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Figure 1--Projections of Unemployment
Unemployment Rate
Percent
| Period | History | Blue Chip consensus | FOMC central tendency |
Range between the top 10 and bottom 10 Blue Chip projections |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010:Q1 | 9.8 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q2 | 9.6 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q3 | 9.5 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q4 | 9.6 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q1 | 9.0 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.1 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.1 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.7 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | ND | 8.2 to 8.5 |
| 2012:Q2 | ND | 8.3 | ND | 8.0 to 8.6 |
| 2012:Q3 | ND | 8.2 | ND | 7.9 to 8.5 |
| 2012:Q4 | ND | 8.1 | 8.2 to 8.5 | 7.7 to 8.5 |
| 2013:Q1 | ND | 8.0 | ND | 7.5 to 8.4 |
| 2013:Q2 | ND | 7.8 | ND | 7.4 to 8.3 |
| 2013:Q3 | ND | 7.7 | ND | 7.1 to 8.3 |
| 2013:Q4 | ND | 7.6 | 7.4 to 8.1 | 7.0 to 8.2 |
| 2014:Q1 | ND | 7.45 | ND | 6.75 to 8.05 |
| 2014:Q2 | ND | 7.3 | ND | 6.6 to 7.9 |
| 2014:Q3 | ND | 7.15 | ND | 6.45 to 7.75 |
| 2014:Q4 | ND | 7.0 | 6.7 to 7.6 | 6.3 to 7.6 |
FOMC central tendency for longer-run unemployment rate: 5.2 to 6.0
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip survey; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections. Blue Chip survey projections are taken from Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a publication owned by Aspen Publishers. Copyright (c) 2012 by Aspen Publishers, Inc. (www.aspenpublishers.com). All rights reserved.
Figure 2--Uncertainty about Unemployment Projections
[Identical to Figure 1, except that the range between the top 10 and bottom 10 Blue Chip projections is replaced by a 70 percent confidence interval.]
Unemployment Rate
Percent
| Period | History | Blue Chip consensus | FOMC central tendency | 70 percent confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010:Q1 | 9.8 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q2 | 9.6 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q3 | 9.5 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q4 | 9.6 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q1 | 9.0 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.1 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.1 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.7 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | ND | 8.45 to 8.86 |
| 2012:Q2 | ND | 8.3 | ND | 8.18 to 8.92 |
| 2012:Q3 | ND | 8.2 | ND | 7.91 to 8.97 |
| 2012:Q4 | ND | 8.1 | 8.2 to 8.5 | 7.68 to 9.01 |
| 2013:Q1 | ND | 8.0 | ND | 7.38 to 8.98 |
| 2013:Q2 | ND | 7.8 | ND | 7.08 to 8.94 |
| 2013:Q3 | ND | 7.7 | ND | 6.83 to 8.90 |
| 2013:Q4 | ND | 7.6 | 7.4 to 8.1 | 6.61 to 8.85 |
| 2014:Q1 | ND | 7.45 | ND | 6.38 to 8.78 |
| 2014:Q2 | ND | 7.3 | ND | 6.23 to 8.71 |
| 2014:Q3 | ND | 7.15 | ND | 6.10 to 8.65 |
| 2014:Q4 | ND | 7.0 | 6.7 to 7.6 | 5.98 to 8.58 |
FOMC central tendency for longer-run unemployment rate: 5.2 to 6.0
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip survey; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections. Blue Chip survey projections are taken from Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a publication owned by Aspen Publishers. Copyright (c) 2012 by Aspen Publishers, Inc. (www.aspenpublishers.com). All rights reserved.
