Accessible Version
Accessible Version
Figure 1. Inflation Has Been Running Persistently below 2 Percent
Percent
Make Full ScreenPeriod | PCE inflation | Core PCE inflation |
---|---|---|
January 2012 | 2.57 | 2.09 |
February 2012 | 2.52 | 2.06 |
March 2012 | 2.37 | 2.11 |
April 2012 | 2.06 | 2.03 |
May 2012 | 1.66 | 1.91 |
June 2012 | 1.60 | 1.90 |
July 2012 | 1.44 | 1.84 |
August 2012 | 1.55 | 1.68 |
September 2012 | 1.71 | 1.73 |
October 2012 | 1.94 | 1.84 |
November 2012 | 1.68 | 1.78 |
December 2012 | 1.66 | 1.72 |
January 2013 | 1.55 | 1.67 |
February 2013 | 1.71 | 1.66 |
March 2013 | 1.35 | 1.56 |
April 2013 | 1.13 | 1.44 |
May 2013 | 1.24 | 1.43 |
June 2013 | 1.44 | 1.45 |
July 2013 | 1.51 | 1.44 |
August 2013 | 1.31 | 1.50 |
September 2013 | 1.11 | 1.50 |
October 2013 | 0.96 | 1.43 |
November 2013 | 1.23 | 1.49 |
December 2013 | 1.42 | 1.55 |
January 2014 | 1.48 | 1.47 |
February 2014 | 1.17 | 1.41 |
March 2014 | 1.46 | 1.51 |
April 2014 | 1.74 | 1.63 |
May 2014 | 1.84 | 1.69 |
June 2014 | 1.76 | 1.67 |
July 2014 | 1.82 | 1.74 |
August 2014 | 1.65 | 1.68 |
September 2014 | 1.63 | 1.70 |
October 2014 | 1.48 | 1.62 |
November 2014 | 1.26 | 1.54 |
December 2014 | 0.86 | 1.48 |
January 2015 | 0.21 | 1.36 |
February 2015 | 0.30 | 1.39 |
March 2015 | 0.31 | 1.37 |
April 2015 | 0.16 | 1.33 |
May 2015 | 0.25 | 1.28 |
June 2015 | 0.34 | 1.30 |
July 2015 | 0.31 | 1.25 |
August 2015 | 0.33 | 1.30 |
September 2015 | 0.19 | 1.34 |
October 2015 | 0.23 | 1.28 |
November 2015 | 0.40 | 1.33 |
December 2015 | 0.53 | 1.37 |
January 2016 | 1.12 | 1.61 |
February 2016 | 0.91 | 1.70 |
March 2016 | 0.83 | 1.63 |
April 2016 | 1.11 | 1.71 |
May 2016 | 1.04 | 1.75 |
June 2016 | 1.00 | 1.72 |
July 2016 | 0.96 | 1.78 |
August 2016 | 1.14 | 1.91 |
September 2016 | 1.37 | 1.84 |
October 2016 | 1.56 | 1.91 |
November 2016 | 1.52 | 1.82 |
December 2016 | 1.77 | 1.87 |
January 2017 | 2.03 | 1.89 |
February 2017 | 2.18 | 1.86 |
March 2017 | 1.83 | 1.61 |
April 2017 | 1.73 | 1.57 |
May 2017 | 1.52 | 1.48 |
June 2017 | 1.42 | 1.51 |
July 2017 | 1.40 | 1.41 |
Median of FOMC participants' PCE inflation projections
Make Full ScreenPercent | |
---|---|
2017 | 1.6 |
2018 | 1.9 |
2019 | 2.0 |
2020 | 2.0 |
Note: Inflation measured as 12-month percent changes. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statisticsand Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections.
