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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2008-43 Screen Reader version

Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity





Figure 1
datemedian distance to defaultweighted mean distance to defaultdefault probability
Jan-734.624.670.00
Feb-734.524.530.00
Mar-734.614.490.00
Apr-734.514.370.00
May-734.234.260.00
Jun-734.374.140.00
Jul-734.514.120.00
Aug-734.464.230.00
Sep-734.454.180.00
Oct-734.104.130.00
Nov-733.713.880.01
Dec-733.563.770.02
Jan-743.783.910.01
Feb-743.954.040.00
Mar-743.913.860.01
Apr-743.483.410.03
May-742.942.930.18
Jun-742.552.530.57
Jul-742.302.311.11
Aug-742.312.291.07
Sep-742.242.261.26
Oct-742.342.300.99
Nov-742.522.470.62
Dec-742.572.500.52
Jan-752.582.630.51
Feb-752.882.930.22
Mar-753.283.220.05
Apr-753.503.510.03
May-753.813.850.01
Jun-753.753.880.01
Jul-753.683.790.01
Aug-753.353.430.05
Sep-753.003.050.14
Oct-753.042.870.13
Nov-753.092.930.11
Dec-753.123.040.10
Jan-763.283.320.06
Feb-763.573.590.02
Mar-763.673.870.01
Apr-763.994.200.00
May-764.464.650.00
Jun-764.814.920.00
Jul-765.415.250.00
Aug-765.295.100.00
Sep-765.014.950.00
Oct-764.854.940.00
Nov-764.714.820.00
Dec-764.614.800.00
Jan-774.994.990.00
Feb-775.445.280.00
Mar-775.865.480.00
Apr-776.155.540.00
May-776.425.730.00
Jun-776.295.710.00
Jul-775.415.500.00
Aug-775.675.590.00
Sep-775.455.260.00
Oct-775.404.940.00
Nov-775.124.940.00
Dec-774.964.970.00
Jan-785.155.010.00
Feb-785.185.060.00
Mar-785.014.770.00
Apr-784.644.320.00
May-784.774.440.00
Jun-784.814.530.00
Jul-784.554.420.00
Aug-784.794.420.00
Sep-784.624.370.00
Oct-784.254.020.00
Nov-783.944.130.01
Dec-784.444.380.00
Jan-794.614.600.00
Feb-794.874.990.00
Mar-795.315.260.00
Apr-795.735.510.00
May-795.735.710.00
Jun-795.245.350.00
Jul-794.894.880.00
Aug-794.664.580.00
Sep-794.064.140.00
Oct-793.773.750.01
Nov-793.983.910.00
Dec-794.054.010.00
Jan-803.893.950.01
Feb-803.633.680.01
Mar-803.303.310.05
Apr-803.213.320.08
May-803.553.660.02
Jun-804.054.100.00
Jul-804.264.370.00
Aug-804.394.460.00
Sep-804.414.290.00
Oct-804.114.020.00
Nov-803.763.750.01
Dec-803.493.560.02
Jan-813.673.780.01
Feb-814.084.050.00
Mar-814.334.100.00
Apr-814.424.080.00
May-814.174.010.00
Jun-813.783.870.01
Jul-813.923.870.01
Aug-813.853.920.01
Sep-813.723.850.01
Oct-813.843.920.01
Nov-813.603.990.02
Dec-813.894.000.01
Jan-823.703.780.01
Feb-823.503.700.03
Mar-823.463.680.03
Apr-823.503.800.03
May-823.453.660.03
Jun-823.243.340.06
Jul-822.992.970.15
Aug-822.632.680.43
Sep-822.502.600.62
Oct-822.442.520.73
Nov-822.532.660.58
Dec-822.802.820.26
Jan-833.002.960.14
Feb-833.043.030.13
Mar-833.163.170.08
Apr-833.303.400.05
May-833.433.590.03
Jun-833.503.670.03
Jul-833.553.680.02
Aug-833.803.870.01
Sep-833.823.840.01
Oct-833.773.700.01
Nov-833.773.700.01
Dec-833.893.820.01
Jan-843.903.870.00
Feb-843.913.860.01
Mar-843.773.900.01
Apr-843.903.800.00
May-843.483.480.03
Jun-843.213.210.07
Jul-842.873.090.21
Aug-843.043.120.19
Sep-843.313.210.05
Oct-843.443.430.03
Nov-843.873.710.01
Dec-843.593.710.02
Jan-853.553.640.02
Feb-853.873.840.01
Mar-854.194.190.00
Apr-854.214.300.00
May-854.294.220.00
Jun-854.274.260.00
Jul-854.314.280.00
Aug-854.474.390.00
Sep-854.084.110.00
Oct-853.973.880.00
Nov-853.703.640.01
Dec-853.333.310.05
Jan-863.053.070.12
Feb-863.123.080.09
Mar-863.273.150.05
Apr-863.463.340.03
May-863.423.530.03
Jun-863.473.500.03
Jul-863.493.420.03
Aug-863.423.450.03
Sep-863.423.490.03
Oct-863.513.690.02
Nov-863.503.690.02
Dec-863.353.520.04
Jan-873.313.460.05
Feb-873.413.460.04
Mar-873.423.550.03
Apr-873.383.410.04
May-873.053.280.12
Jun-873.283.230.06
Jul-873.033.060.12
Aug-872.582.630.62
Sep-872.212.151.55
Oct-871.661.744.92
Nov-871.921.842.79
Dec-871.881.943.06
Jan-882.172.171.60
Feb-882.502.580.66
Mar-882.822.890.24
Apr-883.143.110.09
May-883.383.330.04
Jun-883.433.420.03
Jul-883.563.610.02
Aug-883.713.880.01
Sep-884.084.150.00
Oct-884.284.310.00
Nov-884.264.380.00
Dec-884.194.340.00
Jan-894.504.280.00
Feb-894.094.140.00
Mar-894.134.010.00
Apr-894.103.970.00
May-893.913.860.00
Jun-893.893.680.01
Jul-893.783.640.01
Aug-893.673.520.01
Sep-893.263.120.06
Oct-893.152.870.08
Nov-893.093.080.11
Dec-893.023.110.13
