Accessible Version

A. Indicative U.S. Treasury Bid-Ask Spreads

Figure A: This is a line chart titled “Indicative U.S. Treasury Bid-Ask Spreads”. The x-axis measures time and ranges from March 02, 2020 to May 1, 2020. The data is daily. There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The left y-axis measures basis points and ranges from 0 to 50 with 2 variables associated with it. The data is daily. The first line is labeled ‘On-the-run bid-ask spread’; is designated by a red line; and ranges from 0 to 5 basis points. The variable rises gradually from March 2 to a peak of about 6 on March 10 before declining gradually to end at about 2 on April 7. The second variable is labeled 'First off-the-run bid-ask spread' and is designated by a blue line. It ranges from 0 to 35 basis points. . The variable rises steadily from March 2 to a peak of about 30 on March 16 before declining gradually to end at about 10 on April 7. The third line is labeled ‘Second off-the-run bid-ask spread’ and is designated by a green line. It ranges from 0 to 50 basis points. The variable rises steadily from March 2 to a peak of about 50 on March 10 before declining steadily to end at about 12 on April 7. The right y-axis measures Billions of Dollars and ranges from 0 to 2000 with 1 variable associated with it. The third line is labeled “Cumulative FED UST purchases since March 1” and is designated by a black line. It ranges from 0 to 2,000 billions of dollars. The variable rises steadily from March 1 at 0 to a peak of about 1,500 to end on May 1.

Note: Indicative bid-ask spreads for 10-year Treasury note. On March 15, the FOMC announced an increase of its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $500 billion and its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $200 billion. On March 23, the Federal Reserve announced it would continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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B. Prime Money Market Mutual Fund Net Flows

Figure B: This is a bar chart titled “Prime Money Market Mutual Fund Net Flows”. The x-axis measures time and ranges from February 14, 2020 to May 1, 2020. The y-axis measures Billions of dollars and ranges from -30 to 20. The data is daily. There is a single series on this chart that is designated by a black bar when it is greater than zero and a maroon bar when it is less than zero. The series begins at 4 and decreases steadily to around -10 on February 28. It then rises quickly to around 10 by March 4 before falling steadily down to around -25 on March 16. There is a vertical event line designated the announcement of the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) on March 17. The series then rises steadily back to around zero by March 28. There is a vertical line designating the beginning of MMLF operations on March 23. The series remains around zero until April 10 at which point the series increases to about 5 where it remains until the end of the figure.

Note: The Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) was announced on March 18 and operations began on March 23. On the same day, the Federal Reserve announced that the MMLF would be expanded to include negotiable certificates of deposit and variable-rate demand notes.

Source: iMoneyNet, Money Fund Analyzer-Gold.

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C. Total Commercial Paper Issuance, by Maturity

Figure C: This is a line chart titled “Total Commercial Paper Issuance, by Maturity”. The x-axis measures time and ranges from January 2020 to May 2020. The y-axis measures Billions of dollars and ranges from 0 to 150. The data is daily. There are three vertical event lines on this chart. The first denotes the announcement of the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) on March 17. The second denotes the adjustment to the terms of the CPFF and MMLF on March 23. The third denotes the beginning of CPFF operations on April 14. There are two series plotted on this chart. The first series is “1- to 4-day-maturity CP” and is designated by a maroon line. The series is flat at 60 from January to until the beginning of March at which point it begins to rise steadily to peak at 90 on March 23. It then decreases back to 60 by April 7 and remains flat there until the end of the chart. The second series is “5- day or longer CP” and is designated by a black line. The series is steady around 30 until the beginning of March when it begins to decline steadily to about 15 on March 23. The series then jumps back up to 30 and remains there through the end of the figure.

Note: CP is Commercial Paper and CPFF is the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. Neither DTCC Solutions LLC nor any of its affiliates shall be responsible for any errors or omissions in any DTCC data included in this publication, regardless of the cause and, in no event, shall DTCC or any of its affiliates be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit, trading loses and opportunity costs) in connection with this publication.

Source: DTCC Solutions LLC, an affiliate of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.

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D. 1-Month Funding Market Spreads for Investment-Grade Nonfinancial Firms

Figure D: This is a line chart titled ‘1-Month Funding Market Spreads for Investment Grade Nonfinancial Firms’. The x-axis measure time and ranges from February 14 to April 29. The y-axis is measured in basis points and ranges from 0 to 600. There are 2 lines plotted on this chart. The first line is labeled “AA nonfinancial CP” and is designated by an orange line. It begins at 0 in February and rises gradually up to a peak of about 150 on March 29. It then drops to near zero by April 7 and remains there until April 29. The second line is labeled “A2/P2 nonfinancial CP” and is designated by a blue line. It starts at zero and rises gradually to about 100 by March 10. It then rises steeply to around 350 by March 12 and stays flat until March 30. It then declines steadily to about 150 on April 12 and remains at that level until the end of the series.

Note: All spreads are to OIS of the same tenor. CP is Commercial Paper and CPFF is the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. MMLF is the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. MMLF operations began on March 23. On the same day, the Federal Reserve announced that the MMLF would be expanded to include negotiable certificates of deposit and variable-rate demand notes. CPFF operations began on April 14. Neither DTCC Solutions LLC nor any of its affiliates shall be responsible for any errors or omissions in any DTCC data included in this publication, regardless of the cause and, in no event, shall DTCC or any of its affiliates be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit, trading loses and opportunity costs) in connection with this publication.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; DTCC Solutions LLC, an affiliate of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.

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Figure E: Emergency Lending Facilities

Billions of dollars

Date PPPLF PDCF MMLF CPFF
3/25/2020 0 27.718 30.634 0
4/1/2020 0 33.05 52.667 0
4/8/2020 0 33.018 53.171 0
4/15/2020 0 33.409 50.656 0.95
4/22/2020 8.009 31.526 48.81 2.71
4/29/2020 19.488 25.504 46.277 3.347

Note: The values shown are outstanding amounts. PPPLF is the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, CPFF is the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, MMLF is the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility and PDCF is the Primary Dealer Credit Facility

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.4.1, "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks."

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F. Corporate Bond Spreads to 10-Year Treasury

Figure F: The chart is titled “Corporate Bond Spreads to 10-Year Treasury.” It measures high-yield spreads by a solid red line. It is measured on the right side y-axis that ranges from 200 to 2200 basis points. It measures triple-b by a solid black line on the left side y-axis that ranges from 50 to 750 basis points. The x-axis ranges from 2007 to 2020. The data are daily. There is a black vertical line on March 23, 2020 labeled PMCCF/SMCCF. There is a second vertical black line at April 9, 2020 labeled PMCCF/SMCC expanded. The High-yield line begins around 400 basis points in 2007. It then jumps to its peak of almost 1700 in 2008. It then drops quickly to 600 in 2010. It then ranges from roughly 400 to 800 from 2010 to 2020 with small spikes in 2012 and 2016. In 2020, the figure zooms in on the data to show the red line going from 400 to roughly 800 in March and leveling off around 600 on April 23, 2020. The Triple-B line begins around 150 basis points in 2007. It then jumps to its peak of almost 650 in 2008. It then drops quickly to 200 in 2010. It then ranges from roughly 200 to 300 from 2010 to 2020 with small spikes in 2012 and 2016. In 2020, the figure zooms in on the data to show the red line going from 150 to roughly 400 in March and leveling off around 250 on April 23, 2020.

Note: The shaded area with top cap represents an expanded window focusing on the period from February 17 onward. The triple-B reflects the effective yield of the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C0A4), and the high-yield reflects the effective yield of the ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index (H0A0). Treasury yields from smoothed yield curve estimated from off-the-run securities. Spreads over 10-year Treasury yield. PMCCF is the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility and SMCCF is the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility.

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

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G. Spreads to Treasuries

Figure G: The chart is titled “Spreads to Treasuries.” The chart has a left and right panel. Both panels plot 1 year GO spreads. On the left panel, the data are monthly. The x-axis ranges from 2004 to 2020 and the y-axis ranges from -3 to 3 percent. The spread is represented by a solid blue line. It begins at 0 percent in 2004. It gradually decreases to -1 in by 2007. In 2008, it increases to 1 percent with a drop to almost zero and back up to 1 percent in the same year. It remains fairly steady from 2009 to 2017 at around 0 percent. From 2017 to 2019 it gradually declines to around -1. In 2020, it jumps back up to above 1 percent in March. The right side panel zooms in on 2020 and shows weekly data. There is a black vertical line in March labeled MMLF Expanded and a black vertical line in April labeled MLF. The data begin at around -0.5 percent in January and remain around that level until March. In March, there is an increase to 2 percent at the same time as the MMLF expanded. There is then a decrease to roughly 1 percent to finish off in April.

Note: MLF is the Municipal Liquidity Facility and MMLF is the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility.

Source: Bond Buyer via Bloomberg L.P.; Municipal Market Advisors, Inc.

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A. Three-Month FX Swap Basis Spreads

Figure A: This chart is titled “Three-month FX Swap Basis Spreads.” The top panel measures JPY, shown by a solid blue line and EUR by a solid black line. The x-axis ranges from 2007 to 2020. The y-axis represent the data measured in basis points. The data are daily. The data for the red line range from 0 to 100 from 2007 to 2019 except for a spike at the end of 2008 to 450 basis points. The data then spikes from around 50 to 250 in early 2020. The EUR line follows a fairly similar pattern to the blue line staying between 0 to 100. The bottom panel shows daily data from March 2020 to April 2020. The panel is a zoomed in version of the top measuring the same data. It is marked by black vertical lines showing the Swap Line rate cut on March 15, 2020, the Swap Line expansion on March 19, 2020, daily Swap auction announcement on March 20, 2020, and the FIMA repo on March 31, 2020.

Note: The basis spreads were calculated using the respective overnight index swap rates. JPY is Japanese Yen and EUR is euro

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York calculations based on data from Bloomberg Finance LP.

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Figure B. Central Bank Dollar Liquidity Swaps outstanding

Billions of dollars

Date Swiss National Bank European Central Bank Bank of Japan Bank of England Other
12/17/2007 0 0 0 0 0
12/18/2007 0 0 0 0 0
12/19/2007 0 0 0 0 0
12/20/2007 14 10 0 0 0
12/21/2007 14 10 0 0 0
12/22/2007 14 10 0 0 0
12/23/2007 14 10 0 0 0
12/24/2007 14 10 0 0 0
12/25/2007 14 10 0 0 0
12/26/2007 14 10 0 0 0
12/27/2007 24 20 0 0 0
12/28/2007 24 20 0 0 0
12/29/2007 24 20 0 0 0
12/30/2007 24 20 0 0 0
12/31/2007 24 20 0 0 0
1/1/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/2/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/3/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/4/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/5/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/6/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/7/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/8/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/9/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/10/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/11/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/12/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/13/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/14/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/15/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/16/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/17/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/18/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/19/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/20/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/21/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/22/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/23/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/24/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/25/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/26/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/27/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/28/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/29/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/30/2008 24 20 0 0 0
1/31/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/1/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/2/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/3/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/4/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/5/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/6/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/7/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/8/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/9/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/10/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/11/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/12/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/13/2008 24 20 0 0 0
2/14/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/15/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/16/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/17/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/18/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/19/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/20/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/21/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/22/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/23/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/24/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/25/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/26/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/27/2008 10 10 0 0 0
2/28/2008 0 0 0 0 0
2/29/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/1/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/2/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/3/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/4/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/5/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/6/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/7/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/8/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/9/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/10/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/11/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/12/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/13/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/14/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/15/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/16/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/17/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/18/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/19/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/20/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/21/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/22/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/23/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/24/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/25/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/26/2008 0 0 0 0 0
3/27/2008 21 15 0 0 0
3/28/2008 21 15 0 0 0
3/29/2008 21 15 0 0 0
3/30/2008 21 15 0 0 0
3/31/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/1/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/2/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/3/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/4/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/5/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/6/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/7/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/8/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/9/2008 21 15 0 0 0
4/10/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/11/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/12/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/13/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/14/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/15/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/16/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/17/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/18/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/19/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/20/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/21/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/22/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/23/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/24/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/25/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/26/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/27/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/28/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/29/2008 36 30 0 0 0
4/30/2008 36 30 0 0 0
5/1/2008 36 30 0 0 0
5/2/2008 36 30 0 0 0
5/3/2008 36 30 0 0 0
5/4/2008 36 30 0 0 0
5/5/2008 36 30 0 0 0
5/6/2008 36 30 0 0 0
5/7/2008 36 30 0 0 0
5/8/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/9/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/10/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/11/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/12/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/13/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/14/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/15/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/16/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/17/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/18/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/19/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/20/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/21/2008 52 40 0 0 0
5/22/2008 62 50 0 0 0
5/23/2008 62 50 0 0 0
5/24/2008 62 50 0 0 0
5/25/2008 62 50 0 0 0
5/26/2008 62 50 0 0 0
5/27/2008 62 50 0 0 0
5/28/2008 62 50 0 0 0
5/29/2008 62 50 0 0 0
5/30/2008 62 50 0 0 0
5/31/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/1/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/2/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/3/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/4/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/5/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/6/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/7/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/8/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/9/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/10/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/11/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/12/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/13/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/14/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/15/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/16/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/17/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/18/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/19/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/20/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/21/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/22/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/23/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/24/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/25/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/26/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/27/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/28/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/29/2008 62 50 0 0 0
6/30/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/1/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/2/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/3/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/4/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/5/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/6/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/7/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/8/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/9/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/10/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/11/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/12/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/13/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/14/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/15/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/16/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/17/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/18/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/19/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/20/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/21/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/22/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/23/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/24/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/25/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/26/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/27/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/28/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/29/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/30/2008 62 50 0 0 0
7/31/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/1/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/2/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/3/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/4/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/5/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/6/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/7/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/8/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/9/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/10/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/11/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/12/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/13/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/14/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/15/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/16/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/17/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/18/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/19/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/20/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/21/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/22/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/23/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/24/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/25/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/26/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/27/2008 67 55 0 0 0
8/28/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/29/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/30/2008 62 50 0 0 0
8/31/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/1/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/2/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/3/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/4/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/5/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/6/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/7/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/8/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/9/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/10/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/11/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/12/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/13/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/14/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/15/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/16/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/17/2008 62 50 0 0 0
9/18/2008 126.0500031 104.0500031 14.05000019 14.05000019 0
9/19/2008 132.8000031 110.8000031 20.79999924 20.79999924 0
9/20/2008 132.8000031 110.8000031 20.79999924 20.79999924 0
9/21/2008 132.8000031 110.8000031 20.79999924 20.79999924 0
9/22/2008 138.1499939 116.1500015 26.14999962 26.14999962 0
9/23/2008 142.1009979 120.1009979 30.10099983 30.10099983 0
9/24/2008 141.8999939 119.9000015 29.89999962 29.89999962 0
9/25/2008 183.6670074 159.6670074 64.66699982 35.04499817 0
9/26/2008 215.5220032 189.621994 69.62200165 40 0
9/27/2008 215.5220032 189.621994 69.62200165 40 0
9/28/2008 215.5220032 189.621994 69.62200165 40 0
9/29/2008 226.7599945 199.6210022 79.6210022 49.99900055 10
9/30/2008 288.2630005 259.3630066 84.6210022 54.99900055 15
10/1/2008 286.4320068 257.5320129 95.53201294 65.91000366 15
10/2/2008 307.6380005 279.696991 99.99700165 70.375 18
10/3/2008 267.1908875 247.0108948 99.23999786 69.61799622 18
10/4/2008 267.1908875 247.0108948 99.23999786 69.61799622 18
10/5/2008 267.1908875 247.0108948 99.23999786 69.61799622 18
10/6/2008 259.3200073 237.9589996 101.0589981 71.43699646 18
10/7/2008 283.0339966 259.0350037 123.4850006 93.86299896 18
10/8/2008 335.1839905 311.1839905 126.1839981 96.56199646 18
10/9/2008 391.5409851 365.5409851 152.5410004 102.9189987 23
10/10/2008 396.4779968 370.4819946 176.1040039 126.4820023 33
10/11/2008 396.4779968 370.4819946 176.1040039 126.4820023 33
10/12/2008 396.4779968 370.4819946 176.1040039 126.4820023 33
10/13/2008 396.4779968 370.4819946 176.1040039 126.4820023 33
10/14/2008 402.5354919 379.0845032 176.3809967 126.7590027 33
10/15/2008 406.8819885 381.9190063 177.6190033 127.9970016 33
10/16/2008 477.4649963 450.5320129 176.9069977 127.2850037 33
10/17/2008 481.5299988 457.256012 178.1309967 128.5090027 43
10/18/2008 481.5299988 457.256012 178.1309967 128.5090027 43
10/19/2008 481.5299988 457.256012 178.1309967 128.5090027 43
10/20/2008 484.9819946 460.9970093 177.871994 128.25 43
10/21/2008 478.9729919 454.6719971 175.0469971 125.4250031 43
10/22/2008 477.1589966 453.1719971 172.746994 123.125 43
10/23/2008 500.4114075 474.5513916 195.9929962 125.8249969 45.5
10/24/2008 504.4124146 474.7463989 199.3880005 129.2200012 55.5
10/25/2008 504.4124146 474.7463989 199.3880005 129.2200012 55.5
10/26/2008 504.4124146 474.7463989 199.3880005 129.2200012 55.5
10/27/2008 504.1633911 473.1264038 197.1679993 127 53.29
10/28/2008 506.194397 475.1364136 202.1779938 132.0099945 58.29
10/29/2008 498.8604126 472.7363892 202.1779938 132.0099945 58.29
10/30/2008 529.9459229 501.2589111 199.878006 129.7100067 58.29
10/31/2008 533.5639038 505.0838928 209.7030029 139.5350037 67.17
11/1/2008 533.5639038 505.0838928 209.7030029 139.5350037 67.17
11/2/2008 533.5639038 505.0838928 209.7030029 139.5350037 67.17
11/3/2008 529.3900146 501.783905 206.4029999 136.2350006 64.17
11/4/2008 529.0009155 501.0838928 206.4029999 136.2350006 64.17
11/5/2008 528.3549194 499.9338989 206.253006 136.0850067 64.17
11/6/2008 582.7612305 559.99823 251.5169983 137.1100006 65.195
11/7/2008 570.1661987 547.4031982 238.121994 123.7149963 65.195
11/8/2008 570.1661987 547.4031982 238.121994 123.7149963 65.195
11/9/2008 570.1661987 547.4031982 238.121994 123.7149963 65.195
11/10/2008 569.4161987 546.6531982 237.871994 123.4649963 65.195
11/11/2008 569.4161987 546.6531982 237.871994 123.4649963 65.195
11/12/2008 569.7161865 546.953186 237.871994 123.4649963 65.195
11/13/2008 568.5903931 546.9373779 237.871994 123.4649963 65.195
11/14/2008 563.4404297 541.7874146 232.7220001 118.3150024 65.195
11/15/2008 563.4404297 541.7874146 232.7220001 118.3150024 65.195
11/16/2008 563.4404297 541.7874146 232.7220001 118.3150024 65.195
11/17/2008 564.0903931 542.4373779 232.7220001 118.3150024 65.195
11/18/2008 563.0903931 541.4373779 232.7220001 118.3150024 65.195
11/19/2008 562.0903931 540.4373779 232.7220001 118.3150024 65.195
11/20/2008 488.3103027 472.8682861 220.7299957 123.7399979 70.62
11/21/2008 480.4852905 465.0433044 212.9049988 115.9150009 70.62
11/22/2008 480.4852905 465.0433044 212.9049988 115.9150009 70.62
11/23/2008 480.4852905 465.0433044 212.9049988 115.9150009 70.62
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11/29/2008 506.8187866 485.967804 221.8549957 124.8649979 70.57
11/30/2008 506.8187866 485.967804 221.8549957 124.8649979 70.57
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7/30/2009 84.09619904 84.07720184 35.82500076 27.71199989 27.174
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8/10/2009 76.71130371 76.69230652 28 19.88699913 19.874
8/11/2009 75.21130371 75.19230652 26.5 18.38699913 18.374
8/12/2009 75.21130371 75.19230652 26.5 18.38699913 18.374
8/13/2009 69.14129639 69.12229919 19.69799995 17.08699989 17.074
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8/19/2009 69.14129639 69.12229919 19.69799995 17.08699989 17.074
8/20/2009 60.20999908 60.19100189 17.65500069 15.04399967 15.031
8/21/2009 60.20999908 60.19100189 17.65500069 15.04399967 15.031
8/22/2009 60.20999908 60.19100189 17.65500069 15.04399967 15.031
8/23/2009 60.20999908 60.19100189 17.65500069 15.04399967 15.031
8/24/2009 60.20999908 60.19100189 17.65500069 15.04399967 15.031
8/25/2009 60.20999908 60.19100189 17.65500069 15.04399967 15.031
8/26/2009 60.20999908 60.19100189 17.65500069 15.04399967 15.031
8/27/2009 63.28699875 63.27700043 17.16500092 15.04399967 15.031
8/28/2009 63.28699875 63.27700043 17.16500092 15.04399967 15.031
8/29/2009 63.28699875 63.27700043 17.16500092 15.04399967 15.031
8/30/2009 63.28699875 63.27700043 17.16500092 15.04399967 15.031
8/31/2009 63.28699875 63.27700043 17.16500092 15.04399967 15.031
9/1/2009 63.28699875 63.27700043 17.16500092 15.04399967 15.031
9/2/2009 63.28699875 63.27700043 17.16500092 15.04399967 15.031
9/3/2009 61.60699844 61.59700012 15.96500015 13.84399986 13.831
9/4/2009 61.60699844 61.59700012 15.96500015 13.84399986 13.831
9/5/2009 61.60699844 61.59700012 15.96500015 13.84399986 13.831
9/6/2009 61.60699844 61.59700012 15.96500015 13.84399986 13.831
9/7/2009 61.60699844 61.59700012 15.96500015 13.84399986 13.831
9/8/2009 61.60699844 61.59700012 15.96500015 13.84399986 13.831
9/9/2009 61.60699844 61.59700012 15.96500015 13.84399986 13.831
9/10/2009 61.10100174 61.10100174 15.88399982 13.84399986 13.831
9/11/2009 61.10100174 61.10100174 15.88399982 13.84399986 13.831
9/12/2009 61.10100174 61.10100174 15.88399982 13.84399986 13.831
9/13/2009 61.10100174 61.10100174 15.88399982 13.84399986 13.831
9/14/2009 61.10100174 61.10100174 15.88399982 13.84399986 13.831
9/15/2009 61.10100174 61.10100174 15.88399982 13.84399986 13.831
9/16/2009 61.10100174 61.10100174 15.88399982 13.84399986 13.831
9/17/2009 59.12129974 59.12129974 14.15400028 12.11400032 12.101
9/18/2009 59.12129974 59.12129974 14.15400028 12.11400032 12.101
9/19/2009 59.12129974 59.12129974 14.15400028 12.11400032 12.101
9/20/2009 59.12129974 59.12129974 14.15400028 12.11400032 12.101
9/21/2009 59.12129974 59.12129974 14.15400028 12.11400032 12.101
9/22/2009 59.12129974 59.12129974 14.15400028 12.11400032 12.101
9/23/2009 59.12129974 59.12129974 14.15400028 12.11400032 12.101
9/24/2009 56.75630188 56.75630188 13.09399986 11.56400013 11.551
9/25/2009 56.75630188 56.75630188 13.09399986 11.56400013 11.551
9/26/2009 56.75630188 56.75630188 13.09399986 11.56400013 11.551
9/27/2009 56.75630188 56.75630188 13.09399986 11.56400013 11.551
9/28/2009 56.75630188 56.75630188 13.09399986 11.56400013 11.551
9/29/2009 56.75630188 56.75630188 13.09399986 11.56400013 11.551
9/30/2009 56.75630188 56.75630188 13.09399986 11.56400013 11.551
10/1/2009 49.8307991 49.8307991 12.09399986 10.56400013 10.551
10/2/2009 49.8307991 49.8307991 12.09399986 10.56400013 10.551
10/3/2009 49.8307991 49.8307991 12.09399986 10.56400013 10.551
10/4/2009 49.8307991 49.8307991 12.09399986 10.56400013 10.551
10/5/2009 49.8307991 49.8307991 12.09399986 10.56400013 10.551
10/6/2009 49.8307991 49.8307991 12.09399986 10.56400013 10.551
10/7/2009 49.8307991 49.8307991 12.09399986 10.56400013 10.551
10/8/2009 43.62680054 43.62680054 11.00899982 9.563999176 9.551
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10/10/2009 43.62680054 43.62680054 11.00899982 9.563999176 9.551
10/11/2009 43.62680054 43.62680054 11.00899982 9.563999176 9.551
10/12/2009 43.62680054 43.62680054 11.00899982 9.563999176 9.551
10/13/2009 43.62680054 43.62680054 11.00899982 9.563999176 9.551
10/14/2009 43.62680054 43.62680054 11.00899982 9.563999176 9.551
10/15/2009 41.63660049 41.63660049 10.4289999 8.983999252 8.971
10/16/2009 41.63660049 41.63660049 10.4289999 8.983999252 8.971
10/17/2009 41.63660049 41.63660049 10.4289999 8.983999252 8.971
10/18/2009 41.63660049 41.63660049 10.4289999 8.983999252 8.971
10/19/2009 41.63660049 41.63660049 10.4289999 8.983999252 8.971
10/20/2009 41.63660049 41.63660049 10.4289999 8.983999252 8.971
10/21/2009 41.63660049 41.63660049 10.4289999 8.983999252 8.971
10/22/2009 35.62950134 35.62950134 9.918999672 8.983999252 8.971
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10/24/2009 32.92950058 32.92950058 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
10/25/2009 32.92950058 32.92950058 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
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10/27/2009 32.92950058 32.92950058 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
10/28/2009 32.92950058 32.92950058 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
10/29/2009 31.88439941 31.88439941 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
10/30/2009 31.88439941 31.88439941 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
10/31/2009 31.88439941 31.88439941 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
11/1/2009 31.88439941 31.88439941 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
11/2/2009 31.88439941 31.88439941 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
11/3/2009 31.88439941 31.88439941 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
11/4/2009 31.88439941 31.88439941 7.218999863 6.28399992 6.271
11/5/2009 29.08799934 29.08799934 5.899000168 5.084000111 5.071
11/6/2009 29.08799934 29.08799934 5.899000168 5.084000111 5.071
11/7/2009 29.08799934 29.08799934 5.899000168 5.084000111 5.071
11/8/2009 29.08799934 29.08799934 5.899000168 5.084000111 5.071
11/9/2009 29.08799934 29.08799934 5.899000168 5.084000111 5.071
11/10/2009 29.08799934 29.08799934 5.899000168 5.084000111 5.071
11/11/2009 29.08799934 29.08799934 5.899000168 5.084000111 5.071
11/12/2009 28.27799988 28.27799988 5.298999786 4.484000206 4.471
11/13/2009 28.27799988 28.27799988 5.298999786 4.484000206 4.471
11/14/2009 28.27799988 28.27799988 5.298999786 4.484000206 4.471
11/15/2009 28.27799988 28.27799988 5.298999786 4.484000206 4.471
11/16/2009 28.27799988 28.27799988 5.298999786 4.484000206 4.471
11/17/2009 28.27799988 28.27799988 5.298999786 4.484000206 4.471
11/18/2009 28.27799988 28.27799988 5.298999786 4.484000206 4.471
11/19/2009 25.81100082 25.81100082 4.899000168 4.484000206 4.471
11/20/2009 25.81100082 25.81100082 4.899000168 4.484000206 4.471
11/21/2009 25.81100082 25.81100082 4.899000168 4.484000206 4.471
11/22/2009 25.81100082 25.81100082 4.899000168 4.484000206 4.471
11/23/2009 25.81100082 25.81100082 4.899000168 4.484000206 4.471
11/24/2009 25.81100082 25.81100082 4.899000168 4.484000206 4.471
11/25/2009 25.81100082 25.81100082 4.899000168 4.484000206 4.471
11/26/2009 25.81100082 25.81100082 4.899000168 4.484000206 4.471
11/27/2009 23.03800011 23.03800011 4.098999977 3.684000015 3.671
11/28/2009 23.03800011 23.03800011 4.098999977 3.684000015 3.671
11/29/2009 23.03800011 23.03800011 4.098999977 3.684000015 3.671
11/30/2009 23.03800011 23.03800011 4.098999977 3.684000015 3.671
12/1/2009 23.03800011 23.03800011 4.098999977 3.684000015 3.671
12/2/2009 23.03800011 23.03800011 4.098999977 3.684000015 3.671
12/3/2009 16.51799965 16.51799965 3.928999901 3.684000015 3.671
12/4/2009 16.50499916 16.50499916 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/5/2009 16.50499916 16.50499916 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/6/2009 16.50499916 16.50499916 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/7/2009 16.50499916 16.50499916 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/8/2009 16.50499916 16.50499916 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/9/2009 16.50499916 16.50499916 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/10/2009 14.49199963 14.49199963 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/11/2009 14.49199963 14.49199963 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/12/2009 14.49199963 14.49199963 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/13/2009 14.49199963 14.49199963 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/14/2009 14.49199963 14.49199963 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/15/2009 14.49199963 14.49199963 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
12/16/2009 14.49199963 14.49199963 3.915999889 3.671000004 3.671
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12/19/2009 12.37199974 12.37199974 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
12/20/2009 12.37199974 12.37199974 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
12/21/2009 12.37199974 12.37199974 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
12/22/2009 12.37199974 12.37199974 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
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12/25/2009 10.27200031 10.27200031 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
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12/30/2009 10.27200031 10.27200031 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
12/31/2009 10.27200031 10.27200031 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
1/1/2010 10.27200031 10.27200031 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
1/2/2010 10.27200031 10.27200031 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
1/3/2010 10.27200031 10.27200031 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
1/4/2010 10.27200031 10.27200031 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
1/5/2010 10.27200031 10.27200031 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
1/6/2010 10.27200031 10.27200031 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
1/7/2010 9.116000175 9.116000175 3.766000032 3.220999956 3.221
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1/14/2010 1.25 1.25 0.100000001 0 0
1/15/2010 1.25 1.25 0.100000001 0 0
1/16/2010 1.25 1.25 0.100000001 0 0
1/17/2010 1.25 1.25 0.100000001 0 0
1/18/2010 1.25 1.25 0.100000001 0 0
1/19/2010 1.25 1.25 0.100000001 0 0
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1/22/2010 0.174999997 0.174999997 0.100000001 0 0
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1/24/2010 0.174999997 0.174999997 0.100000001 0 0
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1/28/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
1/29/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
1/30/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
1/31/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
2/1/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
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2/3/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
2/4/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
2/5/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
2/6/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
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2/9/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
2/10/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
2/11/2010 0.100000001 0.100000001 0.100000001 0 0
2/12/2010 0 0 0 0 0
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2/14/2010 0 0 0 0 0
2/15/2010 0 0 0 0 0
2/16/2010 0 0 0 0 0
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2/28/2010 0 0 0 0 0
3/1/2010 0 0 0 0 0
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3/3/2010 0 0 0 0 0
3/4/2010 0 0 0 0 0
3/5/2010 0 0 0 0 0
3/6/2010 0 0 0 0 0
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5/10/2010 0 0 0 0 0
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11/10/2012 12.12069988 12.12069988 0.001 0 0
11/11/2012 12.12069988 12.12069988 0.001 0 0
11/12/2012 12.12069988 12.12069988 0.001 0 0
11/13/2012 12.12069988 12.12069988 0.001 0 0
11/14/2012 12.12069988 12.12069988 0.001 0 0
11/15/2012 12.25269985 12.25269985 0.001 0 0
11/16/2012 12.2517004 12.2517004 0 0 0
11/17/2012 12.2517004 12.2517004 0 0 0
11/18/2012 12.2517004 12.2517004 0 0 0
11/19/2012 12.2517004 12.2517004 0 0 0
11/20/2012 12.2517004 12.2517004 0 0 0
11/21/2012 12.2517004 12.2517004 0 0 0
11/22/2012 12.2517004 12.2517004 0 0 0
11/23/2012 12.21170044 12.21170044 0 0 0
11/24/2012 12.21170044 12.21170044 0 0 0
11/25/2012 12.21170044 12.21170044 0 0 0
11/26/2012 12.21170044 12.21170044 0 0 0
11/27/2012 12.21170044 12.21170044 0 0 0
11/28/2012 12.21170044 12.21170044 0 0 0
11/29/2012 12.18130016 12.18130016 0.003 0 0
11/30/2012 12.18130016 12.18130016 0.003 0 0
12/1/2012 12.18130016 12.18130016 0.003 0 0
12/2/2012 12.18130016 12.18130016 0.003 0 0
12/3/2012 12.18130016 12.18130016 0.003 0 0
12/4/2012 12.18130016 12.18130016 0.003 0 0
12/5/2012 12.18130016 12.18130016 0.003 0 0
12/6/2012 12.36830044 12.36830044 0 0 0
12/7/2012 12.36830044 12.36830044 0 0 0
12/8/2012 12.36830044 12.36830044 0 0 0
12/9/2012 12.36830044 12.36830044 0 0 0
12/10/2012 12.36830044 12.36830044 0 0 0
12/11/2012 12.36830044 12.36830044 0 0 0
12/12/2012 12.36830044 12.36830044 0 0 0
12/13/2012 11.54930019 11.54930019 0.001 0 0
12/14/2012 11.54930019 11.54930019 0.001 0 0
12/15/2012 11.54930019 11.54930019 0.001 0 0
12/16/2012 11.54930019 11.54930019 0.001 0 0
12/17/2012 11.54930019 11.54930019 0.001 0 0
12/18/2012 11.54930019 11.54930019 0.001 0 0
12/19/2012 11.54930019 11.54930019 0.001 0 0
12/20/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/21/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/22/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/23/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/24/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/25/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/26/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/27/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/28/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/29/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/30/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
12/31/2012 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
1/1/2013 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
1/2/2013 8.889300346 8.889300346 0.001 0 0
1/3/2013 8.991101265 8.991101265 0.001 0 0
1/4/2013 8.991101265 8.991101265 0.001 0 0
1/5/2013 8.991101265 8.991101265 0.001 0 0
1/6/2013 8.991101265 8.991101265 0.001 0 0
1/7/2013 8.991101265 8.991101265 0.001 0 0
1/8/2013 8.991101265 8.991101265 0.001 0 0
1/9/2013 8.991101265 8.991101265 0.001 0 0
1/10/2013 8.070100784 8.070100784 0 0 0
1/11/2013 8.070100784 8.070100784 0 0 0
1/12/2013 8.070100784 8.070100784 0 0 0
1/13/2013 8.070100784 8.070100784 0 0 0
1/14/2013 8.070100784 8.070100784 0 0 0
1/15/2013 8.070100784 8.070100784 0 0 0
1/16/2013 8.070100784 8.070100784 0 0 0
1/17/2013 8.071101189 8.071101189 0.001 0 0
1/18/2013 8.071101189 8.071101189 0.001 0 0
1/19/2013 8.071101189 8.071101189 0.001 0 0
1/20/2013 8.071101189 8.071101189 0.001 0 0
1/21/2013 8.071101189 8.071101189 0.001 0 0
1/22/2013 8.071101189 8.071101189 0.001 0 0
1/23/2013 8.071101189 8.071101189 0.001 0 0
1/24/2013 8.031101227 8.031101227 0.001 0 0
1/25/2013 8.030100822 8.030100822 0 0 0
1/26/2013 8.030100822 8.030100822 0 0 0
1/27/2013 8.030100822 8.030100822 0 0 0
1/28/2013 8.030100822 8.030100822 0 0 0
1/29/2013 8.030100822 8.030100822 0 0 0
1/30/2013 8.030100822 8.030100822 0 0 0
1/31/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/1/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/2/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/3/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/4/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/5/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/6/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/7/2013 5.192800045 5.192800045 0.001 0 0
2/8/2013 5.192800045 5.192800045 0.001 0 0
2/9/2013 5.192800045 5.192800045 0.001 0 0
2/10/2013 5.192800045 5.192800045 0.001 0 0
2/11/2013 5.192800045 5.192800045 0.001 0 0
2/12/2013 5.192800045 5.192800045 0.001 0 0
2/13/2013 5.192800045 5.192800045 0.001 0 0
2/14/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/15/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/16/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/17/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/18/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/19/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/20/2013 5.191800117 5.191800117 0 0 0
2/21/2013 4.191800117 4.191800117 0 0 0
2/22/2013 4.193799973 4.193799973 0.002 0 0
2/23/2013 4.193799973 4.193799973 0.002 0 0
2/24/2013 4.193799973 4.193799973 0.002 0 0
2/25/2013 4.193799973 4.193799973 0.002 0 0
2/26/2013 4.193799973 4.193799973 0.002 0 0
2/27/2013 4.193799973 4.193799973 0.002 0 0
2/28/2013 8.342700005 8.342700005 0 0 0
3/1/2013 8.342700005 8.342700005 0 0 0
3/2/2013 8.342700005 8.342700005 0 0 0
3/3/2013 8.342700005 8.342700005 0 0 0
3/4/2013 8.342700005 8.342700005 0 0 0
3/5/2013 8.342700005 8.342700005 0 0 0
3/6/2013 8.342700005 8.342700005 0 0 0
3/7/2013 7.987699986 7.987699986 0 0 0
3/8/2013 7.987699986 7.987699986 0 0 0
3/9/2013 7.987699986 7.987699986 0 0 0
3/10/2013 7.987699986 7.987699986 0 0 0
3/11/2013 7.987699986 7.987699986 0 0 0
3/12/2013 7.987699986 7.987699986 0 0 0
3/13/2013 7.987699986 7.987699986 0 0 0
3/14/2013 7.964700222 7.964700222 0.002 0 0
3/15/2013 7.964700222 7.964700222 0.002 0 0
3/16/2013 7.964700222 7.964700222 0.002 0 0
3/17/2013 7.964700222 7.964700222 0.002 0 0
3/18/2013 7.964700222 7.964700222 0.002 0 0
3/19/2013 7.964700222 7.964700222 0.002 0 0
3/20/2013 7.964700222 7.964700222 0.002 0 0
3/21/2013 8.264699936 8.264699936 0.002 0 0
3/22/2013 8.264699936 8.264699936 0.002 0 0
3/23/2013 8.264699936 8.264699936 0.002 0 0
3/24/2013 8.264699936 8.264699936 0.002 0 0
3/25/2013 8.264699936 8.264699936 0.002 0 0
3/26/2013 8.264699936 8.264699936 0.002 0 0
3/27/2013 8.264699936 8.264699936 0.002 0 0
3/28/2013 8.055500031 8.055500031 0 0 0
3/29/2013 8.055500031 8.055500031 0 0 0
3/30/2013 8.055500031 8.055500031 0 0 0
3/31/2013 8.055500031 8.055500031 0 0 0
4/1/2013 8.055500031 8.055500031 0 0 0
4/2/2013 8.055500031 8.055500031 0 0 0
4/3/2013 8.055500031 8.055500031 0 0 0
4/4/2013 8.750499725 8.750499725 0 0 0
4/5/2013 8.750499725 8.750499725 0 0 0
4/6/2013 8.750499725 8.750499725 0 0 0
4/7/2013 8.750499725 8.750499725 0 0 0
4/8/2013 8.750499725 8.750499725 0 0 0
4/9/2013 8.750499725 8.750499725 0 0 0
4/10/2013 8.750499725 8.750499725 0 0 0
4/11/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/12/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/13/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/14/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/15/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/16/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/17/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/18/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/19/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/20/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/21/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/22/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/23/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/24/2013 7.551499844 7.551499844 0.001 0 0
4/25/2013 8.575499535 8.575499535 0 0 0
4/26/2013 8.575499535 8.575499535 0 0 0
4/27/2013 8.575499535 8.575499535 0 0 0
4/28/2013 8.575499535 8.575499535 0 0 0
4/29/2013 8.575499535 8.575499535 0 0 0
4/30/2013 8.575499535 8.575499535 0 0 0
5/1/2013 8.575499535 8.575499535 0 0 0
5/2/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/3/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/4/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/5/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/6/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/7/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/8/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/9/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/10/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/11/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/12/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/13/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/14/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/15/2013 7.275499821 7.275499821 0 0 0
5/16/2013 7.276500225 7.276500225 0.001 0 0
5/17/2013 7.276500225 7.276500225 0.001 0 0
5/18/2013 7.276500225 7.276500225 0.001 0 0
5/19/2013 7.276500225 7.276500225 0.001 0 0
5/20/2013 7.276500225 7.276500225 0.001 0 0
5/21/2013 7.276500225 7.276500225 0.001 0 0
5/22/2013 7.276500225 7.276500225 0.001 0 0
5/23/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
5/24/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
5/25/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
5/26/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
5/27/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
5/28/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
5/29/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
5/30/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
5/31/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/1/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/2/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/3/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/4/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/5/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/6/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/7/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/8/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/9/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/10/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/11/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/12/2013 1.770499945 1.770499945 0 0 0
6/13/2013 1.771499991 1.771499991 0.001 0 0
6/14/2013 1.771499991 1.771499991 0.001 0 0
6/15/2013 1.771499991 1.771499991 0.001 0 0
6/16/2013 1.771499991 1.771499991 0.001 0 0
6/17/2013 1.771499991 1.771499991 0.001 0 0
6/18/2013 1.771499991 1.771499991 0.001 0 0
6/19/2013 1.771499991 1.771499991 0.001 0 0
6/20/2013 1.479500055 1.479500055 0.001 0 0
6/21/2013 1.479500055 1.479500055 0.001 0 0
6/22/2013 1.479500055 1.479500055 0.001 0 0
6/23/2013 1.479500055 1.479500055 0.001 0 0
6/24/2013 1.479500055 1.479500055 0.001 0 0
6/25/2013 1.479500055 1.479500055 0.001 0 0
6/26/2013 1.479500055 1.479500055 0.001 0 0
6/27/2013 1.678500056 1.678500056 0 0 0
6/28/2013 1.678500056 1.678500056 0 0 0
6/29/2013 1.678500056 1.678500056 0 0 0
6/30/2013 1.678500056 1.678500056 0 0 0

