Accessible Version

From Plans to Starts: Examining Recent Trends in Manufacturing Plant Construction, Accessible Data

Figure 1: Construction Put in Place (CPIP), Manufacturing vs. Other

Left Panel: (a) Percent Changes
Units: Percent (12-month change)

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Date Manufacturing Other
19-Jan 7.469 -7.924
19-Feb 8.607 -9.227
19-Mar 11.745 -5.677
19-Apr 13.276 -5.051
19-May 8.229 -2.096
19-Jun 9.069 2.368
19-Jul 11.371 4.298
19-Aug 4.265 6.510
19-Sep 4.201 8.094
19-Oct 2.643 9.784
19-Nov 6.173 14.186
19-Dec 0.527 11.043
20-Jan -1.379 12.037
20-Feb -6.826 10.448
20-Mar -6.709 6.728
20-Apr -13.030 2.470
20-May -12.348 -0.685
20-Jun -10.351 -1.722
20-Jul -9.732 -4.363
20-Aug -10.407 -8.381
20-Sep -11.804 -8.777
20-Oct -6.934 -9.234
20-Nov -11.642 -10.867
20-Dec -9.276 -10.289
21-Jan -4.869 -8.907
21-Feb -4.027 -9.383
21-Mar -1.904 -6.307
21-Apr 0.617 -4.300
21-May 1.527 -4.904
21-Jun 1.329 -5.494
21-Jul 2.105 -4.748
21-Aug 3.559 -4.101
21-Sep 5.023 -5.803
21-Oct 4.889 -8.017
21-Nov 13.182 -7.752
21-Dec 10.541 -7.987
22-Jan 12.934 -7.062
22-Feb 14.701 -5.086
22-Mar 14.542 -7.408
22-Apr 25.305 -4.503
22-May 29.705 -4.281
22-Jun 25.024 -4.386
22-Jul 31.830 -3.807
22-Aug 32.179 -3.362
22-Sep 41.130 -1.051
22-Oct 38.600 0.913
22-Nov 41.213 2.328
22-Dec 47.409 4.558
23-Jan 46.131 1.952
23-Feb 47.859 1.945
23-Mar 54.410 2.811
23-Apr 58.924 1.816
23-May 54.553 2.406
23-Jun 59.193 2.502
23-Jul 48.489 2.081
23-Aug 52.150 4.651
23-Sep 39.529 5.135
23-Oct 44.088 4.133
23-Nov 40.646 4.425
23-Dec 36.906 2.983
24-Jan 37.302 3.231
24-Feb 34.780 2.083
24-Mar 26.861 1.549
24-Apr 19.795 -0.363
24-May 21.846 -0.562
24-Jun 20.898 -0.040
24-Jul 18.686 -0.440
24-Aug 16.344 -2.318
24-Sep 19.569 -3.221

Right Panel: (b) Level
Units: Billions of 2017 Dollars

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Date Manufacturing Other
19-Jan 72.920 361.120
19-Feb 76.308 363.465
19-Mar 76.357 370.475
19-Apr 77.139 373.065
19-May 75.432 382.726
19-Jun 75.777 389.426
19-Jul 75.843 396.615
19-Aug 75.201 405.465
19-Sep 74.601 405.889
19-Oct 72.274 409.604
19-Nov 74.186 412.358
19-Dec 73.135 407.157
20-Jan 71.914 404.590
20-Feb 71.099 401.442
20-Mar 71.234 395.402
20-Apr 67.088 382.278
20-May 66.118 380.105
20-Jun 67.933 382.720
20-Jul 68.462 379.309
20-Aug 67.375 371.482
20-Sep 65.795 370.265
20-Oct 67.263 371.782
20-Nov 65.549 367.549
20-Dec 66.351 365.264
21-Jan 68.412 368.551
21-Feb 68.236 363.775
21-Mar 69.878 370.464
21-Apr 67.502 365.842
21-May 67.128 361.466
21-Jun 68.836 361.693
21-Jul 69.903 361.301
21-Aug 69.773 356.247
21-Sep 69.100 348.780
21-Oct 70.551 341.975
21-Nov 74.190 339.056
21-Dec 73.345 336.090
22-Jan 77.261 342.524
22-Feb 78.267 345.272
22-Mar 80.040 343.019
22-Apr 84.583 349.366
22-May 87.068 345.990
22-Jun 86.062 345.829
22-Jul 92.153 347.547
22-Aug 92.225 344.271
22-Sep 97.520 345.113
22-Oct 97.784 345.098
22-Nov 104.766 346.948
22-Dec 108.117 351.410
23-Jan 112.902 349.212
23-Feb 115.725 351.986
23-Mar 123.589 352.661
23-Apr 134.423 355.711
23-May 134.566 354.315
23-Jun 137.004 354.480
23-Jul 136.837 354.779
23-Aug 140.319 360.282
23-Sep 136.070 362.835
23-Oct 140.895 359.361
23-Nov 147.348 362.302
23-Dec 148.019 361.895
24-Jan 155.016 360.495
24-Feb 155.975 359.319
24-Mar 156.787 358.122
24-Apr 161.032 354.420
24-May 163.962 352.324
24-Jun 165.635 354.340
24-Jul 162.407 353.217
24-Aug 163.254 351.930
24-Sep 162.698 351.148

