Lecture Two: The Federal Reserve after WWII
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- How did the Fed cooperate with the U.S. Treasury during and immediately after World War II?
- What were the economic consequences of keeping interest rates low?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 13: The Fed-Treasury Accord and central bank independence
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- Describe the Fed-Treasury Accord and evaluate whether it was effective in improving economic conditions. Discuss the implications of the agreement.
- Identify the various ways in which the Federal Reserve is insulated from political influence.
- Compare the costs and benefits to society of central bank independence.
Lecture 2, Video Clip 14: Monetary policy in the '50s and early '60s
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- What was a "lean against the wind" policy? Was it effective in the 1950s and early 1960s?
- Describe monetary policy in the mid-1960s and into the 1970s? What was the rationale of the policy?
- Was the trade-off between inflation and unemployment relevant to the choice of policy? Why or why not?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 15: Mid-'60s and '70s monetary policy
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- Evaluate the appropriateness of policy in the mid-1960s and into the 1970s and explain how policy impacted economic conditions.
- Describe exacerbating factors other than monetary policy that may have contributed to the high rates of inflation and numerous recessions from the mid-1960s through the 1970s.
Lecture 2, Video Clip 16: Central bankers have imperfect knowledge
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- Why was the idea of a permanent tradeoff between unemployment and inflation so important in contributing to inflationary conditions? How did that lead to a concept of "fine-tuning"?
- Why were the estimates of full-employment levels of unemployment so important?
- Explain the roles and importance of data collection and forecasting in monetary policy. Why is accuracy in forecasting so important?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 17: Volcker disinflation
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- What does "disinflation" mean? Is it desirable? Why or why not?
- What was the role of monetary policy in contributing to disinflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s?
- Describe the conditions leading up to the 1981-82 recession.
- Summarize monetary policy before and during the recession. What were Chairman Volker's goals?
- Why was there significant political pressure against the policy?
- How did this experience affect monetary policy after the recession and even today? Will the U.S. ever have a similar phenomenon to the Great Inflation? Why or why not?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 18: The Great Moderation
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- Define the term "Great Moderation." Give examples of its characteristics?
- What happened to the rate of growth of real GDP? What happened to inflation rates?
- What happened to the length and frequency of recessionary periods?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 19: Causes of the Great Moderation
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- What was the role of monetary policy during the Great Moderation?
- How could changes in business practices, such as improved inventory management, make a difference in recessionary pressures and inflation?
- Were there financial crises during the Great Moderation? What were the effects?
- What can we learn from the Great Moderation? How does that period affect monetary and fiscal policy today?
- Compare monetary policy since the Volcker era to monetary policy in the 1960s and 1970s. What are the key differences? Which was the more effective, and why?
- Explain why financial crises became less of a concern during the Great Moderation? Did they disappear?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 20: The housing bubble
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- How large was the increase in housing prices?
- Describe what caused the rapid rise in housing prices.
- What is a bubble? Why are rising asset prices not necessarily a positive event for everyone?
- What are several possible causes of the bubble?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 21: Deterioration in lending standards
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- Describe the characteristics of the decline in lending standards.
- Explain why lending standards seemed to deteriorate. Give examples of changing incentives.
- How could deterioration in lending standards be caused by a bubble and at the same time contribute to the housing bubble?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 22: Bursting of the bubble: Declining demand, falling prices
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- List several causes of the bursting of the housing bubble. Explain how each could contribute to the decline in housing prices.
- What were the effects of the bursting housing-price bubble on the rest of the economy?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 23: Financial crisis triggers vs. vulnerabilities
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- Define a financial crisis trigger and give examples.
- Define a financial crisis vulnerability and give examples.
- How did the triggers and vulnerabilities lead to serious declines in economic conditions? Why was the collapse in housing prices so much more serious than the collapse of dot-com stock prices in 2001? How did the Great Moderation affect the vulnerability of the economy to a serious financial trigger?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 24: Private-sector vulnerabilities
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- What were the private-sector vulnerabilities that amplified the effects of the triggers?
- Explain how increased leverage, financial institutions' failure to monitor their own risk adequately, increased short-term funding, and new exotic financial instruments amplified the effects of the triggers.
Lecture 2, Video Clip 25: Public-sector vulnerabilities
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- What were the public-sector vulnerabilities that amplified the effects of the triggers?
- What were the gaps in the regulatory structure? How did those gaps lead to a worsening of the financial crisis?
- What additional failures by regulatory agencies took place during the financial crisis? Explain how each contributed to a worsening of the crisis.
- What are systemic problems?
- How did systemic problems differ from problems with individual banks or small groups of banks? Why did they receive insufficient attention?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 26: Role of monetary policy in contributing to the crisis
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- Summarize the evidence about the role of monetary policy in contributing to the crisis.
- Is that evidence convincing one way or another?
Lecture 2, Video Clip 27: Economic consequences of the crisis
Questions for Classroom Discussion:
- Summarize the effects of the financial crisis on financial markets.
- How did the collapse of the housing bubble affect housing construction? Explain why.
- Describe how and why unemployment changed during the bubble and the subsequent financial crisis.