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Figure 1: Real-Time Projections of Longer-Run Real Gross Domestic Product Growth

Percent

Date FOMC Blue Chip CBO
1/25/2012 2.50    
1/31/2012     2.4
3/10/2012   2.5  
4/25/2012 2.50    
6/20/2012 2.50    
8/22/2012     2.3
9/13/2012 2.50    
10/10/2012   2.5  
12/12/2012 2.30    
2/15/2013     2.2
3/10/2013   2.5  
3/20/2013 2.30    
6/19/2013 2.30    
9/18/2013 2.30    
10/10/2013   2.4  
12/18/2013 2.30    
2/4/2014     2.0
3/10/2014   2.4  
3/19/2014 2.30    
6/18/2014 2.30    
8/27/2014     2.0
9/17/2014 2.20    
10/10/2014   2.3  
12/17/2014 2.20    
1/26/2015     2.1
3/10/2015   2.3  
3/18/2015 2.15    
6/17/2015 2.15    
8/25/2015     2.1
9/17/2015 2.00    
10/10/2015   2.2  
12/16/2015 2.00    
1/25/2016     2.0
3/10/2016   2.1  
3/16/2016 2.00    
6/15/2016 2.00    
8/23/2016     1.9
9/21/2016 1.80    
10/10/2016   2.0  
12/14/2016 1.80    
1/24/2017     1.9
3/10/2017   2.0  
3/15/2017 1.80    
6/14/2017 1.80    
6/29/2017     1.9
9/20/2017 1.80    
10/10/2017   2.1  
12/13/2017 1.80    
3/10/2018   2.0  
3/21/2018 1.80    
4/9/2018     1.8
6/13/2018 1.80    
8/13/2018     1.8
9/26/2018 1.80    
10/10/2018   2.0  
12/19/2018 1.90    
1/28/2019     1.8
3/10/2019   2.0  
3/20/2019 1.90    
6/19/2019 1.90    
8/21/2019     1.8
9/18/2019 1.90    
10/10/2019   2.0  
12/11/2019 1.90    
1/28/2020     1.7
3/10/2020   2.0  
6/10/2020 1.80    
7/2/2020     1.8

Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through June 2020, and are median projections of longer-term normal; for 2015:Q1 and 2015:Q2, the data are central tendency midpoints. The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through March 2020, and are consensus projections for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual, extend through July 2020, and are baseline projections for the calendar year 10 years ahead.

Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook, 10-Year Economic Projections).

Figure 2: Real-Time Projections of Longer-Run Federal Funds Rate

Percent

Date FOMC Blue Chip CBO
1/25/2012 4.25    
1/31/2012     3.8
4/25/2012 4.25    
6/1/2012   3.6  
6/20/2012 4.25    
8/22/2012     3.8
9/13/2012 4.00    
10/10/2012   3.8  
12/12/2012 4.00    
2/15/2013     4.0
3/20/2013 4.00    
6/1/2013   3.8  
6/19/2013 4.00    
9/18/2013 4.00    
10/10/2013   3.7  
12/18/2013 4.00    
2/4/2014     3.6
3/19/2014 4.00    
6/1/2014   3.8  
6/18/2014 3.75    
8/27/2014     3.5
9/17/2014 3.75    
10/10/2014   3.6  
12/17/2014 3.75    
1/26/2015     3.4
3/18/2015 3.75    
6/1/2015   3.5  
6/17/2015 3.75    
8/25/2015     3.4
9/17/2015 3.50    
10/10/2015   3.3  
12/16/2015 3.50    
1/25/2016     3.2
3/16/2016 3.25    
6/1/2016   3.2  
6/15/2016 3.00    
8/23/2016     2.8
9/21/2016 2.88    
10/10/2016   3.0  
12/14/2016 3.00    
1/24/2017     2.8
3/15/2017 3.00    
6/1/2017   3.0  
6/14/2017 3.00    
6/29/2017     2.8
9/20/2017 2.75    
10/10/2017   3.0  
12/13/2017 2.75    
3/21/2018 2.88    
4/9/2018     2.8
6/1/2018   3.0  
6/13/2018 2.88    
8/13/2018     2.8
9/26/2018 3.00    
10/10/2018   3.1  
12/19/2018 2.75    
1/28/2019     2.8
3/20/2019 2.75    
6/1/2019   2.8  
6/19/2019 2.50    
8/21/2019     2.5
9/18/2019 2.50    
10/10/2019   2.4  
12/11/2019 2.50    
1/28/2020     2.4
6/1/2020   2.3  
6/10/2020 2.50    
7/2/2020     2.1

Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through June 2020, and are median projections of longer-term normal (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point). The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through June 2020, and are consensus estimates for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual, extend through July 2020, and are baseline projections of the three-month Treasury bill rate for the calendar year 10 years ahead.

Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook, 10-Year Economic Projections).

