Accessible Version

Accessible Version

 

Exhibit 1: Predicted and Actual Recovery in U.S. Real GDP Index
NBER trough = 100
Period Actual Prediction
3 years before trough 101.95  
11 quarters before trough 101.96  
10 quarters before trough 102.66  
9 quarters before trough 102.8  
2 years before trough 103.72  
7 quarters before trough 104.48  
6 quarters before trough 104.92  
5 quarters before trough 104.46  
1 year before trough 104.8  
3 quarters before trough 103.83  
2 quarters before trough 101.44  
1 quarter before trough 100.08  
Trough 100 100
1 quarter into recovery 100.36  
2 quarters into recovery 101.35  
3 quarters into recovery 101.94  
1 year into recovery 102.51 105.03
5 quarters into recovery 103.17  
6 quarters into recovery 103.78  
7 quarters into recovery 103.8  
2 years into recovery 104.44 107.63
9 quarters into recovery 104.77  
10 quarters into recovery 105.83  
11 quarters into recovery 106.34  
3 years into recovery 106.67 109.84
13 quarters into recovery 107.49  
15 quarters into recovery   112.42

Note: Prediction based on depth and duration of 2007-09 recession in the United States using a regression model for advanced economies since the 1970s. Last observation for actual real GDP is 2012:Q3.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Natioanl Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); and Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Exhibit 2: Nonfarm Payroll Employment in Selected Recessions and Recoveries Index,
NBER peak = 100
Quarters since NBER peak 1973-75 recession 1981-82 recession 1990-91 recession 2001 recession 2007-09 recession
0 100 100 100 100 100
1 99.82 99.24 99.35 99.51 99.84
2 99.56 98.26 98.64 98.99 99.33
3 99.08 97.44 97.94 98.21 98.67
4 97.95 96.42 97.62 97.69 97.38
5 95.94 95.56 97.31 97.4 95.67
6 94.89 95.38 97.01 97.14 94.31
7 94.89 95.69 96.92 96.96 93.58
8 95.08 96.22 96.82 96.62 93.19
9 95.67 97.06 96.84 96.24 93.08
10 95.69 97.85 97.04 96.06 93.34
11 95.53 98.47 97.21 96.07 93.17
12 95.47 98.98 97.45 96.15 93.25
13 95.78 99.41 97.75 96.46 93.37
14 96.37 99.67 98.12 96.49 93.66
15 96.91 99.96 98.64 96.7 93.76
16 97.35 100.12 99.11 96.82 93.95
17 97.7 100.29 99.51 97.13 94.31
18 98.73 100.3 99.87 97.46 94.33
19 99.04 100.25 99.9 97.58 94.42
20 99.33 100.33 99.97 97.94 94.66

Note: Payroll employment adjusted for trend employment growth

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Congressional Budget Office; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); and Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Exhibit 3: Estimated Effect of Discretionary Fiscal Policy on the Economy during Recoveries Average Contribution to GDP growth
Percentage points (annual rate)
Period Recovery from 1981-82 recession Recovery from 2001 recession Average recovery from postwar recessions Current recovery
4 quarters since recovery 0.80 1.00 0.54 0.60
8 quarters since recovery 0.90 0.88 0.38 -0.09
12 quarters since recovery 1.03 0.69 0.44 -0.19

Note: Average recovery from postwar recessions excludes recovery after 2007-09 recession; because of data limitations, average also excludes recovery after 1948-49 recession.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations

Exhibit 4: Average Contribution of Residential Investment to Real GDP Growth during Recoveries
Percentage points (annual rate)
Period Recovery from 1981-82 recession Recovery from 2001 recession Average recovery from postwar recessions Current recovery
4 quarters since recovery 1.64 0.34 0.92 0.12
8 quarters since recovery 0.91 0.45 0.43 -0.03
12 quarters since recovery 0.67 0.42 0.41 0.06