Jan-902.983.130.15
Feb-903.253.190.06
Mar-903.303.150.05
Apr-903.233.050.06
May-903.072.930.11
Jun-902.862.660.22
Jul-902.592.370.49
Aug-902.172.031.56
Sep-901.831.743.39
Oct-901.741.624.12
Nov-901.781.653.78
Dec-901.811.703.48
Jan-911.932.092.71
Feb-912.062.182.01
Mar-912.172.301.52
Apr-912.282.401.16
May-912.532.590.57
Jun-912.572.620.51
Jul-912.662.610.41
Aug-912.662.670.40
Sep-912.742.730.31
Oct-912.592.620.49
Nov-912.512.530.62
Dec-912.412.400.81
Jan-922.472.450.68
Feb-922.852.590.22
Mar-922.952.650.16
Apr-923.052.610.12
May-923.252.800.06
Jun-923.322.890.04
Jul-923.383.120.04
Aug-923.633.390.01
Sep-923.563.470.02
Oct-923.283.490.05
Nov-923.393.610.04
Dec-923.373.460.04
Jan-933.253.270.06
Feb-933.273.270.05
Mar-933.263.270.06
Apr-933.293.210.05
May-933.363.330.04
Jun-933.523.480.02
Jul-933.873.740.01
Aug-934.064.020.00
Sep-933.913.930.01
Oct-933.633.830.01
Nov-933.833.940.01
Dec-934.013.990.00
Jan-943.943.800.00
Feb-944.043.850.00
Mar-943.923.830.00
Apr-943.813.790.01
May-943.874.000.01
Jun-944.094.220.00
Jul-944.484.470.00
Aug-944.504.650.00
Sep-944.224.400.00
Oct-944.074.090.00
Nov-943.823.950.01
Dec-943.873.970.01
Jan-954.074.060.00
Feb-954.444.290.00
Mar-954.424.390.00
Apr-954.364.330.00
May-953.994.170.00
Jun-953.783.990.01
Jul-954.164.040.00
Aug-954.063.970.00
Sep-953.593.660.02
Oct-953.293.270.05
Nov-953.233.120.06
Dec-953.372.990.04
Jan-963.322.940.05
Feb-963.342.930.04
Mar-963.352.960.04
Apr-963.382.830.04
May-963.633.110.02
Jun-963.613.240.02
Jul-963.413.340.03
Aug-963.543.630.02
Sep-963.713.820.01
Oct-963.953.830.00
Nov-963.713.630.01
Dec-963.413.460.03
Jan-973.493.310.03
Feb-973.433.140.03
Mar-973.202.970.07
Apr-973.102.900.10
May-973.182.980.08
Jun-973.303.050.05
Jul-973.342.970.04
Aug-973.342.940.04
Sep-973.262.840.06
Oct-972.912.570.20
Nov-972.752.510.32
Dec-973.032.640.12
Jan-983.152.740.08
Feb-983.292.900.05
Mar-983.152.810.08
Apr-983.012.680.13
May-983.032.750.13
Jun-982.782.560.29
Jul-982.152.051.67
Aug-981.661.655.23
Sep-981.501.416.70
Oct-981.541.356.23
Nov-981.741.484.15
Dec-981.971.662.49
Jan-992.081.861.88
Feb-992.242.121.25
Mar-992.512.330.65
Apr-992.552.450.56
May-992.632.500.44
Jun-992.722.640.33
Jul-992.792.690.27
Aug-992.592.480.48
Sep-992.412.350.81
Oct-992.102.151.82
Nov-992.142.151.65
Dec-992.162.131.57
Jan-002.042.082.07
Feb-002.132.091.68
Mar-001.921.942.78
Apr-002.081.981.93
May-002.182.121.47
Jun-002.242.211.29
Jul-002.402.390.81
Aug-002.452.470.72
Sep-002.432.290.78
Oct-002.292.101.10
Nov-002.252.131.23
Dec-002.202.071.41
Jan-012.272.151.19
Feb-012.472.160.68
Mar-012.382.050.89
Apr-012.512.280.69
May-013.062.800.13
Jun-013.123.050.10
Jul-013.273.100.06
Aug-012.902.900.20
Sep-012.532.490.57
Oct-012.622.580.44
Nov-012.982.890.15
Dec-013.193.140.07
Jan-023.163.120.08
Feb-023.153.120.09
Mar-023.303.240.06
Apr-023.233.240.07
May-023.423.000.04
Jun-022.822.570.27
Jul-022.382.170.92
Aug-022.342.151.03
Sep-022.202.121.46
Oct-022.242.131.38
Nov-022.752.520.34
Dec-023.202.900.08
Jan-033.473.210.03
Feb-033.513.360.02
Mar-033.323.300.05
Apr-033.463.620.03
May-033.713.970.01
Jun-033.814.070.01
Jul-034.064.230.00
Aug-034.364.550.00
Sep-034.284.590.00
Oct-034.504.710.00
Nov-034.825.000.00
Dec-034.675.170.00
Jan-044.695.060.00
Feb-044.834.970.00
Mar-044.614.660.00
Apr-044.744.390.00
May-044.814.400.00
Jun-045.144.630.00
Jul-044.824.750.00
Aug-045.174.940.00
Sep-045.204.910.00
Oct-045.184.910.00
Nov-045.485.200.00
Dec-045.655.550.00
Jan-055.675.830.00
Feb-055.515.940.00
Mar-055.425.800.00
Apr-055.085.800.00
May-055.436.250.00
Jun-055.996.740.00
Jul-056.076.700.00
Aug-056.046.720.00
Sep-055.416.400.00
Oct-055.235.920.00
Nov-055.595.890.00
Dec-055.635.980.00
Jan-065.085.580.00
Feb-065.305.520.00
Mar-065.165.480.00
Apr-064.765.110.00
May-065.044.970.00
Jun-064.964.960.00
Jul-064.725.140.00
Aug-065.525.820.00
Sep-066.336.370.00
Oct-065.996.300.00
Nov-065.586.010.00
Dec-065.865.550.00
Jan-074.895.120.00
Feb-074.734.650.00
Mar-074.294.400.00
Apr-074.294.770.00
May-075.004.900.00
Jun-074.244.300.00
Jul-073.133.420.11
Aug-072.662.900.40
Sep-072.932.860.17
Oct-072.622.540.49
Nov-072.182.211.48
Dec-072.272.301.17
Jan-082.262.321.20
Return to Figure 1


Figure 2
dateInterquartile range
