Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Figure 1. Unemployment Rate and Overall Inflation Rate
Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Unemployment rate | Inflation rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1960:Q1 | 5.13 | 1.69 |
| 1960:Q2 | 5.23 | 1.81 |
| 1960:Q3 | 5.53 | 1.58 |
| 1960:Q4 | 6.27 | 1.48 |
| 1961:Q1 | 6.80 | 1.53 |
| 1961:Q2 | 7.00 | 0.99 |
| 1961:Q3 | 6.77 | 0.98 |
| 1961:Q4 | 6.20 | 0.64 |
| 1962:Q1 | 5.63 | 0.89 |
| 1962:Q2 | 5.53 | 1.26 |
| 1962:Q3 | 5.57 | 1.17 |
| 1962:Q4 | 5.53 | 1.37 |
| 1963:Q1 | 5.77 | 1.22 |
| 1963:Q2 | 5.73 | 1.02 |
| 1963:Q3 | 5.50 | 1.24 |
| 1963:Q4 | 5.57 | 1.30 |
| 1964:Q1 | 5.47 | 1.49 |
| 1964:Q2 | 5.20 | 1.55 |
| 1964:Q3 | 5.00 | 1.40 |
| 1964:Q4 | 4.97 | 1.36 |
| 1965:Q1 | 4.90 | 1.21 |
| 1965:Q2 | 4.67 | 1.50 |
| 1965:Q3 | 4.37 | 1.54 |
| 1965:Q4 | 4.10 | 1.52 |
| 1966:Q1 | 3.87 | 1.97 |
| 1966:Q2 | 3.83 | 2.29 |
| 1966:Q3 | 3.77 | 2.68 |
| 1966:Q4 | 3.70 | 3.16 |
| 1967:Q1 | 3.83 | 2.67 |
| 1967:Q2 | 3.83 | 2.32 |
| 1967:Q3 | 3.80 | 2.49 |
| 1967:Q4 | 3.90 | 2.58 |
| 1968:Q1 | 3.73 | 3.37 |
| 1968:Q2 | 3.57 | 3.93 |
| 1968:Q3 | 3.53 | 4.04 |
| 1968:Q4 | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| 1969:Q1 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| 1969:Q2 | 3.43 | 4.46 |
| 1969:Q3 | 3.57 | 4.65 |
| 1969:Q4 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 1970:Q1 | 4.17 | 4.90 |
| 1970:Q2 | 4.77 | 4.73 |
| 1970:Q3 | 5.17 | 4.47 |
| 1970:Q4 | 5.83 | 4.61 |
| 1971:Q1 | 5.93 | 4.39 |
| 1971:Q2 | 5.90 | 4.43 |
| 1971:Q3 | 6.03 | 4.44 |
| 1971:Q4 | 5.93 | 3.74 |
| 1972:Q1 | 5.77 | 3.85 |
| 1972:Q2 | 5.70 | 3.27 |
| 1972:Q3 | 5.57 | 3.17 |
| 1972:Q4 | 5.37 | 3.37 |
| 1973:Q1 | 4.93 | 3.52 |
| 1973:Q2 | 4.93 | 4.91 |
| 1973:Q3 | 4.80 | 5.88 |
| 1973:Q4 | 4.77 | 7.18 |
| 1974:Q1 | 5.13 | 9.05 |
| 1974:Q2 | 5.20 | 10.02 |
| 1974:Q3 | 5.63 | 10.98 |
| 1974:Q4 | 6.60 | 11.51 |
| 1975:Q1 | 8.27 | 10.33 |
| 1975:Q2 | 8.87 | 8.61 |
| 1975:Q3 | 8.47 | 7.73 |
| 1975:Q4 | 8.30 | 6.83 |
| 1976:Q1 | 7.73 | 6.01 |
| 1976:Q2 | 7.57 | 5.60 |
| 1976:Q3 | 7.73 | 5.23 |
| 1976:Q4 | 7.77 | 5.13 |
| 1977:Q1 | 7.50 | 5.86 |
| 1977:Q2 | 7.13 | 6.78 |
| 1977:Q3 | 6.90 | 6.76 |
| 1977:Q4 | 6.67 | 6.60 |
| 1978:Q1 | 6.33 | 6.43 |
| 1978:Q2 | 6.00 | 6.78 |
| 1978:Q3 | 6.03 | 7.05 |
| 1978:Q4 | 5.90 | 7.54 |
| 1979:Q1 | 5.87 | 7.80 |
| 1979:Q2 | 5.70 | 8.52 |
| 1979:Q3 | 5.87 | 9.29 |
| 1979:Q4 | 5.97 | 9.86 |
| 1980:Q1 | 6.30 | 11.07 |
| 1980:Q2 | 7.33 | 10.76 |
| 1980:Q3 | 7.67 | 10.60 |
| 1980:Q4 | 7.40 | 10.66 |
| 1981:Q1 | 7.43 | 10.22 |
| 1981:Q2 | 7.40 | 9.40 |
| 1981:Q3 | 7.40 | 8.66 |
| 1981:Q4 | 8.23 | 7.66 |
| 1982:Q1 | 8.83 | 6.27 |
| 1982:Q2 | 9.43 | 5.52 |
| 1982:Q3 | 9.90 | 5.45 |
| 1982:Q4 | 10.67 | 5.01 |
| 1983:Q1 | 10.37 | 4.55 |
| 1983:Q2 | 10.13 | 4.50 |
| 1983:Q3 | 9.37 | 4.22 |
| 1983:Q4 | 8.53 | 3.77 |
| 1984:Q1 | 7.87 | 4.03 |
| 1984:Q2 | 7.43 | 4.08 |
| 1984:Q3 | 7.43 | 3.53 |
| 1984:Q4 | 7.30 | 3.48 |
| 1985:Q1 | 7.23 | 3.58 |
| 1985:Q2 | 7.30 | 3.42 |
| 1985:Q3 | 7.20 | 3.43 |
| 1985:Q4 | 7.03 | 3.52 |
| 1986:Q1 | 7.03 | 3.04 |
| 1986:Q2 | 7.17 | 2.10 |
| 1986:Q3 | 6.97 | 1.84 |
| 1986:Q4 | 6.83 | 1.74 |
| 1987:Q1 | 6.60 | 1.98 |
| 1987:Q2 | 6.27 | 3.07 |
| 1987:Q3 | 6.00 | 3.50 |
| 1987:Q4 | 5.83 | 3.77 |
| 1988:Q1 | 5.70 | 3.61 |
| 1988:Q2 | 5.47 | 3.76 |
| 1988:Q3 | 5.47 | 4.05 |
| 1988:Q4 | 5.33 | 4.20 |
| 1989:Q1 | 5.20 | 4.57 |
| 1989:Q2 | 5.23 | 4.82 |
| 1989:Q3 | 5.23 | 4.16 |
| 1989:Q4 | 5.37 | 3.93 |
| 1990:Q1 | 5.30 | 4.24 |
| 1990:Q2 | 5.33 | 3.78 |
| 1990:Q3 | 5.70 | 4.49 |
| 1990:Q4 | 6.13 | 5.04 |
| 1991:Q1 | 6.60 | 4.09 |
| 1991:Q2 | 6.83 | 3.71 |
| 1991:Q3 | 6.87 | 3.11 |
| 1991:Q4 | 7.10 | 2.50 |
| 1992:Q1 | 7.37 | 2.60 |
| 1992:Q2 | 7.60 | 2.72 |
| 1992:Q3 | 7.63 | 2.68 |
| 1992:Q4 | 7.37 | 2.65 |
| 1993:Q1 | 7.13 | 2.62 |
| 1993:Q2 | 7.07 | 2.63 |
| 1993:Q3 | 6.80 | 2.42 |
| 1993:Q4 | 6.63 | 2.30 |
| 1994:Q1 | 6.57 | 2.06 |
| 1994:Q2 | 6.20 | 1.94 |
| 1994:Q3 | 6.00 | 2.23 |
| 1994:Q4 | 5.63 | 2.12 |
| 1995:Q1 | 5.47 | 2.25 |
| 1995:Q2 | 5.67 | 2.28 |
| 1995:Q3 | 5.67 | 1.96 |
| 1995:Q4 | 5.57 | 1.93 |
| 1996:Q1 | 5.53 | 2.00 |
| 1996:Q2 | 5.50 | 2.09 |
| 1996:Q3 | 5.27 | 2.11 |
| 1996:Q4 | 5.33 | 2.35 |
| 1997:Q1 | 5.23 | 2.24 |
| 1997:Q2 | 5.00 | 1.81 |
| 1997:Q3 | 4.87 | 1.65 |
| 1997:Q4 | 4.67 | 1.28 |
| 1998:Q1 | 4.63 | 0.84 |
| 1998:Q2 | 4.40 | 0.77 |
| 1998:Q3 | 4.53 | 0.81 |
| 1998:Q4 | 4.43 | 0.76 |
| 1999:Q1 | 4.30 | 1.02 |
| 1999:Q2 | 4.27 | 1.39 |
| 1999:Q3 | 4.23 | 1.61 |
| 1999:Q4 | 4.07 | 1.94 |
| 2000:Q1 | 4.03 | 2.52 |
| 2000:Q2 | 3.93 | 2.42 |
| 2000:Q3 | 4.00 | 2.51 |
| 2000:Q4 | 3.90 | 2.48 |
| 2001:Q1 | 4.23 | 2.32 |
| 2001:Q2 | 4.40 | 2.34 |
| 2001:Q3 | 4.83 | 1.77 |
| 2001:Q4 | 5.50 | 1.27 |
| 2002:Q1 | 5.70 | 0.78 |
| 2002:Q2 | 5.83 | 1.07 |
| 2002:Q3 | 5.73 | 1.51 |
| 2002:Q4 | 5.87 | 1.91 |
| 2003:Q1 | 5.87 | 2.44 |
| 2003:Q2 | 6.13 | 1.69 |
| 2003:Q3 | 6.13 | 1.82 |
| 2003:Q4 | 5.83 | 1.82 |
| 2004:Q1 | 5.70 | 1.94 |
| 2004:Q2 | 5.60 | 2.62 |
| 2004:Q3 | 5.43 | 2.50 |
| 2004:Q4 | 5.43 | 2.91 |
| 2005:Q1 | 5.30 | 2.64 |
| 2005:Q2 | 5.10 | 2.55 |
| 2005:Q3 | 4.97 | 3.13 |
| 2005:Q4 | 4.97 | 3.05 |
| 2006:Q1 | 4.73 | 2.99 |
| 2006:Q2 | 4.63 | 3.20 |
| 2006:Q3 | 4.63 | 2.84 |
| 2006:Q4 | 4.43 | 1.87 |
| 2007:Q1 | 4.50 | 2.32 |
| 2007:Q2 | 4.50 | 2.33 |
| 2007:Q3 | 4.67 | 2.16 |
| 2007:Q4 | 4.80 | 3.34 |
| 2008:Q1 | 5.00 | 3.23 |
| 2008:Q2 | 5.33 | 3.46 |
| 2008:Q3 | 6.00 | 3.94 |
| 2008:Q4 | 6.87 | 1.39 |
| 2009:Q1 | 8.27 | -0.06 |
| 2009:Q2 | 9.30 | -0.63 |
| 2009:Q3 | 9.63 | -0.97 |
| 2009:Q4 | 9.93 | 1.31 |
| 2010:Q1 | 9.83 | 2.27 |
| 2010:Q2 | 9.63 | 1.93 |
| 2010:Q3 | 9.47 | 1.41 |
| 2010:Q4 | 9.50 | 1.24 |
| 2011:Q1 | 9.03 | 1.78 |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.07 | 2.66 |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.00 | 2.98 |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.63 | 2.71 |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.27 | 2.52 |
| 2012:Q2 | 8.20 | 1.76 |
| 2012:Q3 | 8.03 | 1.56 |
| 2012:Q4 | 7.80 | 1.79 |
| 2013:Q1 | 7.73 | 1.45 |
| 2013:Q2 | 7.53 | 1.28 |
| 2013:Q3 | 7.23 | 1.40 |
| 2013:Q4 | 6.93 | 1.25 |
| 2014:Q1 | 6.67 | 1.37 |
| 2014:Q2 | 6.23 | 1.79 |
| 2014:Q3 | 6.10 | 1.68 |
| 2014:Q4 | 5.70 | 1.17 |
| 2015:Q1 | 5.57 | 0.24 |
| 2015:Q2 | 5.40 | 0.23 |
| 2015:Q3 | 5.10 | 0.23 |
| 2015:Q4 | 5.00 | 0.29 |
| 2016:Q1 | 4.93 | 0.80 |
| 2016:Q2 | 4.87 | 0.90 |
| 2016:Q3 | 4.93 | 1.03 |
| 2016:Q4 | 4.73 | 1.57 |
| 2017:Q1 | 4.67 | 2.03 |
| 2017:Q2 | 4.33 | 1.63 |
| 2017:Q3 | 4.30 | 1.60 |
| 2017:Q4 | 4.10 | 1.79 |
| 2018:Q1 | 4.10 | 1.89 |
| 2018:Q2 | 3.90 | 2.17 |
| 2018:Q3 | 3.79 | 2.12 |
| 2018:Q4 | 3.67 | 2.04 |
| 2019:Q1 | 3.59 | 1.97 |
| 2019:Q2 | 3.51 | 1.95 |
| 2019:Q3 | 3.45 | 2.05 |
| 2019:Q4 | 3.45 | 2.07 |
| 2020:Q1 | 3.45 | 2.08 |
| 2020:Q2 | 3.53 | 2.11 |
| 2020:Q3 | 3.66 | 2.10 |
| 2020:Q4 | 3.72 | 2.10 |
Note: Inflation is the four-quarter change in the personal consumption expenditures price index, with data through 2018:Q2 and projections through 2020:Q4. The projections are an average of projections from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). FOMC projections are from September 2018. SPF and CBO projections are from August 2018. All projections run through 2020:Q4. The SPF value for the unemployment rate in 2020 is the midpoint of the annual forecast for 2020 and 2021.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; Survey of Professional Forecasters (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Real-Time Data Center); Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook).