Note: Average recovery from postwar recessions excludes recovery after 2007-09 recession.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Exhibit 5: Nominal Income Expectations
Month Index
Jan 1978 44
Feb 1978 40
Mar 1978 45
Apr 1978 51
May 1978 56
Jun 1978 54
Jul 1978 55
Aug 1978 53
Sep 1978 52
Oct 1978 48
Nov 1978 47
Dec 1978 48
Jan 1979 51
Feb 1979 52
Mar 1979 52
Apr 1979 52
May 1979 52
Jun 1979 52
Jul 1979 54
Aug 1979 54
Sep 1979 53
Oct 1979 53
Nov 1979 52
Dec 1979 52
Jan 1980 54
Feb 1980 54
Mar 1980 55
Apr 1980 55
May 1980 50
Jun 1980 54
Jul 1980 41
Aug 1980 55
Sep 1980 56
Oct 1980 59
Nov 1980 59
Dec 1980 52
Jan 1981 48
Feb 1981 50
Mar 1981 52
Apr 1981 53
May 1981 62
Jun 1981 54
Jul 1981 47
Aug 1981 52
Sep 1981 48
Oct 1981 50
Nov 1981 42
Dec 1981 47
Jan 1982 47
Feb 1982 47
Mar 1982 36
Apr 1982 39
May 1982 45
Jun 1982 44
Jul 1982 40
Aug 1982 43
Sep 1982 43
Oct 1982 46
Nov 1982 42
Dec 1982 41
Jan 1983 37
Feb 1983 36
Mar 1983 38
Apr 1983 53
May 1983 45
Jun 1983 45
Jul 1983 44
Aug 1983 46
Sep 1983 45
Oct 1983 45
Nov 1983 52
Dec 1983 48
Jan 1984 51
Feb 1984 54
Mar 1984 59
Apr 1984 47
May 1984 51
Jun 1984 51
Jul 1984 53
Aug 1984 52
Sep 1984 53
Oct 1984 49
Nov 1984 49
Dec 1984 46
Jan 1985 40
Feb 1985 41
Mar 1985 40
Apr 1985 41
May 1985 44
Jun 1985 45
Jul 1985 38
Aug 1985 45
Sep 1985 43
Oct 1985 42
Nov 1985 44
Dec 1985 49
Jan 1986 43
Feb 1986 48
Mar 1986 42
Apr 1986 44
May 1986 45
Jun 1986 45
Jul 1986 50
Aug 1986 49
Sep 1986 47
Oct 1986 49
Nov 1986 52
Dec 1986 50
Jan 1987 50
Feb 1987 45
Mar 1987 42
Apr 1987 47
May 1987 43
Jun 1987 50
Jul 1987 47
Aug 1987 53
Sep 1987 46
Oct 1987 47
Nov 1987 51
Dec 1987 39
Jan 1988 52
Feb 1988 51
Mar 1988 51
Apr 1988 45
May 1988 45
Jun 1988 44
Jul 1988 53
Aug 1988 56
Sep 1988 54
Oct 1988 48
Nov 1988 56
Dec 1988 51
Jan 1989 47
Feb 1989 55
Mar 1989 45
Apr 1989 51
May 1989 49
Jun 1989 48
Jul 1989 48
Aug 1989 50
Sep 1989 43
Oct 1989 49
Nov 1989 63
Dec 1989 49
Jan 1990 51
Feb 1990 47
Mar 1990 45
Apr 1990 58
May 1990 54
Jun 1990 45
Jul 1990 55
Aug 1990 48
Sep 1990 43
Oct 1990 39
Nov 1990 42
Dec 1990 41
Jan 1991 46
Feb 1991 43
Mar 1991 46
Apr 1991 44
May 1991 39
Jun 1991 40
Jul 1991 40
Aug 1991 44
Sep 1991 53
Oct 1991 48
Nov 1991 43
Dec 1991 39
Jan 1992 35
Feb 1992 39
Mar 1992 36
Apr 1992 47
May 1992 41
Jun 1992 46
Jul 1992 39
Aug 1992 42
Sep 1992 42
Oct 1992 44
Nov 1992 51
Dec 1992 54
Jan 1993 53
Feb 1993 42
Mar 1993 39
Apr 1993 40
May 1993 42
Jun 1993 36
Jul 1993 35
Aug 1993 39
Sep 1993 45
Oct 1993 44
Nov 1993 46
Dec 1993 48
Jan 1994 39
Feb 1994 48
Mar 1994 40
Apr 1994 49
May 1994 38
Jun 1994 45
Jul 1994 41
Aug 1994 47
Sep 1994 49
Oct 1994 49