Note: Swap operations are being conducted daily.

Source: Bank of England; European Central Bank; Bank of Japan; Swiss National Bank; and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.4.1, "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances."

Figure B: Central Bank Liquidity Swaps Outstanding
Date Swiss National Bank European Central Bank Bank of Japan Bank of England Other
3/19/2020 162.49 159.87 47.78 15.45 0
3/20/2020 162.49 159.87 47.78 15.45 0
3/21/2020 162.49 159.87 47.78 15.45 0
3/22/2020 162.49 159.87 47.78 15.45 0
3/23/2020 162.49 159.87 47.78 15.45 0
3/24/2020 163.22 159.89 47.78 15.46 0
3/25/2020 206.05 202.41 86.19 19.01 0
3/26/2020 308.05 304.62 179.59 25.19 0
3/27/2020 317.67 313.73 185.49 26.15 0.05
3/28/2020 317.67 313.73 185.49 26.15 0.05
3/29/2020 317.67 313.73 185.49 26.15 0.05
3/30/2020 327.24 322.58 192.18 30.58 3.97
3/31/2020 357.67 351.58 214.55 39.85 8.24
4/1/2020 348.54 342.25 206.39 42.43 10.88
4/2/2020 395.85 386.71 244.80 57.29 19.60
4/3/2020 394.07 385.13 245.49 61.99 25.20
4/4/2020 394.07 385.13 245.49 61.99 25.20
4/5/2020 394.07 385.13 245.49 61.99 25.20
4/6/2020 391.49 382.00 244.36 61.99 25.70
4/7/2020 369.92 361.00 227.74 52.72 21.43
4/8/2020 358.08 349.34 218.09 54.29 26.50
4/9/2020 396.65 386.00 245.37 52.06 30.12
4/10/2020 396.78 386.13 245.50 52.06 30.12
4/11/2020 396.78 386.13 245.50 52.06 30.12
4/12/2020 396.78 386.13 245.50 52.06 30.12
4/13/2020 396.64 385.99 245.37 52.06 30.12
4/14/2020 389.51 379.37 240.72 52.56 30.62
4/15/2020 378.29 368.34 230.14 53.93 32.00
4/16/2020 400.92 389.64 250.30 54.28 32.00
4/17/2020 404.40 393.05 253.27 57.07 34.79
4/18/2020 404.40 393.05 253.27 57.07 34.79
4/19/2020 404.40 393.05 253.27 57.07 34.79
4/20/2020 409.60 398.19 258.21 62.34 35.06
4/21/2020 410.47 399.51 258.25 62.34 35.06
4/22/2020 409.71 398.89 258.11 62.11 34.83
4/23/2020 432.30 420.99 279.20 64.22 36.94
4/24/2020 432.43 421.18 278.91 64.22 36.94
4/25/2020 432.43 421.18 278.91 64.22 36.94
4/26/2020 432.43 421.18 278.91 64.22 36.94
4/27/2020 436.23 425.03 282.77 68.02 40.49
4/28/2020 435.01 424.84 282.45 68.03 40.49
4/29/2020 438.95 428.79 286.39 71.98 44.43
4/30/2020 446.17 435.56 292.36 72.03 44.43

Note: Swap operations are being conducted daily.

Source: Bank of England; European Central Bank; Bank of Japan; Swiss National Bank; and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.4.1, "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances."

Return to text
1-1. Yields on Nominal Treasury Securities

percent, annual rate

Date 2-Year Treasury Yield 10-Year Treasury Yield
1/16/1997 6.01 6.58
2/15/1997 5.90 6.42
3/16/1997 6.22 6.69
4/16/1997 6.45 6.89
5/16/1997 6.28 6.71
6/16/1997 6.09 6.49
7/16/1997 5.89 6.22
8/16/1997 5.94 6.30
9/16/1997 5.88 6.21
10/16/1997 5.77 6.03
11/16/1997 5.71 5.88
12/16/1997 5.72 5.81
1/16/1998 5.36 5.54
2/15/1998 5.42 5.57
3/16/1998 5.56 5.65
4/16/1998 5.56 5.64
5/16/1998 5.59 5.65
6/16/1998 5.52 5.50
7/16/1998 5.46 5.46
8/16/1998 5.27 5.34
9/16/1998 4.67 4.81
10/16/1998 4.09 4.53
11/16/1998 4.54 4.83
12/16/1998 4.51 4.65
1/16/1999 4.62 4.72
2/15/1999 4.88 5.00
3/16/1999 5.05 5.23
4/16/1999 4.98 5.18
5/16/1999 5.25 5.54
6/16/1999 5.62 5.90
7/16/1999 5.55 5.79
8/16/1999 5.68 5.94
9/16/1999 5.66 5.92
10/16/1999 5.86 6.11
11/16/1999 5.86 6.03
12/16/1999 6.10 6.28
1/16/2000 6.44 6.66
2/15/2000 6.61 6.52
3/16/2000 6.53 6.26
4/16/2000 6.40 5.99
5/16/2000 6.81 6.44
6/16/2000 6.48 6.10
7/16/2000 6.34 6.05
8/16/2000 6.23 5.83
9/16/2000 6.08 5.80
10/16/2000 5.91 5.74
11/16/2000 5.88 5.72
12/16/2000 5.35 5.24
1/16/2001 4.76 5.16
2/15/2001 4.66 5.10
3/16/2001 4.34 4.89
4/16/2001 4.23 5.14
5/16/2001 4.26 5.39
6/16/2001 4.08 5.28
7/16/2001 4.04 5.24
8/16/2001 3.76 4.97
9/16/2001 3.12 4.73
10/16/2001 2.73 4.57
11/16/2001 2.78 4.65
12/16/2001 3.11 5.09
1/16/2002 3.03 5.04
2/15/2002 3.02 4.91
3/16/2002 3.56 5.28
4/16/2002 3.42 5.21
5/16/2002 3.26 5.16
6/16/2002 2.99 4.93
7/16/2002 2.56 4.65
8/16/2002 2.13 4.26
9/16/2002 2.00 3.87
10/16/2002 1.91 3.94
11/16/2002 1.92 4.05
12/16/2002 1.84 4.03
1/16/2003 1.74 4.05
2/15/2003 1.63 3.90
3/16/2003 1.57 3.81
4/16/2003 1.62 3.96
5/16/2003 1.42 3.57
6/16/2003 1.23 3.33
7/16/2003 1.47 3.98
8/16/2003 1.86 4.45
9/16/2003 1.71 4.27
10/16/2003 1.75 4.29
11/16/2003 1.93 4.30
12/16/2003 1.91 4.27
1/16/2004 1.76 4.15
2/15/2004 1.74 4.08
3/16/2004 1.58 3.83
4/16/2004 2.07 4.35
5/16/2004 2.53 4.72
6/16/2004 2.76 4.73
7/16/2004 2.64 4.50
8/16/2004 2.51 4.28
9/16/2004 2.53 4.13
10/16/2004 2.58 4.10
11/16/2004 2.85 4.19
12/16/2004 3.01 4.23
1/16/2005 3.22 4.22
2/15/2005 3.38 4.17
3/16/2005 3.73 4.50
4/16/2005 3.65 4.34
5/16/2005 3.64 4.14
6/16/2005 3.64 4.00
7/16/2005 3.87 4.18
8/16/2005 4.04 4.26
9/16/2005 3.95 4.20
10/16/2005 4.27 4.46
11/16/2005 4.42 4.54
12/16/2005 4.40 4.47
1/16/2006 4.40 4.42
2/15/2006 4.67 4.57
3/16/2006 4.73 4.72
4/16/2006 4.89 4.99
5/16/2006 4.97 5.11
6/16/2006 5.12 5.11
7/16/2006 5.12 5.09
8/16/2006 4.90 4.88
9/16/2006 4.77 4.72
10/16/2006 4.80 4.73
11/16/2006 4.74 4.60
12/16/2006 4.67 4.56
1/16/2007 4.88 4.76
2/15/2007 4.85 4.72
3/16/2007 4.57 4.56
4/16/2007 4.67 4.69
5/16/2007 4.77 4.75
6/16/2007 4.98 5.10
7/16/2007 4.82 5.00
8/16/2007 4.31 4.67
9/16/2007 4.01 4.52
10/16/2007 3.97 4.53
11/16/2007 3.34 4.15
12/16/2007 3.12 4.10
1/16/2008 2.48 3.74
2/15/2008 1.97 3.74
3/16/2008 1.62 3.51
4/16/2008 2.05 3.68
5/16/2008 2.45 3.88
6/16/2008 2.77 4.10
7/16/2008 2.57 4.01
8/16/2008 2.42 3.89
9/16/2008 2.08 3.69
10/16/2008 1.61 3.81
11/16/2008 1.21 3.53
12/16/2008 0.82 2.42
1/16/2009 0.81 2.52
2/15/2009 0.98 2.87
3/16/2009 0.93 2.82
4/16/2009 0.93 2.93
5/16/2009 0.93 3.29
6/16/2009 1.18 3.72
7/16/2009 1.02 3.56
8/16/2009 1.12 3.59
9/16/2009 0.96 3.40
10/16/2009 0.95 3.39
11/16/2009 0.80 3.40
12/16/2009 0.87 3.59
1/16/2010 0.93 3.73
2/15/2010 0.86 3.69
3/16/2010 0.96 3.73
4/16/2010 1.06 3.85
5/16/2010 0.83 3.42
6/16/2010 0.72 3.20
7/16/2010 0.62 3.01
8/16/2010 0.52 2.70
9/16/2010 0.48 2.65
10/16/2010 0.38 2.54
11/16/2010 0.45 2.76
12/16/2010 0.62 3.29
1/16/2011 0.61 3.39
2/15/2011 0.77 3.58
3/16/2011 0.70 3.41
4/16/2011 0.73 3.46
5/16/2011 0.56 3.17
6/16/2011 0.41 3.00
7/16/2011 0.41 3.00
8/16/2011 0.23 2.30
9/16/2011 0.21 1.98
10/16/2011 0.28 2.15
11/16/2011 0.25 2.01
12/16/2011 0.26 1.98
1/16/2012 0.24 1.97
2/15/2012 0.28 1.97
3/16/2012 0.34 2.17
4/16/2012 0.29 2.05
5/16/2012 0.29 1.80
6/16/2012 0.29 1.62
7/16/2012 0.25 1.53
8/16/2012 0.27 1.68
9/16/2012 0.26 1.72
10/16/2012 0.28 1.75
11/16/2012 0.27 1.65
12/16/2012 0.26 1.72
1/16/2013 0.27 1.91
2/15/2013 0.27 1.98
3/16/2013 0.26 1.96
4/16/2013 0.23 1.76
5/16/2013 0.25 1.93
6/16/2013 0.33 2.30
7/16/2013 0.34 2.58
8/16/2013 0.36 2.74
9/16/2013 0.40 2.81
10/16/2013 0.34 2.62
11/16/2013 0.30 2.72
12/16/2013 0.34 2.90
1/16/2014 0.39 2.86
2/15/2014 0.33 2.71
3/16/2014 0.40 2.72
4/16/2014 0.42 2.71
5/16/2014 0.39 2.56
6/16/2014 0.45 2.60
7/16/2014 0.51 2.54
8/16/2014 0.47 2.42
9/16/2014 0.57 2.53
10/16/2014 0.45 2.30
11/16/2014 0.53 2.33
12/16/2014 0.64 2.21
1/16/2015 0.55 1.88
2/15/2015 0.62 1.98
3/16/2015 0.64 2.04
4/16/2015 0.54 1.94
5/16/2015 0.61 2.20
6/16/2015 0.69 2.36
7/16/2015 0.67 2.32
8/16/2015 0.70 2.17
9/16/2015 0.71 2.17
10/16/2015 0.64 2.07
11/16/2015 0.88 2.26
12/16/2015 0.98 2.24
1/16/2016 0.90 2.09
2/15/2016 0.73 1.78
3/16/2016 0.88 1.89
4/16/2016 0.77 1.81
5/16/2016 0.82 1.81
6/16/2016 0.73 1.64
7/16/2016 0.67 1.50
8/16/2016 0.74 1.56
9/16/2016 0.77 1.63
10/16/2016 0.84 1.76
11/16/2016 0.98 2.14
12/16/2016 1.20 2.49
1/16/2017 1.21 2.43
2/15/2017 1.20 2.42
3/16/2017 1.31 2.48
4/16/2017 1.24 2.30
5/16/2017 1.30 2.30
6/16/2017 1.34 2.19
7/16/2017 1.37 2.32
8/16/2017 1.34 2.21
9/16/2017 1.38 2.20
10/16/2017 1.55 2.36
11/16/2017 1.70 2.35
12/16/2017 1.84 2.40
1/16/2018 2.03 2.58
2/15/2018 2.18 2.86
3/16/2018 2.28 2.84
4/16/2018 2.38 2.87
5/16/2018 2.51 2.98
6/16/2018 2.53 2.91
7/16/2018 2.61 2.89
8/16/2018 2.64 2.89
9/16/2018 2.77 3.00
10/16/2018 2.86 3.15
11/16/2018 2.86 3.12
12/16/2018 2.68 2.83
1/16/2019 2.54 2.71
2/15/2019 2.50 2.68
3/16/2019 2.41 2.57
4/16/2019 2.34 2.53
5/16/2019 2.21 2.40
6/16/2019 1.81 2.07
7/16/2019 1.84 2.06
8/16/2019 1.57 1.63
9/16/2019 1.65 1.70
10/16/2019 1.55 1.71
11/16/2019 1.61 1.81
12/16/2019 1.61 1.86
1/16/2020 1.52 1.76
2/16/2020 1.33 1.50
3/16/2020 0.45 0.87
4/16/2020 0.22 0.66

Note: The 2- and 10-year Treasury rates are the constant-maturity yields based on the most actively traded securities.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.15, "Selected Interest Rates."

Return to text
1-2. Term Premium on 10-Year Nominal Treasury Securities

Percentage points

Date Term Premium
2/15/1997 1.42
3/16/1997 1.56
4/16/1997 1.66
5/16/1997 1.56
6/16/1997 1.49
7/16/1997 1.32
8/16/1997 1.32
9/16/1997 1.33
10/16/1997 1.23
11/16/1997 1.07
12/16/1997 1.00
1/16/1998 0.89
2/15/1998 0.91
3/16/1998 0.97
4/16/1998 0.97
5/16/1998 0.98
6/16/1998 0.89
7/16/1998 0.86
8/16/1998 0.81
9/16/1998 0.59
10/16/1998 0.61
11/16/1998 0.69
12/16/1998 0.60
1/16/1999 0.70
2/15/1999 0.83
3/16/1999 0.99
4/16/1999 0.98
5/16/1999 1.14
6/16/1999 1.32
7/16/1999 1.28
8/16/1999 1.35
9/16/1999 1.35
10/16/1999 1.44
11/16/1999 1.28
12/16/1999 1.35
1/16/2000 1.51
2/15/2000 1.39
3/16/2000 1.22
4/16/2000 1.04
5/16/2000 1.24
6/16/2000 1.06
7/16/2000 0.97
8/16/2000 0.83
9/16/2000 0.83
10/16/2000 0.75
11/16/2000 0.71
12/16/2000 0.53
1/16/2001 0.68
2/15/2001 0.78
3/16/2001 0.78
4/16/2001 1.05
5/16/2001 1.29
6/16/2001 1.29
7/16/2001 1.27
8/16/2001 1.17
9/16/2001 1.19
10/16/2001 1.28
11/16/2001 1.39
12/16/2001 1.77
1/16/2002 1.76
2/15/2002 1.66
3/16/2002 1.84
4/16/2002 1.81
5/16/2002 1.75
6/16/2002 1.60
7/16/2002 1.46
8/16/2002 1.22
9/16/2002 0.96
10/16/2002 0.98
11/16/2002 1.13
12/16/2002 1.17
1/16/2003 1.15
2/15/2003 1.08
3/16/2003 0.99
4/16/2003 1.09
5/16/2003 0.83
6/16/2003 0.67
7/16/2003 1.07
8/16/2003 1.46
9/16/2003 1.36
10/16/2003 1.31
11/16/2003 1.34
12/16/2003 1.31
1/16/2004 1.24
2/15/2004 1.19
3/16/2004 1.01
4/16/2004 1.32
5/16/2004 1.56
6/16/2004 1.49
7/16/2004 1.30
8/16/2004 1.14
9/16/2004 0.97
10/16/2004 0.90
11/16/2004 0.87
12/16/2004 0.84
1/16/2005 0.79
2/15/2005 0.68
3/16/2005 0.85
4/16/2005 0.73
5/16/2005 0.58
6/16/2005 0.45
7/16/2005 0.48
8/16/2005 0.49
9/16/2005 0.42
10/16/2005 0.52
11/16/2005 0.55
12/16/2005 0.48
1/16/2006 0.37
2/15/2006 0.42
3/16/2006 0.48
4/16/2006 0.61
5/16/2006 0.66
6/16/2006 0.62
7/16/2006 0.57
8/16/2006 0.45
9/16/2006 0.39
10/16/2006 0.37
11/16/2006 0.28
12/16/2006 0.27
1/16/2007 0.37
2/15/2007 0.36
3/16/2007 0.26
4/16/2007 0.36
5/16/2007 0.40
6/16/2007 0.66
7/16/2007 0.59
8/16/2007 0.53
9/16/2007 0.51
10/16/2007 0.54
11/16/2007 0.48
12/16/2007 0.53
1/16/2008 0.39
2/15/2008 0.63
3/16/2008 0.67
4/16/2008 0.77
5/16/2008 0.83
6/16/2008 0.93
7/16/2008 0.88
8/16/2008 0.80
9/16/2008 0.77
10/16/2008 1.09
11/16/2008 1.14
12/16/2008 0.52
1/16/2009 0.52
2/15/2009 0.74
3/16/2009 0.68
4/16/2009 0.66
5/16/2009 0.93
6/16/2009 1.28
7/16/2009 1.15
8/16/2009 1.18
9/16/2009 1.06
10/16/2009 1.02
11/16/2009 1.03
12/16/2009 1.09
1/16/2010 1.22
2/15/2010 1.16
3/16/2010 1.15
4/16/2010 1.23
5/16/2010 0.97
6/16/2010 0.84
7/16/2010 0.66
8/16/2010 0.44
9/16/2010 0.39
10/16/2010 0.27
11/16/2010 0.40
12/16/2010 0.79
1/16/2011 0.87
2/15/2011 1.02
3/16/2011 0.92
4/16/2011 0.97
5/16/2011 0.77
6/16/2011 0.60
7/16/2011 0.63
8/16/2011 0.17
9/16/2011 -0.04
10/16/2011 0.06
11/16/2011 -0.03
12/16/2011 -0.06
1/16/2012 -0.09
2/15/2012 -0.12
3/16/2012 0.02
4/16/2012 -0.05
5/16/2012 -0.21
6/16/2012 -0.33
7/16/2012 -0.39
8/16/2012 -0.30
9/16/2012 -0.30
10/16/2012 -0.29
11/16/2012 -0.33
12/16/2012 -0.29
1/16/2013 -0.18
2/15/2013 -0.11
3/16/2013 -0.14
4/16/2013 -0.25
5/16/2013 -0.16
6/16/2013 0.12
7/16/2013 0.34
8/16/2013 0.46
9/16/2013 0.53
10/16/2013 0.37
11/16/2013 0.41
12/16/2013 0.55
1/16/2014 0.58
2/15/2014 0.46
3/16/2014 0.48
4/16/2014 0.50
5/16/2014 0.41
6/16/2014 0.43
7/16/2014 0.41
8/16/2014 0.35
9/16/2014 0.41
10/16/2014 0.28
11/16/2014 0.30
12/16/2014 0.22
1/16/2015 0.03
2/15/2015 0.06
3/16/2015 0.11
4/16/2015 0.01
5/16/2015 0.19
6/16/2015 0.29
7/16/2015 0.27
8/16/2015 0.14
9/16/2015 0.14
10/16/2015 0.07
11/16/2015 0.18
12/16/2015 0.12
1/16/2016 0.03
2/15/2016 -0.19
3/16/2016 -0.12
4/16/2016 -0.18
5/16/2016 -0.17
6/16/2016 -0.27
7/16/2016 -0.38
8/16/2016 -0.35
9/16/2016 -0.31
10/16/2016 -0.24
11/16/2016 -0.01
12/16/2016 0.24
1/16/2017 0.19
2/15/2017 0.19
3/16/2017 0.16
4/16/2017 0.01
5/16/2017 -0.01
6/16/2017 -0.13
7/16/2017 -0.06
8/16/2017 -0.12
9/16/2017 -0.15
10/16/2017 -0.06
11/16/2017 -0.09
12/16/2017 -0.08
1/16/2018 -0.01
2/15/2018 0.14
3/16/2018 0.10
4/16/2018 0.08
5/16/2018 0.13
6/16/2018 0.08
7/16/2018 0.04
8/16/2018 0.02
9/16/2018 0.05
10/16/2018 0.11
11/16/2018 0.07
12/16/2018 -0.12
1/16/2019 -0.21
2/15/2019 -0.24
3/16/2019 -0.29
4/16/2019 -0.32
5/16/2019 -0.38
6/16/2019 -0.54
7/16/2019 -0.53
8/16/2019 -0.73
9/16/2019 -0.71
10/16/2019 -0.63
11/16/2019 -0.52
12/16/2019 -0.49
1/16/2020 -0.53
2/15/2020 -0.70
3/16/2020 -0.75
4/16/2020 -0.83

Note: Term premiums are estimated from a three-factor term structure model using Treasury yields and Blue Chip interest rate forecasts.

Source: Department of the Treasury; Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates.

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1-3. Option-Implied Volatility on the 10-Year Swap Rate

Figure 1-3: This is a line chart titled "Option-Implied Volatility on the 10-Year Swap Rate." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2003 to 2020. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 200 basis points. The data are monthly. The variable plotted, the option-implied volatility on the 10-year swap rate, is designated by a black line. It begins in 2003 at around 80 basis points. It then steadily declines from 2004 to 2007 where it reaches around 50 basis points. It gradually rises from 2007 to 2009 peak of around 150 basis points in 2009. It then drops steeply to around 50 basis points in 2014, and then stays at that level until 2020. In 2020, there is a large jump to 100 basis points then a sharp decline to right above 50 basis points.

Note: Implied volatility on the 10-year Treasury yield, 1 month ahead, derived from future prices on government bond futures.

Source: CBOE Volatility Index (TYVIX), accessed via Bloomberg.

Return to text
1-4. Treasury Market Depth

Figure 1-4: This is a line chart titled “Treasury Market Depth”. The x-axis measures from January 2019 to April 2020. The left y-axis measures the blue line labeled “30-year” and ranges from 0 to 35. The right y-axis measures the black line labeled “Five-year” and the red line labeled “Ten-year” ranging from 0 to 350. Both axes are measured in millions of dollars. The red line begins in January 2019 around 100 and in the same month sees an increase to 200. In March, it reaches around 250 to drop back to 200 in the same month. It drops to around 75 by August. It hovers around 100 until March 2020. In March of 2020 it decreases to around 25 and increases to around 75 in April. The black line begins around 150. It increases to roughly 250 in February 2019. It then declines to 150 by August 2019. It then drops to around 100 and stays roughly around that value until the start of 2020. By February it reaches almost 175 and then drops to around 25. It then increases to 100 to end in April. The blue line around 15 in January 2019. From February to July it stays between roughly 23 and 28. It then drops to around 10 and hovers between 10 and 15 until March 2020. It then drops to 5 and stays there through April 2020.

Note: Market depth is defined as the average top three bid and ask quote sizes for on-the-run Treasury securities.

Source: Repo interdealer Broker community.

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1-5. Corporate Bond Yields

Figure 1-5: This is a line chart titled "Corporate Bond Yields." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 1997 to 2020. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 20 percent. The data are monthly and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "10-year high-yield" and is designated by a black line. It begins at around 9 percent in 1997 and rises gradually to around 13 percent in 1999 and 2000. It falls to around 7 percent in 2003, and then peaks sharply in 2008 and 2009 at around 17 percent before falling sharply to around 8 percent in late 2009. It remains between 6 and 8 percent from 2010 to April 2019, with a recent increase to 7.39 in December 2018 followed by a decline to about 6 in April. In 2019 it rises to right above 8 percent. Until 2020, it decreases to 4 then jumps to 8 percent in March. Around April 2020, it drops to 7. The second line is labeled "10-year triple-B" and is designated by a blue line. It begins at around 8 percent in 1997, and fluctuates between 7 and 9 percent until it drops to around 5 percent in 2002 and 2003. It gradually rises until it sharply increases to around 10 percent in 2008 and 2009, and then sharply declines to around 5 percent in late 2009. It remains between 3 and 5 percent from 2010 to October 2019. It has a spike in early 2020.

Note: The 10-year triple-B reflects the effective yield of the ICE BofAML 7-to-10-year triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C4A4), and the 10-year high-yield reflects the effective yield of the ICE BofAML 7-to-10-year U.S. Cash Pay High Yield Index (J4A0).

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission.

Return to text
1-6. Corporate Bond Spreads to Similar-Maturity Treasury Securities

Figure 1-6: This is a line chart titled "Corporate Bond Spreads to Similar Maturity Treasury Securities." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2020. The data are monthly, and there are two variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled "10-year high-yield" and is designated by a black line. This line corresponds to the values on the right y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 16 percentage points. It begins at around 3 percentage points in 1997, rises to around 8 percentage points from 2000 to 2002, then drops sharply to around 3 percentage points in 2003. It remains around 3 percentage points until 2008 when it rapidly rises to its peak in late 2008 of around 15 percentage points. It then falls steeply in 2009 to around 4 percentage points, goes briefly up to around 6 percentage points in 2011 and 2012, falls gradually to around 3 percentage points from 2012 to 2014, rises gradually from 2014 to 2016 to 6 percentage points, then falls to around 4 percentage points again from 2016 to October 2018. It then increases in November and December 2018 but decreases to around 3.5 percentage points in November 2019. In early 2020 it jumps to almost 7 percent. The second line is labeled "10-year triple B" and is designated by a blue line. This line corresponds to the values on the left y-axis, which ranges from 0 to 10 percentage points. It begins at just under 1 percentage point in 1997, rises to around 3 percentage points from 2000 to 2002, then drops sharply to around 1 percentage point in 2003. It remains around 1 percentage point until 2008 when it rapidly rises to its peak in late 2008 of around 7.5 percentage points. It then falls steeply in 2009 to around 1.5 percentage points and goes briefly up to around 2.5 percentage points in 2011 and 2012. It then falls gradually to around 1.5 percentage points from 2012 to 2014, rises gradually to around 2 percentage points in 2016, then declines to around 1.5 percentage points again from 2016 to October 2018. It then increases in November and December 2018 but decreases to around 1.5 percentage points in November 2019. In early 2020 it jumps to almost 8 percent.

Note: The 10-year triple-B reflects the effective yield of the ICE BofAML 7-to-10-year triple-B U.S. Corporate Index (C4A4), and the 10-year high-yield reflects the effective yield of the ICE BofAML 7-to-10-year U.S. Cash Pay High Yield Index (J4A0). Treasury yields from smoothed yield curve estimated from off-the-run securities.

Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission; Department of the Treasury.