Figure 2. Unemployment Rate and Core Inflation Rate
1960:Q1-1985:Q1, Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Unemployment rate | Core inflation rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1960:Q1 | 5.13 | 2.11 |
| 1960:Q2 | 5.23 | 1.95 |
| 1960:Q3 | 5.53 | 1.67 |
| 1960:Q4 | 6.27 | 1.42 |
| 1961:Q1 | 6.80 | 1.28 |
| 1961:Q2 | 7.00 | 1.22 |
| 1961:Q3 | 6.77 | 1.27 |
| 1961:Q4 | 6.20 | 1.18 |
| 1962:Q1 | 5.63 | 1.38 |
| 1962:Q2 | 5.53 | 1.44 |
| 1962:Q3 | 5.57 | 1.33 |
| 1962:Q4 | 5.53 | 1.28 |
| 1963:Q1 | 5.77 | 1.24 |
| 1963:Q2 | 5.73 | 1.23 |
| 1963:Q3 | 5.50 | 1.29 |
| 1963:Q4 | 5.57 | 1.59 |
| 1964:Q1 | 5.47 | 1.68 |
| 1964:Q2 | 5.20 | 1.60 |
| 1964:Q3 | 5.00 | 1.49 |
| 1964:Q4 | 4.97 | 1.26 |
| 1965:Q1 | 4.90 | 1.21 |
| 1965:Q2 | 4.67 | 1.23 |
| 1965:Q3 | 4.37 | 1.26 |
| 1965:Q4 | 4.10 | 1.34 |
| 1966:Q1 | 3.87 | 1.46 |
| 1966:Q2 | 3.83 | 1.97 |
| 1966:Q3 | 3.77 | 2.49 |
| 1966:Q4 | 3.70 | 3.04 |
| 1967:Q1 | 3.83 | 3.09 |
| 1967:Q2 | 3.83 | 2.94 |
| 1967:Q3 | 3.80 | 3.03 |
| 1967:Q4 | 3.90 | 3.18 |
| 1968:Q1 | 3.73 | 3.78 |
| 1968:Q2 | 3.57 | 4.29 |
| 1968:Q3 | 3.53 | 4.50 |
| 1968:Q4 | 3.40 | 4.66 |
| 1969:Q1 | 3.40 | 4.62 |
| 1969:Q2 | 3.43 | 4.65 |
| 1969:Q3 | 3.57 | 4.69 |
| 1969:Q4 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 1970:Q1 | 4.17 | 4.70 |
| 1970:Q2 | 4.77 | 4.63 |
| 1970:Q3 | 5.17 | 4.58 |
| 1970:Q4 | 5.83 | 4.82 |
| 1971:Q1 | 5.93 | 5.00 |
| 1971:Q2 | 5.90 | 5.02 |
| 1971:Q3 | 6.03 | 4.84 |
| 1971:Q4 | 5.93 | 3.98 |
| 1972:Q1 | 5.77 | 3.66 |
| 1972:Q2 | 5.70 | 3.18 |
| 1972:Q3 | 5.57 | 2.99 |
| 1972:Q4 | 5.37 | 3.05 |
| 1973:Q1 | 4.93 | 2.78 |
| 1973:Q2 | 4.93 | 3.48 |
| 1973:Q3 | 4.80 | 4.07 |
| 1973:Q4 | 4.77 | 4.86 |
| 1974:Q1 | 5.13 | 5.93 |
| 1974:Q2 | 5.20 | 7.10 |
| 1974:Q3 | 5.63 | 8.72 |
| 1974:Q4 | 6.60 | 9.84 |
| 1975:Q1 | 8.27 | 10.10 |
| 1975:Q2 | 8.87 | 9.07 |
| 1975:Q3 | 8.47 | 7.63 |
| 1975:Q4 | 8.30 | 6.77 |
| 1976:Q1 | 7.73 | 6.32 |
| 1976:Q2 | 7.57 | 5.98 |
| 1976:Q3 | 7.73 | 6.04 |
| 1976:Q4 | 7.77 | 5.98 |
| 1977:Q1 | 7.50 | 6.15 |
| 1977:Q2 | 7.13 | 6.50 |
| 1977:Q3 | 6.90 | 6.60 |
| 1977:Q4 | 6.67 | 6.48 |
| 1978:Q1 | 6.33 | 6.35 |
| 1978:Q2 | 6.00 | 6.56 |
| 1978:Q3 | 6.03 | 6.61 |
| 1978:Q4 | 5.90 | 6.97 |
| 1979:Q1 | 5.87 | 6.77 |
| 1979:Q2 | 5.70 | 7.26 |
| 1979:Q3 | 5.87 | 7.40 |
| 1979:Q4 | 5.97 | 7.71 |
| 1980:Q1 | 6.30 | 8.85 |
| 1980:Q2 | 7.33 | 8.90 |
| 1980:Q3 | 7.67 | 9.30 |
| 1980:Q4 | 7.40 | 9.68 |
| 1981:Q1 | 7.43 | 9.43 |
| 1981:Q2 | 7.40 | 9.06 |
| 1981:Q3 | 7.40 | 8.65 |
| 1981:Q4 | 8.23 | 7.95 |
| 1982:Q1 | 8.83 | 7.16 |
| 1982:Q2 | 9.43 | 6.59 |
| 1982:Q3 | 9.90 | 6.34 |
| 1982:Q4 | 10.67 | 5.94 |
| 1983:Q1 | 10.37 | 5.78 |
| 1983:Q2 | 10.13 | 5.17 |
| 1983:Q3 | 9.37 | 5.08 |
| 1983:Q4 | 8.53 | 4.47 |
| 1984:Q1 | 7.87 | 4.16 |
| 1984:Q2 | 7.43 | 4.58 |
| 1984:Q3 | 7.43 | 3.98 |
| 1984:Q4 | 7.30 | 3.89 |
| 1985:Q1 | 7.23 | 4.25 |
Note: Core inflation is the four-quarter percent change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) less food and energy.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; Survey of Professional Forecasters (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Real-Time Data Center); Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook).
1995:Q1-2020:Q4, Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Unemployment rate | Core inflation rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1995:Q1 | 5.47 | 2.28 |
| 1995:Q2 | 5.67 | 2.20 |
| 1995:Q3 | 5.67 | 2.12 |
| 1995:Q4 | 5.57 | 2.11 |
| 1996:Q1 | 5.53 | 1.98 |
| 1996:Q2 | 5.50 | 1.86 |
| 1996:Q3 | 5.27 | 1.84 |
| 1996:Q4 | 5.33 | 1.91 |
| 1997:Q1 | 5.23 | 1.91 |
| 1997:Q2 | 5.00 | 1.95 |
| 1997:Q3 | 4.87 | 1.73 |
| 1997:Q4 | 4.67 | 1.47 |
| 1998:Q1 | 4.63 | 1.37 |
| 1998:Q2 | 4.40 | 1.16 |
| 1998:Q3 | 4.53 | 1.28 |
| 1998:Q4 | 4.43 | 1.28 |
| 1999:Q1 | 4.30 | 1.31 |
| 1999:Q2 | 4.27 | 1.33 |
| 1999:Q3 | 4.23 | 1.32 |
| 1999:Q4 | 4.07 | 1.45 |
| 2000:Q1 | 4.03 | 1.68 |
| 2000:Q2 | 3.93 | 1.67 |
| 2000:Q3 | 4.00 | 1.78 |
| 2000:Q4 | 3.90 | 1.81 |
| 2001:Q1 | 4.23 | 1.84 |
| 2001:Q2 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 2001:Q3 | 4.83 | 1.71 |
| 2001:Q4 | 5.50 | 1.74 |
| 2002:Q1 | 5.70 | 1.45 |
| 2002:Q2 | 5.83 | 1.65 |
| 2002:Q3 | 5.73 | 1.88 |
| 2002:Q4 | 5.87 | 1.73 |
| 2003:Q1 | 5.87 | 1.67 |
| 2003:Q2 | 6.13 | 1.39 |
| 2003:Q3 | 6.13 | 1.30 |
| 2003:Q4 | 5.83 | 1.36 |
| 2004:Q1 | 5.70 | 1.74 |
| 2004:Q2 | 5.60 | 2.04 |
| 2004:Q3 | 5.43 | 2.00 |
| 2004:Q4 | 5.43 | 2.13 |
| 2005:Q1 | 5.30 | 2.21 |
| 2005:Q2 | 5.10 | 2.09 |
| 2005:Q3 | 4.97 | 2.09 |
| 2005:Q4 | 4.97 | 2.20 |
| 2006:Q1 | 4.73 | 2.06 |
| 2006:Q2 | 4.63 | 2.32 |
| 2006:Q3 | 4.63 | 2.49 |
| 2006:Q4 | 4.43 | 2.26 |
| 2007:Q1 | 4.50 | 2.43 |
| 2007:Q2 | 4.50 | 2.08 |
| 2007:Q3 | 4.67 | 2.03 |
| 2007:Q4 | 4.80 | 2.25 |
| 2008:Q1 | 5.00 | 2.08 |
| 2008:Q2 | 5.33 | 2.19 |
| 2008:Q3 | 6.00 | 2.17 |
| 2008:Q4 | 6.87 | 1.56 |
| 2009:Q1 | 8.27 | 1.09 |
| 2009:Q2 | 9.30 | 1.06 |
| 2009:Q3 | 9.63 | 0.95 |
| 2009:Q4 | 9.93 | 1.53 |
| 2010:Q1 | 9.83 | 1.73 |
| 2010:Q2 | 9.63 | 1.50 |
| 2010:Q3 | 9.47 | 1.28 |
| 2010:Q4 | 9.50 | 0.92 |
| 2011:Q1 | 9.03 | 1.11 |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.07 | 1.47 |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.00 | 1.83 |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.63 | 1.93 |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.27 | 2.11 |
| 2012:Q2 | 8.20 | 1.94 |
| 2012:Q3 | 8.03 | 1.73 |
| 2012:Q4 | 7.80 | 1.81 |
| 2013:Q1 | 7.73 | 1.54 |
| 2013:Q2 | 7.53 | 1.44 |
| 2013:Q3 | 7.23 | 1.54 |
| 2013:Q4 | 6.93 | 1.58 |
| 2014:Q1 | 6.67 | 1.52 |
| 2014:Q2 | 6.23 | 1.71 |
| 2014:Q3 | 6.10 | 1.72 |
| 2014:Q4 | 5.70 | 1.52 |
| 2015:Q1 | 5.57 | 1.36 |
| 2015:Q2 | 5.40 | 1.30 |
| 2015:Q3 | 5.10 | 1.26 |
| 2015:Q4 | 5.00 | 1.24 |
| 2016:Q1 | 4.93 | 1.50 |
| 2016:Q2 | 4.87 | 1.58 |
| 2016:Q3 | 4.93 | 1.73 |
| 2016:Q4 | 4.73 | 1.83 |
| 2017:Q1 | 4.67 | 1.81 |
| 2017:Q2 | 4.33 | 1.62 |
| 2017:Q3 | 4.30 | 1.46 |
| 2017:Q4 | 4.10 | 1.61 |
| 2018:Q1 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| 2018:Q2 | 3.90 | 1.91 |
| 2018:Q3 | 3.79 | 1.96 |
| 2018:Q4 | 3.67 | 2.02 |
| 2019:Q1 | 3.59 | 2.08 |
| 2019:Q2 | 3.51 | 2.11 |
| 2019:Q3 | 3.45 | 2.14 |
| 2019:Q4 | 3.45 | 2.13 |
| 2020:Q1 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| 2020:Q2 | 3.53 | 2.18 |
| 2020:Q3 | 3.66 | 2.17 |
| 2020:Q4 | 3.72 | 2.14 |
Note: Core inflation is the four-quarter percent change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) less food and energy, with data through 2018:Q2 and projections through 2020:Q4. The projections are an average of projections from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). FOMC projections are from September 2018, and SPF and CBO projections are from August 2018. Details about the forecasts are as in the note to figure 1.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; Survey of Professional Forecasters (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Real-Time Data Center); Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook).
Figure 3: Labor Market Slack and Core Inflation Rate
1960:Q1-1985:Q1, Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Labor market slack | Core inflation rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1960:Q1 | -0.33 | 2.11 |
| 1960:Q2 | -0.23 | 1.95 |
| 1960:Q3 | 0.06 | 1.67 |
| 1960:Q4 | 0.79 | 1.42 |
| 1961:Q1 | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| 1961:Q2 | 1.51 | 1.22 |
| 1961:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| 1961:Q4 | 0.69 | 1.18 |
| 1962:Q1 | 0.12 | 1.38 |
| 1962:Q2 | 0.01 | 1.44 |
| 1962:Q3 | 0.04 | 1.33 |
| 1962:Q4 | -0.01 | 1.28 |
| 1963:Q1 | 0.22 | 1.24 |
| 1963:Q2 | 0.17 | 1.23 |
| 1963:Q3 | -0.07 | 1.29 |
| 1963:Q4 | -0.01 | 1.59 |
| 1964:Q1 | -0.13 | 1.68 |
| 1964:Q2 | -0.41 | 1.60 |
| 1964:Q3 | -0.62 | 1.49 |
| 1964:Q4 | -0.66 | 1.26 |
| 1965:Q1 | -0.75 | 1.21 |
| 1965:Q2 | -0.99 | 1.23 |
| 1965:Q3 | -1.30 | 1.26 |
| 1965:Q4 | -1.59 | 1.34 |
| 1966:Q1 | -1.83 | 1.46 |
| 1966:Q2 | -1.88 | 1.97 |
| 1966:Q3 | -1.95 | 2.49 |
| 1966:Q4 | -2.03 | 3.04 |
| 1967:Q1 | -1.92 | 3.09 |
| 1967:Q2 | -1.93 | 2.94 |
| 1967:Q3 | -1.97 | 3.03 |
| 1967:Q4 | -1.88 | 3.18 |
| 1968:Q1 | -2.06 | 3.78 |
| 1968:Q2 | -2.23 | 4.29 |
| 1968:Q3 | -2.29 | 4.50 |
| 1968:Q4 | -2.43 | 4.66 |
| 1969:Q1 | -2.44 | 4.62 |
| 1969:Q2 | -2.42 | 4.65 |
| 1969:Q3 | -2.29 | 4.69 |
| 1969:Q4 | -2.31 | 4.70 |
| 1970:Q1 | -1.72 | 4.70 |
| 1970:Q2 | -1.13 | 4.63 |
| 1970:Q3 | -0.75 | 4.58 |
| 1970:Q4 | -0.10 | 4.82 |
| 1971:Q1 | -0.02 | 5.00 |
| 1971:Q2 | -0.06 | 5.02 |
| 1971:Q3 | 0.05 | 4.84 |
| 1971:Q4 | -0.06 | 3.98 |
| 1972:Q1 | -0.24 | 3.66 |
| 1972:Q2 | -0.33 | 3.18 |
| 1972:Q3 | -0.47 | 2.99 |
| 1972:Q4 | -0.69 | 3.05 |
| 1973:Q1 | -1.14 | 2.78 |
| 1973:Q2 | -1.16 | 3.48 |
| 1973:Q3 | -1.30 | 4.07 |
| 1973:Q4 | -1.34 | 4.86 |
| 1974:Q1 | -1.00 | 5.93 |
| 1974:Q2 | -0.94 | 7.10 |
| 1974:Q3 | -0.52 | 8.72 |
| 1974:Q4 | 0.44 | 9.84 |
| 1975:Q1 | 2.10 | 10.10 |
| 1975:Q2 | 2.69 | 9.07 |
| 1975:Q3 | 2.28 | 7.63 |
| 1975:Q4 | 2.10 | 6.77 |
| 1976:Q1 | 1.53 | 6.32 |
| 1976:Q2 | 1.36 | 5.98 |
| 1976:Q3 | 1.51 | 6.04 |
| 1976:Q4 | 1.55 | 5.98 |
| 1977:Q1 | 1.27 | 6.15 |
| 1977:Q2 | 0.90 | 6.50 |
| 1977:Q3 | 0.66 | 6.60 |
| 1977:Q4 | 0.43 | 6.48 |
| 1978:Q1 | 0.09 | 6.35 |
| 1978:Q2 | -0.24 | 6.56 |
| 1978:Q3 | -0.21 | 6.61 |
| 1978:Q4 | -0.34 | 6.97 |
| 1979:Q1 | -0.37 | 6.77 |
| 1979:Q2 | -0.53 | 7.26 |
| 1979:Q3 | -0.36 | 7.40 |
| 1979:Q4 | -0.25 | 7.71 |
| 1980:Q1 | 0.08 | 8.85 |
| 1980:Q2 | 1.12 | 8.90 |
| 1980:Q3 | 1.47 | 9.30 |
| 1980:Q4 | 1.20 | 9.68 |
| 1981:Q1 | 1.24 | 9.43 |
| 1981:Q2 | 1.22 | 9.06 |
| 1981:Q3 | 1.23 | 8.65 |
| 1981:Q4 | 2.07 | 7.95 |
| 1982:Q1 | 2.68 | 7.16 |
| 1982:Q2 | 3.29 | 6.59 |
| 1982:Q3 | 3.77 | 6.34 |
| 1982:Q4 | 4.55 | 5.94 |
| 1983:Q1 | 4.26 | 5.78 |
| 1983:Q2 | 4.03 | 5.17 |
| 1983:Q3 | 3.28 | 5.08 |
| 1983:Q4 | 2.44 | 4.47 |
| 1984:Q1 | 1.79 | 4.16 |
| 1984:Q2 | 1.36 | 4.58 |
| 1984:Q3 | 1.37 | 3.98 |
| 1984:Q4 | 1.25 | 3.89 |
| 1985:Q1 | 1.19 | 4.25 |
Note: Labor market slack is the unemployment rate minus the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate of the natural rate of unemployment as of August 2018. The CBO provides data for the historical period. Core inflation is the four-quarter percent change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) less food and energy. The shaded areas indicate periods when the slack is negative--that is, when labor markets are tight.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook); Bureau of Labor Statistics (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; Survey of Professional Forecasters (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Real-Time Data Center).