Figure 2. Labor Market Conditions Have Strengthened Markedly
Percent
Make Full ScreenPeriod | Unemployment rate |
---|---|
January 2012 | 8.3 |
February 2012 | 8.3 |
March 2012 | 8.2 |
April 2012 | 8.2 |
May 2012 | 8.2 |
June 2012 | 8.2 |
July 2012 | 8.2 |
August 2012 | 8.1 |
September 2012 | 7.8 |
October 2012 | 7.8 |
November 2012 | 7.7 |
December 2012 | 7.9 |
January 2013 | 8.0 |
February 2013 | 7.7 |
March 2013 | 7.5 |
April 2013 | 7.6 |
May 2013 | 7.5 |
June 2013 | 7.5 |
July 2013 | 7.3 |
August 2013 | 7.3 |
September 2013 | 7.2 |
October 2013 | 7.2 |
November 2013 | 6.9 |
December 2013 | 6.7 |
January 2014 | 6.6 |
February 2014 | 6.7 |
March 2014 | 6.7 |
April 2014 | 6.2 |
May 2014 | 6.3 |
June 2014 | 6.1 |
July 2014 | 6.2 |
August 2014 | 6.2 |
September 2014 | 5.9 |
October 2014 | 5.7 |
November 2014 | 5.8 |
December 2014 | 5.6 |
January 2015 | 5.7 |
February 2015 | 5.5 |
March 2015 | 5.4 |
April 2015 | 5.4 |
May 2015 | 5.5 |
June 2015 | 5.3 |
July 2015 | 5.2 |
August 2015 | 5.1 |
September 2015 | 5.0 |
October 2015 | 5.0 |
November 2015 | 5.0 |
December 2015 | 5.0 |
January 2016 | 4.9 |
February 2016 | 4.9 |
March 2016 | 5.0 |
April 2016 | 5.0 |
May 2016 | 4.7 |
June 2016 | 4.9 |
July 2016 | 4.9 |
August 2016 | 4.9 |
September 2016 | 4.9 |
October 2016 | 4.8 |
November 2016 | 4.6 |
December 2016 | 4.7 |
January 2017 | 4.8 |
February 2017 | 4.7 |
March 2017 | 4.5 |
April 2017 | 4.4 |
May 2017 | 4.3 |
June 2017 | 4.4 |
July 2017 | 4.3 |
August 2017 | 4.4 |
Median of FOMC participants' annual and longer-run unemployment projections
Make Full ScreenPercent | |
---|---|
2017 | 4.3 |
2018 | 4.1 |
2019 | 4.1 |
2020 | 4.2 |
Longer run | 4.6 |
Note: Monthly data. FOMC annual projections are fourth-quarter averages.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections.
Figure 3. Why Has PCE Inflation Been Running below 2 Percent?
Percentage points
Make Full ScreenPeriod | Total shortfall | Contribution of relative food and energy prices | Contribution of relative import prices | Contribution of slack | Contribution of other factors |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000-07 average | 0.16 | 0.39 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.17 |
2008-12 average | -0.32 | 0.14 | 0.04 | -0.55 | 0.04 |
2013 | -0.80 | -0.29 | -0.34 | -0.50 | 0.33 |
2014 | -0.80 | -0.34 | -0.23 | -0.33 | 0.10 |
2015 | -1.61 | -0.94 | -0.59 | -0.16 | 0.09 |
2016 | -0.38 | -0.25 | -0.42 | -0.06 | 0.35 |
2017 (estimated) | -0.41 | 0.13 | -0.06 | 0.02 | -0.50 |
Note: Deviation of PCE inflation (4th quarter to 4th quarter) from 2 percent, total and portion attributable to specific factors.
Source: Federal Reserve Board calculations using data from the BEA, BLS, CBO and SPF. See the appendix for further details.
Figure 4. Some of the Recent Inflation Slowdown Reflects Idiosyncratic Factors
Percent
Make Full ScreenPeriod | PCE inflation | Core PCE inflation | Trimmed mean inflation |
---|---|---|---|
January 2012 | 2.57 | 2.09 | 2.11 |
February 2012 | 2.52 | 2.06 | 2.04 |
March 2012 | 2.37 | 2.11 | 2.05 |
April 2012 | 2.06 | 2.03 | 2.02 |
May 2012 | 1.66 | 1.91 | 1.95 |
June 2012 | 1.60 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
July 2012 | 1.44 | 1.84 | 1.82 |
August 2012 | 1.55 | 1.68 | 1.78 |
September 2012 | 1.71 | 1.73 | 1.78 |
