Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Figure 1: Real-Time Projections of Longer-Run Normal Values
Neutral Real Rate of Interest
Percent
| Period | FOMC | Blue Chip | CBO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012:Q1 | 2.25 | NA | 1.74 |
| 2012:Q2 | 2.25 | 1.20 | NA |
| 2012:Q3 | 2.13 | NA | 1.74 |
| 2012:Q4 | 2.00 | 1.40 | NA |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.00 | NA | 1.92 |
| 2013:Q2 | 2.00 | 1.40 | NA |
| 2013:Q3 | 1.88 | NA | NA |
| 2013:Q4 | 1.75 | 1.40 | NA |
| 2014:Q1 | 1.75 | NA | 1.65 |
| 2014:Q2 | 1.75 | 1.50 | NA |
| 2014:Q3 | 1.75 | NA | 1.51 |
| 2014:Q4 | 1.75 | 1.30 | NA |
| 2015:Q1 | 1.63 | NA | 1.42 |
| 2015:Q2 | 1.63 | 1.20 | NA |
| 2015:Q3 | 1.50 | NA | 1.43 |
| 2015:Q4 | 1.50 | 1.10 | NA |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.25 | NA | 1.28 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.00 | 1.00 | NA |
| 2016:Q3 | 0.88 | NA | 0.87 |
| 2016:Q4 | 1.00 | 0.70 | NA |
| 2017:Q1 | 1.00 | NA | 0.83 |
| 2017:Q2 | 1.00 | 0.80 | NA |
| 2017:Q3 | 0.80 | NA | 0.83 |
| 2017:Q4 | 0.80 | 0.80 | NA |
| 2018:Q1 | 0.90 | NA | NA |
| 2018:Q2 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.83 |
| 2018:Q3 | NA | NA | 0.83 |
Real GDP Growth
Percent
| Period | FOMC | Blue Chip | CBO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012:Q1 | 2.45 | NA | 2.39 |
| 2012:Q2 | 2.45 | 2.50 | NA |
| 2012:Q3 | 2.40 | NA | 2.24 |
| 2012:Q4 | 2.40 | 2.50 | NA |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.40 | NA | 2.18 |
| 2013:Q2 | 2.40 | 2.50 | NA |
| 2013:Q3 | 2.35 | NA | NA |
| 2013:Q4 | 2.30 | 2.40 | NA |
| 2014:Q1 | 2.25 | NA | 2.07 |
| 2014:Q2 | 2.20 | 2.40 | NA |
| 2014:Q3 | 2.15 | NA | 2.03 |
| 2014:Q4 | 2.15 | 2.30 | NA |
| 2015:Q1 | 2.15 | NA | 2.10 |
| 2015:Q2 | 2.15 | 2.30 | NA |
| 2015:Q3 | 2.00 | NA | 2.07 |
| 2015:Q4 | 2.00 | 2.20 | NA |
| 2016:Q1 | 2.00 | NA | 2.03 |
| 2016:Q2 | 2.00 | 2.20 | NA |
| 2016:Q3 | 1.80 | NA | 1.93 |
| 2016:Q4 | 1.80 | 2.10 | NA |
| 2017:Q1 | 1.80 | NA | 1.87 |
| 2017:Q2 | 1.80 | 2.10 | NA |
| 2017:Q3 | 1.80 | NA | 1.85 |
| 2017:Q4 | 1.80 | 2.00 | NA |
| 2018:Q1 | 1.80 | NA | NA |
| 2018:Q2 | 1.80 | 2.10 | 1.77 |
| 2018:Q3 | NA | NA | 1.76 |
Unemployment Rate
Percent
| Period | FOMC | Blue Chip | CBO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012:Q1 | 5.60 | NA | 5.50 |
| 2012:Q2 | 5.60 | 5.8 | NA |
| 2012:Q3 | 5.60 | NA | 5.36 |
| 2012:Q4 | 5.60 | 5.8 | NA |
| 2013:Q1 | 5.60 | NA | 5.50 |
| 2013:Q2 | 5.60 | 5.6 | NA |
| 2013:Q3 | 5.50 | NA | NA |
| 2013:Q4 | 5.50 | 5.6 | NA |
| 2014:Q1 | 5.40 | NA | 5.50 |
| 2014:Q2 | 5.35 | 5.3 | NA |
| 2014:Q3 | 5.35 | NA | 5.50 |
| 2014:Q4 | 5.35 | 5.4 | NA |
| 2015:Q1 | 5.10 | NA | 5.39 |
| 2015:Q2 | 5.10 | 5.1 | NA |
| 2015:Q3 | 5.05 | NA | 5.06 |
| 2015:Q4 | 4.90 | 5.0 | NA |
| 2016:Q1 | 4.80 | NA | 4.90 |
| 2016:Q2 | 4.80 | 4.9 | NA |
| 2016:Q3 | 4.80 | NA | 4.80 |
| 2016:Q4 | 4.80 | 4.8 | NA |
| 2017:Q1 | 4.70 | NA | 4.74 |
| 2017:Q2 | 4.60 | 4.7 | NA |
| 2017:Q3 | 4.60 | NA | 4.74 |
| 2017:Q4 | 4.60 | 4.6 | NA |
| 2018:Q1 | 4.50 | NA | NA |
| 2018:Q2 | 4.50 | 4.5 | 4.62 |
| 2018:Q3 | NA | NA | 4.62 |
Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through June 2018, and are projections of longer−term normal. The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through June 2018, and are projections for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual and extend through August 2018. For the left two panels, the projections are for 10 years in the future; the right panel shows the natural rate projection for the current quarter at the time of the projection. The neutral real interest rate is the three−month Treasury bill rate projection (Blue Chip and CBO) or the federal funds rate projection (FOMC) minus the source’s inflation projection. GDP is gross domestic product.
Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook) and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED).
Correction: In the original figure, CBO potential output growth as of August 2018 was incorrectly reported; the value has been corrected to 1.8 percent.
Figure 2: Current CBO Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment and the Potential Growth Rate of GDP
Percent
| Period | Potential growth | Natural rate of unemployment |
|---|---|---|
| 1960:Q1 | 3.95 | 5.48 |
| 1960:Q2 | 3.92 | 5.49 |
| 1960:Q3 | 3.89 | 5.51 |
| 1960:Q4 | 3.86 | 5.51 |
| 1961:Q1 | 3.86 | 5.51 |
| 1961:Q2 | 3.92 | 5.51 |
| 1961:Q3 | 4.02 | 5.51 |
| 1961:Q4 | 4.11 | 5.51 |
| 1962:Q1 | 4.24 | 5.50 |
| 1962:Q2 | 4.32 | 5.50 |
| 1962:Q3 | 4.39 | 5.51 |
| 1962:Q4 | 4.43 | 5.51 |
| 1963:Q1 | 4.40 | 5.53 |
| 1963:Q2 | 4.37 | 5.54 |
| 1963:Q3 | 4.34 | 5.55 |
| 1963:Q4 | 4.31 | 5.56 |
| 1964:Q1 | 4.32 | 5.57 |
| 1964:Q2 | 4.31 | 5.59 |
| 1964:Q3 | 4.31 | 5.60 |
| 1964:Q4 | 4.31 | 5.62 |
| 1965:Q1 | 4.32 | 5.64 |
| 1965:Q2 | 4.36 | 5.66 |
| 1965:Q3 | 4.42 | 5.69 |
| 1965:Q4 | 4.48 | 5.71 |
| 1966:Q1 | 4.56 | 5.74 |
| 1966:Q2 | 4.61 | 5.76 |
| 1966:Q3 | 4.65 | 5.78 |
| 1966:Q4 | 4.67 | 5.78 |
| 1967:Q1 | 4.64 | 5.78 |
| 1967:Q2 | 4.62 | 5.78 |
| 1967:Q3 | 4.59 | 5.78 |
| 1967:Q4 | 4.53 | 5.78 |
| 1968:Q1 | 4.46 | 5.78 |
| 1968:Q2 | 4.33 | 5.79 |
| 1968:Q3 | 4.17 | 5.80 |
| 1968:Q4 | 3.99 | 5.81 |
| 1969:Q1 | 3.76 | 5.82 |
| 1969:Q2 | 3.53 | 5.84 |
| 1969:Q3 | 3.31 | 5.85 |
| 1969:Q4 | 3.11 | 5.86 |
| 1970:Q1 | 2.99 | 5.88 |
| 1970:Q2 | 2.95 | 5.89 |
| 1970:Q3 | 2.93 | 5.90 |
| 1970:Q4 | 2.94 | 5.91 |
| 1971:Q1 | 2.97 | 5.92 |
| 1971:Q2 | 2.97 | 5.93 |
| 1971:Q3 | 2.98 | 5.95 |
| 1971:Q4 | 2.98 | 5.97 |
| 1972:Q1 | 2.98 | 6.00 |
| 1972:Q2 | 3.03 | 6.02 |
| 1972:Q3 | 3.10 | 6.05 |
| 1972:Q4 | 3.19 | 6.07 |
| 1973:Q1 | 3.32 | 6.10 |
| 1973:Q2 | 3.45 | 6.12 |
| 1973:Q3 | 3.56 | 6.14 |
| 1973:Q4 | 3.64 | 6.15 |
| 1974:Q1 | 3.65 | 6.16 |
| 1974:Q2 | 3.58 | 6.17 |
| 1974:Q3 | 3.49 | 6.17 |
| 1974:Q4 | 3.38 | 6.17 |
| 1975:Q1 | 3.28 | 6.17 |
| 1975:Q2 | 3.19 | 6.17 |
| 1975:Q3 | 3.13 | 6.17 |
| 1975:Q4 | 3.08 | 6.18 |
| 1976:Q1 | 3.09 | 6.19 |
| 1976:Q2 | 3.12 | 6.20 |
| 1976:Q3 | 3.17 | 6.21 |
| 1976:Q4 | 3.22 | 6.21 |
| 1977:Q1 | 3.27 | 6.22 |
| 1977:Q2 | 3.34 | 6.23 |
| 1977:Q3 | 3.41 | 6.24 |
| 1977:Q4 | 3.46 | 6.25 |