Note: The measures presented in these figures are in real terms; we compute them by taking nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices for the respective sector through Q3. The other category includes power but excludes drilling and mining. The dotted dropline at August 2022 is the month when the CHIPS and IRA were signed into law.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Dodge Data & Analytics.

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Figure 2: Planning and Construction Starts

Left Panel: (a) Planning Starts
Units: Billions of dollars, n.s.a.

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Date Planning Starts
Mar-19 2.825
Apr-19 3.708
May-19 3.812
Jun-19 4.432
Jul-19 7.677
Aug-19 6.630
Sep-19 6.511
Oct-19 2.389
Nov-19 2.534
Dec-19 1.930
Jan-20 3.973
Feb-20 4.383
Mar-20 5.299
Apr-20 2.966
May-20 6.326
Jun-20 5.681
Jul-20 5.748
Aug-20 2.330
Sep-20 2.050
Oct-20 2.302
Nov-20 2.068
Dec-20 3.302
Jan-21 3.184
Feb-21 2.804
Mar-21 13.959
Apr-21 26.217
May-21 28.679
Jun-21 19.888
Jul-21 9.832
Aug-21 9.101
Sep-21 11.357
Oct-21 14.776
Nov-21 25.510
Dec-21 25.186
Jan-22 32.044
Feb-22 20.613
Mar-22 17.844
Apr-22 11.783
May-22 18.992
Jun-22 28.205
Jul-22 28.425
Aug-22 65.737
Sep-22 62.201
Oct-22 57.411
Nov-22 18.689
Dec-22 15.960
Jan-23 17.960
Feb-23 17.310
Mar-23 27.512
Apr-23 27.393
May-23 25.448
Jun-23 12.556
Jul-23 14.564
Aug-23 14.459
Sep-23 13.717
Oct-23 14.397
Nov-23 11.497
Dec-23 11.116
Jan-24 7.921
Feb-24 7.890
Mar-24 9.267
Apr-24 11.396
May-24 12.628
Jun-24 15.548
Jul-24 32.852
Aug-24 32.901
Sep-24 31.158

Right Panel: (b) Construction Starts
Units: Billions of dollars, n.s.a.

Make Full Screen
Date Bottom-up from Dodge Microdata (3-month m.a.) Aggregate Series from Dodge (3-month m.a.)
Mar-19 2.208 2.208
Apr-19 1.922 1.822
May-19 3.008 2.642
Jun-19 2.243 1.845
Jul-19 3.639 3.026
Aug-19 2.728 2.378
Sep-19 3.921 3.603
Oct-19 2.680 2.630
Nov-19 5.060 4.974
Dec-19 3.647 3.528
Jan-20 3.954 3.714
Feb-20 1.958 1.756
Mar-20 2.112 1.943
Apr-20 1.528 1.534
May-20 1.210 1.215
Jun-20 1.126 1.130
Jul-20 1.130 1.127
Aug-20 1.148 1.258
Sep-20 1.180 1.290
Oct-20 1.304 1.398
Nov-20 1.318 1.057
Dec-20 1.438 1.177
Jan-21 1.847 1.602
Feb-21 1.831 1.812
Mar-21 1.727 1.708
Apr-21 1.310 1.289
May-21 1.981 1.970
Jun-21 2.197 2.184
Jul-21 2.806 2.770
Aug-21 2.222 2.094
Sep-21 2.377 2.250
Oct-21 4.988 4.888
Nov-21 4.614 4.614
Dec-21 4.689 4.689
Jan-22 1.973 1.928
Feb-22 6.030 5.976
Mar-22 6.039 5.981
Apr-22 6.083 6.069
May-22 6.624 6.425
Jun-22 6.357 6.162
Jul-22 10.781 10.580
Aug-22 9.913 9.906
Sep-22 12.323 12.325
Oct-22 9.421 9.429
Nov-22 6.696 6.290
Dec-22 9.946 9.530
Jan-23 8.460 7.902
Feb-23 8.898 8.748
Mar-23 6.462 6.342
Apr-23 6.712 6.702
May-23 8.142 8.132
Jun-23 5.411 5.452
Jul-23 4.894 4.967
Aug-23 4.278 3.690
Sep-23 4.847 4.334
Oct-23 9.452 8.940
Nov-23 8.309 8.432
Dec-23 8.923 8.828
Jan-24 6.378 6.274
Feb-24 8.568 6.830
Mar-24 6.954 5.444
Apr-24 5.966 4.427
May-24 3.956 3.760
Jun-24 4.290 3.908
Jul-24 3.892 3.576
Aug-24 3.427 3.436
Sep-24 3.202 3.231