Nov 1994 45
Dec 1994 51
Jan 1995 52
Feb 1995 50
Mar 1995 49
Apr 1995 45
May 1995 48
Jun 1995 48
Jul 1995 47
Aug 1995 48
Sep 1995 40
Oct 1995 45
Nov 1995 49
Dec 1995 47
Jan 1996 50
Feb 1996 42
Mar 1996 53
Apr 1996 45
May 1996 46
Jun 1996 48
Jul 1996 47
Aug 1996 48
Sep 1996 57
Oct 1996 51
Nov 1996 50
Dec 1996 56
Jan 1997 51
Feb 1997 54
Mar 1997 48
Apr 1997 52
May 1997 52
Jun 1997 52
Jul 1997 54
Aug 1997 51
Sep 1997 50
Oct 1997 54
Nov 1997 61
Dec 1997 54
Jan 1998 55
Feb 1998 61
Mar 1998 54
Apr 1998 53
May 1998 52
Jun 1998 55
Jul 1998 54
Aug 1998 53
Sep 1998 54
Oct 1998 52
Nov 1998 58
Dec 1998 58
Jan 1999 50
Feb 1999 55
Mar 1999 53
Apr 1999 54
May 1999 57
Jun 1999 59
Jul 1999 59
Aug 1999 61
Sep 1999 57
Oct 1999 60
Nov 1999 58
Dec 1999 57
Jan 2000 56
Feb 2000 59
Mar 2000 57
Apr 2000 56
May 2000 58
Jun 2000 59
Jul 2000 53
Aug 2000 57
Sep 2000 59
Oct 2000 55
Nov 2000 61
Dec 2000 55
Jan 2001 55
Feb 2001 53
Mar 2001 54
Apr 2001 45
May 2001 53
Jun 2001 48
Jul 2001 46
Aug 2001 50
Sep 2001 44
Oct 2001 43
Nov 2001 45
Dec 2001 50
Jan 2002 48
Feb 2002 55
Mar 2002 44
Apr 2002 53
May 2002 49
Jun 2002 49
Jul 2002 52
Aug 2002 47
Sep 2002 53
Oct 2002 45
Nov 2002 49
Dec 2002 47
Jan 2003 44
Feb 2003 46
Mar 2003 45
Apr 2003 46
May 2003 45
Jun 2003 47
Jul 2003 50
Aug 2003 43
Sep 2003 52
Oct 2003 49
Nov 2003 50
Dec 2003 52
Jan 2004 51
Feb 2004 49
Mar 2004 56
Apr 2004 42
May 2004 51
Jun 2004 52
Jul 2004 52
Aug 2004 54
Sep 2004 50
Oct 2004 48
Nov 2004 53
Dec 2004 57
Jan 2005 60
Feb 2005 49
Mar 2005 50
Apr 2005 45
May 2005 50
Jun 2005 47
Jul 2005 51
Aug 2005 45
Sep 2005 45
Oct 2005 49
Nov 2005 48
Dec 2005 58
Jan 2006 50
Feb 2006 45
Mar 2006 46
Apr 2006 53
May 2006 45
Jun 2006 48
Jul 2006 43
Aug 2006 51
Sep 2006 47
Oct 2006 56
Nov 2006 51
Dec 2006 49
Jan 2007 56
Feb 2007 51
Mar 2007 52
Apr 2007 52
May 2007 47
Jun 2007 45
Jul 2007 50
Aug 2007 47
Sep 2007 48
Oct 2007 49
Nov 2007 48
Dec 2007 50
Jan 2008 47
Feb 2008 39
Mar 2008 49
Apr 2008 33
May 2008 37
Jun 2008 37
Jul 2008 35
Aug 2008 41
Sep 2008 50
Oct 2008 32
Nov 2008 30
Dec 2008 26
Jan 2009 20
Feb 2009 21
Mar 2009 10
Apr 2009 17
May 2009 10
Jun 2009 20
Jul 2009 13
Aug 2009 21
Sep 2009 12
Oct 2009 18
Nov 2009 18
Dec 2009 24
Jan 2010 19
Feb 2010 16
Mar 2010 18
Apr 2010 19
May 2010 19
Jun 2010 24
Jul 2010 17
Aug 2010 22
Sep 2010 25
Oct 2010 21
Nov 2010 22
Dec 2010 27
Jan 2011 17
Feb 2011 17
Mar 2011 12
Apr 2011 19
May 2011 20
Jun 2011 17
Jul 2011 17
Aug 2011 12
Sep 2011 14
Oct 2011 15
Nov 2011 23
Dec 2011 25
Jan 2012 27
Feb 2012 23
Mar 2012 27
Apr 2012 27
May 2012 24
Jun 2012 21
Jul 2012 23
Aug 2012 27
Sep 2012 26
Oct 2012 35
Nov 2012 30
Dec 2012 26
Jan 2013 25

