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Accessible Version

Slide 1. World Trade and Growth

Percent change from year earlier
Year Real Imports Real GDP Mean of Real
Imports
2000-2007		 Mean of Real
Imports
2011-2015
1995 9.49 2.96 ND (No Data) ND
1996 7.10 3.34 ND ND
1997 9.72 3.76 ND ND
1998 5.26 2.44 ND ND
1999 5.20 3.30 ND ND
2000 12.49 4.33 7.00 ND
2001 0.27 1.97 7.00 ND
2002 2.72 2.18 7.00 ND
2003 5.31 2.90 7.00 ND
2004 10.74 4.46 7.00 ND
2005 7.85 3.82 7.00 ND
2006 8.90 4.38 7.00 ND
2007 7.49 4.31 7.00 ND
2008 2.89 1.84 ND ND
2009 -11.98 -1.68 ND ND
2010 12.39 4.35 ND ND
2011 6.78 3.13 ND 3.40
2012 2.38 2.48 ND 3.40
2013 2.32 2.40 ND 3.40
2014 2.89 2.63 ND 3.40
2015 2.82 2.47 ND 3.40

Note: GDP is gross domestic product.
Source: The World Bank, World Development Indicators, accessed in 2016, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators.

Slide 2. World Trade as a Share of GDP

Percent
Year Real
1980 15.18
1981 15.05
1982 14.66
1983 14.58
1984 15.13
1985 15.09
1986 15.36
1987 15.81
1988 16.30
1989 17.03
1990 17.42
1991 17.19
1992 17.30
1993 17.27
1994 18.29
1995 19.46
1996 20.17
1997 21.32
1998 21.91
1999 22.31
2000 24.06
2001 23.66
2002 23.78
2003 24.34
2004 25.80
2005 26.80
2006 27.96
2007 28.82
2008 29.11
2009 26.06
2010 28.07
2011 29.07
2012 29.04
2013 29.02
2014 29.09
2015 29.19

Note: GDP is gross domestic product. Shaded bars represent FRB-defined global recessions (April 1982-October 1982, January 2001-November 2001, and May 2008-August 2009): 55% of word GDP in recession.
Source: The World Bank, World Development Indicators, accessed in 2016.

Slide 3. Real Import Growth

Average annual growth (percent)
Period United States AFE EME Asia EME Latam
2000-2007 3.94 3.08 10.44 5.40
2011-2015 3.26 1.18 3.18 3.12

Note: EME is emerging market economies. EME Asia includes China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. EME Latam includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.
Source: FRB staff calculations; Netherlands Bureau of Policy Analysis, World Trade Monitor, accessed in 2016, http://www.cpb.nl/en/data.

Slide 4. Import and Real GDP Growth Differential

Average annual growth (percent)
Period United States AFE EME Asia EME Latam
2000-2007 1.46 0.91 1.63 1.86
2011-2015 1.27 0.20 -3.26 1.70

Note: GDP is gross domestic product. AFE is advanced foreign economies. EME is emerging market economies. EME Asia includes China, Hong Kong. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. EME Latam includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.
Source: FRB staff calculations: Netherlands Bureau of Policy Analysis, World Trade Monitor, accessed in 2016, http://www.cpb.nl/en/data.

Slide 5. World GDP Components

Average annual growth (percent)
Period GDP Investment Consumption
2000-2007 3.54 4.71 3.36
2011-2015 2.62 3.14 2.34

Note: GDP is gross domestic product.
Source: The World Bank, World Development Indicators, accessed in 2016, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators.

Slide 6. Foreign Value Added in World Gross Exports

Year Ratio
1995 0.18
1996 0.19
1997 0.19
1998 0.19
1999 0.2
2000 0.21
2001 0.21
2002 0.21
2003 0.22
2004 0.23
2005 0.23
2006 0.24
2007 0.24
2008 0.25
2009 0.23
2010 0.24
2011 0.25
2012 0.25
2013 0.25
2014 0.25
2015 ND

Source: FRB staff estimates based on data from World Input-Output Database, 2016 and for pre-2000, data from World Input-Output Database, 2013. Coverage of countries and industries differs slightly for pre-2000 period; http://www.wiod.org/home.