October 2012 | 1.94 | 1.84 | 1.76 |
November 2012 | 1.68 | 1.78 | 1.70 |
December 2012 | 1.66 | 1.72 | 1.62 |
January 2013 | 1.55 | 1.67 | 1.59 |
February 2013 | 1.71 | 1.66 | 1.65 |
March 2013 | 1.35 | 1.56 | 1.58 |
April 2013 | 1.13 | 1.44 | 1.43 |
May 2013 | 1.24 | 1.43 | 1.39 |
June 2013 | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.46 |
July 2013 | 1.51 | 1.44 | 1.50 |
August 2013 | 1.31 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
September 2013 | 1.11 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
October 2013 | 0.96 | 1.43 | 1.49 |
November 2013 | 1.23 | 1.49 | 1.55 |
December 2013 | 1.42 | 1.55 | 1.60 |
January 2014 | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.59 |
February 2014 | 1.17 | 1.41 | 1.52 |
March 2014 | 1.46 | 1.51 | 1.57 |
April 2014 | 1.74 | 1.63 | 1.71 |
May 2014 | 1.84 | 1.69 | 1.76 |
June 2014 | 1.76 | 1.67 | 1.74 |
July 2014 | 1.82 | 1.74 | 1.78 |
August 2014 | 1.65 | 1.68 | 1.73 |
September 2014 | 1.63 | 1.70 | 1.72 |
October 2014 | 1.48 | 1.62 | 1.70 |
November 2014 | 1.26 | 1.54 | 1.69 |
December 2014 | 0.86 | 1.48 | 1.65 |
January 2015 | 0.21 | 1.36 | 1.55 |
February 2015 | 0.30 | 1.39 | 1.60 |
March 2015 | 0.31 | 1.37 | 1.60 |
April 2015 | 0.16 | 1.33 | 1.62 |
May 2015 | 0.25 | 1.28 | 1.59 |
June 2015 | 0.34 | 1.30 | 1.63 |
July 2015 | 0.31 | 1.25 | 1.61 |
August 2015 | 0.33 | 1.30 | 1.64 |
September 2015 | 0.19 | 1.34 | 1.66 |
October 2015 | 0.23 | 1.28 | 1.62 |
November 2015 | 0.40 | 1.33 | 1.62 |
December 2015 | 0.53 | 1.37 | 1.62 |
January 2016 | 1.12 | 1.61 | 1.72 |
February 2016 | 0.91 | 1.70 | 1.74 |
March 2016 | 0.83 | 1.63 | 1.72 |
April 2016 | 1.11 | 1.71 | 1.75 |
May 2016 | 1.04 | 1.75 | 1.79 |
June 2016 | 1.00 | 1.72 | 1.74 |
July 2016 | 0.96 | 1.78 | 1.77 |
August 2016 | 1.14 | 1.91 | 1.79 |
September 2016 | 1.37 | 1.84 | 1.79 |
October 2016 | 1.56 | 1.91 | 1.88 |
November 2016 | 1.52 | 1.82 | 1.85 |
December 2016 | 1.77 | 1.87 | 1.91 |
January 2017 | 2.03 | 1.89 | 1.94 |
February 2017 | 2.18 | 1.86 | 1.90 |
March 2017 | 1.83 | 1.61 | 1.82 |
April 2017 | 1.73 | 1.57 | 1.74 |
May 2017 | 1.52 | 1.48 | 1.69 |
June 2017 | 1.42 | 1.51 | 1.68 |
July 2017 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 1.64 |
Note: Inflation measured as 12-month percent changes. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Figure 5. The Inflation Outlook Is Inherently Uncertain
Percent
Make Full ScreenActual PCE inflation | Median of FOMC participants' projections (September 2017) | Lower bound of 70 percent confidence interval | Upper bound of 70 percent confidence interval | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 1.76 | |||
2013 | 1.20 | |||
2014 | 1.20 | |||
2015 | 0.39 | |||
2016 | 1.62 | |||
2017 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 2.4 | |
2018 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 3.0 | |
2019 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 3.2 | |
2020 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections.
Figure 6. Some Labor Indicators Are Not Back to Pre-recession Levels
Percent
Make Full ScreenPeriod | Employment-to-population ratio, ages 25 to 54 | Part-time employment for economic reasons |
---|---|---|
January 1990 | 80.24 | |
February 1990 | 80.24 | |
March 1990 | 80.11 | |
April 1990 | 79.89 | |
May 1990 | 79.89 | |