Figure 3--The Beveridge Curve since 2007
2007:Q1 to 2012:Q1
[Unemployment rate on the x-axis, vacancy rate on the y-axis]
| Period | Unemployment rate (percent) | Vacancy rate (index) |
|---|---|---|
| 2007:Q1 | 4.5 | 3.17 |
| 2007:Q2 | 4.5 | 3.16 |
| 2007:Q3 | 4.7 | 2.96 |
| 2007:Q4 | 4.8 | 2.82 |
| 2008:Q1 | 5.0 | 2.76 |
| 2008:Q2 | 5.3 | 2.56 |
| 2008:Q3 | 6.0 | 2.48 |
| 2008:Q4 | 6.9 | 2.33 |
| 2009:Q1 | 8.3 | 1.90 |
| 2009:Q2 | 9.3 | 1.82 |
| 2009:Q3 | 9.6 | 1.91 |
| 2009:Q4 | 9.9 | 1.98 |
| 2010:Q1 | 9.8 | 2.18 |
| 2010:Q2 | 9.6 | 2.21 |
| 2010:Q3 | 9.5 | 2.24 |
| 2010:Q4 | 9.6 | 2.25 |
| 2011:Q1 | 9.0 | 2.48 |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.1 | 2.53 |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.1 | 2.46 |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.7 | 2.42 |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.2 | 2.52 |
Note: The vacancy rate is given by an index of help-wanted advertisements divided by the labor force.
Source: For unemployment rate, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for help-wanted advertisements, Conference Board and Barnichon (2010).
Figure 4--The Evolution of the Beveridge Curve
[Identical to Figure 3, except for the addition of two curves; unemployment rate on the x-axis, vacancy rate on the y-axis]
1973:Q4 to 1976:Q2
| Period | Unemployment rate (percent) | Vacancy rate (index) |
|---|---|---|
| 1973:Q4 | 4.8 | 5.16 |
| 1974:Q1 | 5.1 | 4.90 |
| 1974:Q2 | 5.2 | 4.91 |
| 1974:Q3 | 5.6 | 4.53 |
| 1974:Q4 | 6.6 | 3.77 |
| 1975:Q1 | 8.2 | 3.26 |
| 1975:Q2 | 8.9 | 3.29 |
| 1975:Q3 | 8.5 | 3.47 |
| 1975:Q4 | 8.3 | 3.59 |
| 1976:Q1 | 7.7 | 3.79 |
| 1976:Q2 | 7.6 | 3.88 |
1979:Q2 to 1983:Q4
| Period | Unemployment rate (percent) | Vacancy rate (index) |
|---|---|---|
| 1979:Q2 | 5.7 | 5.64 |
| 1979:Q3 | 5.9 | 5.60 |
| 1979:Q4 | 5.9 | 5.53 |
| 1980:Q1 | 6.3 | 5.15 |
| 1980:Q2 | 7.3 | 4.30 |
| 1980:Q3 | 7.7 | 4.36 |
| 1980:Q4 | 7.4 | 4.51 |
| 1981:Q1 | 7.4 | 4.41 |
| 1981:Q2 | 7.4 | 4.39 |
| 1981:Q3 | 7.4 | 4.25 |
| 1981:Q4 | 8.2 | 3.80 |
| 1982:Q1 | 8.8 | 3.56 |
| 1982:Q2 | 9.4 | 3.26 |
| 1982:Q3 | 9.9 | 2.90 |
| 1982:Q4 | 10.7 | 2.85 |
| 1983:Q1 | 10.4 | 2.99 |
| 1983:Q2 | 10.1 | 3.29 |
| 1983:Q3 | 9.4 | 3.64 |
| 1983:Q4 | 8.5 | 4.02 |
2007:Q1 to 2012:Q1
| Period | Unemployment rate (percent) | Vacancy rate (index) |
|---|---|---|
| 2007:Q1 | 4.5 | 3.17 |
| 2007:Q2 | 4.5 | 3.16 |
| 2007:Q3 | 4.7 | 2.96 |
| 2007:Q4 | 4.8 | 2.82 |
| 2008:Q1 | 5.0 | 2.76 |
| 2008:Q2 | 5.3 | 2.56 |
| 2008:Q3 | 6.0 | 2.48 |
| 2008:Q4 | 6.9 | 2.33 |
| 2009:Q1 | 8.3 | 1.90 |
| 2009:Q2 | 9.3 | 1.82 |
| 2009:Q3 | 9.6 | 1.91 |
| 2009:Q4 | 9.9 | 1.98 |
| 2010:Q1 | 9.8 | 2.18 |
| 2010:Q2 | 9.6 | 2.21 |
| 2010:Q3 | 9.5 | 2.24 |
| 2010:Q4 | 9.6 | 2.25 |
| 2011:Q1 | 9.0 | 2.48 |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.1 | 2.53 |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.1 | 2.46 |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.7 | 2.42 |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.2 | 2.52 |
Note: The vacancy rate is given by an index of help-wanted advertisements divided by the labor force.
