Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

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Release Date: January 18, 2019
100 Years of the Industrial Production Index Notice Below
Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Notice Below

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after rising 0.4 percent in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 3.8 percent. In December, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, its largest gain since February 2018. The output of mines rose 1.5 percent, but the index for utilities fell 6.3 percent, as warmer-than-usual temperatures lowered the demand for heating. At 109.9 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.0 percent higher in December than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.1 percentage point in December to 78.7 percent, a rate that is 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary
Seasonally adjusted
Industrial production 2012=100 Percent change
2018 2018 Dec. '17 to
Dec. '18
July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[r] Nov.[r] Dec.[p] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[r] Nov.[r] Dec.[p]
       
Total index 107.9 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.6 109.9 .4 .8 .1 .2 .4 .3 4.0
Previous estimates 107.9 108.8 108.9 108.7 109.4   .4 .8 .1 -.2 .6    
       
Major market groups
Final Products 102.4 103.2 103.7 104.3 103.9 104.1 .2 .7 .5 .6 -.3 .2 2.6
Consumer goods 105.5 106.0 106.2 107.0 106.3 106.3 .3 .4 .3 .7 -.6 .0 1.0
Business equipment 99.7 101.2 102.3 102.6 102.9 103.4 .2 1.6 1.1 .3 .2 .5 5.0
Nonindustrial supplies 107.0 107.0 106.7 107.0 107.0 107.3 -.2 .0 -.3 .3 .0 .3 .7
Construction 114.1 114.4 113.7 113.3 113.5 115.3 -.1 .3 -.7 -.4 .2 1.6 2.1
Materials 112.6 113.9 113.9 113.7 115.0 115.5 .8 1.1 .0 -.1 1.1 .5 6.1
       
Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below) 104.4 104.9 105.1 105.0 105.0 106.2 .4 .5 .2 -.2 .1 1.1 3.2
Previous estimates 104.3 104.8 105.0 104.9 104.9   .3 .5 .2 -.1 .0    
Mining 123.8 126.6 127.3 127.1 128.5 130.5 .8 2.3 .6 -.2 1.1 1.5 13.4
Utilities 104.2 105.4 104.1 107.5 108.9 102.0 .2 1.1 -1.3 3.3 1.3 -6.3 -4.3
Capacity utilization Percent of capacity Capacity
growth
Average
1972-
2017 		1988-
89
high 		1990-
91
low 		1994-
95
high 		 
2009
low 		 
2017
Dec. 		   
2018 Dec. '17 to
Dec. '18
July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[r] Oct.[r] Nov.[r] Dec.[p]
       
Total industry 79.8 85.2 78.8 85.0 66.7 77.3 78.0 78.5 78.4 78.4 78.6 78.7 2.1
Previous estimates             78.0 78.5 78.4 78.1 78.5    
       
Manufacturing (see note below) 78.3 85.6 77.3 84.6 63.7 75.2 75.7 76.0 76.1 75.9 75.8 76.5 1.4
Previous estimates             75.7 76.0 76.0 75.8 75.7    
Mining 87.0 86.3 84.3 88.6 78.2 88.6 92.3 93.9 93.9 93.3 93.9 94.8 6.0
Utilities 85.3 92.9 84.4 92.9 78.3 79.9 77.3 78.0 76.9 79.3 80.2 75.0 2.0
       
Stage-of-process groups
Crude 86.0 87.8 84.7 90.0 76.4 86.9 90.6 91.9 91.9 91.4 92.1 92.8 4.3
Primary and semifinished 80.4 86.5 78.1 87.7 63.8 76.4 75.9 76.3 75.9 76.3 76.6 76.0 1.5
Finished 76.9 83.4 77.3 80.7 66.6 74.3 75.0 75.3 75.7 75.5 75.2 76.0 1.3
r Revised. p Preliminary.
Market Groups

The major market groups posted broad-based gains in December, though consumer energy products, business supplies, and energy materials all recorded decreases because of the drop in the output of utilities.

Durable consumer goods posted the largest gain among the major non-energy market groups, nearly 2 3/4 percent, followed by a gain of about 2 1/4 percent for defense and space equipment and an increase of almost 1 1/2 percent for construction supplies. The indexes for non-energy materials and for non-energy nondurable consumer goods rose nearly 1 percent, while the index for business equipment moved up 1/2 percent.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output advanced 1.1 percent in December and increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter; the index rose 2.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2017 and the fourth quarter of 2018. Within durable manufacturing, motor vehicles and parts posted a gain of 4.7 percent in December, and nonmetallic mineral products recorded an increase of nearly 3 percent; the indexes for several other durable goods industries advanced more than 1 percent. Among nondurables, the index for petroleum and coal products jumped 3 1/2 percent. Most other major categories of nondurables posted gains of less than 1 percent. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) increased 0.2 percent.

Mining output rose 1.5 percent in December, with gains in oil and gas extraction, coal mining, and support activities for mining (mainly oil and gas well drilling); the index for mining was 13.4 percent above its level from a year earlier. The output of utilities fell 6.3 percent in December, with both electric and gas utilities posting sharp declines.

Capacity utilization for manufacturing jumped 0.7 percentage point in December to 76.5 percent, about 2 percentage points below its long-run average. The utilization rate for mining increased to 94.8 percent and remained well above its long-run average of 87.0 percent. The operating rate for utilities fell to 75.0 percent, a rate that is about 10 percentage points below its long-run average.

100 Years of the Industrial Production Index

With this release, the index of industrial production comprises a full 100 years of monthly data, from January 1919 to December 2018. A brief history of the index is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/100_years_of_ip_data.htm.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization around the end of the first quarter of 2019. The Economic Census for 2017 will not be available from the U.S. Census Bureau by early 2019, so no new annual benchmark data will be included for manufacturing. Other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels), will be incorporated. The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2018 from the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations.

Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.

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Last Update: January 18, 2019