Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Exhibit 1: U.S. Household Saving Rate
| Period | Percent |
|---|---|
| 2000:Q1 | 3.1 |
| 2000:Q2 | 3.1 |
| 2000:Q3 | 3.1 |
| 2000:Q4 | 2.4 |
| 2001:Q1 | 2.8 |
| 2001:Q2 | 2.1 |
| 2001:Q3 | 4.2 |
| 2001:Q4 | 1.6 |
| 2002:Q1 | 4.0 |
| 2002:Q2 | 4.0 |
| 2002:Q3 | 3.1 |
| 2002:Q4 | 3.1 |
| 2003:Q1 | 3.1 |
| 2003:Q2 | 3.5 |
| 2003:Q3 | 3.6 |
| 2003:Q4 | 3.6 |
| 2004:Q1 | 3.3 |
| 2004:Q2 | 3.8 |
| 2004:Q3 | 3.5 |
| 2004:Q4 | 3.8 |
| 2005:Q1 | 1.8 |
| 2005:Q2 | 1.5 |
| 2005:Q3 | 1.3 |
| 2005:Q4 | 1.6 |
| 2006:Q1 | 2.4 |
| 2006:Q2 | 2.7 |
| 2006:Q3 | 2.5 |
| 2006:Q4 | 2.8 |
| 2007:Q1 | 2.6 |
| 2007:Q2 | 2.3 |
| 2007:Q3 | 2.1 |
| 2007:Q4 | 2.5 |
| 2008:Q1 | 4.2 |
| 2008:Q2 | 6.2 |
| 2008:Q3 | 4.9 |
| 2008:Q4 | 6.2 |
| 2009:Q1 | 5.7 |
| 2009:Q2 | 6.2 |
| 2009:Q3 | 4.4 |
| 2009:Q4 | 4.3 |
| 2010:Q1 | 4.9 |
| 2010:Q2 | 5.6 |
| 2010:Q3 | 5.6 |
| 2010:Q4 | 5.2 |
| 2011:Q1 | 5.0 |
| 2011:Q2 | 4.8 |
| 2011:Q3 | 3.8 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public
Percent of GDP
| Period | Actual | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1940 | 42.7 | ND |
| 1941 | 43.3 | ND |
| 1942 | 62.0 | ND |
| 1943 | 77.1 | ND |
| 1944 | 95.7 | ND |
| 1945 | 112.7 | ND |
| 1946 | 102.6 | ND |
| 1947 | 90.4 | ND |
| 1948 | 79.9 | ND |
| 1949 | 81.4 | ND |
| 1950 | 73.7 | ND |
| 1951 | 63.7 | ND |
| 1952 | 61.8 | ND |
| 1953 | 60.2 | ND |
| 1954 | 60.7 | ND |
| 1955 | 55.5 | ND |
| 1956 | 51.2 | ND |
| 1957 | 48.1 | ND |
| 1958 | 49.5 | ND |
| 1959 | 47.0 | ND |
| 1960 | 44.8 | ND |
| 1961 | 44.6 | ND |
| 1962 | 42.9 | ND |
| 1963 | 41.4 | ND |
| 1964 | 39.0 | ND |
| 1965 | 36.5 | ND |
| 1966 | 33.7 | ND |
| 1967 | 33.4 | ND |
| 1968 | 31.2 | ND |
| 1969 | 28.5 | ND |
| 1970 | 28.2 | ND |
| 1971 | 27.7 | ND |
| 1972 | 26.8 | ND |
| 1973 | 24.8 | ND |
| 1974 | 24.6 | ND |
| 1975 | 26.6 | ND |
| 1976 | 28.1 | ND |
| 1977 | 27.8 | ND |
| 1978 | 26.8 | ND |
| 1979 | 25.7 | ND |
| 1980 | 26.2 | ND |
| 1981 | 26.3 | ND |
| 1982 | 30.0 | ND |
| 1983 | 33.4 | ND |
| 1984 | 34.5 | ND |
| 1985 | 37.1 | ND |
| 1986 | 39.8 | ND |
| 1987 | 40.7 | ND |
| 1988 | 40.9 | ND |
| 1989 | 41.0 | ND |
| 1990 | 42.8 | ND |
| 1991 | 46.1 | ND |
| 1992 | 48.3 | ND |
| 1993 | 49.5 | ND |
| 1994 | 49.2 | ND |
| 1995 | 49.2 | ND |
| 1996 | 47.9 | ND |
| 1997 | 45.3 | ND |
| 1998 | 42.3 | ND |
| 1999 | 38.6 | ND |
| 2000 | 34.5 | ND |
| 2001 | 32.5 | ND |