Note: Percent of respondents expecting higher income during the next 12 months than the past year, minus the percent of respondents expecting lower income in the next 12 months than the past year. There were National Bureau of Economic Research defined recessions from 1980Q1 to 1980Q3, from 1981Q3 to 1982Q4, from 1990Q3 to 1991Q1, from 2001Q1 to 2001Q4, and from 2007Q4 to 2009Q2.

Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Exhibit 6: Persons Working Part Time for Economic Reasons
Percent of Current Population Survey Employment
Date Percent
May-55 3.35
Jun-55 3.21
Jul-55 3.40
Aug-55 3.51
Sep-55 3.39
Oct-55 3.32
Nov-55 3.48
Dec-55 3.37
Jan-56 3.37
Feb-56 3.29
Mar-56 3.12
Apr-56 3.22
May-56 3.44
Jun-56 3.65
Jul-56 3.58
Aug-56 3.68
Sep-56 3.74
Oct-56 3.78
Nov-56 3.78
Dec-56 3.61
Jan-57 3.59
Feb-57 3.78
Mar-57 3.78
Apr-57 3.56
May-57 3.71
Jun-57 3.86
Jul-57 3.79
Aug-57 3.81
Sep-57 3.87
Oct-57 4.12
Nov-57 4.15
Dec-57 4.24
Jan-58 5.21
Feb-58 5.46
Mar-58 6.33
Apr-58 5.98
May-58 5.73
Jun-58 5.32
Jul-58 4.71
Aug-58 5.04
Sep-58 5.01
Oct-58 4.68
Nov-58 4.42
Dec-58 4.45
Jan-59 4.30
Feb-59 3.95
Mar-59 4.43
Apr-59 4.00
May-59 3.64
Jun-59 3.92
Jul-59 4.10
Aug-59 4.01
Sep-59 3.87
Oct-59 4.21
Nov-59 4.34
Dec-59 4.18
Jan-60 3.84
Feb-60 3.91
Mar-60 3.72
Apr-60 4.20
May-60 4.14
Jun-60 4.39
Jul-60 4.29
Aug-60 4.45
Sep-60 4.63
Oct-60 4.68
Nov-60 4.72
Dec-60 5.02
Jan-61 5.21
Feb-61 5.43
Mar-61 5.05
Apr-61 5.04
May-61 4.99
Jun-61 4.77
Jul-61 4.63
Aug-61 4.79
Sep-61 4.54
Oct-61 4.42
Nov-61 4.35
Dec-61 4.01
Jan-62 3.62
Feb-62 3.95
Mar-62 4.19
Apr-62 3.91
May-62 4.13
Jun-62 4.02
Jul-62 4.15
Aug-62 3.92
Sep-62 3.98
Oct-62 4.03
Nov-62 4.06
Dec-62 3.85
Jan-63 3.90
Feb-63 3.82
Mar-63 3.93
Apr-63 3.91
May-63 3.80
Jun-63 3.88
Jul-63 3.66
Aug-63 4.03
Sep-63 3.99
Oct-63 3.88
Nov-63 3.84
Dec-63 3.78
Jan-64 3.55
Feb-64 3.73
Mar-64 3.59
Apr-64 3.69
May-64 3.65
Jun-64 3.59
Jul-64 3.41
Aug-64 3.41
Sep-64 3.53
Oct-64 3.50
Nov-64 3.39
Dec-64 3.53
Jan-65 3.40
Feb-65 3.29
Mar-65 3.26
Apr-65 3.16
May-65 3.18
Jun-65 3.06
Jul-65 3.20
Aug-65 3.17
Sep-65 2.83
Oct-65 3.02
Nov-65 2.90
Dec-65 2.83
Jan-66 2.88
Feb-66 2.61
Mar-66 2.64
Apr-66 2.63
May-66 2.65
Jun-66 3.00
Jul-66 2.92
Aug-66 2.65
Sep-66 2.53
Oct-66 2.53
Nov-66 2.35
Dec-66 2.72
Jan-67 2.96
Feb-67 3.15
Mar-67 3.14
Apr-67 3.21
May-67 2.48
Jun-67 2.82
Jul-67 2.77
Aug-67 2.77
Sep-67 2.98
Oct-67 2.90
Nov-67 2.96
Dec-67 2.81
Jan-68 2.51
Feb-68 2.86
Mar-68 2.63
Apr-68 2.57
May-68 2.54
Jun-68 2.69
Jul-68 2.56
Aug-68 2.58
Sep-68 2.55
Oct-68 2.47
Nov-68 2.52
Dec-68 2.59
Jan-69 2.49
Feb-69 2.52
Mar-69 2.64
Apr-69 2.52
May-69 2.53
Jun-69 2.69
Jul-69 2.57
Aug-69 2.74
Sep-69 2.80
Oct-69 2.76
Nov-69 2.65
Dec-69 2.69
Jan-70 2.77
Feb-70 2.78
Mar-70 2.84
Apr-70 3.33
May-70 3.17
Jun-70 3.00
Jul-70 3.17
Aug-70 3.10
Sep-70 3.09
Oct-70 3.32
Nov-70 3.28
Dec-70 3.51
Jan-71 3.49
Feb-71 3.47
Mar-71 3.50
Apr-71 3.55
May-71 3.44
Jun-71 3.09
Jul-71 3.41
Aug-71 3.36
Sep-71 3.31
Oct-71 3.41
Nov-71 3.51
Dec-71 3.24
