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Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2011 through 2013 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2005 through 2009. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.

Change in real GDP
Percent

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Longer Run
Actual	2.4	2.3	(2.8)	0.2	2.8	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	3.0	4.0	4.5	3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.9	3.7	4.2	2.8
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.7	3.3	3.5	2.5
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.5	2.2	3.0	2.4

Unemployment rate
Percent

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Longer Run
Actual	4.5	4.8	6.9	10.0	9.6	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	9.1	8.7	8.3	6.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	8.9	8.2	7.5	5.6
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	8.6	7.8	7.0	5.2
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	8.4	7.5	6.5	5.0

PCE inflation
Percent

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Longer Run
Actual	1.9	3.5	1.7	1.5	1.1	-	-	-	-
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	3.5	2.8	2.5	2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	2.3	1.5	1.5	1.7
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.1	1.2	1.3	1.5

Core PCE inflation
Percent

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Longer Run
Actual	2.3	2.4	2.0	1.7	0.8	-	-	-	n.a.
Upper End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	2.3	2.5	2.5	n.a.
Upper End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.8	2.0	2.0	n.a.
Lower End of Central Tendency	-	-	-	-	-	1.5	1.4	1.4	n.a.
Lower End of Range	-	-	-	-	-	1.5	1.2	1.3	n.a.

 

Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range	2011		2012		2013		Longer Run
	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections
2.2 - 2.3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2.4 - 2.5	2	0	0	0	0	0	10	10
2.6 - 2.7	7	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
2.8 - 2.9	6	1	0	1	0	0	4	3
3.0 - 3.1	2	4	1	0	1	1	1	2
3.2 - 3.3	0	10	2	1	2	1	0	0
3.4 - 3.5	0	1	7	3	3	3	0	0
3.6 - 3.7	0	1	3	4	2	1	0	0
3.8 - 3.9	0	0	2	2	2	3	0	0
4.0 - 4.1	0	0	1	2	3	2	0	0
4.2 - 4.3	0	0	0	3	2	3	0	0
4.4 - 4.5	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0
4.6 - 4.7	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
4.8 - 4.9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5.0 - 5.1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0

 

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range	2011		2012		2013		Longer Run
	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections
5.0 - 5.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
5.2 - 5.3	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	7
5.4 - 5.5	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	4
5.6 - 5.7	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
5.8 - 5.9	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
6.0 - 6.1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2
6.2 - 6.3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
6.4 - 6.5	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0
6.6 - 6.7	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
6.8 - 6.9	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
7.0 - 7.1	0	0	0	1	6	8	0	0
7.2 - 7.3	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0
7.4 - 7.5	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	0
7.6 - 7.7	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	0
7.8 - 7.9	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	0
8.0 - 8.1	0	1	9	1	0	0	0	0
8.2 - 8.3	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	0
8.4 - 8.5	3	9	1	1	0	1	0	0
8.6 - 8.7	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
8.8 - 8.9	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
9.0 - 9.1	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2011-13 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range	2011		2012		2013		Longer Run
	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections
0.9 - 1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
1.1 - 1.2	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	0
1.3 - 1.4	0	0	2	2	3	3	0	0
1.5 - 1.6	0	0	7	6	4	4	3	3
1.7 - 1.8	0	0	2	1	2	3	3	2
1.9 - 2.0	0	1	3	2	6	4	11	12
2.1 - 2.2	3	6	0	1	1	0	0	0
2.3 - 2.4	8	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
2.5 - 2.6	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	0
2.7 - 2.8	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
2.9 - 3.0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
3.1 - 3.2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
3.3 - 3.4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3.5 - 3.6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2011-13

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range	2011		2012		2013
	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections	June projections	April projections
1.1 - 1.2	0	2	1	2	0	1
1.3 - 1.4	0	9	5	6	4	4
1.5 - 1.6	8	3	5	4	5	5
1.7 - 1.8	7	2	2	2	2	2
1.9 - 2.0	1	1	3	3	5	5
2.1 - 2.2	0	0	0	0	0	0
2.3 - 2.4	1	0	0	0	0	0
2.5 - 2.6	0	0	1	0	1	0

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