Jan-731.10
Feb-731.34
Mar-731.67
Apr-731.00
May-730.98
Jun-731.12
Jul-731.34
Aug-731.58
Sep-731.75
Oct-731.27
Nov-731.24
Dec-731.34
Jan-741.01
Feb-740.87
Mar-741.13
Apr-740.84
May-740.97
Jun-740.94
Jul-740.88
Aug-740.87
Sep-740.84
Oct-740.77
Nov-740.76
Dec-740.76
Jan-750.82
Feb-750.82
Mar-750.87
Apr-750.88
May-750.91
Jun-751.01
Jul-751.00
Aug-750.94
Sep-751.10
Oct-751.24
Nov-750.93
Dec-750.82
Jan-760.98
Feb-761.23
Mar-761.47
Apr-761.76
May-761.92
Jun-761.87
Jul-762.01
Aug-761.28
Sep-761.30
Oct-761.31
Nov-761.45
Dec-761.59
Jan-771.36
Feb-771.64
Mar-772.03
Apr-772.25
May-772.20
Jun-772.33
Jul-772.36
Aug-773.22
Sep-772.97
Oct-772.37
Nov-771.81
Dec-771.72
Jan-781.72
Feb-781.93
Mar-782.37
Apr-782.01
May-782.03
Jun-781.62
Jul-780.98
Aug-781.31
Sep-781.38
Oct-781.43
Nov-781.39
Dec-781.47
Jan-791.55
Feb-792.06
Mar-791.61
Apr-792.18
May-792.11
Jun-791.65
Jul-791.51
Aug-791.16
Sep-791.05
Oct-790.88
Nov-790.92
Dec-791.00
Jan-800.88
Feb-800.56
Mar-801.09
Apr-800.52
May-800.62
Jun-800.72
Jul-800.83
Aug-800.94
Sep-801.48
Oct-801.11
Nov-800.87
Dec-800.91
Jan-811.12
Feb-811.17
Mar-811.40
Apr-811.45
May-811.36
Jun-811.15
Jul-811.10
Aug-811.54
Sep-811.94
Oct-811.62
Nov-811.09
Dec-811.25
Jan-821.24
Feb-821.20
Mar-820.93
Apr-820.87
May-820.96
Jun-821.22
Jul-820.89
Aug-820.62
Sep-820.54
Oct-820.59
Nov-820.71
Dec-820.72
Jan-830.66
Feb-830.63
Mar-830.55
Apr-830.67
May-830.84
Jun-831.04
Jul-831.04
Aug-831.21
Sep-831.07
Oct-830.99
Nov-830.77
Dec-830.89
Jan-841.71
Feb-841.49
Mar-841.49
Apr-841.34
May-841.33
Jun-841.11
Jul-841.08
Aug-841.02
Sep-841.11
Oct-841.33
Nov-841.30
Dec-841.38
Jan-851.44
Feb-850.92
Mar-851.28
Apr-851.43
May-851.45
Jun-851.45
Jul-851.34
Aug-851.26
Sep-851.45
Oct-851.30
Nov-851.29
Dec-850.98
Jan-860.83
Feb-860.66
Mar-860.62
Apr-860.76
May-861.11
Jun-861.13
Jul-861.13
Aug-860.87
Sep-860.87
Oct-861.37
Nov-861.67
Dec-861.67
Jan-871.16
Feb-870.65
Mar-870.74
Apr-870.91
May-871.08
Jun-871.21
Jul-871.19
Aug-871.12
Sep-871.03
Oct-870.74
Nov-870.67
Dec-870.59
Jan-880.88
Feb-880.92
Mar-880.91
Apr-880.62
May-880.35
Jun-880.60
Jul-880.72
Aug-880.94
Sep-880.96
Oct-881.21
Nov-881.45
Dec-881.27
Jan-891.28
Feb-891.24
Mar-891.08
Apr-891.12
May-891.09
Jun-890.88
Jul-890.83
Aug-890.93
Sep-890.91
Oct-890.88
Nov-890.79
Dec-890.71
Jan-900.62
Feb-900.67
Mar-900.76
Apr-900.68
May-900.76
Jun-900.59
Jul-900.50
Aug-900.47
Sep-900.71
Oct-900.56
Nov-900.46
Dec-900.40
Jan-910.34
Feb-910.34
Mar-910.41
Apr-910.42
May-910.60
Jun-910.89
Jul-911.02
Aug-910.68
Sep-910.41
Oct-910.58
Nov-910.64
Dec-910.70
Jan-921.07
Feb-921.01
Mar-920.86
Apr-921.08
May-921.12
Jun-921.10
Jul-921.20
Aug-921.68
Sep-921.06
Oct-921.03
Nov-921.41
Dec-920.77
Jan-930.69
Feb-930.62
Mar-930.54
Apr-930.68
May-930.69
Jun-930.70
Jul-930.83
Aug-930.58
Sep-930.71
Oct-930.99
Nov-930.98
Dec-931.35
Jan-941.36
Feb-941.62
Mar-941.51
Apr-941.00
May-940.95
Jun-940.74
Jul-941.20
Aug-941.52
Sep-941.17
Oct-940.78
Nov-940.84
Dec-941.01
Jan-951.17
Feb-951.37
Mar-951.58
Apr-951.88
May-951.68
Jun-951.60
Jul-951.95
Aug-952.03
Sep-951.55
Oct-951.10
Nov-951.28
Dec-951.69
Jan-961.54
Feb-961.90
Mar-961.54
Apr-960.97
May-960.81
Jun-961.37
Jul-961.32
Aug-961.36
Sep-961.22
Oct-961.31
Nov-960.95
Dec-960.53
Jan-970.87
Feb-970.88
Mar-970.75
Apr-970.74
May-970.99
Jun-971.05
Jul-971.43
Aug-971.31
Sep-971.11
Oct-971.19
Nov-971.16
Dec-971.19
Jan-981.11
Feb-980.83
Mar-981.04
Apr-981.06
May-981.06
Jun-980.98
Jul-980.68
Aug-980.51
Sep-980.72
Oct-980.88
Nov-981.11
Dec-981.24
Jan-991.27
Feb-991.28
Mar-991.29
Apr-990.81
May-990.35
Jun-990.64
Jul-990.79
Aug-990.62
Sep-990.52
Oct-990.47
Nov-990.44
Dec-990.43
Jan-000.35
Feb-000.36
Mar-000.45
Apr-000.35
May-000.36
Jun-000.43
Jul-000.58
Aug-000.88
Sep-000.88
Oct-000.66
Nov-000.85
Dec-000.94
Jan-011.12
Feb-011.20
Mar-011.03
Apr-011.20
May-011.69
Jun-011.62
Jul-011.84
Aug-011.29
Sep-010.63
Oct-011.15
Nov-011.60
Dec-012.38
Jan-022.18
Feb-021.79
Mar-021.91
Apr-021.85
May-021.74
Jun-021.26
Jul-020.86
Aug-020.84
Sep-020.66
Oct-020.70
Nov-020.82
Dec-020.99
Jan-031.16
Feb-031.08
Mar-031.01
Apr-031.13
May-031.34
Jun-031.52
Jul-031.36
Aug-031.36
Sep-031.66
Oct-031.55
Nov-032.03
Dec-032.13
Jan-042.07
Feb-041.89
Mar-041.69
Apr-041.49
May-041.40
Jun-041.39