Jan-72 3.30
Feb-72 3.19
Mar-72 3.23
Apr-72 3.34
May-72 3.13
Jun-72 3.42
Jul-72 3.40
Aug-72 3.43
Sep-72 3.24
Oct-72 3.10
Nov-72 2.90
Dec-72 2.84
Jan-73 2.61
Feb-73 2.85
Mar-73 2.81
Apr-73 2.76
May-73 2.83
Jun-73 3.22
Jul-73 3.17
Aug-73 3.06
Sep-73 3.09
Oct-73 3.09
Nov-73 3.11
Dec-73 3.29
Jan-74 3.17
Feb-74 3.42
Mar-74 3.13
Apr-74 3.03
May-74 3.31
Jun-74 3.20
Jul-74 3.24
Aug-74 3.44
Sep-74 3.66
Oct-74 3.66
Nov-74 4.02
Dec-74 4.16
Jan-75 4.83
Feb-75 4.68
Mar-75 4.80
Apr-75 4.91
May-75 4.65
Jun-75 4.42
Jul-75 4.27
Aug-75 4.23
Sep-75 4.13
Oct-75 4.17
Nov-75 4.11
Dec-75 4.09
Jan-76 4.32
Feb-76 4.03
Mar-76 3.99
Apr-76 3.98
May-76 4.02
Jun-76 3.91
Jul-76 3.93
Aug-76 3.97
Sep-76 4.12
Oct-76 4.24
Nov-76 4.20
Dec-76 4.15
Jan-77 3.98
Feb-77 4.30
Mar-77 3.96
Apr-77 3.73
May-77 3.87
Jun-77 3.97
Jul-77 4.05
Aug-77 3.86
Sep-77 3.89
Oct-77 3.84
Nov-77 3.82
Dec-77 3.72
Jan-78 3.53
Feb-78 3.70
Mar-78 3.72
Apr-78 3.76
May-78 3.69
Jun-78 3.81
Jul-78 3.71
Aug-78 3.74
Sep-78 3.69
Oct-78 3.61
Nov-78 3.52
Dec-78 3.39
Jan-79 3.52
Feb-79 3.55
Mar-79 3.55
Apr-79 3.60
May-79 3.59
Jun-79 3.75
Jul-79 3.59
Aug-79 3.67
Sep-79 3.52
Oct-79 3.55
Nov-79 3.71
Dec-79 3.79
Jan-80 3.74
Feb-80 3.77
Mar-80 3.74
Apr-80 4.20
May-80 4.75
Jun-80 4.61
Jul-80 4.58
Aug-80 4.67
Sep-80 4.55
Oct-80 4.54
Nov-80 4.52
Dec-80 4.47
Jan-81 4.63
Feb-81 4.48
Mar-81 4.45
Apr-81 4.38
May-81 4.48
Jun-81 4.42
Jul-81 4.69
Aug-81 4.68
Sep-81 4.81
Oct-81 5.31
Nov-81 5.19
Dec-81 5.56
Jan-82 5.08
Feb-82 5.75
Mar-82 5.96
Apr-82 6.07
May-82 6.10
Jun-82 6.02
Jul-82 6.12
Aug-82 6.24
Sep-82 6.74
Oct-82 6.91
Nov-82 6.76
Dec-82 6.72
Jan-83 6.79
Feb-83 6.63
Mar-83 6.50
Apr-83 6.33
May-83 6.25
Jun-83 6.20
Jul-83 6.11
Aug-83 6.15
Sep-83 6.07
Oct-83 5.89
Nov-83 5.98
Dec-83 5.71
Jan-84 5.75
Feb-84 5.69
Mar-84 5.45
Apr-84 5.52
May-84 5.29
Jun-84 5.57
Jul-84 5.45
Aug-84 5.31
Sep-84 5.43
Oct-84 5.41
Nov-84 5.31
Dec-84 5.46
Jan-85 5.30
Feb-85 4.95
Mar-85 5.34
Apr-85 5.26
May-85 5.45
Jun-85 5.27
Jul-85 5.23
Aug-85 5.37
Sep-85 5.20
Oct-85 5.06
Nov-85 5.09
Dec-85 5.09
Jan-86 5.09
Feb-86 4.85
Mar-86 5.10
Apr-86 5.35
May-86 5.42
Jun-86 5.14
Jul-86 4.93
Aug-86 5.02
Sep-86 5.10
Oct-86 5.23
Nov-86 4.99
Dec-86 5.07
Jan-87 4.94
Feb-87 5.01
Mar-87 4.88
Apr-87 4.79
May-87 4.79
Jun-87 4.67
Jul-87 4.88
Aug-87 4.72
Sep-87 4.70
Oct-87 4.82
Nov-87 4.87
Dec-87 4.64
Jan-88 4.65
Feb-88 4.65
Mar-88 4.63
Apr-88 4.48
May-88 4.30
Jun-88 4.61
Jul-88 4.75
Aug-88 4.56
Sep-88 4.41
Oct-88 4.33
Nov-88 4.34
Dec-88 4.62
Jan-89 4.33
Feb-89 4.20
Mar-89 4.16
Apr-89 4.31
May-89 4.18
Jun-89 4.23
Jul-89 4.19
Aug-89 4.15
Sep-89 4.11
Oct-89 4.03
Nov-89 4.07
Dec-89 4.09
Jan-90 4.08
Feb-90 4.04
Mar-90 4.07
Apr-90 4.16
May-90 4.19
Jun-90 4.51
Jul-90 4.44
Aug-90 4.52
Sep-90 4.53
Oct-90 4.62
Nov-90 4.64
Dec-90 4.82
Jan-91 4.63
Feb-91 5.07
Mar-91 5.15
Apr-91 5.30
May-91 5.15
Jun-91 5.19
Jul-91 5.23
Aug-91 5.26
Sep-91 5.46
Oct-91 5.42
Nov-91 5.51
Dec-91 5.50
Jan-92 5.59
Feb-92 5.56
Mar-92 5.53
Apr-92 5.48
May-92 5.53
Jun-92 5.46
Jul-92 5.48
