Accessible Version
Do People Care More About Inflation or Wage Growth? Accessible Data
Figure 1. Education Group: Financially Worse-off 12-months ago
Figure 1 shows the proportion of consumers reporting that they were financially worse-off than 12 months ago for each of the three education groups (red, blue, and black lines for no college, some college, and college education, respectively). Shaded areas represent recessions. The vertical blue line represents that start of the COVID 19 pandemic. The worse-off well being measures for all education groups rise in times of economic uncertainty, such as during the Great Financial Crisis or in the high inflation period after the COVID 19 pandemic. The gap between the non-college-educated group and the college-educated group shrinks during the Great Financial Crisis and grows after the COVID 19 pandemic.
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.
Source: Michigan Surveys of Consumers and authors’ calculations.
Figure 2. Wage Growth and Inflation by Education Group
Figure 2 shows three panels. The top panel shows CPI inflation for each of the three education groups (red, blue, and black lines for no college, some college, and college education, respectively). Shaded areas represent recessions. The vertical blue line represents that start of the COVID 19 pandemic. CPI inflation for all groups increases sharply after the COVID-19 pandemic, but more so for non-college-educated individuals than for college educated individuals. Over the entire period, non-college-educated individuals experience slightly higher inflation than college educated individuals do.
The middle panel shows wage growth for each of the three education groups (red, blue, and black lines for no college, some college, and college education, respectively). Shaded areas represent recessions. The vertical blue line represents that start of the COVID 19 pandemic. Wage growth for all groups increases sharply after the COVID-19 pandemic, but more so for non-college-educated individuals than for college-educated individuals. Over the rest of the period, low educated groups tend to experience lower wage growth, while high educated groups tend to experience higher wage growth.
The bottom panel shows real wage growth for each of the three education groups (red, blue, and black lines for no college, some college, and college education, respectively). Shaded areas represent recessions. The vertical blue line represents that start of the COVID 19 pandemic. Real wage growth for all groups decreases sharply after the COVID-19 pandemic, but more so for non-college-educated individuals than for college-educated individuals. Over the rest of the period, real wage growth converges for all educations groups. Over the rest of the time period, wage growth for all groups moves together, with lower education groups experiencing slightly lower wage growth.
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020. All panels show 12-month rates of change.
Source: BLS and authors’ calculations.
Figure 3. Wage Growth and Inflation by Education Group
Figure 3 shows the difference between the college- and non-college-educated groups’ experienced CPI inflation, wage grow, and the proportion of individuals indicating they were financially worse-off than 12 months ago. CPI inflation and wage growth are plotted on the left vertical axis, while the financially worse-off measure is plotted on the right vertical axis. Shaded areas represent recessions. The vertical blue line represents that start of the COVID 19 pandemic. CPI inflation is below zero for most of the time period, indicating that college-educated individuals generally experienced less inflation than non-college-educated individuals, with this measure falling the lowest after the COVID 19 pandemic. Wage growth is above zero for most of the time period, indicating that college-educated individuals experienced more wage growth than non-college-educated individuals, with this measure dipping below zero after the COVID 19 pandemic. Wellbeing is below zero for almost the entire time period, indicating that college educated individuals experienced more inflation than non-college educated individuals.
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.
Source: BLS and authors’ calculations.