020 231.2598 59.9
7/31/2020 305.96355 57.4
8/31/2020 224.42637 67.2
9/30/2020 218.05829 67.8
10/31/2020 249.17362 70.25
11/30/2020 246.7071 69.88
12/31/2020 246.1261 98.01
1/31/2021 207.91242 75.44
2/28/2021 151.93288 36.86
3/31/2021 139.8012 46.82
4/30/2021 124.88952 47.95
5/31/2021 147.01584 49.26
6/30/2021 133.57887 49.35
7/31/2021 152.91092 57.22
8/31/2021 133.81455 39.46
9/30/2021 142.06763 51.54
10/31/2021 121.9515 56.06
11/30/2021 151.28684 48.49
12/31/2021 166.24265 37.12
1/31/2022 139.23758 46.61
2/28/2022 138.05353 54.3
3/31/2022 190.01241 53.63
4/30/2022 154.66196 41.19
5/31/2022 168.00083 63.29
6/30/2022 145.97594 74.51
7/31/2022 186.92141 67.04
8/31/2022 163.23982 65.86
9/30/2022 174.18347 48.51
10/31/2022 177.42313 46.55
11/30/2022 171.73726 49.3
12/31/2022 136.43315 48.77
1/31/2023 143.09753 52.74
2/28/2023 124.10951 43.68
3/31/2023 151.91539 65.44
4/30/2023 131.39426 33.89
5/31/2023 160.16576 59.66
6/30/2023 145.02995 52.33
7/31/2023 117.76544 63.3
8/31/2023 88.46603 59.97
9/30/2023 112.37035 63.6
10/31/2023 121.67081 44.46
11/30/2023 129.44809 40.95
12/31/2023 109.74421 65.31
1/31/2024 123.94601 69.6
2/29/2024 89.21878 62.58
3/31/2024 95.18608 82.19
4/30/2024 108.46833 90.97
5/31/2024 105.79826 94.48
6/30/2024 117.83446 89.06
7/31/2024 118.27819 101.37
8/31/2024 114.29435 98.14
9/30/2024 107.8773 128.64
10/31/2024 97.28203 147.93
11/30/2024 162.50269 373.31
12/31/2024 158.87294 247.68
1/31/2025 169.37551 360.89
2/28/2025 233.65457 469.77

Note: For economic policy uncertainty, 1985=100; for trade policy uncertainty, 1% share of articles = 100.

Source: Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016); Caldara and other (2020); Haver Analytics.

Last Update: April 02, 2025