Slide 7. World Real Trade

Percent of world GDP
Year Actual Counterfactual
2005 26.8 ND
2006 27.96 ND
2007 28.82 ND
2008 29.11 ND
2009 26.06 ND
2010 28.07 ND
2011 29.07 ND
2012 29.04 29.26
2013 29.02 29.32
2014 29.09 29.48
2015 29.19 29.95

* Keeping China's exports and imports constant as a share of GDP from 2011, the vertical line.
Note: World imports used. GDP is gross domestic product.
Source: FRB staff estimates based on data from the World Bank. The World Bank, World Development Indicators, accessed in 2016, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators.

Slide 8. China's Processing Trade

Percent
Year Domestic content of
processing exports*		 Processing exports,
percent of total
2000 32.52 55.14
2001 36.27 55.39
2002 32.10 55.21
2003 32.41 55.06
2004 31.90 55.30
2005 34.07 54.51
2006 36.63 52.75
2007 40.22 50.71
2008 44.04 47.37
2009 45.51 48.84
2010 43.47 46.95
2011 43.68 44.17
2012 44.25 42.35
2013 42.33 38.93
2014 40.51 37.92
2015 43.88 35.21

* Processing exports less processing imports, expressed as a percent of processing exports. Return to table
Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff estimates.

Slide 9. China: Imports of Parts and Components

Year Percent of total
manufactured imports
2005 65.74
2014 43.38

Note: China includes Hong Kong.
Source: FRB staff estimates based on Commodity Trade Statistics database (Comtrade), updated using the methodology of Haltmaier et. al (2007). United Nations, Comtrade, Department of Economic and Social Affairs / Statistics Division, http://comtrade.un.org/db/.

Slide 10. China's Rebalancing: Demand

Percent of GDP
Year Consumption Investment
2000 63.30 34.33
2001 61.61 36.30
2002 60.57 36.90
2003 57.49 40.37
2004 54.74 42.66
2005 53.62 40.98
2006 51.86 40.61
2007 50.14 41.24
2008 49.22 43.21
2009 49.37 46.33
2010 48.45 47.88
2011 49.59 48.01
2012 50.11 47.18
2013 50.31 47.25
2014 50.73 46.77
2015 51.61 44.94

Source: Haver Analytics; FRB staff estimates.

Slide 11. China's Rebalancing: Supply

Percent of GDP
Year Manufacturing Services
2000 45.40 39.79
2001 44.64 41.22
2002 44.24 42.25
2003 45.33 42.03
2004 45.65 41.18
2005 46.56 41.33
2006 47.18 41.82
2007 46.61 42.86
2008 46.87 42.82
2009 45.78 44.33
2010 46.66 44.07
2011 46.71 44.16
2012 45.22 45.31
2013 43.88 46.70
2014 42.89 47.84
2015 40.28 50.19

Source: Haver Analytics: FRB staff estimates.

Slide 12. Growth and Export Orientation

Country GDP growth, average
2000-2007		 Exports/GDP
(2000)
AL 3.34 0.16
AR 3.97 0.09
BZ 3.78 0.09
CA 2.66 0.37
CH 10.65 0.21
CL 4.43 0.25
CO 4.59 0.13
EA 2.14 0.13
HK 5.33 1.18
ID 5.23 0.35
IN 7.58 0.09
IS 3.80 0.24
JA 1.55 0.10
KO 5.16 0.31
MA 5.45 0.97
MX 2.69 0.24
PH 5.03 0.47
RU 7.19 0.37
SA 4.16 0.39
SD 3.25 0.34
SI 6.54 1.44
SZ 2.37 0.30
TA 5.29 0.46
TH 5.26 0.55
UK 2.76 0.17
VE 7.27 0.28

Note: GDP is gross domestic product. Line is the regression fit line including all countries. AL=Australia, AR=Argentina. BZ=Brazil, CA=Canada, CH=China, CL=Chile, CO=Colombia, EA=Euro area, HK=Hong Kong, ID=lndonesia, IN=lndia, IS=lsrael, JA=Japan, KO=South Korea, MA=Malaysia, MX=Mexico, PH=Philippines, RU=Russia, SA=Saudi Arabia, SD=Sweden, SI=Singapore, SZ=South Africa, TA=Taiwan, TH=Thailand, VE=Venezuela, UK=United Kingdom.
Source: FRB staff estimates based on data from Haver Analytics and World Economic Outlook Database (April 2016).

