Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

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Industrial production increased 1.3 percent in November after edging up in October; output is now reported to have risen at a faster pace over the period from June through October than previously published. In November, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, with widespread gains among industries. The rise in factory output was well above its average monthly pace of 0.3 percent over the previous five months and was its largest gain since February. In November, the output of utilities jumped 5.1 percent, as weather that was colder than usual for the month boosted demand for heating. The index for mining decreased 0.1 percent. At 106.7 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in November was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.8 percentage point in November to 80.1 percent, a rate equal to its long-run (1972–2013) average.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary

Market Groups

In November, the indexes for all of the major market groups advanced. The gain of 2.5 percent in consumer goods was its largest since August 1998. The production of all major durable and nondurable categories of consumer goods rose, with the largest increases registered by consumer energy products and automotive products. The output of business equipment moved up 1.2 percent because of sizable gains for transit equipment and for industrial and other equipment. The index for business supplies rose 1.2 percent, its second strong increase in the past three months. The production of materials advanced 0.8 percent, with substantial gains in the indexes for all of its major categories.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output rose 1.1 percent in November, and the rates of change for prior months are stronger than reported previously. Factory output is now estimated to have been above its late-2007 pre-recession peak in both October and November. In November, the indexes for both durables and nondurables increased more than 1 percent, and the output of every major industry group increased or remained unchanged. Among durable goods industries, the output of motor vehicles and parts jumped 5.1 percent as a result of an increase of 900,000 units at an annual rate in total motor vehicle assemblies. Miscellaneous manufacturing, wood products, and machinery each recorded gains exceeding 1 percent. Among nondurable goods industries, output advances of more than 2 percent were registered by petroleum and coal products and by apparel and leather. The indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products and for plastics and rubber products both increased 1.4 percent.

The capacity utilization rate for manufacturing moved up 0.8 percentage point in November to 78.4 percent, a rate 0.3 percentage point below its long-run average. The operating rates for nondurable goods and durables goods increased, and the rate for other manufacturing (non-NAICS) remained unchanged. The utilization rate for mines fell 0.8 percentage point to 87.9 percent, while the rate for utilities increased 3.9 percentage points to 82.4 percent.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization in the second quarter of 2015. New annual benchmark data for 2012 and 2013 for manufacturing will be incorporated, as well as other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels). The weights for market-group splits of the indexes will be updated with information from the 2007 benchmark input-output accounts from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2014 from the Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity, which covers manufacturing, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations.

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