1995:Q1-2020:Q4, Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Labor market slack | Core inflation rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1995:Q1 | 0.05 | 2.28 |
| 1995:Q2 | 0.26 | 2.20 |
| 1995:Q3 | 0.27 | 2.12 |
| 1995:Q4 | 0.18 | 2.11 |
| 1996:Q1 | 0.15 | 1.98 |
| 1996:Q2 | 0.13 | 1.86 |
| 1996:Q3 | -0.09 | 1.84 |
| 1996:Q4 | -0.02 | 1.91 |
| 1997:Q1 | -0.11 | 1.91 |
| 1997:Q2 | -0.33 | 1.95 |
| 1997:Q3 | -0.45 | 1.73 |
| 1997:Q4 | -0.64 | 1.47 |
| 1998:Q1 | -0.67 | 1.37 |
| 1998:Q2 | -0.89 | 1.16 |
| 1998:Q3 | -0.76 | 1.28 |
| 1998:Q4 | -0.85 | 1.28 |
| 1999:Q1 | -0.97 | 1.31 |
| 1999:Q2 | -0.99 | 1.33 |
| 1999:Q3 | -1.02 | 1.32 |
| 1999:Q4 | -1.17 | 1.45 |
| 2000:Q1 | -1.19 | 1.68 |
| 2000:Q2 | -1.28 | 1.67 |
| 2000:Q3 | -1.20 | 1.78 |
| 2000:Q4 | -1.29 | 1.81 |
| 2001:Q1 | -0.95 | 1.84 |
| 2001:Q2 | -0.77 | 1.90 |
| 2001:Q3 | -0.33 | 1.71 |
| 2001:Q4 | 0.35 | 1.74 |
| 2002:Q1 | 0.56 | 1.45 |
| 2002:Q2 | 0.70 | 1.65 |
| 2002:Q3 | 0.61 | 1.88 |
| 2002:Q4 | 0.76 | 1.73 |
| 2003:Q1 | 0.77 | 1.67 |
| 2003:Q2 | 1.04 | 1.39 |
| 2003:Q3 | 1.05 | 1.30 |
| 2003:Q4 | 0.76 | 1.36 |
| 2004:Q1 | 0.64 | 1.74 |
| 2004:Q2 | 0.55 | 2.04 |
| 2004:Q3 | 0.39 | 2.00 |
| 2004:Q4 | 0.40 | 2.13 |
| 2005:Q1 | 0.28 | 2.21 |
| 2005:Q2 | 0.09 | 2.09 |
| 2005:Q3 | -0.03 | 2.09 |
| 2005:Q4 | -0.03 | 2.20 |
| 2006:Q1 | -0.26 | 2.06 |
| 2006:Q2 | -0.36 | 2.32 |
| 2006:Q3 | -0.35 | 2.49 |
| 2006:Q4 | -0.54 | 2.26 |
| 2007:Q1 | -0.45 | 2.43 |
| 2007:Q2 | -0.43 | 2.08 |
| 2007:Q3 | -0.25 | 2.03 |
| 2007:Q4 | -0.10 | 2.25 |
| 2008:Q1 | 0.11 | 2.08 |
| 2008:Q2 | 0.45 | 2.19 |
| 2008:Q3 | 1.13 | 2.17 |
| 2008:Q4 | 1.99 | 1.56 |
| 2009:Q1 | 3.37 | 1.09 |
| 2009:Q2 | 4.38 | 1.06 |
| 2009:Q3 | 4.68 | 0.95 |
| 2009:Q4 | 4.95 | 1.53 |
| 2010:Q1 | 4.82 | 1.73 |
| 2010:Q2 | 4.60 | 1.50 |
| 2010:Q3 | 4.42 | 1.28 |
| 2010:Q4 | 4.43 | 0.92 |
| 2011:Q1 | 3.95 | 1.11 |
| 2011:Q2 | 3.99 | 1.47 |
| 2011:Q3 | 3.92 | 1.83 |
| 2011:Q4 | 3.55 | 1.93 |
| 2012:Q1 | 3.20 | 2.11 |
| 2012:Q2 | 3.15 | 1.94 |
| 2012:Q3 | 3.01 | 1.73 |
| 2012:Q4 | 2.81 | 1.81 |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.76 | 1.54 |
| 2013:Q2 | 2.59 | 1.44 |
| 2013:Q3 | 2.32 | 1.54 |
| 2013:Q4 | 2.04 | 1.58 |
| 2014:Q1 | 1.81 | 1.52 |
| 2014:Q2 | 1.40 | 1.71 |
| 2014:Q3 | 1.30 | 1.72 |
| 2014:Q4 | 0.94 | 1.52 |
| 2015:Q1 | 0.85 | 1.36 |
| 2015:Q2 | 0.71 | 1.30 |
| 2015:Q3 | 0.44 | 1.26 |
| 2015:Q4 | 0.36 | 1.24 |
| 2016:Q1 | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| 2016:Q2 | 0.25 | 1.58 |
| 2016:Q3 | 0.31 | 1.73 |
| 2016:Q4 | 0.11 | 1.83 |
| 2017:Q1 | 0.05 | 1.81 |
| 2017:Q2 | -0.30 | 1.62 |
| 2017:Q3 | -0.32 | 1.46 |
| 2017:Q4 | -0.52 | 1.61 |
| 2018:Q1 | -0.52 | 1.75 |
| 2018:Q2 | -0.72 | 1.91 |
| 2018:Q3 | 3.79 | 1.96 |
| 2018:Q4 | 3.67 | 2.02 |
| 2019:Q1 | 3.59 | 2.08 |
| 2019:Q2 | 3.51 | 2.11 |
| 2019:Q3 | 3.45 | 2.14 |
| 2019:Q4 | 3.45 | 2.13 |
| 2020:Q1 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| 2020:Q2 | 3.53 | 2.18 |
| 2020:Q3 | 3.66 | 2.17 |
| 2020:Q4 | 3.72 | 2.14 |
Note: Labor market slack is the unemployment rate minus the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate of the natural rate of unemployment as of August 2018. The CBO provides data for both the historical and projection periods. Core inflation is the four-quarter percent change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) less food and energy. The shaded areas indicate periods when the slack is negative--that is, when labor markets are tight. Projections are as in figure 2.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook); Bureau of Labor Statistics (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; Survey of Professional Forecasters (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Real-Time Data Center).
Figure 4: Simple Phillips Curve Relation
$$$$ Inflation(t)=-B Slack(t)+C Inflation(t-1)+Other(t)$$$$
where Inflation = core inflation;
Slack = unemployment minus the natural rate;
Other = unspecified factors including a regression error and constant term;
$$ t, t-1$$ = years of the observations.
Figure 5. Evolution of Estimates of the Slope and Persistence Parameters of the Phillips Curve
Slope of the Phillips Curve
Annual
| Period | Slope of the Phillips Curve | Slope of the Phillips Curve--Lower Bound | Slope of the Phillips Curve--Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1978 | -0.515 | -0.821 | -0.209 |
| 1979 | -0.532 | -0.827 | -0.238 |
| 1980 | -0.485 | -0.792 | -0.178 |
| 1981 | -0.522 | -0.881 | -0.164 |
| 1982 | -0.528 | -0.847 | -0.209 |
| 1983 | -0.502 | -0.782 | -0.222 |
| 1984 | -0.462 | -0.733 | -0.192 |
| 1985 | -0.411 | -0.667 | -0.156 |
| 1986 | -0.441 | -0.689 | -0.193 |
| 1987 | -0.486 | -0.728 | -0.243 |
| 1988 | -0.500 | -0.754 | -0.246 |
| 1989 | -0.628 | -0.910 | -0.346 |
| 1990 | -0.681 | -0.968 | -0.393 |
| 1991 | -0.732 | -1.009 | -0.456 |
| 1992 | -0.788 | -1.034 | -0.543 |
| 1993 | -0.803 | -1.056 | -0.550 |
| 1994 | -0.564 | -0.745 | -0.384 |
| 1995 | -0.525 | -0.683 | -0.367 |
| 1996 | -0.513 | -0.670 | -0.355 |
| 1997 | -0.476 | -0.634 | -0.317 |
| 1998 | -0.439 | -0.605 | -0.273 |
| 1999 | -0.388 | -0.567 | -0.208 |
| 2000 | -0.202 | -0.314 | -0.090 |
| 2001 | -0.256 | -0.398 | -0.115 |
| 2002 | -0.251 | -0.380 | -0.122 |
| 2003 | -0.210 | -0.339 | -0.081 |
| 2004 | -0.149 | -0.290 | -0.008 |
| 2005 | -0.174 | -0.312 | -0.036 |
| 2006 | -0.162 | -0.297 | -0.026 |
| 2007 | -0.159 | -0.290 | -0.028 |
| 2008 | -0.116 | -0.222 | -0.010 |
| 2009 | -0.067 | -0.135 | 0.001 |
| 2010 | -0.076 | -0.120 | -0.033 |
| 2011 | -0.022 | -0.070 | 0.027 |
| 2012 | -0.030 | -0.077 | 0.017 |
| 2013 | -0.044 | -0.090 | 0.002 |
| 2014 | -0.047 | -0.093 | -0.001 |
| 2015 | -0.042 | -0.089 | 0.005 |
| 2016 | -0.047 | -0.094 | 0.000 |
| 2017 | -0.050 | -0.096 | -0.004 |
Note: Panels show estimates of coefficients $$ B $$ and $$ C $$ from the equation $$$$ Inflation(t)=-B Slack(t)+C Inflation(t-1)+Other(t)$$$$, where Inflation is core inflation and Slack is the unemployment gap, both as in figure 3. All data are annual, and each point is the estimate for a rolling 20-year sample ended at the date shown on the horizontal axis. Shaded areas represent 70 percent confidence intervals. The data are through 2017.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Christopher Erceg, James Hebden, Michael Kiley, David López-Salido, and Robert Tetlow (2018), "Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-059 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August), http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.059.
Persistence of Inflation
Annualy
| Period | Persistance of Inflation | Persistance of Inflation--Lower Bound | Persistance of Inflation--Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1978 | 0.934 | 0.762 | 1.106 |
| 1979 | 0.956 | 0.797 | 1.114 |
| 1980 | 1.016 | 0.854 | 1.177 |
| 1981 | 0.988 | 0.809 | 1.166 |
| 1982 | 0.985 | 0.791 | 1.180 |
| 1983 | 0.979 | 0.775 | 1.183 |
| 1984 | 0.928 | 0.717 | 1.140 |
| 1985 | 0.848 | 0.634 | 1.063 |
| 1986 | 0.881 | 0.661 | 1.101 |
| 1987 | 0.862 | 0.656 | 1.068 |
| 1988 | 0.853 | 0.651 | 1.055 |
| 1989 | 0.904 | 0.701 | 1.106 |
| 1990 | 0.917 | 0.720 | 1.114 |
| 1991 | 0.932 | 0.746 | 1.119 |
| 1992 | 0.907 | 0.745 | 1.069 |
| 1993 | 0.909 | 0.756 | 1.063 |
| 1994 | 0.912 | 0.812 | 1.012 |
| 1995 | 1.017 | 0.925 | 1.110 |
| 1996 | 1.039 | 0.947 | 1.130 |
| 1997 | 1.048 | 0.956 | 1.140 |
| 1998 | 1.054 | 0.957 | 1.152 |
| 1999 | 1.032 | 0.922 | 1.142 |
| 2000 | 0.843 | 0.767 | 0.919 |
| 2001 | 0.912 | 0.788 | 1.036 |
| 2002 | 0.969 | 0.844 | 1.093 |
| 2003 | 0.997 | 0.884 | 1.111 |
| 2004 | 0.928 | 0.807 | 1.049 |
| 2005 | 0.905 | 0.787 | 1.023 |
| 2006 | 0.928 | 0.808 | 1.048 |
| 2007 | 0.907 | 0.789 | 1.026 |
| 2008 | 0.813 | 0.712 | 0.915 |
| 2009 | 0.827 | 0.715 | 0.938 |
| 2010 | 0.717 | 0.620 | 0.814 |
| 2011 | 0.549 | 0.402 | 0.696 |
| 2012 | 0.471 | 0.288 | 0.653 |
| 2013 | 0.355 | 0.149 | 0.562 |
| 2014 | 0.307 | 0.080 | 0.534 |
| 2015 | 0.308 | 0.068 | 0.547 |
| 2016 | 0.243 | 0.007 | 0.480 |
| 2017 | 0.260 | 0.027 | 0.493 |
Note: Panels show estimates of coefficients $$ B $$ and $$ C $$ from the equation $$$$ Inflation(t)=-B Slack(t)+C Inflation(t-1)+Other(t)$$$$, where Inflation is core inflation and Slack is the unemployment gap, both as in figure 3. All data are annual, and each point is the estimate for a rolling 20-year sample ended at the date shown on the horizontal axis. Shaded areas represent 70 percent confidence intervals. The data are through 2017.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED); Christopher Erceg, James Hebden, Michael Kiley, David López-Salido, and Robert Tetlow (2018), "Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-059 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August), http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.059.