Slide 13. Asia ex. China: Parts and Components Exports

Year Exports to
the world		 Exports to
China/Hong Kong		 Exports to
the rest of the world
2005 36.6 67.17 16.68
2014 30.41 59.6 16.71

Source: FRB staff estimates based on Commodity Trade Statistics database (Comtrade), updated using methodology of Haltmaier et. al (2007). United Nations, Comtrade, Department of Economic and Social Affairs / Statistics Division, http://comtrade.un.org/db/. Asia ex. China includes following selection in Comtrade: India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, and Other Asia.

Slide 14

Effect of AE Growth on Asia ex. China Growth

Period Coefficient Upper CI Lower CI
1990:Q1 0.15 0.67 -0.36
1990:Q2 0.39 0.97 -0.20
1990:Q3 0.37 0.96 -0.21
1990:Q4 0.46 0.99 -0.07
1991:Q1 0.44 0.98 -0.09
1991:Q2 0.47 1.01 -0.07
1991:Q3 0.44 0.97 -0.09
1991:Q4 0.31 0.86 -0.24
1992:Q1 0.29 0.88 -0.30
1992:Q2 0.30 0.89 -0.30
1992:Q3 0.34 0.96 -0.28
1992:Q4 0.33 0.95 -0.29
1993:Q1 0.32 0.94 -0.30
1993:Q2 0.05 0.59 -0.50
1993:Q3 0.06 0.61 -0.49
1993:Q4 0.08 0.64 -0.49
1994:Q1 0.09 0.68 -0.51
1994:Q2 0.12 0.73 -0.49
1994:Q3 0.09 0.70 -0.52
1994:Q4 0.06 0.59 -0.46
1995:Q1 0.03 0.56 -0.50
1995:Q2 0.05 0.59 -0.48
1995:Q3 0.15 0.68 -0.38
1995:Q4 0.19 0.69 -0.31
1996:Q1 0.18 0.67 -0.32
1996:Q2 0.24 0.73 -0.25
1996:Q3 0.25 0.75 -0.24
1996:Q4 0.24 0.69 -0.22
1997:Q1 0.23 0.71 -0.24
1997:Q2 0.05 0.48 -0.37
1997:Q3 -0.02 0.43 -0.47
1997:Q4 0.17 0.68 -0.35
1998:Q1 0.31 0.98 -0.36
1998:Q2 0.32 1.02 -0.38
1998:Q3 0.26 0.98 -0.47
1998:Q4 0.14 0.86 -0.57
1999:Q1 0.09 0.87 -0.70
1999:Q2 0.13 0.94 -0.69
1999:Q3 0.09 0.90 -0.72
1999:Q4 0.05 0.82 -0.73
2000:Q1 0.09 0.87 -0.69
2000:Q2 0.03 0.81 -0.75
2000:Q3 0.05 0.82 -0.72
2000:Q4 0.01 0.91 -0.89
2001:Q1 0.24 1.19 -0.72
2001:Q2 0.27 1.21 -0.67
2001:Q3 0.40 1.30 -0.50
2001:Q4 0.38 1.26 -0.51
2002:Q1 0.37 1.25 -0.52
2002:Q2 0.33 1.22 -0.56
2002:Q3 0.33 1.23 -0.56
2002:Q4 0.35 1.23 -0.53
2003:Q1 0.43 1.29 -0.43
2003:Q2 0.51 1.40 -0.37
2003:Q3 0.72 1.65 -0.20
2003:Q4 0.81 1.74 -0.13
2004:Q1 0.79 1.73 -0.15
2004:Q2 0.85 1.79 -0.09
2004:Q3 0.91 1.85 -0.03
2004:Q4 1.03 1.94 0.12
2005:Q1 1.10 2.00 0.21
2005:Q2 1.13 2.03 0.23
2005:Q3 1.13 2.04 0.23
2005:Q4 1.12 2.03 0.22
2006:Q1 1.12 2.02 0.22
2006:Q2 1.04 1.98 0.10
2006:Q3 0.91 1.86 -0.04
2006:Q4 0.87 1.84 -0.09
2007:Q1 0.89 1.83 -0.06
2007:Q2 0.85 1.80 -0.10
2007:Q3 0.89 1.86 -0.07
2007:Q4 0.84 1.81 -0.13
2008:Q1 0.68 1.47 -0.10
2008:Q2 0.76 1.43 0.10
2008:Q3 0.89 1.49 0.30
2008:Q4 1.11 1.53 0.69
2009:Q1 0.93 1.25 0.61
2009:Q2 0.79 1.12 0.47
2009:Q3 0.78 1.11 0.44
2009:Q4 0.80 1.14 0.46
2010:Q1 0.77 1.12 0.41
2010:Q2 0.84 1.20 0.49
2010:Q3 0.83 1.18 0.48
2010:Q4 0.88 1.21 0.54
2011:Q1 0.85 1.19 0.52
2011:Q2 0.86 1.20 0.52
2011:Q3 0.82 1.17 0.48
2011:Q4 0.82 1.17 0.48
2012:Q1 0.84 1.19 0.49
2012:Q2 0.83 1.19 0.48
2012:Q3 0.84 1.19 0.49
2012:Q4 0.82 1.18 0.47
2013:Q1 0.80 1.15 0.46
2013:Q2 0.84 1.20 0.49
2013:Q3 0.83 1.18 0.48
2013:Q4 0.78 1.12 0.44
2014:Q1 0.81 1.14 0.48
2014:Q2 0.81 1.14 0.48
2014:Q3 0.81 1.14 0.48
2014:Q4 0.79 1.12 0.46
2015:Q1 0.77 1.09 0.45
2015:Q2 0.74 1.05 0.43
2015:Q3 0.76 1.07 0.45
2015:Q4 0.76 1.07 0.45