Note: Plan starts and construction starts are 3-month backward-looking moving averages and are in nominal terms. The dotted dropline is at August 2022, the month when the CHIPS and IRA were signed into law. The aggregate series is sent from Dodge directly as an aggregate, while the bottom-up series is constructed from our microdata.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Dodge Data & Analytics.

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Figure 3: Evolution of Plans Over Time

Left Panel: (a) Time-to-Start Shares of Month
Units: Percent of Value as a function of months since first observation of plan.

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Months since first observation of plan Percent of value
1 98.322
2 97.477
3 88.951
4 84.825
5 82.215
6 65.631
7 62.124
8 60.498
9 48.514
10 36.217
11 33.221
12 29.647
13 27.890
14 25.524
15 22.265
16 21.393
17 20.601
18 19.235
19 15.629
20 15.220
21 14.052
22 13.607
23 13.189
24 11.853
25 11.682
26 11.444
27 8.769
28 8.666
29 8.560
30 8.409
31 8.311
32 6.027
33 5.985
34 5.427
35 5.265
36 4.912
37 4.911
38 4.853
39 4.569
40 4.567
41 1.377
42 1.028
43 0.898
44 0.892
45 0.712
46 0.695
47 0.572
48 0.565
49 0.564
50 0.542
51 0.532
52 0.531
53 0.395
54 0.344
57 0.291
58 0.275
59 0.273
60 0.194
61 0.177
62 0.176
63 0.090
66 0.088
67 0.052
72 0.051
74 0.000
75 0.000

Right Panel: (b) Value of Abandons
Units: Billions of dollars, n.s.a.

Make Full Screen
Date 3-month m.a. of abandons
Mar-19 0.674
Apr-19 0.832
May-19 0.563
Jun-19 0.483
Jul-19 0.570
Aug-19 1.986
Sep-19 4.206
Oct-19 4.044
Nov-19 2.693
Dec-19 0.491
Jan-20 0.529
Feb-20 0.396
Mar-20 1.100
Apr-20 0.984
May-20 0.953
Jun-20 0.331
Jul-20 0.401
Aug-20 0.558
Sep-20 0.830
Oct-20 0.791
Nov-20 1.623
Dec-20 1.244
Jan-21 1.259
Feb-21 0.728
Mar-21 0.917
Apr-21 0.975
May-21 0.598
Jun-21 0.878
Jul-21 1.453
Aug-21 1.465
Sep-21 1.014
Oct-21 0.531
Nov-21 0.687
Dec-21 4.306
Jan-22 4.131
Feb-22 6.203
Mar-22 2.633
Apr-22 3.495
May-22 1.335
Jun-22 1.614
Jul-22 0.816
Aug-22 1.598
Sep-22 1.191
Oct-22 3.456
Nov-22 2.561
Dec-22 4.155
Jan-23 2.138
Feb-23 2.236
Mar-23 0.970
Apr-23 1.319
May-23 3.333
Jun-23 3.513
Jul-23 5.601
Aug-23 3.634
Sep-23 3.571
Oct-23 3.056
Nov-23 2.933
Dec-23 2.445
Jan-24 0.257
Feb-24 0.188
Mar-24 1.081
Apr-24 1.397
May-24 2.374
Jun-24 2.238
Jul-24 2.684
Aug-24 3.510
Sep-24 3.068

Note: Abandons are 3-month backward-looking moving averages and are in nominal terms. The dotted dropline is at August 2022, the month when the CHIPS and IRA were signed into law.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Dodge Data & Analytics.

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Figure 4: Vintage Effects in Stocks and Starts

Left Panel: (a) Planning Stock by Vintage
Units: Billions of dollars, n.s.a.