Jul-042.33
Aug-042.27
Sep-041.51
Oct-041.33
Nov-042.19
Dec-041.92
Jan-051.95
Feb-051.58
Mar-050.96
Apr-051.26
May-051.52
Jun-052.08
Jul-052.03
Aug-051.53
Sep-051.11
Oct-051.57
Nov-051.60
Dec-051.65
Jan-061.56
Feb-061.64
Mar-061.96
Apr-061.89
May-061.83
Jun-062.07
Jul-061.99
Aug-062.65
Sep-063.10
Oct-063.88
Nov-063.85
Dec-063.23
Jan-073.08
Feb-072.21
Mar-071.79
Apr-071.54
May-071.31
Jun-071.04
Jul-070.62
Aug-070.55
Sep-070.83
Oct-070.71
Nov-070.45
Dec-070.52
Jan-080.44
Return to Figure 2


Figure 3
DateDistance to DefaultProbability of default
1-3-800.004.64
1-4-800.004.63
1-7-800.004.62
1-8-800.004.59
1-9-800.004.56
1-10-800.004.52
1-11-800.004.48
1-14-800.004.43
1-15-800.004.37
1-16-800.004.31
1-17-800.004.24
1-18-800.004.19
1-21-800.004.13
1-22-800.004.07
1-23-800.004.01
1-24-800.003.98
1-25-800.003.95
1-28-800.003.91
1-29-800.013.88
1-30-800.013.84
1-31-800.013.80
2-1-800.013.75
2-4-800.013.69
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2-7-830.182.91
2-8-830.172.92
2-9-830.172.93
2-10-830.172.94
2-11-830.172.94
2-14-830.172.93
2-15-830.182.92
2-16-830.182.91
2-17-830.192.89
2-18-830.192.90
2-22-830.172.93
2-23-830.162.95
2-24-830.152.96
2-25-830.152.98
2-28-830.142.99
3-1-830.142.99
3-2-830.142.98
3-3-830.133.02
3-4-830.113.07
3-7-830.093.12
3-8-830.073.19
3-9-830.063.25
3-10-830.053.31
3-11-830.043.37
3-14-830.033.42
3-15-830.033.47
3-16-830.023.51
3-17-830.023.56
3-18-830.023.60
3-21-830.013.63
3-22-830.013.67
3-23-830.013.70
3-24-830.013.73
3-25-830.013.77
3-28-830.013.82
3-29-830.013.85
3-30-830.013.88
4-5-830.003.90
4-6-830.003.92
4-7-830.003.93
4-8-830.003.96
4-11-830.003.97
4-12-830.003.98
4-13-830.003.99
4-14-830.003.98
4-15-830.003.97
4-18-830.003.95
4-19-830.003.92
4-20-830.013.89
4-21-830.013.86
4-22-830.013.81
4-25-830.013.80
4-26-830.013.78
4-27-830.013.75
4-28-830.013.73
4-29-830.013.77
5-2-830.013.79
5-3-830.013.82
5-4-830.013.83
5-5-830.013.84
5-6-830.013.84
5-9-830.013.84
5-10-830.013.83
5-11-830.013.81
5-12-830.013.81
5-13-830.013.81
5-16-830.013.86
5-17-830.003.89
5-18-830.003.92
5-19-830.003.95
5-20-830.003.96
5-23-830.004.00
5-24-830.004.06
5-25-830.004.12
5-26-830.004.17
5-27-830.004.21
5-31-830.004.26
6-1-830.004.29
6-2-830.004.33
6-3-830.004.36
6-6-830.004.37
6-7-830.004.39
6-8-830.004.43
6-9-830.004.46
6-10-830.004.48
6-13-830.004.49
6-14-830.004.50
6-15-830.004.50
6-16-830.004.50
6-17-830.004.48
6-20-830.004.48
6-21-830.004.49
6-22-830.004.48
6-23-830.004.47
6-24-830.004.49
6-27-830.004.51
6-28-830.004.52
6-29-830.004.52
7-5-830.004.54
7-6-830.004.54
7-7-830.004.54
7-8-830.004.54
7-11-830.004.52
7-12-830.004.49
7-13-830.004.46
7-14-830.004.42
7-15-830.004.37
7-18-830.004.31
7-19-830.004.25
7-20-830.004.31
7-21-830.004.39
7-22-830.004.46
7-25-830.004.53
7-26-830.004.61
7-27-830.004.67
7-28-830.004.73
7-29-830.004.78
8-1-830.004.83
8-2-830.004.87
8-3-830.004.89
8-4-830.004.92
8-5-830.004.94
8-8-830.004.94
8-9-830.004.94
8-10-830.004.93
8-11-830.004.92
8-12-830.004.92
8-15-830.004.92
8-16-830.004.91
8-17-830.004.90
8-18-830.004.88
8-19-830.004.86
8-22-830.004.83
8-23-830.004.85
8-24-830.004.86
8-25-830.004.88
8-26-830.004.90
8-29-830.004.92
8-30-830.004.94
8-31-830.004.94
9-1-830.004.93
9-2-830.004.92
9-6-830.004.92
9-7-830.004.91
9-8-830.004.90
9-9-830.004.88
9-12-830.004.85
9-13-830.004.81
9-14-830.004.76
9-15-830.004.71
9-16-830.004.66
9-19-830.004.59
9-20-830.004.53
9-21-830.004.46
9-22-830.004.39
9-23-830.004.31
9-26-830.004.29
9-27-830.004.27
9-28-830.004.29
9-29-830.004.29
10-4-830.004.29
10-5-830.004.30
10-6-830.004.29
10-7-830.004.27
10-11-830.004.26
10-12-830.004.25
10-13-830.004.23
10-14-830.004.20
10-17-830.004.18
10-18-830.004.16
10-19-830.004.17
10-20-830.004.19
10-21-830.004.19
10-24-830.004.20
10-25-830.004.20
10-26-830.004.19
10-27-830.004.17
10-28-830.004.15
10-31-830.004.11
11-1-830.004.07
11-2-830.004.02
11-3-830.003.96
11-4-830.003.90
11-7-830.013.84
11-9-830.013.77
11-10-830.013.73
11-14-830.013.72
11-15-830.013.72
11-16-830.013.70
11-17-830.013.68
11-18-830.013.66
11-21-830.013.63
11-22-830.013.65
11-23-830.013.67
11-25-830.013.68
11-28-830.013.73
11-29-830.013.77
11-30-830.013.81
12-1-830.013.85
12-2-830.013.89
12-5-830.003.92