| 1978:Q1 | 3.47 | 6.26 |
| 1978:Q2 | 3.40 | 6.27 |
| 1978:Q3 | 3.29 | 6.27 |
| 1978:Q4 | 3.15 | 6.27 |
| 1979:Q1 | 2.94 | 6.26 |
| 1979:Q2 | 2.68 | 6.26 |
| 1979:Q3 | 2.42 | 6.25 |
| 1979:Q4 | 2.20 | 6.24 |
| 1980:Q1 | 2.09 | 6.23 |
| 1980:Q2 | 2.16 | 6.22 |
| 1980:Q3 | 2.29 | 6.21 |
| 1980:Q4 | 2.47 | 6.20 |
| 1981:Q1 | 2.72 | 6.19 |
| 1981:Q2 | 2.92 | 6.17 |
| 1981:Q3 | 3.09 | 6.16 |
| 1981:Q4 | 3.23 | 6.15 |
| 1982:Q1 | 3.24 | 6.13 |
| 1982:Q2 | 3.23 | 6.12 |
| 1982:Q3 | 3.22 | 6.11 |
| 1982:Q4 | 3.21 | 6.10 |
| 1983:Q1 | 3.27 | 6.09 |
| 1983:Q2 | 3.36 | 6.08 |
| 1983:Q3 | 3.46 | 6.07 |
| 1983:Q4 | 3.56 | 6.06 |
| 1984:Q1 | 3.64 | 6.05 |
| 1984:Q2 | 3.69 | 6.05 |
| 1984:Q3 | 3.72 | 6.04 |
| 1984:Q4 | 3.73 | 6.03 |
| 1985:Q1 | 3.72 | 6.03 |
| 1985:Q2 | 3.69 | 6.02 |
| 1985:Q3 | 3.65 | 6.02 |
| 1985:Q4 | 3.60 | 6.01 |
| 1986:Q1 | 3.56 | 6.00 |
| 1986:Q2 | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| 1986:Q3 | 3.45 | 5.99 |
| 1986:Q4 | 3.39 | 5.99 |
| 1987:Q1 | 3.33 | 5.98 |
| 1987:Q2 | 3.28 | 5.97 |
| 1987:Q3 | 3.23 | 5.97 |
| 1987:Q4 | 3.18 | 5.96 |
| 1988:Q1 | 3.14 | 5.95 |
| 1988:Q2 | 3.11 | 5.94 |
| 1988:Q3 | 3.08 | 5.93 |
| 1988:Q4 | 3.05 | 5.92 |
| 1989:Q1 | 3.01 | 5.91 |
| 1989:Q2 | 2.94 | 5.91 |
| 1989:Q3 | 2.86 | 5.90 |
| 1989:Q4 | 2.78 | 5.89 |
| 1990:Q1 | 2.68 | 5.89 |
| 1990:Q2 | 2.59 | 5.87 |
| 1990:Q3 | 2.51 | 5.86 |
| 1990:Q4 | 2.44 | 5.84 |
| 1991:Q1 | 2.40 | 5.82 |
| 1991:Q2 | 2.40 | 5.79 |
| 1991:Q3 | 2.42 | 5.77 |
| 1991:Q4 | 2.45 | 5.74 |
| 1992:Q1 | 2.50 | 5.71 |
| 1992:Q2 | 2.54 | 5.68 |
| 1992:Q3 | 2.59 | 5.65 |
| 1992:Q4 | 2.63 | 5.61 |
| 1993:Q1 | 2.67 | 5.58 |
| 1993:Q2 | 2.73 | 5.54 |
| 1993:Q3 | 2.78 | 5.51 |
| 1993:Q4 | 2.84 | 5.48 |
| 1994:Q1 | 2.89 | 5.44 |
| 1994:Q2 | 2.91 | 5.41 |
| 1994:Q3 | 2.92 | 5.38 |
| 1994:Q4 | 2.93 | 5.35 |
| 1995:Q1 | 2.93 | 5.33 |
| 1995:Q2 | 2.97 | 5.30 |
| 1995:Q3 | 3.02 | 5.28 |
| 1995:Q4 | 3.10 | 5.25 |
| 1996:Q1 | 3.24 | 5.23 |
| 1996:Q2 | 3.39 | 5.21 |
| 1996:Q3 | 3.56 | 5.19 |
| 1996:Q4 | 3.72 | 5.17 |
| 1997:Q1 | 3.84 | 5.15 |
| 1997:Q2 | 3.95 | 5.13 |
| 1997:Q3 | 4.03 | 5.12 |
| 1997:Q4 | 4.09 | 5.10 |
| 1998:Q1 | 4.11 | 5.09 |
| 1998:Q2 | 4.10 | 5.07 |
| 1998:Q3 | 4.07 | 5.06 |
| 1998:Q4 | 4.03 | 5.05 |
| 1999:Q1 | 3.98 | 5.04 |
| 1999:Q2 | 3.94 | 5.03 |
| 1999:Q3 | 3.89 | 5.03 |
| 1999:Q4 | 3.83 | 5.02 |
| 2000:Q1 | 3.77 | 5.01 |