Return to text
1-7. Corporate Bond Premium over Expected Losses

Percentage points

Date corporate bond premium
1/16/1997 -0.33
2/15/1997 -0.48
3/16/1997 -0.48
4/16/1997 -0.42
5/16/1997 -0.45
6/16/1997 -0.53
7/16/1997 -0.51
8/16/1997 -0.50
9/16/1997 -0.56
10/16/1997 -0.39
11/16/1997 -0.33
12/16/1997 -0.39
1/16/1998 -0.33
2/15/1998 -0.32
3/16/1998 -0.37
4/16/1998 -0.45
5/16/1998 -0.40
6/16/1998 -0.37
7/16/1998 -0.31
8/16/1998 0.09
9/16/1998 0.07
10/16/1998 0.19
11/16/1998 0.18
12/16/1998 0.05
1/16/1999 0.05
2/15/1999 -0.19
3/16/1999 -0.15
4/16/1999 -0.20
5/16/1999 -0.19
6/16/1999 -0.13
7/16/1999 -0.08
8/16/1999 -0.03
9/16/1999 0.08
10/16/1999 0.09
11/16/1999 0.06
12/16/1999 -0.17
1/16/2000 0.03
2/15/2000 0.11
3/16/2000 0.35
4/16/2000 0.51
5/16/2000 0.71
6/16/2000 0.76
7/16/2000 0.84
8/16/2000 0.99
9/16/2000 1.09
10/16/2000 1.47
11/16/2000 1.56
12/16/2000 1.57
1/16/2001 1.14
2/15/2001 1.17
3/16/2001 1.11
4/16/2001 0.94
5/16/2001 0.74
6/16/2001 0.99
7/16/2001 0.74
8/16/2001 0.74
9/16/2001 1.21
10/16/2001 1.03
11/16/2001 -0.20
12/16/2001 0.39
1/16/2002 0.56
2/15/2002 0.78
3/16/2002 0.26
4/16/2002 0.38
5/16/2002 0.51
6/16/2002 1.01
7/16/2002 1.61
8/16/2002 1.50
9/16/2002 1.70
10/16/2002 1.49
11/16/2002 1.08
12/16/2002 0.95
1/16/2003 0.94
2/15/2003 0.72
3/16/2003 0.20
4/16/2003 0.12
5/16/2003 -0.49
6/16/2003 -0.36
7/16/2003 -1.11
8/16/2003 -0.19
9/16/2003 -0.57
10/16/2003 -0.53
11/16/2003 -0.57
12/16/2003 -0.53
1/16/2004 -0.76
2/15/2004 -0.36
3/16/2004 -0.56
4/16/2004 -0.81
5/16/2004 -0.40
6/16/2004 -0.40
7/16/2004 -0.34
8/16/2004 -0.46
9/16/2004 -0.58
10/16/2004 -0.53
11/16/2004 -0.67
12/16/2004 -0.72
1/16/2005 -0.67
2/15/2005 -0.92
3/16/2005 -0.60
4/16/2005 -0.31
5/16/2005 -0.25
6/16/2005 -0.45
7/16/2005 -0.61
8/16/2005 -0.61
9/16/2005 -0.48
10/16/2005 -0.30
11/16/2005 -0.22
12/16/2005 -0.16
1/16/2006 -0.32
2/15/2006 -0.25
3/16/2006 -0.39
4/16/2006 -0.42
5/16/2006 -0.35
6/16/2006 -0.45
7/16/2006 -0.36
8/16/2006 -0.38
9/16/2006 -0.47
10/16/2006 -0.50
11/16/2006 -0.49
12/16/2006 -0.64
1/16/2007 -0.72
2/15/2007 -0.71
3/16/2007 -0.49
4/16/2007 -0.49
5/16/2007 -0.76
6/16/2007 -0.55
7/16/2007 -0.10
8/16/2007 0.03
9/16/2007 -0.09
10/16/2007 -0.18
11/16/2007 0.21
12/16/2007 0.38
1/16/2008 0.62
2/15/2008 0.85
3/16/2008 1.12
4/16/2008 0.58
5/16/2008 0.65
6/16/2008 0.88
7/16/2008 1.24
8/16/2008 1.42
9/16/2008 1.98
10/16/2008 3.47
11/16/2008 2.91
12/16/2008 3.04
1/16/2009 2.67
2/15/2009 3.13
3/16/2009 2.70
4/16/2009 2.20
5/16/2009 1.31
6/16/2009 0.90
7/16/2009 0.30
8/16/2009 0.02
9/16/2009 0.02
10/16/2009 -0.18
11/16/2009 -0.04
12/16/2009 -0.57
1/16/2010 -0.24
2/15/2010 -0.04
3/16/2010 -0.22
4/16/2010 -0.36
5/16/2010 -0.25
6/16/2010 -0.06
7/16/2010 0.10
8/16/2010 -0.43
9/16/2010 -0.10
10/16/2010 -0.06
11/16/2010 -0.21
12/16/2010 -0.51
1/16/2011 -0.04
2/15/2011 -0.33
3/16/2011 -0.36
4/16/2011 -0.31
5/16/2011 -0.17
6/16/2011 -0.06
7/16/2011 -0.12
8/16/2011 -0.22
9/16/2011 0.33
10/16/2011 -0.22
11/16/2011 0.43
12/16/2011 0.20
1/16/2012 0.11
2/15/2012 -0.01
3/16/2012 -0.45
4/16/2012 -0.25
5/16/2012 -0.19
6/16/2012 0.09
7/16/2012 -0.08
8/16/2012 -0.30
9/16/2012 -0.26
10/16/2012 -0.29
11/16/2012 -0.14
12/16/2012 -0.25
1/16/2013 -0.18
2/15/2013 -0.12
3/16/2013 -0.19
4/16/2013 -0.22
5/16/2013 -0.63
6/16/2013 -0.51
7/16/2013 -0.09
8/16/2013 -0.21
9/16/2013 -0.24
10/16/2013 -0.11
11/16/2013 -0.06
12/16/2013 -0.22
1/16/2014 -0.41
2/15/2014 -0.29
3/16/2014 -0.36
4/16/2014 -0.45
5/16/2014 -0.47
6/16/2014 -0.40
7/16/2014 -0.42
8/16/2014 -0.43
9/16/2014 -0.33
10/16/2014 -0.33
11/16/2014 -0.05
12/16/2014 -0.07
1/16/2015 -0.24
2/15/2015 -0.49
3/16/2015 -0.30
4/16/2015 -0.13
5/16/2015 -0.08
6/16/2015 0.05
7/16/2015 0.11
8/16/2015 0.32
9/16/2015 0.44
10/16/2015 0.34
11/16/2015 0.42
12/16/2015 0.59
1/16/2016 0.81
2/15/2016 0.84
3/16/2016 0.49
4/16/2016 0.15
5/16/2016 0.15
6/16/2016 -0.06
7/16/2016 -0.12
8/16/2016 -0.10
9/16/2016 -0.17
10/16/2016 -0.15
11/16/2016 -0.89
12/16/2016 -0.30
1/16/2017 -0.26
2/15/2017 -0.26
3/16/2017 -0.25
4/16/2017 -0.19
5/16/2017 -0.25
6/16/2017 -0.21
7/16/2017 -0.23
8/16/2017 -0.16
9/16/2017 -0.36
10/16/2017 -0.30
11/16/2017 -0.22
12/16/2017 -0.29
1/16/2018 -0.50
2/15/2018 -0.33
3/16/2018 -0.19
4/16/2018 -0.39
5/16/2018 -0.30
6/16/2018 -0.07
7/16/2018 -0.23
8/16/2018 -0.19
9/16/2018 -0.28
10/16/2018 -0.07
11/16/2018 0.07
12/16/2018 0.27
1/16/2019 0.12
2/15/2019 0.01
3/16/2019 -0.22
4/16/2019 -0.07
5/16/2019 -0.11
6/16/2019 -0.07
7/16/2019 -0.12
8/16/2019 -0.29
9/16/2019 -0.36
10/16/2019 -0.35
11/16/2019 -0.30
12/16/2019 -0.38
1/16/2020 -0.39
2/15/2020 -0.32
3/16/2020 1.06
4/16/2020 0.57

Note: The data are expressed in percentage points.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Lehman Brothers Fixed Income Database (Warga); Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., ICE Data Services; Center for Research in Security Prices, CRSP/Compustat Merged Database, Wharton Research Data Services; Bank of America Merrill Lynch Bond Indices; Moody's; S&P Global Market Intelligence, Compustat.

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1-8. Spreads on Newly Issued Institutional Leveraged Loans

percentage points

Date B+/B BB/BB-
1/16/1998 2.64 2.67
2/15/1998 2.54 2.84
3/16/1998 2.65 2.89
4/16/1998 2.44 2.74
5/16/1998 2.32 2.85
6/16/1998 2.45 2.91
7/16/1998 2.50 2.81
8/16/1998 2.42 2.79
9/16/1998 2.89 2.92
10/16/1998 3.10 3.32
11/16/1998 3.37 3.66
12/16/1998 3.47 3.77
1/16/1999 3.05 3.35
2/15/1999 3.05 3.37
3/16/1999 2.67 3.45
4/16/1999 2.71 3.42
5/16/1999 2.78 3.29
6/16/1999 2.79 3.36
7/16/1999 2.77 3.34
8/16/1999 3.07 3.53
9/16/1999 3.20 3.65
10/16/1999 3.43 3.69
11/16/1999 3.25 3.73
12/16/1999 3.00 3.54
1/16/2000 2.92 3.45
2/15/2000 2.76 3.21
3/16/2000 3.02 3.52
4/16/2000 3.08 3.65
5/16/2000 2.92 3.50
6/16/2000 2.96 3.64
7/16/2000 3.27 3.87
8/16/2000 3.61 3.89
9/16/2000 3.61 3.90
10/16/2000 3.53 n.a.
11/16/2000 3.12 3.94
12/16/2000 3.35 3.63
1/16/2001 3.34 3.59
2/15/2001 3.31 3.88
3/16/2001 3.14 3.70
4/16/2001 3.31 3.83
5/16/2001 2.94 3.60
6/16/2001 3.16 3.63
7/16/2001 3.29 3.92
8/16/2001 3.33 4.00
9/16/2001 3.45 n.a.
10/16/2001 4.25 n.a.
11/16/2001 3.44 n.a.
12/16/2001 3.10 n.a.
1/16/2002 3.33 4.00
2/15/2002 2.83 4.00
3/16/2002 3.01 4.25
4/16/2002 3.00 n.a.
5/16/2002 2.61 3.88
6/16/2002 2.48 3.25
7/16/2002 2.82 3.70
8/16/2002 3.17 4.17
9/16/2002 3.25 3.81
10/16/2002 3.75 n.a.
11/16/2002 3.93 4.08
12/16/2002 3.71 4.00
1/16/2003 3.07 3.92
2/15/2003 3.25 4.15
3/16/2003 3.83 4.25
4/16/2003 3.18 4.25
5/16/2003 3.12 4.05
6/16/2003 2.79 3.20
7/16/2003 2.69 3.45
8/16/2003 2.75 3.57
9/16/2003 2.95 3.50
10/16/2003 2.61 3.32
11/16/2003 2.38 2.90
12/16/2003 2.48 2.91
1/16/2004 2.16 3.07
2/15/2004 2.36 2.94
3/16/2004 2.25 2.79
4/16/2004 2.38 2.98
5/16/2004 2.29 3.27
6/16/2004 2.15 2.93
7/16/2004 2.04 2.74
8/16/2004 2.23 3.00
9/16/2004 2.28 2.72
10/16/2004 2.25 2.71
11/16/2004 2.10 2.66
12/16/2004 1.96 2.55
1/16/2005 2.02 2.65
2/15/2005 2.00 2.55
3/16/2005 1.81 2.35
4/16/2005 1.69 2.63
5/16/2005 2.04 2.86
6/16/2005 1.89 2.68
7/16/2005 1.81 2.43
8/16/2005 1.78 2.50
9/16/2005 1.77 2.54
10/16/2005 1.75 2.69
11/16/2005 1.69 2.66
12/16/2005 1.85 2.63
1/16/2006 1.88 2.62
2/15/2006 1.69 2.53
3/16/2006 1.64 2.54
4/16/2006 1.61 2.36
5/16/2006 1.75 2.45
6/16/2006 1.93 2.77
7/16/2006 2.13 2.85
8/16/2006 1.94 3.01
9/16/2006 1.92 2.64
10/16/2006 2.03 2.74
11/16/2006 2.00 2.83
12/16/2006 1.88 2.71
1/16/2007 1.65 2.34
2/15/2007 1.57 2.14
3/16/2007 1.72 2.19
4/16/2007 1.73 2.37
5/16/2007 1.70 2.33
6/16/2007 1.78 2.44
7/16/2007 2.40 2.93
8/16/2007 n.a. 3.39
9/16/2007 n.a. 3.17
10/16/2007 2.25 3.26
11/16/2007 2.42 3.29
12/16/2007 2.50 3.50
1/16/2008 n.a. 3.64
2/15/2008 n.a. 4.04
3/16/2008 n.a. 4.06
4/16/2008 n.a. 3.92
5/16/2008 2.17 3.60
6/16/2008 2.42 3.53
7/16/2008 3.06 3.89
8/16/2008 3.08 3.88
9/16/2008 3.74 4.42
10/16/2008 n.a. n.a.
11/16/2008 n.a. n.a.
12/16/2008 n.a. n.a.
1/16/2009 n.a. n.a.
2/15/2009 n.a. n.a.
3/16/2009 n.a. n.a.
4/16/2009 n.a. n.a.
5/16/2009 n.a. n.a.
6/16/2009 n.a. n.a.
7/16/2009 n.a. n.a.
8/16/2009 n.a. n.a.
9/16/2009 n.a. n.a.
10/16/2009 n.a. 4.66
11/16/2009 3.65 4.13
12/16/2009 3.25 4.31
1/16/2010 n.a. 3.96
2/15/2010 n.a. 3.97
3/16/2010 3.25 4.00
4/16/2010 3.28 4.06
5/16/2010 3.39 4.28
6/16/2010 4.17 5.18
7/16/2010 4.13 5.48
8/16/2010 4.13 5.00
9/16/2010 4.11 4.75
10/16/2010 3.71 4.79
11/16/2010 3.75 4.62
12/16/2010 3.65 4.72
1/16/2011 3.36 4.30
2/15/2011 3.20 3.81
3/16/2011 3.05 4.30
4/16/2011 2.94 4.21
5/16/2011 3.08 4.08
6/16/2011 3.26 4.55
7/16/2011 3.50 5.14
8/16/2011 3.42 5.48
9/16/2011 4.25 5.92
10/16/2011 4.08 6.25
11/16/2011 3.35 5.16
12/16/2011 3.13 5.18
1/16/2012 3.21 5.38
2/15/2012 3.14 4.58
3/16/2012 3.30 4.44
4/16/2012 3.50 4.72
5/16/2012 3.85 5.13
6/16/2012 4.18 5.64
7/16/2012 3.82 5.29
8/16/2012 3.29 4.51
9/16/2012 3.16 4.29
10/16/2012 3.50 4.34
11/16/2012 3.36 4.71
12/16/2012 3.00 4.55
1/16/2013 2.73 3.66
2/15/2013 2.82 3.74
3/16/2013 2.86 4.00
4/16/2013 2.60 3.77
5/16/2013 2.56 3.69
6/16/2013 3.04 4.00
7/16/2013 3.21 3.96
8/16/2013 2.79 3.90
9/16/2013 2.86 3.90
10/16/2013 2.75 3.96
11/16/2013 2.80 3.67
12/16/2013 2.67 3.63
1/16/2014 2.48 3.54
2/15/2014 2.62 3.76
3/16/2014 2.75 3.59
4/16/2014 3.13 3.86
5/16/2014 3.44 4.12
6/16/2014 3.20 4.07
7/16/2014 2.92 3.78
8/16/2014 3.17 4.13
9/16/2014 3.42 4.18
10/16/2014 3.64 4.53
11/16/2014 3.50 4.64
12/16/2014 3.75 4.65
1/16/2015 n.a. 4.78
2/15/2015 3.42 4.76
3/16/2015 3.13 4.08
4/16/2015 3.28 4.00
5/16/2015 3.11 3.83
6/16/2015 3.06 4.05
7/16/2015 3.21 4.04
8/16/2015 3.10 3.89
9/16/2015 n.a. 4.42
10/16/2015 3.25 4.63
11/16/2015 3.39 4.51
12/16/2015 3.95 4.52
1/16/2016 3.79 4.58
2/15/2016 3.88 5.04
3/16/2016 3.63 5.07
4/16/2016 3.69 4.66
5/16/2016 3.06 4.28
6/16/2016 3.05 4.21
7/16/2016 3.16 4.47
8/16/2016 3.15 4.51
9/16/2016 2.85 4.10
10/16/2016 2.77 4.00
11/16/2016 2.89 4.03
12/16/2016 2.68 3.88
1/16/2017 2.48 3.67
2/15/2017 2.56 3.98
3/16/2017 2.43 3.82
4/16/2017 2.50 3.93
5/16/2017 2.39 3.52
6/16/2017 2.40 3.70
7/16/2017 2.49 4.04
8/16/2017 2.75 3.85
9/16/2017 2.30 3.68
10/16/2017 2.45 4.04
11/16/2017 2.44 3.72
12/16/2017 2.33 3.75
1/16/2018 2.29 3.38
2/15/2018 2.26 3.39
3/16/2018 2.10 3.36
4/16/2018 2.17 3.44
5/16/2018 2.04 3.47
6/16/2018 2.32 3.79
7/16/2018 2.58 3.83
8/16/2018 2.36 3.69
9/16/2018 2.74 3.86
10/16/2018 2.27 3.53
11/16/2018 2.31 3.71
12/16/2018 n.a. 5.08
1/16/2019 3.53 4.20
2/15/2019 3.10 4.39
3/16/2019 2.58 4.03
4/16/2019 2.76 4.05
5/16/2019 2.69 3.91
6/16/2019 3.02 3.97
7/16/2019 2.73 3.95
8/16/2019 2.35 4.09
9/16/2019 2.49 4.32
10/16/2019 2.21 4.25
11/16/2019 1.88 4.20
12/16/2019 2.12 3.63
1/16/2020 2.11 3.34
2/15/2020 2.31 3.76
3/16/2020 n.a. 4.40

Note: Breaks in the series represent periods with no issuance. Spreads are calculated against three-month LIBOR (London interbank offered rate). The spreads do not include up-front fees.

Source: S&P Global, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

Return to text
1-9. Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio of S&P 500 Firms

ratio

Date Forward price-to-earnings ratio
1/16/1989 10.06
2/15/1989 10.14
3/16/1989 10.12
4/16/1989 10.43
5/16/1989 10.73
6/16/1989 10.85
7/16/1989 11.24
8/16/1989 11.56
9/16/1989 11.51
10/16/1989 11.47
11/16/1989 11.52
12/16/1989 11.88
1/16/1990 11.53
2/15/1990 11.32
3/16/1990 11.49
4/16/1990 11.65
5/16/1990 12.07
6/16/1990 12.38
7/16/1990 12.39
8/16/1990 11.50
9/16/1990 10.79
10/16/1990 10.30
11/16/1990 11.18
12/16/1990 11.66
1/16/1991 11.25
2/15/1991 13.43
3/16/1991 13.77
4/16/1991 14.45
5/16/1991 13.64
6/16/1991 13.90
7/16/1991 14.15
8/16/1991 14.40
9/16/1991 14.21
10/16/1991 14.31
11/16/1991 14.46
12/16/1991 14.01
1/16/1992 15.37
2/15/1992 15.00
3/16/1992 14.85
4/16/1992 14.81
5/16/1992 14.70
6/16/1992 14.01
7/16/1992 14.43
8/16/1992 14.45
9/16/1992 14.41
10/16/1992 14.00
11/16/1992 14.52
12/16/1992 14.70
1/16/1993 14.62
2/15/1993 14.67
3/16/1993 15.01
4/16/1993 15.04
5/16/1993 14.71
6/16/1993 14.64
7/16/1993 14.63
8/16/1993 14.76
9/16/1993 14.81
10/16/1993 14.64
11/16/1993 14.67
12/16/1993 14.48
1/16/1994 14.74
2/15/1994 14.60
3/16/1994 14.33
4/16/1994 13.46
5/16/1994 13.42
6/16/1994 13.46
7/16/1994 13.00
8/16/1994 13.20
9/16/1994 13.10
10/16/1994 12.92
11/16/1994 12.56
12/16/1994 12.09
1/16/1995 12.32
2/15/1995 12.48
3/16/1995 12.50
4/16/1995 12.66
5/16/1995 12.90
6/16/1995 13.05
7/16/1995 13.30
8/16/1995 13.36
9/16/1995 13.68
10/16/1995 13.77
11/16/1995 13.80
12/16/1995 14.32
1/16/1996 14.01
2/15/1996 15.23
3/16/1996 14.81
4/16/1996 14.79
5/16/1996 15.20
6/16/1996 14.71
7/16/1996 14.40
8/16/1996 14.92
9/16/1996 15.25
10/16/1996 15.61
11/16/1996 16.07
12/16/1996 15.85
1/16/1997 16.46
2/15/1997 17.36
3/16/1997 16.65
4/16/1997 16.02
5/16/1997 17.38
6/16/1997 18.39
7/16/1997 19.23
8/16/1997 18.68
9/16/1997 18.92
10/16/1997 19.20
11/16/1997 18.60
12/16/1997 18.87
1/16/1998 18.66
2/15/1998 20.36
3/16/1998 21.42
4/16/1998 21.90
5/16/1998 21.69
6/16/1998 21.42
7/16/1998 22.77
8/16/1998 21.16
9/16/1998 20.01
10/16/1998 19.28
11/16/1998 22.02
12/16/1998 22.30
1/16/1999 23.71
2/15/1999 23.53
3/16/1999 24.73
4/16/1999 24.96
5/16/1999 24.74
6/16/1999 24.30
7/16/1999 25.44
8/16/1999 23.91
9/16/1999 23.47
10/16/1999 22.55
11/16/1999 24.50
12/16/1999 24.42
1/16/2000 24.85
2/15/2000 24.03
3/16/2000 23.73
4/16/2000 23.91
5/16/2000 23.89
6/16/2000 24.10
7/16/2000 24.09
8/16/2000 23.86
9/16/2000 23.85
10/16/2000 21.44
11/16/2000 22.24
12/16/2000 22.10
1/16/2001 21.98
2/15/2001 22.07
3/16/2001 19.72
4/16/2001 21.41
5/16/2001 22.23
6/16/2001 21.67
7/16/2001 21.61
8/16/2001 21.17
9/16/2001 18.42
10/16/2001 20.37
11/16/2001 21.49
12/16/2001 21.57
1/16/2002 21.00
2/15/2002 20.47
3/16/2002 20.75
4/16/2002 20.17
5/16/2002 19.40
6/16/2002 18.11
7/16/2002 16.15
8/16/2002 16.60
9/16/2002 15.72
10/16/2002 15.77
11/16/2002 16.01
12/16/2002 16.12
1/16/2003 16.48
2/15/2003 15.33
3/16/2003 15.70
4/16/2003 15.67
5/16/2003 16.55
6/16/2003 17.68
7/16/2003 17.27
8/16/2003 16.94
9/16/2003 17.41
10/16/2003 17.50
11/16/2003 17.10
12/16/2003 17.43
1/16/2004 18.10
2/15/2004 18.09
3/16/2004 17.40
4/16/2004 17.10
5/16/2004 15.97
6/16/2004 16.41
7/16/2004 15.92
8/16/2004 15.51
9/16/2004 15.77
10/16/2004 15.49
11/16/2004 16.17
12/16/2004 16.32
1/16/2005 15.95
2/15/2005 16.16
3/16/2005 15.64
4/16/2005 15.30
5/16/2005 15.27
6/16/2005 15.41
7/16/2005 15.41
8/16/2005 15.14
9/16/2005 14.95
10/16/2005 14.33
11/16/2005 14.61
12/16/2005 14.98
1/16/2006 14.90
2/15/2006 14.93
3/16/2006 15.06
4/16/2006 14.99
5/16/2006 14.29
6/16/2006 13.69
7/16/2006 13.90
8/16/2006 14.13
9/16/2006 14.26
10/16/2006 14.65
11/16/2006 14.81
12/16/2006 14.83
1/16/2007 15.01
2/15/2007 15.39
3/16/2007 14.56
4/16/2007 15.31
5/16/2007 15.51
6/16/2007 15.30
7/16/2007 15.41
8/16/2007 13.87
9/16/2007 15.01
10/16/2007 15.01
11/16/2007 14.32
12/16/2007 14.20
1/16/2008 13.49
2/15/2008 13.68
3/16/2008 13.09
4/16/2008 13.80
5/16/2008 14.30
6/16/2008 13.51
7/16/2008 12.60
8/16/2008 13.29
9/16/2008 12.01
10/16/2008 9.93
11/16/2008 9.74
12/16/2008 11.87
1/16/2009 11.48
2/15/2009 12.46
3/16/2009 12.42
4/16/2009 13.51
5/16/2009 14.66
6/16/2009 14.73
7/16/2009 14.80
8/16/2009 15.20
9/16/2009 15.91
10/16/2009 15.85
11/16/2009 15.12
12/16/2009 14.89
1/16/2010 14.80
2/15/2010 13.81
3/16/2010 14.44
4/16/2010 14.83
5/16/2010 12.99
6/16/2010 12.82
7/16/2010 12.49
8/16/2010 12.10
9/16/2010 12.36
10/16/2010 12.84
11/16/2010 12.57
12/16/2010 13.03
1/16/2011 13.21
2/15/2011 13.70
3/16/2011 12.61
4/16/2011 12.97
5/16/2011 12.90
6/16/2011 12.07
7/16/2011 12.64
8/16/2011 11.28
9/16/2011 11.24
10/16/2011 11.50
11/16/2011 11.68
12/16/2011 11.40
1/16/2012 12.33
2/15/2012 12.63
3/16/2012 12.96
4/16/2012 12.66
5/16/2012 12.01
6/16/2012 11.89
7/16/2012 12.59
8/16/2012 12.92
9/16/2012 13.34
10/16/2012 13.21
11/16/2012 12.19
12/16/2012 12.86
1/16/2013 13.12
2/15/2013 13.53
3/16/2013 13.72
4/16/2013 13.59
5/16/2013 14.48
6/16/2013 14.10
7/16/2013 14.51
8/16/2013 14.58
9/16/2013 14.84
10/16/2013 14.71
11/16/2013 15.03
12/16/2013 15.20
1/16/2014 15.42
2/15/2014 15.44
3/16/2014 15.60
4/16/2014 15.49
5/16/2014 15.45
6/16/2014 15.83
7/16/2014 15.97
8/16/2014 15.55
9/16/2014 15.89
10/16/2014 14.76
11/16/2014 16.19
12/16/2014 16.11
1/16/2015 16.23
2/15/2015 17.35
3/16/2015 17.27
4/16/2015 17.29
5/16/2015 17.09
6/16/2015 16.96
7/16/2015 16.98
8/16/2015 16.75
9/16/2015 16.09
10/16/2015 16.14
11/16/2015 16.80
12/16/2015 16.69
1/16/2016 15.29
2/15/2016 15.91
3/16/2016 16.71
4/16/2016 17.09
5/16/2016 16.67
6/16/2016 16.74
7/16/2016 17.39
8/16/2016 17.52
9/16/2016 16.92
10/16/2016 16.89
11/16/2016 16.95
12/16/2016 17.33
1/16/2017 17.27
2/15/2017 17.91
3/16/2017 18.04
4/16/2017 17.54
5/16/2017 17.50
6/16/2017 17.91
7/16/2017 18.23
8/16/2017 18.09
9/16/2017 18.18
10/16/2017 18.44
11/16/2017 18.15
12/16/2017 18.64
1/16/2018 18.72
2/15/2018 17.28
3/16/2018 17.37
4/16/2018 16.92
5/16/2018 16.68
6/16/2018 16.84
7/16/2018 17.03
8/16/2018 16.82
9/16/2018 17.21
10/16/2018 16.49
11/16/2018 15.72
12/16/2018 14.65
1/16/2019 15.45
2/15/2019 16.34
3/16/2019 16.60
4/16/2019 17.08
5/16/2019 16.66
6/16/2019 17.03
7/16/2019 17.45
8/16/2019 16.54
9/16/2019 17.40
10/16/2019 17.31
11/16/2019 17.83
12/16/2019 18.25
1/16/2020 18.73
2/15/2020 19.28
3/16/2020 14.12
4/16/2020 18.91

Note: Aggregate forward price-to-earnings ratio of S&P 500 firms. Based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. Median line is present at ratio 15.2.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations using Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters), Institutional Brokers Estimate System Estimates."

Return to text
1-10. Spread of Forward Earnings-to-Price Ratio of S&P 500 Firms to 10-Year Real Treasury Yield

percentage points

Date Spread of forward price-to-earnings ratio
10/16/1991 3.32
11/16/1991 3.30
12/16/1991 3.81
1/16/1992 2.88
2/15/1992 2.80
3/16/1992 2.74
4/16/1992 3.00
5/16/1992 3.14
6/16/1992 3.59
7/16/1992 3.58
8/16/1992 3.78
9/16/1992 3.93
10/16/1992 3.84
11/16/1992 3.38
12/16/1992 3.39
1/16/1993 3.49
2/15/1993 3.80
3/16/1993 3.87
4/16/1993 4.09
5/16/1993 4.23
6/16/1993 4.41
7/16/1993 4.33
8/16/1993 4.35
9/16/1993 4.65
10/16/1993 4.77
11/16/1993 4.38
12/16/1993 4.45
1/16/1994 4.36
2/15/1994 4.18
3/16/1994 3.80
4/16/1994 3.83
5/16/1994 3.68
6/16/1994 3.74
7/16/1994 3.80
8/16/1994 3.75
9/16/1994 3.59
10/16/1994 3.44
11/16/1994 3.47
12/16/1994 3.89
1/16/1995 3.54
2/15/1995 3.76
3/16/1995 3.99
4/16/1995 4.09
5/16/1995 4.38
6/16/1995 4.72
7/16/1995 4.32
8/16/1995 4.08
9/16/1995 4.18
10/16/1995 4.12
11/16/1995 4.22
12/16/1995 4.16
1/16/1996 4.37
2/15/1996 3.65
3/16/1996 3.34
4/16/1996 3.10
5/16/1996 2.74
6/16/1996 2.81
7/16/1996 3.03
8/16/1996 3.03
9/16/1996 2.65
10/16/1996 2.80
11/16/1996 2.94
12/16/1996 2.95
1/16/1997 2.45
2/15/1997 2.28
3/16/1997 2.22
4/16/1997 2.11
5/16/1997 1.82
6/16/1997 1.70
7/16/1997 1.88
8/16/1997 1.93
9/16/1997 1.94
10/16/1997 1.68
11/16/1997 2.03
12/16/1997 2.05
1/16/1998 2.29
2/15/1998 1.78
3/16/1998 1.46
4/16/1998 1.27
5/16/1998 1.29
6/16/1998 1.50
7/16/1998 1.28
8/16/1998 1.76
9/16/1998 2.48
10/16/1998 2.86
11/16/1998 1.96
12/16/1998 2.04
1/16/1999 1.44
2/15/1999 1.20
3/16/1999 0.76
4/16/1999 1.01
5/16/1999 0.71
6/16/1999 0.43
7/16/1999 0.33
8/16/1999 0.40
9/16/1999 0.46
10/16/1999 0.43
11/16/1999 0.24
12/16/1999 0.03
1/16/2000 -0.30
2/15/2000 -0.04
3/16/2000 0.21
4/16/2000 0.42
5/16/2000 0.02
6/16/2000 0.32
7/16/2000 0.41
8/16/2000 0.63
9/16/2000 0.63
10/16/2000 1.21
11/16/2000 1.10
12/16/2000 1.57
1/16/2001 1.67
2/15/2001 1.68
3/16/2001 2.39
4/16/2001 1.78
5/16/2001 1.40
6/16/2001 1.61
7/16/2001 1.68
8/16/2001 1.98
9/16/2001 2.88
10/16/2001 2.60
11/16/2001 2.26
12/16/2001 1.78
1/16/2002 1.94
2/15/2002 2.15
3/16/2002 1.72
4/16/2002 1.97
5/16/2002 2.26
6/16/2002 2.86
7/16/2002 3.79
8/16/2002 3.99
9/16/2002 4.70
10/16/2002 4.54
11/16/2002 4.37
12/16/2002 4.34
1/16/2003 4.27
2/15/2003 4.88
3/16/2003 4.83
4/16/2003 4.72
5/16/2003 4.80
6/16/2003 4.65
7/16/2003 4.15
8/16/2003 3.76
9/16/2003 3.80
10/16/2003 3.77
11/16/2003 3.90
12/16/2003 3.83
1/16/2004 3.75
2/15/2004 3.81
3/16/2004 4.29
4/16/2004 3.85
5/16/2004 3.88
6/16/2004 3.71
7/16/2004 4.14
8/16/2004 4.51
9/16/2004 4.58
10/16/2004 4.72
11/16/2004 4.36
12/16/2004 4.29
1/16/2005 4.40
2/15/2005 4.39
3/16/2005 4.26
4/16/2005 4.61
5/16/2005 4.82
6/16/2005 4.92
7/16/2005 4.74
8/16/2005 4.77
9/16/2005 4.91
10/16/2005 4.92
11/16/2005 4.69
12/16/2005 4.60
1/16/2006 4.71
2/15/2006 4.54
3/16/2006 4.32
4/16/2006 4.10
5/16/2006 4.31
6/16/2006 4.62
7/16/2006 4.54
8/16/2006 4.64
9/16/2006 4.72
10/16/2006 4.53
11/16/2006 4.59
12/16/2006 4.61
1/16/2007 4.18
2/15/2007 4.05
3/16/2007 4.57
4/16/2007 4.16
5/16/2007 4.03
6/16/2007 3.76
7/16/2007 3.81
8/16/2007 4.81
9/16/2007 4.43
10/16/2007 4.43
11/16/2007 5.08
12/16/2007 5.17
1/16/2008 5.99
2/15/2008 5.87
3/16/2008 6.41
4/16/2008 5.86
5/16/2008 5.40
6/16/2008 5.60
7/16/2008 6.25
8/16/2008 5.96
9/16/2008 6.93
10/16/2008 8.31
11/16/2008 8.73
12/16/2008 7.99
1/16/2009 8.05
2/15/2009 7.04
3/16/2009 7.20
4/16/2009 6.65
5/16/2009 5.70
6/16/2009 5.24
7/16/2009 5.39
8/16/2009 5.20
9/16/2009 5.11
10/16/2009 4.94
11/16/2009 5.24
12/16/2009 5.20
1/16/2010 5.25
2/15/2010 5.78
3/16/2010 5.46
4/16/2010 5.21
5/16/2010 6.54
6/16/2010 6.85
7/16/2010 7.16
8/16/2010 7.77
9/16/2010 7.63
10/16/2010 7.35
11/16/2010 7.33
12/16/2010 6.48
1/16/2011 6.40
2/15/2011 5.96
3/16/2011 6.74
4/16/2011 6.58
5/16/2011 6.91
6/16/2011 7.61
7/16/2011 7.23
8/16/2011 8.90
9/16/2011 9.25
10/16/2011 8.98
11/16/2011 9.01
12/16/2011 9.26
1/16/2012 8.42
2/15/2012 8.23
3/16/2012 7.81
4/16/2012 8.31
5/16/2012 9.01
6/16/2012 9.28
7/16/2012 8.78
8/16/2012 8.40
9/16/2012 8.13
10/16/2012 8.14
11/16/2012 8.87
12/16/2012 8.38
1/16/2013 8.02
2/15/2013 7.71
3/16/2013 7.63
4/16/2013 7.92
5/16/2013 7.28
6/16/2013 7.07
7/16/2013 6.49
8/16/2013 6.28
9/16/2013 6.10
10/16/2013 6.45
11/16/2013 6.19
12/16/2013 5.93
1/16/2014 5.89
2/15/2014 6.03
3/16/2014 5.95
4/16/2014 5.96
5/16/2014 6.14
6/16/2014 5.94
7/16/2014 5.89
8/16/2014 6.17
9/16/2014 5.92
10/16/2014 6.63
11/16/2014 6.00
12/16/2014 6.16
1/16/2015 6.34
2/15/2015 5.83
3/16/2015 5.79
4/16/2015 5.93
5/16/2015 5.72
6/16/2015 5.60
7/16/2015 5.68
8/16/2015 5.92
9/16/2015 6.15
10/16/2015 6.24
11/16/2015 5.78
12/16/2015 5.84
1/16/2016 6.52
2/15/2016 6.57
3/16/2016 6.16
4/16/2016 6.21
5/16/2016 6.35
6/16/2016 6.50
7/16/2016 6.37
8/16/2016 6.27
9/16/2016 6.40
10/16/2016 6.35
11/16/2016 5.93
12/16/2016 5.43
1/16/2017 5.61
2/15/2017 5.42
3/16/2017 5.32
4/16/2017 5.67
5/16/2017 5.67
6/16/2017 5.67
7/16/2017 5.39
8/16/2017 5.54
9/16/2017 5.53
10/16/2017 5.25
11/16/2017 5.34
12/16/2017 5.14
1/16/2018 5.00
2/15/2018 5.15
3/16/2018 5.15
4/16/2018 5.34
5/16/2018 5.31
6/16/2018 5.31
7/16/2018 5.17
8/16/2018 5.25
9/16/2018 5.00
10/16/2018 5.12
11/16/2018 5.45
12/16/2018 6.20
1/16/2019 5.96
2/15/2019 5.65
3/16/2019 5.65
4/16/2019 5.52
5/16/2019 5.79
6/16/2019 5.99
7/16/2019 5.87
8/16/2019 6.61
9/16/2019 6.23
10/16/2019 6.26
11/16/2019 5.98
12/16/2019 5.79
1/16/2020 5.76
2/15/2020 5.87
3/16/2020 8.34
4/16/2020 6.77

Note: Aggregate forward earnings-to-price ratio of S&P 500 firms. Based on expected earnings for 12 months ahead. Real Treasury yields are calculated from the 10-year consumer price index inflation forecast and the smoothed nominal yield curve estimated from off-the-run securities. The median is at ratio 4.62.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations using Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters), Institutional Brokers Estimate System Estimates; Department of the Treasury; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Return to text
1-11. S&P 500 Return Volatility

Figure 1-11: This is a line chart titled "S&P 500 Return Volatility." The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2020. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 70 percent. The data are monthly. The first line is labeled "Option-implied volatility" and is designated by a black line. The line is jagged throughout the plot. It starts around 20 percent in 1997, rises to and falls from around 30 percent at the end of 1997, and rises up from around 20 percent to around 40 percent in both 2001 and 2002. It gradually falls from 2002 through 2006 to around 10 percent, before it rapidly increases to its peak of around 60 percent in late 2008. It quickly declines to around 15 percent in 2010, and rises to 30 percent in late 2010 before falling again to around 15 percent. It rises from 15 percent to around 35 percent and falls back down to around 15 percent in late 2011, and remains steady around 15 percent until 2016, when it rises to almost 25 percent. It falls again from 2016 to the beginning of 2018, when it rises from around 10 percent to around 20 percent. It spikes again beginning October 2018 and ending in December around 25 percent. It then declines throughout 2019, ending around 15 percent in November. In early 2020, there is a large spike to almost 60 percent then a drop to 45 around April of 2020. The second line is labeled "Realized volatility," and is designated by a blue line. It follows mainly the same trends as the black line, but at a slightly lower percent. It begins at just above 10 percent in 1997, rises to just below 20 percent and falls back to around 10 during 1997, and rises in 1998 to around 25 percent before falling to around 15 percent in 1999. It remains between 15 and just above 20 percent until 2002, when it spikes from around 15 percent to almost 30 percent. It then falls gradually from 2002 to 2004, reaching just under 10 percent and staying steadily around 10 percent through the end of 2006. It then quickly increases through 2007 and 2008, reaching its peak of around 60 percent in late 2008. It quickly declines to around 10 percent in 2010, and rises to around 20 percent in late 2010 before falling again to around 10 percent. It rises from 10 to around 25 percent in late 2011, and falls again to below 10 percent, where it gradually declines until late 2015, when it increases from below 10 percent to just above 20 percent. It falls again from around 20 percent to just under 10 percent in 2015, and continues to decline until early 2018. It then spikes up in October 2018 and continues to rise until January 2019, where it peaks around 20 percent and then declines to about 10 percent in November 2019. In early 2020, there is a spike to around 60 percent.