12-6-830.003.94
12-7-830.003.96
12-8-830.004.00
12-9-830.004.03
12-12-830.004.05
12-13-830.004.07
12-14-830.004.10
12-15-830.004.12
12-16-830.004.13
12-19-830.004.14
12-20-830.004.14
12-21-830.004.13
12-22-830.004.12
12-23-830.004.12
12-27-830.004.12
12-28-830.004.13
12-29-830.004.18
1-4-840.004.23
1-5-840.004.28
1-6-840.004.32
1-9-840.004.37
1-10-840.004.43
1-11-840.004.47
1-12-840.004.51
1-13-840.004.54
1-16-840.004.57
1-17-840.004.59
1-18-840.004.59
1-19-840.004.59
1-20-840.004.60
1-23-840.004.59
1-24-840.004.58
1-25-840.004.57
1-26-840.004.54
1-27-840.004.50
1-30-840.004.46
1-31-840.004.41
2-1-840.004.36
2-2-840.004.29
2-3-840.004.24
2-6-840.004.18
2-7-840.004.12
2-8-840.004.10
2-9-840.004.06
2-10-840.004.02
2-14-840.003.98
2-15-840.003.93
2-16-840.013.88
2-17-840.013.83
2-21-840.013.76
2-22-840.013.72
2-23-840.013.67
2-24-840.023.61
2-27-840.023.56
2-28-840.023.50
2-29-840.033.44
3-1-840.043.38
3-2-840.043.32
3-5-840.063.26
3-6-840.073.19
3-7-840.093.12
3-8-840.113.05
3-9-840.142.98
3-12-840.182.91
3-13-840.232.83
3-14-840.292.76
3-15-840.362.69
3-16-840.442.62
3-19-840.542.55
3-20-840.662.48
3-21-840.792.41
3-22-840.942.35
3-23-841.112.29
3-26-841.282.23
3-27-841.482.17
3-28-841.722.12
3-29-841.982.06
4-3-842.272.00
4-4-842.591.94
4-5-842.951.89
4-6-843.341.83
4-9-843.761.78
4-10-844.221.73
4-11-844.711.67
4-12-845.231.62
4-13-845.761.57
4-16-846.341.53
4-17-846.941.48
4-18-847.401.45
4-19-847.911.41
4-23-848.461.37
4-24-849.041.34
4-25-849.631.30
4-26-8410.261.27
4-27-8410.851.23
4-30-8411.501.20
5-1-8412.171.17
5-2-8412.801.14
5-3-8413.481.10
5-4-8414.161.07
5-7-8414.851.04
5-8-8415.521.01
5-9-8416.210.99
5-10-8416.780.96
5-11-8417.330.94
5-14-8417.850.92
5-15-8418.320.90
5-16-8418.720.89
5-17-8419.040.88
5-18-8419.480.86
5-21-8419.910.84
5-22-8420.220.83
5-23-8420.560.82
5-24-8420.920.81
5-25-8421.220.80
5-29-8421.620.79
5-30-8421.680.78
5-31-8421.340.79
6-1-8421.370.79
6-4-8421.360.79
6-5-8421.430.79
6-6-8421.500.79
6-7-8421.550.79
6-8-8421.620.79
6-11-8421.630.78
6-12-8421.610.79
6-13-8421.600.79
6-14-8421.770.78
6-15-8421.920.77
6-18-8422.080.77
6-19-8422.340.76
6-20-8422.580.75
6-21-8422.840.74
6-22-8423.160.73
6-25-8423.550.72
6-26-8423.980.71
6-27-8424.400.69
6-28-8424.880.68
7-3-8425.000.67
7-5-8425.340.66
7-6-8425.580.66
7-9-8425.990.64
7-10-8426.440.63
7-11-8426.820.62
7-12-8427.360.60
7-13-8427.850.59
7-16-8428.310.57
7-17-8428.850.56
7-18-8429.080.55
7-19-8429.030.55
7-20-8429.370.54
7-23-8429.740.53
7-24-8430.210.52
7-25-8429.660.53
7-26-8429.830.53
7-27-8429.750.53
7-30-8429.470.54
7-31-8429.260.55
8-1-8429.090.55
8-2-8428.950.55
8-3-8428.820.56
8-6-8428.760.56
8-7-8428.710.56
8-8-8428.810.56
8-9-8428.890.56
8-10-8428.950.55
8-13-8429.070.55
8-14-8429.240.55
8-15-8429.410.54
8-16-8429.670.53
8-17-8429.980.52
8-20-8430.210.52
8-21-8430.520.51
8-22-8430.860.50
8-23-8431.210.49
8-24-8431.640.48
8-27-8432.010.47
8-28-8432.370.46
8-29-8432.770.45
8-30-8433.160.44
8-31-8433.590.42
9-4-8433.960.41
9-5-8434.400.40
9-6-8434.800.39
9-7-8435.220.38
9-10-8435.640.37
9-11-8436.050.36
9-12-8436.470.35
9-13-8436.900.33
9-14-8437.320.32
9-17-8437.690.31
9-18-8438.060.30
9-19-8438.410.29
9-20-8438.770.29
9-21-8439.110.28
9-24-8439.460.27
9-25-8439.800.26
9-26-8440.150.25
9-27-8440.070.25
10-2-8439.750.26
10-3-8439.410.27
10-4-8439.070.28
10-5-8438.720.29
10-9-8438.360.30
10-10-8437.990.31
10-11-8437.620.32
10-12-8437.230.33
10-15-8436.840.34
10-16-8436.440.35
10-17-8436.040.36
10-18-8435.630.37
10-19-8435.230.38
10-22-8434.810.39
10-23-8434.360.40
10-24-8433.920.41
10-25-8433.470.43
10-26-8433.030.44
10-29-8432.600.45
10-30-8432.180.46
10-31-8431.750.47
11-1-8431.340.49
11-2-8430.930.50
11-5-8430.550.51
11-7-8430.160.52
11-8-8429.790.53
11-9-8429.460.54
11-13-8429.140.55
11-14-8428.840.56
11-15-8428.590.57
11-16-8428.360.57
11-19-8428.170.58
11-20-8428.030.58
11-21-8427.950.58
11-23-8427.890.59
11-26-8427.860.59
11-27-8427.890.59
11-28-8427.940.58
11-29-8428.050.58
11-30-8428.170.58
12-3-8428.330.57
12-4-8428.540.57
12-5-8428.770.56
12-6-8429.030.55
12-7-8429.350.54
12-10-8428.530.57
12-11-8428.100.58
12-12-8427.680.59
12-13-8427.250.61
12-14-8426.900.62
12-17-8426.520.63
12-18-8426.210.64