| 2000:Q2 | 3.65 | 5.01 |
| 2000:Q3 | 3.51 | 5.01 |
| 2000:Q4 | 3.36 | 5.00 |
Note: Data are quarterly and extend through 2000:Q4.
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED).
Figure 3: Current and Real-Time Assessments of the Natural Rate of Unemployment and the Unemployment Rate
Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Current estimate | Real-time estimate | Actual unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1960:Q1 | 5.48 | NA | 5.13 |
| 1960:Q2 | 5.49 | NA | 5.23 |
| 1960:Q3 | 5.51 | NA | 5.53 |
| 1960:Q4 | 5.51 | NA | 6.27 |
| 1961:Q1 | 5.51 | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| 1961:Q2 | 5.51 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| 1961:Q3 | 5.51 | 4.00 | 6.77 |
| 1961:Q4 | 5.51 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| 1962:Q1 | 5.50 | 4.00 | 5.63 |
| 1962:Q2 | 5.50 | 4.00 | 5.53 |
| 1962:Q3 | 5.51 | 4.00 | 5.57 |
| 1962:Q4 | 5.51 | 4.00 | 5.53 |
| 1963:Q1 | 5.53 | 4.00 | 5.77 |
| 1963:Q2 | 5.54 | 4.00 | 5.73 |
| 1963:Q3 | 5.55 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| 1963:Q4 | 5.56 | 4.00 | 5.57 |
| 1964:Q1 | 5.57 | 4.00 | 5.47 |
| 1964:Q2 | 5.59 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| 1964:Q3 | 5.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| 1964:Q4 | 5.62 | 4.00 | 4.97 |
| 1965:Q1 | 5.64 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| 1965:Q2 | 5.66 | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| 1965:Q3 | 5.69 | 4.00 | 4.37 |
| 1965:Q4 | 5.71 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| 1966:Q1 | 5.74 | 4.00 | 3.87 |
| 1966:Q2 | 5.76 | 4.00 | 3.83 |
| 1966:Q3 | 5.78 | 4.00 | 3.77 |
| 1966:Q4 | 5.78 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| 1967:Q1 | 5.78 | 4.00 | 3.83 |
| 1967:Q2 | 5.78 | 4.00 | 3.83 |
| 1967:Q3 | 5.78 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| 1967:Q4 | 5.78 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| 1968:Q1 | 5.78 | 4.00 | 3.73 |
| 1968:Q2 | 5.79 | 4.00 | 3.57 |
| 1968:Q3 | 5.80 | 4.00 | 3.53 |
| 1968:Q4 | 5.81 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| 1969:Q1 | 5.82 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| 1969:Q2 | 5.84 | 4.00 | 3.43 |
| 1969:Q3 | 5.85 | 4.06 | 3.57 |
| 1969:Q4 | 5.86 | 4.19 | 3.57 |
| 1970:Q1 | 5.88 | 4.31 | 4.17 |
| 1970:Q2 | 5.89 | 4.44 | 4.77 |