Figure 3: Evolution of Real-Time Projections for Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation

Percent

FOMC Meeting Date or Survey Vintage FOMC Survey of Professional Forecasters
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1/25/2012 1.50 1.80 1.90                              
2/10/2012                   1.8 2.0 2.1            
4/25/2012 2.00 1.90 2.00                              
5/11/2012                   2.1 2.0 2.2            
6/20/2012 1.40 1.80 1.90                              
8/10/2012                   1.7 2.0 2.2            
9/13/2012 1.80 1.80 2.00 2.00                            
12/12/2012 1.60 1.60 1.80 2.00                            
2/15/2013                     1.8 2.0 2.0          
3/20/2013   1.50 1.80 2.00                            
5/10/2013                     1.4 2.0 2.0          
6/19/2013   1.00 1.60 1.90                            
8/16/2013                     1.2 1.8 2.0          
9/18/2013   1.10 1.60 1.90 2.00                          
12/18/2013   0.90 1.40 1.70 2.00                          
2/14/2014                       1.6 1.8 2.0        
3/19/2014     1.50 1.80 2.00                          
5/16/2014                       1.6 1.9 1.9        
6/18/2014     1.60 1.80 2.00                          
8/15/2014                       1.8 2.0 2.0        
9/17/2014     1.60 1.80 2.00 2.00                        
12/17/2014     1.20 1.20 1.80 2.00                        
2/13/2015                         1.1 1.9 2.0      
3/18/2015       0.70 1.80 1.95                        
5/15/2015                         0.8 1.9 1.9      
6/17/2015       0.70 1.75 1.95                        
8/14/2015                         0.8 1.8 1.9      
9/17/2015       0.40 1.70 1.90 2.00                      
12/16/2015       0.40 1.60 1.90 2.00                      
2/12/2016                           1.3 1.9 2.0    
3/16/2016         1.20 1.90 2.00                      
5/13/2016                           1.4 1.9 2.0    
6/15/2016         1.40 1.90 2.00                      
8/12/2016                           1.4 1.9 2.0    
9/21/2016         1.30 1.90 2.00 2.00                    
12/14/2016         1.50 1.90 2.00 2.00                    
2/10/2017                             2.0 2.0 2.0  
3/15/2017           1.90 2.00 2.00                    
5/12/2017                             1.8 2.0 2.0  
6/14/2017           1.60 2.00 2.00                    
8/11/2017                             1.5 1.9 2.0  
9/20/2017           1.60 1.90 2.00 2.00                  
12/13/2017           1.70 1.90 2.00 2.00                  
2/9/2018                               1.9 2.0 2.0
3/21/2018             1.90 2.00 2.10                  
5/11/2018                               2.1 2.1 2.1
6/13/2018             2.10 2.10 2.10                  
8/10/2018                               2.1 2.1 2.1
9/26/2018             2.10 2.00 2.10                  
12/19/2018             1.90 1.90 2.10                  
3/20/2019               1.80 2.00                  
3/22/2019                                 1.9 2.0
5/10/2019                                 1.7 1.9
6/19/2019               1.50 1.90                  
8/9/2019                                 1.6 1.9
9/18/2019               1.50 1.90                  
12/11/2019               1.50 1.90                  
2/14/2020                                   1.8
5/15/2020                                   0.8
6/10/2020                 0.80                  
8/14/2020                                   0.6

Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data, represented by the solid lines, are median projections published quarterly; the latest data vintage is June 2020. For 2015:Q1 and 2015:Q2, the data are central tendency midpoints. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data, represented by the dashed lines, are median projections published quarterly; the latest data vintage corresponds to 2020:Q3.

Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for SPF, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Figure 4: Real-Time Projections of Longer-Run Unemployment Rate

Percent

Date FOMC Blue Chip CBO
1/25/2012 5.50    
1/31/2012     5.5
3/10/2012   5.80  
4/25/2012 5.50    
6/20/2012 5.50    
8/22/2012     5.4
9/13/2012 5.50    
10/10/2012   5.80  
12/12/2012 5.50    
2/15/2013     5.5
3/10/2013   5.60  
3/20/2013 5.50    
6/19/2013 5.40    
9/18/2013 5.40    
10/10/2013   5.56  
12/18/2013 5.40    
2/4/2014     5.5
3/10/2014   5.33  
3/19/2014 5.40    
6/18/2014 5.30    
8/27/2014     5.5
9/17/2014 5.20    
10/10/2014   5.40  
12/17/2014 5.20    
1/26/2015     5.4
3/10/2015   5.12  
3/18/2015 5.10    
6/17/2015 5.10    
8/25/2015     5.1
9/17/2015 4.90    
10/10/2015   5.00  
12/16/2015 4.90    
1/25/2016     4.8
3/10/2016   4.86  
3/16/2016 4.80    
6/15/2016 4.80    
8/23/2016     4.7
9/21/2016 4.80    
10/10/2016   4.84  
12/14/2016 4.80    
1/24/2017     4.7
3/10/2017   4.74  
3/15/2017 4.70    
6/14/2017 4.60    
6/29/2017     4.7
9/20/2017 4.60    
10/10/2017   4.63  
12/13/2017 4.60    
3/10/2018   4.55  
3/21/2018 4.50    
4/9/2018     4.6
6/13/2018 4.50    
8/13/2018     4.6
9/26/2018 4.50    
10/10/2018   4.40  
12/19/2018 4.40    
1/28/2019     4.6
3/10/2019   4.32  
3/20/2019 4.30    
6/19/2019 4.20    
8/21/2019     4.6
9/18/2019 4.20    
10/10/2019   4.09  
12/11/2019 4.10    
1/28/2020     4.4
3/10/2020   4.15  
6/10/2020 4.10    
7/2/2020     4.4

Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through June 2020, and are median projections of longer-term normal; for 2015:Q1 and 2015:Q2, the data are central tendency midpoints. The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through March 2020, and are consensus projections for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual, extend through July 2020, and correspond to the baseline estimate of the underlying long-term rate of unemployment for the current quarter at the time of the projection.

Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook, 10-Year Economic Projections).

Last Update: August 27, 2020