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As the U.S. is Derisking from China, Other Foreign U.S. Suppliers Are Relying More on Chinese Imports

Figure 1. U.S. suppliers relying more on Chinese goods

Percent

Date China's share of U.S. Imports China's share of Average U.S. Supplier's Imports
2017-07-01 21.86 14.49
2018-07-01 21.57 14.31
2019-07-01 18.40 14.95
2020-07-01 19.01 16.60
2021-07-01 18.46 16.72
2022-07-01 17.07 16.37

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.

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Figure 2. Share of goods imports versus value-added as a share of gross exports

Panel a: Trends over time
Percent

Date ASEAN EU Canada Mexico
China's Share of Total Goods Imports F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports China's Share of Total Goods Imports F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports China's Share of Total Goods Imports F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports China's Share of Total Goods Imports F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports
2012-07-01 18.71 7 16.18 6 10.98 4.5 15.36 7.2
2013-07-01 20.32 8 16.55 6 11.09 4.5 16.09 7.33
2014-07-01 22.08 9 17.89 6.5 11.46 5.1 16.56 8.27
2015-07-01 25.59 10.17 20.33 7 12.25 6 17.71 8.93
2016-07-01 26.54 9.5 20.62 7 12.07 5.7 17.96 8.8
2017-07-01 26.20 9.67 20.22 7 12.62 5.7 17.64 8.8
2018-07-01 26.26 10.33 19.93 7.5 12.68 5.7 17.99 9.33
2019-07-01 27.96 11.33 20.46 8 12.46 6 18.24 9.33
2020-07-01 29.85 13.17 22.65 9 14.10 6.9 19.19 10.67

Panel b: Correlations
Percent

Date ASEAN EU Canada Mexico
China's Share of Total Goods Imports F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports China's Share of Total Goods Imports F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports China's Share of Total Goods Imports F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports China's Share of Total Goods Imports F.V.A. Share of Gross Exports
2012-07-01 18.71 4.2 16.18 1.2 10.98 1.5 15.36 5.4
2013-07-01 20.32 4.8 16.55 1.2 11.09 1.5 16.09 5.5
2014-07-01 22.08 5.4 17.89 1.3 11.46 1.7 16.56 6.2
2015-07-01 25.59 6.1 20.33 1.4 12.25 2 17.71 6.7
2016-07-01 26.54 5.7 20.62 1.4 12.07 1.9 17.96 6.6
2017-07-01 26.20 5.8 20.22 1.4 12.62 1.9 17.64 6.6
2018-07-01 26.26 6.2 19.93 1.5 12.68 1.9 17.99 7
2019-07-01 27.96 6.8 20.46 1.6 12.46 2 18.24 7
2020-07-01 29.85 7.9 22.65 1.8 14.10 2.3 19.19 8

Source: OCED; UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations

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Figure 3. Largest U.S. suppliers are relying more on Chinese goods

Percent

Date Canada Germany Japan Mexico South Korea Vietnam
2017-07-01 0.13 0.10 0.24 0.18 0.20 0.27
2018-07-01 0.13 0.10 0.23 0.18 0.20 0.28
2019-07-01 0.12 0.10 0.23 0.18 0.21 0.30
2020-07-01 0.14 0.12 0.26 0.19 0.23 0.32
2021-07-01 0.14 0.12 0.24 0.20 0.23 0.33
2022-07-01 0.14 0.13 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.33

Note: The percent represents the share of total goods imports coming from China.

Source: UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.

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Figure 4. U.S. is shifting toward countries with relatively stronger trade ties with China

a) Change in share of U.S. goods imports, 2017–22

Percentage points

Country Percentage points
Vietnam 1.9
Taiwan 1
S. Korea 0.5
India 0.6
Canada 0.7
Mexico 0.7
China -5.1

b) China’s share of goods imports in 2017 for biggest gainers in U.S. market share from 2017–22

Percentage points

Country Percent
Canada 12.62
S. Korea 20.45
Mexico 17.64
Taiwan 19.29
India 16.20
Vietnam 27.45

Note: The dashed line shows China's share of goods imports by the average U.S. source in 2017.

Source: UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.

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Figure 5. Change in China's share of average U.S. supplier's goods imports, relative to 2017

Percentage points

Date Suppliers' increased linkage with China Compositional shift in U.S. suppliers Covariance
2018-07-01 0.01 -0.18 0.00
2019-07-01 0.39 0.07 0.00
2020-07-01 1.75 0.30 0.07
2021-07-01 1.82 0.30 0.11
2022-07-01 1.29 0.44 0.16

Source: UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.

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Figure 6. Data vs. Counterfactual covariance

Percentage points

Date Counterfactual covariance Observed covariance
2017-07-01 0 0
2018-07-01 -0.006548195 -0.003980415
2019-07-01 0.039656198 -0.00145356
2020-07-01 0.424506353 0.070275095
2021-07-01 0.497890573 0.115268516
2022-07-01 0.392394459 0.164576547

Source: UN Comtrade; FRB Staff Calculations.

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Last Update: August 02, 2024