June 1990 | 79.76 | |
July 1990 | 79.59 | |
August 1990 | 79.54 | |
September 1990 | 79.41 | |
October 1990 | 79.35 | |
November 1990 | 79.17 | |
December 1990 | 78.96 | |
January 1991 | 78.86 | |
February 1991 | 78.86 | |
March 1991 | 78.68 | |
April 1991 | 78.96 | |
May 1991 | 78.60 | |
June 1991 | 78.68 | |
July 1991 | 78.62 | |
August 1991 | 78.54 | |
September 1991 | 78.61 | |
October 1991 | 78.46 | |
November 1991 | 78.42 | |
December 1991 | 78.28 | |
January 1992 | 78.35 | |
February 1992 | 78.16 | |
March 1992 | 78.22 | |
April 1992 | 78.42 | |
May 1992 | 78.38 | |
June 1992 | 78.47 | |
July 1992 | 78.40 | |
August 1992 | 78.39 | |
September 1992 | 78.28 | |
October 1992 | 78.19 | |
November 1992 | 78.23 | |
December 1992 | 78.15 | |
January 1993 | 78.21 | |
February 1993 | 78.14 | |
March 1993 | 78.24 | |
April 1993 | 78.24 | |
May 1993 | 78.46 | |
June 1993 | 78.59 | |
July 1993 | 78.58 | |
August 1993 | 78.77 | |
September 1993 | 78.64 | |
October 1993 | 78.66 | |
November 1993 | 78.98 | |
December 1993 | 79.02 | |
January 1994 | 78.91 | |
February 1994 | 78.93 | |
March 1994 | 78.91 | |
April 1994 | 78.99 | |
May 1994 | 79.19 | |
June 1994 | 78.82 | |
July 1994 | 79.06 | |
August 1994 | 79.23 | |
September 1994 | 79.60 | |
October 1994 | 79.58 | |
November 1994 | 79.81 | |
December 1994 | 79.80 | |
January 1995 | 79.72 | 3.65 |
February 1995 | 79.99 | 3.52 |
March 1995 | 79.90 | 3.56 |
April 1995 | 79.83 | 3.54 |
May 1995 | 79.70 | 3.63 |
June 1995 | 79.53 | 3.61 |
July 1995 | 79.70 | 3.55 |
August 1995 | 79.62 | 3.61 |
September 1995 | 79.79 | 3.66 |
October 1995 | 79.80 | 3.56 |
November 1995 | 79.74 | 3.59 |
December 1995 | 79.70 | 3.54 |
January 1996 | 79.77 | 3.21 |
February 1996 | 79.92 | 3.52 |
March 1996 | 79.91 | 3.52 |
April 1996 | 79.90 | 3.54 |
May 1996 | 79.96 | 3.43 |
June 1996 | 80.13 | 3.41 |
July 1996 | 80.36 | 3.43 |
August 1996 | 80.54 | 3.45 |
September 1996 | 80.44 | 3.44 |
October 1996 | 80.58 | 3.42 |
November 1996 | 80.50 | 3.15 |
December 1996 | 80.50 | 3.41 |
January 1997 | 80.54 | 3.27 |
February 1997 | 80.41 | 3.31 |
March 1997 | 80.60 | 3.19 |
April 1997 | 80.72 | 3.40 |
May 1997 | 80.58 | 3.11 |
June 1997 | 80.87 | 3.09 |
July 1997 | 81.14 | 3.11 |
August 1997 | 81.28 | 3.11 |
September 1997 | 81.12 | 3.08 |
October 1997 | 81.06 | 3.05 |
November 1997 | 81.02 | 3.03 |
December 1997 | 80.99 | 2.94 |
January 1998 | 80.97 | 3.00 |
February 1998 | 81.03 | 2.96 |
March 1998 | 81.05 | 2.95 |
April 1998 | 81.05 | 2.88 |
May 1998 | 80.99 | 2.84 |
June 1998 | 81.02 | 2.87 |
July 1998 | 81.13 | 2.89 |
August 1998 | 81.18 | 2.69 |
September 1998 | 81.26 | 2.61 |
October 1998 | 81.13 | 2.60 |
November 1998 | 81.23 | 2.52 |
December 1998 | 81.32 | 2.58 |
January 1999 | 81.82 | 2.59 |
February 1999 | 81.50 | 2.58 |
March 1999 | 81.33 | 2.67 |
April 1999 | 81.32 | 2.59 |
May 1999 | 81.37 | 2.55 |
June 1999 | 81.37 | 2.56 |
July 1999 | 81.16 | 2.51 |
August 1999 | 81.27 | 2.46 |
September 1999 | 81.32 | 2.45 |
October 1999 | 81.48 | 2.35 |
November 1999 | 81.62 | 2.40 |
December 1999 | 81.47 | 2.44 |
January 2000 | 81.81 | 2.35 |
February 2000 | 81.80 | 2.32 |
March 2000 | 81.75 | 2.36 |
April 2000 | 81.93 | 2.32 |
May 2000 | 81.53 | 2.40 |
June 2000 | 81.52 | 2.34 |
July 2000 | 81.26 | 2.30 |
August 2000 | 81.08 | 2.35 |
September 2000 | 81.13 | 2.35 |