Note: Realized volatility estimated from five-minute returns using an exponentially weighted moving average with 75 percent of the weight distributed over the past 20 days.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP.

Return to text
1-12. Commercial Real Estate Prices (Real)

Monthly; Jan. 2001 = 100

Date Equal-Weighted Value-Weighted
1/16/1998 84.12 91.00
2/15/1998 84.40 90.71
3/16/1998 84.56 90.95
4/16/1998 85.05 90.29
5/16/1998 85.27 92.92
6/16/1998 85.56 94.47
7/16/1998 85.40 93.83
8/16/1998 85.29 93.81
9/16/1998 84.86 93.57
10/16/1998 86.23 93.59
11/16/1998 87.59 93.71
12/16/1998 89.31 93.06
1/16/1999 88.99 91.51
2/15/1999 89.21 91.71
3/16/1999 89.56 91.33
4/16/1999 89.88 90.87
5/16/1999 90.83 91.05
6/16/1999 91.36 91.36
7/16/1999 91.85 91.73
8/16/1999 92.27 93.15
9/16/1999 92.16 93.49
10/16/1999 92.97 93.60
11/16/1999 93.64 93.70
12/16/1999 94.59 93.70
1/16/2000 95.15 93.38
2/15/2000 95.42 91.15
3/16/2000 95.56 89.15
4/16/2000 96.29 88.24
5/16/2000 97.55 91.62
6/16/2000 98.27 94.19
7/16/2000 98.51 96.45
8/16/2000 98.33 98.12
9/16/2000 97.32 99.07
10/16/2000 98.63 100.00
11/16/2000 99.32 100.92
12/16/2000 100.50 101.02
1/16/2001 100.00 100.00
2/15/2001 100.10 99.56
3/16/2001 99.98 99.66
4/16/2001 99.65 99.97
5/16/2001 99.11 99.68
6/16/2001 99.53 98.59
7/16/2001 101.26 98.61
8/16/2001 103.14 98.45
9/16/2001 103.91 97.85
10/16/2001 104.32 96.69
11/16/2001 103.40 95.75
12/16/2001 103.26 95.11
1/16/2002 103.63 95.13
2/15/2002 104.56 96.11
3/16/2002 105.45 96.66
4/16/2002 105.53 96.53
5/16/2002 105.91 96.16
6/16/2002 105.99 95.48
7/16/2002 106.66 95.09
8/16/2002 107.18 95.09
9/16/2002 108.45 95.26
10/16/2002 110.36 95.91
11/16/2002 112.41 97.66
12/16/2002 114.40 100.28
1/16/2003 113.98 101.97
2/15/2003 112.81 102.15
3/16/2003 112.45 101.65
4/16/2003 113.90 101.44
5/16/2003 115.44 101.80
6/16/2003 116.04 101.08
7/16/2003 116.72 100.50
8/16/2003 117.07 98.06
9/16/2003 118.19 96.66
10/16/2003 119.76 96.81
11/16/2003 121.34 97.96
12/16/2003 122.83 99.40
1/16/2004 123.44 99.16
2/15/2004 124.59 101.76
3/16/2004 125.47 102.94
4/16/2004 126.89 106.00
5/16/2004 127.50 105.68
6/16/2004 128.90 107.68
7/16/2004 130.72 109.79
8/16/2004 132.48 112.41
9/16/2004 133.38 114.19
10/16/2004 133.22 115.30
11/16/2004 134.04 115.18
12/16/2004 135.86 114.86
1/16/2005 137.91 113.50
2/15/2005 139.65 114.97
3/16/2005 141.19 115.70
4/16/2005 141.92 117.02
5/16/2005 143.51 116.79
6/16/2005 144.41 117.02
7/16/2005 145.00 117.31
8/16/2005 146.09 117.85
9/16/2005 146.60 118.42
10/16/2005 148.53 120.37
11/16/2005 151.33 123.23
12/16/2005 153.13 125.01
1/16/2006 152.67 124.95
2/15/2006 153.43 125.91
3/16/2006 152.84 127.30
4/16/2006 152.28 128.14
5/16/2006 152.16 129.07
6/16/2006 152.85 129.90
7/16/2006 151.94 131.24
8/16/2006 150.80 132.07
9/16/2006 150.86 132.72
10/16/2006 151.78 133.51
11/16/2006 154.14 134.14
12/16/2006 154.88 136.55
1/16/2007 155.95 138.16
2/15/2007 155.68 139.50
3/16/2007 155.59 139.29
4/16/2007 155.85 140.36
5/16/2007 155.31 141.62
6/16/2007 155.30 142.95
7/16/2007 154.81 144.19
8/16/2007 155.35 145.07
9/16/2007 154.41 144.89
10/16/2007 152.57 145.01
11/16/2007 150.73 144.05
12/16/2007 149.55 143.62
1/16/2008 149.39 141.85
2/15/2008 148.17 135.97
3/16/2008 145.75 130.41
4/16/2008 142.63 124.75
5/16/2008 140.09 127.02
6/16/2008 137.18 128.61
7/16/2008 135.53 131.46
8/16/2008 134.87 128.47
9/16/2008 133.38 125.22
10/16/2008 132.90 124.37
11/16/2008 131.92 126.27
12/16/2008 129.76 126.28
1/16/2009 124.96 124.98
2/15/2009 121.64 120.83
3/16/2009 118.30 117.11
4/16/2009 116.02 110.60
5/16/2009 114.59 103.02
6/16/2009 113.24 95.11
7/16/2009 113.27 90.71
8/16/2009 111.18 91.71
9/16/2009 108.41 92.68
10/16/2009 105.36 92.85
11/16/2009 105.06 89.72
12/16/2009 104.92 87.23
1/16/2010 105.80 85.96
2/15/2010 106.24 86.55
3/16/2010 105.96 88.56
4/16/2010 104.01 91.35
5/16/2010 101.53 94.26
6/16/2010 99.39 94.78
7/16/2010 99.10 94.43
8/16/2010 98.84 94.15
9/16/2010 98.58 94.16
10/16/2010 97.95 94.66
11/16/2010 98.26 93.41
12/16/2010 97.85 93.49
1/16/2011 96.79 93.76
2/15/2011 95.61 95.28
3/16/2011 94.06 95.18
4/16/2011 93.81 94.51
5/16/2011 93.77 93.88
6/16/2011 93.46 93.35
7/16/2011 93.14 92.14
8/16/2011 93.07 91.36
9/16/2011 93.97 91.26
10/16/2011 95.28 93.36
11/16/2011 96.30 95.21
12/16/2011 95.30 97.46
1/16/2012 93.74 98.12
2/15/2012 92.66 98.03
3/16/2012 92.38 95.68
4/16/2012 92.80 94.58
5/16/2012 93.79 94.24
6/16/2012 94.10 96.12
7/16/2012 94.96 97.85
8/16/2012 94.81 98.68
9/16/2012 94.95 97.33
10/16/2012 96.12 96.99
11/16/2012 98.30 97.49
12/16/2012 98.99 99.06
1/16/2013 98.13 99.38
2/15/2013 97.29 99.17
3/16/2013 96.93 100.40
4/16/2013 98.79 102.10
5/16/2013 99.66 104.19
6/16/2013 100.74 104.82
7/16/2013 101.06 107.26
8/16/2013 101.40 108.01
9/16/2013 101.70 109.98
10/16/2013 102.44 110.39
11/16/2013 103.76 111.50
12/16/2013 104.71 110.43
1/16/2014 105.97 110.06
2/15/2014 107.18 109.33
3/16/2014 107.23 109.51
4/16/2014 107.52 109.97
5/16/2014 107.75 110.53
6/16/2014 108.27 111.07
7/16/2014 109.48 111.21
8/16/2014 110.77 112.28
9/16/2014 112.11 112.28
10/16/2014 113.69 114.29
11/16/2014 115.62 115.87
12/16/2014 116.89 120.51
1/16/2015 117.90 124.09
2/15/2015 117.93 128.56
3/16/2015 118.60 126.68
4/16/2015 119.79 126.77
5/16/2015 120.51 124.44
6/16/2015 120.86 125.66
7/16/2015 121.57 125.16
8/16/2015 122.44 125.53
9/16/2015 123.08 126.48
10/16/2015 123.60 126.42
11/16/2015 124.37 126.83
12/16/2015 126.14 126.23
1/16/2016 127.75 125.44
2/15/2016 129.06 124.53
3/16/2016 129.21 122.59
4/16/2016 128.23 122.26
5/16/2016 127.80 123.49
6/16/2016 127.94 125.89
7/16/2016 130.00 128.76
8/16/2016 131.89 129.37
9/16/2016 133.70 128.75
10/16/2016 134.54 129.06
11/16/2016 135.23 130.38
12/16/2016 136.08 131.73
1/16/2017 137.07 130.08
2/15/2017 139.41 129.91
3/16/2017 142.04 130.80
4/16/2017 144.09 132.05
5/16/2017 145.88 132.57
6/16/2017 147.67 131.88
7/16/2017 148.53 131.87
8/16/2017 148.60 133.38
9/16/2017 147.80 134.71
10/16/2017 148.34 137.63
11/16/2017 149.57 138.06
12/16/2017 151.79 137.13
1/16/2018 152.66 134.02
2/15/2018 151.65 135.61
3/16/2018 150.74 138.55
4/16/2018 149.81 142.32
5/16/2018 150.95 139.73
6/16/2018 152.98 135.80
7/16/2018 154.24 133.11
8/16/2018 155.51 134.32
9/16/2018 156.02 135.52
10/16/2018 157.70 135.04
11/16/2018 160.19 135.88
12/16/2018 162.26 137.60
1/16/2019 161.41 140.16
2/15/2019 160.42 142.95
3/16/2019 161.51 142.44
4/16/2019 161.91 142.42
5/16/2019 161.89 142.99
6/16/2019 160.83 146.03
7/16/2019 160.00 147.33
8/16/2019 162.25 147.33
9/16/2019 164.42 145.03
10/16/2019 164.88 142.87
11/16/2019 164.10 142.89
12/16/2019 162.92 144.23
1/16/2020 163.08 145.44
2/15/2020 165.25 145.67

Note: Series deflated using the consumer price index seasonally adjusted by Board staff.

Source: CoStar Group, Inc., CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Indices; Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

Return to text
1-13. Capitalization Rate at Property Purchase

Percent

Date Capitalization rate
1/16/2001 8.51
2/15/2001 8.55
3/16/2001 8.57
4/16/2001 8.58
5/16/2001 8.65
6/16/2001 8.69
7/16/2001 8.77
8/16/2001 8.85
9/16/2001 8.98
10/16/2001 9.00
11/16/2001 8.99
12/16/2001 9.02
1/16/2002 9.01
2/15/2002 9.01
3/16/2002 8.93
4/16/2002 8.90
5/16/2002 8.74
6/16/2002 8.68
7/16/2002 8.58
8/16/2002 8.51
9/16/2002 8.43
10/16/2002 8.37
11/16/2002 8.36
12/16/2002 8.37
1/16/2003 8.35
2/15/2003 8.38
3/16/2003 8.42
4/16/2003 8.47
5/16/2003 8.35
6/16/2003 8.20
7/16/2003 8.11
8/16/2003 8.01
9/16/2003 8.05
10/16/2003 8.01
11/16/2003 8.07
12/16/2003 7.95
1/16/2004 7.90
2/15/2004 7.79
3/16/2004 7.72
4/16/2004 7.71
5/16/2004 7.75
6/16/2004 7.74
7/16/2004 7.73
8/16/2004 7.67
9/16/2004 7.62
10/16/2004 7.55
11/16/2004 7.46
12/16/2004 7.29
1/16/2005 7.25
2/15/2005 7.24
3/16/2005 7.28
4/16/2005 7.24
5/16/2005 7.17
6/16/2005 7.11
7/16/2005 7.06
8/16/2005 7.01
9/16/2005 6.95
10/16/2005 6.88
11/16/2005 6.86
12/16/2005 6.82
1/16/2006 6.79
2/15/2006 6.78
3/16/2006 6.75
4/16/2006 6.76
5/16/2006 6.74
6/16/2006 6.75
7/16/2006 6.68
8/16/2006 6.67
9/16/2006 6.65
10/16/2006 6.70
11/16/2006 6.70
12/16/2006 6.70
1/16/2007 6.64
2/15/2007 6.62
3/16/2007 6.59
4/16/2007 6.57
5/16/2007 6.53
6/16/2007 6.53
7/16/2007 6.55
8/16/2007 6.58
9/16/2007 6.58
10/16/2007 6.61
11/16/2007 6.66
12/16/2007 6.70
1/16/2008 6.69
2/15/2008 6.79
3/16/2008 6.87
4/16/2008 6.98
5/16/2008 6.95
6/16/2008 6.99
7/16/2008 6.99
8/16/2008 6.99
9/16/2008 6.97
10/16/2008 6.95
11/16/2008 7.04
12/16/2008 7.16
1/16/2009 7.40
2/15/2009 7.40
3/16/2009 7.36
4/16/2009 7.21
5/16/2009 7.27
6/16/2009 7.39
7/16/2009 7.74
8/16/2009 7.82
9/16/2009 7.88
10/16/2009 7.79
11/16/2009 7.82
12/16/2009 7.88
1/16/2010 7.84
2/15/2010 7.84
3/16/2010 7.80
4/16/2010 7.90
5/16/2010 7.84
6/16/2010 7.74
7/16/2010 7.68
8/16/2010 7.74
9/16/2010 7.70
10/16/2010 7.65
11/16/2010 7.54
12/16/2010 7.51
1/16/2011 7.52
2/15/2011 7.49
3/16/2011 7.41
4/16/2011 7.43
5/16/2011 7.40
6/16/2011 7.37
7/16/2011 7.27
8/16/2011 7.21
9/16/2011 7.19
10/16/2011 7.24
11/16/2011 7.24
12/16/2011 7.25
1/16/2012 7.14
2/15/2012 7.20
3/16/2012 7.14
4/16/2012 7.17
5/16/2012 7.09
6/16/2012 7.05
7/16/2012 7.05
8/16/2012 7.06
9/16/2012 7.05
10/16/2012 7.03
11/16/2012 6.96
12/16/2012 6.96
1/16/2013 6.96
2/15/2013 6.98
3/16/2013 7.03
4/16/2013 6.98
5/16/2013 7.02
6/16/2013 6.94
7/16/2013 6.96
8/16/2013 6.85
9/16/2013 6.86
10/16/2013 6.90
11/16/2013 6.97
12/16/2013 6.93
1/16/2014 6.82
2/15/2014 6.76
3/16/2014 6.72
4/16/2014 6.78
5/16/2014 6.80
6/16/2014 6.76
7/16/2014 6.70
8/16/2014 6.65
9/16/2014 6.60
10/16/2014 6.59
11/16/2014 6.59
12/16/2014 6.57
1/16/2015 6.52
2/15/2015 6.50
3/16/2015 6.51
4/16/2015 6.47
5/16/2015 6.46
6/16/2015 6.45
7/16/2015 6.48
8/16/2015 6.44
9/16/2015 6.42
10/16/2015 6.40
11/16/2015 6.37
12/16/2015 6.34
1/16/2016 6.37
2/15/2016 6.37
3/16/2016 6.39
4/16/2016 6.29
5/16/2016 6.32
6/16/2016 6.32
7/16/2016 6.30
8/16/2016 6.29
9/16/2016 6.24
10/16/2016 6.26
11/16/2016 6.27
12/16/2016 6.34
1/16/2017 6.35
2/15/2017 6.34
3/16/2017 6.35
4/16/2017 6.37
5/16/2017 6.33
6/16/2017 6.23
7/16/2017 6.18
8/16/2017 6.19
9/16/2017 6.18
10/16/2017 6.21
11/16/2017 6.20
12/16/2017 6.23
1/16/2018 6.21
2/15/2018 6.19
3/16/2018 6.19
4/16/2018 6.19
5/16/2018 6.17
6/16/2018 6.18
7/16/2018 6.19
8/16/2018 6.21
9/16/2018 6.22
10/16/2018 6.22
11/16/2018 6.20
12/16/2018 6.13
1/16/2019 6.15
2/15/2019 6.13
3/16/2019 6.21
4/16/2019 6.18
5/16/2019 6.27
6/16/2019 6.21
7/16/2019 6.23
8/16/2019 6.14
9/16/2019 6.11
10/16/2019 6.10
11/16/2019 6.07
12/16/2019 6.05
1/16/2020 6.09
2/15/2020 6.15
3/16/2020 6.24

Note: The data are three-month moving averages of weighted capitalization rates in the industrial, retail, office, and multifamily sectors, based on national square footage in 2009.

Source: Real Capital Analytics; Andrew C. Florance, Norm G. Miller, Ruijue Peng, and Jay Spivey (2010), "Slicing, Dicing, and Scoping the Size of the U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, vol. 16 (May-August), pp.101–18.

Return to text
1-14. Spread of Capitalization Rate at Property Purchase to 10-Year Treasury Yield

percentage points

Date Spread of capitalization rate
1/16/2001 n.a.
2/15/2001 n.a.
3/16/2001 3.52
4/16/2001 3.54
5/16/2001 3.51
6/16/2001 3.42
7/16/2001 3.47
8/16/2001 3.69
9/16/2001 4.00
10/16/2001 4.24
11/16/2001 4.34
12/16/2001 4.25
1/16/2002 4.08
2/15/2002 4.00
3/16/2002 3.86
4/16/2002 3.77
5/16/2002 3.52
6/16/2002 3.58
7/16/2002 3.67
8/16/2002 3.90
9/16/2002 4.17
10/16/2002 4.35
11/16/2002 4.40
12/16/2002 4.37
1/16/2003 4.30
2/15/2003 4.38
3/16/2003 4.50
4/16/2003 4.58
5/16/2003 4.57
6/16/2003 4.58
7/16/2003 4.49
8/16/2003 4.09
9/16/2003 3.82
10/16/2003 3.67
11/16/2003 3.79
12/16/2003 3.67
1/16/2004 3.66
2/15/2004 3.62
3/16/2004 3.70
4/16/2004 3.62
5/16/2004 3.45
6/16/2004 3.14
7/16/2004 3.08
8/16/2004 3.16
9/16/2004 3.32
10/16/2004 3.38
11/16/2004 3.32
12/16/2004 3.12
1/16/2005 3.04
2/15/2005 3.04
3/16/2005 2.98
4/16/2005 2.90
5/16/2005 2.85
6/16/2005 2.95
7/16/2005 2.95
8/16/2005 2.86
9/16/2005 2.74
10/16/2005 2.57
11/16/2005 2.46
12/16/2005 2.33
1/16/2006 2.32
2/15/2006 2.29
3/16/2006 2.18
4/16/2006 2.00
5/16/2006 1.80
6/16/2006 1.68
7/16/2006 1.58
8/16/2006 1.64
9/16/2006 1.75
10/16/2006 1.93
11/16/2006 2.02
12/16/2006 2.07
1/16/2007 2.00
2/15/2007 1.94
3/16/2007 1.91
4/16/2007 1.91
5/16/2007 1.86
6/16/2007 1.69
7/16/2007 1.60
8/16/2007 1.65
9/16/2007 1.85
10/16/2007 2.03
11/16/2007 2.26
12/16/2007 2.44
1/16/2008 2.69
2/15/2008 2.93
3/16/2008 3.21
4/16/2008 3.34
5/16/2008 3.26
6/16/2008 3.10
7/16/2008 2.99
8/16/2008 2.99
9/16/2008 3.11
10/16/2008 3.15
11/16/2008 3.36
12/16/2008 3.91
1/16/2009 4.57
2/15/2009 4.80
3/16/2009 4.63
4/16/2009 4.33
5/16/2009 4.25
6/16/2009 4.08
7/16/2009 4.21
8/16/2009 4.20
9/16/2009 4.36
10/16/2009 4.33
11/16/2009 4.42
12/16/2009 4.42
1/16/2010 4.27
2/15/2010 4.17
3/16/2010 4.08
4/16/2010 4.15
5/16/2010 4.18
6/16/2010 4.25
7/16/2010 4.47
8/16/2010 4.77
9/16/2010 4.91
10/16/2010 5.02
11/16/2010 4.89
12/16/2010 4.65
1/16/2011 4.37
2/15/2011 4.07
3/16/2011 3.95
4/16/2011 3.94
5/16/2011 4.06
6/16/2011 4.16
7/16/2011 4.21
8/16/2011 4.44
9/16/2011 4.76
10/16/2011 5.09
11/16/2011 5.19
12/16/2011 5.20
1/16/2012 5.16
2/15/2012 5.23
3/16/2012 5.11
4/16/2012 5.11
5/16/2012 5.08
6/16/2012 5.23
7/16/2012 5.40
8/16/2012 5.45
9/16/2012 5.40
10/16/2012 5.32
11/16/2012 5.25
12/16/2012 5.25
1/16/2013 5.20
2/15/2013 5.11
3/16/2013 5.08
4/16/2013 5.08
5/16/2013 5.14
6/16/2013 4.94
7/16/2013 4.69
8/16/2013 4.31
9/16/2013 4.15
10/16/2013 4.17
11/16/2013 4.26
12/16/2013 4.18
1/16/2014 4.00
2/15/2014 3.93
3/16/2014 3.96
4/16/2014 4.06
5/16/2014 4.14
6/16/2014 4.14
7/16/2014 4.14
8/16/2014 4.13
9/16/2014 4.11
10/16/2014 4.17
11/16/2014 4.20
12/16/2014 4.29
1/16/2015 4.38
2/15/2015 4.48
3/16/2015 4.54
4/16/2015 4.48
5/16/2015 4.40
6/16/2015 4.28
7/16/2015 4.18
8/16/2015 4.16
9/16/2015 4.20
10/16/2015 4.26
11/16/2015 4.21
12/16/2015 4.15
1/16/2016 4.17
2/15/2016 4.34
3/16/2016 4.47
4/16/2016 4.47
5/16/2016 4.48
6/16/2016 4.56
7/16/2016 4.65
8/16/2016 4.72
9/16/2016 4.68
10/16/2016 4.61
11/16/2016 4.43
12/16/2016 4.21
1/16/2017 3.99
2/15/2017 3.89
3/16/2017 3.91
4/16/2017 3.97
5/16/2017 3.97
6/16/2017 3.97
7/16/2017 3.91
8/16/2017 3.95
9/16/2017 3.94
10/16/2017 3.95
11/16/2017 3.89
12/16/2017 3.86
1/16/2018 3.76
2/15/2018 3.58
3/16/2018 3.43
4/16/2018 3.34
5/16/2018 3.27
6/16/2018 3.26
7/16/2018 3.26
8/16/2018 3.32
9/16/2018 3.29
10/16/2018 3.20
11/16/2018 3.11
12/16/2018 3.10
1/16/2019 3.27
2/15/2019 3.39
3/16/2019 3.56
4/16/2019 3.59
5/16/2019 3.77
6/16/2019 3.88
7/16/2019 4.05
8/16/2019 4.22
9/16/2019 4.31
10/16/2019 4.42
11/16/2019 4.33
12/16/2019 4.26
1/16/2020 4.28
2/15/2020 4.44
3/16/2020 4.86

Note: The data are three-month moving averages of weighted capitalization rates in the industrial, retail, office, and multifamily sectors, based on national square footage in 2009. The median is at 4.05 percentage points.

Source: Real Capital Analytics; Department of the Treasury; Andrew C. Florance, Norm G. Miller, Ruijue Peng, and Jay Spivey (2010), "Slicing, Dicing, and Scoping the Size of the U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, vol. 16 (May-August), pp. 101–18.

Return to text
1-15. Change in Bank Standards for Commercial Real Estate Loans

Figure 1-15: This is a line chart titled “Change in Bank Standards for CRE Loans.” The x axis measures time and ranges from the years 1997 to 2020. The y axis ranges from -100 to 100, which measures the net percentage of banks reporting on the right. On the left y axis, from -100 to 0, is labeled “Easing” and from 0 to 100 is labeled “Tightening.” There is one variable charted on the plot and it is the net percentage of banks reporting in the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. It is represented by a solid black line. It begins at 0 and spikes to 50 in 1999. It declines until 2000 with a spike back up to 60 in 2001 then steadily declines until 2005. It then increases until 2009. It decreases to around -20 in 2011 and remains fairly steady until 2016. It then increases and hits 30 in 2017. It goes negative again until 2019 where it increases to around 19 in 2019 Q3. At the end of 2019 it drops to zero. There is then a large spike to 80 in 2020 Q1.

Note: Banks’ responses are weighted by their commercial real estate (CRE) loan market shares. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001 and December 2007–June 2009. Survey respondents to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices are asked about the changes over the quarter.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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1-16. Farmland Prices

2018 dollars per acre

Date Midwest index United States
7/2/1967 2493.22 n.a.
7/2/1968 2615.12 n.a.
7/2/1969 2564.46 n.a.
7/2/1970 2452.95 n.a.
7/2/1971 2292.74 n.a.
7/2/1972 2296.35 n.a.
7/2/1973 2469.66 n.a.
7/2/1974 2981.72 n.a.
7/2/1975 3321.74 n.a.
7/2/1976 3902.34 n.a.
7/2/1977 4683.21 n.a.
7/2/1978 4890.56 n.a.
7/2/1979 4962.69 n.a.
7/2/1980 4966.52 n.a.
7/2/1981 4724.66 n.a.
7/2/1982 4305.53 n.a.
7/2/1983 3655.29 n.a.
7/2/1984 3212.81 n.a.
7/2/1985 2291.07 n.a.
7/2/1986 1819.63 n.a.
7/2/1987 1548.06 n.a.
7/2/1988 1695.74 n.a.
7/2/1989 1855.42 n.a.
7/2/1990 1862.73 n.a.
7/2/1991 1822.21 n.a.
7/2/1992 1827.71 n.a.
7/2/1993 1829.65 n.a.
7/2/1994 2218.76 n.a.
7/2/1995 2141.02 n.a.
7/2/1996 2286.39 n.a.
7/2/1997 2104.07 1986.62
7/2/1998 2223.82 2064.19
7/2/1999 2245.22 2110.33
7/2/2000 2215.45 2129.09
7/2/2001 2199.67 2141.68
7/2/2002 2232.84 2219.73
7/2/2003 2262.18 2265.40
7/2/2004 2364.23 2326.17
7/2/2005 2731.75 2649.07
7/2/2006 2946.30 2977.50
7/2/2007 3264.90 3063.96
7/2/2008 3643.17 3219.67
7/2/2009 3462.31 3124.69
7/2/2010 3646.77 3108.92
7/2/2011 4232.39 3326.87
7/2/2012 4956.39 3663.98
7/2/2013 5675.15 4106.89
7/2/2014 6105.41 4338.62
7/2/2015 5862.76 4344.04
7/2/2016 5586.96 4226.78
7/2/2017 5414.45 4128.15
7/2/2018 5283.84 4050.00
7/2/2019 5175.02 4018.97

Note: The data for the United States start in 1997. Midwest index is a weighted average of Corn Belt and Great Plains states that comes from staff calculations. Values are given in real terms. Data end in 2019. The median line is at 2615 dollars per acre.

Source: Department of Agriculture; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text
1-17. Farmland Price-to-Rent Ratio

Ratio

Date Midwest index United States
7/2/1967 14.13 n.a.
7/2/1968 14.20 n.a.
7/2/1969 14.20 n.a.
7/2/1970 13.99 n.a.
7/2/1971 13.51 n.a.
7/2/1972 13.40 n.a.
7/2/1973 14.17 n.a.
7/2/1974 14.53 n.a.
7/2/1975 14.60 n.a.
7/2/1976 16.16 n.a.
7/2/1977 18.02 n.a.
7/2/1978 19.56 n.a.
7/2/1979 20.58 n.a.
7/2/1980 21.55 n.a.
7/2/1981 21.25 n.a.
7/2/1982 19.56 n.a.
7/2/1983 17.42 n.a.
7/2/1984 15.95 n.a.
7/2/1985 13.00 n.a.
7/2/1986 11.90 n.a.
7/2/1987 11.72 n.a.
7/2/1988 12.52 n.a.
7/2/1989 13.30 n.a.
7/2/1990 13.41 n.a.
7/2/1991 13.51 n.a.
7/2/1992 13.74 n.a.
7/2/1993 13.89 n.a.
7/2/1994 17.97 n.a.
7/2/1995 17.35 n.a.
7/2/1996 18.36 n.a.
7/2/1997 16.67 n.a.
7/2/1998 17.47 20.15
7/2/1999 18.20 20.74
7/2/2000 17.84 20.86
7/2/2001 17.95 21.27
7/2/2002 18.18 22.21
7/2/2003 18.63 22.74
7/2/2004 19.45 22.88
7/2/2005 22.50 26.41
7/2/2006 24.61 30.06
7/2/2007 25.78 32.65
7/2/2008 26.32 32.28
7/2/2009 24.43 26.97
7/2/2010 25.44 26.47
7/2/2011 27.84 26.85
7/2/2012 28.48 26.80
7/2/2013 30.45 28.01
7/2/2014 32.19 29.01
7/2/2015 31.64 28.47
7/2/2016 32.10 29.71
7/2/2017 32.28 29.63
7/2/2018 31.89 29.35
7/2/2019 32.05 29.29

Note: The data for the United States start in 1998. Midwest index is the weighted average of Corn Belt and Great Plains states. Data end in 2019. The median line is at ratio 17.97.

Source: Department of Agriculture; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Return to text
1-18. Growth of Nominal Prices of Existing Homes

Twelve-month percent change

Date Zillow Core Logic
1/16/2011 -4.03 -3.56
2/15/2011 -4.44 -3.51
3/16/2011 -4.91 -4.31
4/16/2011 -5.48 -4.53
5/16/2011 -6.02 -4.42
6/16/2011 -6.38 -3.89
7/16/2011 -6.36 -3.04
8/16/2011 -6.18 -2.30
9/16/2011 -5.86 -1.60
10/16/2011 -5.56 -1.33
11/16/2011 -5.18 -1.31
12/16/2011 -4.82 -0.94
1/16/2012 -4.40 -0.34
2/15/2012 -3.95 0.61
3/16/2012 -3.36 1.94
4/16/2012 -2.62 2.74
5/16/2012 -1.77 3.43
6/16/2012 -0.99 3.81
7/16/2012 -0.33 4.16
8/16/2012 0.26 4.70
9/16/2012 0.83 5.33
10/16/2012 1.48 6.03
11/16/2012 2.17 6.99
12/16/2012 2.91 7.80
1/16/2013 3.65 8.66
2/15/2013 4.36 9.31
3/16/2013 5.02 9.89
4/16/2013 5.59 9.92
5/16/2013 6.10 9.73
6/16/2013 6.63 9.35
7/16/2013 7.14 9.41
8/16/2013 7.62 9.57
9/16/2013 8.01 9.89
10/16/2013 8.30 10.10
11/16/2013 8.45 10.06
12/16/2013 8.49 9.89
1/16/2014 8.43 9.83
2/15/2014 8.32 9.79
3/16/2014 8.03 8.97
4/16/2014 7.63 8.00
5/16/2014 7.17 7.06
6/16/2014 6.72 6.33
7/16/2014 6.24 5.72
8/16/2014 5.73 5.32
9/16/2014 5.24 5.08
10/16/2014 4.85 5.11
11/16/2014 4.60 5.05
12/16/2014 4.43 4.99
1/16/2015 4.27 5.02
2/15/2015 4.15 5.14
3/16/2015 4.21 5.25
4/16/2015 4.36 5.27
5/16/2015 4.54 5.24
6/16/2015 4.64 5.22
7/16/2015 4.74 5.11
8/16/2015 4.91 5.09
9/16/2015 5.10 5.27
10/16/2015 5.23 5.35
11/16/2015 5.24 5.44
12/16/2015 5.28 5.60
1/16/2016 5.38 5.67
2/15/2016 5.47 5.61
3/16/2016 5.44 5.59
4/16/2016 5.41 5.56
5/16/2016 5.38 5.37
6/16/2016 5.45 5.14
7/16/2016 5.53 5.15
8/16/2016 5.59 5.16
9/16/2016 5.64 5.23
10/16/2016 5.70 5.35
11/16/2016 5.83 5.48
12/16/2016 5.92 5.48
1/16/2017 5.95 5.51
2/15/2017 5.95 5.70
3/16/2017 6.05 5.74
4/16/2017 6.16 5.66
5/16/2017 6.26 5.70
6/16/2017 6.32 5.81
7/16/2017 6.34 5.83
8/16/2017 6.37 5.91
9/16/2017 6.41 5.96
10/16/2017 6.48 6.05
11/16/2017 6.54 6.13
12/16/2017 6.59 6.12
1/16/2018 6.63 6.07
2/15/2018 6.70 6.31
3/16/2018 6.73 6.52
4/16/2018 6.73 6.51
5/16/2018 6.70 6.37
6/16/2018 6.65 6.11
7/16/2018 6.61 5.83
8/16/2018 6.54 5.54
9/16/2018 6.41 5.33
10/16/2018 6.23 5.21
11/16/2018 6.02 4.87
12/16/2018 5.82 4.47
1/16/2019 5.64 4.21
2/15/2019 5.40 3.95
3/16/2019 5.11 3.64
4/16/2019 4.80 3.55
5/16/2019 4.53 3.54
6/16/2019 4.32 3.40
7/16/2019 4.15 3.32
8/16/2019 4.02 3.37
9/16/2019 3.92 3.35
10/16/2019 3.86 3.32
11/16/2019 3.81 3.49
12/16/2019 3.78 3.70
1/16/2020 3.78 3.86
2/15/2020 3.87 4.06

Source: CoreLogic Real Estate Data; Zillow, Inc., Zillow Real Estate Data.