Note: 10-year rolling regression: 95% confidence interval shown. AE is advanced economies.
Source: FRB staff estimates.

Effect of China Growth on Asia ex. China Growth

Period Coefficient Upper CI Lower CI
1990:Q1 0.01 0.23 -0.20
1990:Q2 0.01 0.22 -0.21
1990:Q3 0.01 0.22 -0.21
1990:Q4 -0.02 0.19 -0.23
1991:Q1 -0.02 0.20 -0.24
1991:Q2 -0.02 0.20 -0.24
1991:Q3 -0.01 0.20 -0.22
1991:Q4 0.00 0.21 -0.20
1992:Q1 0.00 0.21 -0.21
1992:Q2 -0.01 0.19 -0.21
1992:Q3 -0.01 0.19 -0.22
1992:Q4 -0.01 0.19 -0.21
1993:Q1 -0.01 0.20 -0.21
1993:Q2 -0.02 0.16 -0.20
1993:Q3 0.00 0.18 -0.18
1993:Q4 0.00 0.18 -0.18
1994:Q1 0.00 0.18 -0.18
1994:Q2 0.01 0.19 -0.17
1994:Q3 0.02 0.21 -0.17
1994:Q4 0.06 0.22 -0.11
1995:Q1 0.06 0.23 -0.10
1995:Q2 0.07 0.24 -0.10
1995:Q3 0.09 0.25 -0.08
1995:Q4 0.08 0.24 -0.07
1996:Q1 0.11 0.27 -0.06
1996:Q2 0.10 0.26 -0.06
1996:Q3 0.09 0.26 -0.08
1996:Q4 0.09 0.25 -0.06
1997:Q1 0.11 0.28 -0.05
1997:Q2 0.06 0.20 -0.09
1997:Q3 0.05 0.21 -0.11
1997:Q4 0.07 0.23 -0.09
1998:Q1 0.18 0.39 -0.02
1998:Q2 0.19 0.40 -0.02
1998:Q3 0.19 0.40 -0.03
1998:Q4 0.18 0.39 -0.04
1999:Q1 0.14 0.38 -0.10
1999:Q2 0.12 0.37 -0.12
1999:Q3 0.13 0.37 -0.11
1999:Q4 0.17 0.42 -0.08
2000:Q1 0.16 0.45 -0.12
2000:Q2 0.17 0.46 -0.12
2000:Q3 0.17 0.45 -0.12
2000:Q4 0.18 0.47 -0.12
2001:Q1 0.24 0.56 -0.08
2001:Q2 0.24 0.56 -0.08
2001:Q3 0.23 0.57 -0.10
2001:Q4 0.22 0.56 -0.12
2002:Q1 0.22 0.56 -0.12
2002:Q2 0.28 0.68 -0.12
2002:Q3 0.29 0.71 -0.13
2002:Q4 0.29 0.71 -0.13
2003:Q1 0.25 0.68 -0.17
2003:Q2 0.23 0.65 -0.20
2003:Q3 0.21 0.63 -0.22
2003:Q4 0.24 0.69 -0.20
2004:Q1 0.22 0.66 -0.23
2004:Q2 0.16 0.62 -0.30
2004:Q3 0.19 0.65 -0.26
2004:Q4 0.18 0.62 -0.26
2005:Q1 0.13 0.54 -0.27
2005:Q2 0.09 0.50 -0.32
2005:Q3 0.09 0.49 -0.31
2005:Q4 0.13 0.52 -0.26
2006:Q1 0.13 0.51 -0.25
2006:Q2 0.14 0.52 -0.24
2006:Q3 0.17 0.56 -0.22
2006:Q4 0.17 0.55 -0.21