Figure 6. Indicators of Inflation Expectations
Quarterly
Percent
| Period | Professional Forecasters | Households |
|---|---|---|
| 1980:Q1 | 6.99 | NA |
| 1980:Q2 | 7.46 | NA |
| 1980:Q3 | 7.66 | NA |
| 1980:Q4 | 7.86 | NA |
| 1981:Q1 | 7.64 | 6.67 |
| 1981:Q2 | 7.41 | NA |
| 1981:Q3 | 7.04 | 6.33 |
| 1981:Q4 | 6.66 | NA |
| 1982:Q1 | 5.99 | 5.67 |
| 1982:Q2 | 5.31 | NA |
| 1982:Q3 | 5.29 | 5.27 |
| 1982:Q4 | 5.26 | NA |
| 1983:Q1 | 4.91 | 4.90 |
| 1983:Q2 | 4.88 | NA |
| 1983:Q3 | 4.84 | 4.97 |
| 1983:Q4 | 4.81 | NA |
| 1984:Q1 | 5.21 | 4.97 |
| 1984:Q2 | 5.08 | NA |
| 1984:Q3 | 4.95 | 4.97 |
| 1984:Q4 | 4.81 | NA |
| 1985:Q1 | 3.96 | 4.73 |
| 1985:Q2 | 4.03 | NA |
| 1985:Q3 | 4.09 | 4.67 |
| 1985:Q4 | 4.16 | NA |
| 1986:Q1 | 3.61 | NA |
| 1986:Q2 | 3.61 | NA |
| 1986:Q3 | 3.61 | NA |
| 1986:Q4 | 3.61 | NA |
| 1987:Q1 | 3.78 | NA |
| 1987:Q2 | 3.78 | NA |
| 1987:Q3 | 3.79 | NA |
| 1987:Q4 | 3.78 | NA |
| 1988:Q1 | 3.48 | NA |
| 1988:Q2 | 3.52 | NA |
| 1988:Q3 | 3.45 | NA |
| 1988:Q4 | 3.44 | NA |
| 1989:Q1 | 3.32 | NA |
| 1989:Q2 | 3.25 | NA |
| 1989:Q3 | 3.37 | NA |
| 1989:Q4 | 3.42 | NA |
| 1990:Q1 | 3.16 | NA |
| 1990:Q2 | 3.42 | 4.30 |
| 1990:Q3 | 3.32 | 4.50 |
| 1990:Q4 | 3.19 | 4.57 |
| 1991:Q1 | 3.05 | 4.60 |
| 1991:Q2 | 2.99 | 4.37 |
| 1991:Q3 | 2.85 | 4.03 |
| 1991:Q4 | 2.93 | 3.77 |
| 1992:Q1 | 2.70 | 3.53 |
| 1992:Q2 | 2.96 | 3.77 |
| 1992:Q3 | 2.82 | 3.80 |
| 1992:Q4 | 2.69 | 3.60 |
| 1993:Q1 | 2.48 | 3.70 |
| 1993:Q2 | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| 1993:Q3 | 2.70 | 3.37 |
| 1993:Q4 | 2.60 | 3.50 |
| 1994:Q1 | 2.61 | 3.30 |
| 1994:Q2 | 2.65 | 3.33 |
| 1994:Q3 | 2.51 | 3.30 |
| 1994:Q4 | 2.54 | 3.23 |
| 1995:Q1 | 2.33 | 3.23 |
| 1995:Q2 | 2.38 | 3.27 |
| 1995:Q3 | 2.37 | 3.13 |
| 1995:Q4 | 2.26 | 3.13 |
| 1996:Q1 | 2.35 | 3.23 |
| 1996:Q2 | 2.38 | 3.13 |
| 1996:Q3 | 2.34 | 3.23 |
| 1996:Q4 | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| 1997:Q1 | 2.40 | 3.10 |
| 1997:Q2 | 2.26 | 3.00 |
| 1997:Q3 | 2.47 | 3.00 |
| 1997:Q4 | 2.09 | 3.07 |
| 1998:Q1 | 2.15 | 2.87 |
| 1998:Q2 | 1.97 | 2.80 |
| 1998:Q3 | 1.92 | 2.77 |
| 1998:Q4 | 1.92 | 2.83 |
| 1999:Q1 | 1.72 | 2.83 |
| 1999:Q2 | 2.00 | 2.83 |
| 1999:Q3 | 2.11 | 2.87 |
| 1999:Q4 | 2.16 | 2.87 |
| 2000:Q1 | 2.18 | 3.00 |
| 2000:Q2 | 2.15 | 2.83 |
| 2000:Q3 | 2.13 | 2.90 |
| 2000:Q4 | 2.12 | 2.97 |
| 2001:Q1 | 2.11 | 2.97 |
| 2001:Q2 | 2.11 | 3.03 |
| 2001:Q3 | 2.11 | 2.93 |
| 2001:Q4 | 2.16 | 2.83 |
| 2002:Q1 | 2.11 | 2.77 |
| 2002:Q2 | 2.11 | 2.87 |
| 2002:Q3 | 2.11 | 2.73 |
| 2002:Q4 | 2.06 | 2.80 |
| 2003:Q1 | 2.11 | 2.73 |
| 2003:Q2 | 2.11 | 2.73 |
| 2003:Q3 | 2.11 | 2.70 |
| 2003:Q4 | 2.11 | 2.77 |
| 2004:Q1 | 2.11 | 2.87 |
| 2004:Q2 | 2.11 | 2.80 |
| 2004:Q3 | 2.11 | 2.77 |
| 2004:Q4 | 2.11 | 2.77 |
| 2005:Q1 | 2.06 | 2.80 |
| 2005:Q2 | 2.11 | 2.90 |
| 2005:Q3 | 2.11 | 2.93 |
| 2005:Q4 | 2.11 | 3.10 |
| 2006:Q1 | 2.11 | 2.90 |
| 2006:Q2 | 2.11 | 3.07 |
| 2006:Q3 | 2.11 | 3.03 |
| 2006:Q4 | 2.11 | 3.03 |
| 2007:Q1 | 2.00 | 2.93 |
| 2007:Q2 | 2.00 | 3.03 |
| 2007:Q3 | 2.10 | 2.97 |
| 2007:Q4 | 2.10 | 2.93 |
| 2008:Q1 | 2.20 | 2.97 |
| 2008:Q2 | 2.20 | 3.33 |
| 2008:Q3 | 2.20 | 3.13 |
| 2008:Q4 | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| 2009:Q1 | 2.20 | 2.87 |
| 2009:Q2 | 2.27 | 2.90 |
| 2009:Q3 | 2.15 | 2.87 |
| 2009:Q4 | 2.10 | 2.87 |
| 2010:Q1 | 2.10 | 2.77 |
| 2010:Q2 | 2.15 | 2.80 |
| 2010:Q3 | 2.10 | 2.80 |
| 2010:Q4 | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| 2011:Q1 | 2.10 | 3.00 |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.27 | 2.93 |
| 2011:Q3 | 2.25 | 2.87 |
| 2011:Q4 | 2.15 | 2.70 |
| 2012:Q1 | 2.15 | 2.87 |
| 2012:Q2 | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| 2012:Q3 | 2.20 | 2.83 |
| 2012:Q4 | 2.10 | 2.80 |
| 2013:Q1 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| 2013:Q2 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| 2013:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| 2013:Q4 | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| 2014:Q1 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| 2014:Q2 | 2.00 | 2.87 |
| 2014:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| 2014:Q4 | 2.00 | 2.73 |
| 2015:Q1 | 2.00 | 2.77 |
| 2015:Q2 | 1.98 | 2.67 |
| 2015:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.73 |
| 2015:Q4 | 1.90 | 2.57 |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.97 | 2.63 |
| 2016:Q2 | 2.00 | 2.53 |
| 2016:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.57 |
| 2016:Q4 | 2.00 | 2.43 |
| 2017:Q1 | 2.10 | 2.50 |
| 2017:Q2 | 2.09 | 2.43 |
| 2017:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.53 |
| 2017:Q4 | 2.00 | 2.43 |
| 2018:Q1 | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| 2018:Q2 | 2.00 | 2.53 |
| 2018:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.50 |
Note: The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) values are expectations for average personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inflation over the next 10 years. Before 2007, expectations are for consumer price index inflation, adjusted to a PCE basis. The data are quarterly and extend through August 2018.
Source: For professional forecasters, Survey of Professional Forecasters (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Real-Time Data Center).
Daily averaged to Weekly
Percent
| Period | Inflation Compensations |
|---|---|
| 1/8/1999 | 1.65 |
| 1/15/1999 | 1.77 |
| 1/22/1999 | 1.74 |
| 1/29/1999 | 1.64 |
| 2/5/1999 | 1.83 |
| 2/12/1999 | 1.89 |
| 2/19/1999 | 2.02 |
| 2/26/1999 | 2.02 |
| 3/5/1999 | 2.16 |
| 3/12/1999 | 2.09 |
| 3/19/1999 | 2.06 |
| 3/26/1999 | 2.10 |
| 4/2/1999 | 2.12 |
| 4/9/1999 | 1.91 |
| 4/16/1999 | 1.93 |
| 4/23/1999 | 2.04 |
| 4/30/1999 | 2.00 |
| 5/7/1999 | 2.23 |
| 5/14/1999 | 2.31 |
| 5/21/1999 | 2.30 |
| 5/28/1999 | 2.24 |
| 6/4/1999 | 2.41 |
| 6/11/1999 | 2.47 |
| 6/18/1999 | 2.52 |
| 6/25/1999 | 2.62 |
| 7/2/1999 | 2.51 |
| 7/9/1999 | 2.49 |
| 7/16/1999 | 2.31 |
| 7/23/1999 | 2.38 |
| 7/30/1999 | 2.48 |
| 8/6/1999 | 2.58 |
| 8/13/1999 | 2.73 |
| 8/20/1999 | 2.68 |
| 8/27/1999 | 2.57 |
| 9/3/1999 | 2.74 |
| 9/10/1999 | 2.75 |
| 9/17/1999 | 2.79 |
| 9/24/1999 | 2.66 |
| 10/1/1999 | 2.71 |
| 10/8/1999 | 2.74 |
| 10/15/1999 | 2.83 |
| 10/22/1999 | 2.94 |
| 10/29/1999 | 2.84 |
| 11/5/1999 | 2.61 |
| 11/12/1999 | 2.53 |
| 11/19/1999 | 2.52 |
| 11/26/1999 | 2.63 |
| 12/3/1999 | 2.73 |
| 12/10/1999 | 2.59 |
| 12/17/1999 | 2.59 |
| 12/24/1999 | 2.74 |
| 12/31/1999 | 2.76 |
| 1/7/2000 | 2.77 |
| 1/14/2000 | 2.71 |
| 1/21/2000 | 2.73 |
| 1/28/2000 | 2.60 |
| 2/4/2000 | 2.41 |
| 2/11/2000 | 2.38 |
| 2/18/2000 | 2.39 |
| 2/25/2000 | 2.24 |
| 3/3/2000 | 2.28 |
| 3/10/2000 | 2.34 |
| 3/17/2000 | 2.32 |
| 3/24/2000 | 2.14 |
| 3/31/2000 | 2.21 |
| 4/7/2000 | 2.09 |
| 4/14/2000 | 2.12 |
| 4/21/2000 | 2.29 |
| 4/28/2000 | 2.29 |
| 5/5/2000 | 2.48 |
| 5/12/2000 | 2.53 |
| 5/19/2000 | 2.41 |
| 5/26/2000 | 2.37 |
| 6/2/2000 | 2.25 |
| 6/9/2000 | 2.15 |
| 6/16/2000 | 2.12 |
| 6/23/2000 | 2.19 |
| 6/30/2000 | 2.19 |
| 7/7/2000 | 2.21 |
| 7/14/2000 | 2.24 |
| 7/21/2000 | 2.20 |
| 7/28/2000 | 2.10 |
| 8/4/2000 | 2.07 |
| 8/11/2000 | 2.03 |
| 8/18/2000 | 1.96 |
| 8/25/2000 | 1.93 |
| 9/1/2000 | 1.99 |
| 9/8/2000 | 2.03 |
| 9/15/2000 | 2.16 |
| 9/22/2000 | 2.29 |
| 9/29/2000 | 2.23 |
| 10/6/2000 | 2.28 |
| 10/13/2000 | 2.17 |
| 10/20/2000 | 2.16 |
| 10/27/2000 | 2.10 |
| 11/3/2000 | 2.19 |
| 11/10/2000 | 2.26 |
| 11/17/2000 | 2.14 |
| 11/24/2000 | 2.07 |
| 12/1/2000 | 2.02 |
| 12/8/2000 | 1.96 |
| 12/15/2000 | 1.89 |
| 12/22/2000 | 1.87 |
| 12/29/2000 | 1.93 |
| 1/5/2001 | 1.99 |
| 1/12/2001 | 2.08 |
| 1/19/2001 | 2.16 |
| 1/26/2001 | 2.25 |
| 2/2/2001 | 2.16 |
| 2/9/2001 | 2.15 |
| 2/16/2001 | 2.18 |
| 2/23/2001 | 2.21 |
| 3/2/2001 | 2.08 |
| 3/9/2001 | 2.10 |
| 3/16/2001 | 2.06 |
| 3/23/2001 | 2.07 |
| 3/30/2001 | 2.24 |
| 4/6/2001 | 2.29 |
| 4/13/2001 | 2.30 |
| 4/20/2001 | 2.43 |
| 4/27/2001 | 2.55 |
| 5/4/2001 | 2.52 |
| 5/11/2001 | 2.57 |
| 5/18/2001 | 2.72 |
| 5/25/2001 | 2.70 |
| 6/1/2001 | 2.75 |
| 6/8/2001 | 2.61 |
| 6/15/2001 | 2.55 |
| 6/22/2001 | 2.54 |
| 6/29/2001 | 2.44 |
| 7/6/2001 | 2.31 |
| 7/13/2001 | 2.30 |
| 7/20/2001 | 2.48 |
| 7/27/2001 | 2.50 |
| 8/3/2001 | 2.58 |
| 8/10/2001 | 2.59 |
| 8/17/2001 | 2.53 |
| 8/24/2001 | 2.41 |
| 8/31/2001 | 2.39 |
| 9/7/2001 | 2.44 |
| 9/14/2001 | 2.51 |
| 9/21/2001 | 2.65 |
| 9/28/2001 | 2.54 |
| 10/5/2001 | 2.30 |
| 10/12/2001 | 2.41 |
| 10/19/2001 | 2.36 |
| 10/26/2001 | 2.35 |
| 11/2/2001 | 2.40 |
| 11/9/2001 | 2.43 |
| 11/16/2001 | 2.61 |
| 11/23/2001 | 2.82 |
| 11/30/2001 | 2.83 |
| 12/7/2001 | 2.81 |