| 2002 | 33.6 | ND |
| 2003 | 35.6 | ND |
| 2004 | 36.8 | ND |
| 2005 | 36.9 | ND |
| 2006 | 36.5 | ND |
| 2007 | 36.2 | ND |
| 2008 | 40.3 | ND |
| 2009 | 53.5 | ND |
| 2010 | 62.1 | ND |
| 2011 | 67.3 | 67.3 |
| 2012 | ND | 71.4 |
| 2013 | ND | 74.5 |
| 2014 | ND | 75.4 |
| 2015 | ND | 74.7 |
| 2016 | ND | 75.4 |
| 2017 | ND | 76.3 |
| 2018 | ND | 77.3 |
| 2019 | ND | 78.6 |
| 2020 | ND | 80.2 |
| 2021 | ND | 82.0 |
| 2022 | ND | 83.6 |
| 2023 | ND | 86.1 |
| 2024 | ND | 89.5 |
| 2025 | ND | 93.0 |
| 2026 | ND | 96.4 |
| 2027 | ND | 100.8 |
| 2028 | ND | 104.3 |
| 2029 | ND | 108.7 |
| 2030 | ND | 114.0 |
| 2031 | ND | 118.5 |
| 2032 | ND | 123.8 |
| 2033 | ND | 129.2 |
| 2034 | ND | 134.6 |
| 2035 | ND | 140.1 |
Note: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations using Congressional Budget Office projections.
ND No data Return to table
Exhibit 3: Real GDP
Output Growth
Quarterly
4-quarter percent change
| Period | Asian emerging market economies | Other emerging market economies | Advanced economies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005:Q1 | 7.34 | 4.91 | 2.15 |
| 2005:Q2 | 7.56 | 5.03 | 2.36 |
| 2005:Q3 | 7.84 | 4.68 | 2.54 |
| 2005:Q4 | 8.36 | 4.81 | 2.66 |
| 2006:Q1 | 9.31 | 5.72 | 2.97 |
| 2006:Q2 | 9.42 | 5.62 | 3.00 |
| 2006:Q3 | 9.18 | 5.92 | 2.56 |
| 2006:Q4 | 9.16 | 5.84 | 2.78 |
| 2007:Q1 | 9.93 | 5.70 | 2.53 |
| 2007:Q2 | 10.43 | 6.03 | 2.51 |
| 2007:Q3 | 10.43 | 5.93 | 2.78 |
| 2007:Q4 | 10.20 | 6.32 | 2.45 |
| 2008:Q1 | 9.15 | 6.50 | 1.91 |
| 2008:Q2 | 8.24 | 5.89 | 1.00 |
| 2008:Q3 | 7.05 | 5.03 | -0.41 |
| 2008:Q4 | 4.22 | 0.24 | -2.98 |
| 2009:Q1 | 3.37 | -4.19 | -5.46 |
| 2009:Q2 | 4.78 | -5.06 | -5.16 |
| 2009:Q3 | 6.70 | -3.89 | -4.11 |
| 2009:Q4 | 9.13 | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| 2010:Q1 | 10.81 | 5.14 | 2.20 |
| 2010:Q2 | 9.51 | 6.45 | 2.90 |
| 2010:Q3 | 8.55 | 5.17 | 3.20 |
| 2010:Q4 | 8.22 | 5.11 | 2.60 |
| 2011:Q1 | 7.76 | 5.06 | 1.88 |
| 2011:Q2 | 7.78 | 4.19 | 1.27 |
Note: GDP weighted aggregate. Advanced economies consist of Australia, Canada, the euro area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Asian emerging market economies consist of China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. Other emerging market economies consist of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.
Source: Country sources via Haver; International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.