October 2000 | 81.12 | 2.32 |
November 2000 | 81.32 | 2.52 |
December 2000 | 81.37 | 2.36 |
January 2001 | 81.40 | 2.42 |
February 2001 | 81.32 | 2.40 |
March 2001 | 81.27 | 2.38 |
April 2001 | 80.86 | 2.40 |
May 2001 | 80.83 | 2.51 |
June 2001 | 80.59 | 2.77 |
July 2001 | 80.51 | 2.59 |
August 2001 | 80.24 | 2.48 |
September 2001 | 80.20 | 3.09 |
October 2001 | 79.94 | 3.25 |
November 2001 | 79.66 | 3.17 |
December 2001 | 79.77 | 3.23 |
January 2002 | 79.56 | 3.03 |
February 2002 | 79.80 | 3.14 |
March 2002 | 79.61 | 3.01 |
April 2002 | 79.49 | 3.08 |
May 2002 | 79.42 | 3.01 |
June 2002 | 79.20 | 2.97 |
July 2002 | 79.07 | 3.04 |
August 2002 | 79.32 | 3.15 |
September 2002 | 79.36 | 3.15 |
October 2002 | 79.20 | 3.15 |
November 2002 | 78.76 | 3.17 |
December 2002 | 78.97 | 3.17 |
January 2003 | 78.90 | 3.35 |
February 2003 | 78.87 | 3.52 |
March 2003 | 78.96 | 3.38 |
April 2003 | 79.06 | 3.49 |
May 2003 | 78.87 | 3.32 |
June 2003 | 78.93 | 3.33 |
July 2003 | 78.75 | 3.38 |
August 2003 | 78.74 | 3.21 |
September 2003 | 78.61 | 3.55 |
October 2003 | 78.63 | 3.49 |
November 2003 | 78.74 | 3.51 |
December 2003 | 78.78 | 3.43 |
January 2004 | 78.88 | 3.40 |
February 2004 | 78.83 | 3.28 |
March 2004 | 78.74 | 3.43 |
April 2004 | 78.89 | 3.29 |
May 2004 | 79.01 | 3.30 |
June 2004 | 79.10 | 3.19 |
July 2004 | 79.19 | 3.19 |
August 2004 | 79.05 | 3.21 |
September 2004 | 79.02 | 3.22 |
October 2004 | 79.00 | 3.45 |
November 2004 | 79.12 | 3.24 |
December 2004 | 78.93 | 3.16 |
January 2005 | 79.16 | 3.13 |
February 2005 | 79.23 | 3.03 |
March 2005 | 79.17 | 3.12 |
April 2005 | 79.36 | 3.03 |
May 2005 | 79.47 | 3.05 |
June 2005 | 79.21 | 3.13 |
July 2005 | 79.39 | 3.10 |
August 2005 | 79.63 | 3.15 |
September 2005 | 79.44 | 3.28 |
October 2005 | 79.32 | 2.99 |
November 2005 | 79.24 | 2.96 |
December 2005 | 79.34 | 2.88 |
January 2006 | 79.59 | 2.88 |
February 2006 | 79.66 | 2.91 |
March 2006 | 79.79 | 2.76 |
April 2006 | 79.57 | 2.71 |
May 2006 | 79.66 | 2.85 |
June 2006 | 79.75 | 2.99 |
July 2006 | 79.78 | 2.98 |
August 2006 | 79.77 | 2.90 |
September 2006 | 79.86 | 2.84 |
October 2006 | 80.09 | 2.99 |
November 2006 | 80.01 | 2.88 |
December 2006 | 80.11 | 2.87 |
January 2007 | 80.33 | 2.93 |
February 2007 | 80.11 | 2.89 |
March 2007 | 80.25 | 2.91 |
April 2007 | 79.95 | 2.96 |
May 2007 | 80.02 | 3.07 |
June 2007 | 79.91 | 2.97 |
July 2007 | 79.75 | 3.02 |
August 2007 | 79.80 | 3.14 |
September 2007 | 79.75 | 3.09 |
October 2007 | 79.57 | 2.96 |
November 2007 | 79.74 | 3.07 |
December 2007 | 79.72 | 3.16 |
January 2008 | 79.99 | 3.31 |
February 2008 | 79.87 | 3.35 |
March 2008 | 79.77 | 3.36 |
April 2008 | 79.60 | 3.57 |
May 2008 | 79.47 | 3.62 |
June 2008 | 79.37 | 3.80 |
July 2008 | 79.21 | 4.07 |
August 2008 | 78.85 | 4.03 |
September 2008 | 78.77 | 4.24 |
October 2008 | 78.44 | 4.62 |
November 2008 | 78.11 | 5.07 |
December 2008 | 77.56 | 5.60 |
January 2009 | 77.04 | 5.66 |
February 2009 | 76.67 | 6.21 |
March 2009 | 76.24 | 6.50 |
April 2009 | 76.19 | 6.33 |
May 2009 | 75.89 | 6.50 |
June 2009 | 75.87 | 6.45 |
July 2009 | 75.79 | 6.36 |
August 2009 | 75.57 | 6.47 |
September 2009 | 75.10 | 6.37 |
October 2009 | 75.04 | 6.49 |
November 2009 | 75.18 | 6.57 |
December 2009 | 74.75 | 6.59 |
January 2010 | 75.15 | 6.16 |
February 2010 | 75.09 | 6.45 |