Return to text
1-19. Housing Price-to-Rent Ratio

Trend at Feb. 2019 =100

Date Long-run trend Price-to-rent ratio
1/16/1983 78.97 75.24
2/15/1983 79.01 75.06
3/16/1983 79.06 75.11
4/16/1983 79.10 75.06
5/16/1983 79.14 75.31
6/16/1983 79.19 75.36
7/16/1983 79.24 75.48
8/16/1983 79.30 75.58
9/16/1983 79.35 75.50
10/16/1983 79.40 75.67
11/16/1983 79.44 75.77
12/16/1983 79.49 75.83
1/16/1984 79.54 75.83
2/15/1984 79.59 75.88
3/16/1984 79.64 75.66
4/16/1984 79.69 75.38
5/16/1984 79.75 75.49
6/16/1984 79.80 75.40
7/16/1984 79.86 75.38
8/16/1984 79.92 75.30
9/16/1984 79.98 75.29
10/16/1984 80.02 75.19
11/16/1984 80.06 75.10
12/16/1984 80.11 74.73
1/16/1985 80.16 74.67
2/15/1985 80.20 74.48
3/16/1985 80.25 74.53
4/16/1985 80.29 74.66
5/16/1985 80.34 74.40
6/16/1985 80.38 74.44
7/16/1985 80.42 74.54
8/16/1985 80.46 74.44
9/16/1985 80.50 74.59
10/16/1985 80.54 74.49
11/16/1985 80.59 74.44
12/16/1985 80.63 74.76
1/16/1986 80.68 75.03
2/15/1986 80.71 75.55
3/16/1986 80.76 75.43
4/16/1986 80.80 75.00
5/16/1986 80.85 75.47
6/16/1986 80.89 75.85
7/16/1986 80.94 76.05
8/16/1986 80.99 76.78
9/16/1986 81.04 77.08
10/16/1986 81.08 77.32
11/16/1986 81.12 77.67
12/16/1986 81.17 78.18
1/16/1987 81.21 78.59
2/15/1987 81.25 79.11
3/16/1987 81.30 79.67
4/16/1987 81.36 80.26
5/16/1987 81.42 80.76
6/16/1987 81.48 81.53
7/16/1987 81.53 81.84
8/16/1987 81.57 82.02
9/16/1987 81.62 82.30
10/16/1987 81.68 82.68
11/16/1987 81.73 83.36
12/16/1987 81.79 83.30
1/16/1988 81.83 83.56
2/15/1988 81.87 83.82
3/16/1988 81.91 84.10
4/16/1988 81.96 84.54
5/16/1988 82.02 85.07
6/16/1988 82.07 85.69
7/16/1988 82.12 86.40
8/16/1988 82.17 86.99
9/16/1988 82.22 87.46
10/16/1988 82.27 88.14
11/16/1988 82.32 88.65
12/16/1988 82.37 89.12
1/16/1989 82.43 89.50
2/15/1989 82.48 89.84
3/16/1989 82.53 90.26
4/16/1989 82.58 90.61
5/16/1989 82.62 90.78
6/16/1989 82.67 90.69
7/16/1989 82.71 90.67
8/16/1989 82.76 90.84
9/16/1989 82.80 91.21
10/16/1989 82.85 91.17
11/16/1989 82.90 91.26
12/16/1989 82.95 91.37
1/16/1990 83.01 91.46
2/15/1990 83.06 91.61
3/16/1990 83.11 91.48
4/16/1990 83.16 91.29
5/16/1990 83.21 91.05
6/16/1990 83.25 90.61
7/16/1990 83.30 90.12
8/16/1990 83.34 89.56
9/16/1990 83.39 89.12
10/16/1990 83.43 88.63
11/16/1990 83.48 88.30
12/16/1990 83.53 87.72
1/16/1991 83.58 87.33
2/15/1991 83.62 86.85
3/16/1991 83.66 86.34
4/16/1991 83.71 86.05
5/16/1991 83.76 85.87
6/16/1991 83.81 85.90
7/16/1991 83.86 85.63
8/16/1991 83.91 85.61
9/16/1991 83.96 84.98
10/16/1991 84.00 84.86
11/16/1991 84.04 84.48
12/16/1991 84.09 84.23
1/16/1992 84.14 84.06
2/15/1992 84.19 83.95
3/16/1992 84.25 83.43
4/16/1992 84.29 83.63
5/16/1992 84.34 83.40
6/16/1992 84.39 83.09
7/16/1992 84.43 82.80
8/16/1992 84.48 82.77
9/16/1992 84.52 82.75
10/16/1992 84.57 82.31
11/16/1992 84.62 82.04
12/16/1992 84.67 82.06
1/16/1993 84.71 81.92
2/15/1993 84.75 81.86
3/16/1993 84.80 81.90
4/16/1993 84.84 81.67
5/16/1993 84.88 81.58
6/16/1993 84.92 81.50
7/16/1993 84.97 81.69
8/16/1993 85.02 81.67
9/16/1993 85.06 81.89
10/16/1993 85.11 81.93
11/16/1993 85.16 82.14
12/16/1993 85.21 82.10
1/16/1994 85.26 82.06
2/15/1994 85.31 81.81
3/16/1994 85.36 81.60
4/16/1994 85.42 81.73
5/16/1994 85.48 81.82
6/16/1994 85.54 81.97
7/16/1994 85.59 81.87
8/16/1994 85.64 81.67
9/16/1994 85.69 81.54
10/16/1994 85.74 81.55
11/16/1994 85.80 81.46
12/16/1994 85.85 81.47
1/16/1995 85.90 81.37
2/15/1995 85.94 81.35
3/16/1995 85.99 81.24
4/16/1995 86.03 81.24
5/16/1995 86.06 81.23
6/16/1995 86.10 81.30
7/16/1995 86.15 81.31
8/16/1995 86.20 81.40
9/16/1995 86.24 81.48
10/16/1995 86.29 81.45
11/16/1995 86.34 81.42
12/16/1995 86.38 81.38
1/16/1996 86.43 81.38
2/15/1996 86.48 81.42
3/16/1996 86.53 81.53
4/16/1996 86.58 81.61
5/16/1996 86.64 81.59
6/16/1996 86.69 81.52
7/16/1996 86.74 81.40
8/16/1996 86.79 81.43
9/16/1996 86.84 81.39
10/16/1996 86.88 81.34
11/16/1996 86.93 81.35
12/16/1996 86.97 81.37
1/16/1997 87.02 81.40
2/15/1997 87.07 81.43
3/16/1997 87.12 81.48
4/16/1997 87.17 81.50
5/16/1997 87.22 81.52
6/16/1997 87.27 81.62
7/16/1997 87.31 81.79
8/16/1997 87.36 81.92
9/16/1997 87.40 82.08
10/16/1997 87.45 82.32
11/16/1997 87.50 82.58
12/16/1997 87.55 82.88
1/16/1998 87.60 83.24
2/15/1998 87.64 83.60
3/16/1998 87.69 83.90
4/16/1998 87.74 84.14
5/16/1998 87.79 84.35
6/16/1998 87.84 84.52
7/16/1998 87.88 84.77
8/16/1998 87.93 85.02
9/16/1998 87.97 85.32
10/16/1998 88.02 85.69
11/16/1998 88.07 86.02
12/16/1998 88.12 86.37
1/16/1999 88.17 86.66
2/15/1999 88.22 86.98
3/16/1999 88.27 87.26
4/16/1999 88.32 87.57
5/16/1999 88.37 88.00
6/16/1999 88.42 88.47
7/16/1999 88.47 88.91
8/16/1999 88.53 89.35
9/16/1999 88.58 89.76
10/16/1999 88.63 90.24
11/16/1999 88.67 90.43
12/16/1999 88.72 90.90
1/16/2000 88.78 91.24
2/15/2000 88.83 91.84
3/16/2000 88.88 92.42
4/16/2000 88.93 93.06
5/16/2000 88.98 93.63
6/16/2000 89.02 94.14
7/16/2000 89.07 94.49
8/16/2000 89.12 94.85
9/16/2000 89.16 95.21
10/16/2000 89.20 95.54
11/16/2000 89.25 95.98
12/16/2000 89.29 96.36
1/16/2001 89.34 96.84
2/15/2001 89.38 97.24
3/16/2001 89.42 97.56
4/16/2001 89.47 97.81
5/16/2001 89.52 97.92
6/16/2001 89.57 98.17
7/16/2001 89.62 98.41
8/16/2001 89.66 98.63
9/16/2001 89.71 98.87
10/16/2001 89.75 99.07
11/16/2001 89.80 99.27
12/16/2001 89.84 99.36
1/16/2002 89.90 99.61
2/15/2002 89.94 99.84
3/16/2002 90.00 100.23
4/16/2002 90.04 100.79
5/16/2002 90.09 101.44
6/16/2002 90.14 102.05
7/16/2002 90.18 102.69
8/16/2002 90.22 103.32
9/16/2002 90.26 103.86
10/16/2002 90.31 104.30
11/16/2002 90.36 104.71
12/16/2002 90.40 105.17
1/16/2003 90.45 105.47
2/15/2003 90.50 105.94
3/16/2003 90.55 106.37
4/16/2003 90.59 106.78
5/16/2003 90.64 107.23
6/16/2003 90.68 107.87
7/16/2003 90.73 108.50
8/16/2003 90.79 109.23
9/16/2003 90.84 110.04
10/16/2003 90.89 110.97
11/16/2003 90.93 111.82
12/16/2003 90.98 112.73
1/16/2004 91.03 113.67
2/15/2004 91.07 114.55
3/16/2004 91.12 115.51
4/16/2004 91.17 116.46
5/16/2004 91.23 117.46
6/16/2004 91.28 118.43
7/16/2004 91.33 119.40
8/16/2004 91.38 120.23
9/16/2004 91.42 121.17
10/16/2004 91.47 122.18
11/16/2004 91.52 123.27
12/16/2004 91.57 124.20
1/16/2005 91.62 125.23
2/15/2005 91.66 126.35
3/16/2005 91.72 127.49
4/16/2005 91.76 128.59
5/16/2005 91.81 129.64
6/16/2005 91.86 130.62
7/16/2005 91.91 131.46
8/16/2005 91.95 132.38
9/16/2005 92.00 133.22
10/16/2005 92.05 133.95
11/16/2005 92.10 134.66
12/16/2005 92.15 135.32
1/16/2006 92.20 135.89
2/15/2006 92.24 136.11
3/16/2006 92.29 136.08
4/16/2006 92.34 135.82
5/16/2006 92.39 135.33
6/16/2006 92.44 134.69
7/16/2006 92.48 134.05
8/16/2006 92.53 133.35
9/16/2006 92.58 132.77
10/16/2006 92.62 132.30
11/16/2006 92.67 131.90
12/16/2006 92.71 131.38
1/16/2007 92.77 130.87
2/15/2007 92.81 130.08
3/16/2007 92.87 129.17
4/16/2007 92.92 128.10
5/16/2007 92.97 126.81
6/16/2007 93.02 125.44
7/16/2007 93.07 124.07
8/16/2007 93.12 122.83
9/16/2007 93.17 121.54
10/16/2007 93.21 120.11
11/16/2007 93.25 118.68
12/16/2007 93.30 117.23
1/16/2008 93.34 115.73
2/15/2008 93.39 114.13
3/16/2008 93.43 112.34
4/16/2008 93.48 110.40
5/16/2008 93.53 108.57
6/16/2008 93.58 106.63
7/16/2008 93.63 104.80
8/16/2008 93.68 102.94
9/16/2008 93.73 101.01
10/16/2008 93.78 98.94
11/16/2008 93.82 96.89
12/16/2008 93.86 95.06
1/16/2009 93.91 93.45
2/15/2009 93.94 92.27
3/16/2009 93.98 91.50
4/16/2009 94.03 91.07
5/16/2009 94.08 90.96
6/16/2009 94.12 91.05
7/16/2009 94.18 91.25
8/16/2009 94.23 91.37
9/16/2009 94.28 91.54
10/16/2009 94.32 91.79
11/16/2009 94.37 91.98
12/16/2009 94.42 92.09
1/16/2010 94.47 92.08
2/15/2010 94.51 92.08
3/16/2010 94.56 92.03
4/16/2010 94.61 91.94
5/16/2010 94.66 91.71
6/16/2010 94.70 91.20
7/16/2010 94.75 90.56
8/16/2010 94.79 89.93
9/16/2010 94.83 89.17
10/16/2010 94.88 88.71
11/16/2010 94.93 88.20
12/16/2010 94.98 87.80
1/16/2011 95.04 87.36
2/15/2011 95.08 86.88
3/16/2011 95.13 86.39
4/16/2011 95.18 86.00
5/16/2011 95.22 85.73
6/16/2011 95.26 85.61
7/16/2011 95.31 85.61
8/16/2011 95.35 85.45
9/16/2011 95.40 85.32
10/16/2011 95.44 85.05
11/16/2011 95.49 84.82
12/16/2011 95.54 84.60
1/16/2012 95.59 84.58
2/15/2012 95.63 84.71
3/16/2012 95.68 85.08
4/16/2012 95.73 85.57
5/16/2012 95.78 86.22
6/16/2012 95.82 86.87
7/16/2012 95.87 87.36
8/16/2012 95.91 87.80
9/16/2012 95.96 88.16
10/16/2012 96.01 88.44
11/16/2012 96.05 88.96
12/16/2012 96.10 89.50
1/16/2013 96.15 90.05
2/15/2013 96.20 90.64
3/16/2013 96.25 91.27
4/16/2013 96.30 92.01
5/16/2013 96.35 92.61
6/16/2013 96.40 93.22
7/16/2013 96.45 93.86
8/16/2013 96.51 94.31
9/16/2013 96.56 94.90
10/16/2013 96.61 95.43
11/16/2013 96.65 95.89
12/16/2013 96.70 96.19
1/16/2014 96.75 96.46
2/15/2014 96.80 96.68
3/16/2014 96.85 96.65
4/16/2014 96.89 96.54
5/16/2014 96.94 96.47
6/16/2014 96.99 96.43
7/16/2014 97.03 96.50
8/16/2014 97.08 96.70
9/16/2014 97.13 96.92
10/16/2014 97.18 97.21
11/16/2014 97.22 97.38
12/16/2014 97.27 97.66
1/16/2015 97.31 97.83
2/15/2015 97.36 97.91
3/16/2015 97.40 97.97
4/16/2015 97.45 98.08
5/16/2015 97.50 98.20
6/16/2015 97.55 98.32
7/16/2015 97.60 98.44
8/16/2015 97.65 98.61
9/16/2015 97.70 98.69
10/16/2015 97.75 98.88
11/16/2015 97.79 99.10
12/16/2015 97.84 99.29
1/16/2016 97.89 99.41
2/15/2016 97.93 99.50
3/16/2016 97.98 99.60
4/16/2016 98.03 99.66
5/16/2016 98.07 99.69
6/16/2016 98.12 99.75
7/16/2016 98.17 99.87
8/16/2016 98.22 100.04
9/16/2016 98.26 100.25
10/16/2016 98.31 100.40
11/16/2016 98.37 100.61
12/16/2016 98.42 100.79
1/16/2017 98.47 100.98
2/15/2017 98.52 101.10
3/16/2017 98.57 101.23
4/16/2017 98.62 101.38
5/16/2017 98.66 101.48
6/16/2017 98.71 101.66
7/16/2017 98.76 101.92
8/16/2017 98.81 102.10
9/16/2017 98.85 102.44
10/16/2017 98.90 102.70
11/16/2017 98.95 102.95
12/16/2017 99.00 103.14
1/16/2018 99.05 103.36
2/15/2018 99.10 103.66
3/16/2018 99.16 103.92
4/16/2018 99.21 104.02
5/16/2018 99.26 104.11
6/16/2018 99.31 104.15
7/16/2018 99.36 104.12
8/16/2018 99.41 104.06
9/16/2018 99.45 104.11
10/16/2018 99.50 104.14
11/16/2018 99.55 104.04
12/16/2018 99.60 104.04
1/16/2019 99.65 103.97
2/15/2019 99.69 103.89
3/16/2019 99.73 103.76
4/16/2019 99.78 103.64
5/16/2019 99.82 103.68
6/16/2019 99.87 103.58
7/16/2019 99.91 103.61
8/16/2019 99.96 103.72
9/16/2019 100.00 103.79

Note: Figure shows the log of the price-to-rent ratio. Long-run trend is estimated using data from 1978 to 2001 and includes the effect of carrying costs on the expected price-to-rent ratio. The last value of the trend is normalized to equal 100.

Source: For house prices, CoreLogic; for rent data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Return to text
1-20. Selected Local Housing Price-to-Rent Ratio Indexes

Jan. 2010 = 100

Date Phoenix Miami Los Angeles Median 90th Percentile 10th Percentile
1/16/2002 107.04 116.06 98.30 102.64 116.06 88.08
2/15/2002 107.63 116.97 98.90 103.16 116.97 87.75
3/16/2002 108.25 118.01 99.63 103.91 118.01 88.31
4/16/2002 108.70 118.85 100.50 104.57 118.85 89.59
5/16/2002 109.01 119.43 101.69 106.27 119.43 91.00
6/16/2002 109.12 120.43 102.83 106.43 120.43 91.80
7/16/2002 109.36 121.31 104.46 106.62 121.31 92.77
8/16/2002 109.64 122.63 105.57 106.79 122.63 92.30
9/16/2002 109.85 123.43 106.64 107.23 123.43 92.10
10/16/2002 110.24 123.83 107.50 107.51 123.83 92.76
11/16/2002 110.67 125.40 108.58 107.84 125.40 93.09
12/16/2002 111.08 126.79 109.55 108.48 126.79 93.42
1/16/2003 112.03 128.82 110.37 109.37 128.82 94.47
2/15/2003 112.31 128.96 111.24 109.97 128.96 94.25
3/16/2003 112.76 130.34 112.17 110.22 130.34 94.31
4/16/2003 113.32 131.57 113.15 110.25 131.57 94.00
5/16/2003 113.82 132.87 114.14 110.47 132.87 94.21
6/16/2003 114.22 133.91 115.38 111.31 133.91 94.78
7/16/2003 114.74 135.15 116.44 112.07 135.15 96.18
8/16/2003 115.28 136.08 118.33 112.41 136.08 96.96
9/16/2003 116.10 137.54 120.16 112.88 137.54 98.06
10/16/2003 117.15 138.45 121.92 114.08 138.45 98.99
11/16/2003 118.20 139.61 123.76 114.99 139.61 99.59
12/16/2003 119.20 140.96 125.73 115.39 140.96 100.29
1/16/2004 120.43 141.90 127.42 116.09 141.90 101.16
2/15/2004 121.38 143.56 129.64 116.73 143.56 101.79
3/16/2004 122.63 145.38 132.41 117.47 145.38 102.21
4/16/2004 124.06 145.71 135.12 118.06 147.63 102.90
5/16/2004 125.65 147.26 137.38 118.72 150.44 103.83
6/16/2004 127.44 149.34 139.42 120.51 154.01 104.95
7/16/2004 129.24 150.67 140.80 121.45 157.10 106.52
8/16/2004 131.38 153.19 142.02 120.96 159.00 106.50
9/16/2004 134.09 154.54 142.94 121.30 160.17 107.31
10/16/2004 137.09 156.87 143.92 122.67 161.47 108.27
11/16/2004 140.48 158.56 145.23 124.03 162.20 109.63
12/16/2004 144.46 160.66 146.43 124.74 164.09 111.09
1/16/2005 148.27 163.42 147.83 125.00 165.04 112.01
2/15/2005 152.19 166.42 150.01 125.71 166.42 111.72
3/16/2005 157.59 168.62 152.09 127.23 168.62 111.93
4/16/2005 162.42 171.71 153.65 128.59 171.71 112.19
5/16/2005 167.25 174.70 155.55 129.49 174.70 112.53
6/16/2005 172.74 177.93 157.39 130.01 177.93 112.49
7/16/2005 178.25 179.87 158.84 130.52 179.87 113.03
8/16/2005 182.90 183.55 160.58 131.39 183.55 113.60
9/16/2005 187.18 186.25 162.57 132.08 186.25 113.63
10/16/2005 190.13 189.19 165.04 133.05 189.19 113.44
11/16/2005 193.03 192.07 166.26 133.57 192.07 114.61
12/16/2005 195.45 195.37 168.37 134.24 194.16 114.43
1/16/2006 197.08 197.42 169.82 135.46 193.52 114.85
2/15/2006 198.35 200.42 171.26 135.63 192.55 115.48
3/16/2006 199.67 203.31 171.20 136.35 191.73 115.97
4/16/2006 199.63 204.06 170.51 136.67 193.04 116.35
5/16/2006 199.14 205.63 169.86 136.34 190.44 116.18
6/16/2006 197.52 205.38 169.05 136.46 188.29 115.85
7/16/2006 195.71 201.93 168.61 134.39 185.77 115.12
8/16/2006 193.66 204.36 168.09 135.38 182.97 114.90
9/16/2006 191.58 204.82 167.42 135.33 180.96 114.81
10/16/2006 189.52 204.51 166.30 135.76 178.60 114.63
11/16/2006 187.39 202.88 165.32 136.18 177.98 114.57
12/16/2006 185.39 200.79 163.37 136.38 176.21 114.59
1/16/2007 183.56 199.05 161.28 135.64 175.85 114.47
2/15/2007 180.90 200.06 160.31 137.04 174.12 113.72
3/16/2007 178.45 197.32 156.84 136.65 170.87 113.12
4/16/2007 176.15 196.17 154.88 136.11 167.21 112.77
5/16/2007 173.20 192.10 152.37 134.79 162.11 112.38
6/16/2007 170.11 187.78 150.01 133.81 160.45 111.75
7/16/2007 167.39 182.94 147.54 132.40 157.66 111.62
8/16/2007 164.57 181.44 145.65 131.04 153.57 111.41
9/16/2007 161.17 177.46 143.33 129.49 150.03 110.97
10/16/2007 157.33 173.29 140.44 127.65 147.60 110.18
11/16/2007 153.05 169.38 136.84 125.92 144.08 109.37
12/16/2007 149.30 164.98 133.59 124.27 142.01 107.93
1/16/2008 145.79 159.92 131.21 122.05 137.57 107.40
2/15/2008 142.65 154.87 126.79 120.48 134.82 106.53
3/16/2008 138.29 148.23 123.79 117.85 133.37 106.15
4/16/2008 134.04 141.28 121.10 116.09 131.87 105.00
5/16/2008 130.53 135.21 117.86 115.38 130.23 104.80
6/16/2008 127.13 131.58 115.06 113.43 127.26 104.33
7/16/2008 123.52 129.00 111.52 111.51 125.15 103.44
8/16/2008 120.28 124.63 109.04 109.38 121.91 102.82
9/16/2008 116.84 120.87 106.34 108.08 119.81 101.62
10/16/2008 113.85 116.36 103.81 105.96 116.15 100.44
11/16/2008 110.83 113.38 101.98 104.25 113.38 99.76
12/16/2008 107.51 109.59 99.74 102.51 110.34 98.58
1/16/2009 104.50 108.01 98.73 102.48 108.25 97.57
2/15/2009 102.06 104.30 97.42 102.09 106.90 97.20
3/16/2009 99.40 102.02 96.22 100.92 105.33 95.98
4/16/2009 98.20 100.33 95.21 100.67 104.17 94.69
5/16/2009 97.85 98.67 94.48 99.62 103.25 94.72
6/16/2009 97.60 97.99 94.94 99.33 102.45 95.53
7/16/2009 97.54 98.14 96.34 99.80 101.74 96.34
8/16/2009 97.62 97.88 96.20 98.63 101.46 96.10
9/16/2009 97.37 98.72 96.73 98.79 101.09 96.54
10/16/2009 98.29 99.32 97.33 99.51 100.65 97.33
11/16/2009 99.34 100.21 98.02 100.21 100.82 98.02
12/16/2009 100.12 100.02 99.11 100.02 100.77 98.95
1/16/2010 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
2/15/2010 99.98 98.45 99.10 99.28 100.01 98.42
3/16/2010 100.45 98.38 99.28 99.32 100.33 98.13
4/16/2010 100.58 98.10 99.04 99.27 100.23 98.10
5/16/2010 100.31 97.61 99.49 99.30 100.54 97.61
6/16/2010 99.82 97.55 98.96 98.96 100.61 97.28
7/16/2010 99.35 95.96 99.00 98.71 100.99 95.96
8/16/2010 98.38 94.26 97.92 97.92 100.11 94.26
9/16/2010 97.33 92.05 97.61 97.28 99.93 93.42
10/16/2010 97.11 91.47 97.15 96.53 99.65 92.35
11/16/2010 96.54 90.39 96.89 96.28 98.88 91.68
12/16/2010 95.99 90.69 96.65 96.44 98.73 90.69
1/16/2011 95.91 90.69 96.41 95.53 98.49 90.69
2/15/2011 94.80 90.50 95.86 94.88 98.27 90.50
3/16/2011 93.90 90.63 95.43 94.13 98.08 90.11
4/16/2011 92.91 91.50 95.45 94.38 98.16 90.13
5/16/2011 91.83 92.38 95.10 93.68 98.15 89.67
6/16/2011 91.04 93.10 95.03 93.81 98.12 89.66
7/16/2011 90.23 94.82 95.20 93.92 98.09 89.42
8/16/2011 90.31 95.06 94.21 94.09 97.81 89.57
9/16/2011 90.71 95.71 93.84 93.65 97.61 89.73
10/16/2011 91.32 96.10 93.54 93.54 97.33 88.10
11/16/2011 92.09 96.53 93.39 93.39 97.39 87.78
12/16/2011 93.25 97.59 93.16 93.16 97.59 87.21
1/16/2012 94.12 98.65 92.93 92.97 97.69 86.54
2/15/2012 95.40 99.03 92.69 93.35 97.63 86.51
3/16/2012 97.08 100.10 92.77 93.37 97.87 86.76
4/16/2012 99.03 100.48 93.84 93.98 98.38 86.59
5/16/2012 100.89 101.08 94.62 94.61 98.73 86.73
6/16/2012 102.64 102.11 95.21 95.21 99.14 86.67
7/16/2012 104.25 103.18 95.65 95.65 98.91 86.91
8/16/2012 105.47 104.87 96.63 96.04 99.56 86.59
9/16/2012 106.46 104.81 97.40 96.57 99.90 87.09
10/16/2012 107.54 105.00 98.40 97.08 101.20 86.84
11/16/2012 108.35 106.67 99.44 97.71 101.67 87.44
12/16/2012 109.03 107.10 100.83 98.81 102.99 87.51
1/16/2013 110.10 108.90 102.03 99.15 103.66 87.17
2/15/2013 111.09 110.78 103.54 99.68 104.70 87.00
3/16/2013 111.92 112.19 105.09 100.42 106.69 87.66
4/16/2013 112.67 113.78 106.63 100.60 108.05 88.28
5/16/2013 113.53 114.76 107.58 101.20 109.27 89.09
6/16/2013 114.30 115.28 108.86 101.59 109.71 89.57
7/16/2013 115.23 116.13 110.46 102.31 110.93 90.24
8/16/2013 116.14 118.59 111.53 102.98 111.53 90.50
9/16/2013 116.72 117.86 112.26 103.73 112.44 90.28
10/16/2013 117.20 118.58 113.15 103.96 113.15 90.24
11/16/2013 117.49 118.85 113.89 104.21 113.90 90.18
12/16/2013 117.75 119.16 114.36 104.32 115.23 90.36
1/16/2014 117.87 119.11 115.18 104.55 115.77 90.95
2/15/2014 117.85 119.48 115.80 103.99 117.05 90.98
3/16/2014 117.90 120.14 116.12 103.74 116.84 90.80
4/16/2014 117.70 121.08 116.23 104.05 118.06 90.93
5/16/2014 117.57 121.34 116.52 104.10 117.97 90.90
6/16/2014 117.42 121.63 116.89 104.07 117.64 91.12
7/16/2014 117.41 121.04 116.99 104.12 118.59 91.18
8/16/2014 117.38 121.20 117.42 104.09 118.92 91.07
9/16/2014 117.45 121.51 117.85 103.76 119.27 90.98
10/16/2014 117.63 122.77 118.05 104.22 120.28 91.35
11/16/2014 117.86 121.84 118.17 104.67 120.78 91.20
12/16/2014 118.15 121.92 118.48 104.18 121.83 91.56
1/16/2015 118.47 122.08 119.16 104.05 121.98 90.42
2/15/2015 118.71 122.26 119.82 104.40 122.26 89.64
3/16/2015 118.87 121.22 119.75 105.23 123.19 89.89
4/16/2015 119.10 122.03 119.69 105.71 123.67 90.13
5/16/2015 119.26 123.24 119.96 106.31 123.47 90.54
6/16/2015 119.46 123.68 120.18 106.89 124.09 90.94
7/16/2015 119.62 123.72 120.34 106.46 123.78 91.45
8/16/2015 119.64 123.26 120.63 107.23 124.55 91.68
9/16/2015 119.76 124.43 121.04 106.91 124.75 91.51
10/16/2015 119.85 124.73 121.66 106.61 125.02 92.02
11/16/2015 119.87 125.28 122.10 106.41 125.28 91.94
12/16/2015 119.96 125.13 122.22 106.43 125.13 92.24
1/16/2016 119.93 125.20 122.16 106.24 125.20 92.58
2/15/2016 119.86 126.25 122.58 106.96 126.25 92.72
3/16/2016 119.85 125.87 122.66 106.16 125.87 92.67
4/16/2016 119.86 125.79 123.11 106.53 125.79 92.63
5/16/2016 119.77 125.40 123.26 106.84 125.40 92.83
6/16/2016 119.85 125.47 123.31 107.23 125.47 92.98
7/16/2016 120.12 124.58 122.96 107.62 124.58 93.22
8/16/2016 119.92 125.27 123.39 108.04 125.27 92.80
9/16/2016 119.88 125.63 123.77 108.36 125.63 93.12
10/16/2016 119.68 125.69 123.92 108.88 125.69 93.16
11/16/2016 119.68 126.05 124.08 109.40 126.05 93.75
12/16/2016 119.92 126.09 124.44 109.66 126.09 93.99
1/16/2017 120.27 126.64 124.33 110.18 126.64 94.29
2/15/2017 120.30 126.40 124.27 110.86 126.40 94.36
3/16/2017 120.38 126.11 124.60 111.68 126.11 94.52
4/16/2017 120.55 126.03 124.71 111.99 126.03 94.81
5/16/2017 120.62 126.07 124.96 111.89 126.07 94.50
6/16/2017 120.99 125.99 125.19 112.05 125.99 94.32
7/16/2017 121.95 126.42 125.43 112.45 126.42 94.37
8/16/2017 121.84 126.82 125.75 112.84 126.82 94.27
9/16/2017 122.23 126.92 126.08 113.13 126.92 94.85
10/16/2017 122.53 127.31 126.67 113.30 127.31 95.25
11/16/2017 122.82 126.62 127.26 113.63 128.72 95.51
12/16/2017 123.44 127.09 127.74 114.16 129.05 95.52
1/16/2018 121.48 127.35 127.75 114.32 129.37 95.26
2/15/2018 122.94 127.51 128.83 115.00 129.92 96.42
3/16/2018 123.03 128.62 128.98 115.07 129.48 97.07
4/16/2018 123.05 129.11 128.71 115.18 130.15 96.02
5/16/2018 123.43 128.44 128.37 115.25 129.91 95.97
6/16/2018 123.47 127.92 128.36 115.65 129.88 95.97
7/16/2018 123.08 128.09 128.36 114.89 129.49 95.89
8/16/2018 123.79 128.03 128.51 114.74 128.70 96.11
9/16/2018 123.91 128.16 128.31 114.86 129.44 96.25
10/16/2018 124.28 128.15 127.99 115.79 129.45 95.83
11/16/2018 124.70 128.64 127.41 115.35 128.64 95.75
12/16/2018 124.98 128.88 126.97 114.84 128.88 95.68
1/16/2019 123.83 127.44 126.21 114.77 127.44 95.24
2/15/2019 124.52 127.28 126.31 114.21 127.28 95.44
3/16/2019 124.51 126.98 125.29 114.46 126.98 95.71
4/16/2019 124.42 126.14 125.27 114.51 126.20 96.25
5/16/2019 124.26 125.49 125.32 114.69 126.80 96.50
6/16/2019 124.07 126.21 125.03 114.57 127.32 96.45
7/16/2019 122.28 127.74 124.66 114.69 127.81 95.95
8/16/2019 123.39 127.41 124.53 114.22 127.86 96.41
9/16/2019 123.31 127.44 124.43 114.11 127.44 96.33
10/16/2019 123.34 127.67 124.29 114.31 127.67 96.30
11/16/2019 123.20 128.05 124.56 114.69 128.05 96.23
12/16/2019 123.34 128.60 124.79 115.20 128.60 95.95
1/16/2020 124.14 129.81 125.96 115.76 129.81 96.13
2/15/2020 124.74 129.46 125.44 115.14 129.46 95.84

Note: Seasonally adjusted. The data for Phoenix start in 2002. Monthly rent values for Phoenix are interpolated from semiannual numbers. Percentiles are based on 19 metropolitan statistical areas.

Source: For house prices, CoreLogic Real Estate Data; for rent data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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A. Dealers’ and Institutions’ Liquidity Provisions

Figure A: This is a diagramed figure titled Dealers’ and Institutions’ Liquidity Provision. The far left label of the diagram is Funding Liquidity: Secured Credit. It shows the organization and flow between Dealers, Leveraged Fund, and Other asset managers leading to Financial Markets on the far right of the diagram, including black arrows pointing in the direction from right to left. The intermediate variables of the flow chart, from top to bottom, are labeled Direct Liquidity Provision: Market making, Indirect Liquidity Provision: Arbitrage and other strategic trading models, and Indirect Liquidity Provision: Institutional Investment Strategies. There is a variable labeled Funding Liquidity: Secured between Dealers and Leveraged Funds with an orange arrow showing the connection between the right side variables.

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B. Net Positions in Treasury and Corporate Securities

Figure B: This chart is titled “Net Positions in Treasury and Corporate Securities.” The chart measures Treasury and Corporate securities. The x-axis ranges from 2001 to 2020. Treasury securities are represented by a solid blue line. They are represented on the right side y-axis and measured in billions of dollars. It ranges from -200 to 400. The line begins at 0 in 2001 and decreases to -150 by 2007. It gradually increases to 100 by 2010. It sees fluctuations from 2010 to 2016. In 2016 it begins to increase to end at a high of right above 200 in 2020 Q1. Corporate securities are measured by a solid green line. They are measured in billions of dollars by the left side y-axis. It ranges from 0 to 350. The line begins right below 50 in 2001. There is then an increase to its peak of around 260 in 2008. It then declines to 100 in one year in 2009. It then slowly decreases to end around 25 in 2020 Q1.

Note: Quarterly average positions are based on weekly reports of primary dealers. Treasury securities exclude Treasury inflation-protected securities. Corporate securities include non-agency mortgage backed securities.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR 2004A, Weekly Report of Dealer Positions.

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C. U.S. Treasury Dealer Inventory and Indicative Bid-Ask Spreads

Figure C: This chart is titled “Treasury Bid-Ask Spreads and Dealer Inventory.” The chart has 4 variables that measures bid-ask spreads for on the run, first off the run, second off the run, and total treasury inventory. They are represented by red, blue, green, and black lines respectively. The 3 bid-ask spread data variables are measured in Cents per $100 on the left y-axis. It ranges from 0 to 70. The Treasury inventory is measured in Billions of dollars by the right side y-axis. It ranges from 160 to 280. The data are daily. The x-axis measures January to April of 2020. All three bid ask spread lines begin roughly around 0 and stay that way until March. The green line spikes to a peak of 50 in March and ends around 15 in April. The blue line peaks to around 30 in March and ends around 10 in April. The red line jumps to close to 10 in March and ends around 0 again in April. The black line begins around 180. It jumps to a peak of around 245 in March and ends right below 200 in April.

Note: Non-hypothecated Treasury repo serves as a proxy for dealer Treasury inventory.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of New York; Federal Reserve Board, Form FR 2052a, Complex Institution Liquidity Monitoring Report.

