Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test Publications
Accessible version
Figure 1. Aggregate domestic deposits at stress tested banks
Billions of dollars
| Date | Aggregate | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noninterest-bearing deposits | Other interest-bearing deposits | Money market deposits and other savings accounts | Time deposits | |
| 3/31/2019 | 1,326.25 | 756.87 | 4,634.56 | 820.87 |
| 6/30/2019 | 1,333.77 | 794.59 | 4,651.51 | 820.82 |
| 9/30/2019 | 1,351.60 | 822.67 | 4,751.36 | 824.14 |
| 12/31/2019 | 1,402.79 | 853.79 | 4,985.69 | 836.55 |
| 3/31/2020 | 1,652.89 | 1,107.73 | 5,403.16 | 853.69 |
| 6/30/2020 | 1,933.27 | 1,391.42 | 5,599.92 | 729.84 |
| 9/30/2020 | 1,992.64 | 1,421.21 | 5,713.90 | 588.81 |
| 12/31/2020 | 2,477.02 | 1,934.68 | 5,260.97 | 518.92 |
| 3/31/2021 | 2,717.08 | 1,876.48 | 5,554.44 | 461.81 |
| 6/30/2021 | 2,899.22 | 1,957.02 | 5,513.06 | 439.87 |
| 9/30/2021 | 3,053.81 | 2,113.21 | 5,587.26 | 416.35 |
| 12/31/2021 | 3,117.29 | 2,166.25 | 5,815.17 | 401.19 |
| 3/31/2022 | 3,134.36 | 2,302.50 | 5,830.75 | 398.04 |
| 6/30/2022 | 3,167.43 | 2,328.26 | 5,461.89 | 460.95 |
| 9/30/2022 | 2,993.77 | 2,525.90 | 5,121.20 | 555.67 |
| 12/31/2022 | 2,794.01 | 2,613.32 | 5,041.36 | 724.07 |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,745.01 | 2,605.19 | 4,785.80 | 961.17 |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,560.00 | 2,709.85 | 4,609.77 | 1,184.43 |
| 9/30/2023 | 2,501.09 | 2,598.28 | 4,551.34 | 1,343.48 |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,428.18 | 2,655.03 | 4,556.00 | 1,445.11 |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,499.34 | 2,803.39 | 4,451.89 | 1,476.77 |
Note: Key identifies shaded areas in order from top to bottom.
Source: FR Y-9C.
Figure 2. Treasury rates and inflation under different stress test elements
Percent
| Date | Vertical line | Consumer price index inflation rate | 10-Year Treasury rate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Baseline | Funding stress, moderate stagflation | Funding stress, severe stagflation | Actual | Baseline | Funding stress, moderate stagflation | Funding stress, severe stagflation | ||
| 2020 Q4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | |||||||
| 2021 Q1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | |||||||
| 2021 Q2 | 7.5 | 1.6 | |||||||
| 2021 Q3 | 6.6 | 1.4 | |||||||
| 2021 Q4 | 8.8 | 1.6 | |||||||
| 2022 Q1 | 9.2 | 2 | |||||||
| 2022 Q2 | 9.7 | 3 | |||||||
| 2022 Q3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | |||||||
| 2022 Q4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | |||||||
| 2023 Q1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | |||||||
| 2023 Q2 | 2.7 | 3.7 | |||||||
| 2023 Q3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | |||||||
| 2023 Q4 | 1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2024 Q1 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5 | |||
| 2024 Q2 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | |||
| 2024 Q3 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 6 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5 | |||
| 2024 Q4 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | |||
| 2025 Q1 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.7 | |||
| 2025 Q2 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.6 | |||
| 2025 Q3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 4 | 4.6 | |||
| 2025 Q4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.5 | |||
| 2026 Q1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.5 | |||
| 2026 Q2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | |||
| 2026 Q3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | |||
| 2026 Q4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | |||
| 2027 Q1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.4 | |||
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for historical data and Federal Reserve assumptions for the baseline and funding stress elements.
Figure 3. Unemployment rate under different stress test elements
Percent
| Date | Vertical line | Unemployment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Baseline | Funding stress, moderate stagflation | Funding stress, severe stagflation | ||
| 2020 Q4 | 6.7 | ||||
| 2021 Q1 | 6.2 | ||||
| 2021 Q2 | 5.9 | ||||
| 2021 Q3 | 5.1 | ||||
| 2021 Q4 | 4.2 | ||||
| 2022 Q1 | 3.8 | ||||
| 2022 Q2 | 3.6 | ||||
| 2022 Q3 | 3.5 | ||||
| 2022 Q4 | 3.6 | ||||
| 2023 Q1 | 3.5 | ||||
| 2023 Q2 | 3.6 | ||||
| 2023 Q3 | 3.7 | ||||
| 2023 Q4 | 1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| 2024 Q1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 | ||
| 2024 Q2 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | ||
| 2024 Q3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | ||
| 2024 Q4 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 8.3 | ||
| 2025 Q1 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 9.1 | ||
| 2025 Q2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 9.7 | ||
| 2025 Q3 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 9.8 | ||
| 2025 Q4 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | ||
| 2026 Q1 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 9.5 | ||
| 2026 Q2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 9.0 | ||
| 2026 Q3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 8.5 | ||
| 2026 Q4 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 8.1 | ||
| 2027 Q1 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 7.8 | ||
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics for historical data and Federal Reserve assumptions for the baseline and funding stress elements.
Figure 4. Minimum stressed CET1 ratio
Percentage points
| Element | Ratio |
|---|---|
| Starting ratio | 12.7 |
| Funding stress, severe stagflation | 10.0 |
| Funding stress, moderate stagflation | 11.6 |
Figure 5. PPNR and provisions through 2026:Q1 under the funding stress elements, as a percent of risk-weighted assets
Basis points
| Element | PPNR | Provisions |
|---|---|---|
| Funding stress, severe stagflation | 495.18 | 490.67 |
| Funding stress, moderate stagflation | 538.19 | 283.22 |
Note: The key identifies bars in order from left to right.
Figure 6. Differences between exploratory market shocks
Text description: The chart shows how increases or decreases in three different components--U.S. dollar strength, Treasury rates, and commodity prices--are applied in each of the two hypothetical shock scenarios, using up or down arrows. "Market Shock 1: Interest rate stress" includes a decrease in U.S. dollar strength, while Treasury rates and commodity prices increase. "Market Shock 2: Recession with flight to quality" includes an increase in U.S. dollar strength, while Treasury rates and commodity prices decrease.
Figure 7. U.S. G-SIB losses by type and exploratory market shock, as a percent of risk-weighted assets
Basis points
| Loss type | Market Shock 1: Interest rate stress | Market Shock 2: Recession with flight to quality |
|---|---|---|
| Hedge fund defaults | 31 | 19 |
| Credit valuation adjustment | 21 | 24 |
| Trading | 68 | 61 |
Note: The key identifies bars in order from top to bottom.