Level of Output
Quarterly
2005:Q1 = 100
| Period | Asian emerging market economies | Other emerging market economies | Advanced economies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005:Q1 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| 2005:Q2 | 101.71 | 101.48 | 100.69 |
| 2005:Q3 | 103.97 | 102.40 | 101.45 |
| 2005:Q4 | 106.41 | 103.88 | 102.02 |
| 2006:Q1 | 109.34 | 105.74 | 102.97 |
| 2006:Q2 | 111.33 | 107.25 | 103.70 |
| 2006:Q3 | 113.60 | 108.53 | 104.04 |
| 2006:Q4 | 116.29 | 110.03 | 104.86 |
| 2007:Q1 | 120.56 | 111.90 | 105.59 |
| 2007:Q2 | 123.40 | 113.85 | 106.33 |
| 2007:Q3 | 125.96 | 115.18 | 106.96 |
| 2007:Q4 | 128.76 | 117.27 | 107.46 |
| 2008:Q1 | 132.64 | 119.51 | 107.65 |
| 2008:Q2 | 134.76 | 120.93 | 107.41 |
| 2008:Q3 | 136.19 | 121.35 | 106.55 |
| 2008:Q4 | 135.85 | 117.89 | 104.29 |
| 2009:Q1 | 138.50 | 114.40 | 101.75 |
| 2009:Q2 | 142.72 | 114.73 | 101.84 |
| 2009:Q3 | 146.91 | 116.62 | 102.14 |
| 2009:Q4 | 149.82 | 118.45 | 102.98 |
| 2010:Q1 | 153.50 | 120.06 | 103.98 |
| 2010:Q2 | 156.25 | 122.02 | 104.82 |
| 2010:Q3 | 159.54 | 122.65 | 105.41 |
| 2010:Q4 | 162.24 | 124.60 | 105.70 |
| 2011:Q1 | 166.25 | 126.21 | 106.03 |
| 2011:Q2 | 169.38 | 127.20 | 106.24 |
Note: GDP weighted aggregate. Advanced economies consist of Australia, Canada, the euro area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Asian emerging market economies consist of China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. Other emerging market economies consist of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.
Source: Country sources via Haver; International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.
Exhibit 4: Exports and Trade Balance
Exports as a share of GDP
Percent
| Period | China | Other Emerging Asia* | Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 20.49 | 23.65 | 114.16 |
| 1996 | 17.70 | 23.23 | 108.06 |
| 1997 | 19.26 | 25.36 | 104.14 |
| 1998 | 18.07 | 31.48 | 110.16 |
| 1999 | 17.99 | 28.94 | 114.03 |
| 2000 | 20.79 | 31.77 | 122.66 |
| 2001 | 20.09 | 29.02 | 114.78 |
| 2002 | 22.40 | 28.40 | 118.48 |
| 2003 | 26.71 | 28.79 | 131.05 |
| 2004 | 30.72 | 31.59 | 143.73 |
| 2005 | 33.76 | 31.35 | 155.03 |
| 2006 | 35.71 | 31.84 | 159.07 |
| 2007 | 34.87 | 30.85 | 151.73 |
| 2008 | 31.65 | 34.12 | 156.16 |
| 2009 | 24.08 | 29.37 | 135.42 |
| 2010 | 26.62 | 30.97 | 147.98 |
* GDP weighted average. Return to table
Source: Haver, CEIC, and National Statistical Offices.
2010 Trade Balance** as a share of GDP
| Economy | Percent |
|---|---|
| Singapore | 28.06 |
| Malaysia | 17.81 |
| Thailand | 6.75 |
| Taiwan | 6.70 |
| Hong Kong | 5.61 |
| China | 3.92 |
| Korea | 3.02 |
| Indonesia | 3.01 |
| Philippines | -4.01 |
| India | -5.39 |
** Goods and services. Return to text
Source: Haver.
Exhibit 5: Private Consumption as a Share of GDP
Percent of GDP
| Period | China | Other emerging Asia* | Advanced economies** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 46.44 | 58.31 | 62.50 |
| 2001 | 45.34 | 59.79 | 63.29 |
| 2002 | 44.04 | 59.81 | 63.49 |
| 2003 | 42.19 | 58.98 | 63.20 |
| 2004 | 40.56 | 57.29 | 62.72 |
| 2005 | 38.82 | 56.98 | 62.84 |
| 2006 | 36.94 | 56.66 | 62.61 |
| 2007 | 35.97 | 56.23 | 62.17 |
| 2008 | 35.12 | 57.04 | 62.41 |
| 2009 | 35.11 | 57.01 | 63.54 |
| 2010 | 33.22 | 55.51 | 63.39 |
GDP weighted average of Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand. Return to table
GDP weighted average of Canada, the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Return to table
Source: Haver, CEIC, and National Statistical Offices.