| 12/14/2001 | 3.01 |
| 12/21/2001 | 2.94 |
| 12/28/2001 | 3.06 |
| 1/4/2002 | 3.05 |
| 1/11/2002 | 2.92 |
| 1/18/2002 | 2.78 |
| 1/25/2002 | 2.82 |
| 2/1/2002 | 2.74 |
| 2/8/2002 | 2.70 |
| 2/15/2002 | 2.74 |
| 2/22/2002 | 2.72 |
| 3/1/2002 | 2.78 |
| 3/8/2002 | 2.89 |
| 3/15/2002 | 3.02 |
| 3/22/2002 | 3.00 |
| 3/29/2002 | 2.97 |
| 4/5/2002 | 2.91 |
| 4/12/2002 | 2.88 |
| 4/19/2002 | 2.94 |
| 4/26/2002 | 2.86 |
| 5/3/2002 | 2.79 |
| 5/10/2002 | 2.88 |
| 5/17/2002 | 3.03 |
| 5/24/2002 | 2.96 |
| 5/31/2002 | 2.94 |
| 6/7/2002 | 3.00 |
| 6/14/2002 | 2.91 |
| 6/21/2002 | 2.86 |
| 6/28/2002 | 2.90 |
| 7/5/2002 | 2.90 |
| 7/12/2002 | 2.78 |
| 7/19/2002 | 2.84 |
| 7/26/2002 | 2.79 |
| 8/2/2002 | 2.86 |
| 8/9/2002 | 2.84 |
| 8/16/2002 | 2.72 |
| 8/23/2002 | 2.84 |
| 8/30/2002 | 2.81 |
| 9/6/2002 | 2.64 |
| 9/13/2002 | 2.64 |
| 9/20/2002 | 2.54 |
| 9/27/2002 | 2.47 |
| 10/4/2002 | 2.46 |
| 10/11/2002 | 2.43 |
| 10/18/2002 | 2.67 |
| 10/25/2002 | 2.67 |
| 11/1/2002 | 2.54 |
| 11/8/2002 | 2.52 |
| 11/15/2002 | 2.50 |
| 11/22/2002 | 2.61 |
| 11/29/2002 | 2.72 |
| 12/6/2002 | 2.74 |
| 12/13/2002 | 2.63 |
| 12/20/2002 | 2.70 |
| 12/27/2002 | 2.61 |
| 1/3/2003 | 2.68 |
| 1/10/2003 | 2.75 |
| 1/17/2003 | 2.80 |
| 1/24/2003 | 2.73 |
| 1/31/2003 | 2.73 |
| 2/7/2003 | 2.72 |
| 2/14/2003 | 2.79 |
| 2/21/2003 | 2.74 |
| 2/28/2003 | 2.66 |
| 3/7/2003 | 2.59 |
| 3/14/2003 | 2.52 |
| 3/21/2003 | 2.59 |
| 3/28/2003 | 2.55 |
| 4/4/2003 | 2.56 |
| 4/11/2003 | 2.52 |
| 4/18/2003 | 2.45 |
| 4/25/2003 | 2.45 |
| 5/2/2003 | 2.48 |
| 5/9/2003 | 2.48 |
| 5/16/2003 | 2.41 |
| 5/23/2003 | 2.34 |
| 5/30/2003 | 2.37 |
| 6/6/2003 | 2.35 |
| 6/13/2003 | 2.30 |
| 6/20/2003 | 2.27 |
| 6/27/2003 | 2.32 |
| 7/4/2003 | 2.34 |
| 7/11/2003 | 2.45 |
| 7/18/2003 | 2.65 |
| 7/25/2003 | 2.84 |
| 8/1/2003 | 2.98 |
| 8/8/2003 | 2.94 |
| 8/15/2003 | 3.06 |
| 8/22/2003 | 3.07 |
| 8/29/2003 | 3.01 |
| 9/5/2003 | 3.00 |
| 9/12/2003 | 2.94 |
| 9/19/2003 | 2.91 |
| 9/26/2003 | 2.86 |
| 10/3/2003 | 2.77 |
| 10/10/2003 | 2.92 |
| 10/17/2003 | 3.06 |
| 10/24/2003 | 3.08 |
| 10/31/2003 | 3.16 |
| 11/7/2003 | 3.23 |
| 11/14/2003 | 3.22 |
| 11/21/2003 | 3.12 |
| 11/28/2003 | 3.07 |
| 12/5/2003 | 3.23 |
| 12/12/2003 | 3.19 |
| 12/19/2003 | 3.13 |
| 12/26/2003 | 3.12 |
| 1/2/2004 | 3.16 |
| 1/9/2004 | 3.03 |
| 1/16/2004 | 2.87 |
| 1/23/2004 | 2.89 |
| 1/30/2004 | 2.92 |
| 2/6/2004 | 2.93 |
| 2/13/2004 | 2.92 |
| 2/20/2004 | 2.84 |
| 2/27/2004 | 2.86 |
| 3/5/2004 | 2.99 |
| 3/12/2004 | 2.88 |
| 3/19/2004 | 2.88 |
| 3/26/2004 | 2.87 |
| 4/2/2004 | 2.99 |
| 4/9/2004 | 2.99 |
| 4/16/2004 | 3.05 |
| 4/23/2004 | 2.98 |
| 4/30/2004 | 2.93 |
| 5/7/2004 | 3.03 |
| 5/14/2004 | 3.23 |
| 5/21/2004 | 3.31 |
| 5/28/2004 | 3.26 |
| 6/4/2004 | 3.27 |
| 6/11/2004 | 3.19 |
| 6/18/2004 | 3.04 |
| 6/25/2004 | 3.02 |
| 7/2/2004 | 3.04 |
| 7/9/2004 | 2.97 |
| 7/16/2004 | 2.94 |
| 7/23/2004 | 2.91 |
| 7/30/2004 | 2.97 |
| 8/6/2004 | 2.91 |
| 8/13/2004 | 2.90 |
| 8/20/2004 | 2.91 |
| 8/27/2004 | 2.90 |
| 9/3/2004 | 2.87 |
| 9/10/2004 | 2.85 |
| 9/17/2004 | 2.79 |
| 9/24/2004 | 2.71 |
| 10/1/2004 | 2.73 |
| 10/8/2004 | 2.75 |
| 10/15/2004 | 2.77 |
| 10/22/2004 | 2.71 |
| 10/29/2004 | 2.66 |
| 11/5/2004 | 2.72 |
| 11/12/2004 | 2.77 |
| 11/19/2004 | 2.73 |
| 11/26/2004 | 2.77 |
| 12/3/2004 | 2.79 |
| 12/10/2004 | 2.75 |
| 12/17/2004 | 2.74 |
| 12/24/2004 | 2.79 |
| 12/31/2004 | 2.82 |
| 1/7/2005 | 2.77 |
| 1/14/2005 | 2.69 |
| 1/21/2005 | 2.70 |
| 1/28/2005 | 2.67 |
| 2/4/2005 | 2.60 |
| 2/11/2005 | 2.56 |
| 2/18/2005 | 2.60 |
| 2/25/2005 | 2.69 |
| 3/4/2005 | 2.75 |
| 3/11/2005 | 2.79 |
| 3/18/2005 | 2.85 |
| 3/25/2005 | 2.83 |
| 4/1/2005 | 2.78 |
| 4/8/2005 | 2.76 |
| 4/15/2005 | 2.78 |
| 4/22/2005 | 2.74 |
| 4/29/2005 | 2.67 |
| 5/6/2005 | 2.67 |
| 5/13/2005 | 2.68 |
| 5/20/2005 | 2.61 |
| 5/27/2005 | 2.56 |
| 6/3/2005 | 2.48 |
| 6/10/2005 | 2.47 |
| 6/17/2005 | 2.49 |
| 6/24/2005 | 2.43 |
| 7/1/2005 | 2.40 |
| 7/8/2005 | 2.39 |
| 7/15/2005 | 2.39 |
| 7/22/2005 | 2.45 |
| 7/29/2005 | 2.49 |
| 8/5/2005 | 2.51 |
| 8/12/2005 | 2.50 |
| 8/19/2005 | 2.46 |
| 8/26/2005 | 2.45 |
| 9/2/2005 | 2.46 |
| 9/9/2005 | 2.47 |
| 9/16/2005 | 2.49 |
| 9/23/2005 | 2.51 |
| 9/30/2005 | 2.52 |
| 10/7/2005 | 2.47 |
| 10/14/2005 | 2.52 |
| 10/21/2005 | 2.56 |
| 10/28/2005 | 2.57 |
| 11/4/2005 | 2.71 |
| 11/11/2005 | 2.72 |
| 11/18/2005 | 2.62 |
| 11/25/2005 | 2.57 |
| 12/2/2005 | 2.59 |
| 12/9/2005 | 2.56 |
| 12/16/2005 | 2.57 |
| 12/23/2005 | 2.54 |
| 12/30/2005 | 2.47 |
| 1/6/2006 | 2.48 |
| 1/13/2006 | 2.49 |
| 1/20/2006 | 2.54 |
| 1/27/2006 | 2.58 |
| 2/3/2006 | 2.59 |
| 2/10/2006 | 2.57 |
| 2/17/2006 | 2.55 |
| 2/24/2006 | 2.51 |
| 3/3/2006 | 2.55 |
| 3/10/2006 | 2.60 |
| 3/17/2006 | 2.59 |
| 3/24/2006 | 2.56 |
| 3/31/2006 | 2.58 |
| 4/7/2006 | 2.61 |
| 4/14/2006 | 2.64 |
| 4/21/2006 | 2.74 |
| 4/28/2006 | 2.76 |
| 5/5/2006 | 2.80 |
| 5/12/2006 | 2.80 |
| 5/19/2006 | 2.78 |
| 5/26/2006 | 2.71 |
| 6/2/2006 | 2.73 |
| 6/9/2006 | 2.64 |
| 6/16/2006 | 2.63 |
| 6/23/2006 | 2.67 |
| 6/30/2006 | 2.68 |
| 7/7/2006 | 2.67 |
| 7/14/2006 | 2.63 |
| 7/21/2006 | 2.66 |
| 7/28/2006 | 2.68 |
| 8/4/2006 | 2.70 |
| 8/11/2006 | 2.74 |
| 8/18/2006 | 2.72 |
| 8/25/2006 | 2.73 |
| 9/1/2006 | 2.69 |
| 9/8/2006 | 2.69 |
| 9/15/2006 | 2.66 |
| 9/22/2006 | 2.63 |
| 9/29/2006 | 2.59 |
| 10/6/2006 | 2.59 |
| 10/13/2006 | 2.61 |
| 10/20/2006 | 2.60 |
| 10/27/2006 | 2.59 |
| 11/3/2006 | 2.58 |
| 11/10/2006 | 2.63 |
| 11/17/2006 | 2.58 |
| 11/24/2006 | 2.52 |
| 12/1/2006 | 2.52 |
| 12/8/2006 | 2.54 |
| 12/15/2006 | 2.54 |
| 12/22/2006 | 2.49 |
| 12/29/2006 | 2.49 |
| 1/5/2007 | 2.47 |
| 1/12/2007 | 2.47 |
| 1/19/2007 | 2.47 |
| 1/26/2007 | 2.55 |
| 2/2/2007 | 2.57 |
| 2/9/2007 | 2.55 |
| 2/16/2007 | 2.54 |
| 2/23/2007 | 2.53 |
| 3/2/2007 | 2.51 |
| 3/9/2007 | 2.50 |
| 3/16/2007 | 2.51 |
| 3/23/2007 | 2.54 |
| 3/30/2007 | 2.60 |
| 4/6/2007 | 2.60 |
| 4/13/2007 | 2.60 |
| 4/20/2007 | 2.58 |
| 4/27/2007 | 2.55 |
| 5/4/2007 | 2.52 |
| 5/11/2007 | 2.48 |
| 5/18/2007 | 2.46 |
| 5/25/2007 | 2.54 |
| 6/1/2007 | 2.56 |
| 6/8/2007 | 2.59 |
| 6/15/2007 | 2.65 |
| 6/22/2007 | 2.67 |
| 6/29/2007 | 2.65 |
| 7/6/2007 | 2.64 |
| 7/13/2007 | 2.64 |
| 7/20/2007 | 2.64 |
| 7/27/2007 | 2.68 |
| 8/3/2007 | 2.70 |
| 8/10/2007 | 2.68 |
| 8/17/2007 | 2.70 |
| 8/24/2007 | 2.69 |
| 8/31/2007 | 2.68 |
| 9/7/2007 | 2.70 |
| 9/14/2007 | 2.73 |
| 9/21/2007 | 2.81 |
| 9/28/2007 | 2.80 |
| 10/5/2007 | 2.79 |
| 10/12/2007 | 2.78 |
| 10/19/2007 | 2.76 |
| 10/26/2007 | 2.76 |
| 11/2/2007 | 2.78 |
| 11/9/2007 | 2.82 |
| 11/16/2007 | 2.78 |
| 11/23/2007 | 2.81 |
| 11/30/2007 | 2.78 |
| 12/7/2007 | 2.76 |
| 12/14/2007 | 2.76 |
| 12/21/2007 | 2.77 |
| 12/28/2007 | 2.78 |
| 1/4/2008 | 2.72 |
| 1/11/2008 | 2.70 |
| 1/18/2008 | 2.79 |
| 1/25/2008 | 2.92 |
| 2/1/2008 | 2.98 |
| 2/8/2008 | 3.01 |
| 2/15/2008 | 2.99 |
| 2/22/2008 | 2.95 |
| 2/29/2008 | 2.99 |
| 3/7/2008 | 3.13 |
| 3/14/2008 | 3.21 |
| 3/21/2008 | 2.96 |
| 3/28/2008 | 2.89 |
| 4/4/2008 | 2.96 |
| 4/11/2008 | 2.88 |
| 4/18/2008 | 2.92 |
| 4/25/2008 | 2.89 |
| 5/2/2008 | 2.80 |
| 5/9/2008 | 2.84 |
| 5/16/2008 | 2.86 |
| 5/23/2008 | 2.90 |
| 5/30/2008 | 2.96 |
| 6/6/2008 | 2.94 |
| 6/13/2008 | 2.93 |
| 6/20/2008 | 2.88 |
| 6/27/2008 | 2.81 |
| 7/4/2008 | 2.78 |
| 7/11/2008 | 2.78 |
| 7/18/2008 | 2.82 |
| 7/25/2008 | 2.84 |
| 8/1/2008 | 2.93 |
| 8/8/2008 | 2.87 |
| 8/15/2008 | 2.78 |
| 8/22/2008 | 2.81 |
| 8/29/2008 | 2.81 |
| 9/5/2008 | 2.81 |
| 9/12/2008 | 2.90 |
| 9/19/2008 | 2.78 |
| 9/26/2008 | 2.97 |
| 10/3/2008 | 2.70 |
| 10/10/2008 | 2.46 |
| 10/17/2008 | 3.00 |
| 10/24/2008 | 3.24 |
| 10/31/2008 | 3.35 |
| 11/7/2008 | 3.30 |
| 11/14/2008 | 3.17 |
| 11/21/2008 | 2.45 |
| 11/28/2008 | 2.31 |
| 12/5/2008 | 2.62 |
| 12/12/2008 | 2.44 |
| 12/19/2008 | 2.35 |
| 12/26/2008 | 2.11 |
| 1/2/2009 | 2.09 |
| 1/9/2009 | 2.22 |
| 1/16/2009 | 2.18 |
| 1/23/2009 | 2.46 |
| 1/30/2009 | 2.74 |
| 2/6/2009 | 2.69 |
| 2/13/2009 | 2.62 |
| 2/20/2009 | 2.66 |
| 2/27/2009 | 2.45 |
| 3/6/2009 | 2.35 |
| 3/13/2009 | 2.29 |
| 3/20/2009 | 2.50 |
| 3/27/2009 | 2.47 |
| 4/3/2009 | 2.39 |
| 4/10/2009 | 2.43 |
| 4/17/2009 | 2.43 |
| 4/24/2009 | 2.55 |
| 5/1/2009 | 2.72 |
| 5/8/2009 | 2.63 |
| 5/15/2009 | 2.63 |
| 5/22/2009 | 2.85 |
| 5/29/2009 | 3.04 |
| 6/5/2009 | 3.09 |
| 6/12/2009 | 2.89 |
| 6/19/2009 | 2.83 |
| 6/26/2009 | 2.93 |
| 7/3/2009 | 2.93 |
| 7/10/2009 | 2.77 |
| 7/17/2009 | 2.99 |
| 7/24/2009 | 3.16 |
| 7/31/2009 | 3.18 |
| 8/7/2009 | 3.21 |
| 8/14/2009 | 3.22 |
| 8/21/2009 | 3.20 |
| 8/28/2009 | 3.08 |
| 9/4/2009 | 3.02 |
| 9/11/2009 | 3.04 |
| 9/18/2009 | 2.94 |
| 9/25/2009 | 2.97 |
| 10/2/2009 | 2.84 |
| 10/9/2009 | 2.85 |