  Make Full Screen
Date <1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years >=3 years total
Jan-21 34.5366596 37.1029106 75.432061 23.8850097 170.96
Feb-21 33.3713071 35.3418469 53.8071833 48.2002412 170.72
Mar-21 93.0052234 34.4294924 44.1784039 57.586507 229.20
Apr-21 130.3823357 33.8259752 41.8330158 60.0838415 266.13
May-21 102.7238116 69.4805038 24.7487676 77.4419196 274.40
Jun-21 119.367714 67.50685 17.1716244 84.218542 288.26
Jul-21 125.8608512 56.0088892 25.485235 83.8553687 291.21
Aug-21 127.5396737 57.1135094 26.2125288 82.0993622 292.97
Sep-21 112.9023604 56.3108423 24.2609349 79.3054223 272.78
Oct-21 130.1586161 56.3597619 24.3990266 79.3294283 290.25
Nov-21 166.7785458 55.8245695 25.6254693 80.430434 328.66
Dec-21 174.7753695 58.7840541 24.1010347 76.3159427 333.98
Jan-22 212.5363416 50.4828551 32.4351719 77.2007284 372.66
Feb-22 211.5730787 49.8582006 30.47947 78.2500232 370.16
Mar-22 213.852947 53.8954745 28.6392904 79.0355897 375.42
Apr-22 191.0445792 95.764185 28.0030891 81.1991728 396.01
May-22 209.8500954 65.1491498 63.6213087 81.1638027 419.78
Jun-22 223.4364326 74.4399551 60.8264385 82.5952876 441.30
Jul-22 223.9883431 76.0500895 52.3265975 85.2774086 437.64
Aug-22 344.6710226 72.7880663 53.9350468 85.7856992 557.18
Sep-22 364.6131046 75.9063051 48.1010716 85.8786244 574.50
Oct-22 345.6888036 88.2089294 47.7164085 86.7562113 568.37
Nov-22 319.8354349 121.2176751 49.0068346 87.3740215 577.43
Dec-22 319.0609617 135.1163843 52.2120423 84.5058943 590.90
Jan-23 305.8765616 139.2804031 50.127604 88.9170194 584.20
Feb-23 326.1989687 140.3497695 48.9722296 88.7760496 604.30
Mar-23 362.4495721 139.8189237 27.8147035 91.0754374 621.16
Apr-23 347.8951354 115.4851864 71.1395994 82.0632063 616.58
May-23 334.7245062 121.7151206 60.6543774 95.3592684 612.45
Jun-23 337.9483377 140.309621 62.301332 97.3204287 637.88
Jul-23 331.2247482 155.2867488 67.2648137 95.5748911 649.35
Aug-23 216.2175897 271.3479222 65.42022 104.1552253 657.14
Sep-23 212.5568727 282.1552547 63.699717 101.1436868 659.56
Oct-23 213.3962316 272.7901448 76.2201965 106.1557259 668.56
Nov-23 188.9847295 254.1744546 107.0591353 106.4669755 656.69
Dec-23 179.3030683 253.209934 114.7004964 109.8256021 657.04
Jan-24 177.135491 243.2451018 116.9403541 110.3901928 647.71
Feb-24 157.9378058 262.7848962 116.962281 114.2609935 651.95
Mar-24 141.2882024 298.3278126 121.4161419 117.0610427 678.09
Apr-24 144.4233177 292.5383452 101.6131599 145.0529485 683.63
May-24 141.0722522 285.7252542 106.9926655 140.9284361 674.72
Jun-24 151.5679543 268.375985 123.0919187 144.2728798 687.31
Jul-24 206.4545116 265.4871414 148.1022877 147.3283341 767.37
Aug-24 194.6767378 173.9271287 265.1612896 148.6851866 782.45
Sep-24 203.4509065 170.9694145 271.1497396 149.7802376 795.35

Right Panel: (b) Starts by Vintage
Units: Billions of dollars, n.s.a.