| 1970:Q3 | 5.90 | 4.50 | 5.17 |
| 1970:Q4 | 5.91 | 4.50 | 5.83 |
| 1971:Q1 | 5.92 | 4.50 | 5.93 |
| 1971:Q2 | 5.93 | 4.50 | 5.90 |
| 1971:Q3 | 5.95 | 4.50 | 6.03 |
| 1971:Q4 | 5.97 | 4.50 | 5.93 |
| 1972:Q1 | 6.00 | 4.50 | 5.77 |
| 1972:Q2 | 6.02 | 4.50 | 5.70 |
| 1972:Q3 | 6.05 | 4.50 | 5.57 |
| 1972:Q4 | 6.07 | 4.50 | 5.37 |
| 1973:Q1 | 6.10 | 4.50 | 4.93 |
| 1973:Q2 | 6.12 | 4.50 | 4.93 |
| 1973:Q3 | 6.14 | 4.50 | 4.80 |
| 1973:Q4 | 6.15 | 4.50 | 4.77 |
| 1974:Q1 | 6.16 | 4.50 | 5.13 |
| 1974:Q2 | 6.17 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| 1974:Q3 | 6.17 | 4.50 | 5.63 |
| 1974:Q4 | 6.17 | 4.50 | 6.60 |
| 1975:Q1 | 6.17 | 4.50 | 8.27 |
| 1975:Q2 | 6.17 | 4.50 | 8.87 |
| 1975:Q3 | 6.17 | 4.50 | 8.47 |
| 1975:Q4 | 6.18 | 4.50 | 8.30 |
| 1976:Q1 | 6.19 | 4.50 | 7.73 |
| 1976:Q2 | 6.20 | 4.50 | 7.57 |
| 1976:Q3 | 6.21 | 4.56 | 7.73 |
| 1976:Q4 | 6.21 | 4.69 | 7.77 |
| 1977:Q1 | 6.22 | 4.81 | 7.50 |
| 1977:Q2 | 6.23 | 4.94 | 7.13 |
| 1977:Q3 | 6.24 | 5.03 | 6.90 |
| 1977:Q4 | 6.25 | 5.09 | 6.67 |
| 1978:Q1 | 6.26 | 5.16 | 6.33 |
| 1978:Q2 | 6.27 | 5.22 | 6.00 |
| 1978:Q3 | 6.27 | 5.31 | 6.03 |
| 1978:Q4 | 6.27 | 5.44 | 5.90 |
| 1979:Q1 | 6.26 | 5.56 | 5.87 |
| 1979:Q2 | 6.26 | 5.69 | 5.70 |
| 1979:Q3 | 6.25 | 5.75 | 5.87 |
| 1979:Q4 | 6.24 | 5.75 | 5.97 |
| 1980:Q1 | 6.23 | 5.75 | 6.30 |
| 1980:Q2 | 6.22 | 5.75 | 7.33 |
| 1980:Q3 | 6.21 | 5.75 | 7.67 |
| 1980:Q4 | 6.20 | 5.75 | 7.40 |
| 1981:Q1 | 6.19 | 5.75 | 7.43 |
| 1981:Q2 | 6.17 | 5.75 | 7.40 |
| 1981:Q3 | 6.16 | 5.75 | 7.40 |
| 1981:Q4 | 6.15 | 5.75 | 8.23 |
| 1982:Q1 | 6.13 | 5.75 | 8.83 |
| 1982:Q2 | 6.12 | 5.75 | 9.43 |
| 1982:Q3 | 6.11 | 5.78 | 9.90 |
| 1982:Q4 | 6.10 | 5.84 | 10.67 |
| 1983:Q1 | 6.09 | 5.91 | 10.37 |
| 1983:Q2 | 6.08 | 5.97 | 10.13 |
| 1983:Q3 | 6.07 | 6.00 | 9.37 |
| 1983:Q4 | 6.06 | 6.00 | 8.53 |
| 1984:Q1 | 6.05 | 6.00 | 7.87 |
| 1984:Q2 | 6.05 | 6.00 | 7.43 |
| 1984:Q3 | 6.04 | 6.03 | 7.43 |
| 1984:Q4 | 6.03 | 6.09 | 7.30 |
| 1985:Q1 | 6.03 | 6.16 | 7.23 |
| 1985:Q2 | 6.02 | 6.22 | 7.30 |
| 1985:Q3 | 6.02 | 6.25 | 7.20 |
| 1985:Q4 | 6.01 | 6.25 | 7.03 |
| 1986:Q1 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 7.03 |
| 1986:Q2 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 7.17 |
| 1986:Q3 | 5.99 | 6.22 | 6.97 |
| 1986:Q4 | 5.99 | 6.16 | 6.83 |
| 1987:Q1 | 5.98 | 6.09 | 6.60 |
| 1987:Q2 | 5.97 | 6.03 | 6.27 |