| 10/16/2009 | 3.07 |
| 10/23/2009 | 3.07 |
| 10/30/2009 | 3.05 |
| 11/6/2009 | 3.18 |
| 11/13/2009 | 3.25 |
| 11/20/2009 | 3.16 |
| 11/27/2009 | 3.04 |
| 12/4/2009 | 3.07 |
| 12/11/2009 | 3.09 |
| 12/18/2009 | 3.17 |
| 12/25/2009 | 3.23 |
| 1/1/2010 | 3.23 |
| 1/8/2010 | 3.26 |
| 1/15/2010 | 3.24 |
| 1/22/2010 | 3.19 |
| 1/29/2010 | 3.22 |
| 2/5/2010 | 3.24 |
| 2/12/2010 | 3.12 |
| 2/19/2010 | 3.13 |
| 2/26/2010 | 3.02 |
| 3/5/2010 | 2.97 |
| 3/12/2010 | 3.00 |
| 3/19/2010 | 2.93 |
| 3/26/2010 | 2.95 |
| 4/2/2010 | 3.01 |
| 4/9/2010 | 3.08 |
| 4/16/2010 | 3.07 |
| 4/23/2010 | 3.07 |
| 4/30/2010 | 3.14 |
| 5/7/2010 | 3.05 |
| 5/14/2010 | 3.07 |
| 5/21/2010 | 2.87 |
| 5/28/2010 | 2.76 |
| 6/4/2010 | 2.84 |
| 6/11/2010 | 2.76 |
| 6/18/2010 | 2.83 |
| 6/25/2010 | 2.78 |
| 7/2/2010 | 2.59 |
| 7/9/2010 | 2.59 |
| 7/16/2010 | 2.65 |
| 7/23/2010 | 2.56 |
| 7/30/2010 | 2.62 |
| 8/6/2010 | 2.63 |
| 8/13/2010 | 2.49 |
| 8/20/2010 | 2.33 |
| 8/27/2010 | 2.28 |
| 9/3/2010 | 2.40 |
| 9/10/2010 | 2.57 |
| 9/17/2010 | 2.68 |
| 9/24/2010 | 2.70 |
| 10/1/2010 | 2.55 |
| 10/8/2010 | 2.58 |
| 10/15/2010 | 2.77 |
| 10/22/2010 | 2.88 |
| 10/29/2010 | 3.03 |
| 11/5/2010 | 3.01 |
| 11/12/2010 | 2.84 |
| 11/19/2010 | 2.93 |
| 11/26/2010 | 2.99 |
| 12/3/2010 | 3.01 |
| 12/10/2010 | 3.10 |
| 12/17/2010 | 3.21 |
| 12/24/2010 | 3.15 |
| 12/31/2010 | 3.07 |
| 1/7/2011 | 3.09 |
| 1/14/2011 | 3.05 |
| 1/21/2011 | 3.06 |
| 1/28/2011 | 2.97 |
| 2/4/2011 | 3.02 |
| 2/11/2011 | 2.95 |
| 2/18/2011 | 2.84 |
| 2/25/2011 | 2.85 |
| 3/4/2011 | 2.96 |
| 3/11/2011 | 3.02 |
| 3/18/2011 | 2.94 |
| 3/25/2011 | 2.88 |
| 4/1/2011 | 2.91 |
| 4/8/2011 | 3.00 |
| 4/15/2011 | 3.10 |
| 4/22/2011 | 3.10 |
| 4/29/2011 | 3.01 |
| 5/6/2011 | 2.96 |
| 5/13/2011 | 2.94 |
| 5/20/2011 | 2.83 |
| 5/27/2011 | 2.84 |
| 6/3/2011 | 2.79 |
| 6/10/2011 | 2.77 |
| 6/17/2011 | 2.76 |
| 6/24/2011 | 2.82 |
| 7/1/2011 | 3.11 |
| 7/8/2011 | 3.07 |
| 7/15/2011 | 2.96 |
| 7/22/2011 | 3.07 |
| 7/29/2011 | 3.21 |
| 8/5/2011 | 3.06 |
| 8/12/2011 | 3.00 |
| 8/19/2011 | 2.85 |
| 8/26/2011 | 2.72 |
| 9/2/2011 | 2.67 |
| 9/9/2011 | 2.52 |
| 9/16/2011 | 2.48 |
| 9/23/2011 | 2.29 |
| 9/30/2011 | 2.31 |
| 10/7/2011 | 2.30 |
| 10/14/2011 | 2.48 |
| 10/21/2011 | 2.45 |
| 10/28/2011 | 2.58 |
| 11/4/2011 | 2.48 |
| 11/11/2011 | 2.46 |
| 11/18/2011 | 2.38 |
| 11/25/2011 | 2.30 |
| 12/2/2011 | 2.45 |
| 12/9/2011 | 2.49 |
| 12/16/2011 | 2.41 |
| 12/23/2011 | 2.50 |
| 12/30/2011 | 2.48 |
| 1/6/2012 | 2.56 |
| 1/13/2012 | 2.54 |
| 1/20/2012 | 2.55 |
| 1/27/2012 | 2.62 |
| 2/3/2012 | 2.56 |
| 2/10/2012 | 2.64 |
| 2/17/2012 | 2.61 |
| 2/24/2012 | 2.59 |
| 3/2/2012 | 2.54 |
| 3/9/2012 | 2.50 |
| 3/16/2012 | 2.70 |
| 3/23/2012 | 2.82 |
| 3/30/2012 | 2.72 |
| 4/6/2012 | 2.72 |
| 4/13/2012 | 2.67 |
| 4/20/2012 | 2.66 |
| 4/27/2012 | 2.67 |
| 5/4/2012 | 2.63 |
| 5/11/2012 | 2.57 |
| 5/18/2012 | 2.46 |
| 5/25/2012 | 2.53 |
| 6/1/2012 | 2.45 |
| 6/8/2012 | 2.59 |
| 6/15/2012 | 2.48 |
| 6/22/2012 | 2.47 |
| 6/29/2012 | 2.49 |
| 7/6/2012 | 2.45 |
| 7/13/2012 | 2.42 |
| 7/20/2012 | 2.46 |
| 7/27/2012 | 2.45 |
| 8/3/2012 | 2.53 |
| 8/10/2012 | 2.59 |
| 8/17/2012 | 2.58 |
| 8/24/2012 | 2.58 |
| 8/31/2012 | 2.54 |
| 9/7/2012 | 2.55 |
| 9/14/2012 | 2.70 |
| 9/21/2012 | 2.84 |
| 9/28/2012 | 2.72 |
| 10/5/2012 | 2.79 |
| 10/12/2012 | 2.78 |
| 10/19/2012 | 2.80 |
| 10/26/2012 | 2.88 |
| 11/2/2012 | 2.88 |
| 11/9/2012 | 2.83 |
| 11/16/2012 | 2.72 |
| 11/23/2012 | 2.71 |
| 11/30/2012 | 2.69 |
| 12/7/2012 | 2.78 |
| 12/14/2012 | 2.85 |
| 12/21/2012 | 2.87 |
| 12/28/2012 | 2.83 |
| 1/4/2013 | 2.86 |
| 1/11/2013 | 2.91 |
| 1/18/2013 | 2.87 |
| 1/25/2013 | 2.88 |
| 2/1/2013 | 2.91 |
| 2/8/2013 | 2.89 |
| 2/15/2013 | 2.87 |
| 2/22/2013 | 2.83 |
| 3/1/2013 | 2.79 |
| 3/8/2013 | 2.86 |
| 3/15/2013 | 2.86 |
| 3/22/2013 | 2.80 |
| 3/29/2013 | 2.75 |
| 4/5/2013 | 2.72 |
| 4/12/2013 | 2.72 |
| 4/19/2013 | 2.72 |
| 4/26/2013 | 2.77 |
| 5/3/2013 | 2.72 |
| 5/10/2013 | 2.71 |
| 5/17/2013 | 2.72 |
| 5/24/2013 | 2.71 |
| 5/31/2013 | 2.70 |
| 6/7/2013 | 2.62 |
| 6/14/2013 | 2.44 |
| 6/21/2013 | 2.40 |
| 6/28/2013 | 2.40 |
| 7/5/2013 | 2.46 |
| 7/12/2013 | 2.43 |
| 7/19/2013 | 2.58 |
| 7/26/2013 | 2.64 |
| 8/2/2013 | 2.69 |
| 8/9/2013 | 2.74 |
| 8/16/2013 | 2.73 |
| 8/23/2013 | 2.67 |
| 8/30/2013 | 2.60 |
| 9/6/2013 | 2.56 |
| 9/13/2013 | 2.54 |
| 9/20/2013 | 2.60 |
| 9/27/2013 | 2.64 |
| 10/4/2013 | 2.64 |
| 10/11/2013 | 2.61 |
| 10/18/2013 | 2.57 |
| 10/25/2013 | 2.56 |
| 11/1/2013 | 2.56 |
| 11/8/2013 | 2.58 |
| 11/15/2013 | 2.57 |
| 11/22/2013 | 2.61 |
| 11/29/2013 | 2.63 |
| 12/6/2013 | 2.62 |
| 12/13/2013 | 2.62 |
| 12/20/2013 | 2.66 |
| 12/27/2013 | 2.67 |
| 1/3/2014 | 2.71 |
| 1/10/2014 | 2.69 |
| 1/17/2014 | 2.65 |
| 1/24/2014 | 2.61 |
| 1/31/2014 | 2.56 |
| 2/7/2014 | 2.52 |
| 2/14/2014 | 2.56 |
| 2/21/2014 | 2.50 |
| 2/28/2014 | 2.51 |
| 3/7/2014 | 2.53 |
| 3/14/2014 | 2.50 |
| 3/21/2014 | 2.49 |
| 3/28/2014 | 2.47 |
| 4/4/2014 | 2.48 |
| 4/11/2014 | 2.48 |
| 4/18/2014 | 2.46 |
| 4/25/2014 | 2.48 |
| 5/2/2014 | 2.46 |
| 5/9/2014 | 2.44 |
| 5/16/2014 | 2.43 |
| 5/23/2014 | 2.44 |
| 5/30/2014 | 2.48 |
| 6/6/2014 | 2.45 |
| 6/13/2014 | 2.43 |
| 6/20/2014 | 2.44 |
| 6/27/2014 | 2.46 |
| 7/4/2014 | 2.45 |
| 7/11/2014 | 2.49 |
| 7/18/2014 | 2.50 |
| 7/25/2014 | 2.49 |
| 8/1/2014 | 2.51 |
| 8/8/2014 | 2.50 |
| 8/15/2014 | 2.47 |
| 8/22/2014 | 2.42 |
| 8/29/2014 | 2.36 |
| 9/5/2014 | 2.39 |
| 9/12/2014 | 2.36 |
| 9/19/2014 | 2.36 |
| 9/26/2014 | 2.29 |
| 10/3/2014 | 2.16 |
| 10/10/2014 | 2.19 |
| 10/17/2014 | 2.20 |
| 10/24/2014 | 2.20 |
| 10/31/2014 | 2.19 |
| 11/7/2014 | 2.18 |
| 11/14/2014 | 2.17 |
| 11/21/2014 | 2.12 |
| 11/28/2014 | 2.08 |
| 12/5/2014 | 2.04 |
| 12/12/2014 | 1.97 |
| 12/19/2014 | 1.96 |
| 12/26/2014 | 1.98 |
| 1/2/2015 | 1.94 |
| 1/9/2015 | 1.84 |
| 1/16/2015 | 1.76 |
| 1/23/2015 | 1.80 |
| 1/30/2015 | 1.79 |
| 2/6/2015 | 1.80 |
| 2/13/2015 | 1.81 |
| 2/20/2015 | 1.90 |
| 2/27/2015 | 1.91 |
| 3/6/2015 | 2.00 |
| 3/13/2015 | 1.90 |
| 3/20/2015 | 1.90 |
| 3/27/2015 | 1.92 |
| 4/3/2015 | 1.89 |
| 4/10/2015 | 1.93 |
| 4/17/2015 | 1.92 |
| 4/24/2015 | 1.95 |
| 5/1/2015 | 2.03 |
| 5/8/2015 | 2.05 |
| 5/15/2015 | 2.06 |
| 5/22/2015 | 2.07 |
| 5/29/2015 | 2.01 |
| 6/5/2015 | 2.04 |
| 6/12/2015 | 2.07 |
| 6/19/2015 | 2.08 |
| 6/26/2015 | 2.15 |
| 7/3/2015 | 2.13 |
| 7/10/2015 | 2.11 |
| 7/17/2015 | 2.11 |
| 7/24/2015 | 2.06 |
| 7/31/2015 | 2.03 |
| 8/7/2015 | 1.96 |
| 8/14/2015 | 1.91 |
| 8/21/2015 | 1.88 |
| 8/28/2015 | 1.86 |
| 9/4/2015 | 1.81 |
| 9/11/2015 | 1.83 |
| 9/18/2015 | 1.84 |
| 9/25/2015 | 1.76 |
| 10/2/2015 | 1.67 |
| 10/9/2015 | 1.76 |
| 10/16/2015 | 1.73 |
| 10/23/2015 | 1.73 |
| 10/30/2015 | 1.76 |
| 11/6/2015 | 1.81 |
| 11/13/2015 | 1.84 |
| 11/20/2015 | 1.85 |
| 11/27/2015 | 1.86 |
| 12/4/2015 | 1.81 |
| 12/11/2015 | 1.77 |
| 12/18/2015 | 1.68 |
| 12/25/2015 | 1.67 |
| 1/1/2016 | 1.70 |
| 1/8/2016 | 1.68 |
| 1/15/2016 | 1.57 |
| 1/22/2016 | 1.50 |
| 1/29/2016 | 1.52 |
| 2/5/2016 | 1.54 |
| 2/12/2016 | 1.40 |
| 2/19/2016 | 1.39 |
| 2/26/2016 | 1.43 |
| 3/4/2016 | 1.56 |
| 3/11/2016 | 1.51 |
| 3/18/2016 | 1.56 |
| 3/25/2016 | 1.63 |
| 4/1/2016 | 1.64 |
| 4/8/2016 | 1.62 |
| 4/15/2016 | 1.56 |
| 4/22/2016 | 1.62 |
| 4/29/2016 | 1.67 |
| 5/6/2016 | 1.64 |
| 5/13/2016 | 1.60 |
| 5/20/2016 | 1.59 |
| 5/27/2016 | 1.55 |
| 6/3/2016 | 1.51 |
| 6/10/2016 | 1.50 |
| 6/17/2016 | 1.36 |
| 6/24/2016 | 1.38 |
| 7/1/2016 | 1.31 |
| 7/8/2016 | 1.30 |
| 7/15/2016 | 1.34 |
| 7/22/2016 | 1.40 |
| 7/29/2016 | 1.39 |
| 8/5/2016 | 1.40 |
| 8/12/2016 | 1.43 |
| 8/19/2016 | 1.44 |
| 8/26/2016 | 1.44 |
| 9/2/2016 | 1.46 |
| 9/9/2016 | 1.50 |
| 9/16/2016 | 1.49 |
| 9/23/2016 | 1.49 |
| 9/30/2016 | 1.48 |
| 10/7/2016 | 1.56 |
| 10/14/2016 | 1.56 |
| 10/21/2016 | 1.58 |
| 10/28/2016 | 1.62 |
| 11/4/2016 | 1.65 |
| 11/11/2016 | 1.77 |
| 11/18/2016 | 1.90 |
| 11/25/2016 | 1.95 |
| 12/2/2016 | 1.95 |
| 12/9/2016 | 2.00 |
| 12/16/2016 | 1.96 |
| 12/23/2016 | 1.94 |
| 12/30/2016 | 1.96 |
| 1/6/2017 | 1.94 |
| 1/13/2017 | 1.92 |
| 1/20/2017 | 1.99 |
| 1/27/2017 | 2.05 |
| 2/3/2017 | 2.01 |
| 2/10/2017 | 1.99 |
| 2/17/2017 | 2.04 |
| 2/24/2017 | 2.04 |
| 3/3/2017 | 2.02 |
| 3/10/2017 | 2.00 |
| 3/17/2017 | 2.02 |
| 3/24/2017 | 1.98 |
| 3/31/2017 | 1.97 |
| 4/7/2017 | 1.98 |
| 4/14/2017 | 1.94 |
| 4/21/2017 | 1.89 |
| 4/28/2017 | 1.94 |
| 5/5/2017 | 1.94 |
| 5/12/2017 | 1.92 |
| 5/19/2017 | 1.88 |
| 5/26/2017 | 1.86 |
| 6/2/2017 | 1.84 |
| 6/9/2017 | 1.81 |
| 6/16/2017 | 1.75 |
| 6/23/2017 | 1.72 |
| 6/30/2017 | 1.75 |
| 7/7/2017 | 1.79 |
| 7/14/2017 | 1.81 |
| 7/21/2017 | 1.81 |
| 7/28/2017 | 1.82 |
| 8/4/2017 | 1.81 |
| 8/11/2017 | 1.82 |