Source: For unemployment rate, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for help-wanted advertisements, Conference Board and Barnichon (2010).
Figure 5--Okun's Law
Q4/Q4 Changes in Real GDP and Unemployment since 1990
[Scatterplot; change in real GDP on the x-axis, change in unemployment on the y-axis]
| Period | Q4/Q4 percent change in real GDP, percentage points | Q4/Q4 change in unemployment, percentage points |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| 1991 | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| 1992 | 4.31 | 0.31 |
| 1993 | 2.69 | -0.79 |
| 1994 | 4.16 | -1.00 |
| 1995 | 2.01 | -0.05 |
| 1996 | 4.44 | -0.26 |
| 1997 | 4.34 | -0.63 |
| 1998 | 4.98 | -0.25 |
| 1999 | 4.82 | -0.35 |
| 2000 | 2.91 | -0.16 |
| 2001 | 0.40 | 1.62 |
| 2002 | 1.94 | 0.31 |
| 2003 | 3.87 | -0.03 |
| 2004 | 2.90 | -0.43 |
| 2005 | 2.81 | -0.44 |
| 2006 | 2.38 | -0.50 |
| 2007 | 2.21 | 0.35 |
| 2008 | -3.32 | 2.08 |
| 2009 | -0.54 | 3.06 |
| 2010 | 3.14 | -0.37 |
| 2011 | 1.61 | -0.87 |
As shown in the figure, a trend line with negative slope runs between approximately (-3.35, 2.43) and (4.94, -0.78).
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6--Projections of Inflation
PCE Price Index
4-quarter percent change
| Period | History | Blue Chip consensus | FOMC central tendency | 70 percent confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010:Q1 | 2.38 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q2 | 1.99 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q3 | 1.48 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2010:Q4 | 1.28 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q1 | 1.78 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.53 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q3 | 2.87 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2011:Q4 | 2.67 | ND | ND | ND |
| 2012:Q1 | ND | 2.2 | ND | 1.53 to 2.25 |
| 2012:Q2 | ND | 1.9 | ND | 1.21 to 2.48 |
| 2012:Q3 | ND | 1.7 | ND | 0.91 to 2.63 |
| 2012:Q4 | ND | 1.9 | 1.4 to 1.8 | 0.64 to 2.76 |
| 2013:Q1 | ND | 1.9 | ND | 0.61 to 2.83 |
| 2013:Q2 | ND | 1.9 | ND | 0.57 to 2.87 |
| 2013:Q3 | ND | 2.0 | ND | 0.57 to 2.93 |
| 2013:Q4 | ND | 2.0 | 1.4 to 2.0 | 0.50 to 3.02 |
| 2014:Q1 | ND | 2.05 | ND | 0.52 to 3.06 |
| 2014:Q2 | ND | 2.1 | ND | 0.51 to 3.08 |
| 2014:Q3 | ND | 2.15 | ND | 0.47 to 3.12 |
| 2014:Q4 | ND | 2.2 | 1.6 to 2.0 | 0.46 to 3.11 |
Note: Blue Chip CPI projection adjusted to PCE basis.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Blue Chip survey; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections. Blue Chip survey projections are taken from Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a publication owned by Aspen Publishers. Copyright (c) 2012 by Aspen Publishers, Inc. (www.aspenpublishers.com). All rights reserved.