| 1987:Q3 | 5.97 | 5.96 | 6.00 |
| 1987:Q4 | 5.96 | 5.89 | 5.83 |
| 1988:Q1 | 5.95 | 5.81 | 5.70 |
| 1988:Q2 | 5.94 | 5.74 | 5.47 |
| 1988:Q3 | 5.93 | 5.68 | 5.47 |
| 1988:Q4 | 5.92 | 5.63 | 5.33 |
| 1989:Q1 | 5.91 | 5.57 | 5.20 |
| 1989:Q2 | 5.91 | 5.53 | 5.23 |
| 1989:Q3 | 5.90 | 5.50 | 5.23 |
| 1989:Q4 | 5.89 | 5.50 | 5.37 |
| 1990:Q1 | 5.89 | 5.50 | 5.30 |
| 1990:Q2 | 5.87 | 5.50 | 5.33 |
| 1990:Q3 | 5.86 | 5.49 | 5.70 |
| 1990:Q4 | 5.84 | 5.46 | 6.13 |
| 1991:Q1 | 5.82 | 5.44 | 6.60 |
| 1991:Q2 | 5.79 | 5.41 | 6.83 |
| 1991:Q3 | 5.77 | 5.43 | 6.87 |
| 1991:Q4 | 5.74 | 5.47 | 7.10 |
| 1992:Q1 | 5.71 | 5.53 | 7.37 |
| 1992:Q2 | 5.68 | 5.57 | 7.60 |
| 1992:Q3 | 5.65 | 5.59 | 7.63 |
| 1992:Q4 | 5.61 | 5.56 | 7.37 |
| 1993:Q1 | 5.58 | 5.54 | 7.13 |
| 1993:Q2 | 5.54 | 5.51 | 7.07 |
| 1993:Q3 | 5.51 | 5.56 | 6.80 |
| 1993:Q4 | 5.48 | 5.69 | 6.63 |
| 1994:Q1 | 5.44 | 5.81 | 6.57 |
| 1994:Q2 | 5.41 | 5.94 | 6.20 |
| 1994:Q3 | 5.38 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| 1994:Q4 | 5.35 | 6.00 | 5.63 |
| 1995:Q1 | 5.33 | 6.00 | 5.47 |
| 1995:Q2 | 5.30 | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| 1995:Q3 | 5.28 | 5.97 | 5.67 |
| 1995:Q4 | 5.25 | 5.93 | 5.57 |
| 1996:Q1 | 5.23 | 5.88 | 5.53 |
| 1996:Q2 | 5.21 | 5.82 | 5.50 |
| 1996:Q3 | 5.19 | 5.80 | 5.27 |
| 1996:Q4 | 5.17 | 5.80 | 5.33 |
| 1997:Q1 | 5.15 | 5.80 | 5.23 |
| 1997:Q2 | 5.13 | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| 1997:Q3 | 5.12 | 5.80 | 4.87 |
| 1997:Q4 | 5.10 | 5.80 | 4.67 |
| 1998:Q1 | 5.09 | 5.80 | 4.63 |
| 1998:Q2 | 5.07 | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| 1998:Q3 | 5.06 | 5.78 | 4.53 |
| 1998:Q4 | 5.05 | 5.72 | 4.43 |
| 1999:Q1 | 5.04 | 5.68 | 4.30 |
| 1999:Q2 | 5.03 | 5.63 | 4.27 |
| 1999:Q3 | 5.03 | 5.55 | 4.23 |
| 1999:Q4 | 5.02 | 5.45 | 4.07 |
| 2000:Q1 | 5.01 | 5.35 | 4.03 |
| 2000:Q2 | 5.01 | 5.25 | 3.93 |
| 2000:Q3 | 5.01 | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| 2000:Q4 | 5.00 | 5.20 | 3.90 |
Note: Data extend through 2000:Q4. Data for the real-time estimate begin in January 1961.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook) and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED); Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams (2005), "The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, vol. 29 (November), pp. 1927-50.