March 2010 | 75.11 | 6.65 |
April 2010 | 75.38 | 6.59 |
May 2010 | 75.14 | 6.35 |
June 2010 | 75.23 | 6.16 |
July 2010 | 75.06 | 6.11 |
August 2010 | 75.04 | 6.31 |
September 2010 | 75.05 | 6.63 |
October 2010 | 75.03 | 6.35 |
November 2010 | 74.84 | 6.38 |
December 2010 | 75.03 | 6.41 |
January 2011 | 75.15 | 6.08 |
February 2011 | 75.13 | 6.07 |
March 2011 | 75.29 | 6.19 |
April 2011 | 75.08 | 6.20 |
May 2011 | 75.17 | 6.14 |
June 2011 | 74.98 | 6.05 |
July 2011 | 75.01 | 5.94 |
August 2011 | 75.07 | 6.28 |
September 2011 | 74.94 | 6.54 |
October 2011 | 74.95 | 6.17 |
November 2011 | 75.30 | 6.00 |
December 2011 | 75.44 | 5.80 |
January 2012 | 75.53 | 5.87 |
February 2012 | 75.54 | 5.81 |
March 2012 | 75.73 | 5.47 |
April 2012 | 75.67 | 5.58 |
May 2012 | 75.68 | 5.70 |
June 2012 | 75.65 | 5.67 |
July 2012 | 75.61 | 5.68 |
August 2012 | 75.70 | 5.60 |
September 2012 | 75.96 | 6.06 |
October 2012 | 76.10 | 5.72 |
November 2012 | 75.82 | 5.70 |
December 2012 | 75.96 | 5.54 |
January 2013 | 75.62 | 5.64 |
February 2013 | 75.79 | 5.67 |
March 2013 | 75.84 | 5.34 |
April 2013 | 75.87 | 5.53 |
May 2013 | 75.99 | 5.47 |
June 2013 | 75.89 | 5.62 |
July 2013 | 76.01 | 5.60 |
August 2013 | 75.95 | 5.41 |
September 2013 | 76.00 | 5.55 |
October 2013 | 75.62 | 5.57 |
November 2013 | 76.07 | 5.35 |
December 2013 | 76.18 | 5.38 |
January 2014 | 76.41 | 5.03 |
February 2014 | 76.43 | 5.00 |
March 2014 | 76.58 | 5.08 |
April 2014 | 76.47 | 5.13 |
May 2014 | 76.40 | 4.92 |
June 2014 | 76.76 | 5.11 |
July 2014 | 76.67 | 5.07 |
August 2014 | 76.84 | 4.90 |
September 2014 | 76.84 | 4.85 |
October 2014 | 76.95 | 4.77 |
November 2014 | 76.98 | 4.66 |
December 2014 | 77.11 | 4.62 |
January 2015 | 77.11 | 4.62 |
February 2015 | 77.20 | 4.50 |
March 2015 | 77.17 | 4.48 |
April 2015 | 77.20 | 4.42 |
May 2015 | 77.20 | 4.40 |
June 2015 | 77.24 | 4.35 |
July 2015 | 77.12 | 4.23 |
August 2015 | 77.24 | 4.32 |
September 2015 | 77.27 | 4.05 |
October 2015 | 77.26 | 3.84 |
November 2015 | 77.46 | 4.09 |
December 2015 | 77.48 | 4.04 |
January 2016 | 77.71 | 4.01 |
February 2016 | 77.82 | 3.99 |
March 2016 | 77.98 | 4.04 |
April 2016 | 77.74 | 3.95 |
May 2016 | 77.82 | 4.24 |
June 2016 | 77.79 | 3.85 |
July 2016 | 77.98 | 3.92 |
August 2016 | 77.80 | 3.97 |
September 2016 | 78.00 | 3.87 |
October 2016 | 78.17 | 3.85 |
November 2016 | 78.16 | 3.72 |
December 2016 | 78.19 | 3.68 |
January 2017 | 78.21 | 3.84 |
February 2017 | 78.34 | 3.74 |
March 2017 | 78.49 | 3.63 |
April 2017 | 78.57 | 3.44 |
May 2017 | 78.41 | 3.41 |
June 2017 | 78.51 | 3.48 |
July 2017 | 78.66 | 3.44 |
August 2017 | 78.36 | 3.42 |
Note: Part-time employment reported as a share of overall employment. Shaded areas mark recession periods: July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 7. Other Indicators Are at or above Pre-recession Levels
Series: Private quits rate, private jobs opening rate, job availability, and jobs hard to fill
Horizon: January 2000 to August 2017
Description: The data are monthly and are plotted as four curves. All four series are reported as indexes, with an average value in 2007 equal to 100. Data for the private quits rate and the private jobs opening rate first become available in January 2001, while data for job availability and jobs hard to fill are shown starting in January 2000.