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2-1. Private Nonfinancial-Sector Credit-to-GDP Ratio

Ratio

Period Private Nonfinancial-Sector Credit-to-GDP Ratio
1980:Q1 0.98
1980:Q2 0.99
1980:Q3 0.98
1980:Q4 0.97
1981:Q1 0.94
1981:Q2 0.96
1981:Q3 0.96
1981:Q4 0.97
1982:Q1 0.99
1982:Q2 0.99
1982:Q3 1.00
1982:Q4 1.00
1983:Q1 1.00
1983:Q2 0.99
1983:Q3 0.99
1983:Q4 0.99
1984:Q1 0.99
1984:Q2 1.00
1984:Q3 1.02
1984:Q4 1.04
1985:Q1 1.05
1985:Q2 1.07
1985:Q3 1.08
1985:Q4 1.10
1986:Q1 1.11
1986:Q2 1.13
1986:Q3 1.15
1986:Q4 1.17
1987:Q1 1.18
1987:Q2 1.18
1987:Q3 1.19
1987:Q4 1.18
1988:Q1 1.19
1988:Q2 1.20
1988:Q3 1.20
1988:Q4 1.20
1989:Q1 1.20
1989:Q2 1.21
1989:Q3 1.21
1989:Q4 1.22
1990:Q1 1.22
1990:Q2 1.22
1990:Q3 1.22
1990:Q4 1.23
1991:Q1 1.23
1991:Q2 1.22
1991:Q3 1.21
1991:Q4 1.20
1992:Q1 1.19
1992:Q2 1.18
1992:Q3 1.17
1992:Q4 1.15
1993:Q1 1.15
1993:Q2 1.16
1993:Q3 1.16
1993:Q4 1.15
1994:Q1 1.15
1994:Q2 1.15
1994:Q3 1.15
1994:Q4 1.16
1995:Q1 1.16
1995:Q2 1.18
1995:Q3 1.18
1995:Q4 1.18
1996:Q1 1.19
1996:Q2 1.18
1996:Q3 1.19
1996:Q4 1.18
1997:Q1 1.19
1997:Q2 1.19
1997:Q3 1.19
1997:Q4 1.20
1998:Q1 1.21
1998:Q2 1.23
1998:Q3 1.23
1998:Q4 1.24
1999:Q1 1.25
1999:Q2 1.27
1999:Q3 1.28
1999:Q4 1.28
2000:Q1 1.30
2000:Q2 1.30
2000:Q3 1.32
2000:Q4 1.32
2001:Q1 1.33
2001:Q2 1.34
2001:Q3 1.37
2001:Q4 1.38
2002:Q1 1.39
2002:Q2 1.39
2002:Q3 1.40
2002:Q4 1.41
2003:Q1 1.42
2003:Q2 1.44
2003:Q3 1.43
2003:Q4 1.43
2004:Q1 1.44
2004:Q2 1.45
2004:Q3 1.46
2004:Q4 1.47
2005:Q1 1.47
2005:Q2 1.49
2005:Q3 1.50
2005:Q4 1.51
2006:Q1 1.53
2006:Q2 1.55
2006:Q3 1.57
2006:Q4 1.59
2007:Q1 1.60
2007:Q2 1.62
2007:Q3 1.64
2007:Q4 1.66
2008:Q1 1.69
2008:Q2 1.68
2008:Q3 1.69
2008:Q4 1.70
2009:Q1 1.71
2009:Q2 1.71
2009:Q3 1.69
2009:Q4 1.65
2010:Q1 1.63
2010:Q2 1.60
2010:Q3 1.58
2010:Q4 1.56
2011:Q1 1.56
2011:Q2 1.54
2011:Q3 1.53
2011:Q4 1.51
2012:Q1 1.49
2012:Q2 1.49
2012:Q3 1.49
2012:Q4 1.49
2013:Q1 1.48
2013:Q2 1.48
2013:Q3 1.47
2013:Q4 1.46
2014:Q1 1.47
2014:Q2 1.46
2014:Q3 1.45
2014:Q4 1.45
2015:Q1 1.46
2015:Q2 1.46
2015:Q3 1.46
2015:Q4 1.47
2016:Q1 1.48
2016:Q2 1.48
2016:Q3 1.48
2016:Q4 1.48
2017:Q1 1.48
2017:Q2 1.49
2017:Q3 1.48
2017:Q4 1.48
2018:Q1 1.48
2018:Q2 1.48
2018:Q3 1.48
2018:Q4 1.48
2019:Q1 1.48
2019:Q2 1.48
2019:Q3 1.48
2019:Q4 1.48

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990- March 1991, March 2001-November 2001 and December 2007-June 2009. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, national income and product accounts, and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

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2-2. Nonfinancial Business- and Household-Sector Credit-to-GDP Ratios

Ratio

Period Nonfinancial Business Household
1980:Q1 0.50 0.48
1980:Q2 0.50 0.48
1980:Q3 0.50 0.48
1980:Q4 0.49 0.48
1981:Q1 0.48 0.46
1981:Q2 0.50 0.47
1981:Q3 0.50 0.46
1981:Q4 0.51 0.47
1982:Q1 0.52 0.47
1982:Q2 0.52 0.47
1982:Q3 0.53 0.47
1982:Q4 0.53 0.47
1983:Q1 0.53 0.46
1983:Q2 0.53 0.46
1983:Q3 0.53 0.46
1983:Q4 0.53 0.46
1984:Q1 0.53 0.46
1984:Q2 0.54 0.47
1984:Q3 0.55 0.47
1984:Q4 0.56 0.48
1985:Q1 0.56 0.49
1985:Q2 0.57 0.50
1985:Q3 0.57 0.51
1985:Q4 0.58 0.52
1986:Q1 0.58 0.53
1986:Q2 0.60 0.54
1986:Q3 0.60 0.55
1986:Q4 0.62 0.56
1987:Q1 0.62 0.56
1987:Q2 0.62 0.56
1987:Q3 0.62 0.57
1987:Q4 0.62 0.56
1988:Q1 0.63 0.57
1988:Q2 0.63 0.57
1988:Q3 0.63 0.57
1988:Q4 0.63 0.57
1989:Q1 0.63 0.57
1989:Q2 0.63 0.57
1989:Q3 0.63 0.58
1989:Q4 0.63 0.59
1990:Q1 0.63 0.59
1990:Q2 0.63 0.59
1990:Q3 0.63 0.59
1990:Q4 0.63 0.60
1991:Q1 0.62 0.61
1991:Q2 0.61 0.61
1991:Q3 0.60 0.61
1991:Q4 0.59 0.61
1992:Q1 0.58 0.61
1992:Q2 0.57 0.61
1992:Q3 0.56 0.60
1992:Q4 0.55 0.60
1993:Q1 0.55 0.61
1993:Q2 0.55 0.61
1993:Q3 0.55 0.61
1993:Q4 0.54 0.61
1994:Q1 0.54 0.61
1994:Q2 0.54 0.61
1994:Q3 0.54 0.61
1994:Q4 0.54 0.62
1995:Q1 0.54 0.62
1995:Q2 0.55 0.63
1995:Q3 0.55 0.63
1995:Q4 0.55 0.63
1996:Q1 0.55 0.64
1996:Q2 0.55 0.64
1996:Q3 0.55 0.64
1996:Q4 0.54 0.64
1997:Q1 0.55 0.64
1997:Q2 0.55 0.64
1997:Q3 0.55 0.64
1997:Q4 0.56 0.64
1998:Q1 0.57 0.65
1998:Q2 0.58 0.65
1998:Q3 0.58 0.65
1998:Q4 0.59 0.65
1999:Q1 0.59 0.66
1999:Q2 0.60 0.67
1999:Q3 0.61 0.67
1999:Q4 0.61 0.67
2000:Q1 0.62 0.68
2000:Q2 0.62 0.68
2000:Q3 0.63 0.69
2000:Q4 0.63 0.69
2001:Q1 0.63 0.70
2001:Q2 0.63 0.71
2001:Q3 0.64 0.73
2001:Q4 0.64 0.74
2002:Q1 0.64 0.75
2002:Q2 0.64 0.75
2002:Q3 0.63 0.76
2002:Q4 0.63 0.78
2003:Q1 0.63 0.79
2003:Q2 0.62 0.81
2003:Q3 0.61 0.82
2003:Q4 0.60 0.82
2004:Q1 0.61 0.84
2004:Q2 0.60 0.85
2004:Q3 0.60 0.85
2004:Q4 0.60 0.87
2005:Q1 0.60 0.87
2005:Q2 0.61 0.89
2005:Q3 0.61 0.89
2005:Q4 0.61 0.90
2006:Q1 0.61 0.91
2006:Q2 0.62 0.93
2006:Q3 0.63 0.94
2006:Q4 0.64 0.95
2007:Q1 0.65 0.95
2007:Q2 0.66 0.96
2007:Q3 0.68 0.97
2007:Q4 0.69 0.97
2008:Q1 0.70 0.98
2008:Q2 0.71 0.97
2008:Q3 0.72 0.97
2008:Q4 0.73 0.97
2009:Q1 0.74 0.98
2009:Q2 0.73 0.98
2009:Q3 0.72 0.97
2009:Q4 0.69 0.95
2010:Q1 0.69 0.94
2010:Q2 0.67 0.93
2010:Q3 0.67 0.91
2010:Q4 0.66 0.90
2011:Q1 0.66 0.90
2011:Q2 0.65 0.88
2011:Q3 0.65 0.87
2011:Q4 0.65 0.86
2012:Q1 0.65 0.85
2012:Q2 0.65 0.84
2012:Q3 0.65 0.83
2012:Q4 0.66 0.83
2013:Q1 0.65 0.82
2013:Q2 0.66 0.82
2013:Q3 0.66 0.81
2013:Q4 0.66 0.80
2014:Q1 0.67 0.80
2014:Q2 0.66 0.79
2014:Q3 0.66 0.79
2014:Q4 0.67 0.78
2015:Q1 0.68 0.78
2015:Q2 0.68 0.78
2015:Q3 0.69 0.77
2015:Q4 0.70 0.77
2016:Q1 0.71 0.77
2016:Q2 0.71 0.77
2016:Q3 0.71 0.77
2016:Q4 0.71 0.77
2017:Q1 0.71 0.77
2017:Q2 0.72 0.77
2017:Q3 0.72 0.76
2017:Q4 0.72 0.76
2018:Q1 0.72 0.76
2018:Q2 0.73 0.75
2018:Q3 0.73 0.75
2018:Q4 0.73 0.75
2019:Q1 0.74 0.74
2019:Q2 0.74 0.74
2019:Q3 0.74 0.74
2019:Q4 0.74 0.74

Note: The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990- March 1991, March 2001-November 2001 and December 2007-June 2009. GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, national income and product accounts, and Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

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2-3. Gross Balance Sheet Leverage of Public Nonfinancial Businesses

Percent

Period 75th percentile firms All Firms
2000:Q1 30.38 48.26
2000:Q2 29.64 47.96
2000:Q3 29.04 47.56
2000:Q4 29.22 47.01
2001:Q1 29.23 47.54
2001:Q2 29.41 47.56
2001:Q3 29.39 47.36
2001:Q4 30.02 47.22
2002:Q1 30.65 46.12
2002:Q2 29.70 44.46
2002:Q3 29.48 44.03
2002:Q4 29.21 44.41
2003:Q1 29.00 42.84
2003:Q2 28.18 42.23
2003:Q3 27.82 41.74
2003:Q4 26.76 41.53
2004:Q1 26.36 39.49
2004:Q2 25.75 39.04
2004:Q3 25.43 38.74
2004:Q4 25.18 39.18
2005:Q1 24.97 37.84
2005:Q2 24.83 37.84
2005:Q3 24.15 37.44
2005:Q4 24.20 38.31
2006:Q1 24.48 37.42
2006:Q2 24.37 37.79
2006:Q3 24.39 37.70
2006:Q4 24.72 38.53
2007:Q1 24.95 38.04
2007:Q2 25.18 38.63
2007:Q3 25.58 38.67
2007:Q4 25.84 38.91
2008:Q1 26.06 39.07
2008:Q2 26.18 38.77
2008:Q3 27.17 39.97
2008:Q4 28.76 42.57
2009:Q1 28.70 41.54
2009:Q2 27.95 39.91
2009:Q3 26.97 38.47
2009:Q4 26.77 38.74
2010:Q1 26.36 36.97
2010:Q2 26.24 36.65
2010:Q3 26.24 36.26
2010:Q4 26.03 36.95
2011:Q1 25.79 36.11
2011:Q2 25.85 35.61
2011:Q3 26.18 36.36
2011:Q4 26.10 37.73
2012:Q1 26.02 36.95
2012:Q2 26.59 37.11
2012:Q3 26.71 37.47
2012:Q4 27.09 38.76
2013:Q1 26.93 38.01
2013:Q2 27.36 38.22
2013:Q3 27.67 38.51
2013:Q4 27.93 40.10
2014:Q1 28.52 39.22
2014:Q2 28.46 40.27
2014:Q3 28.62 40.81
2014:Q4 29.21 42.14
2015:Q1 30.07 42.36
2015:Q2 30.60 42.08
2015:Q3 31.12 42.51
2015:Q4 32.07 43.84
2016:Q1 32.68 43.78
2016:Q2 32.90 43.68
2016:Q3 32.98 42.97
2016:Q4 32.84 43.14
2017:Q1 33.11 42.69
2017:Q2 33.49 42.19
2017:Q3 33.32 42.12
2017:Q4 32.98 42.00
2018:Q1 33.27 41.95
2018:Q2 33.06 42.11
2018:Q3 32.78 41.59
2018:Q4 33.13 42.18
2019:Q1 35.26 46.30
2019:Q2 35.46 46.56
2019:Q3 35.52 47.25
2019:Q4 35.39 46.44

Gross leverage is an asset-weighted average of the ratio of firms' book value of total debt to book value of total assets. The 75th percentile is calculated from a sample of the 2,500 largest firms by assets. The dashed line shows the data after the structural break in the series due to the 2019 compliance deadline for Financial Accounting Standards Board rule Accounting Standards Update 2016–02.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

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2-4. Net Issuance of Risky Business Debt

Billions of dollars

Period High-yield and unrated bonds Institutional leveraged loans
2004:Q2 16.5 15.6
2004:Q3 -20.8 6.3
2004:Q4 -2.5 20.9
2005:Q1 -7.4 10.5
2005:Q2 4.0 16.9
2005:Q3 -15.3 7.3
2005:Q4 -6.9 20.6
2006:Q1 0.6 27.2
2006:Q2 -7.8 40.1
2006:Q3 5.0 17.9
2006:Q4 -3.2 66.3
2007:Q1 27.0 40.7
2007:Q2 1.1 54.3
2007:Q3 20.8 25.7
2007:Q4 -10.7 36.1
2008:Q1 -7.2 2.2
2008:Q2 -16.8 26.2
2008:Q3 -1.5 6.6
2008:Q4 3.3 4.8
2009:Q1 -34.4 -11.8
2009:Q2 -14.4 -15.5
2009:Q3 2.6 -13.3
2009:Q4 -12.7 -25.0
2010:Q1 -16.7 -17.8
2010:Q2 10.8 -9.7
2010:Q3 3.4 11.8
2010:Q4 22.9 -15.3
2011:Q1 12.3 -4.5
2011:Q2 5.3 25.5
2011:Q3 9.4 -5.5
2011:Q4 -6.9 3.9
2012:Q1 1.3 -6.5
2012:Q2 30.5 18.4
2012:Q3 -17.3 -4.4
2012:Q4 29.5 26.0
2013:Q1 25.1 11.3
2013:Q2 31.6 31.3
2013:Q3 6.6 45.2
2013:Q4 33.1 43.5
2014:Q1 21.7 29.4
2014:Q2 23.4 45.6
2014:Q3 10.1 48.4
2014:Q4 29.5 26.2
2015:Q1 6.4 6.5
2015:Q2 50.9 -3.1
2015:Q3 4.8 8.6
2015:Q4 2.9 28.8
2016:Q1 -14.5 9.1
2016:Q2 6.2 5.0
2016:Q3 2.5 -12.9
2016:Q4 -6.4 7.2
2017:Q1 -22.0 -4.2
2017:Q2 12.1 49.0
2017:Q3 -9.8 13.0
2017:Q4 4.3 16.8
2018:Q1 -6.5 34.3
2018:Q2 2.5 54.9
2018:Q3 -9.5 45.1
2018:Q4 -5.3 57.6
2019:Q1 -21.4 33.7
2019:Q2 18.8 16.2
2019:Q3 12.1 -16.2
2019:Q4 5.3 13.1
1/1/2020 34.5 -25.6
2/1/2020 22.9 2.6
3/1/2020 -44.7 32.3

Institutional leveraged loans generally exclude loan commitments held by banks. Key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Mergent, Fixed Income Securities Database (FISD); S&P Global, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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2-5. Interest Coverage Ratios for Public Nonfinancial Businesses

Ratio

Period Median 25th percentile
2000:Q1 2.36 0.89
2000:Q2 2.32 0.86
2000:Q3 2.26 0.84
2000:Q4 2.20 0.79
2001:Q1 2.12 0.67
2001:Q2 2.07 0.59
2001:Q3 1.88 0.38
2001:Q4 1.78 0.28
2002:Q1 1.78 0.29
2002:Q2 1.74 0.26
2002:Q3 1.84 0.37
2002:Q4 2.00 0.53
2003:Q1 2.11 0.60
2003:Q2 2.12 0.56
2003:Q3 2.19 0.58
2003:Q4 2.30 0.66
2004:Q1 2.54 0.74
2004:Q2 2.84 0.88
2004:Q3 3.02 1.00
2004:Q4 2.97 0.93
2005:Q1 3.01 0.98
2005:Q2 3.02 0.92
2005:Q3 3.07 0.90
2005:Q4 3.04 0.93
2006:Q1 3.07 0.93
2006:Q2 3.01 0.95
2006:Q3 2.97 0.89
2006:Q4 2.93 0.90
2007:Q1 2.93 0.89
2007:Q2 2.85 0.79
2007:Q3 2.71 0.79
2007:Q4 2.74 0.73
2008:Q1 2.79 0.77
2008:Q2 3.00 0.80
2008:Q3 2.96 0.81
2008:Q4 2.60 0.49
2009:Q1 2.67 0.39
2009:Q2 2.47 0.34
2009:Q3 2.33 0.21
2009:Q4 2.27 0.41
2010:Q1 2.59 0.70
2010:Q2 2.74 0.77
2010:Q3 2.93 0.95
2010:Q4 3.03 1.02
2011:Q1 3.19 1.09
2011:Q2 3.36 1.16
2011:Q3 3.51 1.24
2011:Q4 3.44 1.26
2012:Q1 3.38 1.24
2012:Q2 3.41 1.23
2012:Q3 3.28 1.03
2012:Q4 3.09 0.88
2013:Q1 3.18 0.93
2013:Q2 3.25 0.95
2013:Q3 3.26 0.94
2013:Q4 3.16 0.78
2014:Q1 3.21 0.73
2014:Q2 3.40 0.85
2014:Q3 3.46 0.84
2014:Q4 3.36 0.74
2015:Q1 3.34 0.67
2015:Q2 3.29 0.52
2015:Q3 3.30 0.51
2015:Q4 3.11 0.39
2016:Q1 2.93 0.26
2016:Q2 2.91 0.17
2016:Q3 2.94 0.23
2016:Q4 3.00 0.17
2017:Q1 3.03 0.35
2017:Q2 3.10 0.53
2017:Q3 3.05 0.53
2017:Q4 3.08 0.52
2018:Q1 3.05 0.51
2018:Q2 3.08 0.42
2018:Q3 3.17 0.46
2018:Q4 3.08 0.52
2019:Q1 3.02 0.57
2019:Q2 2.93 0.47
2019:Q3 2.82 0.38
2019:Q4 2.91 0.53

The interest coverage ratio is earning before interest and taxes over interest payments. Firms with leverage less than 5 percent and interest payments less than $500,000 are excluded.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on S&P Global, Compustat.

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2-6. Distribution of Large Institutional Leveraged Loan Volumes, by Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio

Percent

Period Debt multiples greater than or equal to 6x Debt multiples 5x-5.99x Debt multiples 4x-4.99x Debt multiples less than or equal to 4x
2001 2.7 10.1 26.2 61.1
2002 5.9 12.2 27.3 54.6
2003 6.7 11.5 29.3 52.6
2004 8.8 17.6 28.6 45.0
2005 8.0 25.1 25.1 41.8
2006 16.3 21.1 26.3 36.4
2007 27.7 17.5 23.7 31.2
2008 10.7 12.1 14.2 63.1
2009 17.7 11.5 17.7 53.1
2010 5.8 17.9 22.6 53.7
2011 14.4 19.2 22.6 43.8
2012 15.8 21.8 26.6 35.9
2013 16.4 23.1 29.0 31.5
2014 27.2 21.5 22.6 28.7
2015 18.9 26.5 24.8 29.9
2016 21.0 24.4 32.6 21.9
2017 22.0 27.6 27.6 22.7
2018 29.7 26.8 24.1 19.5
2019 33.3 23.4 24.0 19.3
2020:Q1 22.6 24.8 23.4 29.2

Note: Volumes are for large corporations with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) greater than $50 million and exclude existing tranches of add-ons and amendments as well as restatements with no new money.

Source: S&P Global, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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2-7. Default Rates of Leveraged Loans

Percent

Period Default Rate of Leveraged Loans
December 1998 1.51
January 1999 1.40
February 1999 0.62
March 1999 0.96
April 1999 0.91
May 1999 1.08
June 1999 1.51
July 1999 1.47
August 1999 2.59
September 1999 2.84
October 1999 2.80
November 1999 4.23
December 1999 4.17
January 2000 5.32
February 2000 5.64
March 2000 5.79
April 2000 7.39
May 2000 7.13
June 2000 7.50
July 2000 7.39
August 2000 6.66
September 2000 6.60
October 2000 6.74
November 2000 5.80
December 2000 6.57
January 2001 5.89
February 2001 5.65
March 2001 5.48
April 2001 4.78
May 2001 6.42
June 2001 6.28
July 2001 6.82
August 2001 6.80
September 2001 6.50
October 2001 6.72
November 2001 6.50
December 2001 6.30
January 2002 7.25
February 2002 7.25
March 2002 6.85
April 2002 6.95
May 2002 5.69
June 2002 7.41
July 2002 6.84
August 2002 6.78
September 2002 6.41
October 2002 6.59
November 2002 6.53
December 2002 6.01
January 2003 5.13
February 2003 5.01
March 2003 5.47
April 2003 5.26
May 2003 5.35
June 2003 2.62
July 2003 2.64
August 2003 2.67
September 2003 2.91
October 2003 2.30
November 2003 2.28
December 2003 2.25
January 2004 1.89
February 2004 1.61
March 2004 1.11
April 2004 0.94
May 2004 0.68
June 2004 0.94
July 2004 0.91
August 2004 0.88
September 2004 1.01
October 2004 1.02
November 2004 1.02
December 2004 1.01
January 2005 1.03
February 2005 1.37
March 2005 1.26
April 2005 1.48
May 2005 1.54
June 2005 1.29
July 2005 1.46
August 2005 1.43
September 2005 1.65
October 2005 2.56
November 2005 2.29
December 2005 3.02
January 2006 2.96
February 2006 2.89
March 2006 2.79
April 2006 2.47
May 2006 2.30
June 2006 2.28
July 2006 2.08
August 2006 2.08
September 2006 1.56
October 2006 0.99
November 2006 1.07
December 2006 0.48
January 2007 0.45
February 2007 0.24
March 2007 0.23
April 2007 0.22
May 2007 0.16
June 2007 0.15
July 2007 0.21
August 2007 0.21
September 2007 0.42
October 2007 0.33
November 2007 0.25
December 2007 0.24
January 2008 0.72
February 2008 0.94
March 2008 1.07
April 2008 1.30
May 2008 1.73
June 2008 1.70
July 2008 1.90
August 2008 2.03
September 2008 1.91
October 2008 1.97
November 2008 1.94
December 2008 3.75
January 2009 4.95
February 2009 5.25
March 2009 8.02
April 2009 8.03
May 2009 8.66
June 2009 9.15
July 2009 9.57
August 2009 9.68
September 2009 9.75
October 2009 10.71
November 2009 10.81
December 2009 9.61
January 2010 8.82
February 2010 8.59
March 2010 5.82
April 2010 5.65
May 2010 4.64
June 2010 4.02
July 2010 3.47
August 2010 3.57
September 2010 3.55
October 2010 2.28
November 2010 2.25
December 2010 1.87
January 2011 1.46
February 2011 1.27
March 2011 1.11
April 2011 0.95
May 2011 0.91
June 2011 0.91
July 2011 0.77
August 2011 0.33
September 2011 0.32
October 2011 0.32
November 2011 0.17
December 2011 0.17
January 2012 0.21
February 2012 0.21
March 2012 0.21
April 2012 0.56
May 2012 1.05
June 2012 1.04
July 2012 1.04
August 2012 1.07
September 2012 1.00
October 2012 1.06
November 2012 1.28
December 2012 1.27
January 2013 1.42
February 2013 1.40
March 2013 2.21
April 2013 1.91
May 2013 1.40
June 2013 1.37
July 2013 2.02
August 2013 2.16
September 2013 2.41
October 2013 2.31
November 2013 2.08
December 2013 2.11
January 2014 1.88
February 2014 1.86
March 2014 1.21
April 2014 4.64
May 2014 4.60
June 2014 4.41
July 2014 3.89
August 2014 3.61
September 2014 3.34
October 2014 3.28
November 2014 3.33
December 2014 3.24
January 2015 3.99
February 2015 3.92
March 2015 3.79
April 2015 1.26
May 2015 1.26
June 2015 1.24
July 2015 1.10
August 2015 1.30
September 2015 1.27
October 2015 1.27
November 2015 1.42
December 2015 1.50
January 2016 1.29
February 2016 1.41
March 2016 1.75
April 2016 1.69
May 2016 1.96
June 2016 1.97
July 2016 2.17
August 2016 1.98
September 2016 1.95
October 2016 1.95
November 2016 1.66
December 2016 1.58
January 2017 1.56
February 2017 1.41
March 2017 1.49
April 2017 1.43
May 2017 1.42
June 2017 1.54
July 2017 1.36
August 2017 1.36
September 2017 1.53
October 2017 1.51
November 2017 1.95
December 2017 2.05
January 2018 1.95
February 2018 2.00
March 2018 2.42
April 2018 2.37
May 2018 2.12
June 2018 1.98
July 2018 1.99
August 2018 1.99
September 2018 1.81
October 2018 1.92
November 2018 1.61
December 2018 1.63
January 2019 1.42
February 2019 1.62
March 2019 0.93
April 2019 1.01
May 2019 1.00
June 2019 1.34
July 2019 1.32
August 2019 1.29
September 2019 1.29
October 2019 1.43
November 2019 1.48
December 2019 1.39
January 2020 1.83
February 2020 1.83
March 2020 1.84

Note: The default rate is calculated as the amount in default over the past 12 months divided by the total outstanding volume at the beginning of the 12-month period. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001-November 2001 and December 2007-June 2009.

Source: S&P Global, Leveraged Commentary & Data.

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2-8. Total Household Loan Balances

Figure 2-8: This is a line chart titled “Total Household Loan Balances”. The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 1999 to 2019 (Q4). The y-axis measures billions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 9800. The data is quarterly. There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled 'Prime'; is designated by a black line; and ranges from about 3400 to 9250 billions of dollars. This variable rises from around 3400 to 9000 billions of dollars from 1999 to 2008 and then declines to 7400 billions of dollars in 2014. After 2014, this variable rises slowly until it reaches around 9600 billion again in 2019. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime' and is designated by a blue line. It ranges from around 2600 to around 3800 billions of dollars. The variable has a slight increase to around 3800 billions of dollars from 2002 to 2008 but is otherwise is stable at a little more than 2600 billions of dollars for most of the time period. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime'; is designated by the red line; and ranges from 1000 to around 3000 billions of dollars. There is a slight increase from a little more than 1000 billions of dollars in 1999 to around 1800 in 2007, and there is a steeper increase to around 3000 billions of dollars between 2007 and 2010. The variable then decreases and remains at around 1800 billions of dollars from 2014 to the end of the time period in 2019.

Note: Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score below 619; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. Student loan balances before 2004 are estimated using average growth from 2004 to 2007, by risk score. The data are converted to constant 2019 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

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2-9. Estimate of New Mortgage Volume to Households

Figure 2-9: This is a bar graph titled "Estimate of New Mortgage Volume to Households". The x-axis ranges from the years 2000 to 2019. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 1400, in billions of dollars (real). There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled 'Subprime' and is designated by the red bar. It ranges from around 100 to around 400 billions of dollars. It starts at a little more than 200 billions of dollars in 2000 and very slightly increases to around 400 billions of dollars between 2001 and 2006. Then it decreases more quickly to around 100 billions of dollars in 2009, and remains fairly unchanged until 2019. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime'; is designated by the blue bars; and ranges from 200 to around 900 billions of dollars. The variable starts at around 500 billions of dollars in 2000 and increases quickly, peaking at around 900 billion dollars in 2006 before steeply falling to around 300 billion dollars by 2009. Since then it has increased and stabilized around 400 billion dollars from 2016 to 2019. The third variable is labeled 'Prime'; is designated by the black bars; and ranges from around 600 to 1250 billions of dollars. The variable starts at around 600 billions of dollars in 2000 and steeply increases to a peak of around 1250 billions of dollars in 2004. The variable remains between 1100 and 1200 billion dollars from 2004 to 2007 before falling sharply from 2008 to 2012 to about 500 billion. The variable then builds back up to 800 billion in 2014. It then drops back to 700 billion in 2015 before climbing close to 900 billion in 2019.

Note: Year-over-year change in balances for the second quarter of each year among those households whose balance increased over this window. Near prime are those with an Equifax risk Score from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores were measured a year ago. The data are converted to constant 2019 dollars using the consumer price index. Key identifies bars in order from left to right.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

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2-10. Transition Rates into Mortgage Delinquency

Percent of previously current loans

Period Prime Nonprime FHA/VA
January 2000 1.11 3.19 4.16
February 2000 1.03 3.02 3.87
March 2000 0.99 2.94 3.75
April 2000 1.01 3.02 3.65
May 2000 1.03 3.04 3.62
June 2000 1.04 3.05 3.68
July 2000 1.02 2.95 3.71
August 2000 1.02 2.99 3.82
September 2000 1.05 3.03 3.91
October 2000 1.04 3.03 3.96
November 2000 1.04 3.05 3.90
December 2000 1.09 3.19 4.06
January 2001 1.08 3.14 2.87
February 2001 1.09 3.20 3.10
March 2001 1.04 3.09 3.22
April 2001 1.08 3.21 4.92
May 2001 1.12 3.22 4.94
June 2001 1.14 3.25 4.85
July 2001 1.12 3.22 4.57
August 2001 1.04 3.00 4.66
September 2001 1.15 3.18 4.69
October 2001 1.14 3.19 4.64
November 2001 1.18 3.36 4.65
December 2001 1.12 3.31 4.79
January 2002 1.11 3.27 4.74
February 2002 1.12 3.30 4.67
March 2002 1.11 3.34 4.40
April 2002 1.07 3.16 4.46
May 2002 1.03 3.11 4.58
June 2002 1.01 3.10 4.80
July 2002 1.03 3.29 4.81
August 2002 1.04 3.32 4.73
September 2002 1.02 3.23 4.62
October 2002 1.03 3.20 4.60
November 2002 1.08 3.32 4.60
December 2002 1.09 3.35 4.71
January 2003 1.10 3.40 4.77
February 2003 1.09 3.33 4.82
March 2003 1.12 3.40 4.67
April 2003 1.15 3.45 4.65
May 2003 1.17 3.53 4.55
June 2003 1.14 3.45 4.59
July 2003 1.10 3.41 4.47
August 2003 1.09 3.40 4.39
September 2003 1.03 3.28 4.31
October 2003 0.98 3.24 4.30
November 2003 1.01 3.45 4.22
December 2003 0.98 3.48 4.18
January 2004 0.99 3.56 4.12
February 2004 0.91 3.34 4.18
March 2004 0.91 3.33 4.19
April 2004 0.88 3.20 4.12
May 2004 0.92 3.38 4.06
June 2004 0.92 3.37 3.81
July 2004 0.89 3.24 3.73
August 2004 0.82 2.99 3.64
September 2004 0.82 3.08 3.66
October 2004 0.92 3.46 3.56
November 2004 0.91 3.39 3.50
December 2004 0.90 3.30 3.44
January 2005 0.85 3.11 3.38
February 2005 0.86 3.14 3.33
March 2005 0.88 3.18 3.39
April 2005 0.88 3.18 3.36
May 2005 0.86 3.20 3.37
June 2005 0.86 3.23 3.30
July 2005 0.89 3.32 3.32
August 2005 0.86 3.24 3.35
September 2005 0.90 3.26 3.44
October 2005 0.90 3.27 3.48
November 2005 0.94 3.37 3.43
December 2005 0.91 3.33 3.28
January 2006 0.85 3.14 3.24
February 2006 0.84 3.07 3.26
March 2006 0.80 2.98 3.34
April 2006 0.87 3.30 3.38
May 2006 0.85 3.29 3.48
June 2006 0.88 3.29 3.49
July 2006 0.85 3.05 3.55
August 2006 0.87 3.06 3.51
September 2006 0.91 3.10 3.51
October 2006 0.91 3.04 3.52
November 2006 0.94 3.02 3.55
December 2006 0.99 3.21 3.61
January 2007 0.98 3.07 3.70
February 2007 1.01 3.13 3.76
March 2007 1.00 2.95 3.89
April 2007 1.05 3.09 4.04
May 2007 1.05 3.03 4.18
June 2007 1.07 3.03 4.33
July 2007 1.08 2.97 4.36
August 2007 1.05 2.83 4.42
September 2007 1.13 2.97 4.53
October 2007 1.12 2.96 4.66
November 2007 1.15 3.05 4.82
December 2007 1.12 2.96 4.85
January 2008 1.15 3.01 4.96
February 2008 1.14 2.97 5.05
March 2008 1.17 3.13 5.19
April 2008 1.20 3.19 5.23
May 2008 1.24 3.20 5.12
June 2008 1.20 2.99 5.10
July 2008 1.18 2.92 5.15
August 2008 1.29 3.15 5.39
September 2008 1.30 3.16 5.55
October 2008 1.35 3.20 5.75
November 2008 1.45 3.38 6.03
December 2008 1.47 3.34 6.16
January 2009 1.50 3.32 6.19
February 2009 1.38 3.01 6.03
March 2009 1.43 3.07 5.87
April 2009 1.41 3.05 5.74
May 2009 1.48 3.11 5.56
June 2009 1.44 2.99 5.60
July 2009 1.42 2.92 5.59
August 2009 1.40 2.89 5.64
September 2009 1.41 2.90 5.56
October 2009 1.42 2.86 5.43
November 2009 1.41 2.79 5.28
December 2009 1.38 2.74 5.17
January 2010 1.43 2.83 5.14
February 2010 1.43 2.77 5.10
March 2010 1.41 2.71 5.05
April 2010 1.31 2.52 4.92
May 2010 1.31 2.55 4.91
June 2010 1.30 2.57 4.76
July 2010 1.31 2.62 4.68
August 2010 1.24 2.49 4.57
September 2010 1.25 2.46 4.57
October 2010 1.31 2.55 4.61
November 2010 1.27 2.48 4.61
December 2010 1.24 2.42 4.52
January 2011 1.17 2.28 4.37
February 2011 1.19 2.38 4.26
March 2011 1.17 2.31 4.24
April 2011 1.17 2.33 4.26
May 2011 1.17 2.24 4.30
June 2011 1.21 2.33 4.38
July 2011 1.25 2.41 4.40
August 2011 1.23 2.40 4.40
September 2011 1.19 2.35 4.37
October 2011 1.14 2.25 4.27
November 2011 1.12 2.28 4.12
December 2011 1.12 2.28 4.10
January 2012 1.08 2.20 4.08
February 2012 1.05 2.10 4.12
March 2012 1.06 2.11 4.13
April 2012 1.07 2.14 4.22
May 2012 1.09 2.19 4.23
June 2012 1.08 2.17 4.18
July 2012 1.07 2.10 4.09
August 2012 1.04 2.02 4.07
September 2012 1.13 2.22 4.32
October 2012 1.09 2.17 4.26
November 2012 1.09 2.17 4.13
December 2012 0.99 1.97 3.73
January 2013 1.00 2.03 3.76
February 2013 1.00 2.11 3.87
March 2013 1.04 2.17 3.98
April 2013 1.01 2.10 3.91
May 2013 0.98 2.02 3.82
June 2013 0.99 2.04 3.80
July 2013 1.01 2.07 3.88
August 2013 1.03 2.12 3.87
September 2013 0.93 1.99 3.77
October 2013 0.92 2.00 3.77
November 2013 0.92 2.02 3.83
December 2013 0.91 1.99 3.94
January 2014 0.90 1.93 3.90
February 2014 0.86 1.84 3.82
March 2014 0.86 1.81 3.63
April 2014 0.86 1.85 3.57
May 2014 0.87 1.89 3.56
June 2014 0.87 1.90 3.63
July 2014 0.87 1.91 3.60
August 2014 0.94 2.04 3.55
September 2014 0.90 2.01 3.49
October 2014 0.87 1.88 3.48
November 2014 0.87 1.93 3.55
December 2014 0.87 1.89 3.52
January 2015 0.90 2.03 3.54
February 2015 0.81 1.86 3.40
March 2015 0.82 1.92 3.40
April 2015 0.81 1.87 3.38
May 2015 0.85 1.94 3.45
June 2015 0.84 1.94 3.47
July 2015 0.83 1.94 3.49
August 2015 0.80 1.90 3.42
September 2015 0.81 1.92 3.36
October 2015 0.82 1.96 3.25
November 2015 0.81 1.92 3.23
December 2015 0.80 1.89 3.24
January 2016 0.89 2.11 3.32
February 2016 0.83 1.98 3.37
March 2016 0.84 2.03 3.45
April 2016 0.77 1.87 3.39
May 2016 0.82 2.01 3.40
June 2016 0.83 1.99 3.32
July 2016 0.87 2.08 3.41
August 2016 0.84 2.02 3.39
September 2016 0.82 1.96 3.37
October 2016 0.78 1.84 3.25
November 2016 0.80 1.87 3.23
December 2016 0.82 1.95 3.35
January 2017 0.80 1.91 3.37
February 2017 0.81 1.90 3.44
March 2017 0.77 1.80 3.36
April 2017 0.86 2.06 3.46
May 2017 0.83 2.03 3.41
June 2017 0.84 2.06 3.37
July 2017 0.77 1.87 3.21
August 2017 0.79 1.93 3.21
September 2017 0.87 2.15 3.40
October 2017 0.90 2.16 3.58
November 2017 0.90 2.15 3.54
December 2017 0.87 2.09 3.29
January 2018 0.81 1.98 3.18
February 2018 0.82 1.97 3.20
March 2018 0.79 1.83 3.22
April 2018 0.78 1.83 3.12
May 2018 0.77 1.81 3.06
June 2018 0.78 1.88 3.03
July 2018 0.78 1.87 2.99
August 2018 0.77 1.84 2.98
September 2018 0.80 1.90 2.91
October 2018 0.76 1.85 2.93
November 2018 0.76 1.84 2.92
December 2018 0.71 1.69 2.98
January 2019 0.73 1.77 2.99
February 2019 0.75 1.85 3.02
March 2019 0.79 2.00 3.10
April 2019 0.81 1.97 3.17
May 2019 0.80 1.90 3.24
June 2019 0.84 1.98 3.32
July 2019 0.82 1.99 3.20

Note: Precent of previously current mortgages that transition from being current mortgages that transition from bein current to being at least 30 days delinquent each month. The data are three-month moving averages. FHA is Federal Housing Administration; VA is U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Prime and nonprime are defined among conventional loans.