Figure 4: Unemployment Rate Relative to Assessments of the Natural Rate
Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Real-time assessment (Top panel) |
Current assessment (Lower panel) |
|---|---|---|
| 1961:Q1 | 2.80 | 1.29 |
| 1961:Q2 | 3.00 | 1.49 |
| 1961:Q3 | 2.77 | 1.26 |
| 1961:Q4 | 2.20 | 0.69 |
| 1962:Q1 | 1.63 | 0.13 |
| 1962:Q2 | 1.53 | 0.03 |
| 1962:Q3 | 1.57 | 0.06 |
| 1962:Q4 | 1.53 | 0.02 |
| 1963:Q1 | 1.77 | 0.24 |
| 1963:Q2 | 1.73 | 0.19 |
| 1963:Q3 | 1.50 | -0.05 |
| 1963:Q4 | 1.57 | 0.01 |
| 1964:Q1 | 1.47 | -0.10 |
| 1964:Q2 | 1.20 | -0.39 |
| 1964:Q3 | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| 1964:Q4 | 0.97 | -0.65 |
| 1965:Q1 | 0.90 | -0.74 |
| 1965:Q2 | 0.67 | -0.99 |
| 1965:Q3 | 0.37 | -1.32 |
| 1965:Q4 | 0.10 | -1.61 |
| 1966:Q1 | -0.13 | -1.87 |
| 1966:Q2 | -0.17 | -1.93 |
| 1966:Q3 | -0.23 | -2.01 |
| 1966:Q4 | -0.30 | -2.08 |
| 1967:Q1 | -0.17 | -1.95 |
| 1967:Q2 | -0.17 | -1.95 |
| 1967:Q3 | -0.20 | -1.98 |
| 1967:Q4 | -0.10 | -1.88 |
| 1968:Q1 | -0.27 | -2.05 |
| 1968:Q2 | -0.43 | -2.22 |
| 1968:Q3 | -0.47 | -2.27 |
| 1968:Q4 | -0.60 | -2.41 |
| 1969:Q1 | -0.60 | -2.42 |
| 1969:Q2 | -0.57 | -2.41 |
| 1969:Q3 | -0.50 | -2.28 |
| 1969:Q4 | -0.62 | -2.29 |
| 1970:Q1 | -0.15 | -1.71 |
| 1970:Q2 | 0.33 | -1.12 |
| 1970:Q3 | 0.67 | -0.73 |
| 1970:Q4 | 1.33 | -0.08 |
| 1971:Q1 | 1.43 | 0.01 |
| 1971:Q2 | 1.40 | -0.03 |
| 1971:Q3 | 1.53 | 0.08 |
| 1971:Q4 | 1.43 | -0.04 |
| 1972:Q1 | 1.27 | -0.23 |
| 1972:Q2 | 1.20 | -0.32 |
| 1972:Q3 | 1.07 | -0.48 |
| 1972:Q4 | 0.87 | -0.70 |
| 1973:Q1 | 0.43 | -1.17 |
| 1973:Q2 | 0.43 | -1.19 |
| 1973:Q3 | 0.30 | -1.34 |
| 1973:Q4 | 0.27 | -1.38 |
| 1974:Q1 | 0.63 | -1.03 |
| 1974:Q2 | 0.70 | -0.97 |
| 1974:Q3 | 1.13 | -0.54 |
| 1974:Q4 | 2.10 | 0.43 |
| 1975:Q1 | 3.77 | 2.10 |
| 1975:Q2 | 4.37 | 2.70 |
| 1975:Q3 | 3.97 | 2.30 |
| 1975:Q4 | 3.80 | 2.12 |
| 1976:Q1 | 3.23 | 1.54 |
| 1976:Q2 | 3.07 | 1.37 |
| 1976:Q3 | 3.17 | 1.52 |
| 1976:Q4 | 3.08 | 1.56 |
| 1977:Q1 | 2.69 | 1.28 |
| 1977:Q2 | 2.20 | 0.90 |
| 1977:Q3 | 1.87 | 0.66 |
| 1977:Q4 | 1.57 | 0.42 |
| 1978:Q1 | 1.18 | 0.07 |
| 1978:Q2 | 0.78 | -0.27 |
| 1978:Q3 | 0.72 | -0.24 |
| 1978:Q4 | 0.46 | -0.37 |
| 1979:Q1 | 0.30 | -0.39 |
| 1979:Q2 | 0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1979:Q3 | 0.12 | -0.38 |
| 1979:Q4 | 0.22 | -0.27 |
| 1980:Q1 | 0.55 | 0.07 |
| 1980:Q2 | 1.58 | 1.11 |
| 1980:Q3 | 1.92 | 1.46 |
| 1980:Q4 | 1.65 | 1.20 |
| 1981:Q1 | 1.68 | 1.24 |
| 1981:Q2 | 1.65 | 1.23 |
| 1981:Q3 | 1.65 | 1.24 |
| 1981:Q4 | 2.48 | 2.08 |
| 1982:Q1 | 3.08 | 2.70 |
| 1982:Q2 | 3.68 | 3.31 |
| 1982:Q3 | 4.12 | 3.79 |