Figure 7--Optimal Control Simulations
Federal Funds Rate
Percent
| Period | Illustrative baseline | Optimal control |
|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| 2011:Q2 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| 2011:Q4 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| 2012:Q1 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2012:Q2 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2012:Q3 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| 2012:Q4 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| 2013:Q1 | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| 2013:Q2 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| 2013:Q3 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| 2013:Q4 | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| 2014:Q1 | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| 2014:Q2 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| 2014:Q3 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| 2014:Q4 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| 2015:Q1 | 0.43 | 0.16 |
| 2015:Q2 | 0.73 | 0.18 |
| 2015:Q3 | 1.03 | 0.23 |
| 2015:Q4 | 1.33 | 0.34 |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.63 | 0.58 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.93 | 0.92 |
| 2016:Q3 | 2.23 | 1.33 |
| 2016:Q4 | 2.53 | 1.78 |
| 2017:Q1 | 2.83 | 2.23 |
| 2017:Q2 | 3.13 | 2.67 |
| 2017:Q3 | 3.43 | 3.08 |
| 2017:Q4 | 3.73 | 3.44 |
| 2018:Q1 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| 2018:Q2 | 4.00 | 4.01 |
| 2018:Q3 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| 2018:Q4 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
Unemployment Rate
Percent
| Period | Illustrative baseline | Optimal control |
|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 8.99 | 8.99 |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.07 | 9.07 |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.06 | 9.06 |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.70 | 8.70 |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.65 | 8.65 |
| 2012:Q2 | 8.55 | 8.55 |
| 2012:Q3 | 8.45 | 8.43 |
| 2012:Q4 | 8.35 | 8.29 |
| 2013:Q1 | 8.20 | 8.09 |
| 2013:Q2 | 8.05 | 7.88 |
| 2013:Q3 | 7.90 | 7.67 |
| 2013:Q4 | 7.75 | 7.45 |
| 2014:Q1 | 7.60 | 7.24 |
| 2014:Q2 | 7.45 | 7.03 |
| 2014:Q3 | 7.30 | 6.82 |
| 2014:Q4 | 7.15 | 6.61 |
| 2015:Q1 | 7.00 | 6.41 |
| 2015:Q2 | 6.85 | 6.21 |
| 2015:Q3 | 6.70 | 6.02 |
| 2015:Q4 | 6.55 | 5.83 |
| 2016:Q1 | 6.41 | 5.65 |
| 2016:Q2 | 6.29 | 5.50 |
| 2016:Q3 | 6.18 | 5.38 |
| 2016:Q4 | 6.10 | 5.29 |
| 2017:Q1 | 6.02 | 5.23 |
| 2017:Q2 | 5.96 | 5.19 |
| 2017:Q3 | 5.90 | 5.18 |
| 2017:Q4 | 5.86 | 5.18 |
| 2018:Q1 | 5.82 | 5.19 |
| 2018:Q2 | 5.79 | 5.23 |
| 2018:Q3 | 5.76 | 5.27 |
| 2018:Q4 | 5.74 | 5.32 |
PCE Inflation
4-quarter percent change
| Period | Illustrative baseline | Optimal control |
|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.53 | 2.53 |
| 2011:Q3 | 2.87 | 2.87 |
| 2011:Q4 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| 2012:Q1 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 2012:Q2 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| 2012:Q3 | 1.70 | 1.88 |