Source: For prime and FHA/VA, Black Knight McDash Data; for nonprime, CoreLogic

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2-11. Estimate of Mortgages with Negative Equity

Percent

Date Zillow (quarterly) Corelogic (monthly)
January 2011   25.28
February 2011   25.14
March 2011 0.31 24.99
April 2011   24.93
May 2011   24.87
June 2011 0.30 24.81
July 2011   24.65
August 2011   24.50
September 2011 0.31 24.36
October 2011   24.65
November 2011   24.93
December 2011 0.31 25.23
January 2012   24.69
February 2012   24.20
March 2012 0.31 23.67
April 2012   23.21
May 2012   22.74
June 2012 0.31 22.28
July 2012   22.17
August 2012   22.06
September 2012 0.28 21.96
October 2012   21.84
November 2012   21.72
December 2012 0.27 21.60
January 2013   21.11
February 2013   20.67
March 2013 0.25 20.18
April 2013   18.43
May 2013   16.62
June 2013 0.24 14.87
July 2013   14.35
August 2013   13.83
September 2013 0.21 13.33
October 2013   13.37
November 2013   13.41
December 2013 0.19 13.45
January 2014   13.25
February 2014   13.07
March 2014 0.19 12.88
April 2014   12.23
May 2014   11.56
June 2014 0.18 10.92
July 2014   10.74
August 2014   10.56
September 2014 0.17 10.39
October 2014   10.49
November 2014   10.59
December 2014 0.17 10.69
January 2015   10.54
February 2015   10.41
March 2015 0.15 10.27
April 2015   9.81
May 2015   9.34
June 2015 0.14 8.88
July 2015   8.70
August 2015   8.53
September 2015 0.13 8.36
October 2015   8.36
November 2015   8.36
December 2015 0.13 8.36
January 2016   8.28
February 2016   8.20
March 2016 0.13 8.12
April 2016   7.77
May 2016   7.41
June 2016 0.12 7.06
July 2016   6.82
August 2016   6.58
September 2016 0.11 6.34
October 2016   6.32
November 2016   6.29
December 2016 0.11 6.26
January 2017   6.19
February 2017   6.12
March 2017 0.10 6.05
April 2017   5.85
May 2017   5.65
June 2017   5.45
July 2017   5.28
August 2017   5.12
September 2017   4.96
October 2017   4.94
November 2017   4.92
December 2017 0.09 4.91
January 2018   4.84
February 2018   4.78
March 2018   4.71
April 2018   4.57
May 2018   4.43
June 2018   4.29
July 2018   4.24
August 2018   4.18
September 2018   4.13
October 2018   4.15
November 2018   4.16
December 2018   4.17
January 2019   4.16
February 2019   4.14
March 2019   4.13
April 2019   4.03
May 2019   3.93
June 2019   3.83

Note: Estimated share of mortgages with negative equity according to CoreLogic and Zillow. For CoreLogic, the data are monthly. For Zillow, the data are quarterly and, for 2017, are available only for the first and fourth quarters.

Source: CoreLogic; Zillow.

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2-12. Estimates of Housing Leverage

Figure 2-12: This is a line chart titled "Estimates of Housing Leverage". The x-axis ranges from the years 1999 to 2019. The y-axis ranges from 70 to 150, which measures indexed ratios of outstanding mortgage debt to home values (with 100 being the ratio in 1991:Q1). The data is quarterly, ending in Q4 of 2019. There are two variables charted on the plot. The first line is labeled 'Relative to model-implied values' and is designated by the black line. It ranges from 100 to a little less than 130. The variable has a hill shape, starting at 100 in 1999 and increasing to a little less than 130 in 2008 before decreasing to a bit less than 100 in 2019. The second line is labeled 'Relative to market value' and is designated by the blue line. The variable also starts at 100 in 1999 but declines to reach 80 in 2006. It then rises sharply to around 125-130 in the years 2009-2012 before decreasing to around 90 at the end of the time period on 2019.

Note: Housing leverage is estimated as the ratio of the average outstanding mortgage loan balance for owner-occupied homes with a mortgage to (1) current home values using the CoreLogic national house price index and (2) model-implied house prices estimated by a staff model based on rents, interest rates, and a time trend.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; CoreLogic; Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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2-13. Consumer Credit Balances

Figure 2-13: This is a line chart titled "Consumer Credit Balances". The x-axis ranges from the years 1999 to 2019 (Q4). The y-axis ranges from 200 to 1800, in the units billions of dollars (real). The data is quarterly. There are 3 variables plotted on the chart. The first line is labeled 'Auto loans'; is designated by a black line; and ranges from around 500 to 1200 billions of dollars. It starts around at around 500 in 1999 and increases to around 1000 billions of dollars in 2005-2006. Auto loan balances fall slightly to around 800 in 2012 but began increasing again afterwards; the line ends at about 1350 billions of dollars in 2019. The second variable is labeled 'Credit cards' and is represented by a blue line. It ranges from around 500 to 1000 billions of dollars. Starting at around 700 billions of dollars in 1999, credit cards balances increase to a little under 1000 billion and remain fairly steady for several years with a peak at a little above 1000 billion in 2009. Balances began to decrease after 2009 to around 700 billions of dollars in 2013 and have made a small increase to around 900 by the end of 2019. The third variable is labeled 'Student loans' and is represented by an red line. The variable starts at around 400 billions of dollars in 2005. There are two small, brief dips in 2008 and 2012 but otherwise balances steadily increase to about 1500 billions of dollars by the end of 2019.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2019 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

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2-14. Auto Loan Balances

Figure 2-14: This is a line chart labeled "Auto Loan Balances". The x-axis ranges from the years 1999 to 2019, and the y-axis ranges from 150 to 600 billions of dollars (real). The data is quarterly, ending in Q4 of 2019. There are 3 variables plotted on the chart. The first variable is labeled 'Prime' and is designated by a black line. It ranges from around 175 to 625 billions of dollars. Auto loans to borrowers with prime credit scores started at around 175 billions of dollars in 1999 and continued to increase to around 400 billion in 2006. There is a slight decline from 2006 until balances were close to 350 billion in 2010 and 2011. From 2011 onwards, the balances labeled 'Prime' increased, reaching 600 billions of dollars at the end of 2018. It has stayed at slightly above this level until Q4 of 2019. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime'; is represented by a blue line; and ranges from around 200 to 350 billions of dollars. Starting at 200 billion in 1999, balances to those with near prime credit increases to almost 350 billion dollars in 2005 to 2006. Near prime balances decrease to around 250 billion dollars in 2010 to 2011 before increasing again. The level has been fairly stable around 350 billion since 2016. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime'; is designated by an red line; and ranges from around 150 to 300 billions of dollars. It starts at around 150 billion dollars in 1999 and increases with fluctuations until reaching a peak at around 300 billion dollars in 2008. It decreases to around 200 billion in 2012 before beginning to increase to around 300 billion in 2018. It increases slightly above 300 billion to end in Q4 of 2019.

Note: Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score below 619; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. The data are converted to constant 2019 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

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2-15. Auto Loan Delinquency Rates

Figure 2-15: This is a line chart titled "Auto Loan Delinquency Rates". The x-axis ranges from the years 2000 to 2019. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 16 percent, measuring delinquency rates on auto loans. The data is quarterly, ending in Q4 of 2019. There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled 'Prime' and is denoted by the black line. It is fairly stable at around 0 and has the shape of a horizontal line. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime'; is represented by a blue line; and ranges from around 2 to 3 percent. The variable is mostly flat at 2 percent except for a small one percentage point increase between 2009 and 2011. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime' and is designated by an red line. It ranges from around 9 to 14 percent. This line starts around 10 percent in 2001 and increases slightly until 2004. It decreases to around 9 percent in 2006 before quickly increasing. The rates peak at around 14 percent in 2010. They fall to 10 percent again by 2013 before increasing to reach almost 12 percent at the end of the time period.

Note: Delinquency is at least 30 days past due, excluding severe derogatory loans. The data are four quarter moving averages. Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score below 619; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Credit scores are lagged four quarters.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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2-16. Credit Card Balances

Figure 2-16: This is a line chart labeled "Credit Card Balances". The x-axis ranges from the years 1999 to 2019, and the y-axis ranges from 50 to 500 billions of dollars (real). The data is quarterly, ending in Q4 of 2019. There are 3 variables plotted on the chart. The first variable is labeled 'Prime' and is designated by a black line. It ranges from around 200 to 450 billions of dollars. Auto loans to borrowers with prime credit scores started at around 200 billions of dollars in 1999 and continued to increase to around 450 billion in 2009. There is a slight decline from 2009 until balances were close to 350 billion in 2011 and 2012. From 2012 onwards, the balances labeled 'Prime' have been increasing with fluctuations, reaching almost 475 billions of dollars at the end of the time period. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime'; is represented by a blue line; and ranges from around 250 to 400 billions of dollars. Starting at 350 billion in 1999, balances to those with near prime credit increases to almost 400 billion dollars in 2002 to 2003. Near prime balances decrease to around 350 billion dollars in 2005 and remains mostly flat until 2008 before decreasing to around 250 billion dollars in 2011. The level has risen slowly since then, nearing 300 billion in 2019. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime'; is designated by an red line; and ranges from around 100 to 250 billions of dollars. It starts at around 200 billion dollars in 1999 and increases until reaching a peak at around 250 billion dollars in 2002. It decreases to around 200 billion in 2005 before beginning to increase with fluctuations to around 250 billion in 2008. It decreases to around 100 billion dollars in 2013 before slowly climbing again, reaching around 150 billion dollars in 2019 Q4.

Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score below 619; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Scores are measured contemporaneously. The data are converted to constant 2019 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

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2-17. Credit Card Delinquency Rates

Figure 2-17: This is a line chart titled "Credit Card Delinquency Rates". The x-axis ranges from the years 2000 to 2019. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 30 percent, measuring delinquency rates on credit cards. The data is quarterly, ending in Q4 of 2019. There are 3 variables charted on the plot. The first variable is labeled 'Prime' and is denoted by the black line. It ranges from around 1 to 3 percent. The variable is mostly flat at 1 percent except for a small two percentage point increase between 2009 and 2011. The second variable is labeled 'Near prime'; is represented by a blue line; and ranges from around 4 to 8 percent. The variable mostly hovers at 4 percent except for a small four percentage point increase between 2009 and 2011. It has been slowly increasing since Q4 of 2016 when it was closer to 3 percent to Q4 of 2019 when it again approached 5 percent. The third variable is labeled 'Subprime' and is designated by an red line. It ranges from around 10 to 23 percent. This line starts around 15 percent in 2001 and increases to 20 percent in 2003. It decreases to around 15 percent in 2005 before quickly increasing. The rates peak at around 25 percent in 2010. It falls to 10 percent by 2016 before increasing to reach almost 15 percent in 2017 and leveling off to end around 14 percent.

Note: Delinquency is at least 30 days past due, excluding severe derogatory loans. The data are four-quarter moving averages. Subprime are those with an Equifax Risk Score below 619; near prime are from 620 to 719; prime are greater than 719. Credit scores are lagged four quarters.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

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3-1. Ratio of Tangible Bank Equity to Assets

Figure 3-1: This is a line chart titled "Ratio of Tangible Bank Equity to Assets." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 1985 to 2019. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 12 percent. The data are quarterly. There are three variables charted on the plot. The first line, labeled 'Other BHCs', is designated by a solid black line and ranges from 6 to 10 percent. This variable rises slowly over the time period from about 6.5 percent in 1985 to 10 percent in 2012:Q3. It has remained near 10 percent through 2019:Q4. The second line, labeled 'Large non-G-SIBs', is designated by a solid blue line and ranges from 4 to 9 percent. This variable started at about 5 percent in 1985, rose sharply to 6 percent in the beginning of 1987, decreased back to around 5 percent increased to 6 percent in 1993, remained near 6 percent through 1992. It increased again to around 6 percent where it remained until 2001 before increasing again through 2002:Q3 to about 7 percent. It decreased slowly until 2008 when it reached about 5 percent. It steadily increased after that until the end of period, ending at around 9 percent. The third line, labeled ‘G-SIBs’, is designated by a solid red line and ranges from 4 to 9 percent. This variable starts at about 5 percent, increases until 1986:Q3, decreases until 1988, and then steadily increases until 1993 when it reaches about 5.5 percent. It remains near this level until 2001 then begins increasing to about 6.5 percent in 2002:Q4. It decreases to 4.5 percent in 2008:Q3. It then increases through 2017 to about 8.5 percent and remains near that level through the end of the period.

Note: Bank equity is total equity capital net of preferred equity and intangible assets, and assets are total assets. The data are seasonally adjusted by Board staff. G-SIBs are global systemically important U.S. banks. Large non-G-SIBs are bank holding companies (BHCs) and intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.

Source: Federal Financial Institutions examination Council, Call report Form FFIEC 031, Consolidated reports of Condition and Income for a Bank with Domestic and Foreign offices.

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3-2. Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio of Banks*

Figure 3-2: This is a line chart titled "Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio of Banks." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2001 to 2019. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 14 percent. The data are quarterly. There are three variables charted on the plot. The first line, labeled 'Other BHCs', is designated by a solid black line and ranges from 8 to just over 12 percent. This variable decreases slightly over 2001 to 2008 from 10 to 8 percent, increases from 8 percent in 2009 to 12 percent in 2014, and has remained near 12 percent through 2019. The second line, labeled 'Large non-G-SIBs', is designated by a solid blue line and ranges from about 5 to 12 percent. This remains near 7 percent from 2001 to 2006, decreases to 6 percent in 2008, increases to just under 12 percent through the end of 2017 where it has remained through 2019. The third line, labeled ‘G-SIBs’, is designated by a solid red line and ranges from 5 to 12 percent. It remains near 7 percent from 2001 to 2006, decreases to 5 percent in 2008:Q4, increases to around 12 percent in 2017, where it has remained through 2019:Q4. .

Note: The data are seasonally adjusted by Federal Reserve Board staff. Sample consists of domes¬tic bank holding companies (BHCs) and intermediate holding companies (IHCs) with a substantial U.S. commercial banking presence. G-SIBs are global systemically important U.S. banks. Large non–G-SIBs are BHCs and IHCs with greater than $100 billion in total assets that are not G-SIBs. Before 2014:Q1 (advanced-approaches BHCs) or before 2015:Q1 (non-advanced-approaches BHCs) the numerator of the common equity Tier 1 ratio is Tier 1 common capital. Afterward, the numerator is common equity Tier 1 capital. The denom¬inator is risk-weighted assets. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001–November 2001, and December 2007–June 2009.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

Note*

  • On November 10, 2021, the data in figure 3-2 was corrected to fix a coding error.
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3-3. Change in Bank Lending Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans

Figure 3-3: This is a line chart titled "Change in Bank Lending Standards for C&I Loans," with one variable plotted. The x-axis measures time and ranges from 1997 to 2020. The y-axis ranges from -100 to 100, and measures net percentage of banks reporting. Negative y-axis values are labeled 'Easing' and positive y-axis values are labeled 'Tightening.' The data are quarterly and end in Q1 of 2020. The variable begins around -15 percent in 1997, and increases to around 60 percent in 1998, before dropping to around 5 percent in 1999. It increases sharply to around 80 percent by the end of 2000, and gradually falls from 2001 to 2005, reaching around -55 percent. It gradually increases from 2005 to 2008, reaching its peak of around 80 percent near the end of 2008. It drops sharply in 2009, reaching around 0 percent by the end of the year. It gradually declines to around -20 percent in 2011 before increasing back to 0 percent in 2012. It decreases back to around -20 in 2013, slowly increases to around 10 percent from 2014 to 2016, then decreases back towards around -20 percent in the beginning of 2018. It then increases through 2018 to end at around -5 percent before dropping back to around -15 percent in Q2 of 2019. The line then increases sharply to around 40 percent in the Q1 of 2020.

Note: Banks’ responses are weighted by their commercial and industrial (C&I) loan market shares. Survey respondents to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices are asked about the changes over the quarter. Results are shown for loans to large and medium-sized firms. The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001 and December 2007–June 2009.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

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3-4. Borrower Leverage for Bank Commercial and Industrial Loans

Figure 3-4: This is a line chart titled "Borrower Leverage for Bank C&I Loans." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2013 to 2019. The y-axis ranges from 24 to 36 percent. The data are quarterly. There are two variables charted on the plot. The first line, labeled 'Nonpublicly traded firms', is designated by a solid blue line and ranges from about 30 to 34 percent. This variable begins at 32 percent, quickly decreases to about 30 percent in 2013, rises slowly to 34 percent in 2018, and decreases to just above 33 percent in 2018:Q4. It then increases over the next two quarters to just above 34 percent and remains there through 2019:Q4. The second line, labeled 'Publicly traded firms', is designated by a solid black line and ranges from about 25 to 31 percent. This variable begins at about 25.5, increases steadily to 31 percent in 2016:Q2, decreases to 30 percent in 2016:Q4, and rises slowly to about 31 percent in 2018 before dropping close to 30 percent in 2018:Q4. It then increases over the next two quarters to around 31 percent in 2019:Q2, and decreases over the next two quarters to end slightly below 31 percent in 2019:Q4.

Note: Weighted median leverage of nonfinancial firms that borrow using commercial and industrial (C&I) loans from the 26 banks that have filed in every quarter since 2013:Q1. Leverage is measured as the ratio of the book value of total debt to the book value of total assets of the borrower, as reported by the lender, and the median is weighted by committed amounts.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

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3-5. Leverage at Broker-Dealers

Ratio of assets to equity

Period Leverage at Broker-Dealers
1995:Q1 30.60
1995:Q2 30.72
1995:Q3 31.31
1995:Q4 31.84
1996:Q1 33.12
1996:Q2 33.10
1996:Q3 33.34
1996:Q4 33.88
1997:Q1 35.28
1997:Q2 35.29
1997:Q3 35.50
1997:Q4 32.97
1998:Q1 35.51
1998:Q2 35.01
1998:Q3 35.07
1998:Q4 30.43
1999:Q1 30.91
1999:Q2 29.37
1999:Q3 28.43
1999:Q4 28.56
2000:Q1 29.86
2000:Q2 28.89
2000:Q3 28.51
2000:Q4 28.26
2001:Q1 28.56
2001:Q2 30.03
2001:Q3 31.47
2001:Q4 31.34
2002:Q1 31.66
2002:Q2 31.26
2002:Q3 31.79
2002:Q4 30.63
2003:Q1 32.03
2003:Q2 34.79
2003:Q3 32.97
2003:Q4 33.67
2004:Q1 35.58
2004:Q2 37.77
2004:Q3 38.59
2004:Q4 39.28
2005:Q1 41.07
2005:Q2 41.44
2005:Q3 41.97
2005:Q4 39.88
2006:Q1 40.50
2006:Q2 40.65
2006:Q3 42.29
2006:Q4 43.01
2007:Q1 45.28
2007:Q2 46.90
2007:Q3 46.02
2007:Q4 46.30
2008:Q1 47.89
2008:Q2 41.87
2008:Q3 43.21
2008:Q4 30.71
2009:Q1 28.32
2009:Q2 24.90
2009:Q3 24.96
2009:Q4 23.51
2010:Q1 24.51
2010:Q2 24.04
2010:Q3 24.31
2010:Q4 23.52
2011:Q1 24.29
2011:Q2 24.44
2011:Q3 24.57
2011:Q4 24.64
2012:Q1 24.53
2012:Q2 24.43
2012:Q3 23.85
2012:Q4 23.46
2013:Q1 22.84
2013:Q2 22.15
2013:Q3 21.84
2013:Q4 21.10
2014:Q1 21.13
2014:Q2 21.35
2014:Q3 20.72
2014:Q4 19.82
2015:Q1 19.73
2015:Q2 19.33
2015:Q3 18.83
2015:Q4 18.15
2016:Q1 18.12
2016:Q2 18.30
2016:Q3 18.04
2016:Q4 17.61
2017:Q1 17.77
2017:Q2 18.31
2017:Q3 17.41
2017:Q4 17.15
2018:Q1 17.21
2018:Q2 18.06
2018:Q3 17.90
2018:Q4 18.10
2019:Q1 17.92
2019:Q2 17.86
2019:Q3 17.77
2019:Q4 16.85

Note: Leverage is calculated by dividing financial assets by equity.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States."

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3-6. Leverage at Insurance Companies

Ratio of assets to equity

Period Life Property and casualty
2000:Q1 8.63 5.49
2000:Q2 8.45 5.40
2000:Q3 8.39 5.33
2000:Q4 8.96 5.75
2001:Q1 8.36 5.40
2001:Q2 8.83 5.50
2001:Q3 9.45 6.22
2001:Q4 10.03 6.37
2002:Q1 9.63 6.24
2002:Q2 9.83 6.32
2002:Q3 10.14 6.41
2002:Q4 10.79 6.66
2003:Q1 11.04 6.79
2003:Q2 11.16 6.71
2003:Q3 11.00 6.72
2003:Q4 10.93 6.68
2004:Q1 11.29 7.05
2004:Q2 11.37 6.74
2004:Q3 11.48 6.79
2004:Q4 11.68 6.80
2005:Q1 11.30 6.79
2005:Q2 10.67 6.58
2005:Q3 10.78 6.63
2005:Q4 10.87 6.45
2006:Q1 10.11 6.47
2006:Q2 10.00 6.38
2006:Q3 9.94 6.35
2006:Q4 9.87 6.28
2007:Q1 9.97 6.33
2007:Q2 9.83 6.32
2007:Q3 9.96 6.32
2007:Q4 9.74 6.09
2008:Q1 10.84 6.54
2008:Q2 10.72 6.45
2008:Q3 10.64 6.47
2008:Q4 10.77 5.99
2009:Q1 10.79 5.96
2009:Q2 9.97 5.62
2009:Q3 9.97 5.61
2009:Q4 8.92 5.23
2010:Q1 9.24 5.21
2010:Q2 9.45 5.14
2010:Q3 9.73 5.22
2010:Q4 8.63 4.49
2011:Q1 9.74 4.63
2011:Q2 9.40 4.58
2011:Q3 9.48 4.42
2011:Q4 8.90 4.15
2012:Q1 8.85 4.14
2012:Q2 8.86 4.14
2012:Q3 9.20 4.18
2012:Q4 9.44 4.20
2013:Q1 9.28 4.12
2013:Q2 8.90 3.99
2013:Q3 8.67 3.93
2013:Q4 8.52 3.92
2014:Q1 8.56 3.89
2014:Q2 8.43 3.71
2014:Q3 8.38 3.66
2014:Q4 8.40 3.62
2015:Q1 8.50 3.58
2015:Q2 8.21 3.55
2015:Q3 8.46 3.49
2015:Q4 9.07 3.50
2016:Q1 9.28 3.59
2016:Q2 9.71 3.61
2016:Q3 9.82 3.59
2016:Q4 9.82 3.84
2017:Q1 9.35 3.62
2017:Q2 9.82 3.63
2017:Q3 9.50 3.68
2017:Q4 9.71 3.78
2018:Q1 9.65 3.32
2018:Q2 9.50 2.97
2018:Q3 9.51 2.94
2018:Q4 9.66 3.04
2019:Q1 9.88 3.01
2019:Q2 10.00 3.01
2019:Q3 10.22 2.98
2019:Q4 10.18 2.89

Ratio is calculated as (total assets − separate account assets)/(total capital − accumulated other comprehensive income) using GAAP. Top 10 publicly traded life and property and casualty insurers.

Source: S&P Global, Inc., S&P Market Intelligence.

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3-7. Gross Leverage at Hedge Funds

Ratio

Period Mean Median
October 2013 5.4 2.3
November 2013 5.6 2.3
December 2013 5.3 2.3
January 2014 5.1 2.3
February 2014 5.2 2.3
March 2014 5.1 2.3
April 2014 5.1 2.2
May 2014 5.2 2.3
June 2014 5.1 2.3
July 2014 5.6 2.3
August 2014 5.8 2.3
September 2014 5.7 2.3
October 2014 5.2 2.2
November 2014 5.1 2.3
December 2014 4.8 2.3
January 2015 5.1 2.2
February 2015 5.3 2.3
March 2015 5.1 2.3
April 2015 5.4 2.4
May 2015 5.5 2.4
June 2015 4.9 2.3
July 2015 5.7 2.4
August 2015 5.8 2.4
September 2015 5.7 2.2
October 2015 5.7 2.5
November 2015 6 2.4
December 2015 4.9 2.3
January 2016 5.4 2.4
February 2016 5.8 2.3
March 2016 5.8 2.3
April 2016 5.8 2.3
May 2016 5.9 2.4
June 2016 5.6 2.3
July 2016 5.4 2.3
August 2016 5.7 2.3
September 2016 5.4 2.3
October 2016 6 2.4
November 2016 6.1 2.4
December 2016 5.5 2.3
January 2017 6 2.4
February 2017 6.2 2.4
March 2017 6 2.4
April 2017 5.9 2.4
May 2017 6.3 2.4
June 2017 5.7 2.3
July 2017 6.7 2.3
August 2017 7.1 2.4
September 2017 6.9 2.3
October 2017 6.7 2.3
November 2017 7.1 2.3
December 2017 6.5 2.3
January 2018 7.8 2.4
February 2018 7.7 2.4
March 2018 7.4 2.3
April 2018 8.2 2.3
May 2018 8.3 2.4
June 2018 8 2.3
July 2018 8.1 2.4
August 2018 8.4 2.4
September 2018 7.7 2.3
October 2018 8.3 2.4
November 2018 8.7 2.4
December 2018 7.7 2.2
January 2019 8.1 2.2
February 2019 8.6 2.2
March 2019 8.3 2.1
April 2019 8.4 2.2
May 2019 8.4 2.3
June 2019 7.9 2.3

Note: Leverage is computed as the ratio of hedge funds' gross notional exposure (including derivative notional exposures and the nominal value of all long and short positions) to net asset value. Data are reported on a three-quarter lag.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Securities and Exchange Commission, Form PF, Reporting Form for Investment Advisers to Private Funds and Certain Commodity Pool Operators and Commodity Trading Advisors.

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3-8. Change in the Use of Financial Leverage

Figure 3-8: This is a line chart titled "Change in the Use of Financial Leverage." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2012 to 2020. The y-axis ranges from -80 to 60 percent. The data are quarterly. There are four variables charted on the plot. The first line, labeled ‘Hedge funds’ is designated by a solid black line and ranges from about -60 percent to about 30 percent. The line starts at -60 percent and increases steadily to 200 percent in 2013:Q1 before decreasing to -20 percent in 2013:Q3. It then increases to 20 percent by 2014:Q3, and oscillates around zero in the range of -10 to 10 for the remainder of the series. The second line, labeled ‘Trading REITs', is designated by a solid blue line and ranges from about -40 to 20 percent. This variable begins at 0 and remains in the range of 0 to 20 percent through 2013:Q2. It then decreases sharply to -40 percent and remains there through 2014:Q1. The line then oscillates around zero in the range of -10 to 10, with one notable sharp decline to -20in 2017:Q4. The line increases to about 15percent in the first quarter of 2019 and decreases slightly to end at about 5 percent. The third line labeled ‘Insurance companies’ is designated by a solid red line. It begins at zero and remains in a tight range of -5 to 5 percent for the duration of the chart. The series ends at around zero in 2020:Q1. The fourth line labeled ‘Mutual funds’ is designated by a dashed black line. The series begins at zero and remains flat in a range of 0 to 10 percent throughout the duration of the chart. The series ends at about zero percent.

Note: Net percentage equals the percentage of institutions that reported increased use of financial leverage over the past three months minus the percentage of institutions that reported decreased use of financial leverage over the past three months. REIT is real estate investment trust.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms.

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3-9. Issuance of Non-agency Securitized Products, by Asset Class

Figure 3-9: This is a stacked bar chart with five categories titled, "Issuance of Non-Agency Securitized Products, by Asset Class." The x-axis is in years and spans from 2001 to 2019. The y-axis is in billions of dollars (real) and ranges from 0 to 2800. Data are annual. CDOs (including ABS, CDO, CLO), represented in yellow, begin at about 100 in 2001, peak at about 500 in 2006, decrease to about 50 by 2008 and then zero in 2011, and generally increase to about 140 in 2019 before ending around 87 in 2020. Auto loan/lease ABS, represented in dark blue, begins at about 100 in 2001 and remains at that level until 2008 where it decreases. The bar then increases to about 100 by 2012, and increases to around 120 by 2020. Non-agency CMBS, represented in orange, begins at about 100 in 2001, peaks at about 300 in 2007, drops to about zero from 2008 through 2011, and increases to about 98 in 2019 before ending at about 92 in 2020. Private-label RMBS, represented in dark gray, begins at about 350 in 2001, peaks at about 1400 in 2005, decreases to about zero by 2008, and slowly increases to about 103 in 2019 before ending around 108 in 2020. Other, represented in light gray, begins at about 200 in 2001, peaks at about 275 in 2007, drops to about 150 in 2008, and increases to about 123 in 2019 before dropping slightly to end at 92 in 2020. All five categories together begin at about 800 in 2001 and peak near 2400 in 2006. The total then drops to about 400 in 2008, and increases to about 585 in 2019 before dropping to end at about 500 in 2020.

Note: The data from the first quarter of 2020 is annualized to create the 2020 bar. CMBS is commercial mortgage-backed securities; CDO is collateralized debt obligation; RMBS is residential mortgage-backed securities; CLO is collateralized loan obligation. The "Other" category consists of other asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by credit card debt, student loans, equipment, floor plans, and miscellaneous receivables; resecuritized real estate mortgage investment conduit (Re-REMIC) RMBS; and Re-REMIC CMBS. The data are converted to constant 2020 dollars using the consumer price index. Key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Green Street Advisors, LLC, Commercial Mortgage Alert (cmalert.com) and Asset-Backed Alert (abalert.com); Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

3-9. Issuance of Non-agency Securitized Products, by Asset Class

Billions of dollars (real)

Annual Date CDO annual Auto Loan / Lease ABS annual Private-label RMBS annual Non-agency CMBS annual Other annual
2001 80.254 118.525 98.126 353.747 218.520
2002 88.379 136.432 74.678 549.518 192.841
2003 85.575 119.859 109.240 741.329 216.800
2004 132.114 99.999 126.362 1053.267 210.760
2005 244.354 136.138 219.600 1440.351 243.876
2006 488.211 104.961 254.146 1415.941 279.106
2007 382.395 78.392 284.872 840.639 279.303
2008 64.165 44.580 14.671 16.961 141.420
2009 10.878 64.491 3.188 2.635 168.096
2010 5.380 65.765 12.855 3.462 149.337
2011 16.578 67.340 35.344 1.751 96.233
2012 65.463 92.441 50.641 6.854 133.790
2013 108.213 87.673 90.685 19.029 125.295
2014 141.496 94.501 98.133 19.201 144.492
2015 117.887 97.600 104.350 34.008 125.642
2016 89.807 92.605 72.756 31.397 112.731
2017 132.981 102.997 92.753 60.818 139.759
2018 150.779 113.562 79.180 74.934 142.740
2019 143.820 118.796 103.584 98.544 123.641
2020 87.048 119.608 107.272 91.636 91.752

The data from the first quarter of 2020 is annualized to create the 2020 bar. CMBS is commercial mortgage-backed securities; CDO is collateralized debt obligation; RMBS is residential mortgage-backed securities; CLO is collateralized loan obligation. The "Other" category consists of other asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by credit card debt, student loans, equipment, floor plans, and miscellaneous receivables; resecuritized real estate mortgage investment conduit (Re-REMIC) RMBS; and Re-REMIC CMBS. The data are converted to constant 2020 dollars using the consumer price index. Key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.

Source: Green Street Advisors, LLC, Commercial Mortgage Alert (cmalert.com) and Asset-Backed Alert (abalert.com); Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

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3-10. Large Bank Lending to Nonbank Financial Firms: Committed Amounts

Figure 3-10: This is a stacked line chart titled "Large Bank Lending to Nonbank Financial Firms: Committed Amounts." The x-axis measures time and ranges from years 2013 to 2019. The y-axis measures billions of dollars and ranges from 0 to 2000. The data are quarterly. There are 10 variables charted on the plot, which sum up to represent total committed amounts extended to nonbank financials by large banks. The overall trend has been steadily increasing from about 600 billion in 2013 to about 1.4 trillion in 2019:Q4. The first variable, 'financial transactions processing', is designated by green shading. This variable increases from 12 billion in 2013 to 40 billion in 2019. The second variable, 'Private equity, BDCs, and credit funds', is designated by deep red shading. This variable increases from 5 billion in 2013 to 60 billion in 2018. It then decreases slightly to about 55 billion in Q4 of 2019. The third variable, 'Broker-dealers', is designated by light blue shading. This variable increases steadily from 66 billion in 2013:Q1 to 106 billion in 2015:Q3, and remains near 100 billion through 2018:Q4. It then increases the next four quarters to end around 135 billion in 2019:Q4. The fourth variable, 'Insurance', is designated by purple shading. This variable remains constant through 2015:Q2 at about 90 billion, increases sharply in 2015:Q3 to 110 billion, decreases to 100 billion in 2016:Q2, increases to 119 billion in 2016:Q4, falls to 103 billion in 2017:Q2, and increases through 2018:Q1 to 143 billion before falling to 120 billion in 2019:Q4. The fifth variable, 'REITs', is designated by dark red shading. Increases steadily from 60 billion in 2013:Q1 to 130 billion in 2018:Q3 before dropping to 90 billion in 2019:Q4. The sixth variable, 'Open-end investment funds', is designated by light green shading. This variable increases steadily from 70 billion in 2013:Q1 to 145 billion in 2019:Q4. The seventh variable, 'Special purpose entities, CLOs, and ABS', is designated by light gray shading. Increases steadily from 60 billion in 2013:Q1 to 170 billion in 2019:Q4. The eighth variable, 'Other financial vehicles', is designated by dark gray shading. This variable increased from 130 billion in 2013:Q1 to 250 billion 2019:Q4. The ninth variable, 'Real estate lenders and lessors', is designated by beige shading. This variable has increased steadily from 95 billion in 2013:Q1 to nearly 250 billion in 2019:Q4. The tenth variable, 'Consumer lenders, other lenders, and lessors', is designated by dark blue shading. This variable increased slightly from near 130 billion in 2013:Q1 to 160 billion in 2015:Q4, before falling to 150 billion in 2016:Q2, and increases to 180 billion in 2017:Q4 where it remained through 2019:Q1 before dropping to about 170 billion in 2019:Q2. It then increased to 190 billion by 2019:Q4.

Note: Committed amounts on credit lines and term loans extended to nonbank financial firms by a balanced panel of 26 bank holding companies that have filed Form FR Y-14Q in every quarter since 2013:Q1. Nonbank financial firms are identified based on reported North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. In addition to NAICS codes, a name-matching algorithm is applied to identify specific entities such as real estate investment trusts (REITs), special purpose entities, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and asset-backed securities (ABS). REITs incorporate both mortgage (trading) REITs and equity REITs. Broker-dealers also include commodity contracts dealers and brokerages and other securities and commodity exchanges. Other financial vehicles include closed-end investment and mutual funds and financial planning and pension funds. BDC is business development company.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-14Q (Schedule H.1), Capital Assessments and Stress Testing.