| 1982:Q4 | 4.82 | 4.57 |
| 1983:Q1 | 4.46 | 4.28 |
| 1983:Q2 | 4.16 | 4.05 |
| 1983:Q3 | 3.37 | 3.30 |
| 1983:Q4 | 2.53 | 2.47 |
| 1984:Q1 | 1.87 | 1.82 |
| 1984:Q2 | 1.43 | 1.38 |
| 1984:Q3 | 1.40 | 1.39 |
| 1984:Q4 | 1.21 | 1.27 |
| 1985:Q1 | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| 1985:Q2 | 1.08 | 1.28 |
| 1985:Q3 | 0.95 | 1.18 |
| 1985:Q4 | 0.78 | 1.02 |
| 1986:Q1 | 0.78 | 1.03 |
| 1986:Q2 | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| 1986:Q3 | 0.75 | 0.98 |
| 1986:Q4 | 0.68 | 0.84 |
| 1987:Q1 | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| 1987:Q2 | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| 1987:Q3 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| 1987:Q4 | -0.05 | -0.13 |
| 1988:Q1 | -0.11 | -0.25 |
| 1988:Q2 | -0.27 | -0.47 |
| 1988:Q3 | -0.21 | -0.46 |
| 1988:Q4 | -0.29 | -0.59 |
| 1989:Q1 | -0.38 | -0.71 |
| 1989:Q2 | -0.29 | -0.68 |
| 1989:Q3 | -0.27 | -0.67 |
| 1989:Q4 | -0.13 | -0.52 |
| 1990:Q1 | -0.20 | -0.59 |
| 1990:Q2 | -0.17 | -0.54 |
| 1990:Q3 | 0.21 | -0.16 |
| 1990:Q4 | 0.67 | 0.29 |
| 1991:Q1 | 1.16 | 0.78 |
| 1991:Q2 | 1.42 | 1.04 |
| 1991:Q3 | 1.44 | 1.10 |
| 1991:Q4 | 1.63 | 1.36 |
| 1992:Q1 | 1.84 | 1.66 |
| 1992:Q2 | 2.03 | 1.92 |
| 1992:Q3 | 2.05 | 1.98 |
| 1992:Q4 | 1.80 | 1.76 |
| 1993:Q1 | 1.60 | 1.55 |
| 1993:Q2 | 1.55 | 1.53 |
| 1993:Q3 | 1.24 | 1.29 |
| 1993:Q4 | 0.95 | 1.15 |
| 1994:Q1 | 0.75 | 1.13 |
| 1994:Q2 | 0.26 | 0.79 |
| 1994:Q3 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| 1994:Q4 | -0.37 | 0.28 |
| 1995:Q1 | -0.53 | 0.14 |
| 1995:Q2 | -0.33 | 0.37 |
| 1995:Q3 | -0.31 | 0.39 |
| 1995:Q4 | -0.36 | 0.32 |
| 1996:Q1 | -0.34 | 0.30 |
| 1996:Q2 | -0.32 | 0.29 |
| 1996:Q3 | -0.53 | 0.08 |
| 1996:Q4 | -0.47 | 0.16 |
| 1997:Q1 | -0.57 | 0.08 |
| 1997:Q2 | -0.80 | -0.13 |
| 1997:Q3 | -0.93 | -0.25 |
| 1997:Q4 | -1.13 | -0.43 |
| 1998:Q1 | -1.17 | -0.46 |
| 1998:Q2 | -1.40 | -0.67 |
| 1998:Q3 | -1.24 | -0.53 |
| 1998:Q4 | -1.29 | -0.62 |
| 1999:Q1 | -1.38 | -0.74 |
| 1999:Q2 | -1.36 | -0.76 |
| 1999:Q3 | -1.32 | -0.80 |
| 1999:Q4 | -1.38 | -0.95 |
| 2000:Q1 | -1.32 | -0.98 |
| 2000:Q2 | -1.32 | -1.08 |
| 2000:Q3 | -1.20 | -1.01 |
| 2000:Q4 | -1.30 | -1.10 |
Note: Data extend through 2000:Q4. Negative data values are "hotter," and positive data values are "colder."
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook) and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED); Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams (2005), "The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, vol. 29 (November), pp. 1927-50.
Last Update:
August 30, 2018