Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test Publications
Accessible version
Figure 1. Aggregate domestic deposits at stress tested banks
Billions of dollars
Make Full ScreenDate | Aggregate | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Noninterest-bearing deposits | Other interest-bearing deposits | Money market deposits and other savings accounts | Time deposits | |
3/31/2019 | 1,326.25 | 756.87 | 4,634.56 | 820.87 |
6/30/2019 | 1,333.77 | 794.59 | 4,651.51 | 820.82 |
9/30/2019 | 1,351.60 | 822.67 | 4,751.36 | 824.14 |
12/31/2019 | 1,402.79 | 853.79 | 4,985.69 | 836.55 |
3/31/2020 | 1,652.89 | 1,107.73 | 5,403.16 | 853.69 |
6/30/2020 | 1,933.27 | 1,391.42 | 5,599.92 | 729.84 |
9/30/2020 | 1,992.64 | 1,421.21 | 5,713.90 | 588.81 |
12/31/2020 | 2,477.02 | 1,934.68 | 5,260.97 | 518.92 |
3/31/2021 | 2,717.08 | 1,876.48 | 5,554.44 | 461.81 |
6/30/2021 | 2,899.22 | 1,957.02 | 5,513.06 | 439.87 |
9/30/2021 | 3,053.81 | 2,113.21 | 5,587.26 | 416.35 |
12/31/2021 | 3,117.29 | 2,166.25 | 5,815.17 | 401.19 |
3/31/2022 | 3,134.36 | 2,302.50 | 5,830.75 | 398.04 |
6/30/2022 | 3,167.43 | 2,328.26 | 5,461.89 | 460.95 |
9/30/2022 | 2,993.77 | 2,525.90 | 5,121.20 | 555.67 |
12/31/2022 | 2,794.01 | 2,613.32 | 5,041.36 | 724.07 |
3/31/2023 | 2,745.01 | 2,605.19 | 4,785.80 | 961.17 |
6/30/2023 | 2,560.00 | 2,709.85 | 4,609.77 | 1,184.43 |
9/30/2023 | 2,501.09 | 2,598.28 | 4,551.34 | 1,343.48 |
12/31/2023 | 2,428.18 | 2,655.03 | 4,556.00 | 1,445.11 |
3/31/2024 | 2,499.34 | 2,803.39 | 4,451.89 | 1,476.77 |
Note: Key identifies shaded areas in order from top to bottom.
Source: FR Y-9C.
Figure 2. Treasury rates and inflation under different stress test elements
Percent
Make Full ScreenDate | Vertical line | Consumer price index inflation rate | 10-Year Treasury rate | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual | Baseline | Funding stress, moderate stagflation | Funding stress, severe stagflation | Actual | Baseline | Funding stress, moderate stagflation | Funding stress, severe stagflation | ||
2020 Q4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | |||||||
2021 Q1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | |||||||
2021 Q2 | 7.5 | 1.6 | |||||||
2021 Q3 | 6.6 | 1.4 | |||||||
2021 Q4 | 8.8 | 1.6 | |||||||
2022 Q1 | 9.2 | 2 | |||||||
2022 Q2 | 9.7 | 3 | |||||||
2022 Q3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | |||||||
2022 Q4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | |||||||
2023 Q1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | |||||||
2023 Q2 | 2.7 | 3.7 | |||||||
2023 Q3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | |||||||
2023 Q4 | 1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
2024 Q1 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5 | |||
2024 Q2 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | |||
2024 Q3 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 6 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5 | |||
2024 Q4 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | |||
2025 Q1 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | |||
2025 Q2 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.6 | |||
2025 Q3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 4 | 4.6 | |||
2025 Q4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.5 | |||
2026 Q1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.5 | |||
2026 Q2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | |||
2026 Q3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | |||
2026 Q4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | |||
2027 Q1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for historical data and Federal Reserve assumptions for the baseline and funding stress elements.
Figure 3. Unemployment rate under different stress test elements
Percent
Make Full ScreenDate | Vertical line | Unemployment | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual | Baseline | Funding stress, moderate stagflation | Funding stress, severe stagflation | ||
2020 Q4 | 6.7 | ||||
2021 Q1 | 6.2 | ||||
2021 Q2 | 5.9 | ||||
2021 Q3 | 5.1 | ||||
2021 Q4 | 4.2 | ||||
2022 Q1 | 3.8 | ||||
2022 Q2 | 3.6 | ||||
2022 Q3 | 3.5 | ||||
2022 Q4 | 3.6 | ||||
2023 Q1 | 3.5 | ||||
2023 Q2 | 3.6 | ||||
2023 Q3 | 3.7 | ||||
2023 Q4 | 1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
2024 Q1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 | ||
2024 Q2 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | ||
2024 Q3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | ||
2024 Q4 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8.3 | ||
2025 Q1 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 9.1 | ||
2025 Q2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 9.7 | ||
2025 Q3 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 9.8 | ||
2025 Q4 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | ||
2026 Q1 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 9.5 | ||
2026 Q2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 9.0 | ||
2026 Q3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 8.5 | ||
2026 Q4 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 8.1 | ||
2027 Q1 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.8 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for historical data and Federal Reserve assumptions for the baseline and funding stress elements.
Figure 4. Minimum stressed CET1 ratio
Percentage points
Make Full ScreenElement | Ratio |
---|---|
Starting ratio | 12.7 |
Funding stress, severe stagflation | 10.0 |
Funding stress, moderate stagflation | 11.6 |
Figure 5. PPNR and provisions through 2026:Q1 under the funding stress elements, as a percent of risk-weighted assets
Basis points
Make Full ScreenElement | PPNR | Provisions |
---|---|---|
Funding stress, severe stagflation | 495.18 | 490.67 |
Funding stress, moderate stagflation | 538.19 | 283.22 |
Note: The key identifies bars in order from left to right.
Figure 6. Differences between exploratory market shocks
Text description: The chart shows how increases or decreases in three different components--U.S. dollar strength, Treasury rates, and commodity prices--are applied in each of the two hypothetical shock scenarios, using up or down arrows. "Market Shock 1: Interest rate stress" includes a decrease in U.S. dollar strength, while Treasury rates and commodity prices increase. "Market Shock 2: Recession with flight to quality" includes an increase in U.S. dollar strength, while Treasury rates and commodity prices decrease.
Figure 7. U.S. G-SIB losses by type and exploratory market shock, as a percent of risk-weighted assets
Basis points
Make Full ScreenLoss type | Market Shock 1: Interest rate stress | Market Shock 2: Recession with flight to quality |
---|---|---|
Hedge fund defaults | 31 | 19 |
Credit valuation adjustment | 21 | 24 |
Trading | 68 | 61 |
Note: The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.