2007:Q1 0.19 0.53 -0.15
2007:Q2 0.20 0.53 -0.14
2007:Q3 0.17 0.52 -0.17
2007:Q4 0.21 0.55 -0.13
2008:Q1 0.05 0.34 -0.25
2008:Q2 0.02 0.28 -0.25
2008:Q3 0.00 0.26 -0.25
2008:Q4 0.03 0.28 -0.22
2009:Q1 0.18 0.45 -0.08
2009:Q2 0.36 0.62 0.10
2009:Q3 0.39 0.66 0.13
2009:Q4 0.39 0.65 0.13
2010:Q1 0.44 0.72 0.15
2010:Q2 0.40 0.68 0.12
2010:Q3 0.42 0.70 0.14
2010:Q4 0.38 0.64 0.11
2011:Q1 0.37 0.63 0.10
2011:Q2 0.36 0.64 0.09
2011:Q3 0.40 0.68 0.12
2011:Q4 0.40 0.68 0.13
2012:Q1 0.38 0.65 0.10
2012:Q2 0.38 0.66 0.11
2012:Q3 0.38 0.66 0.11
2012:Q4 0.37 0.65 0.10
2013:Q1 0.39 0.66 0.12
2013:Q2 0.34 0.62 0.05
2013:Q3 0.32 0.61 0.04
2013:Q4 0.34 0.61 0.06
2014:Q1 0.33 0.59 0.07
2014:Q2 0.32 0.58 0.06
2014:Q3 0.32 0.58 0.07
2014:Q4 0.34 0.60 0.09
2015:Q1 0.42 0.67 0.16
2015:Q2 0.44 0.69 0.19
2015:Q3 0.45 0.69 0.20
2015:Q4 0.45 0.70 0.21

Note: 10-year rolling regression: 95% confidence interval shown.
Source: FRB staff estimates.

Slide 15. Current Account: EME Asia ex. China

Year Percent of GDP
2005 2.62
2006 3.47
2007 4.19
2008 2.25
2009 4.27
2010 2.54
2011 2.03
2012 0.92
2013 2.09
2014 2.92
2015 4.01

Note: GDP is gross domestic product. Aggregated using nominal U.S. dollar GDP weights. Includes Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea. Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand.
Source: Haver Analytics: FRB staff estimates.

Slide 16. Current Account

Year Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore Indonesia India Philippines Thailand South Korea Taiwan China
2004-2007 11.83 13.89 22.99 1.42 -0.73 3.70 1.08 1.62 5.68 6.76
2011-present 2.74 4.90 19.34 -2.14 -2.51 3.00 3.59 5.35 10.97 2.30

Source: Haver Analytics; The World Bank, World Development Indicators, accessed in 2016, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators.

Last Update: November 18, 2016