12-19-8425.920.65
12-20-8425.660.65
12-21-8425.420.66
12-24-8425.260.67
12-26-8425.110.67
12-27-8424.990.67
12-28-8424.960.68
1-3-8524.570.69
1-4-8524.040.71
1-7-8523.500.72
1-8-8522.980.74
1-9-8522.410.76
1-10-8521.780.78
1-11-8521.090.80
1-14-8520.440.83
1-15-8519.790.85
1-16-8519.150.87
1-17-8518.530.90
1-18-8517.900.92
1-22-8517.240.94
1-23-8516.550.97
1-24-8515.851.00
1-25-8515.161.03
1-28-8514.471.06
1-29-8513.811.09
1-30-8513.181.12
1-31-8512.521.15
2-1-8511.851.18
2-4-8511.221.21
2-5-8510.611.25
2-6-8510.011.28
2-7-859.441.31
2-8-858.911.35
2-11-858.391.38
2-13-857.881.41
2-14-857.391.45
2-15-856.941.48
2-19-856.501.51
2-20-856.101.55
2-21-855.651.58
2-22-855.211.62
2-25-854.711.67
2-26-854.241.72
2-27-853.791.78
2-28-853.361.83
3-1-852.971.88
3-4-852.611.94
3-5-852.292.00
3-6-852.002.05
3-7-851.722.11
3-8-851.492.17
3-11-851.292.23
3-12-851.112.29
3-13-850.952.35
3-14-850.812.40
3-15-850.692.46
3-18-850.592.52
3-19-850.512.57
3-20-850.442.62
3-21-850.382.67
3-22-850.332.72
3-25-850.292.76
3-26-850.262.79
3-27-850.232.83
3-28-850.212.87
4-2-850.182.91
4-3-850.162.96
4-4-850.142.99
4-8-850.123.03
4-9-850.113.06
4-10-850.103.09
4-11-850.093.11
4-12-850.093.13
4-15-850.093.14
4-16-850.083.14
4-17-850.083.14
4-18-850.093.14
4-19-850.093.13
4-22-850.093.11
4-23-850.103.10
4-24-850.113.07
4-25-850.123.04
4-26-850.133.01
4-29-850.152.96
4-30-850.172.92
5-1-850.202.88
5-2-850.232.83
5-3-850.272.78
5-6-850.322.73
5-7-850.382.67
5-8-850.452.61
5-9-850.532.56
5-10-850.532.56
5-13-850.472.59
5-14-850.432.63
5-15-850.392.66
5-16-850.332.71
5-17-850.282.77
5-20-850.232.83
5-21-850.192.89
5-22-850.162.95
5-23-850.133.01
5-24-850.113.07
5-28-850.093.13
5-29-850.073.18
5-30-850.063.23
5-31-850.053.28
6-3-850.043.33
6-4-850.043.37
6-5-850.033.42
6-6-850.033.47
6-7-850.023.51
6-10-850.023.54
6-11-850.023.57
6-12-850.013.62
6-13-850.013.67
6-14-850.013.71
6-17-850.013.74
6-18-850.013.78
6-19-850.013.81
6-20-850.013.84
6-21-850.013.85
6-24-850.013.87
6-25-850.013.88
6-26-850.013.88
6-27-850.003.89
7-2-850.003.90
7-3-850.003.91
7-5-850.003.91
7-8-850.003.90
7-9-850.003.90
7-10-850.013.88
7-11-850.003.89
7-12-850.003.91
7-15-850.003.93
7-16-850.003.95
7-17-850.003.96
7-18-850.003.99
7-19-850.004.01
7-22-850.004.02
7-23-850.004.04
7-24-850.004.05
7-25-850.004.07
7-26-850.004.09
7-29-850.004.12
7-30-850.004.14
7-31-850.004.17
8-1-850.004.20
8-2-850.004.24
8-5-850.004.26
8-6-850.004.29
8-7-850.004.31
8-8-850.004.34
8-9-850.004.37
8-12-850.004.38
8-13-850.004.39
8-14-850.004.39
8-15-850.004.40
8-16-850.004.39
8-19-850.004.37
8-20-850.004.36
8-21-850.004.34
8-22-850.004.31
8-23-850.004.28
8-26-850.004.25
8-27-850.004.22
8-28-850.004.19
8-29-850.004.16
8-30-850.004.13
9-3-850.004.09
9-4-850.004.08
9-5-850.004.09
9-6-850.004.10
9-9-850.004.11
9-10-850.004.12
9-11-850.004.12
9-12-850.004.11
9-13-850.004.10
9-16-850.004.07
9-17-850.004.05
9-18-850.004.02
9-19-850.003.99
9-20-850.003.97
9-23-850.003.93
9-24-850.013.89
9-25-850.013.83
9-26-850.013.78
10-2-850.013.72
10-3-850.013.66
10-4-850.023.59
10-7-850.023.52
10-8-850.033.45
10-9-850.043.38
10-10-850.053.31
10-11-850.063.25
10-15-850.063.24
10-16-850.063.23
10-17-850.063.22
10-18-850.063.24
10-21-850.063.24
10-22-850.063.25
10-23-850.063.25
10-24-850.063.25
10-25-850.063.24
10-28-850.063.23
10-29-850.063.22
10-30-850.073.20
10-31-850.073.19
11-1-850.083.16
11-4-850.083.14
11-5-850.093.11
11-6-850.113.07
11-7-850.123.03
11-8-850.142.99
11-12-850.152.98
11-13-850.162.96
11-14-850.172.93
11-15-850.182.91
11-18-850.192.89
11-19-850.212.86
11-20-850.232.83
11-21-850.262.80
11-22-850.292.76
11-25-850.332.72
11-26-850.352.70
11-27-850.372.67
11-29-850.402.65
12-2-850.442.62
12-3-850.482.59
12-4-850.502.57
12-5-850.542.55
12-6-850.572.53
12-9-850.622.50
12-10-850.682.47
12-11-850.732.44
12-12-850.802.41
12-13-850.852.39
12-16-850.892.37
12-17-850.902.37
12-18-850.802.41
12-19-850.702.46
12-20-850.602.51
12-23-850.512.57
12-24-850.442.62
12-26-850.382.67
12-27-850.332.72
12-30-850.282.77
Return to Figure 3


Figure 4