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4-1. Liquid Assets Held by Banks

Figure 4-1: This is a line chart titled "Liquid Assets Held by Banks." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2001 to 2019. The y-axis represents liquid assets as a percent of total assets, and ranges from 0 to 24 percent. The data are quarterly. There are three variables charted on the plot. The first line, labeled ‘Other BHCs’ is designated by a solid black line and ranges from about 7 percent to about 12 percent. The series falls from about 10 percent in 2001 to about 7 percent in 2008 Q3 and then rises steadily to about 12 percent in 2012Q4. The line then declines steadily to around 9 percent at the end of 2019. The second line, labeled 'Large non-G-SIBs', is designated by a solid blue line and ranges from 7 to about 18 percent. This variable falls from about 9 percent to about 8 percent in 2008 Q3 before jumping sharply to 13 percent and rising steadily to about 15 percent by 2019Q4. The third line, labeled G-SIBs', is designated by a solid red line and ranges from about 8 to 22 percent. It begins around 8 in 2001 and steadily decreases through 2008 to close to 8. It then spikes to around 12 in 2009 and steadily increases to 22 through 2014. The series levels off and remains around 22 through 2018Q4. The series drops to around 20 in 2019 Q1 and rises to 22 over the following three quarters.

Note: Liquid assets are cash plus estimates of securities that qualify as high-quality liquid assets as defined by the liquidity coverage ratio requirement. Accordingly, Level 1 assets, and discounts and restrictions on Level 2 assets, are incorporated into the estimate. G-SIBs are global systemically important U.S. banks. Large non-G-SIBs are bank holding companies (BHCs) and intermediate holding companies with greater than $100 billion in total assets.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies. Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report).

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4-2. Short-Term Wholesale Funding of Banks

Figure 4-2: This is a line chart titled "Short-Term Wholesale Funding of Banks." The x-axis measures time and ranges from the years 2001 to 2019. The y-axis represents short-term wholesale funding as a percent of assets, and ranges from 10 to 40 percent. The data are quarterly. There is one variable charted on the plot. The variable is designated by a solid black line and ranges from about 15 to 35 percent. The variable begins near 25 percent in 2000:Q1, declines steadily to about 23 percent in 2003:Q1, increases to about 33 percent in 2007:Q1 and remains there until 2008:Q1. It then steadily declines to about 16 percent in 2015:Q1 and remains near that level through 2019:Q3 before declining slightly to end at about 15 percent in 2019:Q4.

Note: Short-term wholesale funding is defined as the sum of large time deposits with maturity less than one year, federal funds purchased and securities sold under agreements to repurchase, deposits in foreign offices with maturity less than one year, trading liabilities (excluding revaluation losses on derivatives), and other borrowed money with maturity less than one year. The shaded bars with top caps indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: March 2001–November 2001 and December 2007–June 2009.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Form FR Y-9C, Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies.

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4-3. Runnable Money-Like Liabilities as a Share of GDP, by Instrument and Institution *

Percent of GDP

Date Other Securities lending Commercial paper Domestic money market funds Repurchase agreements Uninsured deposits
2002 Q1 5.338454921 3.671869 13.04725785 21.52147324 19.02449887 11.2213538
2002 Q2 5.247557356 3.961098369 12.34103271 20.66229404 20.56732944 11.4801712
2002 Q3 5.455437546 2.751137147 12.16260089 20.22530788 20.95398631 12.38150759
2002 Q4 5.759543375 2.665088665 12.38802395 21.11222898 20.69224342 12.88164942
2003 Q1 5.931386586 3.243796482 12.11812545 20.33831903 21.00437455 13.19553592
2003 Q2 5.959235584 3.694074535 11.70071007 19.60676122 22.35262746 14.02211935
2003 Q3 5.652335567 4.512898263 11.16436349 18.71829312 21.63139606 13.50692573
2003 Q4 5.52646609 4.639374481 10.94584974 17.68713585 21.67938515 13.53385069
2004 Q1 5.625240267 4.502791856 11.1122481 16.96957291 23.19950894 14.03742657
2004 Q2 5.628632478 5.404714139 10.73235239 16.20367362 23.48794857 14.41923144
2004 Q3 5.84038459 4.790575279 10.61307083 15.61799345 25.32889938 14.66919895
2004 Q4 5.70725447 5.431470934 11.13602799 15.58378415 24.21782177 15.14410661
2005 Q1 5.735068367 6.015867337 11.24394034 14.8429203 25.3896776 15.04202804
2005 Q2 5.705392256 6.640554282 11.567792 14.67697483 26.75692271 15.15643072
2005 Q3 5.668798089 6.121539204 11.84608041 14.80197053 27.65551836 15.2811488
2005 Q4 5.720781677 5.605400518 12.30917058 15.43908371 26.57885895 15.77717409
2006 Q1 5.672952186 5.609383076 12.48319738 15.14636927 28.21433887 15.49262021
2006 Q2 5.792273148 6.256856347 12.82754789 15.44611058 28.48357291 15.76425978
2006 Q3 6.260066327 7.032810148 13.44353043 16.01712234 30.68660669 15.46617993
2006 Q4 6.591825614 7.598828176 13.94285159 17.01581804 29.68380481 16.26198807
2007 Q1 6.907947504 8.563617828 14.09271353 17.03020129 32.28164435 15.39487663
2007 Q2 7.144532861 8.724578822 14.64643855 17.58018033 32.42716243 15.24456781
2007 Q3 7.415937375 7.53329542 12.7525204 19.6019845 32.20021343 15.21393567
2007 Q4 7.881703123 7.738684775 12.15144406 21.37876026 30.48881809 16.05890309
2008 Q1 8.399677151 6.335236544 12.13195071 23.92063875 32.82501524 16.0681219
2008 Q2 8.879437846 12.04175264 11.75891432 23.3519432 29.87558959 15.50576409
2008 Q3 8.462601857 6.795510307 10.43579491 23.17297218 29.96246541 16.37606903
2008 Q4 8.374945971 6.528987028 10.94794755 26.28017747 21.75718917 12.19275287
2009 Q1 8.169126232 5.396391991 9.867138526 26.75176013 22.06374073 12.12707469
2009 Q2 8.04853469 6.13221963 8.892135211 25.83533877 21.92090492 12.12732653
2009 Q3 7.639384 5.986490983 8.092591111 23.78316107 22.45296651 8.176508483
2009 Q4 6.750977778 5.802754997 7.7629839 22.55087081 20.31820335 8.666236433
2010 Q1 6.577262923 5.667992165 7.321412175 20.24244996 22.61661267 12.21509811
2010 Q2 6.225724782 5.607811422 6.862702106 18.82050493 22.83174687 12.2369495
2010 Q3 6.352930454 5.223349749 6.938307035 18.56772756 22.71233602 13.66544192
2010 Q4 6.21294082 5.100097669 6.907175476 18.4015239 22.33364778 9.532294565
2011 Q1 5.888152461 5.049772599 7.368785411 17.84419746 23.16307479 9.612799234
2011 Q2 5.475576953 5.19918477 6.952245471 17.27356553 23.26761397 10.09778261
2011 Q3 5.191573337 4.597403436 6.419072412 16.83771567 23.89675404 10.37504756
2011 Q4 5.216754129 4.161588604 6.118013253 17.02980338 23.5874966 10.46071626
2012 Q1 5.216815416 4.170740969 6.188250169 16.22398769 23.62756829 10.53835685
2012 Q2 5.204015107 4.190970412 5.935807184 15.66507425 23.95031352 10.59932157
2012 Q3 5.138391106 4.042344433 5.865563436 15.7936318 23.97194308 10.4764862
2012 Q4 5.082099938 3.600305261 5.799784395 16.24939907 24.07631333 11.90151175
2013 Q1 5.023286937 3.711661155 6.020638508 15.81207004 22.88838124 20.08509916
2013 Q2 4.76890954 3.9098418 5.931608592 15.5539928 21.91025559 20.08931375
2013 Q3 4.552701196 4.096346978 5.776666477 15.93464739 21.07261353 20.85771117
2013 Q4 5.878079422 3.809867975 5.554349289 15.73153567 19.05673686 21.46555505
2014 Q1 6.003073542 4.285300859 5.787311776 15.41556628 19.27677659 21.52733632
2014 Q2 5.991144752 4.26423117 5.758094734 14.64193746 18.53158821 21.96372581
2014 Q3 5.88203039 4.21698928 5.613984366 14.60418068 17.99120565 22.16040629
2014 Q4 5.59312789 3.949130037 5.211510653 15.2715359 17.4460045 22.69963778
2015 Q1 5.516637899 3.945896566 5.295295313 14.90355273 17.66570431 22.79279439
2015 Q2 5.279300836 3.751297083 5.379739197 14.29930709 16.95069866 22.6033577
2015 Q3 5.233453202 3.623103067 5.414678355 14.57540719 17.24478077 22.54249588
2015 Q4 5.380996718 3.542315113 5.13576764 15.04747539 16.1981719 22.96688829
2016 Q1 5.174446199 3.593047677 5.542030001 15.00923809 16.42932454 23.09123317
2016 Q2 5.258470992 3.510065941 5.458402527 14.60424979 17.14291263 23.26322377
2016 Q3 5.248689818 3.331742717 4.853777315 14.27614073 17.07301335 23.83718043
2016 Q4 5.35105821 3.069267895 4.665057373 14.38861795 16.11990467 24.04019273
2017 Q1 5.321580191 3.19793695 4.892755024 13.85462159 16.29792104 23.82661315
2017 Q2 5.197281552 3.404557827 4.79043023 13.56923778 16.74116204 23.65147335
2017 Q3 5.284991718 3.423848276 5.022625926 14.01160599 16.20616527 23.70179954
2017 Q4 5.289248809 3.297999017 4.858093264 14.32107324 16.25151337 23.85306115
2018 Q1 5.147837299 3.309071709 5.204977831 14.04513435 15.78912066 23.44020837
2018 Q2 5.19031163 3.337173415 5.131259533 13.78576125 15.7469186 22.78330852
2018 Q3 5.222351924 3.177437203 5.060965616 13.95731554 15.67589918 22.9106723
2018 Q4 5.224631789 2.885459183 4.7852566 14.6008676 17.43371561 23.307637
2019 Q1 5.114648572 3.838185484 5.100713356 14.76777649 18.21181197 22.60644391
2019 Q2 5.059574881 3.047497819 5.121866844 14.99487418 18.54563406 22.67712743
2019 Q3 5.103953106 2.895836561 4.998402151 16.00876639 19.67942403 23.18875539
2019 Q4 5.178993901 2.666256943 4.818041764 16.61434496 18.68533489 23.73779127

*On September 7, 2022, the data in Chart 4-3 were updated on the accessible version to fix a coding error.

The black striped area denotes the period from 2008:Q4 to 2012:Q4 when insured deposits increased because of the Transaction Account Guarantee program. "Other" consists of variable-rate demand obligations, federal funds, funding-agreement-backed securities, private liquidity funds, offshore money market funds, and local government investment pools. Securities lending includes only lending collateralized by cash. GDP is gross domestic product. Values for variable-rate demand obligations come from Bloomberg beginning in 2019:Q1. See Jack Bao, Josh David, and Song Han (2015), "The Runnables," FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 3), https://dx.doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1595.

Source: Securities and Exchange Commission, Private Funds Statistics; iMoneyNet, Inc., Offshore Money Fund Analyzer; Bloomberg FinanceL.P.; Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association: U.S. Municipal VR DO Update; Risk Management Association, Securities Lending Report; DTCC Solutions LLC, an affiliate of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation: Commercial Paper data; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Investment Company Institute data; Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release H.6, "Money Stock and Debt Measures" (M3 monetary aggregate); Federal Reserve Board, Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States"; Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report); Moody's Analytics, Inc., CreditView, ABCP Program Index; Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross domestic product via Haver Analytics.

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4-4. Domestic Money Market Fund Assets

Billions of dollars (real)

Period Government-only Tax-exempt Retail prime Institutional prime
Jan 2000 501.52 318.75 1070.42 648.84
Feb 2000 499.95 319.89 1083.06 655.71
Mar 2000 493.77 326.74 1103.06 639.26
Apr 2000 485.40 308.13 1069.87 625.76
May 2000 487.93 320.11 1071.02 648.20
Jun 2000 486.83 315.51 1045.22 640.55
Jul 2000 486.20 322.94 1059.64 672.59
Aug 2000 492.65 327.65 1067.10 701.84
Sep 2000 491.75 322.33 1063.01 695.37
Oct 2000 498.56 329.88 1065.59 722.52
Nov 2000 515.97 339.72 1087.16 763.20
Dec 2000 546.76 347.68 1087.78 761.02
Jan 2001 549.27 347.26 1118.09 873.02
Feb 2001 562.21 357.31 1142.60 907.94
Mar 2001 572.39 358.46 1179.06 878.33
Apr 2001 557.97 342.99 1140.20 929.37
May 2001 568.94 352.77 1117.06 975.84
Jun 2001 570.42 351.25 1104.29 956.77
Jul 2001 573.68 362.03 1123.79 956.77
Aug 2001 586.81 362.27 1131.17 981.93
Sep 2001 611.33 359.81 1151.65 1013.21
Oct 2001 625.01 369.78 1154.42 1111.00
Nov 2001 645.69 380.24 1150.66 1186.52
Dec 2001 675.80 379.28 1136.21 1154.15
Jan 2002 646.82 385.42 1135.03 1196.98
Feb 2002 645.45 388.89 1135.74 1178.07
Mar 2002 628.14 387.34 1107.79 1128.69
Apr 2002 611.65 372.98 1079.44 1146.17
May 2002 611.42 381.95 1062.87 1153.02
Jun 2002 609.77 376.02 1060.96 1103.25
Jul 2002 618.39 385.64 1091.51 1132.41
Aug 2002 612.37 382.97 1069.05 1099.97
Sep 2002 603.24 377.93 1057.49 1045.71
Oct 2002 605.73 385.87 1050.54 1055.88
Nov 2002 623.43 399.52 1040.51 1220.44
Dec 2002 647.99 395.09 1024.27 1171.59
Jan 2003 616.77 404.28 1025.89 1179.60
Feb 2003 608.73 404.97 1018.00 1118.72
Mar 2003 600.00 402.81 1009.06 1076.07
Apr 2003 587.72 396.48 984.38 1058.36
May 2003 584.13 405.67 972.99 1044.94
Jun 2003 594.25 412.62 958.88 1072.50
Jul 2003 587.23 416.00 952.61 1061.97
Aug 2003 582.11 413.71 942.97 1049.29
Sep 2003 565.47 404.91 924.25 1025.06
Oct 2003 556.01 406.57 897.10 1032.64
Nov 2003 561.35 412.73 886.19 1028.45
Dec 2003 575.52 407.44 851.60 1027.87
Jan 2004 546.39 421.17 838.06 1016.98
Feb 2004 539.59 420.43 821.38 999.87
Mar 2004 530.09 413.69 806.52 1000.20
Apr 2004 519.92 399.75 786.03 976.46
May 2004 518.35 404.05 793.65 966.03
Jun 2004 514.44 406.69 776.03 950.81
Jul 2004 506.03 413.32 772.97 958.83
Aug 2004 507.46 413.91 771.23 945.48
Sep 2004 496.60 405.41 754.56 920.91
Oct 2004 488.14 412.07 743.55 902.42
Nov 2004 503.85 424.21 737.79 918.59
Dec 2004 516.14 424.11 727.13 917.64
Jan 2005 484.98 431.97 740.63 893.36
Feb 2005 475.56 434.19 727.62 877.22
Mar 2005 472.71 428.39 727.59 867.12
Apr 2005 462.43 409.84 719.63 840.79
May 2005 468.21 422.55 712.92 853.42
Jun 2005 472.76 429.06 703.17 860.65
Jul 2005 464.66 435.34 702.10 877.85
Aug 2005 481.66 433.15 706.59 897.50
Sep 2005 470.70 419.18 703.54 881.31
Oct 2005 472.45 425.01 713.71 885.62
Nov 2005 488.12 436.71 717.22 947.47
Dec 2005 524.89 442.14 718.78 978.29
Jan 2006 489.84 452.42 721.58 978.96
Feb 2006 488.06 458.21 728.66 971.68
Mar 2006 491.52 449.25 731.59 960.96
Apr 2006 478.86 433.25 728.36 941.14
May 2006 490.45 438.39 747.50 963.89
Jun 2006 493.92 436.34 765.19 974.70
Jul 2006 496.32 447.38 771.52 988.79
Aug 2006 495.98 449.46 779.57 1034.30
Sep 2006 509.99 448.11 794.98 1046.33
Oct 2006 509.13 454.12 806.67 1087.96
Nov 2006 534.36 464.48 818.36 1124.88
Dec 2006 547.14 473.04 825.68 1151.69
Jan 2007 533.57 479.31 830.00 1143.11
Feb 2007 538.04 485.94 834.09 1171.62
Mar 2007 537.24 486.29 840.11 1182.01
Apr 2007 530.71 469.09 827.58 1187.05
May 2007 549.68 486.74 844.13 1195.92
Jun 2007 564.75 490.86 852.11 1213.66
Jul 2007 589.24 507.87 867.45 1253.05
Aug 2007 740.35 526.56 884.08 1278.86
Sep 2007 759.70 527.93 884.19 1340.39
Oct 2007 775.15 541.86 893.85 1431.16
Nov 2007 872.36 553.72 916.94 1397.44
Dec 2007 936.49 576.18 930.25 1357.16
Jan 2008 991.40 590.13 980.07 1449.12
Feb 2008 1090.31 574.72 993.68 1465.93
Mar 2008 1154.95 593.87 995.79 1422.67
Apr 2008 1112.89 580.31 964.46 1429.63
May 2008 1099.80 604.86 944.63 1467.75
Jun 2008 1040.34 590.81 917.76 1443.65
Jul 2008 1067.75 590.29 929.91 1481.27
Aug 2008 1084.74 600.80 924.41 1517.05
Sep 2008 1497.58 558.18 887.42 1100.80
Oct 2008 1692.93 585.02 899.46 1110.08
Nov 2008 1785.60 598.40 933.10 1212.16
Dec 2008 1833.64 607.45 957.13 1317.20
Jan 2009 1815.42 598.31 972.28 1385.71
Feb 2009 1776.65 585.82 975.12 1405.26
Mar 2009 1705.09 585.41 977.49 1370.11
Apr 2009 1662.81 565.02 948.50 1423.66
May 2009 1636.72 564.16 921.36 1436.05
Jun 2009 1535.67 544.55 886.72 1414.18
Jul 2009 1501.99 535.53 845.16 1448.81
Aug 2009 1443.43 529.43 825.68 1458.79
Sep 2009 1398.79 501.54 803.45 1399.08
Oct 2009 1330.13 492.22 779.72 1416.95
Nov 2009 1306.23 485.59 767.72 1402.23
Dec 2009 1326.08 477.87 755.92 1412.13
Jan 2010 1244.81 461.52 737.94 1394.11
Feb 2010 1197.15 451.85 735.58 1361.74
Mar 2010 1115.19 435.53 712.09 1283.76
Apr 2010 1037.55 421.39 688.65 1243.09
May 2010 1055.45 418.92 702.32 1185.38
Jun 2010 1056.48 413.21 693.08 1176.05
Jul 2010 1015.34 407.77 686.25 1222.04
Aug 2010 1018.65 399.89 681.14 1250.13
Sep 2010 1005.01 389.65 672.51 1244.57
Oct 2010 980.71 384.64 663.23 1266.88
Nov 2010 991.91 384.48 659.65 1287.77
Dec 2010 1009.11 389.48 664.47 1245.69
Jan 2011 940.87 381.49 651.64 1230.06
Feb 2011 930.21 378.11 646.71 1248.19
Mar 2011 920.82 366.35 636.33 1233.08
Apr 2011 893.34 351.90 625.35 1266.90
May 2011 888.68 351.28 625.26 1256.00
Jun 2011 946.99 345.63 626.95 1158.76
Jul 2011 886.38 341.44 630.53 1081.58
Aug 2011 985.73 337.15 639.47 1052.40
Sep 2011 1016.97 327.62 631.09 1021.54
Oct 2011 1022.56 325.79 627.36 1006.03
Nov 2011 1074.54 325.04 625.00 1008.93
Dec 2011 1111.95 334.36 631.01 1007.16
Jan 2012 1066.05 330.76 616.78 1016.81
Feb 2012 1036.50 326.95 608.12 1042.38
Mar 2012 998.37 318.80 596.22 997.89
Apr 2012 983.91 306.64 585.52 999.36
May 2012 981.69 305.69 583.45 1010.05
Jun 2012 984.04 301.70 579.58 968.06
Jul 2012 982.28 305.07 579.47 1010.88
Aug 2012 973.49 301.91 577.03 1016.07
Sep 2012 966.65 298.79 577.25 1008.88
Oct 2012 963.49 296.90 575.51 1013.17
Nov 2012 989.18 304.36 586.04 1060.18
Dec 2012 1046.37 323.83 609.29 1054.76
Jan 2013 1036.52 315.43 589.15 1074.27
Feb 2013 1011.13 309.62 580.97 1052.02
Mar 2013 990.28 302.87 578.39 1010.56
Apr 2013 987.46 288.15 573.55 1008.72
May 2013 1010.66 285.60 575.73 1014.81
Jun 2013 1000.72 288.70 594.39 977.81
Jul 2013 1015.60 291.94 587.51 995.15
Aug 2013 1014.77 293.42 595.39 1006.06
Sep 2013 1054.43 291.29 595.50 1017.78
Oct 2013 1027.67 291.20 590.40 1046.12
Nov 2013 1034.62 291.04 588.75 1052.06
Dec 2013 1067.80 300.37 594.40 1054.11
Jan 2014 1053.77 297.26 585.54 1057.92
Feb 2014 1032.09 295.56 578.53 1025.16
Mar 2014 1010.76 294.93 572.33 1002.13
Apr 2014 989.57 280.27 562.44 975.26
May 2014 997.02 278.44 560.82 965.63
Jun 2014 998.74 274.82 553.01 951.57
Jul 2014 977.68 277.24 553.26 953.75
Aug 2014 1004.33 278.23 559.58 964.80
Sep 2014 1042.73 275.89 561.84 948.84
Oct 2014 1047.65 273.65 563.14 973.01
Nov 2014 1062.26 275.88 561.52 997.69
Dec 2014 1113.52 287.29 569.95 1030.80
Jan 2015 1097.39 286.97 563.65 1031.13
Feb 2015 1074.41 285.29 555.23 1036.27
Mar 2015 1065.70 281.61 551.19 998.92
Apr 2015 1045.87 266.11 536.99 954.97
May 2015 1045.72 265.67 537.24 981.89
Jun 2015 1069.64 261.75 536.93 966.39
Jul 2015 1088.81 265.47 539.49 994.50
Aug 2015 1084.58 268.51 553.71 994.38
Sep 2015 1087.39 264.68 558.05 989.97
Oct 2015 1107.04 266.40 556.82 1022.19
Nov 2015 1173.57 269.18 538.89 982.22
Dec 2015 1341.63 278.81 447.94 944.37
Jan 2016 1350.07 269.58 506.68 860.90
Feb 2016 1393.02 261.12 498.82 873.33
Mar 2016 1413.04 244.73 479.40 859.69
Apr 2016 1427.51 231.68 448.49 829.80
May 2016 1463.41 224.24 425.65 804.87
Jun 2016 1586.47 206.89 388.56 707.51
Jul 2016 1672.97 196.41 375.15 665.55
Aug 2016 1883.58 162.94 332.44 547.39
Sep 2016 2177.77 137.66 288.72 258.15
Oct 2016 2312.73 137.13 267.62 134.67
Nov 2016 2375.92 139.33 270.14 132.18
Dec 2016 2380.59 139.57 270.94 131.91
Jan 2017 2308.59 138.92 267.26 141.60
Feb 2017 2288.66 138.13 267.12 153.98
Mar 2017 2268.81 137.74 270.39 149.98
Apr 2017 2236.78 135.03 266.11 156.66
May 2017 2240.77 136.43 265.05 163.34
Jun 2017 2209.62 135.66 265.84 169.79
Jul 2017 2217.54 137.62 267.53 174.57
Aug 2017 2271.07 135.35 272.35 185.75
Sep 2017 2283.94 133.32 274.36 188.10
Oct 2017 2272.81 134.31 275.86 189.62
Nov 2017 2319.24 134.87 278.97 198.55
Dec 2017 2372.21 137.59 282.63 195.25
Jan 2018 2301.23 143.38 273.86 203.14
Feb 2018 2336.92 141.27 273.72 201.97
Mar 2018 2289.59 137.97 271.72 195.75
Apr 2018 2276.26 136.29 269.71 201.00
May 2018 2314.20 142.70 271.71 202.59
Jun 2018 2272.30 139.33 280.19 203.57
Jul 2018 2265.01 134.71 294.09 216.63
Aug 2018 2264.93 134.24 309.26 232.84
Sep 2018 2259.32 134.51 315.34 225.14
Oct 2018 2271.16 137.24 320.70 221.88
Nov 2018 2336.15 142.57 333.36 231.30
Dec 2018 2395.33 149.58 356.44 225.69
Jan 2019 2371.72 144.61 370.20 243.09
Feb 2019 2380.55 141.51 383.04 257.84
Mar 2019 2354.06 140.91 390.93 247.61
Apr 2019 2322.36 134.92 391.30 259.49
May 2019 2387.81 137.02 400.21 266.90
Jun 2019 2419.47 137.71 409.50 266.45
Jul 2019 2467.49 136.90 421.33 280.76
Aug 2019 2534.98 135.64 427.39 293.60
Sep 2019 2615.48 136.34 440.40 296.59
Oct 2019 2639.13 138.05 451.08 302.88
Nov 2019 2677.46 139.30 461.59 318.69
Dec 2019 2739.16 138.55 467.74 310.19
Jan 2020 2696.80 137.29 473.46 323.48
Feb 2020 2682.63 136.71 475.09 322.78

The data are converted to constant 2020 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations based on Investment Company Institute data; Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

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4-5. U.S Corporate Bonds Held By Mutual Funds

Billions of dollars (real)

Period Corporate bond amount
2000:Q1 421.94
2000:Q2 411.24
2000:Q3 402.80
2000:Q4 376.80
2001:Q1 385.02
2001:Q2 390.35
2001:Q3 390.23
2001:Q4 387.23
2002:Q1 405.70
2002:Q2 409.96
2002:Q3 396.44
2002:Q4 405.24
2003:Q1 408.58
2003:Q2 450.47
2003:Q3 452.04
2003:Q4 459.52
2004:Q1 490.15
2004:Q2 429.92
2004:Q3 432.99
2004:Q4 443.18
2005:Q1 424.95
2005:Q2 428.69
2005:Q3 410.87
2005:Q4 402.37
2006:Q1 417.34
2006:Q2 408.20
2006:Q3 421.64
2006:Q4 446.89
2007:Q1 452.88
2007:Q2 445.55
2007:Q3 459.79
2007:Q4 456.43
2008:Q1 449.03
2008:Q2 480.46
2008:Q3 430.17
2008:Q4 401.16
2009:Q1 426.33
2009:Q2 507.00
2009:Q3 585.18
2009:Q4 677.06
2010:Q1 756.12
2010:Q2 763.37
2010:Q3 862.02
2010:Q4 898.38
2011:Q1 941.42
2011:Q2 947.07
2011:Q3 912.32
2011:Q4 920.09
2012:Q1 987.23
2012:Q2 1000.54
2012:Q3 1080.91
2012:Q4 1117.36
2013:Q1 1168.35
2013:Q2 1141.97
2013:Q3 1188.62
2013:Q4 1237.72
2014:Q1 1273.94
2014:Q2 1317.03
2014:Q3 1303.55
2014:Q4 1307.91
2015:Q1 1353.10
2015:Q2 1365.12
2015:Q3 1342.56
2015:Q4 1308.09
2016:Q1 1340.30
2016:Q2 1381.62
2016:Q3 1427.89
2016:Q4 1397.97
2017:Q1 1440.63
2017:Q2 1456.47
2017:Q3 1473.33
2017:Q4 1467.51
2018:Q1 1483.57
2018:Q2 1479.84
2018:Q3 1494.97
2018:Q4 1433.19
2019:Q1 1508.42
2019:Q2 1547.18
2019:Q3 1568.80
2019:Q4 1620.51

Note: The data are converted to constant 2019 dollars using the consumer price index.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff estimates based on Federal Reserve Board Statistical Release Z.1, "Financial Accounts of the United States"; Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index, via Haver Analytics.

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4-6. Bank Loan and High-Yield Bond Mutual Fund Assets

Figure 4-6: This is a stacked line chart titled “Bank Loan and High-Yield Bond Mutual Fund Assets.” The x-axis measures time and ranges from 2000 to 2020. The y-axis is in billions of dollars and ranges from 0 to 525. The data are monthly. Bank loan mutual funds are represented in maroon. The series begins around 30 and decreases to around 15 in June 2003. It then increases, reaching 45 in June 2007. It then decreases to 17 in December 2009 before increasing steadily to 160 in March of 2014. The series decreases to 100 in March of 2016 and rises to 140 in October 2018. It then decreases steadily to 80 in February 2020 and drops sharply to 60 by March of 2020. High-yield bond mutual funds are represented in tan. The series begins around 150 and remains at that level until 2008 when it rises steeply to 300 by January 2014. It then decreases slightly to 250 through February 2020 before dropping sharply to 220 by March 2020.

Note: The data are converted to constant 2019 dollars using the consumer price index. Key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Morningstar, Inc., Morningstar Direct; Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics.

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4-7. Mutual Fund Net Flows

Figure 4-7: This is a stacked bar chart titled “Mutual Fund Net Flows”. The x-axis ranges from February 2017 to March 2020, with labels for February, May, November and August of each year. The y-axis is in percent of lagged assets and ranges from -25 to 15. The data are monthly. Bank loan mutual funds are represented in maroon. It begins around 4 percent and decrease until August 2017 to about -0.4 percent. It then increases to about -0.2 percent in September 2017, decreases until November 2017 to about -2 percent, and then increases until May 2018 where it reaches about 2.5 percent. It then decreases again until July 2018 to about 1 percent, increases slightly in August, and then begins to decline slightly in September and October. In December 2018, it decreases dramatically to -10 percent. It rises slightly to around -3 percent and stays level through December. In January 2020 it increased to about zero before declining slightly in February and sharply to -13 in March. High-yield bond mutual funds are represented in tan. The bar begins around 0 percent and decreases to -3 in March 2017. The series stays negative and drops to -2 in November of 2017. The series increases to -.6 in January 2018, drops sharply to -.4 in February and increases to .4 in April before dropping again to -1.2 in May. The series increases to .4 in September and drops sharply to -2 percent in November. It remains negative before increasing to about 1 in January and February 2019. It remains around zero through 2019 with sharp drops of -1.5 in May and August. In February of 2020, there is a slight drop of -1 and in March there is a large drop of -4. Investment-grade bond mutual funds are shown in blue. The series is stable around zero for the duration of the chart with small movements in the range of -1 to 1 through 2018 and 2019. In March of 2020, there is a large drop of -4.

Source: Investment Company Institute.

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4-8. Nontraditional Liabilities of U.S. Life Insurers, by Liability Type

Billions of dollars(real)

Period FHLB advances Funding-agreement-backed securities
2006:Q1 10.58 193.75
2006:Q2 10.77 190.94
2006:Q3 11.49 190.31
2006:Q4 12.81 194.89
2007:Q1 13.93 195.94
2007:Q2 17.36 196.94
2007:Q3 24.06 199.80
2007:Q4 27.72 197.22
2008:Q1 31.36 199.25
2008:Q2 32.36 200.93
2008:Q3 41.07 182.27
2008:Q4 58.44 173.62
2009:Q1 58.92 154.87
2009:Q2 55.48 141.41
2009:Q3 51.93 128.94
2009:Q4 52.57 118.20
2010:Q1 51.80 115.66
2010:Q2 50.20 107.29
2010:Q3 50.12 104.86
2010:Q4 49.59 102.60
2011:Q1 50.27 95.87
2011:Q2 49.38 90.73
2011:Q3 49.38 84.93
2011:Q4 49.82 84.67
2012:Q1 50.76 81.72
2012:Q2 54.16 83.33
2012:Q3 53.78 84.38
2012:Q4 52.31 80.88
2013:Q1 53.01 80.28
2013:Q2 54.00 71.75
2013:Q3 52.86 68.10
2013:Q4 53.73 66.26
2014:Q1 52.77 61.75
2014:Q2 53.01 65.12
2014:Q3 53.48 70.45
2014:Q4 54.41 74.46
2015:Q1 57.02 75.50
2015:Q2 58.10 72.98
2015:Q3 59.39 69.49
2015:Q4 60.36 74.60
2016:Q1 63.44 73.00
2016:Q2 66.75 74.19
2016:Q3 69.42 75.14
2016:Q4 69.99 79.20
2017:Q1 71.96 80.86
2017:Q2 71.73 84.46
2017:Q3 71.64 90.72
2017:Q4 73.81 89.60
2018:Q1 78.59 90.32
2018:Q2 78.02 90.93
2018:Q3 76.52 91.96
2018:Q4 79.00 89.60
2019:Q1 80.87 92.62
2019:Q2 79.99 90.25
2019:Q3 82.35 91.21
2019:Q4 85.04 92.73

The data are converted to constant 2019 dollars using the consumer price index. FHLB is Federal Home Loan Bank. Key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics; Moody's Analytics, Inc., CreditView, ABCP Program Index; Securities and Exchange Commission, Forms 10-Q and 10-K; National Association of Insurance Commissioners, quarterly and annual statutory filings accessed via the S&P Global Market Intelligence platform; Bloomberg Finance L.P.

4-8. Nontraditional Liabilities of U.S. Life Insurers, by Liability Type

Billions of dollars(real)

Period Repurchase agreements Securities lending
2011:Q1 7.02 53.66
2011:Q2 7.73 52.95
2011:Q3 7.78 50.93
2011:Q4 8.08 48.44
2012:Q1 9.21 47.50
2012:Q2 11.87 54.56
2012:Q3 12.61 62.12
2012:Q4 12.55 60.73
2013:Q1 14.80 60.15
2013:Q2 14.75 61.17
2013:Q3 14.21 56.47
2013:Q4 12.69 62.17
2014:Q1 14.95 63.47
2014:Q2 14.99 65.64
2014:Q3 16.50 68.80
2014:Q4 12.61 59.55
2015:Q1 12.11 59.89
2015:Q2 11.73 55.52
2015:Q3 11.75 55.01
2015:Q4 9.33 54.16
2016:Q1 11.37 56.35
2016:Q2 12.81 58.23
2016:Q3 13.64 59.41
2016:Q4 10.34 51.44
2017:Q1 13.63 53.30
2017:Q2 13.82 53.11
2017:Q3 15.12 54.07
2017:Q4 13.10 51.31
2018:Q1 12.87 53.93
2018:Q2 14.91 47.03
2018:Q3 13.69 47.75
2018:Q4 13.49 43.25
2019:Q1 16.93 46.20
2019:Q2 16.15 45.85
2019:Q3 14.58 45.87
2019:Q4 16.26 45.10

The data are converted to constant 2019 dollars using the consumer price index. FHLB is Federal Home Loan Bank. Key identifies series in order from top to bottom.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index via Haver Analytics; Moody's Analytics, Inc., CreditView, ABCP Program Index; Securities and Exchange Commission, Forms 10-Q and 10-K; National Association of Insurance Commissioners, quarterly and annual statutory filings accessed via the S&P Global Market Intelligence platform; Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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Most Cited Potential Shocks over Next 12–18 Months

Figure: The chart is titled “Most Cited Potential Shocks Over Next 12-18 Months.” The x-axis ranges from 0 to 100 percent and the data in each category is represented by blue bars. The categories on the left axis are listed in the following order from top to bottom: Coronavirus, Efficacy of global policy response, Corporate debt/Credit cycle turn, U.S. election, Market structure/liquidity, Geopolitical risks, Household/consumer debt, Euro area sovereign/banking risks, China slowdown, Valuations/ Reach-for-yield, Mutual fund/ETF outflows, U.S. or global recession, Trade frictions, Municipal stress, Funding market disruption, EM stress, and Declining asset quality. The categories are listed in order from the highest to the lowest percentage.

Note: Responses are to the following question: “Over the next 12–18 months, which shocks, if realized, do you think would have the greatest negative effect on the functioning of the U.S. financial system?”

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York phone survey of 22 market contacts from February to mid-April.

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Last Update: September 07, 2022