Aug-92 5.46
Sep-92 5.40
Oct-92 5.54
Nov-92 5.58
Dec-92 5.43
Jan-93 5.20
Feb-93 5.56
Mar-93 5.29
Apr-93 5.51
May-93 5.45
Jun-93 5.52
Jul-93 5.56
Aug-93 5.53
Sep-93 5.45
Oct-93 5.28
Nov-93 5.16
Dec-93 5.18
Jan-94 4.06
Feb-94 3.83
Mar-94 4.01
Apr-94 3.89
May-94 3.94
Jun-94 3.93
Jul-94 3.67
Aug-94 3.53
Sep-94 3.50
Oct-94 3.60
Nov-94 3.59
Dec-94 3.56
Jan-95 3.65
Feb-95 3.52
Mar-95 3.56
Apr-95 3.54
May-95 3.63
Jun-95 3.60
Jul-95 3.55
Aug-95 3.61
Sep-95 3.66
Oct-95 3.56
Nov-95 3.59
Dec-95 3.54
Jan-96 3.21
Feb-96 3.52
Mar-96 3.52
Apr-96 3.54
May-96 3.43
Jun-96 3.41
Jul-96 3.43
Aug-96 3.45
Sep-96 3.44
Oct-96 3.42
Nov-96 3.15
Dec-96 3.41
Jan-97 3.27
Feb-97 3.31
Mar-97 3.19
Apr-97 3.40
May-97 3.11
Jun-97 3.09
Jul-97 3.11
Aug-97 3.11
Sep-97 3.08
Oct-97 3.05
Nov-97 3.03
Dec-97 2.94
Jan-98 3.00
Feb-98 2.96
Mar-98 2.95
Apr-98 2.88
May-98 2.84
Jun-98 2.87
Jul-98 2.89
Aug-98 2.69
Sep-98 2.61
Oct-98 2.60
Nov-98 2.52
Dec-98 2.58
Jan-99 2.59
Feb-99 2.58
Mar-99 2.67
Apr-99 2.59
May-99 2.55
Jun-99 2.56
Jul-99 2.51
Aug-99 2.46
Sep-99 2.45
Oct-99 2.35
Nov-99 2.40
Dec-99 2.44
Jan-00 2.35
Feb-00 2.32
Mar-00 2.36
Apr-00 2.32
May-00 2.40
Jun-00 2.34
Jul-00 2.30
Aug-00 2.35
Sep-00 2.35
Oct-00 2.32
Nov-00 2.52
Dec-00 2.36
Jan-01 2.42
Feb-01 2.40
Mar-01 2.38
Apr-01 2.40
May-01 2.51
Jun-01 2.77
Jul-01 2.59
Aug-01 2.48
Sep-01 3.09
Oct-01 3.25
Nov-01 3.17
Dec-01 3.23
Jan-02 3.03
Feb-02 3.14
Mar-02 3.01
Apr-02 3.08
May-02 3.01
Jun-02 2.97
Jul-02 3.04
Aug-02 3.15
Sep-02 3.15
Oct-02 3.15
Nov-02 3.17
Dec-02 3.17
Jan-03 3.35
Feb-03 3.52
Mar-03 3.38
Apr-03 3.49
May-03 3.32
Jun-03 3.33
Jul-03 3.38
Aug-03 3.21
Sep-03 3.55
Oct-03 3.49
Nov-03 3.51
Dec-03 3.43
Jan-04 3.40
Feb-04 3.28
Mar-04 3.42
Apr-04 3.29
May-04 3.30
Jun-04 3.19
Jul-04 3.19
Aug-04 3.21
Sep-04 3.22
Oct-04 3.45
Nov-04 3.24
Dec-04 3.16
Jan-05 3.13
Feb-05 3.03
Mar-05 3.12
Apr-05 3.03
May-05 3.05
Jun-05 3.13
Jul-05 3.10
Aug-05 3.15
Sep-05 3.28
Oct-05 2.99
Nov-05 2.96
Dec-05 2.88
Jan-06 2.88
Feb-06 2.91
Mar-06 2.76
Apr-06 2.71
May-06 2.85
Jun-06 2.99
Jul-06 2.98
Aug-06 2.90
Sep-06 2.84
Oct-06 2.99
Nov-06 2.88
Dec-06 2.87
Jan-07 2.93
Feb-07 2.89
Mar-07 2.91
Apr-07 2.96
May-07 3.07
Jun-07 2.97
Jul-07 3.02
Aug-07 3.14
Sep-07 3.09
Oct-07 2.96
Nov-07 3.07
Dec-07 3.16
Jan-08 3.31
Feb-08 3.35
Mar-08 3.36
Apr-08 3.57
May-08 3.62
Jun-08 3.80
Jul-08 4.07
Aug-08 4.03
Sep-08 4.24
Oct-08 4.62
Nov-08 5.07
Dec-08 5.60
Jan-09 5.66
Feb-09 6.20
Mar-09 6.45
Apr-09 6.33
May-09 6.49
Jun-09 6.46
Jul-09 6.39
Aug-09 6.47
Sep-09 6.39
Oct-09 6.51
Nov-09 6.56
Dec-09 6.59
Jan-10 6.13
Feb-10 6.42
Mar-10 6.57
Apr-10 6.58
May-10 6.33
Jun-10 6.21
Jul-10 6.19
Aug-10 6.33
Sep-10 6.62
Oct-10 6.41
Nov-10 6.37
Dec-10 6.41
Jan-11 6.06
Feb-11 6.02
Mar-11 6.10
Apr-11 6.20
May-11 6.13
Jun-11 6.12
Jul-11 6.03
Aug-11 6.30
Sep-11 6.49
Oct-11 6.22
Nov-11 5.99
Dec-11 5.80
Jan-12 5.80
Feb-12 5.72
Mar-12 5.40
Apr-12 5.56
May-12 5.70
Jun-12 5.76
Jul-12 5.80
Aug-12 5.66
Sep-12 6.02
Oct-12 5.78
Nov-12 5.68
Dec-12 5.53
Jan-13 5.56