Periods Following ShockResponse of Profits to Financial IndexStandard Error of Response of Profits to Financial IndexResponse of Profits to SpreadStandard Error of Response of Profits to SpreadResponse of Investment to Financial IndexStandard Error of Response of Investment to Financial IndexResponse of Investment to SpreadStandard Error Response of Investment to Spread
000000000
1-0.0157470.0082-0.0184580.00138-0.0026780.00154-0.0065620.00897
2-0.0137980.006460.0004020.00128-0.0048430.00138-0.0059430.00642
3-0.0024940.005750.0059410.00137-0.0044770.00147-0.0049640.00579
40.0024350.004570.0048110.00139-0.0029740.00148-0.0033920.00501
50.0020670.003380.0022180.00136-0.001520.00145-0.0025690.00403
60.0005760.002380.0011840.00128-0.0005990.00141-0.0020430.00321
7-0.0002170.001720.0009360.00117-7.35e-050.00134-0.0016620.00261
8-0.0004240.001320.0008580.001040.0002410.00125-0.0013170.00219
9-0.0004490.001040.0007120.00090.0004420.00114-0.0010240.00189
10-0.0004660.000820.0005450.000760.0005630.00103-0.0007860.00164
11-0.0004840.000640.0004030.000640.0006210.00092-0.0005990.00142
12-0.0004840.00050.0002980.000530.0006320.00082-0.0004530.00124
13-0.0004620.00040.0002210.000440.0006110.00073-0.0003380.00107
14-0.0004260.000320.0001620.000360.0005720.00064-0.0002490.00093
15-0.0003830.000260.0001160.000290.0005210.00056-0.000180.0008
16-0.0003390.000228.09E-050.000240.0004670.0005-0.0001270.00068
17-0.0002970.000185.45E-050.00020.0004110.00043-8.77E-050.00058
18-0.0002560.000153.50E-050.000170.0003570.00038-5.81E-050.00049
19-0.0002190.000132.08E-050.000150.0003070.00033-3.63E-050.00042
Return to Figure 4


Figure 5
Periods Following ShockResponse of Profits to Financial IndexStandard Error of Response of Profits to Financial IndexResponse of Profits to SpreadStandard Error of Response of Profits to SpreadResponse of Investment to Financial IndexStandard Error of Response of Investment to Financial IndexResponse of Investment to SpreadStandard Error Response of Investment to Spread
00.000000000000
1-0.015750.00897-0.0184580.0082-0.0026780.00154-0.0065620.00138
2-0.013800.006420.0004020.00646-0.0048430.00138-0.0059430.00128
3-0.002490.005790.0059410.00575-0.0044770.00147-0.0049640.00137
40.002440.005010.0048110.00457-0.0029740.00148-0.0033920.00139
50.002070.004030.0022180.00338-0.001520.00145-0.0025690.00136
60.000580.003210.0011840.00238-0.0005990.00141-0.0020430.00128
7-0.000220.002610.0009360.00172-7.35E-050.00134-0.0016620.00117
8-0.000420.002190.0008580.001320.0002410.00125-0.0013170.00104
9-0.000450.001890.0007120.001040.0004420.00114-0.0010240.0009
10-0.000470.001640.0005450.000820.0005630.00103-0.0007860.00076
11-0.000480.001420.0004030.000640.0006210.00092-0.0005990.00064
12-0.000480.001240.0002980.00050.0006320.00082-0.0004530.00053
13-0.000460.001070.0002210.00040.0006110.00073-0.0003380.00044
14-0.000430.000930.0001620.000320.0005720.00064-0.0002490.00036
15-0.000380.00080.0001160.000260.0005210.00056-0.000180.00029
16-0.000340.000688.09E-050.000220.0004670.0005-0.0001270.00024
17-0.000300.000585.45E-050.000180.0004110.00043-8.77E-050.0002
18-0.000260.000493.50E-050.000150.0003570.00038-5.81E-050.00017
19-0.000220.000422.08E-050.000130.0003070.00033-3.63E-050.00015
Return to Figure 5


Figure 6
DateEffects of financial health shockNBER Recession
Aug-740No
Nov-730.146981814985118Yes
Feb-74-0.177275983027197Yes
May-74-0.44510950702523Yes
Aug-74-0.921871622056612Yes
Nov-74-1.58051373708348Yes
Feb-75-1.71437578421898Yes
May-75-1.14226295601292No
Aug-75-0.14003402920989No
Nov-750.235524009114676No
Feb-760.0454033994462366No
May-760.062679371911661No
Aug-760.674013845790584No
Nov-761.51423690910322No
Feb-771.52103117933921No
May-771.44384742796021No
Aug-771.91427623980197No
Nov-771.63934501224051No
Feb-780.885061709878083No
May-780.415531129798986No
Aug-780.0618457200415035No
Nov-78-0.0435627746103028No
Feb-79-0.332593486191422No
May-79-0.0946221054522824No
Aug-790.604830952251101No
Nov-790.438577615827616No
Feb-80-0.337781675483321Yes
May-80-0.958240642918762Yes
Aug-80-0.954643282325869No
Nov-80-0.345011891542711No
Feb-81-0.190851182350433No
May-81-0.172493391385861No
Aug-810.03554327680757Yes
Nov-81-0.127978638416773Yes
Feb-82-0.299339094913667Yes
May-82-0.581508319459589Yes
Aug-82-0.743243912754671Yes
Nov-82-1.03076220202192Yes
Feb-83-1.14370651515833No