  Make Full Screen
Date 1. 2018 - 2019 2. 2020 3. 2021 4. 2022 5. 2023 - 2024 6. Unobserved Total
Jan-19 0.466 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.210 0.676
Feb-19 0.714 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.238 0.952
Mar-19 1.526 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.682 2.208
Apr-19 1.397 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.525 1.922
May-19 2.439 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.569 3.008
Jun-19 2.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.237 2.243
Jul-19 3.407 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.232 3.639
Aug-19 2.452 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.276 2.728
Sep-19 3.424 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.497 3.921
Oct-19 2.119 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.561 2.680
Nov-19 4.446 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.614 5.060
Dec-19 3.319 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.328 3.647
Jan-20 3.673 0.017 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.263 3.954
Feb-20 1.258 0.024 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.675 1.958
Mar-20 1.328 0.056 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.728 2.112
Apr-20 0.689 0.072 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.767 1.528
May-20 0.878 0.114 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.218 1.210
Jun-20 0.772 0.132 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.221 1.126
Jul-20 0.801 0.154 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.175 1.130
Aug-20 0.723 0.240 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.185 1.148
Sep-20 0.556 0.477 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.147 1.180
Oct-20 0.485 0.654 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.165 1.304
Nov-20 0.157 0.801 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.361 1.318
Dec-20 0.423 0.668 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.346 1.438
Jan-21 0.873 0.622 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.341 1.847
Feb-21 0.951 0.654 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.213 1.831
Mar-21 0.707 0.759 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.242 1.727
Apr-21 0.250 0.744 0.061 0.000 0.000 0.254 1.310
May-21 0.303 0.640 0.627 0.000 0.000 0.411 1.981
Jun-21 0.344 0.528 0.848 0.000 0.000 0.477 2.197
Jul-21 0.604 0.508 1.106 0.000 0.000 0.588 2.806
Aug-21 0.470 0.561 0.741 0.000 0.000 0.450 2.222
Sep-21 0.365 0.454 1.049 0.000 0.000 0.508 2.377
Oct-21 0.582 0.409 3.511 0.000 0.000 0.487 4.988
Nov-21 0.554 0.158 3.441 0.000 0.000 0.460 4.614
Dec-21 0.594 0.328 3.229 0.000 0.000 0.538 4.689
Jan-22 0.074 0.233 1.174 0.017 0.000 0.476 1.973
Feb-22 0.141 0.225 5.186 0.033 0.000 0.446 6.030
Mar-22 0.179 0.187 5.156 0.241 0.000 0.276 6.039
Apr-22 0.163 0.222 4.970 0.294 0.000 0.434 6.083
May-22 0.105 0.223 1.460 0.425 0.000 4.412 6.624
Jun-22 0.041 0.073 1.564 0.282 0.000 4.397 6.357
Jul-22 0.050 0.026 3.721 2.766 0.000 4.218 10.781
Aug-22 0.040 0.084 6.450 2.807 0.000 0.531 9.913
Sep-22 0.189 1.985 6.158 3.286 0.000 0.705 12.323
Oct-22 0.222 1.986 4.416 2.053 0.000 0.744 9.421
Nov-22 0.243 1.983 1.091 2.741 0.000 0.638 6.696
Dec-22 3.005 0.064 1.279 4.377 0.000 1.221 9.946
Jan-23 3.087 0.207 0.631 3.269 0.072 1.196 8.460
Feb-23 3.079 0.163 0.602 3.867 0.092 1.095 8.898
Mar-23 0.162 0.164 0.329 5.305 0.115 0.386 6.462
Apr-23 0.036 0.022 0.273 5.343 0.510 0.527 6.712
May-23 0.022 0.007 0.313 6.225 1.007 0.568 8.142
Jun-23 0.153 0.010 0.299 2.998 1.252 0.698 5.411
Jul-23 0.187 0.009 0.062 2.999 1.037 0.599 4.894
Aug-23 0.263 0.011 0.196 2.521 0.758 0.528 4.278
Sep-23 0.115 0.027 0.198 3.176 0.950 0.381 4.847
Oct-23 0.129 0.027 0.848 5.548 2.113 0.788 9.452
Nov-23 0.082 0.024 0.683 4.389 2.346 0.784 8.309
Dec-23 0.084 0.000 0.674 4.066 3.221 0.878 8.923
Jan-24 0.034 0.000 0.020 1.459 4.294 0.571 6.378
Feb-24 0.006 0.011 1.940 1.921 4.113 0.577 8.568
Mar-24 0.004 0.011 1.965 1.251 3.170 0.553 6.954
Apr-24 0.004 0.011 1.965 1.407 2.163 0.416 5.966
May-24 0.013 0.000 0.057 0.772 2.693 0.421 3.956
Jun-24 0.011 0.002 0.051 0.797 3.050 0.378 4.290
Jul-24 0.057 0.028 0.050 0.789 2.581 0.388 3.892
Aug-24 0.046 0.056 0.028 0.320 2.568 0.408 3.427
Sep-24 0.052 0.053 0.009 0.488 2.121 0.478 3.202

Note: The key for panel (a) identifies the vintages on the chart in order from top to bottom. The dotted dropline is at August 2022, the month when the CHIPS and IRA were signed into law.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Dodge Data & Analytics.

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Last Update: January 14, 2025