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As the U.S. is Derisking from China, Other Foreign U.S. Suppliers Are Relying More on Chinese Imports
Figure 1. U.S. suppliers relying more on Chinese goods
Percent
Make Full ScreenDate | China's share of U.S. Imports | China's share of Average U.S. Supplier's Imports |
---|---|---|
2017-07-01 | 21.86 | 14.49 |
2018-07-01 | 21.57 | 14.31 |
2019-07-01 | 18.40 | 14.95 |
2020-07-01 | 19.01 | 16.60 |
2021-07-01 | 18.46 | 16.72 |
2022-07-01 | 17.07 | 16.37 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.
Figure 2. Share of goods imports versus value-added as a share of gross exports
Panel a: Trends over time
Percent
Date | ASEAN | EU | Canada | Mexico | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
China's Share of Total Goods Imports | F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports | China's Share of Total Goods Imports | F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports | China's Share of Total Goods Imports | F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports | China's Share of Total Goods Imports | F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports | |
2012-07-01 | 18.71 | 7 | 16.18 | 6 | 10.98 | 4.5 | 15.36 | 7.2 |
2013-07-01 | 20.32 | 8 | 16.55 | 6 | 11.09 | 4.5 | 16.09 | 7.33 |
2014-07-01 | 22.08 | 9 | 17.89 | 6.5 | 11.46 | 5.1 | 16.56 | 8.27 |
2015-07-01 | 25.59 | 10.17 | 20.33 | 7 | 12.25 | 6 | 17.71 | 8.93 |
2016-07-01 | 26.54 | 9.5 | 20.62 | 7 | 12.07 | 5.7 | 17.96 | 8.8 |
2017-07-01 | 26.20 | 9.67 | 20.22 | 7 | 12.62 | 5.7 | 17.64 | 8.8 |
2018-07-01 | 26.26 | 10.33 | 19.93 | 7.5 | 12.68 | 5.7 | 17.99 | 9.33 |
2019-07-01 | 27.96 | 11.33 | 20.46 | 8 | 12.46 | 6 | 18.24 | 9.33 |
2020-07-01 | 29.85 | 13.17 | 22.65 | 9 | 14.10 | 6.9 | 19.19 | 10.67 |
Panel b: Correlations
Percent
Date | ASEAN | EU | Canada | Mexico | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
China's Share of Total Goods Imports | F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports | China's Share of Total Goods Imports | F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports | China's Share of Total Goods Imports | F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports | China's Share of Total Goods Imports | F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports | |
2012-07-01 | 18.71 | 4.2 | 16.18 | 1.2 | 10.98 | 1.5 | 15.36 | 5.4 |
2013-07-01 | 20.32 | 4.8 | 16.55 | 1.2 | 11.09 | 1.5 | 16.09 | 5.5 |
2014-07-01 | 22.08 | 5.4 | 17.89 | 1.3 | 11.46 | 1.7 | 16.56 | 6.2 |
2015-07-01 | 25.59 | 6.1 | 20.33 | 1.4 | 12.25 | 2 | 17.71 | 6.7 |
2016-07-01 | 26.54 | 5.7 | 20.62 | 1.4 | 12.07 | 1.9 | 17.96 | 6.6 |
2017-07-01 | 26.20 | 5.8 | 20.22 | 1.4 | 12.62 | 1.9 | 17.64 | 6.6 |
2018-07-01 | 26.26 | 6.2 | 19.93 | 1.5 | 12.68 | 1.9 | 17.99 | 7 |
2019-07-01 | 27.96 | 6.8 | 20.46 | 1.6 | 12.46 | 2 | 18.24 | 7 |
2020-07-01 | 29.85 | 7.9 | 22.65 | 1.8 | 14.10 | 2.3 | 19.19 | 8 |
Source: OCED; UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations
Figure 3. Largest U.S. suppliers are relying more on Chinese goods
Percent
Make Full ScreenDate | Canada | Germany | Japan | Mexico | South Korea | Vietnam |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017-07-01 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.27 |
2018-07-01 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.28 |
2019-07-01 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.30 |
2020-07-01 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.32 |
2021-07-01 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.33 |
2022-07-01 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.33 |
Note: The percent represents the share of total goods imports coming from China.
Source: UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.
Figure 4. U.S. is shifting toward countries with relatively stronger trade ties with China
a) Change in share of U.S. goods imports, 2017–22
Percentage points
Make Full ScreenCountry | Percentage points |
---|---|
Vietnam | 1.9 |
Taiwan | 1 |
S. Korea | 0.5 |
India | 0.6 |
Canada | 0.7 |
Mexico | 0.7 |
China | -5.1 |
b) China’s share of goods imports in 2017 for biggest gainers in U.S. market share from 2017–22
Percentage points
Make Full ScreenCountry | Percent |
---|---|
Canada | 12.62 |
S. Korea | 20.45 |
Mexico | 17.64 |
Taiwan | 19.29 |
India | 16.20 |
Vietnam | 27.45 |
Note: The dashed line shows China's share of goods imports by the average U.S. source in 2017.
Source: UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.
Figure 5. Change in China's share of average U.S. supplier's goods imports, relative to 2017
Percentage points
Make Full ScreenDate | Suppliers' increased linkage with China | Compositional shift in U.S. suppliers | Covariance |
---|---|---|---|
2018-07-01 | 0.01 | -0.18 | 0.00 |
2019-07-01 | 0.39 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
2020-07-01 | 1.75 | 0.30 | 0.07 |
2021-07-01 | 1.82 | 0.30 | 0.11 |
2022-07-01 | 1.29 | 0.44 | 0.16 |
Source: UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.
Figure 6. Data vs. Counterfactual covariance
Percentage points
Make Full ScreenDate | Counterfactual covariance | Observed covariance |
---|---|---|
2017-07-01 | 0 | 0 |
2018-07-01 | -0.006548195 | -0.003980415 |
2019-07-01 | 0.039656198 | -0.00145356 |
2020-07-01 | 0.424506353 | 0.070275095 |
2021-07-01 | 0.497890573 | 0.115268516 |
2022-07-01 | 0.392394459 | 0.164576547 |
Source: UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.