May-83-0.641844469077326No
Aug-83-0.0701436698370458No
Nov-830.32070565252238No
Feb-840.468551303475617No
May-840.356189493528843No
Aug-840.00265529310367815No
Nov-84-0.348808192024581No
Feb-85-0.102225732314117No
May-850.440768946922547No
Aug-850.878098538535708No
Nov-851.08325599995654No
Feb-860.643373661398821No
May-860.0573195559856608No
Aug-86-0.0231487502167612No
Nov-860.042412386809457No
Feb-870.0776245463525685No
May-87-0.0615295757348387No
Aug-87-0.274378441107158No
Nov-87-0.707812731260287No
Feb-88-1.32713576788503No
May-88-1.26088735005012No
Aug-88-0.385615871601474No
Nov-880.519491838133213No
Feb-891.05651779050946No
May-891.03507343838347No
Aug-890.740683601558119No
Nov-890.323267991181549No
Feb-90-0.243262263333456No
May-90-0.447490193132154No
Aug-90-0.460121210955849Yes
Nov-90-0.887711817833731Yes
Feb-91-1.32369599022618Yes
May-91-1.18908825341411No
Aug-91-0.636655846428085No
Nov-91-0.149892271265349No
Feb-92-0.0206367350582051No
May-920.0818627664763517No
Aug-920.300941651954645No
Nov-920.59364383038339No
Feb-930.480121411972367No
May-930.199904760757482No
Aug-930.0434224948286498No
Nov-930.363748515451595No
Feb-940.499512443293957No
May-940.501576033070326No
Aug-940.486407028322845No
Nov-940.658745629182436No
Feb-950.466843723892112No
May-950.427647827163701No
Aug-950.330406101672228No
Nov-950.14113045580325No
Feb-96-0.305625541051636No
May-96-0.515508490836141No
Aug-96-0.320327318354853No
Nov-96-0.104637545959731No
Feb-970.0947597719647159No
May-97-0.000440294258546858No
Aug-97-0.259843289188383No
Nov-97-0.355224111148711No
Feb-98-0.556766494374397No
May-98-0.446306679802962No
Aug-98-0.354527965169875No
Nov-98-1.00946211972996No
Feb-99-1.50316401288681No
May-99-1.17110517153536No
Aug-99-0.556981382135019No
Nov-99-0.266555429756971No
Feb-00-0.549863018064987No
May-00-0.852745350760331No
Aug-00-0.818787067737972No
Nov-00-0.543224941495942No
Feb-01-0.458131295275415No
May-01-0.471647130949287Yes
Aug-01-0.0468399381292766Yes
Nov-010.30093162112083Yes
Feb-020.577476724451451No
May-020.730274373410814No
Aug-020.722934877089262No
Nov-020.0108232750686544No
Feb-03-0.397823250764734No
May-030.0524810706782688No
Aug-030.556770392397869No
Nov-031.04523789744637No
Feb-041.44285856407536No
May-041.40349734974776No
Aug-041.1627851786244No
Nov-041.18996856936358No
Feb-051.4011408408711No
May-051.36953919532844No
Aug-051.23358648755238No
Nov-051.37139683587499No
Feb-061.35299544145207No
May-060.956465748992032No
Aug-060.444017267128155No
Nov-060.599816744996712No
Feb-070.926415542639429No
May-070.423508760196484No
Aug-070.01509636908236No
Return to Figure 6


Figure 7
Periods Following ShockActual Investment ResponseCounterfactual Investment Response
0-0.00295-0.002949
1-0.00473-0.003174085655
2-0.00436-0.00275882235715656
3-0.00204-0.000665363161502612
4-0.00120-0.000280647238112911
5-0.00082-0.000200625451140578
6-0.00066-0.000245810337829376
7-0.00049-0.000202261425650957
8-0.00034-0.00013767277007487
9-0.00021-7.8269704550852e-05
10-0.00012-3.95425617851926e-05
11-0.00005-1.55473483096072e-05
12-0.00001-4.15081308136369e-07
130.000029.78806536084134e-06
140.000031.65680077750956e-05
150.000042.06986279746981e-05
160.000052.27745636477839e-05
170.000052.33675213643035e-05
180.000052.29563411278298e-05
190.000052.19018482639669e-05
200.000052.04588417399648e-05
Return to Figure 7


Figure 8
Periods Following ShockCumulative Difference between Actual and Counterfactual Investment ResponseCumulative Difference between Actual and Counterfactual Profits Response
000.00000
100.00000
20.0015568727340.00544
30.003158673016725970.00701
40.004531935215154440.00633
50.005454127405393480.00521
60.006070625201286320.00454
70.006486456929626990.00418
80.006777510719400450.00396
90.006976517297382290.00379
100.007106132059224990.00367
110.007183321505527670.00359
120.007222622926300120.00353
130.007235370722013290.00351
140.007230141391420980.00350
150.007213197670713180.00350
160.007189082820283240.00351
170.00716105336173330.00352
180.007131411109001970.00354
190.007101743511784380.00355
200.00707310739120660.00357
Return to Figure 8
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