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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible Version

Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on October 30-31, 2007.

Chart 1: Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2007 through 2010. Actual data for years 2002 through 2006. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.

Real GDP Growth
Percent
  2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.5
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.2

Unemployment Rate
Percent
  2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 5.9 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.5 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6

PCE Inflation
Percent
  2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 1.8 1.9 3.1 3.2 1.9 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 3.2 2.3 2.2 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 3.0 2.1 2.0 1.9
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.9 1.8 1.7 1.6
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.7 1.7 1.5 1.5

Core PCE Inflation
Percent
  2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5

Chart 2(a): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms.

Real GDP Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 1.6-1.7 1.8-1.9 2.0-2.1 2.2-2.3 2.4-2.5 2.6-2.7 2.8-2.9 3.0-3.1
2007
   October 0 0 0 3 13 1 0 0
   June 0 0 3 9 4 1 0 0
2008
   October 3 1 3 4 4 2 0 0
   June 0 0 0 0 7 5 3 2
2009
   October 0 0 1 3 8 4 1 0
2010
   October 0 0 0 2 9 6 0 0

Unemployment Rate Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 4.4-4.5 4.6-4.7 4.8-4.9 5.0-5.1 5.2-5.3
2007
   October 0 8 9 0 0
   June 0 15 2 0 0
2008
   October 0 1 13 3 0
   June 1 7 8 1 0
2009
   October 0 2 12 3 0
2010
   October 0 4 10 3 0

Chart 2(b): Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms.

PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 1.5-1.6 1.7-1.8 1.9-2.0 2.1-2.2 2.3-2.4 2.5-2.6 2.7-2.8 2.9-3.0 3.1-3.2
2007
   October 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 3
2008
   October 0 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0
2009
   October 2 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0
2010
   October 4 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

Core PCE Inflation Projections
Number of Participants
Projections 1.3-1.4 1.5-1.6 1.7-1.8 1.9-2.0 2.1-2.2 2.3-2.4
2007
   October 0 0 7 8 2 0
   June 0 0 0 9 8 0
2008
   October 0 0 9 8 0 0
   June 0 0 6 8 3 0
2009
   October 0 2 9 6 0 0
2010
   October 0 4 8 5 0 0

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Last update: January 17, 2008