Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

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Release Date: October 16, 2020
Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Notice Below

Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. The index increased at an annual rate of 39.8 percent for the third quarter as a whole. Although production has recovered more than half of its February to April decline, the September reading was still 7.1 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent in September and was 6.4 percent below February's level. The output of utilities dropped 5.6 percent, as demand for air conditioning fell by more than usual in September. Mining production increased 1.7 percent in September; even so, it was 14.8 percent below a year earlier. At 101.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 7.3 percent lower in September than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.5 percentage point in September to 71.5 percent, a rate that is 8.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 7.3 percentage points above its low in April.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary
Seasonally adjusted
Industrial production 2012=100 Percent change
2020 2020 Sept. '19 to
Sept. '20
Apr.[r] May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[p] Apr.[r] May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[p]
       
Total index 91.3 91.9 97.6 101.7 102.2 101.5 -12.7 .7 6.2 4.2 .4 -.6 -7.3
Previous estimates 91.0 91.9 97.5 101.0 101.4   -12.9 1.0 6.1 3.5 .4    
       
Major market groups
Final Products 82.3 85.6 93.0 97.8 98.6 97.4 -14.9 4.0 8.7 5.1 .9 -1.3 -5.1
Consumer goods 87.7 90.9 98.7 103.5 104.2 102.5 -12.3 3.6 8.5 4.9 .7 -1.6 -2.1
Business equipment 69.3 74.2 83.1 88.7 90.4 89.4 -23.2 7.0 12.0 6.8 2.0 -1.2 -11.1
Nonindustrial supplies 91.9 93.6 96.6 99.0 100.3 99.6 -12.1 1.9 3.1 2.5 1.3 -.7 -8.2
Construction 101.2 104.3 106.1 107.9 109.5 109.6 -12.4 3.0 1.8 1.7 1.4 .1 -6.4
Materials 99.0 96.8 101.6 105.6 105.3 105.3 -10.9 -2.3 5.0 3.9 -.2 .0 -8.9
       
Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below) 83.9 86.9 93.5 97.4 98.5 98.3 -15.8 3.6 7.6 4.2 1.2 -.3 -6.0
Previous estimates 83.6 86.9 93.4 97.0 97.9   -16.1 3.9 7.5 3.9 1.0    
Mining 121.8 108.1 110.6 114.7 112.0 113.9 -6.8 -11.3 2.4 3.7 -2.4 1.7 -14.8
Utilities 100.9 100.3 101.7 106.6 105.5 99.6 1.8 -.6 1.4 4.9 -1.0 -5.6 -6.1

Capacity utilization Percent of capacity Capacity
growth
Average
1972-
2019 		1988-
89
high 		1990-
91
low 		1994-
95
high 		 
2009
low 		 
2019
Sept. 		   
2020 Sept. '19 to
Sept. '20
Apr.[r] May[r] June[r] July[r] Aug.[r] Sept.[p]
       
Total industry 79.8 85.1 78.8 85.0 66.7 77.4 64.2 64.7 68.7 71.6 72.0 71.5 .4
Previous estimates             64.1 64.7 68.7 71.1 71.4    
       
Manufacturing (see note below) 78.2 85.5 77.3 84.6 63.7 75.1 60.1 62.2 67.0 69.8 70.7 70.5 .1
Previous estimates             59.9 62.2 66.9 69.5 70.2    
Mining 87.2 86.3 84.3 88.6 78.3 90.2 81.9 72.8 74.7 77.7 76.1 77.6 -.9
Utilities 85.2 93.2 84.7 93.2 78.2 77.2 72.2 71.6 72.4 75.7 74.7 70.4 3.0
       
Stage-of-process groups
Crude 86.2 87.8 84.7 90.0 76.4 88.4 80.4 74.0 75.9 78.1 77.3 78.6 -.7
Primary and semifinished 80.3 86.4 78.1 87.8 63.9 75.7 62.4 63.7 66.9 69.5 70.1 69.1 .5
Finished 76.7 83.3 77.3 80.6 66.5 74.1 58.8 61.5 67.2 70.8 71.3 70.8 .6
[r] Revised. [p] Preliminary.
Market Groups

Most major market groups posted decreases in September. The index for consumer goods fell 1.6 percent, led by declines of more than 4 percent for automotive products and consumer energy products. The production of business equipment fell 1.2 percent, as a decrease for information processing equipment was partly offset by an increase for transit equipment. The output of defense and space equipment rose 2.1 percent, while the indexes for construction supplies and materials were little changed.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent in September, but it advanced at an annual rate of 53.7 percent in the third quarter. The index for durable manufacturing fell 0.5 percent in September. Increases for primary metals, for fabricated metal products, and for aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment were more than outweighed by decreases elsewhere; most notably, the indexes for computer and electronic products and for motor vehicles and parts fell more than 2 1/2 percent. The index for nondurables was unchanged, as gains for textiles and product mills, for printing and support, and for chemicals were offset by declines for petroleum and coal products, for apparel and leather, and for paper. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) decreased 0.5 percent.

The index for utilities moved down 5.6 percent in September, with a drop in the output of electric utilities more than offsetting an increase for natural gas utilities. Mining was little changed for the third quarter as a whole but increased 1.7 percent in September, boosted by an increase in oil and gas extraction; in addition, oil and gas well drilling edged up following six consecutive months of declines.

Capacity utilization for manufacturing was 70.5 percent in September, 10.4 percentage points higher than its trough in April but still 7.7 percentage points below its long-run average. The operating rate for durables decreased 0.4 percentage point to 69.4 percent, and the rate for nondurables was unchanged at 72.9 percent. Capacity utilization for durables was 15.5 percentage points above its April low but still 5.4 percentage points below its pre-pandemic February level. The rate for nondurables has risen 5.3 percentage points since April but was still 3.5 percentage points below its February level. The operating rate for mining moved up to 77.6 percent in September, while the rate for utilities fell to 70.4 percent.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the indexes of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization in early 2021. New annual benchmark data for manufacturing for 2017 and 2018 will be incorporated, as well as other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels). The weights for market-group splits of the industry-level indexes will be updated with information from the 2012 benchmark input-output accounts from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present.

Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data for manufacturing through the fourth quarter of 2019 from the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations.

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Last Update: October 16, 2020