| 2012:Q4 | 1.60 | 1.87 |
| 2013:Q1 | 1.63 | 1.99 |
| 2013:Q2 | 1.65 | 2.02 |
| 2013:Q3 | 1.68 | 2.07 |
| 2013:Q4 | 1.70 | 2.11 |
| 2014:Q1 | 1.73 | 2.14 |
| 2014:Q2 | 1.75 | 2.16 |
| 2014:Q3 | 1.78 | 2.19 |
| 2014:Q4 | 1.80 | 2.21 |
| 2015:Q1 | 1.84 | 2.24 |
| 2015:Q2 | 1.87 | 2.27 |
| 2015:Q3 | 1.90 | 2.28 |
| 2015:Q4 | 1.92 | 2.29 |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.93 | 2.30 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.95 | 2.30 |
| 2016:Q3 | 1.96 | 2.30 |
| 2016:Q4 | 1.97 | 2.30 |
| 2017:Q1 | 1.97 | 2.29 |
| 2017:Q2 | 1.98 | 2.28 |
| 2017:Q3 | 1.98 | 2.27 |
| 2017:Q4 | 1.99 | 2.25 |
| 2018:Q1 | 1.99 | 2.23 |
| 2018:Q2 | 1.99 | 2.20 |
| 2018:Q3 | 1.99 | 2.18 |
| 2018:Q4 | 1.99 | 2.14 |
Figure 8--Simple Policy Rules
Federal Funds Rate
Percent
| Period | Optimal control | Taylor 1999 | Taylor 1993 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| 2011:Q2 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| 2011:Q4 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| 2012:Q1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2012:Q2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| 2012:Q3 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| 2012:Q4 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2013:Q1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2013:Q2 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.30 |
| 2013:Q3 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.44 |
| 2013:Q4 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.58 |
| 2014:Q1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.73 |
| 2014:Q2 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.88 |
| 2014:Q3 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1.04 |
| 2014:Q4 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1.20 |
| 2015:Q1 | 0.16 | 0.52 | 1.38 |
| 2015:Q2 | 0.18 | 0.91 | 1.57 |
| 2015:Q3 | 0.23 | 1.29 | 1.76 |
| 2015:Q4 | 0.34 | 1.65 | 1.96 |
| 2016:Q1 | 0.58 | 2.00 | 2.15 |
| 2016:Q2 | 0.92 | 2.29 | 2.33 |
| 2016:Q3 | 1.33 | 2.53 | 2.50 |
| 2016:Q4 | 1.78 | 2.75 | 2.67 |
| 2017:Q1 | 2.23 | 2.94 | 2.83 |
| 2017:Q2 | 2.67 | 3.11 | 2.98 |
| 2017:Q3 | 3.08 | 3.26 | 3.13 |
| 2017:Q4 | 3.44 | 3.40 | 3.28 |
| 2018:Q1 | 3.75 | 3.53 | 3.43 |
| 2018:Q2 | 4.01 | 3.65 | 3.57 |
| 2018:Q3 | 4.20 | 3.76 | 3.70 |
| 2018:Q4 | 4.33 | 3.85 | 3.82 |
Unemployment Rate
Percent
| Period | Optimal control | Taylor 1999 | Taylor 1993 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 8.99 | 8.99 | 8.99 |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.07 | 9.07 | 9.07 |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.06 | 9.06 | 9.06 |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.70 | 8.70 | 8.70 |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.65 | 8.65 | 8.65 |
| 2012:Q2 | 8.55 | 8.55 | 8.55 |
| 2012:Q3 | 8.43 | 8.45 | 8.47 |
| 2012:Q4 | 8.29 | 8.35 | 8.40 |
| 2013:Q1 | 8.09 | 8.21 | 8.29 |
| 2013:Q2 | 7.88 | 8.06 | 8.19 |
| 2013:Q3 | 7.67 | 7.91 | 8.09 |
| 2013:Q4 | 7.45 | 7.76 | 8.00 |
| 2014:Q1 | 7.24 | 7.62 | 7.90 |
| 2014:Q2 | 7.03 | 7.47 | 7.80 |
| 2014:Q3 | 6.82 | 7.32 | 7.70 |
