Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Figure 1: Real-Time Projections of Longer-Run Real Gross Domestic Product Growth
Percent
Date | FOMC | Blue Chip | CBO |
---|---|---|---|
1/25/2012 | 2.50 | ||
1/31/2012 | 2.4 | ||
3/10/2012 | 2.5 | ||
4/25/2012 | 2.50 | ||
6/20/2012 | 2.50 | ||
8/22/2012 | 2.3 | ||
9/13/2012 | 2.50 | ||
10/10/2012 | 2.5 | ||
12/12/2012 | 2.30 | ||
2/15/2013 | 2.2 | ||
3/10/2013 | 2.5 | ||
3/20/2013 | 2.30 | ||
6/19/2013 | 2.30 | ||
9/18/2013 | 2.30 | ||
10/10/2013 | 2.4 | ||
12/18/2013 | 2.30 | ||
2/4/2014 | 2.0 | ||
3/10/2014 | 2.4 | ||
3/19/2014 | 2.30 | ||
6/18/2014 | 2.30 | ||
8/27/2014 | 2.0 | ||
9/17/2014 | 2.20 | ||
10/10/2014 | 2.3 | ||
12/17/2014 | 2.20 | ||
1/26/2015 | 2.1 | ||
3/10/2015 | 2.3 | ||
3/18/2015 | 2.15 | ||
6/17/2015 | 2.15 | ||
8/25/2015 | 2.1 | ||
9/17/2015 | 2.00 | ||
10/10/2015 | 2.2 | ||
12/16/2015 | 2.00 | ||
1/25/2016 | 2.0 | ||
3/10/2016 | 2.1 | ||
3/16/2016 | 2.00 | ||
6/15/2016 | 2.00 | ||
8/23/2016 | 1.9 | ||
9/21/2016 | 1.80 | ||
10/10/2016 | 2.0 | ||
12/14/2016 | 1.80 | ||
1/24/2017 | 1.9 | ||
3/10/2017 | 2.0 | ||
3/15/2017 | 1.80 | ||
6/14/2017 | 1.80 | ||
6/29/2017 | 1.9 | ||
9/20/2017 | 1.80 | ||
10/10/2017 | 2.1 | ||
12/13/2017 | 1.80 | ||
3/10/2018 | 2.0 | ||
3/21/2018 | 1.80 | ||
4/9/2018 | 1.8 | ||
6/13/2018 | 1.80 | ||
8/13/2018 | 1.8 | ||
9/26/2018 | 1.80 | ||
10/10/2018 | 2.0 | ||
12/19/2018 | 1.90 | ||
1/28/2019 | 1.8 | ||
3/10/2019 | 2.0 | ||
3/20/2019 | 1.90 | ||
6/19/2019 | 1.90 | ||
8/21/2019 | 1.8 | ||
9/18/2019 | 1.90 | ||
10/10/2019 | 2.0 | ||
12/11/2019 | 1.90 | ||
1/28/2020 | 1.7 | ||
3/10/2020 | 2.0 | ||
6/10/2020 | 1.80 | ||
7/2/2020 | 1.8 |
Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through June 2020, and are median projections of longer-term normal; for 2015:Q1 and 2015:Q2, the data are central tendency midpoints. The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through March 2020, and are consensus projections for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual, extend through July 2020, and are baseline projections for the calendar year 10 years ahead.
Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook, 10-Year Economic Projections).