| 8/18/2017 | 1.82 |
| 8/25/2017 | 1.79 |
| 9/1/2017 | 1.78 |
| 9/8/2017 | 1.78 |
| 9/15/2017 | 1.82 |
| 9/22/2017 | 1.81 |
| 9/29/2017 | 1.78 |
| 10/6/2017 | 1.79 |
| 10/13/2017 | 1.81 |
| 10/20/2017 | 1.77 |
| 10/27/2017 | 1.81 |
| 11/3/2017 | 1.80 |
| 11/10/2017 | 1.79 |
| 11/17/2017 | 1.80 |
| 11/24/2017 | 1.79 |
| 12/1/2017 | 1.82 |
| 12/8/2017 | 1.86 |
| 12/15/2017 | 1.88 |
| 12/22/2017 | 1.94 |
| 12/29/2017 | 1.95 |
| 1/5/2018 | 1.98 |
| 1/12/2018 | 1.99 |
| 1/19/2018 | 2.04 |
| 1/26/2018 | 2.05 |
| 2/2/2018 | 2.14 |
| 2/9/2018 | 2.18 |
| 2/16/2018 | 2.17 |
| 2/23/2018 | 2.17 |
| 3/2/2018 | 2.16 |
| 3/9/2018 | 2.14 |
| 3/16/2018 | 2.08 |
| 3/23/2018 | 2.07 |
| 3/30/2018 | 2.04 |
| 4/6/2018 | 2.06 |
| 4/13/2018 | 2.08 |
| 4/20/2018 | 2.10 |
| 4/27/2018 | 2.16 |
| 5/4/2018 | 2.15 |
| 5/11/2018 | 2.18 |
| 5/18/2018 | 2.17 |
| 5/25/2018 | 2.13 |
| 6/1/2018 | 2.05 |
| 6/8/2018 | 2.11 |
| 6/15/2018 | 2.13 |
| 6/22/2018 | 2.15 |
| 6/29/2018 | 2.14 |
| 7/6/2018 | 2.14 |
| 7/13/2018 | 2.11 |
| 7/20/2018 | 2.12 |
| 7/27/2018 | 2.14 |
| 8/3/2018 | 2.15 |
| 8/10/2018 | 2.14 |
| 8/17/2018 | 2.11 |
| 8/24/2018 | 2.08 |
| 8/31/2018 | 2.09 |
| 9/7/2018 | 2.09 |
| 9/14/2018 | 2.09 |
| 9/21/2018 | 2.13 |
| 9/28/2018 | 2.15 |
Note: Inflation compensation is the difference between yields on nominal Treasury securities and yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which are indexed to the total consumer price index. The series reports weekly averages of daily data and extends from January 1998 through September 2018. Household expectations are median long-term expectations from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The data are quarterly averages and extend through 2018:Q3.
Source: For inflation compensation, Federal Reserve Board staff estimates using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; for households, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
Figure 7: Appearance of the Words "Shortage(s)" and "Bottleneck(s)" in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book
Quarterly
Word count
| Period | Word count |
|---|---|
| 1994:Q1 | 18 |
| 1994:Q2 | 30 |
| 1994:Q3 | 34 |
| 1994:Q4 | 42 |
| 1995:Q1 | 28 |
| 1995:Q2 | 20 |
| 1995:Q3 | 22 |
| 1995:Q4 | 26 |
| 1996:Q1 | 23 |
| 1996:Q2 | 26 |
| 1996:Q3 | 25 |
| 1996:Q4 | 39 |
| 1997:Q1 | 28 |
| 1997:Q2 | 40 |
| 1997:Q3 | 35 |
| 1997:Q4 | 56 |
| 1998:Q1 | 54 |
| 1998:Q2 | 33 |
| 1998:Q3 | 44 |
| 1998:Q4 | 32 |
| 1999:Q1 | 23 |
| 1999:Q2 | 70 |
| 1999:Q3 | 64 |
| 1999:Q4 | 38 |
| 2000:Q1 | 47 |
| 2000:Q2 | 47 |
| 2000:Q3 | 41 |
| 2000:Q4 | 37 |
| 2001:Q1 | 32 |
| 2001:Q2 | 21 |
| 2001:Q3 | 14 |
| 2001:Q4 | 8 |
| 2002:Q1 | 9 |
| 2002:Q2 | 10 |
| 2002:Q3 | 9 |
| 2002:Q4 | 4 |
| 2003:Q1 | 6 |
| 2003:Q2 | 2 |
| 2003:Q3 | 3 |
| 2003:Q4 | 1 |
| 2004:Q1 | 14 |
| 2004:Q2 | 22 |
| 2004:Q3 | 31 |
| 2004:Q4 | 22 |
| 2005:Q1 | 13 |
| 2005:Q2 | 19 |
| 2005:Q3 | 25 |
| 2005:Q4 | 27 |
| 2006:Q1 | 33 |
| 2006:Q2 | 25 |
| 2006:Q3 | 35 |
| 2006:Q4 | 29 |
| 2007:Q1 | 9 |
| 2007:Q2 | 14 |
| 2007:Q3 | 16 |
| 2007:Q4 | 16 |
| 2008:Q1 | 15 |
| 2008:Q2 | 20 |
| 2008:Q3 | 15 |
| 2008:Q4 | 10 |
| 2009:Q1 | 1 |
| 2009:Q2 | 1 |
| 2009:Q3 | 3 |
| 2009:Q4 | 2 |
| 2010:Q1 | 4 |
| 2010:Q2 | 3 |
| 2010:Q3 | 3 |
| 2010:Q4 | 7 |
| 2011:Q1 | 3 |
| 2011:Q2 | 19 |
| 2011:Q3 | 15 |
| 2011:Q4 | 16 |
| 2012:Q1 | 12 |
| 2012:Q2 | 15 |
| 2012:Q3 | 4 |
| 2012:Q4 | 11 |
| 2013:Q1 | 12 |
| 2013:Q2 | 15 |
| 2013:Q3 | 22 |
| 2013:Q4 | 12 |
| 2014:Q1 | 20 |
| 2014:Q2 | 20 |
| 2014:Q3 | 23 |
| 2014:Q4 | 22 |
| 2015:Q1 | 17 |
| 2015:Q2 | 20 |
| 2015:Q3 | 26 |
| 2015:Q4 | 29 |
| 2016:Q1 | 21 |
| 2016:Q2 | 20 |
| 2016:Q3 | 27 |
| 2016:Q4 | 25 |
| 2017:Q1 | 24 |
| 2017:Q2 | 31 |
| 2017:Q3 | 31 |
| 2017:Q4 | 29 |
| 2018:Q1 | 43 |
| 2018:Q2 | 42 |
| 2018:Q3 | 55 |
Note: The series is the sum of the word counts in the two Beige Books for each quarter. Data extend through 2018:Q3.
Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.
Figure 8. Indicators of Labor Market Tightness
Jobs Hard to Fill/ Most Important Problem
Percent
| Period | Jobs Hard to Fill | Most Important Problem: Poor Sales | Most Important Problem: Quality of Labor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1/1993 | 15.45 | 14 | 6 |
| 2/1/1993 | 15.08 | 13 | 4 |
| 3/1/1993 | 16.13 | 15 | 5 |
| 4/1/1993 | 14.91 | 13 | 4 |
| 5/1/1993 | 15.60 | 12 | 4 |
| 6/1/1993 | 15.83 | 13 | 5 |
| 7/1/1993 | 15.42 | 14 | 6 |
| 8/1/1993 | 16.49 | 13 | 5 |
| 9/1/1993 | 16.32 | 12 | 6 |
| 10/1/1993 | 16.81 | 12 | 6 |
| 11/1/1993 | 18.15 | 10 | 5 |
| 12/1/1993 | 18.79 | 11 | 5 |
| 1/1/1994 | 19.60 | 11 | 6 |
| 2/1/1994 | 20.06 | 11 | 7 |
| 3/1/1994 | 24.16 | 9 | 7 |
| 4/1/1994 | 20.74 | 10 | 7 |
| 5/1/1994 | 20.72 | 8 | 5 |
| 6/1/1994 | 18.62 | 9 | 8 |
| 7/1/1994 | 21.29 | 13 | 8 |
| 8/1/1994 | 22.69 | 8 | 9 |
| 9/1/1994 | 22.45 | 7 | 11 |
| 10/1/1994 | 22.80 | 14 | 7 |
| 11/1/1994 | 22.15 | 8 | 10 |
| 12/1/1994 | 21.65 | 9 | 7 |
| 1/1/1995 | 23.77 | 16 | 7 |
| 2/1/1995 | 25.05 | 7 | 10 |
| 3/1/1995 | 23.17 | 8 | 8 |
| 4/1/1995 | 22.55 | 10 | 9 |
| 5/1/1995 | 24.77 | 9 | 8 |
| 6/1/1995 | 22.45 | 7 | 9 |
| 7/1/1995 | 24.36 | 10 | 10 |
| 8/1/1995 | 23.80 | 10 | 8 |
| 9/1/1995 | 23.66 | 9 | 12 |
| 10/1/1995 | 24.80 | 6 | 12 |
| 11/1/1995 | 23.10 | 7 | 12 |
| 12/1/1995 | 24.49 | 10 | 12 |
| 1/1/1996 | 24.85 | 9 | 11 |
| 2/1/1996 | 24.91 | 8 | 9 |
| 3/1/1996 | 23.18 | 9 | 10 |
| 4/1/1996 | 24.49 | 9 | 12 |
| 5/1/1996 | 25.91 | 9 | 12 |
| 6/1/1996 | 26.34 | 9 | 17 |
| 7/1/1996 | 24.50 | 9 | 12 |
| 8/1/1996 | 28.79 | 7 | 12 |
| 9/1/1996 | 24.73 | 9 | 13 |
| 10/1/1996 | 25.80 | 7 | 15 |
| 11/1/1996 | 26.09 | 7 | 13 |
| 12/1/1996 | 24.39 | 7 | 12 |
| 1/1/1997 | 26.87 | 7 | 13 |
| 2/1/1997 | 25.77 | 7 | 12 |
| 3/1/1997 | 24.27 | 9 | 12 |
| 4/1/1997 | 26.47 | 6 | 13 |
| 5/1/1997 | 25.03 | 8 | 12 |
| 6/1/1997 | 25.26 | 6 | 13 |
| 7/1/1997 | 28.63 | 7 | 14 |
| 8/1/1997 | 27.70 | 6 | 18 |
| 9/1/1997 | 28.76 | 9 | 17 |
| 10/1/1997 | 27.84 | 8 | 16 |
| 11/1/1997 | 29.05 | 8 | 17 |
| 12/1/1997 | 28.35 | 8 | 16 |
| 1/1/1998 | 26.90 | 5 | 16 |
| 2/1/1998 | 25.59 | 6 | 17 |
| 3/1/1998 | 28.31 | 9 | 18 |
| 4/1/1998 | 28.50 | 7 | 17 |
| 5/1/1998 | 27.22 | 6 | 14 |
| 6/1/1998 | 30.19 | 8 | 16 |
| 7/1/1998 | 28.78 | 7 | 19 |
| 8/1/1998 | 27.56 | 7 | 20 |
| 9/1/1998 | 27.67 | 7 | 21 |
| 10/1/1998 | 31.88 | 9 | 21 |
| 11/1/1998 | 29.09 | 8 | 23 |
| 12/1/1998 | 30.26 | 7 | 16 |
| 1/1/1999 | 29.02 | 7 | 18 |
| 2/1/1999 | 30.54 | 6 | 16 |
| 3/1/1999 | 32.23 | 10 | 18 |
| 4/1/1999 | 32.45 | 8 | 18 |
| 5/1/1999 | 27.34 | 9 | 18 |
| 6/1/1999 | 30.17 | 7 | 17 |
| 7/1/1999 | 28.87 | 7 | 21 |
| 8/1/1999 | 27.48 | 8 | 18 |
| 9/1/1999 | 29.72 | 9 | 15 |
| 10/1/1999 | 31.93 | 7 | 22 |
| 11/1/1999 | 31.03 | 9 | 20 |
| 12/1/1999 | 32.15 | 7 | 23 |
| 1/1/2000 | 31.17 | 7 | 21 |
| 2/1/2000 | 31.47 | 6 | 21 |
| 3/1/2000 | 33.02 | 8 | 23 |
| 4/1/2000 | 33.42 | 7 | 23 |
| 5/1/2000 | 34.40 | 6 | 24 |
| 6/1/2000 | 33.35 | 7 | 20 |
| 7/1/2000 | 33.01 | 6 | 20 |
| 8/1/2000 | 34.36 | 6 | 23 |
| 9/1/2000 | 32.67 | 9 | 23 |
| 10/1/2000 | 32.11 | 7 | 22 |
| 11/1/2000 | 35.97 | 7 | 19 |
| 12/1/2000 | 32.06 | 11 | 23 |
| 1/1/2001 | 31.31 | 9 | 19 |
| 2/1/2001 | 31.43 | 12 | 19 |
| 3/1/2001 | 25.74 | 15 | 17 |
| 4/1/2001 | 25.39 | 12 | 15 |
| 5/1/2001 | 26.39 | 12 | 17 |
| 6/1/2001 | 26.49 | 9 | 15 |
| 7/1/2001 | 25.15 | 14 | 16 |
| 8/1/2001 | 29.33 | 13 | 17 |
| 9/1/2001 | 25.64 | 14 | 19 |
| 10/1/2001 | 21.25 | 16 | 15 |
| 11/1/2001 | 18.99 | 17 | 18 |
| 12/1/2001 | 20.07 | 18 | 13 |
| 1/1/2002 | 19.29 | 17 | 11 |
| 2/1/2002 | 19.30 | 14 | 12 |
| 3/1/2002 | 19.51 | 17 | 11 |
| 4/1/2002 | 20.39 | 14 | 12 |
| 5/1/2002 | 19.35 | 15 | 12 |
| 6/1/2002 | 21.66 | 14 | 12 |
| 7/1/2002 | 22.38 | 15 | 12 |
| 8/1/2002 | 19.24 | 16 | 10 |
| 9/1/2002 | 16.45 | 19 | 10 |
| 10/1/2002 | 19.42 | 16 | 10 |
| 11/1/2002 | 22.09 | 16 | 11 |
| 12/1/2002 | 16.15 | 17 | 8 |
| 1/1/2003 | 19.06 | 18 | 8 |
| 2/1/2003 | 19.24 | 19 | 9 |
| 3/1/2003 | 17.46 | 16 | 8 |
| 4/1/2003 | 16.42 | 19 | 8 |
| 5/1/2003 | 16.35 | 19 | 8 |
| 6/1/2003 | 16.72 | 18 | 10 |
| 7/1/2003 | 15.54 | 18 | 8 |
| 8/1/2003 | 20.20 | 18 | 10 |
| 9/1/2003 | 19.20 | 15 | 12 |
| 10/1/2003 | 18.59 | 15 | 7 |
| 11/1/2003 | 19.20 | 16 | 8 |
| 12/1/2003 | 20.18 | 13 | 9 |
| 1/1/2004 | 18.82 | 13 | 9 |
| 2/1/2004 | 19.19 | 13 | 9 |
| 3/1/2004 | 21.51 | 17 | 8 |
| 4/1/2004 | 20.48 | 13 | 9 |
| 5/1/2004 | 22.41 | 12 | 10 |
| 6/1/2004 | 19.75 | 12 | 9 |
| 7/1/2004 | 23.58 | 12 | 10 |
| 8/1/2004 | 21.23 | 11 | 10 |
| 9/1/2004 | 19.95 | 11 | 9 |
| 10/1/2004 | 23.71 | 12 | 9 |
| 11/1/2004 | 22.27 | 9 | 11 |