| 2014:Q4 | 6.61 | 7.18 | 7.59 |
| 2015:Q1 | 6.41 | 7.03 | 7.48 |
| 2015:Q2 | 6.21 | 6.88 | 7.35 |
| 2015:Q3 | 6.02 | 6.74 | 7.22 |
| 2015:Q4 | 5.83 | 6.59 | 7.07 |
| 2016:Q1 | 5.65 | 6.45 | 6.92 |
| 2016:Q2 | 5.50 | 6.33 | 6.79 |
| 2016:Q3 | 5.38 | 6.23 | 6.66 |
| 2016:Q4 | 5.29 | 6.14 | 6.53 |
| 2017:Q1 | 5.23 | 6.06 | 6.42 |
| 2017:Q2 | 5.19 | 5.99 | 6.31 |
| 2017:Q3 | 5.18 | 5.92 | 6.20 |
| 2017:Q4 | 5.18 | 5.86 | 6.10 |
| 2018:Q1 | 5.19 | 5.81 | 6.01 |
| 2018:Q2 | 5.23 | 5.76 | 5.92 |
| 2018:Q3 | 5.27 | 5.71 | 5.84 |
| 2018:Q4 | 5.32 | 5.68 | 5.78 |
PCE Inflation
4-quarter percent change
| Period | Optimal control | Taylor 1999 | Taylor 1993 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.53 | 2.53 | 2.53 |
| 2011:Q3 | 2.87 | 2.87 | 2.87 |
| 2011:Q4 | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| 2012:Q1 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 2012:Q2 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.76 |
| 2012:Q3 | 1.88 | 1.71 | 1.63 |
| 2012:Q4 | 1.87 | 1.61 | 1.49 |
| 2013:Q1 | 1.99 | 1.65 | 1.48 |
| 2013:Q2 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 1.52 |
| 2013:Q3 | 2.07 | 1.70 | 1.54 |
| 2013:Q4 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.56 |
| 2014:Q1 | 2.14 | 1.75 | 1.58 |
| 2014:Q2 | 2.16 | 1.78 | 1.61 |
| 2014:Q3 | 2.19 | 1.81 | 1.63 |
| 2014:Q4 | 2.21 | 1.83 | 1.66 |
| 2015:Q1 | 2.24 | 1.88 | 1.70 |
| 2015:Q2 | 2.27 | 1.91 | 1.72 |
| 2015:Q3 | 2.28 | 1.93 | 1.75 |
| 2015:Q4 | 2.29 | 1.96 | 1.77 |
| 2016:Q1 | 2.30 | 1.97 | 1.78 |
| 2016:Q2 | 2.30 | 1.98 | 1.80 |
| 2016:Q3 | 2.30 | 1.99 | 1.81 |
| 2016:Q4 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| 2017:Q1 | 2.29 | 2.00 | 1.85 |
| 2017:Q2 | 2.28 | 2.00 | 1.86 |
| 2017:Q3 | 2.27 | 2.00 | 1.88 |
| 2017:Q4 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 1.91 |
| 2018:Q1 | 2.23 | 2.01 | 1.93 |
| 2018:Q2 | 2.20 | 2.01 | 1.96 |
| 2018:Q3 | 2.18 | 2.01 | 1.99 |
| 2018:Q4 | 2.14 | 2.02 | 2.01 |
Figure 9--Uncertainty and Policy Conditionality
Federal Funds Rate
Percent
| Period | Baseline using Taylor 1999 | Stronger recovery | Weaker recovery |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| 2011:Q2 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| 2011:Q3 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| 2011:Q4 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| 2012:Q1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2012:Q2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2012:Q3 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2012:Q4 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2013:Q1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2013:Q2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2013:Q3 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2013:Q4 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| 2014:Q1 | 0.13 | 0.61 | 0.13 |
| 2014:Q2 | 0.13 | 1.36 | 0.13 |
| 2014:Q3 | 0.13 | 2.06 | 0.13 |
| 2014:Q4 | 0.13 | 2.66 | 0.13 |
| 2015:Q1 | 0.52 | 3.16 | 0.13 |
| 2015:Q2 | 0.91 | 3.56 | 0.13 |
| 2015:Q3 | 1.29 | 3.88 | 0.13 |
| 2015:Q4 | 1.65 | 4.13 | 0.13 |
| 2016:Q1 | 2.00 | 4.33 | 0.33 |