Figure 2: Real-Time Projections of Longer-Run Federal Funds Rate
Percent
Date | FOMC | Blue Chip | CBO |
---|---|---|---|
1/25/2012 | 4.25 | ||
1/31/2012 | 3.8 | ||
4/25/2012 | 4.25 | ||
6/1/2012 | 3.6 | ||
6/20/2012 | 4.25 | ||
8/22/2012 | 3.8 | ||
9/13/2012 | 4.00 | ||
10/10/2012 | 3.8 | ||
12/12/2012 | 4.00 | ||
2/15/2013 | 4.0 | ||
3/20/2013 | 4.00 | ||
6/1/2013 | 3.8 | ||
6/19/2013 | 4.00 | ||
9/18/2013 | 4.00 | ||
10/10/2013 | 3.7 | ||
12/18/2013 | 4.00 | ||
2/4/2014 | 3.6 | ||
3/19/2014 | 4.00 | ||
6/1/2014 | 3.8 | ||
6/18/2014 | 3.75 | ||
8/27/2014 | 3.5 | ||
9/17/2014 | 3.75 | ||
10/10/2014 | 3.6 | ||
12/17/2014 | 3.75 | ||
1/26/2015 | 3.4 | ||
3/18/2015 | 3.75 | ||
6/1/2015 | 3.5 | ||
6/17/2015 | 3.75 | ||
8/25/2015 | 3.4 | ||
9/17/2015 | 3.50 | ||
10/10/2015 | 3.3 | ||
12/16/2015 | 3.50 | ||
1/25/2016 | 3.2 | ||
3/16/2016 | 3.25 | ||
6/1/2016 | 3.2 | ||
6/15/2016 | 3.00 | ||
8/23/2016 | 2.8 | ||
9/21/2016 | 2.88 | ||
10/10/2016 | 3.0 | ||
12/14/2016 | 3.00 | ||
1/24/2017 | 2.8 | ||
3/15/2017 | 3.00 | ||
6/1/2017 | 3.0 | ||
6/14/2017 | 3.00 | ||
6/29/2017 | 2.8 | ||
9/20/2017 | 2.75 | ||
10/10/2017 | 3.0 | ||
12/13/2017 | 2.75 | ||
3/21/2018 | 2.88 | ||
4/9/2018 | 2.8 | ||
6/1/2018 | 3.0 | ||
6/13/2018 | 2.88 | ||
8/13/2018 | 2.8 | ||
9/26/2018 | 3.00 | ||
10/10/2018 | 3.1 | ||
12/19/2018 | 2.75 | ||
1/28/2019 | 2.8 | ||
3/20/2019 | 2.75 | ||
6/1/2019 | 2.8 | ||
6/19/2019 | 2.50 | ||
8/21/2019 | 2.5 | ||
9/18/2019 | 2.50 | ||
10/10/2019 | 2.4 | ||
12/11/2019 | 2.50 | ||
1/28/2020 | 2.4 | ||
6/1/2020 | 2.3 | ||
6/10/2020 | 2.50 | ||
7/2/2020 | 2.1 |
Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through June 2020, and are median projections of longer-term normal (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point). The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through June 2020, and are consensus estimates for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual, extend through July 2020, and are baseline projections of the three-month Treasury bill rate for the calendar year 10 years ahead.
Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook, 10-Year Economic Projections).
Figure 3: Evolution of Real-Time Projections for Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation
Percent
FOMC Meeting Date or Survey Vintage | FOMC | Survey of Professional Forecasters | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
1/25/2012 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |||||||||||||||
2/10/2012 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||
4/25/2012 | 2.00 | 1.90 | 2.00 | |||||||||||||||
5/11/2012 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||
6/20/2012 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |||||||||||||||
8/10/2012 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||
9/13/2012 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
12/12/2012 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
2/15/2013 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
3/20/2013 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |||||||||||||||
5/10/2013 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
6/19/2013 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 1.90 | |||||||||||||||
8/16/2013 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
9/18/2013 | 1.10 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
12/18/2013 | 0.90 | 1.40 | 1.70 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
2/14/2014 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
3/19/2014 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |||||||||||||||
5/16/2014 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
6/18/2014 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |||||||||||||||
8/15/2014 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
9/17/2014 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
12/17/2014 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
2/13/2015 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
3/18/2015 | 0.70 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |||||||||||||||
5/15/2015 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
6/17/2015 | 0.70 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |||||||||||||||
8/14/2015 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
9/17/2015 | 0.40 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
12/16/2015 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
2/12/2016 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
3/16/2016 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 2.00 | |||||||||||||||
5/13/2016 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
6/15/2016 | 1.40 | 1.90 | 2.00 | |||||||||||||||
8/12/2016 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
9/21/2016 | 1.30 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
12/14/2016 | 1.50 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
2/10/2017 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
3/15/2017 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.00 | |||||||||||||||
5/12/2017 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
6/14/2017 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 2.00 | |||||||||||||||
8/11/2017 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
9/20/2017 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
12/13/2017 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||
2/9/2018 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
3/21/2018 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.10 | |||||||||||||||
5/11/2018 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||
6/13/2018 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 | |||||||||||||||
8/10/2018 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||
9/26/2018 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.10 | |||||||||||||||
12/19/2018 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2.10 | |||||||||||||||
3/20/2019 | 1.80 | 2.00 | ||||||||||||||||
3/22/2019 | 1.9 | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||
5/10/2019 | 1.7 | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||
6/19/2019 | 1.50 | 1.90 | ||||||||||||||||
8/9/2019 | 1.6 | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||
9/18/2019 | 1.50 | 1.90 | ||||||||||||||||
12/11/2019 | 1.50 | 1.90 | ||||||||||||||||
2/14/2020 | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||
5/15/2020 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||
6/10/2020 | 0.80 | |||||||||||||||||
8/14/2020 | 0.6 |
Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data, represented by the solid lines, are median projections published quarterly; the latest data vintage is June 2020. For 2015:Q1 and 2015:Q2, the data are central tendency midpoints. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data, represented by the dashed lines, are median projections published quarterly; the latest data vintage corresponds to 2020:Q3.
Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for SPF, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Figure 4: Real-Time Projections of Longer-Run Unemployment Rate
Percent
Date | FOMC | Blue Chip | CBO |
---|---|---|---|
1/25/2012 | 5.50 | ||
1/31/2012 | 5.5 | ||
3/10/2012 | 5.80 | ||
4/25/2012 | 5.50 | ||
6/20/2012 | 5.50 | ||
8/22/2012 | 5.4 | ||
9/13/2012 | 5.50 | ||
10/10/2012 | 5.80 | ||
12/12/2012 | 5.50 | ||
2/15/2013 | 5.5 | ||
3/10/2013 | 5.60 | ||
3/20/2013 | 5.50 | ||
6/19/2013 | 5.40 | ||
9/18/2013 | 5.40 | ||
10/10/2013 | 5.56 | ||
12/18/2013 | 5.40 | ||
2/4/2014 | 5.5 | ||
3/10/2014 | 5.33 | ||
3/19/2014 | 5.40 | ||
6/18/2014 | 5.30 | ||
8/27/2014 | 5.5 | ||
9/17/2014 | 5.20 | ||
10/10/2014 | 5.40 | ||
12/17/2014 | 5.20 | ||
1/26/2015 | 5.4 | ||
3/10/2015 | 5.12 | ||
3/18/2015 | 5.10 | ||
6/17/2015 | 5.10 | ||
8/25/2015 | 5.1 | ||
9/17/2015 | 4.90 | ||
10/10/2015 | 5.00 | ||
12/16/2015 | 4.90 | ||
1/25/2016 | 4.8 | ||
3/10/2016 | 4.86 | ||
3/16/2016 | 4.80 | ||
6/15/2016 | 4.80 | ||
8/23/2016 | 4.7 | ||
9/21/2016 | 4.80 | ||
10/10/2016 | 4.84 | ||
12/14/2016 | 4.80 | ||
1/24/2017 | 4.7 | ||
3/10/2017 | 4.74 | ||
3/15/2017 | 4.70 | ||
6/14/2017 | 4.60 | ||
6/29/2017 | 4.7 | ||
9/20/2017 | 4.60 | ||
10/10/2017 | 4.63 | ||
12/13/2017 | 4.60 | ||
3/10/2018 | 4.55 | ||
3/21/2018 | 4.50 | ||
4/9/2018 | 4.6 | ||
6/13/2018 | 4.50 | ||
8/13/2018 | 4.6 | ||
9/26/2018 | 4.50 | ||
10/10/2018 | 4.40 | ||
12/19/2018 | 4.40 | ||
1/28/2019 | 4.6 | ||
3/10/2019 | 4.32 | ||
3/20/2019 | 4.30 | ||
6/19/2019 | 4.20 | ||
8/21/2019 | 4.6 | ||
9/18/2019 | 4.20 | ||
10/10/2019 | 4.09 | ||
12/11/2019 | 4.10 | ||
1/28/2020 | 4.4 | ||
3/10/2020 | 4.15 | ||
6/10/2020 | 4.10 | ||
7/2/2020 | 4.4 |
Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through June 2020, and are median projections of longer-term normal; for 2015:Q1 and 2015:Q2, the data are central tendency midpoints. The Blue Chip data are biannual, extend through March 2020, and are consensus projections for 6 to 10 years in the future. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data are biannual, extend through July 2020, and correspond to the baseline estimate of the underlying long-term rate of unemployment for the current quarter at the time of the projection.
Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Economic Indicators; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook, 10-Year Economic Projections).