| 12/1/2004 | 23.17 | 10 | 10 |
| 1/1/2005 | 20.63 | 11 | 10 |
| 2/1/2005 | 23.22 | 9 | 10 |
| 3/1/2005 | 23.55 | 9 | 11 |
| 4/1/2005 | 22.44 | 10 | 10 |
| 5/1/2005 | 23.49 | 9 | 10 |
| 6/1/2005 | 19.80 | 9 | 9 |
| 7/1/2005 | 21.54 | 10 | 9 |
| 8/1/2005 | 23.35 | 10 | 12 |
| 9/1/2005 | 22.86 | 11 | 10 |
| 10/1/2005 | 21.81 | 10 | 9 |
| 11/1/2005 | 25.23 | 10 | 12 |
| 12/1/2005 | 22.09 | 10 | 9 |
| 1/1/2006 | 25.55 | 9 | 13 |
| 2/1/2006 | 25.18 | 8 | 7 |
| 3/1/2006 | 22.53 | 8 | 11 |
| 4/1/2006 | 30.41 | 9 | 13 |
| 5/1/2006 | 25.56 | 9 | 12 |
| 6/1/2006 | 24.86 | 12 | 12 |
| 7/1/2006 | 24.61 | 10 | 11 |
| 8/1/2006 | 24.45 | 11 | 12 |
| 9/1/2006 | 24.85 | 11 | 14 |
| 10/1/2006 | 27.84 | 10 | 15 |
| 11/1/2006 | 23.17 | 14 | 12 |
| 12/1/2006 | 19.03 | 12 | 10 |
| 1/1/2007 | 25.42 | 10 | 14 |
| 2/1/2007 | 24.17 | 10 | 12 |
| 3/1/2007 | 25.56 | 11 | 12 |
| 4/1/2007 | 25.29 | 11 | 12 |
| 5/1/2007 | 24.57 | 11 | 12 |
| 6/1/2007 | 25.96 | 13 | 13 |
| 7/1/2007 | 23.68 | 11 | 13 |
| 8/1/2007 | 24.55 | 14 | 14 |
| 9/1/2007 | 24.88 | 11 | 17 |
| 10/1/2007 | 22.89 | 13 | 14 |
| 11/1/2007 | 20.04 | 15 | 13 |
| 12/1/2007 | 21.06 | 9 | 14 |
| 1/1/2008 | 23.29 | 15 | 11 |
| 2/1/2008 | 19.03 | 13 | 12 |
| 3/1/2008 | 18.68 | 16 | 8 |
| 4/1/2008 | 20.30 | 17 | 9 |
| 5/1/2008 | 15.58 | 17 | 8 |
| 6/1/2008 | 20.93 | 15 | 10 |
| 7/1/2008 | 17.83 | 16 | 10 |
| 8/1/2008 | 14.60 | 18 | 9 |
| 9/1/2008 | 17.83 | 20 | 9 |
| 10/1/2008 | 14.98 | 23 | 8 |
| 11/1/2008 | 14.86 | 25 | 8 |
| 12/1/2008 | 14.11 | 27 | 7 |
| 1/1/2009 | 10.16 | 28 | 6 |
| 2/1/2009 | 9.98 | 33 | 4 |
| 3/1/2009 | 9.91 | 31 | 3 |
| 4/1/2009 | 8.31 | 32 | 4 |
| 5/1/2009 | 9.61 | 30 | 4 |
| 6/1/2009 | 10.74 | 32 | 6 |
| 7/1/2009 | 9.86 | 32 | 4 |
| 8/1/2009 | 7.64 | 32 | 4 |
| 9/1/2009 | 7.94 | 32 | 3 |
| 10/1/2009 | 8.96 | 33 | 4 |
| 11/1/2009 | 8.77 | 33 | 3 |
| 12/1/2009 | 10.10 | 34 | 4 |
| 1/1/2010 | 9.13 | 31 | 3 |
| 2/1/2010 | 9.82 | 34 | 4 |
| 3/1/2010 | 9.19 | 34 | 2 |
| 4/1/2010 | 10.36 | 29 | 4 |
| 5/1/2010 | 9.59 | 30 | 4 |
| 6/1/2010 | 8.57 | 30 | 4 |
| 7/1/2010 | 10.96 | 29 | 4 |
| 8/1/2010 | 10.56 | 31 | 5 |
| 9/1/2010 | 11.08 | 30 | 4 |
| 10/1/2010 | 10.94 | 30 | 3 |
| 11/1/2010 | 9.67 | 30 | 4 |
| 12/1/2010 | 13.00 | 33 | 4 |
| 1/1/2011 | 12.14 | 27 | 5 |
| 2/1/2011 | 13.77 | 28 | 7 |
| 3/1/2011 | 15.53 | 25 | 6 |
| 4/1/2011 | 13.35 | 25 | 4 |
| 5/1/2011 | 12.52 | 25 | 5 |
| 6/1/2011 | 14.42 | 24 | 5 |
| 7/1/2011 | 12.97 | 23 | 5 |
| 8/1/2011 | 14.42 | 25 | 4 |
| 9/1/2011 | 14.46 | 28 | 6 |
| 10/1/2011 | 14.86 | 26 | 6 |
| 11/1/2011 | 16.53 | 25 | 5 |
| 12/1/2011 | 14.91 | 23 | 5 |
| 1/1/2012 | 17.26 | 22 | 6 |
| 2/1/2012 | 15.64 | 22 | 5 |
| 3/1/2012 | 15.80 | 22 | 6 |
| 4/1/2012 | 16.36 | 19 | 6 |
| 5/1/2012 | 20.25 | 20 | 6 |
| 6/1/2012 | 14.45 | 23 | 6 |
| 7/1/2012 | 16.01 | 20 | 7 |
| 8/1/2012 | 17.22 | 20 | 6 |
| 9/1/2012 | 17.85 | 21 | 6 |
| 10/1/2012 | 16.82 | 22 | 5 |
| 11/1/2012 | 17.39 | 23 | 6 |
| 12/1/2012 | 15.97 | 19 | 5 |
| 1/1/2013 | 17.27 | 19 | 5 |
| 2/1/2013 | 19.54 | 18 | 5 |
| 3/1/2013 | 19.00 | 17 | 5 |
| 4/1/2013 | 17.29 | 16 | 7 |
| 5/1/2013 | 19.08 | 16 | 6 |
| 6/1/2013 | 18.52 | 18 | 6 |
| 7/1/2013 | 20.99 | 16 | 7 |
| 8/1/2013 | 14.97 | 17 | 5 |
| 9/1/2013 | 21.27 | 17 | 10 |
| 10/1/2013 | 21.79 | 17 | 8 |
| 11/1/2013 | 23.28 | 15 | 8 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.12 | 14 | 8 |
| 1/1/2014 | 21.27 | 14 | 8 |
| 2/1/2014 | 20.44 | 16 | 11 |
| 3/1/2014 | 23.11 | 14 | 9 |
| 4/1/2014 | 23.26 | 15 | 9 |
| 5/1/2014 | 23.89 | 12 | 10 |
| 6/1/2014 | 25.57 | 13 | 11 |
| 7/1/2014 | 25.00 | 13 | 10 |
| 8/1/2014 | 24.77 | 13 | 11 |
| 9/1/2014 | 22.54 | 14 | 9 |
| 10/1/2014 | 24.74 | 12 | 11 |
| 11/1/2014 | 24.26 | 12 | 10 |
| 12/1/2014 | 25.29 | 11 | 11 |
| 1/1/2015 | 25.18 | 13 | 11 |
| 2/1/2015 | 27.43 | 12 | 14 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.25 | 11 | 12 |
| 4/1/2015 | 26.18 | 11 | 12 |
| 5/1/2015 | 28.77 | 11 | 13 |
| 6/1/2015 | 23.59 | 10 | 12 |
| 7/1/2015 | 25.94 | 10 | 13 |
| 8/1/2015 | 27.61 | 14 | 14 |
| 9/1/2015 | 28.75 | 11 | 16 |
| 10/1/2015 | 27.71 | 12 | 13 |
| 11/1/2015 | 27.23 | 9 | 15 |
| 12/1/2015 | 28.40 | 11 | 15 |
| 1/1/2016 | 28.19 | 12 | 15 |
| 2/1/2016 | 26.44 | 11 | 12 |
| 3/1/2016 | 26.37 | 13 | 12 |
| 4/1/2016 | 28.14 | 11 | 12 |
| 5/1/2016 | 26.61 | 14 | 13 |
| 6/1/2016 | 28.57 | 11 | 15 |
| 7/1/2016 | 26.85 | 12 | 14 |
| 8/1/2016 | 29.52 | 11 | 15 |
| 9/1/2016 | 25.99 | 13 | 17 |
| 10/1/2016 | 28.66 | 11 | 15 |
| 11/1/2016 | 30.25 | 12 | 16 |
| 12/1/2016 | 29.41 | 12 | 12 |
| 1/1/2017 | 30.21 | 10 | 15 |
| 2/1/2017 | 30.50 | 12 | 17 |
| 3/1/2017 | 31.50 | 12 | 16 |
| 4/1/2017 | 32.04 | 10 | 16 |
| 5/1/2017 | 33.49 | 9 | 19 |
| 6/1/2017 | 29.57 | 10 | 15 |
| 7/1/2017 | 35.73 | 8 | 19 |
| 8/1/2017 | 30.44 | 9 | 19 |
| 9/1/2017 | 32.18 | 11 | 19 |
| 10/1/2017 | 35.63 | 10 | 20 |
| 11/1/2017 | 29.35 | 11 | 18 |
| 12/1/2017 | 31.43 | 8 | 19 |
| 1/1/2018 | 33.15 | 9 | 22 |
| 2/1/2018 | 32.54 | 11 | 22 |
| 3/1/2018 | 36.58 | 11 | 21 |
| 4/1/2018 | 33.92 | 8 | 22 |
| 5/1/2018 | 32.45 | 8 | 23 |
| 6/1/2018 | 35.61 | 8 | 21 |
| 7/1/2018 | 37.68 | 7 | 23 |
| 8/1/2018 | 37.41 | 7 | 25 |
Note: "Jobs hard to fill" series is the share of firms reporting that they have at least one hard-to-fill job opening. All data are monthly and extend through August 2018.
Source: National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Economic Trends.
Figure 9. Real-Time Assessments of the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Percent
| Period | FOMC | Blue Chip | SPF | CBO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009:Q1 | 4.90 | 5.50 | NA | 4.80 |
| 2009:Q2 | 4.90 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2009:Q3 | 4.90 | 5.80 | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| 2009:Q4 | 5.10 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2010:Q1 | 5.10 | 6.00 | NA | 5.00 |
| 2010:Q2 | 5.15 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2010:Q3 | 5.15 | 5.90 | 5.78 | 5.00 |
| 2010:Q4 | 5.50 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2011:Q1 | 5.50 | 5.60 | NA | 5.20 |
| 2011:Q2 | 5.40 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2011:Q3 | 5.40 | 6.00 | 6.00 | NA |
| 2011:Q4 | 5.60 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2012:Q1 | 5.60 | 5.80 | NA | 5.50 |
| 2012:Q2 | 5.60 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2012:Q3 | NA | 5.80 | 6.00 | 5.36 |
| 2012:Q4 | 5.60 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2013:Q1 | 5.60 | 5.60 | NA | 5.50 |
| 2013:Q2 | 5.60 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2013:Q3 | 5.50 | 5.60 | 6.00 | NA |
| 2013:Q4 | 5.50 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2014:Q1 | 5.40 | 5.30 | NA | 5.50 |
| 2014:Q2 | 5.35 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2014:Q3 | 5.35 | 5.40 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| 2014:Q4 | 5.35 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2015:Q1 | 5.10 | 5.10 | NA | 5.39 |
| 2015:Q2 | 5.10 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2015:Q3 | 5.05 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.06 |
| 2015:Q4 | 4.90 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2016:Q1 | 4.80 | 4.90 | NA | 4.90 |
| 2016:Q2 | 4.80 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2016:Q3 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.80 | NA |
| 2016:Q4 | 4.80 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2017:Q1 | 4.70 | 4.70 | NA | 4.74 |
| 2017:Q2 | 4.60 | NA | NA | 4.74 |
| 2017:Q3 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.50 | NA |
| 2017:Q4 | 4.60 | NA | NA | NA |
| 2018:Q1 | 4.50 | 4.50 | NA | NA |
| 2018:Q2 | 4.50 | NA | NA | 4.62 |
| 2018:Q3 | 4.50 | NA | 4.30 | 4.62 |
Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through September 2018, and are projections of longer-term normal. The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through March 2018, and are projections for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data are annual, extend through August 2018, and are projections of longer-run normal. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual, extend through August 2018, and are the natural rate projection for the current quarter at the time of the projection.
Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators; for SPF, Survey of Professional Forecasters (retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Real-Time Data Center); for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook) and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED).
Last Update:
October 02, 2018