The quits rate and the jobs opening rate both started out at a relatively high level of around 115 in early 2001 but then fell modestly during the brief recession that ran from March through November of that year. Both series continued to decline over the following year and half, with the quits rate bottoming out at about 90 in mid-2003 and the jobs opening rate bottoming out at about 80. Thereafter, both series gradually recovered and stood at 100 on the eve of the severe recession that began in late 2007. During this recession (which lasted until mid-2009), the quits rate and the jobs opening rate both plummeted, with the former declining to around 65 and the latter to around 55. From then on, both series steadily rose. By August 2017, the quits rate was slightly above 100, its level on the eve of the Great Recession, while the jobs opening rate stood at 125, well above its pre-recession level.
Movements in the index for job availability over time have been quite similar to those of the quits rate and the jobs opening rate. Job availability was stable at a little over 130 from January 2000 through early 2001 but then fell markedly during the 2001 recession and the next two years, with the index bottoming out at about 75 in late 2003. The series then rose steadily through 2007 to 100 but then plunged during the Great Recession to a low of 50. From late 2009 through 2011, job availability remained roughly stable at this low level but thereafter began to climb steadily. By August 2017, the index was close to 110, modestly above its pre-recession level.
Finally, the jobs-hard-to-fill index displays a similar cyclical pattern to the other three indicators of labor market conditions. The index stood at about 130 in January 2000 but then moved up to 140 over the course of the year. The index then fell markedly during the 2001 recession and continued to move down for a time thereafter, falling below 70 for a time in mid-2003. Over the next four years, the jobs-hard-to-fill index gradually recovered to 100 but then plunged from late 2007 through late 2009 to a low of 35. As with the other indicators, the index then began to gradually recover and, by August 2017, stood at about 135, well above its pre-recession level.
Note: All series are 3-month moving averages, rescaled so that 2007 equals 100. Job availability is the portion of households surveyed believing that jobs are plentiful minus the portion believing that they are hard to get, plus 100. Jobs hard to fill equals the percent of small businesses surveyed with at least one hard-to-fill job.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Conference Board; National Federation of Independent Business.
Figure 8. Measures of Wage Growth Remain Subdued on Balance
Percent
Make Full ScreenPeriod | Average hourly earnings | Employment cost index | Nonfarm business hourly compensation (smoothed) | Wage Growth Tracker |
---|---|---|---|---|
2000:Q1 | 4.63 | 5.15 | 4.87 | |
2000:Q2 | 4.71 | 5.66 | 4.93 | |
2000:Q3 | 4.67 | 6.63 | 5.13 | |
2000:Q4 | 4.49 | 6.96 | 5.37 | |
2001:Q1 | 4.55 | 6.62 | 5.33 | |
2001:Q2 | 4.38 | 6.31 | 5.20 | |
2001:Q3 | 4.46 | 5.24 | 5.10 | |
2001:Q4 | 4.42 | 4.53 | 5.00 | |
2002:Q1 | 3.76 | 3.61 | 4.67 | |
2002:Q2 | 3.85 | 2.84 | 4.30 | |
2002:Q3 | 3.34 | 2.63 | 4.00 | |
2002:Q4 | 3.09 | 2.22 | 3.67 | |
2003:Q1 | 3.63 | 2.36 | 3.77 | |
2003:Q2 | 3.48 | 2.63 | 3.57 | |
2003:Q3 | 4.02 | 3.00 | 3.57 | |
2003:Q4 | 3.99 | 3.80 | 3.37 | |
2004:Q1 | 3.83 | 4.37 | 3.37 | |
2004:Q2 | 3.90 | 4.66 | 3.37 | |
2004:Q3 | 3.76 | 4.86 | 3.53 | |
2004:Q4 | 3.73 | 4.64 | 3.67 | |
2005:Q1 | 3.48 | 4.74 | 3.60 | |
2005:Q2 | 3.13 | 4.47 | 3.63 | |
2005:Q3 | 2.90 | 3.97 | 4.03 | |
2005:Q4 | 2.98 | 3.63 | 4.10 | |
2006:Q1 | 2.65 | 3.52 | 3.87 | |
2006:Q2 | 2.83 | 3.69 | 3.83 | |
2006:Q3 | 3.02 | 3.66 | 3.77 | |
2006:Q4 | 3.09 | 3.87 | 3.90 | |
2007:Q1 | 3.44 | 3.08 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
2007:Q2 | 3.42 | 3.15 | 3.90 | 4.07 |
2007:Q3 | 3.23 | 3.02 | 4.37 | 4.30 |