Note: There were National Bureau of Economic Research defined recessions from 1957Q3 to 1954Q2, from 1960Q2 to 1961Q1, from 1969Q4 to 1970Q4, from 1973Q4 to 1975Q1, from 1980Q1 to 1980Q3, from 1981Q3 to 1982Q4, from 1990Q3 to 1991Q1, from 2001Q1 to 2001Q4, and from 2007Q4 to 2009Q2. A break in the data series occurs in January 1994 as a result of the redesign of the Current Population Survey.

Source: U.S. Depratment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Exhibit 7: Labor's Share of Income, Nonfinancial Corporate Sector
Quarter Share
1947Q1 66.56
1947Q2 64.79
1947Q3 65.13
1947Q4 64.81
1948Q1 63.64
1948Q2 62.75
1948Q3 63.55
1948Q4 62.85
1949Q1 62.97
1949Q2 63.32
1949Q3 62.31
1949Q4 63.45
1950Q1 62.65
1950Q2 61.94
1950Q3 61.05
1950Q4 61.14
1951Q1 61.96
1951Q2 62.85
1951Q3 62.69
1951Q4 62.46
1952Q1 63.63
1952Q2 64.22
1952Q3 64.70
1952Q4 64.34
1953Q1 64.38
1953Q2 64.91
1953Q3 65.18
1953Q4 67.32
1954Q1 66.28
1954Q2 65.65
1954Q3 64.99
1954Q4 64.35
1955Q1 63.09
1955Q2 63.20
1955Q3 63.41
1955Q4 63.59
1956Q1 64.38
1956Q2 64.70
1956Q3 64.94
1956Q4 65.13
1957Q1 64.74
1957Q2 64.96
1957Q3 65.13
1957Q4 65.84
1958Q1 66.54
1958Q2 65.93
1958Q3 65.21
1958Q4 64.24
1959Q1 63.98
1959Q2 63.45
1959Q3 64.68
1959Q4 64.74
1960Q1 64.51
1960Q2 65.51
1960Q3 65.40
1960Q4 65.71
1961Q1 65.85
1961Q2 65.04
1961Q3 64.87
1961Q4 64.43
1962Q1 64.19
1962Q2 64.66
1962Q3 64.40
1962Q4 64.06
1963Q1 64.08
1963Q2 63.60
1963Q3 63.56
1963Q4 63.53
1964Q1 63.09
1964Q2 63.35
1964Q3 63.37
1964Q4 63.67
1965Q1 62.68
1965Q2 62.64
1965Q3 62.76
1965Q4 62.81
1966Q1 62.78
1966Q2 63.41
1966Q3 64.08
1966Q4 64.11
1967Q1 64.51
1967Q2 64.60
1967Q3 64.64
1967Q4 64.32
1968Q1 64.64
1968Q2 64.44
1968Q3 64.70
1968Q4 64.84
1969Q1 65.09
1969Q2 65.72
1969Q3 66.31
1969Q4 67.12
1970Q1 67.89
1970Q2 67.17
1970Q3 67.22
1970Q4 67.45
1971Q1 66.25
1971Q2 66.29
1971Q3 66.22
1971Q4 66.19
1972Q1 66.31
1972Q2 66.56
1972Q3 66.28
1972Q4 66.10
1973Q1 66.18
1973Q2 66.89
1973Q3 67.18
1973Q4 67.25
1974Q1 68.00
1974Q2 68.13
1974Q3 68.47
1974Q4 68.13
1975Q1 67.10
1975Q2 65.80
1975Q3 64.73
1975Q4 65.06
1976Q1 64.98
1976Q2 65.68
1976Q3 66.06
1976Q4 66.49
1977Q1 66.31
1977Q2 65.61
1977Q3 65.12
1977Q4 65.77
1978Q1 66.79
1978Q2 65.81
1978Q3 66.53
1978Q4 66.50
1979Q1 67.32
1979Q2 67.56
1979Q3 67.99
1979Q4 68.13
1980Q1 68.17
1980Q2 69.01
1980Q3 68.39
1980Q4 67.46
1981Q1 67.06
1981Q2 66.66
1981Q3 65.72
1981Q4 66.39
1982Q1 66.65
1982Q2 66.29
1982Q3 66.48
1982Q4 66.94
1983Q1 66.22
1983Q2 65.54
1983Q3 65.05
1983Q4 65.14
1984Q1 64.69
1984Q2 64.58
1984Q3 64.89
1984Q4 64.92
1985Q1 65.05
1985Q2 65.22
1985Q3 64.92
1985Q4 65.68
1986Q1 65.65
1986Q2 66.00
1986Q3 66.31
1986Q4 66.44
1987Q1 66.25
1987Q2 65.80
1987Q3 65.43
1987Q4 65.73
1988Q1 65.23
1988Q2 65.38
1988Q3 65.43
1988Q4 65.01
1989Q1 65.53
1989Q2 65.64
1989Q3 65.63
1989Q4 66.11
1990Q1 66.06
1990Q2 65.78
1990Q3 66.26
1990Q4 66.20
1991Q1 65.54
1991Q2 65.74
1991Q3 65.93
1991Q4 66.27
1992Q1 66.23
1992Q2 66.33
1992Q3 66.84
1992Q4 66.30
1993Q1 66.47
1993Q2 66.14
1993Q3 66.17
1993Q4 65.37
1994Q1 65.36
1994Q2 64.93
1994Q3 64.58
1994Q4 64.27
1995Q1 64.81
1995Q2 64.84
1995Q3 64.39
1995Q4 64.35
1996Q1 63.95
1996Q2 63.91
1996Q3 63.91
1996Q4 63.73
1997Q1 63.68
1997Q2 63.77
1997Q3 63.53
1997Q4 64.16
1998Q1 65.20
1998Q2 65.32
1998Q3 65.19
1998Q4 65.60
1999Q1 65.49
1999Q2 65.41
1999Q3 65.79
1999Q4 66.15
2000Q1 66.72
2000Q2 66.63
2000Q3 67.22
2000Q4 67.77
2001Q1 67.87
2001Q2 67.51
2001Q3 67.70
2001Q4 68.00
2002Q1 67.01
2002Q2 66.93
2002Q3 66.83
2002Q4 66.34
2003Q1 66.31
2003Q2 66.52
2003Q3 66.31
2003Q4 66.23
2004Q1 64.77
2004Q2 64.35
2004Q3 64.22
2004Q4 64.39
2005Q1 63.59
2005Q2 62.96
2005Q3 63.53
2005Q4 62.31
2006Q1 62.32
2006Q2 62.28
2006Q3 61.37
2006Q4 62.24
2007Q1 62.48
2007Q2 62.31
2007Q3 63.14
2007Q4 63.21
2008Q1 64.07
2008Q2 63.90
2008Q3 62.67
2008Q4 63.48
2009Q1 63.45
2009Q2 63.95
2009Q3 63.64
2009Q4 62.28
2010Q1 61.17
2010Q2 61.42
2010Q3 60.97
2010Q4 61.07
2011Q1 61.59
2011Q2 60.61
2011Q3 60.50
2011Q4 60.20
2012Q1 60.58
2012Q2 60.55
2012Q3 60.74