| 2016:Q2 | 2.29 | 4.44 | 0.83 |
| 2016:Q3 | 2.53 | 4.50 | 1.31 |
| 2016:Q4 | 2.75 | 4.53 | 1.75 |
| 2017:Q1 | 2.94 | 4.54 | 2.14 |
| 2017:Q2 | 3.11 | 4.54 | 2.47 |
| 2017:Q3 | 3.26 | 4.55 | 2.76 |
| 2017:Q4 | 3.40 | 4.57 | 3.00 |
| 2018:Q1 | 3.53 | 4.61 | 3.20 |
| 2018:Q2 | 3.65 | 4.66 | 3.37 |
| 2018:Q3 | 3.76 | 4.72 | 3.50 |
| 2018:Q4 | 3.85 | 4.78 | 3.60 |
Unemployment Rate
Percent
| Period | Baseline using Taylor 1999 | Stronger recovery | Weaker recovery |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 8.99 | 8.99 | 8.99 |
| 2011:Q2 | 9.07 | 9.07 | 9.07 |
| 2011:Q3 | 9.06 | 9.06 | 9.06 |
| 2011:Q4 | 8.70 | 8.70 | 8.70 |
| 2012:Q1 | 8.65 | 8.65 | 8.65 |
| 2012:Q2 | 8.55 | 8.54 | 8.56 |
| 2012:Q3 | 8.45 | 8.41 | 8.47 |
| 2012:Q4 | 8.35 | 8.26 | 8.41 |
| 2013:Q1 | 8.21 | 8.04 | 8.30 |
| 2013:Q2 | 8.06 | 7.80 | 8.21 |
| 2013:Q3 | 7.91 | 7.54 | 8.13 |
| 2013:Q4 | 7.76 | 7.27 | 8.06 |
| 2014:Q1 | 7.62 | 6.97 | 7.99 |
| 2014:Q2 | 7.47 | 6.68 | 7.92 |
| 2014:Q3 | 7.32 | 6.41 | 7.85 |
| 2014:Q4 | 7.18 | 6.18 | 7.76 |
| 2015:Q1 | 7.03 | 5.99 | 7.67 |
| 2015:Q2 | 6.88 | 5.85 | 7.55 |
| 2015:Q3 | 6.74 | 5.75 | 7.41 |
| 2015:Q4 | 6.59 | 5.67 | 7.23 |
| 2016:Q1 | 6.45 | 5.61 | 7.03 |
| 2016:Q2 | 6.33 | 5.58 | 6.82 |
| 2016:Q3 | 6.23 | 5.57 | 6.62 |
| 2016:Q4 | 6.14 | 5.56 | 6.43 |
| 2017:Q1 | 6.06 | 5.56 | 6.27 |
| 2017:Q2 | 5.99 | 5.56 | 6.12 |
| 2017:Q3 | 5.92 | 5.55 | 6.01 |
| 2017:Q4 | 5.86 | 5.54 | 5.91 |
| 2018:Q1 | 5.81 | 5.52 | 5.83 |
| 2018:Q2 | 5.76 | 5.49 | 5.77 |
| 2018:Q3 | 5.71 | 5.46 | 5.73 |
| 2018:Q4 | 5.68 | 5.43 | 5.70 |
PCE Inflation
4-quarter percent change
| Period | Baseline using Taylor 1999 | Stronger recovery | Weaker recovery |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011:Q1 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| 2011:Q2 | 2.53 | 2.53 | 2.53 |
| 2011:Q3 | 2.87 | 2.87 | 2.87 |
| 2011:Q4 | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| 2012:Q1 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 2012:Q2 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| 2012:Q3 | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.71 |
| 2012:Q4 | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.61 |
| 2013:Q1 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.64 |
| 2013:Q2 | 1.67 | 1.69 | 1.66 |
| 2013:Q3 | 1.70 | 1.74 | 1.68 |
| 2013:Q4 | 1.73 | 1.79 | 1.69 |
| 2014:Q1 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.69 |
| 2014:Q2 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 1.70 |
| 2014:Q3 | 1.81 | 1.95 | 1.69 |
| 2014:Q4 | 1.83 | 1.99 | 1.69 |
| 2015:Q1 | 1.88 | 2.05 | 1.70 |
| 2015:Q2 | 1.91 | 2.10 | 1.71 |
| 2015:Q3 | 1.93 | 2.15 | 1.72 |
| 2015:Q4 | 1.96 | 2.20 | 1.74 |
| 2016:Q1 | 1.97 | 2.23 | 1.75 |
| 2016:Q2 | 1.98 | 2.26 | 1.76 |
| 2016:Q3 | 1.99 | 2.28 | 1.77 |
| 2016:Q4 | 2.00 | 2.30 | 1.78 |
| 2017:Q1 | 2.00 | 2.30 | 1.78 |
| 2017:Q2 | 2.00 | 2.30 | 1.79 |
| 2017:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.30 | 1.80 |
| 2017:Q4 | 2.00 | 2.29 | 1.81 |
| 2018:Q1 | 2.01 | 2.29 | 1.83 |
| 2018:Q2 | 2.01 | 2.28 | 1.84 |
| 2018:Q3 | 2.01 | 2.27 | 1.86 |
| 2018:Q4 | 2.02 | 2.27 | 1.88 |