2007:Q4 | 3.01 | 3.10 | 4.40 | 4.23 |
2008:Q1 | 2.93 | 3.18 | 3.97 | 3.93 |
2008:Q2 | 2.88 | 3.05 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
2008:Q3 | 3.22 | 2.84 | 2.97 | 4.03 |
2008:Q4 | 3.47 | 2.44 | 2.71 | 3.93 |
2009:Q1 | 3.43 | 1.96 | 1.93 | 3.47 |
2009:Q2 | 3.06 | 1.39 | 1.74 | 3.20 |
2009:Q3 | 2.52 | 1.20 | 1.43 | 2.60 |
2009:Q4 | 2.21 | 1.19 | 1.00 | 1.97 |
2010:Q1 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 1.87 | 1.73 |
2010:Q2 | 1.82 | 1.92 | 1.86 | 1.73 |
2010:Q3 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 1.81 | 1.90 |
2010:Q4 | 1.82 | 1.99 | 1.81 | 1.70 |
2011:Q1 | 1.86 | 1.98 | 2.01 | 1.90 |
2011:Q2 | 2.01 | 2.33 | 2.13 | 1.97 |
2011:Q3 | 2.06 | 2.23 | 2.32 | 2.13 |
2011:Q4 | 2.04 | 2.22 | 2.14 | 2.07 |
2012:Q1 | 1.91 | 2.12 | 1.49 | 1.93 |
2012:Q2 | 1.93 | 1.84 | 1.50 | 2.20 |
2012:Q3 | 1.85 | 1.92 | 1.39 | 2.10 |
2012:Q4 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 2.73 | 2.23 |
2013:Q1 | 2.05 | 1.90 | 2.76 | 2.30 |
2013:Q2 | 2.09 | 1.89 | 2.73 | 2.17 |
2013:Q3 | 2.13 | 1.88 | 2.82 | 2.33 |
2013:Q4 | 2.14 | 2.05 | 1.34 | 2.13 |
2014:Q1 | 2.13 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 2.40 |
2014:Q2 | 2.05 | 2.03 | 1.92 | 2.30 |
2014:Q3 | 2.11 | 2.27 | 1.96 | 2.47 |
2014:Q4 | 1.97 | 2.26 | 2.70 | 2.87 |
2015:Q1 | 2.11 | 2.75 | 2.19 | 3.07 |
2015:Q2 | 2.21 | 1.90 | 2.62 | 3.27 |
2015:Q3 | 2.26 | 1.89 | 2.85 | 3.07 |
2015:Q4 | 2.49 | 1.88 | 2.90 | 3.03 |
2016:Q1 | 2.45 | 1.79 | 2.76 | 3.17 |
2016:Q2 | 2.59 | 2.35 | 2.25 | 3.50 |
2016:Q3 | 2.68 | 2.18 | 1.92 | 3.43 |
2016:Q4 | 2.75 | 2.17 | 1.12 | 3.77 |
2017:Q1 | 2.68 | 2.31 | 1.27 | 3.27 |
2017:Q2 | 2.50 | 2.30 | 1.22 | 3.37 |
2017:Q3 | 2.53 | 3.35 |
Note: Percent change from a year earlier. Wage Growth Tracker is reported as a 3-month moving average. Nonfarm business hourly compensation reported as the year-over-year percent change in the 4-quarter moving average of the level.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Figure 9. Have Inflation Expectations Remained Stable?
Series: Expected 10-year PCE inflation (professional forecasters); expected 10-year inflation (households); 5-year, 5-year-forward inflation compensation
Horizon: 2000:Q1 to 2017:Q3
Description: The data are quarterly and are plotted as three curves. Professional forecasters' expectations for 10-year PCE inflation were essentially flat at 2.0 percent from early 2000 through early 2007, fluctuated in a narrow range of 2.0 to 2.2 percent from mid-2007 through late 2012, and have since been essentially flat at 2.0 percent. Households' expectations for inflation over the next 10 years have fluctuated from quarter to quarter but--with the exception of a temporary spike to 3.3 percent in mid-2008--stayed within a narrow range of 2.7 percent to 3.0 percent from 2000 through 2014. Since then, however, household inflation expectations have edged down somewhat and have been running in the range of 2.4 to 2.6 percent since early 2016.
By comparison, inflation compensation has varied markedly since 2000. This series stood at 2.4 percent in early 2000, moved down to almost 2.0 percent during the second half of the year, and then moved back up to 2.4 percent during 2001. From 2002 through 2013, inflation compensation fluctuated noticeably from year to year within a fairly wide range of 2.4 percent to 3.1 percent, showing little trend over time. Since 2013, however, inflation compensation has moved down noticeably, reaching a low of 1.4 percent in 2016:Q3. It has since recovered somewhat and stood at 1.8 percent in 2017:Q3.
Note: The data are quarterly. Forecasters' expectations before 2007 are for the CPI less 0.5 percent.
Source: For households, median response from University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. For professional forecasts, median response from Survey of Professional Forecasters, FRB Philidelphia. Inflation compensation computed by Federal Reserve Board staff using FRB New York financial market data.