Note: There were National Bureau of Economic Research defined recessions from 1948Q4 to 1949Q4, 1957Q3 to 1954Q2, from 1960Q2 to 1961Q1, from 1969Q4 to 1970Q4, from 1973Q4 to 1975Q1, from 1980Q1 to 1980Q3, from 1981Q3 to 1982Q4, from 1990Q3 to 1991Q1, from 2001Q1 to 2001Q4, and from 2007Q4 to 2009Q2.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Exhibit 8: Occupation and Industry Mismatch
Date Industry Occupation
May-05 0.19 0.36
Jun-05 0.19 0.36
Jul-05 0.19 0.36
Aug-05 0.19 0.38
Sep-05 0.18 0.38
Oct-05 0.18 0.36
Nov-05 0.15 0.37
Dec-05 0.21 0.37
Jan-06 0.22 0.38
Feb-06 0.20 0.39
Mar-06 0.16 0.37
Apr-06 0.18 0.37
May-06 0.19 0.37
Jun-06 0.19 0.37
Jul-06 0.15 0.38
Aug-06 0.19 0.39
Sep-06 0.17 0.37
Oct-06 0.16 0.38
Nov-06 0.19 0.39
Dec-06 0.16 0.39
Jan-07 0.14 0.38
Feb-07 0.16 0.41
Mar-07 0.16 0.41
Apr-07 0.17 0.41
May-07 0.16 0.41
Jun-07 0.18 0.41
Jul-07 0.15 0.41
Aug-07 0.15 0.40
Sep-07 0.19 0.42
Oct-07 0.20 0.42
Nov-07 0.17 0.42
Dec-07 0.19 0.42
Jan-08 0.21 0.42
Feb-08 0.21 0.41
Mar-08 0.21 0.42
Apr-08 0.22 0.42
May-08 0.19 0.40
Jun-08 0.24 0.42
Jul-08 0.23 0.41
Aug-08 0.24 0.40
Sep-08 0.22 0.42
Oct-08 0.22 0.40
Nov-08 0.27 0.40
Dec-08 0.26 0.41
Jan-09 0.30 0.42
Feb-09 0.30 0.42
Mar-09 0.29 0.41
Apr-09 0.32 0.41
May-09 0.30 0.43
Jun-09 0.28 0.43
Jul-09 0.31 0.43
Aug-09 0.28 0.42
Sep-09 0.25 0.41
Oct-09 0.30 0.42
Nov-09 0.29 0.43
Dec-09 0.28 0.42
Jan-10 0.30 0.40
Feb-10 0.25 0.40
Mar-10 0.24 0.41
Apr-10 0.28 0.41
May-10 0.25 0.41
Jun-10 0.22 0.41
Jul-10 0.23 0.41
Aug-10 0.24 0.41
Sep-10 0.23 0.41
Oct-10 0.23 0.40
Nov-10 0.24 0.40
Dec-10 0.23 0.39
Jan-11 0.19 0.40
Feb-11 0.20 0.39
Mar-11 0.20 0.38
Apr-11 0.20 0.39
May-11 0.21 0.38
Jun-11 0.22 0.38
Jul-11 0.20 0.37
Aug-11 0.22 0.38
Sep-11 0.20 0.37
Oct-11 0.18 0.37
Nov-11 0.16 0.36
Dec-11 0.18 0.36

Note: There was a National Bureau of Economic Research defined recession from 2007Q4 to 2009Q1.

Source: Edward P. Lazear and James R. Spletzer (2012), "The United States Labor Market: Status Quo or a New Normal?" NBER Working Paper Series 18386 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, September

Last Update: February 11, 2013